Transmission of dispatchable solar energy from North Africa to Central Europe Dipl.-Ing. Denis Hess (DLR)
Rabat, 28.10.2013
Source: Hess, D. (2013):
Fernübertragung regelbarer Solarenergie
von Nordafrika nach Mitteleuropa
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
import of dispatchable
renewable energy
HVDC
point-to-point
HVDC
point-to-point
import of dispatchable
renewable energy
decentralized renewable energies (RE) and storages
large power plants of dispatchable renewable
energies
feeding point into the AC grid
balancing authority
area
distribution network
AC
transmission network
AC
10.8 mio. inhabitants, 80 TWh/y - in the year 2012 Source: (http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baden-W%C3%BCrttemberg)
Examination area
~ 100 % RE
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Examination area – Baden-Württemberg (BW)
Paradigm change in the load range
base load
mid-load
peak load
base load
mid-load
peak load
residual load with
dispatchable RE
feeding of
fluctuating RE
residual load with
dispatchable RE
feeding of
fluctuating RE
in the year 2012 in BW until the year 2050
Pow
er
[MW
]
100% RE
su
mm
er
win
ter
Pow
er
[MW
]
Pow
er
[MW
]
Pow
er
[MW
]
week in summer week in summer
week in winter week in winter
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Renewable energies for Baden-Württemberg
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
scenario1
scenario2
scenario1
scenario2
scenario1
scenario2
18% 40% 55% 55% 70% 70% 95% 95%
2012 2022 2025 2030 2050
ins
tall
ed
ca
pa
cit
y [
MW
]
Photovoltaics
Wind Onshore
Wind Offshore
River Runoff
Pump Storage, CAES
Hydrogen Storage
Gas Turbines
Combined Cycle
Coal Plants
Nuclear Plants
Lignite Plants
Import Hydro
Wood, Biogas
Biomass, Waste
Geothermal
Import CSP
peak Load
share of RE
year
The decision for scenario 2 is already TODAY necessary! Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Time series of power production by type of power plant
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
System problems in Baden-Württemberg in the year 2050 with 95% renewable energy (RE) in electricity supply
installed capacity: 55 GW
Today, the decision must be made specifically for the choice of one way!
installed capacity: 35 GW
2050
95% RE
Quo vadis?
production surpluses dependence
of gas
Two scenarios for the year 2050, each with 95% renewable energies for the electricity supply in Baden-Württemberg
with dispatchable energy on
demand -> ideal power mix
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Transmission of dispatchable solar energy: CSP-HVDC site
co-
firing
CSP - collectors
average utilization 6200 h/y
land area ~ 150 km²
turbine
heat storage
2200 MWel,gross (17 x 130 MW)
1700 MWel,net (17 x 100 MW)
generator converter
converter
2600km HVDC
1700 MWel,gross
1500 MWel,net
9,3 TWh/y
feeding point into the
AC grid
DNI
heat / steam
mechanics
Alternating Current - AC
Direct Current - DC
transmission
DNI: Direct Normal Irradiance CSP: Concentrating Solar Power HVDC: High Voltage Direct Current
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
no exclusion
1
2
exclusion
Exclusion areas DNI potential
CSP model sites in Morocco
settlements
protected areas
water
agriculture and forest
slope (>2%)
dunes
The economic CSP potenital in the northern part of Morocco is at about 8450 TWh/y with 18500 km² CSP gross land demand -> one site with 150 km² needs only 0.8% of this potential
[kWh/m²y]
Model sites only, no planification!
