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Page 1: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

THIS  IS  WHY  

Agent-­‐based  Modeling  is      

 Marke8ng  Mix  

RIGHT  NOW  

Page 2: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

 

 Marke8ng  Mix  Modeling  is  a  specialized  use  of  

data  and  advanced  analy8cs  to  analyze,  forecast  and  op8mize  

marke8ng  performance  

Page 3: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Some  Business  Ques8ons  Marke8ng  Mix  Answers  

What  mix  maximizes  sales?    What  about  marke8ng  ROI?  

How  much  should  we  invest  in  marke8ng?  

What  results  can  we  expect  from  each  marke8ng  plan?    

Which  tac8cs  worked  well?  Which  didn’t?  

Page 4: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

MARKETERS NEED HELP NOW •  Today’s  marketplace  is  more  complex  and  more  compe44ve  in  every  way  

•  Consumers  are  in  charge  

•  There  are  many  tac4cs  marketers  could  try  

•  The  rate  of  change  is  accelera4ng    •  The  C-­‐suite  is  demanding  accountability  

•  Data  is  everywhere,  but  people  need  more  than  just  data  to  make  good  decisions  

Page 5: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

85% of marketing line item

budgets are not optimal

(according  to  a  2013  study  by  ThinkV

ine)  

Page 6: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

MIX HAS BEEN DONE VIA REGRESSION •  Regression  finds  an  equa4on  that  describes  the  historical  rela4onship  between  marke4ng  spending  and  sales  

•  It  forecasts  by  extending  that  historical  rela4onship  forward  

So, regression works best when the future is just like the past

Page 7: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

SOME “ISSUES” WITH REGRESSION •  Because  regression  is  “top-­‐down”  it  does  not  provide  

the  granular,  ac4onable  informa4on  marketers  crave    

•  Few  regression  models  deliver  info  about  how  marke4ng  affects  consumer  groups  to  enables  targe4ng  and  tuning  

•  None  provide  info  for  tac4cs  you  haven’t  already  tried  •  Especially  when  things  are  changing  rapidly,  the  half-­‐life  of  

forecast  accuracy  can  be  short  

•  Responses,  updates  and  changes  oSen  take  a  long  4me    

•  Very  sophis4cated  types  of  regression  do  address  some  of  the  known  issues,  but  no  one  type  addresses  them  all  

Page 8: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

BUT

Agent-­‐based  Modeling  

is Different

Page 9: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

WHAT IS Agent-based Modeling?

A  proven  way  of  combining  data,  business  rules  and  analy4cs  to  

re-­‐create,  gain  insight  into,  and  predict  complex  phenomena  by  simula4ng  

the  behavior  and  interac4ons  of  “agents.”  

Page 10: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

IN MARKETING MIX…

•  The “complex phenomena” is how consumers respond to marketing, including buying (or not buying) products

•  Each “agent” represents a person or a household

Page 11: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

In  some  ways  agent-­‐based  modeling  and  regression  are  similar.  Each…  

Tunes  the  model  using  data  and  diagnos8c  tests    

Has  the  same  goal  

Starts  with  data  about                                          historical  marke8ng  ac8vity  and  sales  results,  and  can  use  data  about  pricing  and  distribu8on  

Can  incorporate  external  factors  like  the  weather  or  the  economy  

Provides  insight  about  past  marke8ng  ac8vity  

Page 12: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Each  company’s  agent-­‐based  model  is  different  

Each  uses  different  data,  includes  different  marke4ng  science,  does  different  calcula4ons,  etc.  

The  differences  maVer  both  in  terms  of  the  results  you  get  and  how  easy  it  is  to  get  them    

For the rest of this deck, we’ll look at the reasons why top marketers choose ThinkVine’s agent-based solution

Page 13: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

All  the  ac)on  takes  place  in  the  marketplace  ThinkVine  creates  a  simulated  marketplace  that  accurately  mirrors  your  real-­‐world  marketplace.                                                            

It  includes  consumers,  your  compe44on,  external  factors,  distribu4on  channels  and  more.    

