Download - The Changing Mix of What Sells in Print - Jonathan Nowell, Nielsen Book

January 2015

THE CHANGING MIX OF WHAT SELLS IN PRINT: HOW EBOOKS HAVE

CHANGED THE PRINT BOOK MARKETPLACE

JONATHAN NOWELL

NIELSEN BOOK PRESIDENT

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AGENDA

• Broad genre shifts • Format impacts • Ebooks by genre • Fiction • Non-Fiction • Juvenile • The bookstore of the future

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US GENRE BREAKDOWN Juvenile has grown from 23% to 37% of total market

Nielsen BookScan

45%

32%

23%

2004

Total AdultNon-Fiction

Total AdultFiction

Total Juvenile

41%

31%

28%

2009


Total AdultFiction

Total Juvenile

40%

23%

37%

2014


Total AdultFiction

Total Juvenile

650 million 635 million

770 million

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UK GENRE BREAKDOWN Children’s has grown from 24% to 35% of total market

Nielsen BookScan

44%

32%

24%

2004

Adult Non-Fiction

Adult Fiction

Children's

38%

34%

28%

2010

Adult Non-Fiction

Adult Fiction

Children's

37%

28%

35%

2014

Adult Non-Fiction

Adult Fiction

Children's

204 million 181 million

229 million

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Adult Fiction

0

50

100

150

200

250

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Mill

ion

s

Mass Market Pbk

Trade Paperback

Hardback

PRINT BOOKS BY FORMAT In Adult Fiction, hardback sales down less than paperback since 2009

Adult Non-Fiction

Nielsen BookScan

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Mill

ion

s

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Quarterly ebook sales by genre

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

20

10

Q1

20

10

Q2

20

10

Q3

20

10

Q4

20

11

Q1

20

11

Q2

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q4

20

12

Q1

20

12

Q2

20

12

Q3

20

12

Q4

20

13

Q1

20

13

Q2

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

14

Q1

20

14

Q2

20

14

Q3

Mill

ion

s

Religious Fiction

Bibles

Juvenile Non-Fiction

Other

Religion Non-Fiction

Juvenile Fiction

Non-Fiction

Fiction

US EBOOKS BY BROAD SECTOR In latest quarter, adult fiction accounts for 65% of ebook sales

PubTrack Digital US

FICTION

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Adult Fiction by category, volume sales

0

50

100

150

200

250

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

s

Western

Action Adventure

Occult/Psychological/Horror

Science Fiction

Religion

Fantasy

Classics

Graphic Novels

Mystery/Detective

Suspense/Thrillers

Romance

General Fiction

LONG TERM CHANGE IN US FICTION Comparing Fiction in print in the pre- and post-ebook world

Nielsen BookScan

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FICTION TRENDS IN TOP CATEGORIES Fantasy has seen largest decline since 2009

Nielsen BookScan

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

s

General Fiction

Romance

Suspense/Thrillers

Mystery/Detective

Graphic Novels

Fantasy

-46%

-20%

-30%

-40%

-27% -58%

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24%

10%

10%

9% 6% 6%

6%

5%

4%

3%

1% 1%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2014

Romance

Mystery & Detective

Thrillers

Suspense

Literary

Fantasy

General

Contemporary Women

FICTION EBOOKS BY CATEGORY Romance started off as highest in the format and has just gotten bigger over the years

19%

13%

15% 6% 6%

8%

8%

3%

4%

3% 1%

1% 0%

4% 0%

2%

1% 1%

0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2010

Share of fiction ebook sales, volume

PubTrack Digital US

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US volume sales, adult fiction

THREE MAINSTAY FICTION AUTHORS Have ebooks affected their print sales?

Nielsen BookScan/PubTrack Digital US

Aggregated unit data for three mainstay – (consistent annual output over the long term).

“Pre-ebook” print 3 years 2008 – 2010

“Post-ebook” print 3 years 2012 – 2014

“ebook” 3 years 2012 – 2014

NON-FICTION

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Adult Non-Fiction by category, volume sales

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

s

House & Home/Gardening

Computers

Humor

Art/Architecture/Design/Photography

Travel

Performing Arts

Crafts/Hobbies/Antiques/Games

Self Help

History/Law/Political Science

Cooking/Entertaining

Business/Economics

Health/Fitness/Medicine/Sports

Biography/Autobiography/Memoir

General Non-Fiction

Reference

Religion/Bibles

DECLINE IN US NON-FICTION LED BY REFERENCE Market decline pre-dates ebook transition

Nielsen BookScan

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SINCE 2007…

Nielsen BookScan

Travel 50%

Reference

37%

Religion/Bibles

43%

Cooking/Entertaining 11%

JUVENILE

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All Juvenile by category, volume sales

IN SPITE OF POST-2009 DIP, JUVENILE SALES UP! 2014 had highest reported sales since records began

Nielsen BookScan

0

50

100

150

200

250

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

s

Social Situations/Family/Health (NF)

Concepts (NF)

Holidays/Festivals/Religion (NF)

Biographies/Autobiographies

Animals (NF)

Education/Reference/Language

Holidays/Festivals/Religion

Concepts

Animals

Classics

History/Sports/People/Places (NF)

Games/Activities/Hobbies

History/Sports/People/Places

Social Situations/Family/Health

Science Fiction/Fantasy/Magic

General

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JUVENILE FICTION

Nielsen BookScan

38%

17% 14% 8%

8%

5% 4% 6%

2004 General

ScienceFiction/Fantasy/Magic

SocialSituations/Family/Health


Classics

Animals

Concepts


30%

29%

16%

7%

7%

4% 3%

4% 2009 General




Classics

Animals

Concepts


30%

26% 16% 8%

5%

5%

5% 5% 2014

General




Classics

Animals

Concepts


109 million

177 million

163 million

2014 sales were up 62% on 2004, 8% on

2009 and 12% on 2013.

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HIGHEST POST-EBOOK PRINT GROWTH CATEGORIES …

Nielsen BookScan

2004 2009 2014

Religion/Bibles

Juvenile Non-Fiction

9% 53%

8%

44% 28%

Juvenile Fiction 49%

Performing Arts 5% 12%

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POST EBOOK DECLINE DOMINATED BY FICTION

Nielsen BookScan

2004 2009 2014

Fantasy

General Fiction

Mystery/Detective

Travel

43% 58%

34% 46%

18% 40%

10% 37%

Craft/Hobbies/Games 16% 33%

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BOOK STORE OF THE FUTURE … DESIGNED TO INSPIRE

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… AND TO HAVE FUN

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… DURING THE DAY

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…OR AT NIGHT

January 2015

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