Agile FundraisingThe ICO roller coaster
Luca Merolla
1
@lucamerolla
About Me
CEO and co-founder of GURUVEST AG
ICO Advisor, Business Angel
Computer Science and MBA
Dip. Managerial Economics
Dip. Management of Technological Innovation
Dip. Management of Information Systems
Silicon Valley Technology Venture Launch Program
PG Certificate in Private Equity & Venture Capital
PG Certificate in International Business
EPFL Innovation Startup Board Member Academy
EPFL Innovation Exit Strategy For Startups
2
1. Raising funds
@lucamerolla 4
Financing Life Cycle
@lucamerolla
Which financing options do you have?
Reason 1 Reason 2 Reason 3 Valuation Prototype
Friends, Family & Fools
You You You No No
Business Angels Domain You - No Better
Venture Capitalists Traction Exit Time Yes Must
Strategic Investors Channels Products Technology Likely Must
Crowd-funding Cool - - No No
5
2. ICOs vs “typical” startups
Whitepaper Business Plan
7
Smart Contract Convertible note, Term Sheet
8
Secondary Market IPO
9
Monetization
10
Typical startup Typical ICO company
➔ Advertising
➔ Selling products and
services➔ Token Model
@lucamerolla
Capital injection differences
11
Held
Initial fundraise
Crowdsale
Typical startup fundraiseTypical ICO
@lucamerolla
Valuation of Blockchain Startups
Liquidity 1.6x Premium
Dilution 2x Premium
Investor Rights and Protections .9x Discount
Regulatory Risk .87x Discount
Security / Custodian Risk .9x Discount
Total 2.25x Premium
12
@NotationCapital
3. GURUVEST Story: planning an ICO
STEP1:#wehaveaplan
Trip to Silicon Valley
@lucamerolla
Testing hypothesis: Silicon Valley, July 2017
16
US AttorneyLuca
I would like to raise money through an
ICO!
If you want to go to jail, that’s
the way to go!!!
#notimpressed
“Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth”
Mike Tyson
17
Back to the Crypto Valley
@lucamerolla
Testing hypothesis: Back to Switzerland
19
??!?
Luca
I would like to open a bank
account for an ICO!
You might want to look for another
bank
@lucamerolla
Evolution of the costs to launch an ICO
20
July 2017 January 2018 July 2018
ICO Costs USD 40k - 150k USD 300k - 1M ?
Listed on Exchange
BTC 3 - 5 USD 50k - 3M ?
@lucamerolla
Utility or Security?
Even if your token is designed as a Utility token, it might be still qualified as Security depending on:
➔ The jurisdiction➔ How it is sold➔ To whom it is sold➔ When it is sold
21
Planning is a tool that works only in the presence of long and stable operating history
That’s the reason why we have agility!
22
4. Can Agility help?
@lucamerolla
Exploring Lean/Agile practices
24
Product oriented methodologies
Project oriented methodologies
Value Creation oriented frameworks
Decision-making frameworks
Agile/Lean
Product → Value creation (for customers)
ICO
➔ Product?➔ Value?
➔ Who are the customers?25
Assessing value creation
Stakeholders
Few customers but everywhere...
Understand the stakeholders
➔ Mostly targeting
investors, not users
➔ Attracts tech savvy
users
28
Decision Making
@lucamerolla
The Cynefin Framework
Best practices in ICOs are short-lived
Helps make better decisions by assessing
the situation you find yourself in
As our knowledge increases, we can move
through different domains
30
C = E
C ----------> E
C ≠ E
C E
COMPLICATEDCOMPLEX
CHAOTIC OBVIOUS
NOVEL PRACTICE
BEST PRACTICE
GOOD PRACTICE
EMERGENT PRACTICE
5. Analyzing ICOs
@lucamerolla
Crowdsource approach
Automate data gathering:
➔ Rating spreadsheets➔ Telegram channels➔ Amazon Mechanical Turk➔ Freelancer websites➔ Github hooks
32
@lucamerolla
ICO Focus Canvas
Community Development
● Custody● Usage of funds● etc…
Team
● Expertise
Customers
● Investors● Early adopters● Underwriters● etc…
Token Economics
● Hard & Soft Caps● Supply● Vesting● Sold vs Held● etc...
