1. April 22nd, 2015 Portfolio Management & Analytics
Services The Value of Data & Analytics Driven Intelligence in
Operating Socially Viable Lending Portfolios EEDE 20th Banking
Forum
2. Effective Data Capturing
3. -10.6 -7.8 -2 1.4 1.7 2.2 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Greece Private Consumption We Capture Data
from: 1. The Challenging Greek Macroeconomic Environment -8.9 -6.6
-3.9 01 2.5 3.6 18 25 28 27 25 22 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RealGDPGrowth(%) Year Real GDP Growth and Unemployment GDP
Unemployment Rate -11.8 -11 -3.9 0.8 2 3.2 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2
0 2 4 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Greece Domestic Demand 3Source:
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2015/pdf/ee1_en.pdf
Signs of growth appear in the 2nd Quarter of 2014 mainly due to an
increase in customer spending and tourism income. This is reflected
on real GDP growth and Unemployment. Forecast Forecast Forecast
Forecasts illustrated in these graphs are challenged as domestic
demand and private consumption are immobilized until agreement with
its partner institutions is reached.
4. 39% 12% 45% 04% 00% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Decreased Increased
Remained the same N/A Investments in H2 2014 We Capture Data from:
2. The Volatile Corporate Environment 4 59% 08% 33% 00% 00% 10% 20%
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Reduced Improved Remained unchanged N/A
Financials in 2014 24% 37% 31% 08% 00% 05% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
40% Profitable Losses Stable N/A Companies Balance sheets in 2014
53% 19% 28% 00% 00% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Decreased Increased
Remained the same N/A Turnover in H2 2014 55% 19% 25% 00% 00% 10%
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Decreased Increased Remained the same N/A
Demand in H2 2014 Source:
http://www.imegsevee.gr/images/ereunes/febr_2015/parousiasi_ereuna_febr_2015.pdf
37% of Companies had losses in 2014. More than 60% had significant
reductions in their Financials. Over 50% of Companies saw a
negative impact in their Turnover and Demand in 2014. Around 39%
had decreased their investments.
5. We Capture Data from: 3. The Shocked Household Environment 5
0.90% 02% 22% 31% 44% 00% Family income changes compared to 2013,
how much has your total family income been decreased? Significantly
increased Not Significantly increased Remained the same Not
significantly decreased Significanty decreased N/A 55.50% 03% 42%
00% 50.30% 03% 47% 00% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Even with
difficulties has been enough to cover main obligations Managed to
save a certain amount It wasn't enough and more money was necessary
N/A PERCEPTION IN REGARDS TO HOUSEHOLD INCOME - 2013 & 2014
2013 2014 65% 31% 19% 10% 05% 70% 33% 25% 13% 06% 0% 10% 20% 30%
40% 50% 60% 70% 80% I used money out of savings I borrowed from
relatives/friends I used credit cards I liquidised / sold part of
private property I addressed myself to pawnshop PAYMENT METHOD TO
COVER OBLIGATIONS - 2013 AND 2014 2013 2014 64.30% 61% 48% 24% 23%
02% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Tax obligations Fixed household
needs/ maintenance expenditure Loan payments Social security
contributions Credit Cards Other REASON OF ARREARS 2014 2014
Source: http://www.gsevee.gr/meletes-2/484-eisodima-dekembrios2014#
75% of households saw their income decrease
6. 8.7 5.7 2.1 Greek Banks: Forborne Loans in bn Business
Mortgage Consumer 47 20 13 64 27 15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Business
Mortgage Consumer Inbn Greek Banks: +90dpd and Total Non Performing
Exposures (NPEs) +90dpd Total NPEs We Capture Data from: 4. The
Daily Banking Transactions 6Source: Piraeus Bank, Alpha Bank,
Eurobank, National Bank of Greece 126 128 129 130 124 160 157 156
155 156 42 62 82 102 122 142 162 182 121 122 123 124 125 126 127
128 129 130 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Loans(inbillions)
Deposits(inbillions) Greece Deposits and Loans Evolution Deposits
Loans In 4Q14, there is a significant drop of Deposits 90 billion
in 4Q14 are more than 90 dpds 16.5 billion in 4Q14 are Forborne
Loans
7. The Analytics Intelligence Value
8. Advance Analytics Promote Business Decision Making 8
Simulation Modeling Multivariate Regression & Segmentation
Modeling Data Analysis & Dashboard Reporting Predict What will
be my customers/ portfolio value if I switch strategies? Forecast
What parameters affect my Customer/ portfolio performance Today?
What is likely to be my Future customer/ portfolio Performance?
Understand What is my customer/ portfolio value? How does my
customer/ portfolio perform? What is its best performing aspect?
Why does my customer/ portfolio perform in this way? HIGH LOW
Complexity Return on Investment What is the most effective action
to maximize gains? What might And it is likely to happen Monitor
what is currently happening Understand the business problem
Investigate the reason of past performance
9. Data Driven Analytics Fuel change in Portfolio Management
9
10. 10 We Secure Socially Viable Offerings 06% 01% 02% 02% 07%
06% 05% 04% 68% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0% 10% 20% 30%
40% 50% 60% 70% 0 dpds 1 - 29 dpds 30 - 59 dpds 60 - 89 dpds 90 -
119 dpds 120 - 149 dpds 150 - 179 dpds 180 - 209 dpds 210+ dpds
ExpectedLossas%oftotal OutstandingBalanceas%ofTotal Distribution of
Outstanding Balance and Expected Loss by Delinquency Days for a
Retail Book % to total Out. Balance % of Total EL Restructuring
effort Profitability Marketing Promotions must incentivize and
reward customers Recoveries must not lose customers Typical Banks
Retail Portfolio Delinquency Profile must help customers
Profitable: Reward, Up Sale and Refinance Forgotten: Improve
offering Not take ups : Skip from Offering Somehow Paying:
Encourage payments, Reward, Allow customized offerings Willing but
Unable: Allow customized seasonal or sector related offering
Unwilling - Strategic Defaulters: accelerate actions let go
Delinquent CustomersPerforming & very Early Delinquent
Customers
11. 11 Advanced Analytics Experts and Machines Work Together:
his is Qualcos Philosophy Augmented Intelligence
12. Our Augmented Intelligence Offering in Banking Operations
12 ADVANCED ANALYTICS METODOLOGIES, UTILISING CUSTOMERS PAST CREDIT
BEHAVIOR AND WILLINGNESS OF PAYMENT PREDICT FUTURE CUSTOMER
BEHAVIORS Advanced Prediction Tools Dynamic Operational Segments
ANALYTICS DRIVEN SEGMENTATION TOOLS ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE TARGETING
AND OPTIMISED OUTCOMES. Tailor Made Solutions APPLY THE APPROPRIATE
SOLUTION TO EACH CUSTOMER SEGMENT BY OPTIMISING PORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT INDIVIDUAL
CUSTOMER NEEDS. Real Time Monitoring and Recalibration ASSESS AND
ANALYSE PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE TO MAKE THE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS AND
CORRECTIONS THAT WILL FURTHER IMPROVE RESULTS.