Duration: July 2013
most mentioned political leaders july 2013
#indiasmostmentioned
As the countdown to the general elections begins, social media conversations around possible candidates for the top job and other political leaders have gathered momentum . Blogworks Most Mentioned Political Leaders Index is a monthly barometer of public mood and conversations about the top political leaders on social media in India.
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Duration: July 2013
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Background
The 4th edition of ‘Blogworks India’s Most Mentioned Political Leaders’ analyses online mentions of the top 20 political leaders being talked about, during July 2013 in comparison to June 2013. Out of the top 20, we identified seven leaders basis their share of mentions in online conversations and basis their names being compared for the top job amongst stakeholders online. We have undertaken a further analysis on public sentiment and key conversation drivers.
We will be bringing to you monthly updates up to the elections.
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executive summary
• Since January 2013, mentions of Narendra Modi have seen the highest and most consistent increase; for all other politicians, the shift in mentions has been fluctuating topically every month
• Amidst online voices, it appears to be advantage Modi as against his contender in the 2nd spot Rahul Gandhi. Where Narendra Modi's mentions increased by the rate of 126% since January 2013, Rahul Gandhi's mentions decreased by the rate of 2% in the same period.
• In the period June-July, Modi continues to be at the top of the most mentioned political leaders index with almost nine times more buzz than Rahul Gandhi
• Digvijay Singh made an entry in the top most mentioned political leaders, he moved from 20th spot in June to 7th spot in July 2013. Criticizing his stand on Batla House encounter, BJP Spokesperson Meenakshi Lekhi said the whole country stands together with Martyr MC Sharma. Her statement was widely shared by people.
• Digvijay Singh’s disparaging statement against his fellow party leader Meenakshi Natarajan got criticism by people and media, thus taking him to the 7th spot.
• ‘Speculation around Telagana contributed to ‘highest mentions under Law, order & internal affairs’ for Sonia Gandhi
• Sushma Swaraj has consistently been in the top 20 since January 2013, however, in July she dropped out of top 20.
• July saw a surge in negative sentiment for Rahul Gandhi – increasing from 27% in June to 82% in July 2013.‘Corruption’ was the most mentioned theme for Rahul Gandhi in July 2013 and 89% of these mentions under ‘Corruption’ were negative
• ‘Development and economy’ which was the plank on which Narendra Modi had entered conversations has dropped over a period of time, while conversations under ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ have increased in July
• Arvind Kejriwal appears to be moving beyond ‘corruption’ as his key election pivot. His Azad Maidan rally in support of 14,000 homeless families and comments on the Batla encounter contributed to highest mentions under’ ‘Law, order & internal affairs
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Overall buzz
Themes & SENTIMENT
Narendra Modi: ‘Development and economy’ which was the plank on which Narendra Modi had entered conversations has dropped over a period of time, while conversations on ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ have increased, in July 2013, ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ was the most mentioned theme for Narendra Modi.
For Modi, the positive mentions under ‘Caste & religion’ have been increasing while negative mentions have seen a decline, since January 2013. Since his speech at Vibrant Gujarat, people perceived him as a leader, moving away from ‘Caste & religion’ based agendas in January. Narendra Modi’s name was cleared by Special Investigation Team (SIT) from Gujarat riots which generated positive reactions. Further, comments of online influencers like Suhel Seth, Anupam Kher, Harsha Bhogle and Chetan Bhagat expressing disappointment over 65 MPs writing to US President Obama to maintain the current policy of denying visa to Modi contributed to these positive reactions resulting in a monthly drop of 1% in negative sentiment since January under ‘Caste and religion’.
The trend of increasing positive mentions and decreasing negative mentions have also been observed for ‘Development and economy’.
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Rahul Gandhi: July saw a surge in negative sentiment for Gandhi – increasing from 27% in June to 82% in July 2013.‘Corruption’ was the most mentioned theme for Rahul Gandhi in July 2013 and 89% of these mentions under ‘Corruption’ were negative. He was termed as the ‘biggest beneficiary of corrupt dynastic politics’ and he has also been mentioned for his alleged role in the Railgate scam.
The news of Youth Congress activists beating up AIYF activists including women drew negative mentions for him.
