Training Workshop - Severe Weather Forecasting and Warning Services Macao, China, 15-19 April 2013
Sardar SarfarazRegional Met Centre, PMD, Karachi
Brief Introduction of Pakistan Meteorological Department
Pakistan Meteorological Department
Secretary: Ministry of Defence
Director General
Chief Meteorologist Chief Meteorologist Chief Meteorologist Chief MeteorologistForecasting Flood Drought - Agromet Seismic Research
Chief Meteorologist
Chief Admin Officer
2 - DIRECTORS 3 - DIRECTORS 2 - DIRECTORS 3 - DIRECTORS6 - DIRECTORS
20 - Dy. Directors 3 - Dy. Directors 3 - Dy. Directors 3 - Dy. Directors 3 - Dy. Directors
Aviation Meteorology
SERVICES
Hydrology/flood forecast
AgrometeorologyDrought
Seismology and Tsunami early warning
Services and Facilities, PMD provides
Marine & cyclone warning
Public weather service
PMD’s Infrastructure for Monitoring the Weather
HRPT
1 -Islamabad2 -Quetta
FY-2 E/D1- Islamabad2. Karachi
PMD has 4 Satellite ground stations:2 HRPT systems installed at Islamabad and Quetta.
2 Chinese ground satellite stations, working at Islamabad and Karachi.
Satellite Ground Stations
Radar’s Network
10-cm Doppler Radars
1- Lahore2- Mangla
QPM Radar
1- Sialkot
5-cm Wx. Surveillance Radars1- Islamabad2- D.I.Khan3- Rahim Yar Khan4- Karachi
PMD has 7 Radars, in operation at different parts of Pakistan, which cover almost 80% area of Pakistan.6 new Radars provision is under progress which are expected to complete within a year or so.
Rain
Temps
Winds
PMD- HRM Forecast Products
Numerical WeatherProducts
Based on DATA, TECHNIQUE and SKILL, the Numerical Weather products like Precipitation, Temperatures and Winds are generated twice a day with a validity of next 1 – 7 Days. All such products are available on PMD website, www.pmd.gov.pk
PMD – GMDSS SafetyNet Message• Under the Global Maritime
Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) PMD prepares and issues the marine safety message for MetArea-IX.
• Message passed daily at 0700UTC via telnet to LES Perth, Australia for onward transmission to ships via INMARSAT.
Met Area-IX map
Karachi coastal radio (ASK, NAVETAX), covering the Arabian Sea north of 20oN, Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, broadcasts it at 518KHz at 0630 and 1830 UTC.
Of Indian Ocean fleet forecast areas the PMD is responsible for the areas B00, B30, B25 and B20.
PMD – fleet forecast
MORNING FLEET FORECAST GENERAL INFERENCE, DATED ----, ---- Weather: Fair with hazy morning B00, B30, B25 and B20. AREA FORECAST VALID FOR 12 HOURS COMMENCING -- / 0700 U.T.C
Area Weather Surface Wind State of Sea Swell Period Visibility
B00 Fair with misty morning
NW’ly08-10 Kts Slight 0.5-0.8m 2-3 Sec
* Good may be poor in mist.
B30 Fair with misty morning.
NW’ly05-07 Kts Smooth 0.1.-5m Do
* Good may be poor in mist.
B25 Fair with hazy morning
E/SE’ly03-05 Kts
north 24N & SW 5-7Kts B/W 21-24N.
Smooth 0.1-0.5m Do
* Good may be moderate in haze.
B20 Fair with hazy morning
SE’ly05-10 Kts
Smooth/slight0.1-0.5m 2 Sec
* Good may be moderate in haze.
PMD – GMDSS SafetyNet message for MetArea-IXTOINMARSAT COASTAL EARTH STATION (CES) +PERTH AUSTRALIA.SECURITE MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR METAREA-IX VALID FOR24 HOURS COMMENCING 0700UTC DATED 27-10-2010 BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT. PART -I: Morning satellite imagery shows intense convective clouds over the East Arabian Sea. PART - II: NO ALERT MESSAGE PART –III: FORECASTS:
SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEA I. WIND NE/SW 07 -10 KTS LOCALLY 15 KTS EAST OF 65E AND N/NW 05-07 KTS WEST OF 65E.II. WEATHER FAIR WITH MISTY MORNING.III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE POOR IN MIST. IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT.
SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMANI. WIND E/SE 05-07 KTS NORTH OF 24N, SW 08-12 KTS SOUTH OF 24N.II. WEATHER FAIR WITH HAZY MORNING.III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE MODERATE IN HAZE.IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH. SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE, 12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E, 20ºN/67ºE)I. WIND N 10-15 KTS GUST 20KTS EAST OF 60E BEC.II WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING EAST OF 65E.III. VISIBILITY MODERATE MAY BE POOR IN HAZE.IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT. SUB AREA NO. 4 GULF OF ADEN I. WIND E/NE 07-10 KTS GUST 15 KTS WEST OF 50E. II WEATHER FAIR WITH HAZY MORNING.III. VISIBILITY GOOD MAY BE MODERATE IN HAZE.IV. STATE OF SEA SMOOTH/SLIGHT.
Forecast and Warning Services
Forecast and warning services’ delivery for emergency preparedness and response:
• Current warnings system, • Challenges, • Pressures and • Concerns
PMD – Severe Weather Warning System
PMD’s Current Warning System:
Snow-melt Flooding
Heavy Rains/River Flooding
Torrential Rain/Flash Flooding
Cyclones/Coastal Flooding
Urban Flooding
Water Crises/Droughts
Extreme Heat in May/June
Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)
Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)
Extreme Rainfall (Monsoon)
Tropical Cyclones (Pre & Post Monsoon)
Dry Spell (Deficient Monsoon/Winter rain)
Potential Extreme Weather Events Pakistan is vulnerable to
National Weather Forecasting Office, Islamabad and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Karachi
NDMA/PDMAs/DDMAs
District/local Govts CBOs
Media/print & electronic NGOs
High Govt officials KPT
PN
Information Flow
N(P/D)DMA- National/Provincial/District Disaster Management Authority,KPT – Karachi Port Trust, PN – Pakistan Navy, CBOs- Community Based Organizations
Meteorological Advisories Meteorological watch (7 – 10 days earlier)Issued to give a synopsis of the actual (real time) existing weather
situation around Pakistan Meteorological alert (5 – 7 days earlier) Issued to make the authorities and public informed of the
developing weather viz likely to affect any area of Pakistan Meteorological advisory (3 – 5 days earlier)Issued when developing weather is quiet certain to approach
Pakistan areas and the Govt authorities are alerted.
Meteorological warning Issued when there is a certainty of violent weather occurrence
over Pakistan areas.
Distribution of Rainfall
• Fairly Widespread- Covering almost 100% Area
• Widespread- Covering nearly 75% Area
• Scattered- Covering nearly 50% Area
• Isolated- Covering less than 50% Area
• Few- Covering less than 25% Area
Probability of rainfall occurrence and intensity
Probability Of Occurrence Terminology<25% Could Occur
26-50% May Occur
51-75% Would Occur
76-100% Will Occur
Rainfall Intensity terms Quantity (mm)
Very heavy 89 or more
Heavy 44.5 - 88.9
Rather heavy 22.4 – 44.4
Moderate 9.7 – 22.3
Light rain 4.6 - 9.6
Very light rain 2.5 – 4.5
Little rain 0.3 – 2.4
Date: August 03, 2011Time: 1600 PST
Press Release
Monsoon Rains Predicted in Upper Parts of the Country
• Met Office predicted another spell of monsoon rains in upper parts of the country from Thursday that may produce scattered Rains/Thundershowers during next 3-4 days. Later on this weather system is likely to spread to other parts of the country.
• According to Met Office, scattered Rain/Thundershower
is expected in Kashmir, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Faisalabad, Peshawar, Malakand, Hazara, and Kohat divisions during next 2-3 days. While weather is likely to remain hot and humid in rest of the country during the period.
• After wards more monsoon currents are likely to penetrate in parts of the country from Saturday that would produce scattered Rain/Thundershowers, with isolated heavy falls in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir from Saturday to Tuesday.
Spokesman
Weather Advisories - August, 2011
Weather Advisory (recent one)
PMD – Cyclone Warning System
10 AWSs installed along Sindh-Makran coast
Other than AWS four coastal surface observing stations, Karachi, Ormara, Pasni and Gwadar also work round-the-clock
PMD – Cyclone Warning System
PMD’s Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Karachi is responsible for the preparation and issuance of tropical cyclone warnings in Pakistan.
