THEDECISIONBOOKFIFTYMODELSFORSTRATEGICTHINKING
MikaelKrogerusRomanTschaumlppeler
TranslatedbyJennyPieningWITHILLUSTRATIONSBYPHILIPEARNHART
FirstpublishedinGreatBritainin2011byPROFILEBOOKSLTD3AExmouthHouse
PineStreetLondonEC1R0JH
wwwprofilebookscom
FirstpublishedinSwitzerlandbyKeinampAberAGZurich
CopyrightcopyKeinundAber2008
13579108642
PrintedandboundinItalybyLEGOPRINTSpaLavis
Themoralrightoftheauthorhasbeenasserted
AllrightsreservedWithoutlimitingtherightsundercopyrightreservedabovenopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedstoredorintroducedintoaretrievalsystemortransmittedin
anyformorbyanymeans(electronicmechanicalphotocopyingrecordingorotherwise)withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionof
boththecopyrightownerandthepublisherofthisbook
ACIPcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary
ISBN9781846683954eISBN9781847654465
CONTENTS
Instructionsforuse
HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF
TheEisenhowermatrixHowtoworkmoreefficientlyTheSWOTanalysisHowtofindtherightsolutionTheBCGboxHowtoevaluatecostsandbenefitsTheprojectportfoliomatrixHowtomaintainanoverviewTheJohnWhitmoremodelAmIpursuingtherightgoalTherubberbandmodelHowtodealwithadilemmaThefeedbackmodelDealingwithotherpeoplersquoscomplimentsandcriticismsThefamilytreemodelThecontactsyoushouldmaintainThemorphologicalboxandSCAMPERWhyyouhavetobestructuredtobe
creativeTheEsquiregiftmodelHowmuchtospendongiftsTheconsequencesmodelWhyitisimportanttomakedecisionspromptlyTheconflictresolutionmodelHowtoresolveaconflictelegantlyThecrossroadsmodelSowhatnext
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
TheflowmodelWhatmakesyouhappyTheJohariwindowWhatothersknowaboutyouThe cognitive dissonance modelWhy people smoke when they know itrsquos
unhealthyThemusicmatrixWhatyourtasteinmusicsaysaboutyouTheunimaginablemodelWhatdoyoubelieveinthatyoucannotproveTheUffeElbaeligkmodelHowtogettoknowyourselfThefashionmodelHowwedressTheenergymodelAreyoulivinginthehereandnowTheSuperMemomodelHowtoremembereverythingyouhaveeverlearnedThepoliticalcompassWhatpoliticalpartiesstandfor
The personal performance model How to recognise whether you shouldchangeyourjob
Themaking-ofmodelTodetermineyourfuturefirstunderstandyourpastThepersonalpotentialtrapWhyitisbetternottoexpectanythingThehypecycleHowtoidentifythenextbigthingThesubtlesignalsmodelWhynuancesmatterThenetworktargetmodelWhatyourfriendssayaboutyouThesuperficialknowledgemodelEverythingyoudonrsquotneedtoknow
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
TheSwisscheesemodelHowmistakeshappenTheMaslowpyramidsWhatyouactuallyneedwhatyouactuallywantThinkingoutsidetheboxHowtocomeupwithbrilliantideasTheSinusMilieuandBourdieumodelsWhereyoubelongThedouble-looplearningmodelHowtolearnfromyourmistakesTheAImodelWhatkindofdiscussiontypeareyouThesmall-worldmodelHowsmalltheworldreallyisTheParetoprincipleWhy80percentoftheoutputisachievedwith20per
centoftheinputThelong-tailmodelHowtheinternetistransformingtheeconomyThe Monte Carlo simulationWhy we can only approximate a definitive
outcomeTheblackswanmodelWhyyourexperiencesdonrsquotmakeyouanywiserThechasmndashthediffusionmodelWhyeverybodyhasaniPodTheblackboxmodelWhyfaithisreplacingknowledgeThestatusmodelHowtorecogniseawinnerTheprisonerrsquosdilemmaWhenisitworthtrustingsomeone
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
TheDrexlerndashSibbet team performancemodelHow to turn a group into ateam
TheteammodelIsyourteamuptothejobThegap-in-the-marketmodelHowtorecogniseabankableideaTheHerseyndashBlanchardmodel (situational leadership)How to successfully
manageyouremployeesTherole-playingmodelHowtochangeyourownpointofviewThe result optimisation modelWhy the printer always breaks down just
beforeadeadlineTheworldrsquosnexttopmodel
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DrawinglessonDrawinglessonMymodels
APPENDIX
BibliographyIllustrationcreditsFinalnoteThanksTheauthors
BESTOFTHEBLOGndashEBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
AhAFriendRequestButWhoTheHellIsBennoBetterNeverThanLateHowWeBecameWhatWeAreStarWarsTheFace-ItBookWhatrsquosTheBestAndWhatrsquosTheRightIdeaInTheLongRun
INSTRUCTIONSFORUSE
WHYYOUSHOULDREADTHISBOOK
Thisbookhasbeenwrittenforanyonewhohas todealwithpeopleonadailybasisWhetheryouareateacheraprofessorapilotoratopmanageryouwillbeconfrontedby thesamequestions timeandagainHowdoImake the rightdecisionHowcan Imotivatemyself ormy teamHowcan I change thingsHowcanIworkmoreefficientlyAndonamorepersonal levelWhatdomyfriendsrevealaboutmeDoIliveinthehereandnowWhatdoIwant
WHATYOUWILLFINDINTHISBOOK
Thefiftybestdecision-makingmodelsndashwell-knownandnotsowell-knownndashthatwillhelpyou tackle thesequestionsaredescribed inwordsanddiagramsDonrsquotexpectstraightanswersbepreparedtobetestedExpectfoodforthoughtYouwillacquirethekindofknowledgewithwhichyoucanimpressfriendsandcolleagues What is a black swan What is a long tail What is the Paretoprinciple Why do we always forget everything How should I behave inconflictsituations
HOWTOUSETHISBOOK
ThisisaworkbookYoucancopyoutthemodelsfillthemincrossthemoutanddevelopandimprovethemWhetheryouneedtoprepareforapresentationor carry out an annual performance review whether a difficult decision liesaheadof youor a prolongeddispute is nowbehindyouwhether youwant toreassessyourbusinessideaorgettoknowyourselfbetterndashthisbookwillguideyou
WHATISADECISION-MAKINGMODEL
Themodelsinthisbookfulfilthefollowingcriteria
bull They simplify they do not embrace every aspect of reality but onlyincludethoseaspectsthatseemrelevant
bullTheyarepragmatictheyfocusonwhatisuseful
bullTheysumuptheyareexecutivesummariesofcomplexinterrelations
bullTheyarevisualthroughimagesanddiagramstheyconveyconceptsthat
aredifficulttoexplaininwords
bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem
bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem
Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors
WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS
Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess
Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)
Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit
HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF
THEEISENHOWERMATRIX
HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY
The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent
Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions
Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist
BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter
Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith
THESWOTANALYSIS
HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION
With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit
ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather
thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats
What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess
ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley
ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday
THEBCGBOX
HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
FirstpublishedinGreatBritainin2011byPROFILEBOOKSLTD3AExmouthHouse
PineStreetLondonEC1R0JH
wwwprofilebookscom
FirstpublishedinSwitzerlandbyKeinampAberAGZurich
CopyrightcopyKeinundAber2008
13579108642
PrintedandboundinItalybyLEGOPRINTSpaLavis
Themoralrightoftheauthorhasbeenasserted
AllrightsreservedWithoutlimitingtherightsundercopyrightreservedabovenopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedstoredorintroducedintoaretrievalsystemortransmittedin
anyformorbyanymeans(electronicmechanicalphotocopyingrecordingorotherwise)withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionof
boththecopyrightownerandthepublisherofthisbook
ACIPcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary
ISBN9781846683954eISBN9781847654465
CONTENTS
Instructionsforuse
HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF
TheEisenhowermatrixHowtoworkmoreefficientlyTheSWOTanalysisHowtofindtherightsolutionTheBCGboxHowtoevaluatecostsandbenefitsTheprojectportfoliomatrixHowtomaintainanoverviewTheJohnWhitmoremodelAmIpursuingtherightgoalTherubberbandmodelHowtodealwithadilemmaThefeedbackmodelDealingwithotherpeoplersquoscomplimentsandcriticismsThefamilytreemodelThecontactsyoushouldmaintainThemorphologicalboxandSCAMPERWhyyouhavetobestructuredtobe
creativeTheEsquiregiftmodelHowmuchtospendongiftsTheconsequencesmodelWhyitisimportanttomakedecisionspromptlyTheconflictresolutionmodelHowtoresolveaconflictelegantlyThecrossroadsmodelSowhatnext
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
TheflowmodelWhatmakesyouhappyTheJohariwindowWhatothersknowaboutyouThe cognitive dissonance modelWhy people smoke when they know itrsquos
unhealthyThemusicmatrixWhatyourtasteinmusicsaysaboutyouTheunimaginablemodelWhatdoyoubelieveinthatyoucannotproveTheUffeElbaeligkmodelHowtogettoknowyourselfThefashionmodelHowwedressTheenergymodelAreyoulivinginthehereandnowTheSuperMemomodelHowtoremembereverythingyouhaveeverlearnedThepoliticalcompassWhatpoliticalpartiesstandfor
The personal performance model How to recognise whether you shouldchangeyourjob
Themaking-ofmodelTodetermineyourfuturefirstunderstandyourpastThepersonalpotentialtrapWhyitisbetternottoexpectanythingThehypecycleHowtoidentifythenextbigthingThesubtlesignalsmodelWhynuancesmatterThenetworktargetmodelWhatyourfriendssayaboutyouThesuperficialknowledgemodelEverythingyoudonrsquotneedtoknow
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