Negative mentions under ‘Caste & religion’ increased by 158%. This surge in July under ‘Caste & religion’ from June could be attributed to the conversations where people termed Rahul Gandhi’s visit to a Dalit home as ‘drama’, instead of visiting the homes of the victims of the mid-day meal tragedy.
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Themes & SENTIMENT
Sonia Gandhi: ‘Corruption’ related mentions continued to dominate conversations for Sonia Gandhi. BJP spokesperson, Meenakshi Lekhi's statement mocking Sonia Gandhi and expressing support for Batla House encounter martyr MC Sharma's family was widely shared by people online.
‘Law, order & internal affairs’ was the highest talked about theme for her in July 2013 followed by ‘Caste & religion’ and ‘Development & economy’.
People spoke negatively about Sonia Gandhi for not giving her go-ahead on the creation of Telangana, comparing the situation to 2000, when 3 new states were created by the government headed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
Manmohan Singh: ‘Development & economy’ was the most talked about theme for him in July 2013 His perceived lack of a stand on the Food Security Bill drew negative mentions under ‘Development & economy’.
He also continued to draw flak online for his silence and inaction on important issues such as the creation of Telangana and the blasts at Bodh Gaya.
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Themes & SENTIMENT
Arvind Kejriwal: ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ was the most talked about theme for Arvind Kejriwal in July 2013. His rally at Azad Maidan in Mumbai on 11 July, 2013 seeking justice for 14,000 homeless families drew positive mentions, and negative mentions arose due to his terming the Batla House encounter fake.
Nitish Kumar: Mentions under ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ for Nitish Kumar increased in July 2013. with people mentioning him negatively in conversations around the blasts at Bodh Gaya.
People spoke negatively about him given his undue focus on his image as a secular leader and inability to focus on issues such as the Bodh Gaya blasts and the mid-day meal tragedy in Bihar.
Sushma Swaraj: Mentions for Sushma Swaraj decreased in the month of July, as compared to June 2013.
Her statement after the Bodh Gaya blasts about not allowing a Bamiyan demolition in India, drew negative comments from people, who reacted, reminding her about the Babri Masjid demolition.
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Duration: July 2013
buzz and rank summary – JUNE 2013 vs. JULY 2013
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Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Sonia Gandhi
Manmohan Singh Arvind Kejriwal
Nitish Kumar Digvijay Singh
LK Advani Rajnath Singh
Mayawati Atal Bihari Vajpayee
Anna Hazare Mamata Banerjee
Manish Tewari Shakeel Ahmed Omar Abdullah Shashi Tharoor
Kapil Sibal Ajay Maken
P chidambaram
Jun-13
Jul-13
Duration: July 2013
buzz and rank summary – JUNE 2013 vs. JULY 2013 Shakeel Ahmed’s remark linking the formation of the Indian Mujahideen with the 2002 Gujarat riots led to a significant number of conversations around him, and he moved up into the top 20 in July 2013. He had no mentions in June.
Shashi Tharoor moved to the 17th position in July 2013, up from the 42nd position in June. Mentions around him were people’s reactions to his statement saying Kashmiri pandits left Kashmir due to BJP policies, and comparison of his ‘cattle class’ statement with Narendra Modi’s ‘puppies’ statement.
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Rank Buzz June July Political Leader June July
1 1 Narendra Modi 974,978 902,021 3 2 Rahul Gandhi 105,991 93,134 5 3 Sonia Gandhi 64,205 60,009 6 4 Manmohan Singh 52,403 51,827 7 5 Arvind Kejriwal 27,209 30,764 4 6 Nitish Kumar 65,780 29,305 20 7 Digvijay Singh 5,782 25,724 2 8 LK Advani 206,142 24,782 8 9 Rajnath Singh 21,617 18,873 21 10 Mayawati 5,775 14,498 9 11 Atal Bihari Vajpayee 15,603 13,961 16 12 Anna Hazare 7,549 13,217 11 13 Mamata Banerjee 10,808 11,786 26 14 Manish Tewari 5,083 10,838 125 15 Shakeel Ahmed 0 10,014 18 16 Omar Abdullah 6,219 9,281 42 17 Shashi Tharoor 1,857 8,088 34 18 Kapil Sibal 3,441 7,620 31 19 Ajay Maken 3,924 7,277 44 20 P Chidambaram 1,734 6,729
Duration: July 2013
channels
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Twitter continued to be the top channel in July 2013.
Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi Sonia Gandhi
Manmohan Singh Arvind Kejriwal
Nitish Kumar Digvijay Singh
LK Advani Rajnath Singh
Mayawati Atal Bihari Vajpayee
Anna Hazare Mamata Banerjee
Manish Tewari Shakeel Ahmed Omar Abdullah Shashi Tharoor
Kapil Sibal Ajay Maken
P Chidambaram
YOUTUBE
BLOGS
FORUMS
FLICKR
AGGREGATORS
MAINSTREAM MEDIA
TUMBLR
YAHOO
Duration: July 2013
depth of engagement
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Total mentions Total reach on Twitter Unique authors Narendra Modi 902,021 174,191,754 215,618
Rahul Gandhi 93,134 27,116,762 22,808
Sonia Gandhi 60,009 18,970,957 14,721
Manmohan Singh 51,827 22,035,260 12,522
Arvind Kejriwal 30,764 9,911,617 6,728
Nitish Kumar 29,305 10,810,063 7,500
Digvijay Singh 25,724 8,827,908 9,685
LK Advani 24,782 20,729,267 8,108
Rajnath Singh 18,873 16,235,782 6,812
Mayawati 14,498 11,852,833 5,586
Atal Bihari Vajpayee 13,961 8,605,949 4,783
Anna Hazare 13,217 8,851,921 5,683
Mamata Banerjee 11,786 6,991,862 2,371
Manish Tewari 10,838 7,749,038 4,688
Shakeel Ahmed 10,014 7,758,510 3,937
Omar Abdullah 9,281 4,876,188 2,307
Shashi Tharoor 8,088 11,175,169 3,969
Kapil Sibal 7,620 5,937,670 3,205
Ajay Maken 7,277 8,333,360 3,491
P Chidambaram 6,729 3,710,297 809
While the overall mentions of Narendra Modi declined in July, his total reach and the total number of unique authors talking about him increased.
Mentions of Ajay Maken increased by 85% in July. 2013. His statement asking about Gujarat’s contribution in the field of sports drew reactions from people which contributed to his mentions.
Duration: July 2013
themes
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Duration: July 2013
themes by sentiment
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Duration: July 2013
buzz
Buzz for Narendra Modi decreased by 7% in July 2013.
Several people on social media highlighted and appreciated Narendra Modi for being honest and being secular, many expressed disappointment over 65 MPs writing to US President Barack Obama to maintain the current policy of denying visa to Modi, and these drove conversations for him.
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92,073
1,36,060
1,39,525
5,07,163
4,21,321
9,74,978
9,02,021
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
NARENDRA MODI
Duration: July 2013
buzz
In the current debate on possible prime ministerial candidates, historian Ramchandra Guha's statement about Rahul Gandhi as a likeable but confused and mediocre politician was the key conversation driver this month.
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RAHUL GANDHI
1,05,342
43,478
52,545
1,18,325
58,642
1,05,991
93,134
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Duration: July 2013
buzz
BJP spokesperson, Meenakshi Lekhi's statement mocking Sonia Gandhi and expressing support for Batla House encounter martyr MC Sharma's family was widely shared by people online.
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SONIA GANDHI
41,095
28,706
25,730
45,920
70,881
64,205
60,009
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Duration: July 2013
buzz
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh continued to draw flak online for his silence and inaction on important issues such as the creation of Telangana, the debate on the Food Security Bill and the blasts at Bodh Gaya.
17 17
MANMOHAN SINGH
42630
30931
24967
58442
1,00,341
52,403
51,827
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Duration: July 2013
buzz
Arvind Kejriwal's statement about the Batla House encounter being a fake encounter and his being spoken of as among the first to expose the Maharashtra Irrigation Scam were the two key conversation drivers for the month.
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ARVIND KEJRIWAL
14446
22238
14680
35800
19,694
27,209
30,764
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Duration: July 2013
buzz
People’s negative reactions about the blasts at Bodh Gaya and the mid-day meal tragedy in Chhapra drove conversations for Nitish Kumar in the month of July.
His overall mentions came down by 55% this month.
