CONSUMER SENTIMENT BAROMETER
The Surprising Resilience of Emerging-Market Consumers
Consumer sentiment remains resilient despite second and third waves of the pandemic
1The prolonged crisis is creating financial pressures on consumers across emerging markets
2Many of the new behaviors adopted by consumers during the pandemic are proving to be sticky
3The pandemic is taking an invisible toll as consumers face mental health pressures and avoid medical facilities for many illnesses
4A high level of vaccination acceptance across emerging markets offers a silver lining for the future
5
More Than a Year into the Pandemic, Five Key Themes Are Evident Across Emerging Markets
Source: BCG analysis.
Sources: Our World in Data; Johns Hopkins University.Note: Cumulative cases are as of June 29, 2021.
COVID-19 Cases Are Resurging in Many Emerging Markets as New Virus Variants Spread
420
68
10121416182022242628303234
Total cumulative cases (millions)
April2020
July2020
October2020
January2021
April2021
July2021
US
India
Brazil
UKArgentinaIndonesia
SingaporeThailandPhilippines
High COVID-19 Positivity Rates and Low Testing Rates Suggest That the Situation in Some Countries May Be Even Worse Than It Seems
Sources: Our World in Data; Johns Hopkins University. 1Depending on the country, “cumulative tests” refers to total people tested, total samples tested, or total tests done. 2Data for May and June 2021.
Cumulative tests per 1,000 people1
COVID-19 positivity rate (%)2
High testing, low positivity rate
Low testing, low positivity rate
High testing, high positivity rate
Low testing, high positivity rate
ArgentinaColombia
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
302510 15 20
Malaysia
ThailandVietnamUgandaRwanda
KenyaSouth Africa
CanadaRussia
Spain
Japan
Chile
India
South AmericaAsia North AmericaAfrica Europe
Indonesia PhillipinesMexico
Germany
Ethiopia BrazilPeru
Singapore
US
UK
Italy
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research from March 2020 through June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 4,500 respondents per country, depending on population.Note: Questions asked: “Do you agree with each of the following about coronavirus? a. ‘I’m not going out of the house fearing risk to health/I’m trying to avoid public spaces as much as possible.’ b. ‘There will be an economic recession due to the coronavirus.’”
Despite the Rising Number of Cases, Consumer Sentiment Remains Resilient and Is No Worse Than It Was at the Onset of the Pandemic
IndiaAgreement (%) Cases (thousands)
100 30,000
15,000
0March2020
May2020
May2021
August2020
75
50
Phillipines China
United StatesIndonesiaBrazil
25
Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)
100 2,000
1,000
0April2020
May2020
May2021
July2020
75
50
25
Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)
100 200
100
0March2020
May2020
May2021
July 2020
75
50
25
Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)
100 30,000
15,000
0March2020
April2020
June2021
November2020
75
50
25
Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)
100 3,000
1,500
0April2020
May2020
May2021
July2020
75
50
25
Agreement (%) Cases (thousands)
100 40,000
20,000
0April2020
July2020
May2021
August2020
75
50
25
Fear for personal health Fear of recession Cumulative cases in thousands
The Prolonged Nature of the Pandemic Is Hitting Incomes—and Spending—Across Emerging Markets
Phillipines India Malaysia Brazil Indonesia China Vietnam Singapore
DEVELOPEDECONOMY
COMPARISON
Change inhouseholdincomestated byconsumers1
–40% –48%
–22%–37% –43% –46%
–21%–36%
–44%–58%
–25% –29%–47% –52%
–40% –37%
–21% –20%
–4%–15%
–28% –28%
1%
–3%
0%
–4% –2% –5%
–30% –34%–25% –25%
Change inhouseholdspendingstated byconsumers1
GDPgrowthin 2020
–9.5% –8.0% –5.6% –4.4% –2.1% 2.3% 4.2% –5.4%
October 2020–March 2021 compared to pre-COVID-19 Today compared to pre-COVID-19
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.1Respondents were asked from October 2020 through March 2021, as well as from late May through early June 2021, to indicate how their household income and spending had changed compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak. The percentages are not based on official GDP change or employment data.
Consumers Have Cut Their Spending in Discretionary Categories and Focused More on Health and Household Care
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.Note: Values shown are the averages across markets in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Question: “How do you expect your spending to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?”
