The Vision Thing: Some thoughts on preferred futures
Graham H May
Futures Skills
Futures Skills
What future generations need from us
Peace and securityA sustainable environmentAvoidance of catastropheGood governanceThe conservation, enlargement and dissemination of knowledgeThe well-being of children, particularly the elimination of povertyWidespread, life-long learning
Futures Skills
What future generations need from us
a pretty obvious list
a preferred present
are we there yet?
Futures Skills
Peace and security
whose peace ?historical evidence
Pax Romana, Pax Britannica, Pax Americana all based on military power George Orwell
the future Pax Chinoise or Indienne
Futures Skills
Avoidance of catastrophe
“A proper warning was not given. If we had given the warning and then it hadn’t happened, then it would have been the death of tourism in those areas.”
An earlier warning
Crying wolf
Which catastrophe?
Futures Skills
Avoidance of catastrophe
Differential impact of the tsunamiMangroves reduced the impact
Preferences for redevelopmentLocal people or tourists
Futures Skills
Tourism
one of the world’s largest service industries
the world’s largest employer, employing 1 in 10 workers worldwide
accounts for one third of global services exports and over 6% of all exports
a preferred future for many
but maybe not all
the importance of values
Futures Skills
Lisbon Strategy
“To become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs, and greater social cohesion.” What if you are American, Asian, African, or Australian?Are the aims compatible?
Futures Skills
Free and fair trade
interpretation is critical evidence from the past opinions about the future WTO panel on Cross-border Gambling
“Members regulatory sovereignty is an essential pillar of the progressive liberalization of trade in services, but this sovereignty ends whenever rights of other Members under GATS are impaired.”
Antigua v. USA “ Without the enormous pressure generated by the
American financial services sector…there would have been no services agreement and therefore perhaps no Uruguay Round and no WTO.”
Futures Skills
Transport
a crucial service that supports our economy and our life styles
Between 2000 and 2030 passenger transport in the EU-15 will grow by 50%, and freight transport by over 80%. 75%, will be by road. Aviation will double its share of passenger movement to over 11%
OK but
Futures Skills
Futures Skills
An Ideal (most desirable) scenario
Based on a shift in values towards environmental sustainability and a belief that environmental quality and economic growth are not compatible this vision of a preferred future sees a significant decrease in transport demand for both passenger and freight transport with technology substituting for mobility through e-commerce and e-work.
Foresight for Transport
Futures Skills
Preferred Futures
the “s” is crucial
our preferred future is not the only one
whose preferred vision dominates, what the preferred vision is, when it is envisaged it should be realised and how to bring it into effect
Futures Skills
Evaluating preferred futures
Whose preferred future is it? Whose interests does it promote and whose will be damaged by it? Why, by whom and how has it been prepared? What is the timescale involved? How might it be achieved? What might prevent it being achieved? Does it conflict with other preferred futures and can these conflicts be reconciled? Where might unforeseen results occur ?
Futures Skills
A paradox
“Where there is no vision the people perish” Proverbs 29:18
but
“We would often be sorry if our wishes were gratified” Aesop
Futures Skills
The role of the futurist
likened to that of the fool in the medieval court to ask the awkward questions
ask the awkward questions about our visions of the future Many of the apparently preferred futures of governments, businesses and others in responsible positions today suggest to me that the futurist as fool still has an important part to play