TheSwisscheesemodelHowmistakeshappenTheMaslowpyramidsWhatyouactuallyneedwhatyouactuallywantThinkingoutsidetheboxHowtocomeupwithbrilliantideasTheSinusMilieuandBourdieumodelsWhereyoubelongThedouble-looplearningmodelHowtolearnfromyourmistakesTheAImodelWhatkindofdiscussiontypeareyouThesmall-worldmodelHowsmalltheworldreallyisTheParetoprincipleWhy80percentoftheoutputisachievedwith20per
centoftheinputThelong-tailmodelHowtheinternetistransformingtheeconomyThe Monte Carlo simulationWhy we can only approximate a definitive
outcomeTheblackswanmodelWhyyourexperiencesdonrsquotmakeyouanywiserThechasmndashthediffusionmodelWhyeverybodyhasaniPodTheblackboxmodelWhyfaithisreplacingknowledgeThestatusmodelHowtorecogniseawinnerTheprisonerrsquosdilemmaWhenisitworthtrustingsomeone
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
TheDrexlerndashSibbet team performancemodelHow to turn a group into ateam
TheteammodelIsyourteamuptothejobThegap-in-the-marketmodelHowtorecogniseabankableideaTheHerseyndashBlanchardmodel (situational leadership)How to successfully
manageyouremployeesTherole-playingmodelHowtochangeyourownpointofviewThe result optimisation modelWhy the printer always breaks down just
beforeadeadlineTheworldrsquosnexttopmodel
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DrawinglessonDrawinglessonMymodels
APPENDIX
BibliographyIllustrationcreditsFinalnoteThanksTheauthors
BESTOFTHEBLOGndashEBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
AhAFriendRequestButWhoTheHellIsBennoBetterNeverThanLateHowWeBecameWhatWeAreStarWarsTheFace-ItBookWhatrsquosTheBestAndWhatrsquosTheRightIdeaInTheLongRun
INSTRUCTIONSFORUSE
WHYYOUSHOULDREADTHISBOOK
Thisbookhasbeenwrittenforanyonewhohas todealwithpeopleonadailybasisWhetheryouareateacheraprofessorapilotoratopmanageryouwillbeconfrontedby thesamequestions timeandagainHowdoImake the rightdecisionHowcan Imotivatemyself ormy teamHowcan I change thingsHowcanIworkmoreefficientlyAndonamorepersonal levelWhatdomyfriendsrevealaboutmeDoIliveinthehereandnowWhatdoIwant
WHATYOUWILLFINDINTHISBOOK
Thefiftybestdecision-makingmodelsndashwell-knownandnotsowell-knownndashthatwillhelpyou tackle thesequestionsaredescribed inwordsanddiagramsDonrsquotexpectstraightanswersbepreparedtobetestedExpectfoodforthoughtYouwillacquirethekindofknowledgewithwhichyoucanimpressfriendsandcolleagues What is a black swan What is a long tail What is the Paretoprinciple Why do we always forget everything How should I behave inconflictsituations
HOWTOUSETHISBOOK
ThisisaworkbookYoucancopyoutthemodelsfillthemincrossthemoutanddevelopandimprovethemWhetheryouneedtoprepareforapresentationor carry out an annual performance review whether a difficult decision liesaheadof youor a prolongeddispute is nowbehindyouwhether youwant toreassessyourbusinessideaorgettoknowyourselfbetterndashthisbookwillguideyou
WHATISADECISION-MAKINGMODEL
Themodelsinthisbookfulfilthefollowingcriteria
bull They simplify they do not embrace every aspect of reality but onlyincludethoseaspectsthatseemrelevant
bullTheyarepragmatictheyfocusonwhatisuseful
bullTheysumuptheyareexecutivesummariesofcomplexinterrelations
bullTheyarevisualthroughimagesanddiagramstheyconveyconceptsthat
aredifficulttoexplaininwords
bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem
bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem
Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors
WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS
Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess
Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)
Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit
HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF
THEEISENHOWERMATRIX
HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY
The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent
Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions
Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist
BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter
Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith
THESWOTANALYSIS
HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION
With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit
ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather
thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats
What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess
ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley
ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday
THEBCGBOX
HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
CONTENTS
Instructionsforuse
HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF
TheEisenhowermatrixHowtoworkmoreefficientlyTheSWOTanalysisHowtofindtherightsolutionTheBCGboxHowtoevaluatecostsandbenefitsTheprojectportfoliomatrixHowtomaintainanoverviewTheJohnWhitmoremodelAmIpursuingtherightgoalTherubberbandmodelHowtodealwithadilemmaThefeedbackmodelDealingwithotherpeoplersquoscomplimentsandcriticismsThefamilytreemodelThecontactsyoushouldmaintainThemorphologicalboxandSCAMPERWhyyouhavetobestructuredtobe
creativeTheEsquiregiftmodelHowmuchtospendongiftsTheconsequencesmodelWhyitisimportanttomakedecisionspromptlyTheconflictresolutionmodelHowtoresolveaconflictelegantlyThecrossroadsmodelSowhatnext
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
TheflowmodelWhatmakesyouhappyTheJohariwindowWhatothersknowaboutyouThe cognitive dissonance modelWhy people smoke when they know itrsquos
unhealthyThemusicmatrixWhatyourtasteinmusicsaysaboutyouTheunimaginablemodelWhatdoyoubelieveinthatyoucannotproveTheUffeElbaeligkmodelHowtogettoknowyourselfThefashionmodelHowwedressTheenergymodelAreyoulivinginthehereandnowTheSuperMemomodelHowtoremembereverythingyouhaveeverlearnedThepoliticalcompassWhatpoliticalpartiesstandfor
The personal performance model How to recognise whether you shouldchangeyourjob
Themaking-ofmodelTodetermineyourfuturefirstunderstandyourpastThepersonalpotentialtrapWhyitisbetternottoexpectanythingThehypecycleHowtoidentifythenextbigthingThesubtlesignalsmodelWhynuancesmatterThenetworktargetmodelWhatyourfriendssayaboutyouThesuperficialknowledgemodelEverythingyoudonrsquotneedtoknow
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
TheSwisscheesemodelHowmistakeshappenTheMaslowpyramidsWhatyouactuallyneedwhatyouactuallywantThinkingoutsidetheboxHowtocomeupwithbrilliantideasTheSinusMilieuandBourdieumodelsWhereyoubelongThedouble-looplearningmodelHowtolearnfromyourmistakesTheAImodelWhatkindofdiscussiontypeareyouThesmall-worldmodelHowsmalltheworldreallyisTheParetoprincipleWhy80percentoftheoutputisachievedwith20per
centoftheinputThelong-tailmodelHowtheinternetistransformingtheeconomyThe Monte Carlo simulationWhy we can only approximate a definitive
outcomeTheblackswanmodelWhyyourexperiencesdonrsquotmakeyouanywiserThechasmndashthediffusionmodelWhyeverybodyhasaniPodTheblackboxmodelWhyfaithisreplacingknowledgeThestatusmodelHowtorecogniseawinnerTheprisonerrsquosdilemmaWhenisitworthtrustingsomeone
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
TheDrexlerndashSibbet team performancemodelHow to turn a group into ateam
TheteammodelIsyourteamuptothejobThegap-in-the-marketmodelHowtorecogniseabankableideaTheHerseyndashBlanchardmodel (situational leadership)How to successfully
manageyouremployeesTherole-playingmodelHowtochangeyourownpointofviewThe result optimisation modelWhy the printer always breaks down just
beforeadeadlineTheworldrsquosnexttopmodel
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DrawinglessonDrawinglessonMymodels
APPENDIX
BibliographyIllustrationcreditsFinalnoteThanksTheauthors
BESTOFTHEBLOGndashEBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
AhAFriendRequestButWhoTheHellIsBennoBetterNeverThanLateHowWeBecameWhatWeAreStarWarsTheFace-ItBookWhatrsquosTheBestAndWhatrsquosTheRightIdeaInTheLongRun
INSTRUCTIONSFORUSE
WHYYOUSHOULDREADTHISBOOK
Thisbookhasbeenwrittenforanyonewhohas todealwithpeopleonadailybasisWhetheryouareateacheraprofessorapilotoratopmanageryouwillbeconfrontedby thesamequestions timeandagainHowdoImake the rightdecisionHowcan Imotivatemyself ormy teamHowcan I change thingsHowcanIworkmoreefficientlyAndonamorepersonal levelWhatdomyfriendsrevealaboutmeDoIliveinthehereandnowWhatdoIwant
WHATYOUWILLFINDINTHISBOOK
Thefiftybestdecision-makingmodelsndashwell-knownandnotsowell-knownndashthatwillhelpyou tackle thesequestionsaredescribed inwordsanddiagramsDonrsquotexpectstraightanswersbepreparedtobetestedExpectfoodforthoughtYouwillacquirethekindofknowledgewithwhichyoucanimpressfriendsandcolleagues What is a black swan What is a long tail What is the Paretoprinciple Why do we always forget everything How should I behave inconflictsituations
HOWTOUSETHISBOOK
ThisisaworkbookYoucancopyoutthemodelsfillthemincrossthemoutanddevelopandimprovethemWhetheryouneedtoprepareforapresentationor carry out an annual performance review whether a difficult decision liesaheadof youor a prolongeddispute is nowbehindyouwhether youwant toreassessyourbusinessideaorgettoknowyourselfbetterndashthisbookwillguideyou
WHATISADECISION-MAKINGMODEL
Themodelsinthisbookfulfilthefollowingcriteria
bull They simplify they do not embrace every aspect of reality but onlyincludethoseaspectsthatseemrelevant
bullTheyarepragmatictheyfocusonwhatisuseful
bullTheysumuptheyareexecutivesummariesofcomplexinterrelations
bullTheyarevisualthroughimagesanddiagramstheyconveyconceptsthat
aredifficulttoexplaininwords
bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem
bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem
Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors
WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS
Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess
Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)
Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit
HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF
THEEISENHOWERMATRIX
HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY
The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent
Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions
Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist
BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter
Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith
THESWOTANALYSIS
HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION
With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit
ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather
thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats
What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess
ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley
ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday
THEBCGBOX
HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
The personal performance model How to recognise whether you shouldchangeyourjob
Themaking-ofmodelTodetermineyourfuturefirstunderstandyourpastThepersonalpotentialtrapWhyitisbetternottoexpectanythingThehypecycleHowtoidentifythenextbigthingThesubtlesignalsmodelWhynuancesmatterThenetworktargetmodelWhatyourfriendssayaboutyouThesuperficialknowledgemodelEverythingyoudonrsquotneedtoknow
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
TheSwisscheesemodelHowmistakeshappenTheMaslowpyramidsWhatyouactuallyneedwhatyouactuallywantThinkingoutsidetheboxHowtocomeupwithbrilliantideasTheSinusMilieuandBourdieumodelsWhereyoubelongThedouble-looplearningmodelHowtolearnfromyourmistakesTheAImodelWhatkindofdiscussiontypeareyouThesmall-worldmodelHowsmalltheworldreallyisTheParetoprincipleWhy80percentoftheoutputisachievedwith20per
centoftheinputThelong-tailmodelHowtheinternetistransformingtheeconomyThe Monte Carlo simulationWhy we can only approximate a definitive
outcomeTheblackswanmodelWhyyourexperiencesdonrsquotmakeyouanywiserThechasmndashthediffusionmodelWhyeverybodyhasaniPodTheblackboxmodelWhyfaithisreplacingknowledgeThestatusmodelHowtorecogniseawinnerTheprisonerrsquosdilemmaWhenisitworthtrustingsomeone
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
TheDrexlerndashSibbet team performancemodelHow to turn a group into ateam
TheteammodelIsyourteamuptothejobThegap-in-the-marketmodelHowtorecogniseabankableideaTheHerseyndashBlanchardmodel (situational leadership)How to successfully
manageyouremployeesTherole-playingmodelHowtochangeyourownpointofviewThe result optimisation modelWhy the printer always breaks down just
beforeadeadlineTheworldrsquosnexttopmodel
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DrawinglessonDrawinglessonMymodels
APPENDIX
BibliographyIllustrationcreditsFinalnoteThanksTheauthors
BESTOFTHEBLOGndashEBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
AhAFriendRequestButWhoTheHellIsBennoBetterNeverThanLateHowWeBecameWhatWeAreStarWarsTheFace-ItBookWhatrsquosTheBestAndWhatrsquosTheRightIdeaInTheLongRun
INSTRUCTIONSFORUSE
WHYYOUSHOULDREADTHISBOOK
Thisbookhasbeenwrittenforanyonewhohas todealwithpeopleonadailybasisWhetheryouareateacheraprofessorapilotoratopmanageryouwillbeconfrontedby thesamequestions timeandagainHowdoImake the rightdecisionHowcan Imotivatemyself ormy teamHowcan I change thingsHowcanIworkmoreefficientlyAndonamorepersonal levelWhatdomyfriendsrevealaboutmeDoIliveinthehereandnowWhatdoIwant
WHATYOUWILLFINDINTHISBOOK
Thefiftybestdecision-makingmodelsndashwell-knownandnotsowell-knownndashthatwillhelpyou tackle thesequestionsaredescribed inwordsanddiagramsDonrsquotexpectstraightanswersbepreparedtobetestedExpectfoodforthoughtYouwillacquirethekindofknowledgewithwhichyoucanimpressfriendsandcolleagues What is a black swan What is a long tail What is the Paretoprinciple Why do we always forget everything How should I behave inconflictsituations
HOWTOUSETHISBOOK
ThisisaworkbookYoucancopyoutthemodelsfillthemincrossthemoutanddevelopandimprovethemWhetheryouneedtoprepareforapresentationor carry out an annual performance review whether a difficult decision liesaheadof youor a prolongeddispute is nowbehindyouwhether youwant toreassessyourbusinessideaorgettoknowyourselfbetterndashthisbookwillguideyou
WHATISADECISION-MAKINGMODEL
Themodelsinthisbookfulfilthefollowingcriteria
bull They simplify they do not embrace every aspect of reality but onlyincludethoseaspectsthatseemrelevant
bullTheyarepragmatictheyfocusonwhatisuseful
bullTheysumuptheyareexecutivesummariesofcomplexinterrelations
bullTheyarevisualthroughimagesanddiagramstheyconveyconceptsthat
aredifficulttoexplaininwords
bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem
bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem
Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors
WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS
Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess
Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)
Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit
HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF
THEEISENHOWERMATRIX
HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY
The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent
Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions
Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist
BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter
Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith
THESWOTANALYSIS
HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION
With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit
ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather
thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats
What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess
ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley
ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday
THEBCGBOX
HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
beforeadeadlineTheworldrsquosnexttopmodel
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DrawinglessonDrawinglessonMymodels
APPENDIX
BibliographyIllustrationcreditsFinalnoteThanksTheauthors
BESTOFTHEBLOGndashEBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
AhAFriendRequestButWhoTheHellIsBennoBetterNeverThanLateHowWeBecameWhatWeAreStarWarsTheFace-ItBookWhatrsquosTheBestAndWhatrsquosTheRightIdeaInTheLongRun
INSTRUCTIONSFORUSE
WHYYOUSHOULDREADTHISBOOK
Thisbookhasbeenwrittenforanyonewhohas todealwithpeopleonadailybasisWhetheryouareateacheraprofessorapilotoratopmanageryouwillbeconfrontedby thesamequestions timeandagainHowdoImake the rightdecisionHowcan Imotivatemyself ormy teamHowcan I change thingsHowcanIworkmoreefficientlyAndonamorepersonal levelWhatdomyfriendsrevealaboutmeDoIliveinthehereandnowWhatdoIwant
WHATYOUWILLFINDINTHISBOOK
Thefiftybestdecision-makingmodelsndashwell-knownandnotsowell-knownndashthatwillhelpyou tackle thesequestionsaredescribed inwordsanddiagramsDonrsquotexpectstraightanswersbepreparedtobetestedExpectfoodforthoughtYouwillacquirethekindofknowledgewithwhichyoucanimpressfriendsandcolleagues What is a black swan What is a long tail What is the Paretoprinciple Why do we always forget everything How should I behave inconflictsituations
HOWTOUSETHISBOOK
ThisisaworkbookYoucancopyoutthemodelsfillthemincrossthemoutanddevelopandimprovethemWhetheryouneedtoprepareforapresentationor carry out an annual performance review whether a difficult decision liesaheadof youor a prolongeddispute is nowbehindyouwhether youwant toreassessyourbusinessideaorgettoknowyourselfbetterndashthisbookwillguideyou
WHATISADECISION-MAKINGMODEL
Themodelsinthisbookfulfilthefollowingcriteria
bull They simplify they do not embrace every aspect of reality but onlyincludethoseaspectsthatseemrelevant
bullTheyarepragmatictheyfocusonwhatisuseful
bullTheysumuptheyareexecutivesummariesofcomplexinterrelations
bullTheyarevisualthroughimagesanddiagramstheyconveyconceptsthat
aredifficulttoexplaininwords
bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem
bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem
Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors
WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS
Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess
Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)
Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit
HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF
THEEISENHOWERMATRIX
HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY
The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent
Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions
Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist
BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter
Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith
THESWOTANALYSIS
HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION
With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit
ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather
thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats
What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess
ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley
ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday
THEBCGBOX
HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
WHATYOUWILLFINDINTHISBOOK
Thefiftybestdecision-makingmodelsndashwell-knownandnotsowell-knownndashthatwillhelpyou tackle thesequestionsaredescribed inwordsanddiagramsDonrsquotexpectstraightanswersbepreparedtobetestedExpectfoodforthoughtYouwillacquirethekindofknowledgewithwhichyoucanimpressfriendsandcolleagues What is a black swan What is a long tail What is the Paretoprinciple Why do we always forget everything How should I behave inconflictsituations
HOWTOUSETHISBOOK
ThisisaworkbookYoucancopyoutthemodelsfillthemincrossthemoutanddevelopandimprovethemWhetheryouneedtoprepareforapresentationor carry out an annual performance review whether a difficult decision liesaheadof youor a prolongeddispute is nowbehindyouwhether youwant toreassessyourbusinessideaorgettoknowyourselfbetterndashthisbookwillguideyou
WHATISADECISION-MAKINGMODEL
Themodelsinthisbookfulfilthefollowingcriteria
bull They simplify they do not embrace every aspect of reality but onlyincludethoseaspectsthatseemrelevant
bullTheyarepragmatictheyfocusonwhatisuseful
bullTheysumuptheyareexecutivesummariesofcomplexinterrelations
bullTheyarevisualthroughimagesanddiagramstheyconveyconceptsthat
aredifficulttoexplaininwords
bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem
bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem
Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors
WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS
Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess
Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)
Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit
HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF
THEEISENHOWERMATRIX
HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY
The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent
Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions
Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist
BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter
Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith
THESWOTANALYSIS
HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION
With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit
ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather
thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats
What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess
ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley
ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday
THEBCGBOX
HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
aredifficulttoexplaininwords
bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem
bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem
Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors
WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS
Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess
Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)
Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit
HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF
THEEISENHOWERMATRIX
HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY
The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent
Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions
Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist
BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter
Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith
THESWOTANALYSIS
HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION
With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit
ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather
thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats
What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess
ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley
ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday
THEBCGBOX
HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF
THEEISENHOWERMATRIX
HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY
The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent
Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions
Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist
BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter
Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith
THESWOTANALYSIS
HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION
With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit
ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather
thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats
What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess
ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley
ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday
THEBCGBOX
HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
THEEISENHOWERMATRIX
HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY
The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent
Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions
Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist
BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter
Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith
THESWOTANALYSIS
HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION
With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit
ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather
thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats
What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess
ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley
ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday
THEBCGBOX
HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith
THESWOTANALYSIS
HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION
With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit
ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather
thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats
What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess
ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley
ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday
THEBCGBOX
HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats
What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess
ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley
ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday
THEBCGBOX
HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment
bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem
bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest
bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision
bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate
Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare
THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX
HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW
Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo
SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome
Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress
Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo
HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS
bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision
bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision
bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou
bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot
ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime
THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL
AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL
If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo
Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel
Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal
KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid
EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)
Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements
THERUBBERBANDMODEL
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA
Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma
CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme
At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives
ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown
rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)
Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
youandwhatispullingyou
THEFEEDBACKMODEL
DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS
FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices
Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)
Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction
It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment
Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords
Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits
PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate
FromtheTalmud
ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore
THEFAMILYTREEMODEL
THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN
This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies
AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess
DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient
HELPWITHINTERPRETATION
The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak
You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson
rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo
Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers
THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER
WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved
The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas
HOWITWORKS
Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)
ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO
bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials
bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings
bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance
bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics
bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses
bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous
bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse
The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer
rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)
THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL
HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS
Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes
bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift
bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift
TWORULESOFTHUMB
Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)
Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself
IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest
OscarWilde
ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived
THECONSEQUENCESMODEL
WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide
Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision
BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly
With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation
IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall
rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)
The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge
THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL
HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY
Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus
1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation
2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto
winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation
3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation
4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)
5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)
6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether
Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein
GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland
ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary
THECROSSROADSMODEL
SOWHATNEXT
Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions
WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM
HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour
educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant
WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU
WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains
WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU
HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear
WHATISHINDERINGYOU
WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen
WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF
List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength
LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone
1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry
2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof
3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome
4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore
5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown
6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe
Youdecide
Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake
HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER
THEFLOWMODEL
WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY
OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo
After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare
bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity
bullofourownchoosingthatis
bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas
bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives
bullimmediatefeedback
Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a
profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation
Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy
Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem
THEJOHARIWINDOW
WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU
Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is
derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes
A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout
B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers
CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful
DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream
Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow
TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself
Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness
THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL
WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY
There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren
ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings
Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition
ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude
A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi
WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner
THEMUSICMATRIX
WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU
Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix
THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL
WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE
Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare
As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe
didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity
WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated
IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit
THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL
HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF
IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies
You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives
bullhowyouseeyourself
bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullhowothersseeyou
bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou
PROCEEDASFOLLOWS
bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines
bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself
bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)
Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)
Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe
FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults
THEFASHIONMODEL
HOWWEDRESS
The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands
Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup
THEENERGYMODEL
AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW
ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo
Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou
Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia
YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture
rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)
Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture
THESUPERMEMOMODEL
HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED
Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson
how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately
ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak
ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox
Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards
THEPOLITICALCOMPASS
WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR
Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing
Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian
Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens
AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin
Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago
THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB
Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation
Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)
bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or
demandedofme
bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities
bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant
After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing
bullWhatdoyouwant
bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant
bullWhatareyouabletodo
bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo
Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit
rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)
TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant
THEMAKING-OFMODEL
TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST
WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams
ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt
Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture
This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline
bullthepeopleinvolved
bullyourgoals(atthetime)
bullthesuccesses
bulltheobstaclesyouovercame
bullwhatyoulearned
Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast
MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul
Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole
THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP
WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING
lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise
ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones
becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves
bullmyexpectationsofmyself
bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme
bullmyactualachievements
The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120
Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou
The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap
THEHYPECYCLE
HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING
Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit
Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies
WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle
1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo
2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo
3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo
4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the
technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo
5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit
Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts
rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)
Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment
THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL
WHYNUANCESMATTER
Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo
Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit
MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout
Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork
WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost
WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix
THENETWORKTARGETMODEL
WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU
Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon
The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong
Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown
bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou
bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou
bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive
bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality
Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone
rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)
InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof
THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL
EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW
Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield
HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER
THESWISSCHEESEMODEL
HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN
Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes
Therearedifferenttypesofmistake
bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout
bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten
bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly
Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur
bullskill-basedlevel
bullrule-basedlevel
bullknowledge-basedlevel
Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring
bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends
bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace
bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming
bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather
The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences
ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde
rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)
The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade
THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS
WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT
lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood
In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo
modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows
bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)
bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)
bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)
bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)
bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)
ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds
Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast
CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant
THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX
HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS
Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury
The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper
ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox
ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative
Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox
rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)
Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines
THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS
WHEREYOUBELONG
TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices
Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter
Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement
OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger
Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned
Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you
positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned
THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL
HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES
Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers
First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge
Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently
The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace
Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem
Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse
Bethechangeyouwanttosee
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit
THEAIMODEL
WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU
TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset
EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection
ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit
Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions
bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo
bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo
bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo
bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo
AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin
Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments
THESMALL-WORLDMODEL
HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS
In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo
In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg
Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts
Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow
SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)
Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo
THEPARETOPRINCIPLE
WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT
AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover
Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults
IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)
ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues
THELONG-TAILMODEL
HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY
ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity
AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers
The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos
rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)
The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers
THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION
WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME
The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena
Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics
WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality
If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror
THEBLACKSWANMODEL
WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents
Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered
WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted
For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted
Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling
Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)
THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL
WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD
Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye
SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted
The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities
respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo
TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain
WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore
FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi
rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)
ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod
THEBLACKBOXMODEL
WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE
One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark
As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround
ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth
WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making
The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation
In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments
rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)
ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations
THESTATUSMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER
WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus
ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes
OLDMONEY
The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem
CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS
Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored
THENOUVEAURICHE
Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon
THEGREENSUVers
The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury
The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders
THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA
WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE
AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer
Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother
This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed
In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours
YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi
YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact
HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS
THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL
HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM
There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough
FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater
IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals
bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou
bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage
Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat
the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam
Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier
BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker
Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes
Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject
THETEAMMODEL
ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB
Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo
ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths
Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities
BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities
Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt
(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare
THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL
HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA
ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts
SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen
bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct
bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct
bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct
Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied
Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall
PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough
This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche
THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)
HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES
Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)
A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween
1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions
2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves
3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or
ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)
4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams
LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves
Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto
ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis
THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)
HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW
When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic
This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)
Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour
bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility
bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions
bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique
bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario
bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive
bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture
BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole
Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles
bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist
bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer
bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist
Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace
I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL
WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE
There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit
The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement
BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic
Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation
AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous
rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)
To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished
THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL
WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK
Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa
matrixwithfourfields
lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets
lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve
The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears
YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly
Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives
bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience
bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)
bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing
Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling
In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing
such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata
Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient
Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld
rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)
An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups
NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN
DRAWINGLESSON1
WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK
ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime
Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform
bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention
bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue
bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture
Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem
DRAWINGLESSON2
HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS
bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently
bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy
bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms
bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows
bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart
MYMODELS
APPENDIX
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000
Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984
EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007
GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000
KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007
KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997
MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994
MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997
Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70
SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006
StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996
TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007
Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009
WiredCondeacuteNast2008
ONTHEINTERNET
Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml
Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch
Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom
A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml
Managementmodelswwwprovenmodelscom
PredictivemodelsislandialawyaleeduayrespredictionToolshtm
APPENDIXILLUSTRATIONCREDITS
Thefollowingsourceswereutilisedforthecreationofillustrationsforthisbook
Swiss cheese model James Reasonwwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770
Gap-in-the-marketmodelwwwinnovation-aktuellde
ThechasmMalcolmGladwellTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002
GiftmodelEsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
UffeElbaeligkmodelUffeElbaeligkKaospilotA-ZKaosCommunication2003
TheSuperMemo-ModelWiredCondeacuteNast2008
FashionmodelEricSommierModelemondeenmovementVillageMondial2000
Fashionmodel2EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCommunications2007
FlowmodelMihalyCsikszentmihalyiCreativityFlowand thePsychologyofDiscoveryandInventionHarperPerennial1996
SinusMilieuwwwsinus-sociovisionde
Bourdieu model Pierre Bourdieu Die feinen Unterschiede Kritik dergesellschaftlichenUrteilskraftSuhrkamp2000
PrisonerrsquosdilemmaLagraveszlograveMeacuteroumlDieLogikderVernunftSpieltheorieunddiePsychologiedesHandelnsRowohlt2000
ThinkingoutsidetheboxwwwinterchangedkTokeMœllerMonicaNissen
MaslowpyramidGottliebDuttweilerInstitut
TheHypeCycleGartner2010
Politicalcompasswwwpoliticalcompassorg
Hersey and Blanchard Paul Hersey Kenneth H Blanchard amp Dewey EJohnsonManagementofOrganizationalBehaviorLeadingHumanResourcesPearsonEducation2008
DrexlerndashSibbetwwwgrovecom
