The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
THE PERCEIVED IMPACT OF CLIMATE THE PERCEIVED IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SMALLHOLDER DAIRY CHANGE ON SMALLHOLDER DAIRY
PRODUCTION IN NORTHERN MALAWIPRODUCTION IN NORTHERN MALAWI
Victor KasuloFaculty of Environmental Sciences
Mzuzu UniversityMalawi
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Outline Introduction
Contribution of dairy farming to climate change Vulnerability of dairy farming to climate change Objectives
Materials and Methods Data collection Data type Data analysis
Results and Discussion Perceptions of respondents on change in rainfall
pattern over timeEffect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy
farming
Conclusion
Acknowledgement
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Introduction
Contribution of dairy farming to climate change
The livestock sector contributes 18% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions
Global dairy production accounts for 4 percent of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Introduction
Vulnerability of dairy farming to climate change
Warmer and drier conditions increase the likelihood of heat stress in cattle
Changes in rainfall patterns affects pasture growth
Droughts lead to water shortage
Climate change affects disease occurrence
Climate change increases the risk for geographically restricted rare breed populations
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Introduction
Objective
Aanalyze the perceived impact of changes in rainfall patterns on water availability, disease occurrences, pasture production, and in turn on milk production by smallholders farmers in Northern Malawi.
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
193,834 cattle
3,782 dairy cattle
700 dairy farmers
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Materials and Methods
Data Collection
Baseline Survey
Covered Mzuzu Agricultural Development Division
Conducted in the three districts of MzimbaRumphi, and Nkhata-Bay
Involved 13 Extension Planning Areas
Targeted 40% of dairy farmers
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Materials and Methods
Data Type
Perceptions on change in rainfall pattern
Impact of changes in rainfall pattern over: Pasture production,
Disease occurrence,Parasite occurrence, Water availability and Milk production.
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Materials and Methods
Data Analysis
Descriptive statistics such as percentages and frequencies (SPSS)
Multi-nominal (logistic) regression model
Categorical dependent variable = Milk Production
Categorical independent variables:Water availability, Disease occurrences, and Pasture production
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Results and Discussion
40
32
22
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Increased Decreased Constant No idea
Rainfall pattern
Per
cent
age
of r
espo
nden
ts
Perceptions of respondents on change in rainfall pattern over time
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming
Rainfall pattern
Respondents (%)
Effect on dairy farming Increased Decreased Constant No idea
Increased Pasture production 73.7 9.6 14.0 2.6
Disease occurrence 37.7 22.8 26.3 13.2
Parasite occurrence 35.1 21.9 30.7 12.3
Water availability 70.2 5.3 21.9 2.6
Milk production 30.7 19.3 12.3 37.7
Decreased Pasture production 13.3 65.6 20.0 1.1
Disease occurrence 23.3 36.7 26.7 13.3
Parasite occurrence 20.0 43.3 30.0 6.7
Water availability 10.0 35.6 54.4 0.0
Milk production 16.7 34.4 18.9 30.0
Constant Pasture production 42.9 12.7 42.9 1.6
Disease occurrence 23.8 34.9 27 14.3
Parasite occurrence 23.8 38.1 25.4 12.7
Water availability 34.9 7.9 49.2 7.9
Milk production 22.2 27.0 9.5 41.3
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming
Change in
Milk
Production
Variable B Std.
Error
Wald Sig. Exp
(B)
95% Confidence
Interval for Exp (B)
Lower
Bound
Upper
Bound
Decrease Intercept -0.821 0.390 4.425 0.035
Water = 0 1.657 0.709 5.465 0.019 5.244 1.307 21.043
Water =1 1.842 0.622 8.768 0.003 6.309 1.864 21.351
Disease =0 -0.676 0.531 1.620 0.203 0.508 0.179 1.441
Disease = 1 -0.420 0.603 0.485 0.486 0.657 0.201 2.144
Pasture = 0 1.427 0.617 5.352 0.021 4.167 1.244 13.964
Pasture = 1 0.246 0.611 0.162 0.687 1.279 0.386 4.233
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming (cont.)
Change in
Milk
Production
Variable B Std.
Error
Wald Sig. Exp
(B)
95% Confidence
Interval for Exp
(B)
Lower
Bound
Upper
Bound
Constant Intercept -1.974 0.578 11.670 0.001
Water = 0 -0.326 1.048 0.097 0.756 0.722 0.093 5.630
Water = 1 2.095 0.674 9.660 0.002 8.123 2.168 30.432
Disease = 0 0.387 0.688 0.316 0.574 1.472 0.383 5.666
Disease = 1 1.437 0.710 4.092 0.043 4.207 1.046 16.926
Pasture = 0 1.063 0.724 2.159 0.142 2.896 0.701 11.958
Pasture = 1 -0.654 0.709 0.850 0.357 0.520 0.130 2.088
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Conclusion
Farmers in the study area do not consider climate change as having any significant influence on
dairy farming.
Climate change has negative effects o on livestock production in general and dairy production in particular.
Need further studies in the vulnerability and adaptation of smallholder dairy farmers to
climate change in the area.
Need for development and utilisation of improved breeds and alternative sources of feed.
The 5The 5thth
All Africa Conference on Animal AgricultureAll Africa Conference on Animal Agriculture Commercialization of Livestock Agriculture in Africa: Challenges and opportunities October 25-28, 2010.
Acknowledgement
We thank the Department for International Development (DFID) through the Development Partnership for Higher Education for funding this research.