The Organic Wine Market 2013-23
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
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Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
About the IWSR
Expertise:
• 45+ years of international
beverage market research
• Specialise in just beverage
alcohol: beer, wine, spirits, cider,
mixed drinks
Breadth & Depth:
• 160 countries covered and
forecasted
• 24,000+ brand lines tracked
• 400,000+ data points
updated, including price and
duty free
Category Leadership:
• Trusted partner for beer, wine
and spirits suppliers, financial,
and non-alcoholic beverage
companies
• Forecast experts in what’s next
Market Intelligence:
• Our analysts travel the world in
order to meet over 1,600 local
professionals to capture
market trends – the ‘why’
behind the numbers
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
3
Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
Summary (1/2)
General
• Highly competitive
• Different dynamics
• Regional shifts
• Category shifts
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
4
Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
Summary (2/2)
Organic wines
• Organic wines are niche
• France and Germany
• France to drive growth
• Other markets growing
• Production growth
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
Context
6
Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
Three phases of growth in the past two decades; growth, stagnation and stability. Still & Sparking trajectories are notably different, but
smaller sparkling overshadowed by dominant still wine. Multiple factors at play
0
5
10
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Sp
ark
ling
Volu
me
– M
n b
ott
les
Sti
ll V
olu
me
– M
n b
ott
les
Still Wine Sparkling Wine
GROWTH
(+1.0% CAGR)
STAGNATION
(-0.3% CAGR)
STABILITY
(+0.0% CAGR)
Global Still & Sparkling Wine Volume 2003-23
(Mn bottles)
Source: The IWSR
Still and Sparkling wine, excludes Duty Free
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
7
Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
Overall still wine development is static, but this fact obscures dynamic shifts at a regional level.
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
-3% 0% 3% 6%
Volu
me
CA
GR
20
13
-18
Volume CAGR 2018-23
Still Wine Consumption 2023 - Mn bottles
-332
-48
27
87
97
-400 0
Europe
CIS
Asia Pacific
Americas
Africa & Middle East
Growth ‘18-23 - Mn bottles
Bubble = Forecast volume 2023
Source: The IWSR
Still wine, excludes Duty Free
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
8
Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
Overall sparkling wine growth is positive; all regions are forecast to grow to 2023 but at varying rates.
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
-3% 0% 3% 6%
Volu
me
CA
GR
20
13
-18
Volume CAGR 2018-23
Sparkling Wine Consumption 2023 - Mn bottles
9
16
42
42
77
0 50 100
Africa & Middle East
Asia Pacific
CIS
Europe
Americas
Growth ‘18-23 - Mn bottles
Source: The IWSR
Sparkling wine, excludes Duty Free
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
Bubble = Forecast volume 2023
9
Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
The global wine industry faces a complex set of challenges and opportunities
Challenges
• Generational Change
• Competition
• Climate change
• Regulations
• Route-to-market
Opportunities
• Value Growth
• Sparkling Wine
• Moderation
• Generational Change
• Geographic Expansion
• ‘Craft’
• ‘Category Blur’
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
Five Key Markets
11
Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
…But first, why focus on five markets?
