THE GLOBEC GOALTo advance our understanding of the structure and
functioning of the global ocean ecosystem, its major subsystems, and its response to physical forcing so that a capability can be developed to
forecast the responses of the marine ecosystem to global change.
GLOBEC Scientific Steering CommitteeGLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee
REGIONAL REGIONAL PROGRAMMESPROGRAMMES
PICES- Climate Changeand Carrying Capacity
ICES- Cod andClimate Change
Southern Ocean GLOBEC
Small Pelagic fish And Climate Change
RESEARCH FOCIRESEARCH FOCI
1 - Retrospective Analysis WG
2 - Process Studies WG
3 - Prediction and Modelling WG
4 - Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG
GLOBEC I.P.O.GLOBEC I.P.O.
Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine,
USA, UK
Multinational Multinational ActivitiesActivities
National National ActivitiesActivities
BENEFIT (S. AFRICA]NATFISH (N. AFRICA)OFCCP (Eq. Pacific)
LIFECO (EC]TASC (EC)…
GLOBEC STRUCTUREGLOBEC STRUCTURE
REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
Cod and Climate Change Programme (ICES-CCC)This programme investigates the effect of climate variability on cod stock fluctuations, ranging from the effects of small-scale turbulence on encounter rates between fish larvae and their prey, to large-scale effects of inter-decadal changes in wind fields on circulation and transport of heat and young fish.
Cod catch at GreenlandCod catch at Greenland
0
100
200
300
400
500
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Lan
din
gs
in t
ho
us
and
to
nn
es
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Tem
per
atu
re
Cod catches have followed environmental trends in recent decades. Has fishing
limited the capacity of cod to respond to favourable environments?
REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (PICES-CCCC)This activity develops a theoretical and mathematical framework which extends the concept of carrying capacity into the multi-species ecosystem domain. It addresses how climate change affects ecosystem structure and the productivity of key biological species at all trophic levels in the North Pacific.
Shrimp
Cod/ Pollock
Flatfish
Other
1.0
0.6
0.2
19
53
19
62
19
71
19
80
19
89
19
98
The community structure of the North Pacific has changed over the last decades. How is this affecting the functioning of the
system?
REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
Southern Ocean Programme (SO-GLOBEC)This programme is focused on understanding how physical forces influence population dynamics and predator/ prey interactions between key species.
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Kril
l rec
rui tm
e nt
10
8
6
4
2
Mon
th
Area covered with ice 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Antarctic krill has peaks of abundance on “good-ice years”. How do climate
fluctuations (and thus ice cover) affect krill and its predators?
REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC)The long-range goal is to forecast how the productivity of small pelagic fish populations will be altered by climate variability and change. SPACC will involve process studies, based on comparisons of standard measurements from different ecosystems, and retrospective studies built around palaeoecological and genetic data.
100
-100
-300
-500
Pacific salmon
Chilean Jack mackerelCalifornian sardineJapanese sardine
Peruvian sardine
European sardine
Alaska pollock
Catc
h (
rela
tive u
nit
s)
1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Pelagic fish globally seem to fluctuate in synchrony. What drives this patterns?
GLOBEC Scientific Steering CommitteeGLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee
REGIONAL REGIONAL PROGRAMMESPROGRAMMES
PICES- Climate Changeand Carrying Capacity
ICES- Cod andClimate Change
Southern Ocean GLOBEC
Small Pelagic fish And Climate Change
RESEARCH FOCIRESEARCH FOCI
1 - Retrospective Analysis WG
2 - Process Studies WG
3 - Prediction and Modelling WG
4 - Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG
GLOBEC I.P.O.GLOBEC I.P.O.
Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine,
USA, UK
Multinational Multinational ActivitiesActivities
National National ActivitiesActivities
BENEFIT (S. AFRICA]NATFISH (N. AFRICA)OFCCP (Eq. Pacific)
LIFECO (EC]TASC (EC)…
GLOBEC STRUCTUREGLOBEC STRUCTURE
GLOBEC
Focus 4
“Feedbacks from Changes in Marine Ecosystem Structure”
General Objective:
To co-operate with other ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial and social global change research programmes to estimate feedbacks from changes in marine ecosystem structure to the global earth system
GLOBEC Focus 4, Activity 4.3
Social Impacts of Changes in Marine Ecosystems
Working Group Goals:
1) To understand the interactions between marine coastal communities and global changes in marine ecosystems;
2) To understand the capacity of these communities to adjust to these changes;
3) To understand the consequences of these adjustments for marine ecosystems.
Current situation
Disaster
Interactions of Environmental and Societal Changes
Marine EcosystemChanges Increasing
Coping Capacity Decreasing
Community CopingCapacity Marine
EcosystemChange
Coping Capacity
Situation resulting from global changes
Disaster
Marine Ecosystem Change
Modified from M. Brklacich, 2002. Pers. Comm.
Resilience
Vulnerability
Several issues complicate study of these interactions:
1. Scale• What are the scales at which marine ecosystems and coastal
communities interact?
• What are the scales of environmental change compared with scales on which humans have the ability to change and adapt.
• How to move between scales when the drivers are global but the impacts local?
2. Knowledge• Open” and “Closed” knowledge systems – e.g. publicly available, local
knowledge, or group-based.
• How best to exchange and to incorporate scientific and local knowledge into decision-making?
3. Values• How to assign value to ecosystem states, e.g. is an system which
supports Atlantic cod inherently better than one that supports northern shrimp?
Source:The Newfoundland Fishery: A Descriptive AnalysisNoel Roy (Memorial University)Symposium on the Efficiency of North Atlantic Fisheries; Iceland, September 12-13, 1997http://www.ucs.mun.ca/~noelroy/NfFishery.text.html
Example case study: Atlantic cod in NewfoundlandExample case study: Atlantic cod in Newfoundland
The collapse of cod has been severe social disruption in Newfoundland. In addition to the social displacements, there have been changes in the ways that coastal communities use the marine ecosystems:
• have expanded into previously un-fished species, • have expanded into new locations,• are using previous fishing grounds for species other than
cod.
Result is potential for significant negative impacts on the marine ecosystem, and on the recovery of cod.
Working Group Approach
• Develop a review/appraisal paper on the topic “What are the impacts of marine ecosystem changes on coastal communities?”. Case studies might include: Peru and changes induced by El Nino oscillations; NW Atlantic groundfish collapses
• Explore “significant issues”, starting with “Scale” (a MS has been submitted)
• Develop models coupling marine ecosystem changes with the socio-economic system.
• Develop active links with other relevant programs, e.g. GECaFS, by exploring these issues for the marine ecosystems of Peru, Chile and Ecuador; or possibly the Caribbean?
USACanadaMexicoPeruChileBrazilAngolaNamibiaSouth AfricaMoroccoMauritaniaSenegalAustraliaNew ZealandNew CaledoniaJapanKoreaChinaRussiaUkraineTurkeySpainPortugalItalyGermanyFranceUKNetherlandsDenmarkNorway
Countries participating in GLOBEC activities at national or Regional level
For more information: Contact Manuel Barange For more information: Contact Manuel Barange (GLOBEC Executive Officer), [email protected], or (GLOBEC Executive Officer), [email protected], or
Ian Perry (Focus 4 co-chair), [email protected] Perry (Focus 4 co-chair), [email protected]
mpo.gc.ca.mpo.gc.ca. www.globec.orgwww.globec.org