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THE FUTURE OF THE INTERNETEXPERT-SURVEY RESULTS
Lee Rainie
Director Pew Internet ProjectDigital Capital Week
National Geographic
6.15.10
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2000
46% of adults use internet
5% with broadband at home
50% own a cell phone
0% connect wirelessly
two-thirds use cloud
48% = tech social networkers
NOW: faster, mobile
connections built around
outside servers and storage
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Futurism 101 the technology side
Computing capacity: The price/performance ratio ofcomputing hardware doubles every 18-24 months
(Moores Law) Bandwidth capacity: Doubles every two years in
wired environment (Gilders Law and Nielsens Law)
Doubles every 2.5 years - wireless (Coopers Law).
Digital storage capacity: Doubled every 23 monthssince 1956 (Kryders Law)
Others:miniaturization, density of graphical displays,file compression, sensor/RFID proliferation
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Futurism 101 the operating/apps side
Search improvements Relevance quality information Real time Relatedness
Expansion of local awareness Conversational user interface Translation improvements Social graph expansions and nuances Rise of the internet of things
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Metaverse Roadmaphttp://www.metaverseroadmap.org/overview/
Augmentation
Simulation
Extern
al
Internal
AugmentedReality
Lifelogging
Mirror
Worlds
Virtual
Worlds
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Survey basicsFourth such survey
With Elon University, N.C. reports and books by Cambria
PressExperts pool
those identified from1990-1995 period
new invitees since 2004 (high-tech organizations)
pass-along recommendations and friends of Pew Internet
http://www.elon.edu/predictions/
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Survey 1 2005 reportHits (impact by 2014)
Online security would be a growingproblem and attacks increase
Journalism and publishing would beslammed
Health systems not change radicallyMiss (so far)
Classroom structures and lessonswould change
Surprises Awed by rise of web, search engines,
and P2P
Disappointed by lack of change so farin schools and digital divides
http://www.elon.edu/predictions/
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Survey 2 2006 reportHits (impact by 2020)
Boundary between work andhome would shrivel
Virtual reality would be morecompelling to some than real
life
No consensus
Personal transparency wouldyield more tolerance andforgiveness
http://www.elon.edu/predictions/
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Survey 3 2008 reportHits (impact by 2020)
Mobile devices would becomeprimary connection devices
Haptic interfaces talk andtouch, maybe think would
rise
No consensus
Transparency would lead tomore personal integrity andforgiveness
http://www.elon.edu/predictions/
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Survey 4 -- BasicsResults this time 895 respondents
371 past participant experts 524 new recruits and friends
15% research scientists/scholars 14% business leaders or
entrepreneurs
12% consultants or futurists 12% authors, editors or journalists 9% technology developers or
administrators 7% advocates or activists 3% pioneers or originators 2% legislators, politicians or lawyers 25% specified themselves other
http://www.elon.edu/predictions/
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Question strategy Tension pairs
force choice in
opposingstatements
Narrativeelaborations
Subject choice (notour predictions)
http://www.elon.edu/predictions/
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http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200807/google
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Will Google make us stupid?By 2020, peoples use of the
Internet has not enhanced
human intelligence and itcould even be lowering the
IQs of most people who useit a lot. Nicholas Carr was
right: Google makes us
stupid
16% experts21% full sample
By 2020, peoples use of the
Internet has enhanced
human intelligence; aspeople are allowed
unprecedented access tomore information, they
become smarter and make
better choices. NicholasCarr was wrong: Google
does not make us stupid
81% experts76% full sample
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Themes Cognitive capacities will shift. New literacies will be required. Fourth R
will be retrieval. Extreme Googlers.
Technology isnt the problem here. It ispeoples inherent character traits.
Performance of information markets is abig unknown, especially in the age of socialmedia and junk information. Google will
improve.
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Are hot new gadgets and apps evident now?
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Are hot new gadgets evident now?Hot gadgets and apps that
will capture the
imagination of users in
2020 will often come outof the blue and not
have been anticipated
by many of todays
savviest innovators.
81% experts80% full sample
The hot gadgets and
applications that will
capture the imagination
of users in 2020 arepretty evident today
and will not take many
of todays savviest
innovators by surprise.
16% experts17% full sample
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Themes iPhone, iPhone, iPhone Innovation ecosystem will change: bandwidth / processing Still, there are basic trends evident now and some
groundwork that has been in place for years that will yieldinnovation.
The internet of things Sensors proliferate Mobile connectivity and location-based services grow Bigger/thinner TVs -- 3D displays Consolidated, all-purpose gadgets and apps
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What is the future of online anonymity?
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What is the future of online anonymity?By 2020, Internet users can do a lot
of normal online activities
anonymously even though the
identification systems used on
the Internet have been applied
to a wider range of activities. It
is still relatively easy for
Internet users to create
content, communicate, and
browse without publicly
disclosing who they are.
54% experts55% full sample
By 2020, the identification ID
systems used online are tighter
and more formal fingerprints or
DNA-scans or retina scans. The
use of these systems is the
gateway to most of the Internet-
enabled activity that users are
able to perform such as
shopping, communicating,
creating content, and browsing.
Anonymous online activity issharply curtailed.
42% experts41% full sample
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Themes The law and new regulations will give people some
privacy protections even though they are required to
disclose more.
