www.harriswilliams.de
Harris Williams & Co. Ltd is a private limited company incorporated under English law having its registered office at 5th Floor, 6 St. Andrew Street, London EC4A 3AE, UK, registered with the Registrar of Companies for England and Wales under company number 7078852. Directors: Mr. Ned Valentine, Mr. Paul Poggi, Mr. Thierry Monjauze and Mr. Aadil Khan, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Harris Williams & Co. Ltd Niederlassung Frankfurt (German branch) is registered in the Commercial Register (Handelsregister) of the Local Court (Amtsgericht) of Frankfurt am Main,Germany, under registration number HRB 96687, having its business address at Bockenheimer Landstrasse 33-35, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Permanent Representative(Ständiger Vertreter) of the Branch Niederlassung: Mr. Jeffery H. Perkins.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
PAGE |
www.harriswilliams.de
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
SHAPE-SHIFTING: TRENDS THAT WILL DRIVE AFTERMARKET GROWTH
New vehicle sales are on the rebound, old cars are getting older and CUVS aregrowing in popularity — all trends that likely will impact the automotive aftermarketand auto repairers in the coming years, according to IHS Automotive. “It gives usthe opportunity to do what we do best in the aftermarket, and that's adapt andinnovate and be able to come up with new ways to serve these new-generationvehicles. We've done it before, all we have to do is do it again,” said Mark Seng,global aftermarket practice leader for IHS.
Tire Business
WHAT WE’RE READING
NEW VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS TOP 17 MILLION FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2006
Experian Automotive announced that new vehicle registration volumes for light-duty vehicles has reached the highest point in the past nine years. During therolling year from Nov. 1, 2014, through Oct. 31, 2015, there were more than 17million new vehicles registered within the United States — a metric that hasn’tbeen achieved since 2006. Further insight from the data showed that, while thereis now a near-identical volume of vehicles registered, consumer buying habitshave changed over the past nine years. For example, crossover utility vehiclesaccount for nearly 24 percent of the market in 2015, up more than 100 percentfrom 2006.
Aftermarket News
ICAHN WINS PEP BOYS BIDDING WAR
Billionaire Carl Icahn won the bidding war for Pep Boys, striking a deal to buy theauto parts and repair chain for about $1 billion. The deal with Icahn Enterprises L.P.,the activist investor’s publicly traded company, comes a day after the other partyin the fight, Japanese tire maker Bridgestone Corp., said it wouldn’t counter Mr.Icahn’s latest bid. On Wednesday, Pep Boys - Manny Moe & Jack said it hadpulled the plug on its pending merger deal with Bridgestone and that Mr. Icahn’sfirm paid Bridgestone a $39.5 million deal-termination fee on Pep Boys’ behalf. Thedeal, for $18.50 a share, is expected to close in the first quarter of 2016.
Wall Street Journal
1
CONTENTS
M&A TRANSACTIONS
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
OUR GROUP
CONTACTS
UNITED STATES
Frank MountcastleManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0124
Jason BassManaging [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0132
Joe ConnerManaging Director [email protected]+1 (804) 915-0151
Jershon JonesDirector [email protected]+1 (804) 932-1356
Jeff BurkettDirector [email protected] +1 (804) 932-1334
Jeff KiddVice President [email protected] +1 (804) 915-0178
EUROPE
Jeffery PerkinsManaging Director [email protected]+49 (0) 69 3650638 00
Autonomous driving repeated its front and center position at CES, but trends suchas personalization of the driver experience via cloud connectivity and a furtherexpansion into smart mobility by some of the biggest players in the automotivetech space also stood out. This year Mercedes Benz debuted the 2017 E-Class, thefirst “standard-production” vehicle to receive an autonomous license fromNevada. Mobileye announced that it struck deals with GM and VW to supplymapping data for the automakers’ self-driving car efforts. QNX, the BlackBerrydivision that supplies infotainment software for millions of vehicles, introduced itsplatform that is designed to provide a 360-degree surround view of the vehicle.
