The Danube Water NexusBuilding the evidence base of the
Water–Agriculture–Energy-Ecosystems Nexus
Giovanni Bidoglioand the many colleagues across
JRC-IES, IPTS, IET
• Matching availability and demand of water needs to be evaluated in terms of competing objectives of the different sectors
• Look at the implications for water resources allocation
• Agriculture and energy as the priority sectors in which water saving and efficiency should be improved in order to avoid scarcity
Agriculture
Environment
Tourism Drinking water
Industry
Energy
Sizing future water gapsProjected future water demand and available supply
• Deliver integrated impact assessments of water resources in the face of increasing trends of global population, urbanisation, pollution, over-exploitation, climate change
• Focus on Europe and Africa: Danube-Nigerriver basins and the Mediterranean region as pilot areas
Objectives of the project
The Danube as pilot area to support the implementation of the Danube Strategy and test actions identified in the
2012 Impact Assessment of the EU Blueprint to Safeguard Europe’s water resources
Sharing efforts towards common end products
1. Scenarios of environmental and economic impacts of alternative water allocation measures across competing water-using sectors, including an assessment of the provision/valuation of ecosystem services
2. Methodology for modelling of water resources in the Danube river basin, integrating quantity, quality, ecology and hydro-morphology, in coordination with other tools at national and river basin level and extension to non-EU countries of the Danube Region
3. Supporting efforts of countries and international cooperation bodies in the implementation process of the WFD and planning of medium and long-term actions for the 2nd cycle of River Basin Management
Biophysical assessment
Surface hydrology /
groundwater hydrogeology
Water and agricultural land
management
Water quality, ecology, hydro-
morphology
Environmental and economic impacts of alternative options of Water Allocation:
Target 2030-2050
Benchmarking regional
knowledge
Link to the Danube Reference Spatial Data Infrastructure
DRSDI
Danube Water-Agriculture-Energy-Ecosystems Nexus (Danube Water Nexus)
Multi-objectives optimization
and uncertainty-sensitivity analyses
Economic assessmentEnergy, industry, agricultural demand / production / trade /
prices / income effects of water use
Non-market valuation of ecosystem
services
Survey of existing water uses
Socio-economic survey
Water quality survey
Analysis of tradeoffs and stakeholder negotiation
Participatory scenario buildingLand use scenarios
LUMP
Agro-economic scenarios
CAPRI
Energy scenarios
POLES
Bias-corrected climate scenarios
ENSEMBLE
Marcos Gimeno Gutiérrez and Roberto Lacal Arántegui, 2013
Assessing water uses for hydropower generation
Draft
Acquiring water quality data
N runoff
Wastewatertreatment
Stream routing, lakes & reservoirs
along river network5km grid
in-stream decay processes
N leaching
P leaching
EPIC
P runoff
A suite of biophysical models
Surfacerunoff
Percolation
Preferential flow
LISFLOOD
Land cover, plant growth
Nutrients
Source apportionment
GREEN
Managementpractices
Groundwaterextraction
Water use by various sectors
Agriculturalmanagement
• Kinematic wave routing of river discharge using the LISFLOOD calibration parameterization (also used in the operational EFAS flood warning system)
• Routines to simulate the effects of lakes and reservoirs
• Daily routing of surface and river N and P (as a function of flow velocity)
• Removal of Nitrogen and Phosphorous (as a function of water temperature, water depth and flow velocity, sediment characteristics derived from geological maps)
• Other physical and (bio)chemical processes, e.g. pesticides
• Geospatialregressionbetween pressures from agriculture, wastewatertreatment plants and water quality measurements
• N and P retention in rivers and lakes
Residential water
0
2
4
6
8
50 60 70 80 90 100 110
euro
cent
/m3
water use in (m3)
Residential water demand
Cost functions
Wastewater treatment