Model the marketplace

Page 14: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Most  marketers  want  to  know  what  budget  they  need  and  how  to  use  it  to  meet  sales  goals    ThinkVine’s  solu4on  provides  you  with  that  informa4on  and  can  help  you  know  what  to  do    

to  achieve  other  objec4ves,  such  as  leads,  new  customers,  and  life4me  value.  

Achieve your objectives

Page 15: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Marke)ng  is  about  reaching  and  engaging  consumers    You  get  the  best  results  because  ThinkVine  models  consumer  behavior  using  data  about  who  consumers  are,  how  they  are  exposed  and  respond  to  marke4ng,  and  how  they  purchase.  

Focus on consumers

Page 16: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Marketers  know  that  consumers’  path-­‐to-­‐purchase  is  a  winding  road      You  see  the  big  picture  across  all  on-­‐  and  off-­‐line  marke4ng,  not  just  media,  and  understand    

the  effects  of  pricing,  distribu4on  channels,  trade  promo4ons,  compe44on  and  more.  

Include all marketing

Page 17: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

The  many  differences  among  consumers  ma=er  ThinkVine  makes  it  easy  for  you  to  effec4vely  target  and  efficiently  reach  consumers  by    providing  ac4onable  informa4on  about  them,  what  they  respond  to,  and  how  they  buy.  

Target and engage consumers

Page 18: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Historical  insight  is  a  good  thing,  but  you  can  only  change  the  future  ThinkVine  enables  you  to  understand  what  has  happened  and,  more  importantly,    what  is  likely  to  happen  by  simula4ng  the  effects  of  marke4ng  on  consumers.  

Look ahead

Page 19: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Measuring  ROI  is  the  key  to  accountability  You  can  confidently  answer  the  tough  ques4ons  with  objec4ve  info  about  ROI  

within  a  budget  year,  long-­‐term  ROI  and  marginal  ROI  by  tac4c,  group  and  channel.  

Quantify marketing ROI

Page 20: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Target  consumers,  create  campaigns  and  buy  media  by  consumer  group    ThinkVine’s  “boVom  up”  approach  from  consumer  behavior  gives  you  ac4onable,    

mul4-­‐dimensional  info  by  demographic,  marke4ng  type,  product,  geography,  4ming,  etc.  

Get granular info

Page 21: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Marke)ng  is  moving  relentlessly  towards  real-­‐)me.  Is  your  planning?  Succeed  in  a  fast-­‐moving  world  where  compe44on  and  pressure  for  results  have  shrunk    decision  cycles  by  using  ThinkVine’s  analysis,  targe4ng,  planning  and  forecas4ng  solu4on  

Be agile marketers

Page 22: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

You’ve  got  an  idea.  Or,  your  agency  does.  How  well  will  it  work?    ThinkVine’s  solu4on  enables  any  marketer  at  any4me  to  quickly  do  “What  if”  

analysis  of  ideas  and  see  mul4-­‐dimensional  informa4on  about  the  likely  results.    

Ask “What If?”

Page 23: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Cross-­‐channel  campaigns  reach  consumers  wherever  they  are,  whatever  they  are  doing  Discover  how  each  on-­‐  and  off-­‐line  marke4ng  tac4c  contributes  to  your  sales  results  with      an  integrated  approach  that  provides  accurate  aVribu4on  overall  and  by  consumer  group.    

Get accurate cross-channel attribution

Page 24: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Marke)ng  that  builds  the  brand  and/or  occurs  late  in  the  year  sets  the  stage  for  be=er  results  the  following  year.  Other  tac4cs  may  drive  current  year  sales  at  

the  expense  of  next  year’s.  ThinkVine  quan4fies  the  trade-­‐offs.    

Understand how this year’s marketing affects next year

Page 25: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Some)mes  you’re  in  a  hurry  and  just  want  the  data  to  give  you  the  answer  ThinkVine’s  exclusive  “SmartMix”  gives  you  fast  answers  about  the  budget  

needed  to  meet  a  goal,  or  the  mix  that  drives  the  most  sales  or  the  highest  ROI.    

