The future of electromobility?
Dr. Börje GrandinDirector Hybrid Technologies
Vehicle R&D at CEVT
Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology!
Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact
Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future
Conclusion: Technology for reaching low CO2 must be adopted to a global market.
Fuel consumption can be reduced in 4 areas – New technology influence all 4 areas positively
Fuel consumption reduction, 4 steps
Product Planning
2. Using EnergyMeasures to improve:
Reduce energy consumption of the vehicle– friction & losses
Improved transmissions
Downsizing ICE
3. Energy recoveryMeasures to improve:• Stop-Start – Smart generator strategy• Hybrids
1. Waste of Energy Measures to improve:• Stop-Start – ICE off during vehicle stop• Hybrids
Test cycle for fuel consumption measurements in China and Europe
4. Shift away from oil based fuelsMeasures to improve:• Plug in Hybrids• Pure Electric vehicles• Fuel cell vehicles
New technology… Do we need it?
Nb! Peak efficiency of an ICE~45%, transmission ~95% 42%...
CO
2 N
ED
-C
0
100
50
20001000 1500
95g /km legal req.
75
125
25
35% P/T eff. = top performers!
50% P/T eff. = Very unlikely!
25% P/T eff.
g/k
m
kg
70g /km legal req.
Conventional technology capable…
New Technololgy needed …
Volvo V40
Legislation one driver for new CO2 technology!
Regulations Worldwide – Technology impact
Observation: All regulations are merging and will be below 100g in the future
Conclusion: Technology for reaching low CO2 must be adopted to a global market.
We need to include a
shift away from oil based fuels
7
Could the battery vehicle be mainstream?
Running costs are lower for electric vehicle!
Assumption:
200 Wh/km for electric vehicle and 5l gasoline per 100km
Example: 15000 km / year
1:50 SEK / kWh & 15 SEK/l gasoline
6750 SEK lower cost for electric vehicle per year
How many years to pay of the battery investment? …
8
Could the battery vehicle be mainstream?
*Investment with 3% cost of capital
Difference in running costsEl. Vs Gasoline
15000 km/yr
20000 km/yr
Investment* for 25kWh:
DoE target ~25kSEK2020+ est. ~50kSEK2015 cost ~75kSEK
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The battery vehicle as mainstream
If a 2020 DoE target price for batteries will happen it is likely
The customer will decide
However:- Recharging still limits usable range- Volume & weight will limit installed capacity
BEV will be an excellent commuter vehicle
PHEV or Battery vehicle?... Or both?C
ost
Driving distance
Battery cost
Larger tank…
Electric vehicle
Plug-in Hybrid
Conventionell ICE Vehicle
?
11
Sizing the battery for every day driving
Daily Driving
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
km per day
% d
rivin
g
USSwedenJapanEU
Published May 2013 by US NRC
50km e-drive covers the daily driving for more than 50% of the population…
By providing a charge station during the day, a higher percentage of the population would be covered.
12
Higher priced vehicles have a lower market share Low on-cost solutions will be needed
Sa
le v
olu
me
Vehicle Price
Conventional vehicle
PHEV vehicle
BEV vehicle
Even Though a PHEV vehicle is a more cost effective way of reducing CO2, Mild hybrids might be needed as it is a lower cost technology
HEV vehicle
13
What is needed to get a large impact?
1. Reduce on-cost of electrification
2. Standards
3. Infrastructure for charging
4. Sustainable production of electricity
Date Created: [YYYY-MM-DD]
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Reduce on-cost of electrification
Technology breakthrough in battery or continuous energy transfer- Target ~1000sek/kWh for 2020 for 10kWh battery pack
Integrated solutions to reduced complexity of systems- Combine all power electronics- Combine electric motor & power electronics- Integrated electric motors in transmissions
Lower cost system components- Electric distribution system, cables connectors etc..- Radiators and heat exchangers should be standard- Low cost internal combustion engines
Issuer: [Name] [CDS-ID]; [Organisation]; [Name of document]; Security Class: [Proprietary]
Date Created: [YYYY-MM-DD]
99010 B. Grandin, VCC EPS Strategy
Cost for Future power train?C
ost
Driving distance
Battery costElectric vehicle
Plug-in Hybrid
Conventionell ICE Vehicle
?
Cos
t
Driving distance
Electric vehicle
Plug-in Hybrid
Conventionell ICE Vehicle
?
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Conclusions
Costs of electrification will come down
When electrification on-cost is in a range were first owners will have a return of investment, electrification will be mainstream!
PHEV and BEV will have different users- BEV: Short distance commuting- PHEV: Short distance commuting + occasional long distance
We will see both PHEV and BEV in the future
CEVT organisation
Current market situation
Market is increasing!
China is still not moving…
(However strongly motivated) Japan mature
US rising
EU still lagging..