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
First design of the CSP-HVDC site, cost and land requirements
-> 9.32 TWh/a
16-23 billion € (real 2010)
feasible until 2024
MOR-E-F-D
HVDC 2600 km
1.7 GW / 1.5 GWnet
1,9 – 5,1 billion €
150 km²
CSP 2.2 GW
CSP 12 -18 billion €
150 km²
MOR-E-F-D
HVDC 2300 km
1.7 GW / 1.5 GWnet
3,7 – 4,9 billion €
75km²
CSP 2.2 GW
CSP 12 -18 billion €
150 km²
O&M:
4-5 €Cent/kWh
LCOE:
12-15 €Cent/kWh
Marrakesh (Mar)
Missour (Mis)
Daxlanden (Dax)
Eichstetten (Eic)
EEZ sea borders
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Adequate permanent payment for the required land
protective strip
covered
area mast base (grey)
Restriction of agriculture through the mast base (blue)
70 m + pole - pole
safety conductor
+ pole - pole
safety conductor
Overhead line
4 m
Underground cable
€𝑪𝒆𝒏𝒕
𝑻𝑾𝒉 ∙ 𝒎² ∙ 𝒚
unit
cheaper overhead line and more expensive underground cable can reach through this compensation payment cost neutrality within their lifetime!
free choice of technology is made possible -> increased acceptance
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90M
is-E
ic o
ve
rhea
d
Mis
-Eic
ca
ble
Ma
r-D
ax o
ve
rhe
ad
Ma
r-D
ax c
ab
le
Mis
-Eic
ove
rhea
d
Mis
-Eic
ca
ble
Ma
r-D
ax o
ve
rhe
ad
Ma
r-D
ax c
ab
le
Mis
-Eic
ove
rhea
d
Mis
-Eic
ca
ble
Ma
r-D
ax o
ve
rhe
ad
Ma
r-D
ax c
ab
le
Mis
-Eic
overh
ead
Mis
-Eic
ca
ble
Ma
r-D
ax o
ve
rhe
ad
Ma
r-D
ax c
ab
leMorocco Spain France Germany
mio
. €
/y
annual income for the nationsand their municipalites from theconcession fee
annual income for the nationsand their municipalites from taxof the motivation payment
annual income for thelandowners from the motivationpayment
annual income for thelandowners from the decreasingvalue
Annual income for the concerned nations, their municipalities and landowners (riparians) – each time with 4 routes
Today only the blue value is paid for the construction of transmission lines in Germany ONCE!
0.67 – 1.56 €𝐶𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝑘𝑊ℎ
costs for the consumers
incl. CSP plant
~40 €𝐶𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝑚²𝑦
Cp.: agricultural profit in BW*: ~ 8 €𝐶𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝑚²𝑦
Source:*Landwirtschaftliche Betriebsverhältnisse und Buchführungsergebnisse 2012 Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
The trafic light model of the decision ways
2014
2015
2019
2016
2024
2013
year
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Time limit for a decision
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
How can the investment be paid that low interests incur and thus the capital costs remain low?
Investment:
16-23 billion € capital costs
we need:
garantees
e.g.: AAA,
Power Purchase
Agreement (PPA)
we need:
a short capital
repayment period
In a european electricity market all
consumers profit from constant
cheap electricity
-> apportionment of the tariff on a
high number of consumers
The tariff will be high but only for
a short time
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Tariff of the CSP-HVDC site Mis-Eic with underground cable - How can 16 billion € be paid that low interests incur and thus the capital costs remain low?
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
How can 16 billion € be paid that low interests incur and thus the capital costs remain low?