Advisors
● Field
Legal & Regulatory
● How is qualified and under which jurisdiction● Legislation
Partners
● Business Partners● ICO Partners● etc...
Prototype
● Hypothesis● Working● Testnet● etc...
33
Fund Management
● Custody● Usage of funds● etc…
@lucamerolla
Initial assumptions
34
3. Marketing
4. Regulatory
2. Technology
1. Business Model
4 domains chaotic ecosystem
STEP1 - The Business (Token) Model
@lucamerolla
Analyze the Whitepaper
➔ Sector➔ Experienced Team➔ Reputable Advisors➔ Market fit➔ Incentives➔ Monetary policy
36
@lucamerolla
Token Sale Phases
37
Private onlyPublic only Private + Public
They might differentiate in term of:
➔ Discount offered to investors➔ Number of rounds➔ KYC procedure➔ Network effect
@lucamerolla
The Holmium model
It’s a variation of the Freemium model adapted for the token model.
The goal is retain the value within the ecosystem by:
➔ Reducing the velocity➔ Reducing the liquidity
FREE(attract new users)
HOLD / LOCK(value within the ecosystem)
PREMIUM(generate revenues)
38
STEP2 - Technology
@lucamerolla
➔ Open Source - Be Careful!➔ Smart Contracts➔ Website➔ Working Prototype➔ Lockups
Analyze the Technology
40
STEP3 - Analyze the Marketing effort
@lucamerolla
ICO Marketing Challenges
42
Understand customers
➔ Limited number of “Potential Customers”➔ Large number of people who has never purchased a token before➔ Engagement is very high on some subjects / channels➔ Ads on Social media are not effective
STEP4 - Analyze the Legal and Regulatory aspects
@lucamerolla
Regulatory: highly unstable ecosystem
44
Everything is a Security!SEC Investor Bulletin - July 25,
2017
AML for paymentsFINMA guidance - 29 September 2017
FINMA Token Qualification!FINMA ICO guidelines - 16 February 2018
Next?
The Legal Framework
➔ The nature of ICOs is global, although it might be too expensive to focus on multiple countries
➔ Define your core building block (jurisdiction) and validate it
46
6. Discovering patterns
47
@lucamerolla
ICO Analysis Results
48
Negative or No Correlation Positive Correlation
Whitepaper Jurisdiction Team, Advisors, Market fit
Technology Open Source, Website Prototype
Marketing Social Media, Ads Storytelling, Community
Token EconomicsDiscount, Type of token, Fair Token Distribution
Token Supply, Incentives
Customer focus
➔ Advisors and Market fit have strong influence from VC and institutional players
➔ If a VC invest, it’s because there is a Market Fit
➔ Partnership is a good indicator of verified hypothesis
➔ Tokens are designed to be appealing for investors
49
@lucamerolla
The Importance of Storytelling
50
Explainer video of 1 minute is much more valuable than a Whitepaper
Different styles of communication have different meanings
“Invest in our ICO”(security)
“Buy our Token”(utility)
No need to educate people
@lucamerolla
ICO Marketing Consequences
52
Emergence of “alternative ways” to promote ICOs…
➔ “Investment” in bribing ICO reviewers➔ Fake Twitter, Telegram, Facebook followers➔ Telegram bots to have a fake enthusiastic active group➔ Contact list of crypto exchange users
@lucamerolla
ICO Practices using the Cynefin framework
Few “Best Practices”
Often in Complicated and Complex domains
➔ Requires experts and rapid response
➔ Multiple good solutions➔ The outcome might not repeat
over time
53
Best Practice Technology, Team, Storytelling
Good Practice Community, Crowdsale
Emergence Practice Token Model, Legal
Novel Practice Marketing
QUESTIONS?
54
thanks!
You can find me at:
@lucamerolla
www.lucamerolla.com