Forbes
CAR TECHNOLOGY ONCE AGAIN STOLE THE SHOW AT CES 2016
After a near-record year for supplier consolidation, insiders and executives expectautomotive industry tie-ups to continue in coming years. PricewaterhouseCoopersreports that the global automotive industry last year engaged in nearly 500 deals,including mergers and consolidations, totaling $63 billion. That includes 69 dealsinvolving automakers that represented $6 billion; and the auto components andsupplier industry with 190 deals that equaled $33 billion -- $2 billion less than therecord set in 2007 for suppliers.
The Detroit News
NECESSITY WILL DRIVE AUTO INDUSTRY TIE-UPS
PAGE |
M&A TRANSACTIONS
2
RECENT M&A TRANSACTIONS1,2
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
Date Target Business Description Acquirer
1/12/2016 Drake Automotive Group Manufactures and markets auto parts for classic and current model
Ford Mustangs, and also caters to vehicles such as Broncos, Jeeps,
Camaros and others.
Huron Capital Partners
1/5/2016* TowerSec Inc. Operates as an automotive cyber security vendor which develops and
provides on-board cyber security software to OEMs, suppliers, and
aftermarket telematics manufacturers.
Harman International
Industries, Incorporated
12/21/2015 Big Tex Trailer Manufacturing, Inc. Manufactures professional grade open trailers in North America. Bain Capital Private Equity
12/16/2015 Colwood-Langford Auto Supply
and B.H. McFarlane Automotive
Wholesaler of automotive parts and paint products. Uni-Select Inc.
12/7/2015* Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Engages in the automotive aftermarket serv ice and retail business,
offering a range of automotive maintenance and repair serv ices.
Icahn Enterprises, L.P.
12/8/2015 Aquia Auto Parts, Inc. Distributes paints, coatings, and other finishes to the automotive market. Finishmaster Inc.
11/24/2015 Dynojet Research, Inc. Develops and manufactures fuel management and diagnostic
products.
I rv ing Place Capital; New
Value Capital
11/19/2015 Colorado Components, Inc. Manufactures wheel alloys, tires, and accessories for all-terrain
vehicles, utility-terrain vehicles, low speed vehicles, recreational
vehicles, side by sides, and golf carts.
Wheel Pros, LLC
11/2/2015 Reading Truck Body, LLC Manufactures truck bodies and accessories. J.B. Poindexter & Co., Inc.
11/2/2015 Compass Automotive Group, LLC Manufactures safety-critical aluminum automotive components for
cars, motorcycles, and light trucks.
Shipston Group Limited
10/28/2015 Filter Sensing Technologies, Inc. Develops advanced measurement and control technologies. CTS Corporation
10/28/2015 Interstate Tire Distributor, Inc. Markets and distributes tires and wheels in California, Arizona, Utah, and
Nevada.
Omni United (S) Pte. Ltd.
10/26/2015 AL-KO Vehicle Technology Designs and manufactures trailer axles, trailer and caravan
components, chassis, and motorized chassis.
Dexter Axle Company, Inc.
10/22/2015 Carstar, Inc. Prov ides auto repair serv ices in the United States and Canada through
its network of auto repair shops.
Driven Brands, Inc.
10/21/2015 Who-Rae Pty Ltd Supplies automotive aftermarket accessories for retailers worldwide. Kraco Enterprises LLC
9/29/2015 Know How Systems Global LLC Provides automotive hail damage repair and paintless dent removal
serv ices.
Dent Wizard International
Corporation
9/29/2015 Eastern Manufacturing Inc. Designs, manufactures, and supplies exhaust and emissions products for
automotive, light truck, heavy-duty, off-road vehicles, and industrial
applications.
AP Exhaust Products, Inc.
9/25/2015* Truck-Lite Co., LLC Manufactures and distributes safety lighting products and accessories
to heavy-duty truck, trailer, and commercial vehicle industries.