Do “easy-button” optimization

Page 26: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

You’re  thinking  of  trying  something  new.  Is  it  likely  to  work  well?  To  scale?  You  can  make  smarter  decisions  faster  because  each  marketplace  includes  consumers  

who  respond  to  various  tac4cs,  not  just  the  tac4cs  you’ve  already  tried.    

Simulate new-to-you tactics and rollouts

Page 27: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

People’s  preferences  and  decisions  are  based  on  what  happened  before  and  today  You  will  understand  the  cumula4ve  effect  of  marke4ng  and  how  4ming    

affects  your  results  with  ThinkVine’s  consumer-­‐focused,  4me-­‐based  approach.  

Discover marketing’s effect over time

Page 28: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Don’t  let  valuable  consumer  and  market  research  sit  in  a  binder  on  a  shelf    ThinkVine  builds  your  research  about  consumer  behavior  and  preferences  into    your  marketplace,  including  it  in  every  simula4on  and  informing  every  forecast.  

Leverage consumer & market research

Page 29: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

As  great  as  your  marke)ng  is,  people  will  forget  about  it  over  )me  ThinkVine  paints  a  more  realis4c  picture  than  regression  can  by  using  data  to  quan4fy  how    people’s  brand  preferences  are  affected  when  you  “go  dark”  and  by  compe4tor’s  marke4ng.  

Understand how preferences change

Page 30: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Some  tac)cs,  like  adver)sing,  strengthen  brands  and  build  awareness,  but  don’t  always  lead  directly  to  sales.  You  can  make  smart  trade-­‐offs  because  ThinkVine  uses  your  data  to  quan4fy  the  long-­‐term  value  of  each  tac4c.  

Quantify the long-term value of media

Page 31: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

Marke)ng  op)miza)on  is  an  itera)ve,  collabora)ve  process    ThinkVine’s  soSware  makes  it  easy  for  your  staff  (and  agencies)  to  work  together,    includes  role-­‐based  security  and  facilitates  fast  prepara4on  of  presenta4ons.  

Work collaboratively

Page 32: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

De-­‐hassle  marke)ng  planning  and  preserve  organiza)onal  knowledge  ThinkVine  ensures  key  parameters  are  consistent  across  forecasts;  automa4cally  documents  

assump4ons;  and  saves  plans,  ideas,  forecasts,  results,  and  even  guidance  in  one  place.  

Get and keep everyone on the same page

Page 33: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

DO YOU WANT TO IMPROVE RESULTS? •  ThinkVine’s  marke4ng  mix  op4miza4on  solu4on  combines  agent-­‐based  modeling  and  expert  guidance  so  you  can  achieve  your  goals  

•  Now,  leading  B2C  marketers  in  many  industries  are  improving  their  results  by  using  ThinkVine’s  solu4on  to  analyze,  forecast  and  op4mize  their  marke4ng  

•  To  learn  how  ThinkVine  can  help  you  now…  

Call  (513)  842-­‐5900  

or  visit  www.ThinkVine.com  

Page 34: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

•  Agent-­‐based  Modeling:  A  Breakthrough  Approach  to  Marke4ng  Mix  Op4miza4on  hVp://thinkvine.com/s/1410  

•  An  Overview  of  ThinkVine’s  Agent-­‐based  Modeling  hVp://thinkvine.com/s/1419  

•  Using  Consumer  Behavior  Research  to  Power  Marke4ng  Mix  Op4miza4on  Webinar  hVp://thinkvine.com/s/1417  

•  Trendy  Fashion  Retailer  Uses  ThinkVine  to  Find  the  Best  Mix  and  Timing  of  Offline  and  Online  Tac4cs  to  Drive  Sales  hVp://thinkvine.com/s/1415  

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Page 35: Top 20 Reasons Why Agent-based Modeling is Disrupting Marketing Mix

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