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NITISH KUMAR
4,606
4,736
4,336
31,446
5,947
65,780
29,305
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Duration: July 2013
buzz
Mentions for Sushma Swaraj almost halved in July and she moved out of top 20 most mentions political leaders.
People’s opinion that she could be the prime ministerial candidate for BJP if Narendra Modi is not nominated drove conversations for her.
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SUSHMA SWARAJ
8988
3644
4492
11410
10,125
10,696
5,981
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Caste & religion
• Since May 2013, negative mentions for Narendra Modi around ‘Caste & religion’ have been coming down.
• Positive: People have supported the comments and views of online influencers like Suhel Seth, Anupam Kher, Harsha Bhogle and Chetan Bhagat who expressed their disappointment over 65 MPs writing to US President Obama to maintain the current policy of denying visa to Modi.
• Negative: Aamir Raza Hussain’s statement holding Narendra Modi responsible for the Gujarat riots was shared by people.
NARENDRA MODI
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Law, order & internal affairs
• Positive mentions increased and negative mentions decreased under ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ in July as compared to June.
• Positive: Narendra Modi’s opinion on Telangana and his statement that “India needs modernisation and not westernisation” was widely shared by people.
• Negative: His association with the Gujarat riots contributed to his negative mentions.
NARENDRA MODI
Duration: July 2013
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2133 shares 2375 shares
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Caste & religion
• Negative mentions for Rahul Gandhi under ‘Caste & religion’ increased from 3% in June to 59% in July.
• Positive: Rahul Gandhi’s statement “The Indian flag is my religion” in response to a question about his religious beliefs drove positive mentions for him.
• Negative: People terming Rahul Gandhi’s visit to a Dalit home in Jhanshi in 2011 as ‘drama’, instead of visiting the homes of the victims of the mid-day meal tragedy drove negative mentions.
RAHUL GANDHI
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Corruption
• Positive mentions for Rahul Gandhi under ‘Corruption’ have been declining since May 2013. Negative mentions have also increased from 65% in May to 89% in July.
• Negative: Rahul Gandhi’s alleged role in the Railgate Scam and the perception of being the biggest beneficiary of corrupt dynastic politics drove negative mentions.
RAHUL GANDHI
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Law, order & internal affairs
• Under ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ his negative mentions increased from 33% in May to 77% in July.
• Positive: People positively mentioned him for speaking with humility and empathy while talking about the Sikh riots.
• Negative: He was mentioned negatively after a girl was raped by a Youth Congress leader, and also when an NSUI member made a statement about the Sikh riots being necessary.
RAHUL GANDHI
Duration: July 2013
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2078 shares 691 shares
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Caste & religion
• Negative mentions under ‘Caste & religion’ increased from 20% in June to 87% in July.
• Negative: She was negatively mentioned in conversations about the alleged role of Congress leaders in the Gujarat riots, and for misusing the word secularism.
Corruption
• Positive: Some people believe that she was wrongly dragged by the BJP into the Bofors case due to her Italian origin.
• Negative: Like Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi’s alleged role in the Railgate Scam and people’s perception of her being a practitioner of corrupt dynastic politics drove negative mentions for her.
SONIA GANDHI
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Law, order & internal affairs
• Negative: People spoke negatively about Sonia Gandhi for not giving her go-ahead on the creation of Telangana, comparing the situation to 2000, when 3 new states were created by the government headed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
Development & economy
• Sonia Gandhi has been consistently under criticism on the subject of ‘Development & economy’.
• Negative: People criticized her for pushing the Food Security Bill and termed it ‘mindless welfarism’.
SONIA GANDHI
Duration: July 2013
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1744 shares 504 shares
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Defence & foreign policy
• Positive: He was praised by people after the Cabinet Committee on Security chaired by him, gave the nod for mountain strike corps along the China border.
• Negative: He was criticized for not paying tribute to the soldiers who sacrificed their life in Kargil.
Development & economy
• Positive: People spoke about him as being the only person who can take brave steps towards liberalisation to take the country forward.
• Negative: He was criticized for not taking a stand on the Food Security Bill.
Manmohan Singh
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Caste & religion
• Positive: Manmohan Singh's apology statement for 1984 Sikh riots, in comparison with Narendra Modi's 'puppy' comment.