BDT Capital Partners, LLC;
Koch Equity Development,
LLC
*Denotes pending transactions
PAGE |
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
3
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
TEV / LTM EBITDA TEV / 2016P EBITDA
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2012 – 2015E) AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2015E – 2017P)
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2012 – 2015E) AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2015E – 2017P)
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
6.0x
9.0x
11.8x
12.1x
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Distributors and Retailers
5.9x
8.3x
10.2x
10.6x
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Distributors and Retailers
0.4%
2.8%
6.0%
14.4%
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
0.9%
2.7%
5.8%
6.6%
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Suppliers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
2.2%
6.2%
7.0%
14.6%
Suppliers
Distributors and Retailers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
7.4%
8.3%
9.3%
13.1%
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Suppliers
PAGE |
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
4
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
(Indexed to January 12, 2015)
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS
MEDIAN % CHANGE (1 MONTH) MEDIAN % CHANGE (12 MONTH)
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-12-2015 Apr-12-2015 Jul-12-2015 Oct-12-2015 Jan-12-2016
Suppliers Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Service Providers Vehicle Manufacturers
S&P 500 Index
(18.3%)
(10.5%)
(9.6%)
(2.8%)
(4.4%)
Dealerships and
Service Providers
Suppliers
Vehicle
Manufacturers
Distributors and
Retailers
S&P 500
(17.8%)
(17.7%)
(4.3%)
18.3%
(5.9%)
Vehicle
Manufacturers
Dealerships and
Service Providers
Suppliers
Distributors and
Retailers
S&P 500
PAGE |
OUR GROUP
Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor to the transportation and logistics M&A market. Our Transportation & LogisticsGroup serves companies in a broad range of attractive niches, including third-party logistics (3PL), truck, rail, marineand air transportation, transportation equipment, and the automotive and heavy duty vehicle market.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
RECENTLY CLOSED T&L TRANSACTIONS
DEEP EXPERIENCE ACROSS T&L SECTORS
MARINE TRANSPORTATION
NICHE TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
RAIL & RAIL SERVICES
AUTOMOTIVE & HEAVY DUTY
VEHICLE
THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS
AIR TRANSPORTATION
5
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
a portfolio company of
has been acquired byhas been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
and
in partnership with
and
RCL Services Group
has sold
tohas been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
a portfolio company of
has acquired
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
Energy, Power& Infrastructure
IndustrialsHealthcare & Life Sciences
Transportation & Logistics
Aerospace, Defense & Government
Services
Business Services
Building Products & Materials
Technology, Media & Telecom
Specialty Distribution
Consumer
PAGE |
HARRIS WILLIAMS & CO. OFFICE LOCATIONS
UNITED STATES EUROPE
BostonTwo International Place24th FloorBoston, Massachusetts 02110Phone: +1 (617) 482-7501
Cleveland1900 East 9th Street20th FloorCleveland, Ohio 44114Phone: +1 (216) 689-2400
Minneapolis222 South 9th StreetSuite 3350Minneapolis, Minnesota 55402Phone: +1 (612) 359-2700
Richmond (Headquarters)1001 Haxall Point9th FloorRichmond, Virginia 23219Phone: +1 (804) 648-0072
San Francisco575 Market Street31st FloorSan Francisco, California 94105Phone: +1 (415) 288-4260
FrankfurtBockenheimer Landstrasse 33-3560325 FrankfurtGermanyPhone: +49 069 3650638 00
London63 Brook StreetLondon W1K 4HS, EnglandPhone: +44 (0) 20 7518 8900
NETWORK OFFICES
Beijing
Hong Kong
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Transportation & Logistics
Harris Williams & Co. has a broad range of industry expertise, which creates powerful opportunities.Our clients benefit from our deep-sector experience, integrated industry intelligence andcollaboration across the firm, and our commitment to learning what makes them unique. For moreinformation, visit our website.