-10 €
-8 €
-6 €
-4 €
-2 €
0 €
2 €
4 €
1 2 5 10 15 20 30 40
bill
ion
Capital repayment period [y]
Savings (black) and additional costs (red) accumulated in 40 years versus dispatchable fossil fuels (coal / gas)
interests = 9,9% discount rate = 1,3%
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Conclusions
• For an electricity system with ~100% RE dispatchable renewable energy is
necessary
• Only CSP with a new HVDC point-to-point infrastructure can enable an
export of dispatchable renewable energy form North Africa to Europe
• A CSP plant with 150 km² needs only 0.8% of the potential in the northern
part of Morocco
• The investment costs are at about 16-23 billion € for CSP and HVDC
• If we decide in 2013/2014 the project could be feasible until 2025
• Due to the compensation costs for the required land area, overhead
transmission lines and underground cables can reach cost neutrality
• To avoid high capital costs garantees (AAA, PPA) and a short capital
repayment period are needed
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Transmission of dispatchable solar energy from North Africa to Central Europe Communication platform for online public participation: First ideas
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Potential information network for a multinational civil project
NGO framework
framework of cooperative societies
fram
ewo
rk
assi
stan
ce
science industry politics
information and order
information and order
participation in procedures
financial participation
civi
ls
information and agreement
information and agreement
NGO: non-governmental organisation
Declaration of intent on state level
green: in favour red: refusal white: not yet decided
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Declaration of intent on regional level
green: in favour red: refusal white: not yet decided
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
-> declaration for possible corridors
Declaration of intent on municipal level
green: in favour red: refusal white: not yet decided
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
-> declaration for possible corridors
Declaration of intent on owner level
green: in favour red: refusal white: not yet decided
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
-> declaration for possible corridors
On the interactive website can also appear:
• Image video about this potential project (animation of the
power plant function, need in the energy system of a Central
European control area, data and interviews with affected
people of the power station, the transmission line and
electricity customers)
• All current activities with citizens, in politics, science and
economy
• Schedule of citizen participation and overall schedule
• All data in the field of economy, ecology, technology, social
and institutional
• Already achieved progress and critique
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Further steps
• preparation of a handbook for public participation
• publication of further scientific studies on the necessity of
dispatchable solar electricity imports to Baden-Wuerttemberg on a
multilingual website
• questioning of citizens in case studies in exemplary communities
• detailed cost-benefit analysis with risk assessment
• cooperation with ENTSO, TransnetBW, RTE, REE, ONEE in
preparation for the inclusion in the "Union List" of a project with
common interests (EU Regulation 347/2013)
• support of the necessary application documents and the required
measures
• search for suitable project responsible
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
„Ways connect people“
Source: http://www.ribapylondesign.com/
Thank you for your attention!
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Former projects related to the topics
• MENA Regional Water Outlook – CSP for Seawater Desalination in the
Middle East and North Africa, World Bank (2012), www.dlr.de/tt/menawater
• REACCESS - Risk of Energy Availability: Common Corridors for European
Supply Security, European Commission (2011), http://reaccess.epu.ntua.gr/
• AQUA-CSP - Concentrating Solar Power for Seawater Desalination,
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety (2007), www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp
• TRANS-CSP - Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for Concentrating Solar
Power, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and
Nuclear Safety (2006), www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp
• MED-CSP - Concentrating Solar Power for the Mediterranean Region,
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety (2005), www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Selected publications
• MED-CSP www.dlr.de/tt/med-csp
• TRANS-CSP www.dlr.de/tt/trans-csp and http://elib.dlr.de/83385/
• AQUA-CSP www.dlr.de/tt/aqua-csp
• MED-CSD www.med-csd-ec.eu/eng/
• MENA Regional Water Outlook www.dlr.de/tt/menawater
• Financing concentrating solar power in the Middle East and North
Africa – Subsidy or investments? Energy Policy 39 (2011) 307-317
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.09.045
• Solar electricity imports from Middle East and North Africa to Europe
Energy Policy 42 (2012) 341-353
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.091
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt
Contact
Dr. Franz Trieb [email protected] +49 711 6862 - 423
Jürgen Kern [email protected] +49 711 6862 - 8119
Tobias Fichter [email protected] +49 711 6862 - 334
Massimo Moser [email protected] +49 711 6862 - 779
Denis Hess [email protected] +49 711 6862 - 370
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)
Institut für Technische Thermodynamik
System Analysis und Technology Assessment
Wankelstr. 5 | 70563 Stuttgart | Germany
www.DLR.de/tt/
Systems Analysis &
Technology Assessment
http://www.dlr.de/tt