• Negative: He was negatively mentioned for misusing the word secularism, along with Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi.
Manmohan Singh
Duration: July 2013
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325 shares 675 shares
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Corruption
• His continuous efforts against corruption led to an increase in positive mentions since January. Whether it was his stand on Lokpal bill, alleging Union minister Kapil Sibal for his involvement in Vodafone tax case, making statements against Delhi Chief minister Sheila Dixit for increased water and electricity bill in Delhi or exposing Maharashtra irrigation scam, all contributed to his positive mentions for him under corruption.
• Positive: People perceived that Arvind Kejriwal was the first to expose the Maharashtra Irrigation Scam.
• Negative: People commented that his wife who is an administrator has not been transferred for the last 20 years, which goes against Arvind Kejriwal’s promise of a corruption-free government.
ARVIND KEJRIWAL
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Law, order & internal affairs
• Negative mentions for him under ‘Law, order & internal affairs’ increased from 1% in June to 37% in July 2013. This was because of people criticizing his statement that the Batla house encounter was fake.
• Positive: Arvind Kejriwal’s rally in Azad Maidan on 11 July, 2013 seeking justice for 14,000 homeless families drew positive mentions.
• Negative: Negative mentions came from people who were unhappy about his terming the Batla House encounter fake.
ARVIND KEJRIWAL
Duration: July 2013
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299 shares 207 shares
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
37
Caste & religion
• Negative: People spoke negatively about him given his undue focus on his image as a secular leader and inability to focus on issues such as the Bodh Gaya blasts and the mid-day meal tragedy in Bihar.
Development & economy
• Since May 2013, positive mentions for Nitish Kumar under ‘Development & economy’ have been coming down.
• Negative: The mid-day meal tragedy in the Chhapra district in Bihar, and the terrible condition of roads in Patna drove negative mentions for him.
NITISH KUMAR
Duration: July 2013
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155 shares 102 shares
Duration: July 2013
THEMES BY SENTIMENT
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Caste & religion • Negative mentions for
Sushma Swaraj under ‘Caste & religion’ have increased from 55% in May to 91% in July.
• Negative: Her statement after the Bodh Gaya blasts about not allowing a Bamiyan demolition in India, drew negative comments from people who reacted, reminding her about the Babri Masjid demolition
Corruption
• Negative mentions for Sushma Swaraj under ‘Corruption’ have also been witnessing a rise since May 2013.
• Negative: A remark by Digvijay Singh that illegal mining flourished under Sushma Swaraj, drew negative mentions for her.
SUSHMA SWARAJ
Duration: July 2013
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168 shares 58 shares
METHODOLOGY
§ A list of 187 Indian political leaders were considered for this report.
§ These leaders are Cabinet Ministers, Ministers of states, Chief Ministers of states, important leaders from all political parties, and independent political leaders.
§ In total 1,479,605 mentions of various combinations of these keywords were found between 1 July to 31 July 2013.
§ The top 20 political leaders were identified basis their share of mentions in online conversations.
§ Out of the top 20 political leaders, seven leaders were identified basis their share of mentions in online conversations and basis their names being compared for the top job amongst stakeholders online. These include -
§ Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Arvind Kejriwal, Nitish Kumar and Sushma Swaraj
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METHODOLOGY
§ Thematic analysis was done for the following themes identified through key government ministries but which were sometimes clubbed based on synergies of the themes:
§ Corruption; Development & economy; Caste & religion; Women safety & security; Youth & employment; Defense & foreign policy; Law, order & internal affairs; Science & technology; Education & healthcare.
§ For each political leader, the top 100 most discussed and shared conversation threads were analysed. A sentiment was assigned to each conversation, and total sentiment was calculated by multiplying the number of times each of those conversations were reshared.
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Duration: July 2013
disclaimer
We have made all efforts to keep the report error free. Please do point out any errors that you may notice and we will incorporate your insights in future editions. Please write to us at [email protected] with the subject line ‘corrections’.
About Blogworks Driven by purpose and meaning, Blogworks helps global brands and organisations strategically leverage social media to draw insights, engage stakeholders in conversations, build communities, and co-create for business impact. Visit us at www.blogworks.in. Connect with us at [email protected]
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