6
OUR FIRM
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
PAGE |
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
7
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Jan-15 Jul-15 Current 2016P 2017P
Automotive Aftermarket
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
Suppliers
BorgWarner Inc. $9,115 $36.89 (7.4%) (31.1%) $63.30 58.3% 9.1x 9.7x 6.8x 5.9x 5.5x
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. 1,894 35.05 (8.9%) 1.5% 43.94 79.8% 4.6x 3.4x 3.7x 4.1x 4.2x
Dorman Products, Inc. 1,475 43.80 (4.9%) (8.0%) 53.75 81.5% 10.8x 10.8x 9.5x 8.6x 7.9x
Federal-Mogul Holdings Corporation 3,880 5.63 (17.4%) (60.5%) 15.87 35.5% 7.3x 7.8x 6.7x 5.8x 5.5x
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 12,807 28.59 (11.1%) 1.2% 35.30 81.0% 6.1x 5.6x 5.4x 4.8x 4.7x
Modine Manufacturing Company 432 7.10 (19.4%) (43.5%) 13.82 51.4% 6.1x 5.9x 4.4x 3.7x 3.2x
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. 596 32.17 (14.3%) 6.7% 41.03 78.4% 14.6x 14.4x 18.7x 7.1x 6.3x
Standard Motor Products Inc. 820 35.69 (8.9%) (0.5%) 45.72 78.1% 6.9x 7.6x 7.1x 7.0x 6.5x
Tenneco Inc. 3,587 41.42 (12.5%) (22.1%) 61.73 67.1% 5.9x 5.9x 4.9x 4.2x 4.0x
Visteon Corporation 1,914 104.86 (9.9%) 0.2% 121.65 86.2% 8.8x 7.7x 2.6x 6.3x 5.7x
Median (10.5%) (4.3%) 78.2% 7.1x 7.7x 6.0x 5.9x 5.5x
Distributors and Retailers
Advance Auto Parts Inc. $11,958 $147.05 (1.2%) (8.3%) $201.24 73.1% 10.7x 10.7x 9.2x 8.5x 7.9x
AutoZone, Inc. 26,289 718.69 (4.9%) 18.6% 803.25 89.5% 11.2x 11.7x 11.6x 11.1x 10.4x
Genuine Parts Company 12,359 79.07 (7.2%) (22.0%) 101.40 78.0% 12.7x 11.2x 9.7x 9.4x 9.1x
LKQ Corp. 9,638 26.73 (5.0%) (2.4%) 32.25 82.9% 12.6x 13.0x 11.4x 10.1x 8.8x
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. 24,590 237.94 (4.4%) 26.7% 277.96 85.6% 13.7x 15.4x 14.6x 13.0x 12.0x
Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack 1,252 18.47 13.0% 94.8% 19.03 97.1% 9.9x 12.1x 15.5x 14.5x 11.9x
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. 104 2.61 13.5% 18.1% 3.34 78.1% 17.3x NM 19.5x 9.3x NA
Uni-Select Inc. 1,104 47.02 1.1% 81.2% 50.47 93.2% 10.2x 13.8x 12.6x 11.1x 10.6x
Median (2.8%) 18.3% 84.2% 11.9x 12.1x 12.1x 10.6x 10.4x
Dealerships and Service Providers
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $3,018 $55.71 (20.8%) (25.2%) $96.58 57.7% 11.4x 12.4x 9.2x 8.6x 8.0x
AutoNation, Inc. 10,714 48.53 (20.8%) (17.7%) 67.50 71.9% 12.4x 12.3x 10.6x 9.5x 8.8x
Boyd Group Income Fund 837 42.86 (14.3%) 4.9% 49.62 86.4% 12.7x 11.7x 12.2x 10.3x 9.1x
CarMax Inc. 19,769 46.99 (18.2%) (27.8%) 75.40 62.3% NM NM 16.8x 16.6x 15.4x
Copart, Inc. 4,356 35.13 (8.2%) (2.7%) 39.86 88.1% 12.3x 11.5x 11.2x 10.2x 9.3x
Group 1 Automotive Inc. 4,084 61.15 (22.0%) (27.2%) 97.34 62.8% 11.1x 11.2x 10.0x 9.5x 8.7x
KAR Auction Services, Inc. 7,611 34.50 (8.9%) (0.5%) 39.87 86.5% 12.8x 12.5x 12.0x 10.6x 9.8x