Tracking of the tropical cyclones
Done with the help of
1. Conventional surface and upper-air observations from inland stations and ship observations.
2. Model outputs and guidance from the global tropical cyclones warning centres.3. The High-resolution Regional Model (HRM) implemented at PMD.4. 5cm Weather surveillance radar installed at Karachi.5. Meteorological satellites’ output and data.6. AWSs installed along Sindh and Makran coast.7. SODAR – the vertical wind profiler- with RASS installed at Karachi.8. RadioSonde ground station installed at Karachi.
PMD – Cyclone Warning System
Cyclone warning centre does• spot on any cyclonic disturbance in the Arabian Sea by close and careful analysis
of synoptic weather maps and satellite imagery • assess its potential of conversion into a cyclone • issue the pre-warning advisory 7 days earlier to cyclone formation (say, when a
low/depression forms at around Lat 10N near west Indian coast)• issue “Tropical Cyclone Warning” containing cyclone current location (Lat/Long),
past 3/6hr movement, CEP, maximum sustained winds, intensity and likely track with 3-4 days lead time
warning of cyclone also contains the risk of “disaster / damages due to windstorm, torrential rains & storm surge which might result in inundation/ coastal flooding, uprooting of trees, demolition of electric installations, failure of infrastructure, tearing away of Kutcha houses and collapse of buildings especially loosely structured”
• observe closely and monitor every hour /3hr it’s central estimated Pressure (CEP), winds, lower & upper-air anticyclone/ steering factor and
• track it with careful watch and issue update/ warning every 3/6-hrs accordingly.
PMD – Cyclone Warning System (cyclone detection at surface wx map)
Surface weather maps depicting the Low, depression and Cyclone. For tracking of cyclone this synoptic situation is corroborated with upper-air analysis, satellite imageries and information from RSMC, Delhi cyclone bulletin.
Cyclone Terminologies usedEffects during Landfall Corresponding
Wind SpeedPressure (hpa) Disturbance type
Gusty winds and damages detaching fruit from the trees
22 – 27 Kts >=996 Depression
Negligible damages to houses, trees, some crops and caravan.
28 – 33 Kts 986-995 Deep Depression
Minor house damage, significant damage to signboards, trees and small crafts.
34 – 47 Kts 971-985 Cyclonic Storm
Some roof and structural damage, destruction of some caravans and power failure
48 – 63 Kts 956-970 Severe Cyclonic Storm
Significant structural damage, caravans blown away & dangerous air born debris
64 – 119 Kts 930-955 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
Widespread destructions, uprooting trees
>= 120 Kts <=929 Super Cyclonic Storm
PMD – Cyclone Warning System: A specific case of “PHET”
Cyclone warning system - PHET (contd.)
Cyclone Warning System-PHET (contd.)
Weather Services for MOUNTAINEERING
Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System
Challenges, Pressures and Concerns: Challenges:1. First and foremost is the forecast accuracy and area-specificity and
precision of warning.2. Translation of message (warning) severity into grass-root public
level.3. Making people 100% realize of the actual gravity of looming
danger. 4. Local people language, social customs and traditions sometimes
pose a challenge too.5. Met terminologies particularly getting across the message down to
the village-level people.6. Lack of proper resources in meeting the challenge. ………..
Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System (contd.)
Pressures:1. Pressure from within…………..is your forecast/
warning (specially the evacuation warning) going to be right/wrong leading to shatter the public confidence?
2. Pressure from media to get “unscheduled” updates/latest just to make it a breaking news and lead the competitors.
………..
Severe Weather Forecast & Warning System (contd.)
Concerns:1. Lack of resources (human - adequately trained
or not, infrastructure and work environment etc.).
2. Capacity building in NMHSs.3. Concerns = challenges + pressures……….
Flood Forecasting Division
National Weather Forecasting Centre
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Tsunami Warning Centre
+92 42-99200208 ,99200139
+92 51-9250363-4 ,051-9250595
+92 21-99261434 ,99261404 ,99261417
+92 21-99261429
Accessibility of Weather Advisories
PMD wx warning centres- contacts’ details
Cyclone Annimation
Thank You