–30
–20
–10
0
10
20
40
30
–45 –25 –20 –15 –10 –5 5 10–30–40 –35 0 20 25 30 3515
Net change in spending in April 2020 vs. pre-COVID-19 (%)
Chan
ge in
con
sum
er s
pend
ing
May
202
1 vs
. Apr
il 20
20 (p
erce
ntag
e po
ints
)
Temporary blips:short-lived acceleration
New consumer priorities: sustainedacceleration in growth trajectory
Signs of life: categoriesrecovering at different speeds
Hit hard: recovery likely to be drawn out
IMPR
OVI
NG
DET
ERIO
RAT
ING
POSITIVENEGATIVE
Packaged food
Sports equipment
Cars
TobaccoLuxury products
Public transport
Alcohol
Eatingat restaurants
Nonprescriptionmedications
Cosmetics
Scooters/bikes
Home construction
ClothingStaples
Streamingservices
Mobile phones
Healthinsurance
Health supplements
Personal care
Household care
Fresh foodsMobileservices
Homefurnishings
Toys and games
Education
Food delivery
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research, late May through early June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.1Respondents were asked to indicate how their frequency of doing various activities had changed after the onset of COVID-19 versus before it.
Some New Consumer Behaviors Prompted by the Pandemic Are Sticking More Than a Year Later
New shopping habits
Adoption of digital tools
Focus on personal health
Shop from online retailers
Buy from chat groups
Use digital wallets
Subscribe to streaming apps
Buy healthier food
Use nutritional supplements
Increase in usage compared to before the pandemic (%)1
50
46
51
52
34
42
More than Half of Consumers in Emerging Markets Feel That the Pandemic Is Adversely Affecting Their Mental Health
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research, late May through early June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.1Respondents were asked to what extent they agree with the following statement: "I feel my mental health is suffering due to the pandemic." Agreement = 4 or 5 on a scale of 1 to 5.
Respondents who agree that their mental health is suffering due to the pandemic, by country (%)1
Respondents who agree that their mental health is suffering due to the pandemic, by generation (%)1
54
Malaysia Gen Z(18–25 years old)
Millennials(26–40 years old)
Gen X(41–55 years old)
Baby boomers(56 years or older)
Philippines Indonesia Thailand Vietnam China Singapore
5244
6255
4348
51 5347
41AVG51
AVG51
DEVELOPEDECONOMY
COMPARISON
As Many People Avoid Health Care Facilities, the Pandemic May Be Taking a Hidden Toll That Will Become Visible over Time
8591 89 92 93
7679 AVG
84
DEVELOPEDECONOMY
COMPARISON
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research, late May through early June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.1Respondents were asked if they had reduced their visits to health care facilities, such as clinics and hospitals, since the pandemic started compared to previous years.2Respondents who said that they had reduced their visits to health care facilities were asked to indicate the major reasons for doing so.
People who have reduced their visits to health care facilities (%)1
Reasons for avoiding health care facilities(% of respondents)2
Malaysia Philippines Indonesia Thailand Vietnam China Singapore
I am worried about contracting COVID-19 at health care facilities
The hospital is too busy
I am healthier than in previous years
I wanted to, but could not due to government restrictions on movement
I cannot afford the cost of health care facilities
I cannot afford the cost of transport
Other
78
26
23
21
12
6
2
DEVELOPEDECONOMY
COMPARISON
The High Level of Vaccine Acceptance, Especially in Countries with the Most Serious Outbreaks, Is Reason for Long-Term Optimism
Source: BCG CCI Consumer Sentiment research, late May through early June 2021; samples ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 respondents per country, depending on population.Note: “Adopters” responded, “Yes, I would be willing to take the vaccine”; “hesitant” responded, “I am not sure, I may/may not take the vaccine”; “rejectors” responded, “I would not be willing to take the vaccine.”1Respondents were asked to indicate their willingness to take the COVID-19 vaccine if it were made available. 2Our World in Data, as of June 29, 2021. 3Our World in Data, as of June 29, 2021.
Malaysia Philippines Indonesia ThailandIndiaBrazil Vietnam Singapore
Adopters Hesitant Rejectors
8 10
70
1622
82
9
69
2512
22
4
23
7
13
2
8
5
4
4
<1
<1 36
11
12
87
Vaccine acceptance by respondents (%)1
4 6 2 5
87 8447
41
13
83
6431
63
Casesper 1,000people2
Receivedboth dosesof vaccine(%)3