Market Total Vol 2018 Total
Rank CAGR ‘13-18 Rationale
France 3.25 Bn 3 -2.0% • Leading producer of wines & organic wines
• Leading consumer of organic wines
Germany 3.10 Bn 4 -1.2%
• Biggest imported wine consumer
• Biggest sparkling wine consumer
• Biggest organic wine consumer
Italy 3.64 Bn 2 +1.1%
• Leading producer of wines & organic wines
• Second largest sparkling wine consumer
• Most consumed (imported) country of origin
Spain 1.06 Bn 9 -0.8% • Leading producer of wines & organic wines
• Second most consumed (imported) country of origin
United States 4.26 Bn 1 +1.4%
• Largest consumer of still & sparkling wines
• One of the most diverse wine markets
• One of the most receptive to change
Source: The IWSR
Still and Sparkling wine, excludes Duty Free
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
12
Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
Organic wine is strongly outperforming non-organic wines, but doing so off a low base
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1 000
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Org
an
ic V
olu
me
– M
n b
ott
les
No
n-O
rga
nic
Vo
lum
e –
Mn
bo
ttle
s
Non-Organic Organic
Wine Consumption 2013-23 – by Five Key Markets
Mn bottles
Source: The IWSR
Still and Sparkling wine, excludes Duty Free
97,3%
2,7%
Non-Organic Organic
Total Consumption 2018
15.72 Bn
Bottles +140%
-1%
Consumption – Organic Wine Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
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Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
Healthy volume growth is expected across all key markets; Spain stands out in terms of the rate of growth, but this is from a low base
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Volu
me
CA
GR
20
13
-18
Volume CAGR 2018-23
Organic Wine Consumption – by Five Key Markets
Mn bottles
20
24
38
38
90
0 50 100
Italy
Spain
Germany
United States
France
Growth ‘18-23 - Mn bottles
Consumption – Organic Wine
Bubble = Forecast volume 2023
Source: The IWSR
Still and Sparkling wine, excludes Duty Free
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
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Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
The value outlook diverges from volume as organic wines plays in different markets price points across key markets. The change in
dynamic between Germany and the United States is noticeable.
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Valu
e C
AG
R 2
01
3-1
8
Value CAGR 2018-23
Organic Wine Consumption – by Five Key Markets
Mn €
244
292
293
561
1 153
0 1 000
Italy
Spain
Germany
United States
France
Consumption – Organic Wine
Bubble = Forecast value 2023
Source: The IWSR
Still and Sparkling wine, excludes Duty Free
Growth ‘18-23 - Mn €
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
15
Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
Red wine dominates across the five key markets and is driven by Germany and France. Even in the largest organic white wine consumer,
Germany, white is behind red in volume terms. Rosé is developing fast off a low base, notably in the US and Spain.
0%
25%
50%
0
30
60
90
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
US
A
Ita
ly
Sp
ain
Vo
lum
e %
CA
GR
‘13
-18
Vo
lum
e –
Mn
bo
ttle
s
0%
25%
50%
0
30
60
90
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
US
A
Ita
ly
Sp
ain
Vo
lum
e %
CA
GR
‘13
-18
Vo
lum
e –
Mn
bo
ttle
s
0%
25%
50%
0
30
60
90
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
US
A
Ita
ly
Sp
ain
Vo
lum
e %
CA
GR
’13
-18
Vo
lum
e –
Mn
bo
ttle
s
Organic Still Wine Consumption by colour – by Five Key Countries Volume 2018 vs 5yr CAGR
Mn bottles
Red White Rosé
Consumption – Organic Still Wine
Source: The IWSR
Still wine only, excludes Duty Free
= Volume 2018 = CAGR 2013-18
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
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Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
Production – Key points and caveats
• Dark area
• Multiple sources
• Conflation of certified organic and
organic
• Non-disclosure
• Regulations
Production – Organic Wine Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
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Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
Organic wine has experienced strong average annual growth in production over the past five years. This rate of expansion is expected to remain
constant over the forecast period.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Spain Italy France United States Germany
Pro
du
ctio
n –
Mn
bo
ttle
s
Organic Wine Production – by Five Key Countries
(Mn bottles)
CAGR
2013-18
9.4%
8.5%
7.3%
16.9%
4.8%
3.9%
2018-23
9.3%
7.9%
11.9%
11.2%
4.4%
4.0%
Production – Organic Wine
Source: The IWSR
Still and Sparkling wine
Projections 2020-23
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
The Opportunity
19
Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
The Opportunity
Opportunities
• Value Growth
• Sparkling Wine
• Moderation
• Generational Change
• Geographic Expansion
• ‘Craft’
• ‘Category Blur’
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
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Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
2013 2018 2023
Geographic expansion
Volume (Bottles)
< 0.5m
0.5m – 1m
1m – 2m
2m – 10m
10m – 50m
> 50m
Commissioned by SudVinBio for MillésimeBio 27-29 January 2020
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Copyright 2019 – The IWSR – For client use only. Not to be reproduced or resold without permission from the IWSR.
Any questions?