Lithia Motors Inc. 4,110 87.50 (24.8%) 1.5% 126.56 69.1% 12.2x 14.5x 11.8x 10.0x 9.0x
Monro Muffler Brake Inc. 2,339 63.32 (9.0%) 11.1% 77.00 82.2% 14.7x 14.9x 14.8x 14.1x 12.3x
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 7,550 35.54 (19.4%) (27.9%) 54.39 65.3% 14.0x 13.9x 11.8x 10.9x 10.0x
Sonic Automotive Inc. 3,072 19.04 (18.3%) (27.0%) 26.60 71.6% 10.7x 11.0x 10.2x 9.8x 9.2x
Median (18.3%) (17.7%) 71.6% 12.3x 12.4x 11.8x 10.2x 9.2x
PAGE |
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
8
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Jan-15 Jul-15 Current 2016P 2017P
Automotive Aftermarket
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
Vehicle Manufacturers
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft $148,992 $90.73 (12.0%) (13.4%) $134.73 67.3% 9.9x 11.4x 10.3x 9.2x 8.9x
Daimler AG 175,743 74.20 (9.5%) (9.6%) 104.63 70.9% 11.1x 11.6x 9.9x 7.9x 7.6x
Ford Motor Co. 155,040 12.77 (6.4%) (16.0%) 16.74 76.3% 13.9x 13.7x 11.7x 12.1x 11.2x
General Motors Company 83,071 30.25 (12.4%) (15.0%) 39.00 77.6% 8.4x 5.9x 6.2x 5.1x 4.9x
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 14,156 42.90 (6.0%) (33.8%) 66.28 64.7% 12.8x 12.1x 10.3x 9.8x 9.7x
Navistar International Corporation 4,906 7.50 (15.3%) (76.2%) 32.59 23.0% NM 16.7x 11.5x 8.0x 7.2x
Oshkosh Corporation 3,424 34.58 (11.2%) (19.6%) 55.69 62.1% 6.7x 7.3x 6.6x 6.6x 6.1x
PACCAR Inc. 21,278 45.23 (4.3%) (30.7%) 68.44 66.1% 11.7x 10.1x 7.4x 9.4x 9.5x
Toyota Motor Corporation 303,614 58.48 (7.9%) (8.9%) 74.83 78.2% 9.8x 9.5x 8.0x 8.7x 8.2x
Volkswagen AG 156,782 127.48 (9.7%) (40.4%) 285.85 44.6% 7.8x 7.9x 8.0x 5.6x 5.0x
Median (9.6%) (17.8%) 66.7% 9.9x 10.7x 9.0x 8.3x 7.9x
PAGE |
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
9
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016P 2017P '12-15E '15E-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016P 2017P '12-15E '15E-17P
Automotive Aftermarket
Suppliers
BorgWarner Inc. $7,183 $7,437 $8,305 $7,835 $9,308 $9,977 2.9% 12.8% $1,126 $1,224 $1,398 $1,339 $1,513 $1,644 6.0% 10.8%
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. 4,201 3,439 3,425 2,964 3,018 3,106 (11.0%) 2.4% 629 483 518 448 464 445 (10.7%) (0.4%)
Dorman Products, Inc. 570 664 751 789 844 905 11.4% 7.1% 112 138 153 165 172 188 13.6% 6.7%
Federal-Mogul Holdings Corporation 6,444 6,786 7,317 7,390 7,584 7,790 4.7% 2.7% 439 565 611 605 659 710 11.3% 8.3%
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 20,992 19,540 18,138 16,429 16,593 16,876 (7.8%) 1.4% 1,819 2,105 2,251 2,526 2,704 2,779 11.6% 4.9%
Modine Manufacturing Company 1,577 1,376 1,478 1,496 1,393 1,449 (1.7%) (1.6%) 128 96 116 109 115 133 (5.3%) 10.6%
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. 179 213 259 302 382 432 19.1% 19.6% 31 37 35 36 83 94 5.5% 61.6%