Teamrolemodelwwwbelbincom
Consequencesmodel SoslashrenChristensen andKristianKreinerProjektledelse i1œstkobledesystemerJurist-ogOslashkonomforbundetsForlag2002
WhitmoremodelJohnWithmoreCoachingfuumlrdiePraxisHeyne1997
Cognitive dissonance Carlo Tavris and Elliot AronsonMistakes WereMade(ButNotbyMe)Harcourt2007
Theworldrsquosnexttopmodelwwworgnetcomdividedhtml
APPENDIXFINALNOTE
Thisisthefirstbooktosetoutawiderangeofdecision-makingstrategiesandmodelsWe had no prototypes sowe had to break new ground If you comeacrossmistakesifyouknowofotherbettermodelsifyouhavesuggestionsofhow a model can be further developed or if you simply want to make acomment please write to us You can discuss the models atwww2topmodelscom
THANKS
Thewritingofthisbookwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthegeneroushelpofthefollowingpeopleandinstitutions
Pat Ammon Multiple Global Design (for the Morphological box) ChrisAnderson Wired (for the SuperMemo the Long tail and the Superficialknowledge models) Mark Buchanan (for the Subtle signals model) AndreaslsquoBecksrsquoDietrich (for intelligent sparring)Uffe Elbaeligk (for his ability to drawanythingaswellasfortheUffeElbaeligkmodel)MattFischerAppleMusicStore(forinspiration)KarinFrickGDI(foraglimpseintothefuture)DagGrœdalNordea (for helpful suggestions) Peter Haag (because he believed [in] us)Cedric Hiltbrand (for his corrections) the Kaospilot University (for the besteducation imaginable)MarcKaufmann (forpositivedisrespectfulness)BennoMaggi(fortheFamilytreeGap-in-the-marketandSwisscheesemodelsaswellasforcontinuousfeedback)ChristianNill(forfeedback)CourtneyPage-FerellPlay(fortheadvicelsquoDonrsquottakeyourselftooseriouslyrsquo)SvenOpitzUniversityof Basel (for Double-loop learning) Lisa Owens and Daniel Crewe ProfileBooks (for great editing and making all of this possible) Jenny Piening (forcarefulandsmarttranslation)MarkRaskinoGartner(forthehypecycle)SaraSchindler and Laura Clemens (for editing and proofreading) Pierre-AndreacuteSchmid(forhisongoinginterestandthemanybooks)MichaelSchulerHeadofMusicDRS3(forhelpingwiththeMusicmatrix)UteTellmannUniversityofBasel (for criticismof themodels) andDanielWeberNZZFolio (for helpfuladvice)
APPENDIXTHEAUTHORS
MikaelKrogerusbornin1976inStockholmisaFinnishcitizenandgrewupinSweden andGermanyHe studiedpolitics at theFreieUniversitaumlt inBerlinandcompletedhisstudiesin2003attheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkHewentontoworkfortheyouthTVshowChatthePlanetinNewYorkandfrom2005wasaneditoratNZZFolio themagazineof theNeueZuumlricherZeitungSince2009hehasbeenworkingasafreelancejournalistforDerFreitagBrandEinsandtheNZZamongothers
RomanTschaumlppelerborn in1978 inBernworkedfor theSwiss ideafactoryBrainStoreandfoundedaculturalcentreasateenagerIn2003hecompletedhisstudiesattheKaospilotSchoolinDenmarkanddevelopednumerouscookbooksforatopSwisschefforwhomhealsoactsasmanagerIn2004hefoundedthecommunication agency lsquoguzorsquo which develops campaigns for companies andaidorganisationsproducesmusicandprovidesconsultingservices in theareaofideaandinnovationimplementation
PhilipEarnhartisafreelanceartdirectorHewasbornin1965inSwitzerlandis anAmerican citizen and grew up in Switzerland and theUSA In 1989 hecompleted his studies at the Art Institute of Seattle He went on to work foradvertising agencies in the USA and Europe and developed infographics andlearningaids forCitigroupDeltaAirlinesDuPont andKPMGamongothersSince2006hehasbeenlivingwithhisfamilyinSwitzerland
JennyPieningisafreelancetranslatoreditorandwriterbasedinBerlin
BEST OF THE BLOG ndash EBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER
Thischapterndashexclusive to theeBookndashsamples thebestcontent fromMikaelandRomanrsquosblog50topmodelswordpresscom
AHAFRIENDREQUESTBUTWHOTHEHELLISBENNO
The line between a friend and an enemy is sometimes as fine as that betweenbraveryandstupidityThislittlefriend-scoutingmodelshowswhototrust
Soletrsquosstartinthebottom-leftcornerlsquoTheEnemyofmyEnemyismyFriendrsquoWe all know this basic principle from the schoolyard or evenWorldWar IIwhenlongtimeenemiesBritainandFranceunitedagainstNaziGermanyLetrsquoshavea lookat theupper-leftsquarelsquoTheEnemyofmyFriendismyEnemyrsquoThis is the highlymoralistic conversionof theMachiavelli principle Someofyoumight havebeen lucky enough to have experienced this at schoolOthersmight know it frommaths trusting others and being trusted (tit for tat) is theultimatesolutionfortheprisonerrsquosdilemmaingametheorylsquoTheFriendofmyEnemyisanAholersquoeveryonewhorsquoseverexperiencedbetrayalknowswhatwersquoretalkingaboutAndfinallylsquoTheFriendofmyFriendismyFriendrsquoThisisthebasic principle ofFacebookHerersquos a questionHowmany friendsdoyouhaveonFacebookHowmanyof themdoyouknowAndhowmanydoyoutrust
Filedunder lsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquo lsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublished inLEADER
BETTERNEVERTHANLATE
HerersquosadilemmaWhatisworsecommittingamistakeearlyonorcommittingamistake after having thoroughly addressed a problem In other words is itworse tomakeamistakebasedonsuperficial judgementor tomakeamistakebelievingyouwereabsolutelyright
Science says the latter isworseManagers loosemoremoney if theyponderaquestion for a long time than if theymake a quick butwrong decision Thebottom-linebetterneverthanlate
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquolsquoLeadershipmodelrsquo
HOWWEBECAMEWHATWEARE
RealityisnofunHerersquosanexample(y-axis=degreeofsuccessx-axis=age)DoyourememberwhatyouwantedtobecomewhenyouwereachildDoyourememberwhatyourparentswantedyoutobecomeCompareyourdreamwiththeirdreamWhatwouldhavebeenmoredifficulttoachieveNowlookatwhatyoursquore doing right now for a living How far away is that away from yourchildhooddreamWherediditallgowrongAndwhyOronthecontraryareyouhappyyouneverpursuedyourchildhooddream
Allof this is tosay itrsquossometimesgoodto leanbackgrabadecentdrinkandponderthequestionWhatmakesushappyHerersquosahintmaybewearehappywhenweforgetwhatwecannotchange
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoCoachingmodelsrsquo
STARWARS
Sowhorsquos the best LionelMessiWayne Rooney Arjen Robben or FernandoTorresHerersquosalittletooltohelpyounamethebestfootballplayerintheworldduringtheupcomingWorldCupInthismodelwersquovelistednineofourfavouriteplayersTheyrsquoreallreallygoodbutwhoisthebest
Oneaxis shows the socalledCastrol Index It shows statisticallyhowmuchaplayerhelpedhisteamtoscoreagoalAttheendofeverygameeachplayergetsascorebetween1and1010beingthebestThex-axisshowswhattheoddsaretowintheWorldCupThesizeoftheplayersnameinthegraphindicatestheirmarketvalue(egMessieuro80mDerdiokeuro9metc)Formorenice-to-knowstuffcheckoutcastrolfootballcom
(Thiswaswrittenon11June2010neitherwenorthecracksatCastrolfootballknew back then that Messi Ronaldo and Rooney would turn out to be thebiggestdisappointmentsoftheWorldCup)
FiledunderlsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoStatisticalmodelsrsquo
THEFACE-ITBOOK
We cannot stand anymore stories aboutweb20 social networks and lsquowhatrsquosnextrsquo scenarios Thatrsquos why we were really happy to find this comprehensiveexplanationfor internetmadnesscalleddespaircomThisworkinspiredustodrawupourownversionoftheblackholeintheworldwidewebThemodelisprettyself-explanatoryIfyoudonrsquotgetityoumusthavebeenonthemoonforthelastfouryearsOroff-lineWhichisprettymuchthesamething
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquolsquoPsychologicalmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
WHATrsquoS THE BEST AND WHATrsquoS THE RIGHTIDEA
BestvsRightideaIfyourideaisneithergroundbreakingnorlucrativeitrsquosnotmuch of an idea Ideas that appear to be very lucrative are often copies ofexisting lucrative ideas TakeMotorolarsquos 1996 StarTAC clam-shell How dideveryoneinthemarketreactTheycopiedthisideaincludingNokiaIdeasthatseemfar-outareoftenthebestideastheideasyoufallinlovewith
WhenstudyingwiththeKaospilots(wwwkaospilotdk)weweregiventhetasktore-brandtheDanishcityofAarhusThecityisknownasthecityofwomen(theyhavetheonlyexistingWomenrsquosMuseumAarhuswomenareknownasthemostbeautifulinthewholeofDenmarketc)Ourideathenwastoswapallthesmallgreenredmen indicatingWALKDONrsquoTWALKin thepedestrian trafficlightswithgreenredwomenAarhussaidgreatbuttooexpensive
Sowhatisanexampleforlsquotherightidearsquoanideathatislucrativeforthemarket
andgroundbreakingOnesuchwasRadioheadrsquosideatogiveawaytheiralbumlsquoRainbowrsquoforwhateveryouconsumerswerewillingtopayonlineItresultedinthemearningmuchmoremoneythantheywouldhavegarneredsellingtheCDinstores
FiledunderlsquoBusinessmodelsrsquopublishedinLEADER
INTHELONGRUN
Playingpokercan tellyoua lotaboutyourselfAreyoucoolAreyoubraveAreyouincontrolDoyouhaveanymoneyleftBeinginarelationshipmightalsotellyousomethingAreyoucommittedAreyoubraveAreyouinloveDoyouwanttobeincontrol
Scienceshowsthatthebestpointtoleavethe(poker)tableisthemomentwhenyou start losing after a longwinning streak (Of course itwould be better toleave while still winning but that says research is impossible) Interestinglyenough it seems that leaving the tablewhen the relationshipgets complicateddoesnotprovetobesuccessfulstrategy
On a different noteMen tend to havemore difficulties leaving the table thanwomen Compare this to the fact that women rather then men tend to endrelationships
FiledunderlsquoExplaining-myselfmodelsrsquolsquoFunmodelsrsquo