The Long View: Trends in Policies to Address Mobile
Sources Around the World
Dr. Miriam Lev-On
The LEVON Group, LLCThousand Oaks, California
UCLA Research/Policy Symposium:Lake Arrowhead, California, 17 October 2005
The issue at a glance . . .
Growth, development & energy demand Energy is the fuel for growth, an essential requirement
for economic and social development. Energy demand could double or triple by 2050 as a
result of development.
Facts and trends
The dynamics of technological change Global technological change is a lengthy process,
measured in decades. Very large systems such as transport and energy
infrastructures can take up to a century to fully develop.
How will our energy system develop?
Prim
ary, En
ergy, E
J
200
0
400
600
800
1000
1200
1920-1930’s
Coal economyCoal economy
OECD countries
Non-OECD countries
Development of oil, gas and large-scale hydro, introduction of nuclear.
Development of oil, gas and large-scale hydro, introduction of nuclear.
2000
New renewables such as wind and solar
New renewables such as wind and solar
The transition is uncertain?The transition is uncertain?
2050
Low
High
Source: IEA Scenarios
The lifetime of energy infrastructure
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 ++
The rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment
Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years
Nuclear 30 – 60 years
Coal power 45+ yrs
Hydro 75+ years
Gas turbines 25+ years
Buildings 45+++ years
Light duty vehicles trends
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total vehicles, millions
Total alternative vehiclesTotal traditional vehicles
Annual total vehicle growth of 2% p.a.Annual vehicle production growth of 2% p.a.
Large scale "alternative" vehicle manufacture starts in 2010 with 200,000 units per annum and grows at 20% p.a. thereafter.
Source: WBCSD, 2004; Mobility 2030
Air quality and public health nexus Health protective ambient air quality
standards: Pb, SO2, NO2, CO, O3 and PM (PM10 /
PM2.5) Visibility Impairment and Regional
Haze: Linked to fine particles
Air Toxics exposure outdoors Vehicles emit directly in the breathing
zone Linkage between local air quality
and global climate Transboundary transport
LA Smog
Elements for a worldwide science-based air quality management process
Identification of air quality problems by monitoring,
Development of Emissions Inventories and pollutant fingerprinting for pinpointing problem areas,
Assessment of needed emissions reductions to meet air quality goals within an appropriate attainment timelines,
Definition of needed air pollution regulations to achieve the required emission reductions,
Adoption and implementation of defined regulations,
Periodic review of the plan to improve itTel-Aviv Dust Storm
What is transportation share of emissions?
Still a major contributor, despite reductions in new vehicle emissions achieved over
the last decade
CO
NOx
Lead
VOCs
CO2
Particulates
79%
53%
13%
44%
33%
25%
SO2
7%
Source: US EPA
Why is action difficult in the transport sector?
Fragmented and self interested actors Tensions between transport and
environmental policies Increase mobility and improve goods
movement – Vs.- Reduce emissions and adverse
environmental impacts Developing countries problems
Lower incomes, poorer resource base Old fleets, low replacement rates No maintenance culture Very low quality fuels and fuel
adulteration Poor public sector administrative
capabilityCairo
International initiatives to address transportation related air quality
Plethora of initiatives have sprouted over the last decade World Bank Clean Air Initiative UN Partnership for Clean Fuels
and Vehicles US DOE Clean Cities International And the list is growing
Developing countries are rushing to adopt US or EU style emissions and fuel standards
Systematic air quality planning is sprouting in many regions
Improvement of Emissions & Efficiency
Use of Clean, Alternative & Renewable Fuels
Reduction of Vehicle Miles Traveled
Common elements of the strategies envisioned
Typical Developing Country Context Little quantitative assessment of
air quality problem High PM emissions from heavy-
duty vehicles and 2-3 wheelers Old vehicle fleets, second hand
vehicle imports, low maintenance, Lack of inspections - fuel
adulteration Weak enforcement of rules and
performance standards Poor traffic management
India
Emerging Planning Tool - International Vehicle Emissions (IVE)
Goal - Provide a more accurate method to estimate on-road emissions worldwide
Accomplishments - Developed IVE computer model for
estimating emissions Developed methodologies for vehicle
operating parameters and local fleet distribution (applied in 11 cities worldwide)
Developed methodology for on-road vehicle emission testing to improve model performance (applied in 3 cities worldwide)
Reports and Modelwww.issrc.org/ive
Courtesy: Jim Lents et. al.
IVE - Fleet Average Emission Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CO/10 VOC NOx PM*10 CO2/40
Em
issi
on R
ate
(g/k
m)
Los Angeles Nairobi Santiago Pune Mexico Sao Paulo Lima
Key Factors for Success It is critical to have goals and timelines along with a
commitment to cleaner air A science based air quality management process is
essential including regular reviews and enhancements
Air Quality Management must be integrated between pollutants, consider other media (such as water and land impacts), and follow public trends
Cost-Benefit analyses should be strengthened in order to ensure proper spending of limited public resources
Engagement of all stakeholders is a key to creating the political will to take on tough issues
The issue at a glance . . .Where do we go from here?Reshaping our energy future By 2050 energy demand will be sharply higher, Global emissions must be no higher than today and
trending downward, No single solution will deliver this change.
What should we focus on? Environmental goals, quality and equality Discussions with governments regarding the
‘fuel&vehicle’ systems approach Dissemination of new technologies for new vehicles and
for retrofits of existing ones Proper enforcement of laws and regulations Rethinking the integration of transportation and quality of
life issues