WWTP cost as function of share tertiary treatment
Irrigation water
Total quantityof nitrogenretainedin river
catchments
Calculate the size (ha)
of constructedwetlands thatremove an
equal N amount
Calculate the costs forconstructingwetlands of
thissize
Free Water System (FWS) Subsurface Flow System (SSF)
Nature providing multiple ecosystem servicesValuation of water purification services (Nitrogen retention) by
using replacement costs of constructed wetlands
• CAP scenarios (post-2013 CAP reform, abolition of sugar quota)
• Trade policy scenarios (trade liberalization; bilateral trade agreements)
• Baseline uncertainty scenarios (contribution to DG AGRI outlook )
• Biofuel policy scenarios (biofuel quota obligations; tax policy; import tariffs; availability 2nd generation biofuels)
• GHG emission scenarios (mitigation scenarios, abatement scenarios)
• Yield effects of climate change
Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Modelling System: CAPRI scenarios
Energy scenarios
A world simulation model for the analysis of energy systems and their global environmental impacts to 2050
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Gt
CO
2
Energy savings
Fossil fuel switch
Renewable energies
Nuclear energy
Carbon sequestration
GHG reduction scenario
avoid
ed e
mis
sions
Typical applications
•Global energy demand/supply scenarios with high regional detail
•Global GHG emission reduction pathways
•Technology outlooks
•Impacts of technological change and R&D
Decomposition of global CO2 emission reductions between base/reduction case
Source: POLES model; Russ et al., 2007
POLES: Prospective Outlook on Long Term Energy Systems
Water resources allocation: the need for tradeoff analyses
Optimising targets for efficient water use in terms of impacts of selected combinations of measures
and costs of achieving a desired objective
Optimal tradeoff
32%
93%
57%
Clean water Water efficiency in agriculture
•New wastewater treatment plants•P-free detergents•Optimum fertiliser and manure application
•N-fixing winter crops•Change of diet•Infrastructure for removal of emerging pollutants
•Irrigation management•Change crop practices•Convert land to grassland•Grassed waterways•Aquifer recharge and water table management
Water retention measures Water supply and recycling•Riparian wetlands along rivers•Introduce flood retention polders•Afforestation in mountainous and riparian areas
•Greening urban environments•Remeandering•Constructing dams and reservoirs
•Water efficiency in power generation•Improvement in industrial processes•Leakage reduction and water-efficient buildings
•Desalination•Water reuse and recycling•Large-scale water-transfer infrastructures
Measures affecting water availability and demand
Optimisation including evaluation of costs of the measures is run for e.g. region 10 (Atlantic catchments of France) for a package of 5 mixed scenarios
• A - Afforestation• CP -Crop practices• IE - Irrigation efficiency• UG - Urban greening (25%)• WSH - Water saving in households• LR - Leakage reduction (50%)
Which effects for what measures?
21 regions based on river basins,
climatology, socio-economic
conditions
Co
st o
f im
ple
men
tati
on
Improvement of environmental flow
Effects of measures on e.g. environmental flow
A UG CP IE WSH LR0.084 0.120 0.992 0.484 0.661 0.3600.084 0.087 1.000 0.484 0.659 0.3600.082 0.089 1.000 0.487 0.659 0.3600.138 0.089 0.995 0.516 0.660 0.3630.084 0.120 0.992 0.484 0.661 0.3600.023 0.114 0.929 0.485 0.652 0.3200.036 0.115 0.925 0.484 0.734 0.3230.023 0.126 0.879 0.474 0.652 0.308
A UG CP IE WSH LR0.351 0.766 0.541 0.041 0.131 0.1630.333 0.785 0.511 0.029 0.167 0.161
Non-efficient strategies
Efficient strategies
Relative impacts of measures on flooding for region 11 (Danube)
A joint endeavour• Building on existing experience in the Danube
region• Twinning with national projects and international
initiatives
Conference Bratislava
World Water Forum 2015,
Korea
Final report Database
development
Scenarioexpert
meeting
Economicexpert
meetingModelling
Tradeoffanalyses
Biophysicalexpert
meeting
Thank you for your attention