Transforming Transportation:
Now and for the Future
Jack KitowskiMay 10, 2001
Air Resources Board
California Environmental Protection Agency
Air, Energy & Transportation Challenges
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:Overview
Goal: Clean and healthful air
Progress: – Light-duty Vehicles
Zero Emission Vehicles Advanced Transportation
– Heavy-duty Vehicles Transit Buses
Vision: “conventional technologies and fuels are not enough”
Air Resources Board’s Goal
Ensure all individuals in California, especially children and the elderly, can live, work and play in a healthful environment -- free from harmful exposure to air pollution.
Air Quality TrendsHighest Ozone: Greater Los Angeles
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pp
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Standard
+87%
Daily VMT Increasing Faster Than Population
Daily VMT Increasing Faster Than Population
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Population
VMT
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Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Light-duty vehicles
Reducing Motor Vehicle Emissions in California
1990 Low Emission Vehicle (LEVI) Program – Emissions reduced 50% - 75% – Vehicle + fuel = system– ZEV Mandate: 10% of sales
Resulting technologies:– Better fuel control– Catalysts: Quick warm-up– On-board diagnostics
– EVs, hybrids, natural gas, fuel cells
LEVII: “Near Zero” Emissions
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HC
NOx(g/mile)
LEV I LEV II
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ase
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Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Gasoline engines:Near-zero vehicle emissions possible
– 2000 & 2001 Nissan Sentra CA– Honda ZLEV
Emissions remain from fuel distribution– Terminals– Cargo tankers– Service stations
Fuel Distribution EmissionsFuel Distribution Emissionsvs. vs. Cleanest Gasoline Car*Cleanest Gasoline Car*
Fuel
DistributionTailpipe*
* PZEV
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Nissan Sentra CA
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Battery electric vehicles: >2000 on-road in California No vehicle emissions - ever! Minimal fuel distribution emissions (in CA) Better efficiency (lower CO2)
Low operating cost Limited range ~70 miles High battery cost
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Toyota RAV4
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Ford Ranger
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Daimler-Chrsler EPIC
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
HondaEV Plus
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Nissan Altra
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Ford Th!nk -
City
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Toyota Ecom
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Fuel cell electric vehicles: DaimlerChrysler NECAR, Ford P2000 . . . . California Fuel Cell Partnership Zero or near zero emissions No range limits Better efficiency (low CO2) Cost reduction needed
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
DaimlerChrysler Fuel Cell
Electric Vehicle
Revisiting the ZEV Mandate:2001
Mandate stays– Reduce uncertainty– No more reviews
Modify to address– Near term availability– Cost– Market sustainability
Key Elements of the Revised Mandate
More gradual phase-in – Lower numbers early years
Incentives needed for new technologies– Hybrids & natural gas vehicles count toward up to half of ZEV
requirement.
– Bigger credits for early introduction (4x)
– Bigger credits for hydrogen fuel cells (10x)
– Efficiency credits
Extend and increase mandate beyond 2010
ZEVs: Revised Mandate
10 % Mandate
2 %
ZEV
6 % PZEV
2 % Hybrids, natural gas
2 %
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Natural gas engines– Near-zero tailpipe emissions– No evaporation emissions– Minimal fuel distribution
emissions– Adequate range: ~ 200 miles– ~ $3,000 premium– Home refueling possible
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
2001 Honda
Civic GX
(natural gas)
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Hybrid electric vehicles:– No range limitations
With ‘no all electric range’– 2000 Honda Insight, Toyota Prius
– Big 3: Diesel hybrids, “light” hybrids
– No urban emission advantages
– Better efficiency (lower CO2)
With ‘electric range’– Emission advantages of battery EV
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Honda Insight
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Cars and Light TrucksCars and Light Trucks
Toyota Prius
Transforming Transportation: Transforming Transportation: (ZEV Sales Requirement in CA)
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Assumes equal mix of full function and city EVs
Transforming Transportation: Transforming Transportation: (Preliminary Sales Requirements)
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ehic
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ZEVs
Hybrids & CNG
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Heavy-duty vehicles
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation: Urban Transit Buses
New bus emission standards– 90% lower emissions
– Ultra-low sulfur (15 ppm) fuel
– Two paths: Diesel or Alternative fuel
Older buses– Retrofit with soot filters
– Ultra-low sulfur fuel
Zero emission buses– Likely fuel cells, Demos: 2003
– 15% purchase requirement: beginning 2008
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Heavy-Duty Trucks & BusesHeavy-Duty Trucks & Buses
CNG Transit Bus
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Heavy-Duty Trucks & BusesHeavy-Duty Trucks & Buses
Fuel cell engines: Transit buses
– Hydrogen fueled– Zero emissions– Fuel efficiency better than diesel– Commercial as soon as 2002– Challenge: Cost reduction
Other applications– Line haul trucks, locomotives
Transforming Transportation:Transforming Transportation:
Heavy-Duty Trucks & BusesHeavy-Duty Trucks & Buses
Ballard Fuel Cell Engine
Vision for the Future
Light-duty vehicle fleet being transformed:– natural gas vehicles, hybrids, battery electric
vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles
Your vehicle choices will increase dramatically over the next 5-10 years !
Heavy-duty trucks/buses being transformed: – natural gas and fuel cell vehicles
Transforming Transportation:
Now and for the Future
Jack Kitowski
Air, Energy & Transportation Challenges