There are still sufficient workarounds that will allowpeople some measure of anonymity. Pseudonymity
will be available to people.
Confidentiality and autonomy will replace yearning foranonymity.
The rise of social media is as much a challenge toanonymity as authentication requirements. Reputation
management and information responsibility will
emerge.
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The impact of the internet on institutions
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The impact of the internet on institutionsBy 2020, governments,
businesses, non-profits
will primarily retain
familiar 20th century
models for conduct of
relationships with
citizens and consumers
online and offline.
26% experts26% full sample
By 2020, innovative forms of
online cooperation will
result insignificantly
more efficient and
responsive
governments, business,
non-profits, and other
mainstream institutions.
71% experts72% full sample
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Themes
The tide is too strong to resist pressures fortransparency are powerful
The future is unevenly distributed businesseswill change most; governments least
Data will be the platform for change Workarounds, facilitated by social media, will be
common
Efficiency and responsiveness arent the samething
Anonymous worries about corporate power
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Impact of internet on reading, writing, rendering
of knowledge?
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Impact of internet on reading, writing, rendering
of knowledge?
By 2020, it will be clear
that the Internet has
diminished and
endangered reading,writing, and the
intelligent rendering
of knowledge.
27% experts32% full sample
By 2020, it will be clear
that the Internet has
enhanced and
improved reading,writing, and the
rendering of
knowledge.
69% experts65% full sample
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Themes
People are doing more reading and writing now andthat hasto be better than the alternative. Participation
breeds engagement.
Reading and writing will be different in 10 years. Therewill be a new fluidity in media creation and screen
literacy will become important.
The nature of writing has changed now, especiallysince so much of it takes place in public. The quality of
the new material will get better thanks to feedback andflamers.
Networked information links and mashups arechanging the creation and consumption process.
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The cloud vs. the desktop
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The cloud vs. the desktop
By 2020, most people will still
do their work with software
running on a general-purpose PC. The most
innovative and importantapplications will run on (and
spring from) a PC operating
system. Aspiring applicationdesigners will write mostly
for PCs.
25% experts27% full sample
By 2020, most people won't do
their work with software
running on a general-purpose PC. Instead, they
will work in Internet-basedapplications. Most
innovative work will be done
in that domain, instead ofdesigning applications that
run on a PC OS.
72% experts71% full sample
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Themes
The advantages of ubiquitous access and mobilitytrump other things.
The edges will give way to the center, with apredictable loss of personal control of information.
Security problems will result and new kinds ofprivacy disputes are inevitable.
Ordinary users wont know the difference or carevery much.
A hybrid world of cloud and desktop will evolve aseach system finds its own primary value. Strains on
spectrum might drive people back to device-based
computing.
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Will internet be dominated by end-to-end principle?
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Will internet be dominated by end-to-end principle?
In the years between now and
2020, the Internet will mostly
become a technology whereintermediary institutions that
control the architecture andsignificant amounts ofcontent will be successfulin
gaining the right to manage
information and the method by
which people access and shareit.
29% experts33% full sample
In the years between now and 2020,
the Internet will mostly remain a
technology based on the end-
to-end principle that was
envisioned by the Internets
founders.Most disagreementsover the way information flows
online will be resolved in favor of a
minimum number of restrictions
over the information available
online and the methods by which
people access it.
63% experts61% full sample
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Themes
There is too much good history and user buy-in to partwith end-to-end internet to see it largely overturned.
Openness has its own virtues and those who resist itwill fall behind those who enable it.
Those who took the opposite view were not necessarilyhappy about it, but they argued there are many forces
pushing towards more control of the internet:
governments, businesses, users themselves to ward off
bad experiences
Some things will have to be managed, especially if thecapacity of the current internet becomes strained.
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The fate of the semantic web
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The fate of the semantic web
By 2020, the semantic
web envisioned by
TBL and his allies will
have been achieved toa significant degree
and have clearly made
a difference to the
average internet users.
38% experts41% full sample
By 2020, the semantic
web envisioned by Tim
Berners-Lee will not be
as fully effective as itscreators hoped and
average users will not
have noticed much of
a difference.
52% experts47% full sample
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Themes
There is too much variation among people andeconomic competitors to allow it to happen.
Improvements are inevitable, but they will not unfoldthe way TBL & Co. have sketched out. They will be
grassroots-driven rather than standards-driven. Data
mining, links, analysis of social exchanges will help
drive the process of smartening the web.
The semantic web will not really take off until it findsits killer app. The killer app will come when we can askthe internet questions. Conversational searchcould be
the key.
There will be upstairs/downstairs deployment.
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Still to come: Human relations / Millennials
grow up
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Human relations
85%
In 2020, when I look at the big
picture and consider my
personal friendships,
marriage and otherrelationships, I see that the
internet has mostly been a
positive force on my social
world. And this will only growmore true in the future.
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Aging Millennials
67%69%
By 2020, members of Generation Y
will continue to be ambient
broadcasters who disclose a great
deal of personal information in order
to stay connected and take
advantage of social, economic, and
political opportunities. Even as they
mature, have families, and take on
more significant responsibilities,their enthusiasm for widespread
information sharing will carry
forward.
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Thank you!
Lee Rainie
Director
Pew Internet & American Life Project1615 L Street NW
Suite 700
Washington, DC 20036
Email: [email protected]: http://twitter.com/lrainie
202-419-4500