Standard Motor Products Inc. 949 984 980 993 1,031 1,057 1.5% 3.2% 102 120 126 103 117 126 0.2% 10.7%
Tenneco Inc. 7,363 7,964 8,420 8,195 8,601 9,052 3.6% 5.1% 638 695 736 787 853 899 7.2% 6.9%
Visteon Corporation 5,715 6,371 7,509 3,087 3,232 3,396 (18.6%) 4.9% 479 560 646 274 306 335 (17.0%) 10.6%
Total $55,173 $54,774 $56,582 $49,479 $51,986 $54,039 0.4% 5.8% $5,503 $6,023 $6,590 $6,392 $6,987 $7,352 2.2% 13.1%
Distributors and Retailers
Advance Auto Parts Inc. $6,205 $6,494 $9,844 $9,765 $9,912 $10,227 16.3% 2.3% $847 $901 $1,243 $1,262 $1,400 $1,500 14.2% 9.0%
AutoZone, Inc. 8,604 9,148 9,475 10,187 10,738 11,355 5.8% 5.6% 1,841 2,000 2,081 2,223 2,382 2,545 6.5% 7.0%
Genuine Parts Company 13,014 14,078 15,342 15,373 15,752 16,273 5.7% 2.9% 1,114 1,209 1,273 1,270 1,310 1,377 4.5% 4.1%
LKQ Corp. 4,123 5,063 6,740 7,249 7,864 8,493 20.7% 8.2% 493 624 790 850 960 1,101 19.9% 13.8%
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. 6,182 6,649 7,216 7,926 8,499 9,043 8.6% 6.8% 1,159 1,291 1,468 1,717 1,882 2,047 14.0% 9.2%
Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack 2,064 2,091 2,067 2,085 2,075 2,114 0.3% 0.7% 147 118 109 78 86 99 (19.2%) 12.6%
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. 304 255 284 294 303 NA (1.1%) NA 8 5 5 8 11 NA 1.9% NA
Uni-Select Inc. 1,798 1,788 1,784 1,364 1,137 1,169 (8.8%) (7.4%) 79 82 92 98 99 103 7.5% 2.5%
Total $42,293 $45,565 $52,751 $54,242 $56,281 $58,675 6.0% 2.7% $5,687 $6,230 $7,062 $7,507 $8,130 $8,771 6.2% 8.3%
Dealerships and Service Providers
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $4,475 $5,128 $5,639 $6,596 $7,009 $7,381 13.8% 5.8% $210 $259 $297 $333 $350 $380 16.6% 6.9%
AutoNation, Inc. 15,020 16,674 18,180 21,002 23,108 24,470 11.8% 7.9% 737 827 915 1,027 1,121 1,217 11.7% 8.9%
Boyd Group Income Fund 436 544 729 836 919 1,017 24.3% 10.3% 28 39 59 71 81 90 36.9% 12.5%
CarMax Inc. 10,004 10,963 12,574 14,269 15,147 16,404 12.6% 7.2% 783 828 932 1,091 1,188 1,281 11.7% 8.4%
Copart, Inc. 924 1,046 1,163 1,146 1,186 1,244 7.4% 4.2% 338 351 362 389 427 460 4.7% 8.7%
Group 1 Automotive Inc. 7,216 8,607 9,571 10,657 11,223 11,801 13.9% 5.2% 271 322 386 384 422 478 12.4% 11.6%
KAR Auction Services, Inc. 1,963 2,173 2,365 2,608 2,782 3,057 9.9% 8.3% 471 495 574 655 715 771 11.6% 8.5%
Lithia Motors Inc. 3,204 3,867 5,200 7,866 8,489 9,068 34.9% 7.4% 166 210 266 365 408 442 30.2% 10.0%
Monro Muffler Brake Inc. 687 732 831 894 953 1,047 9.2% 8.2% 115 101 127 147 165 190 8.4% 13.8%
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 12,584 14,074 16,741 19,123 20,348 21,000 15.0% 4.8% 417 493 574 645 690 752 15.6% 8.0%
Sonic Automotive Inc. 8,115 8,571 8,897 9,624 10,035 10,241 5.8% 3.2% 288 300 300 298 312 326 1.1% 4.6%
Total $64,628 $72,380 $81,891 $94,620 $101,200 $106,731 14.4% 6.6% $3,824 $4,224 $4,792 $5,404 $5,880 $6,387 14.6% 9.3%
PAGE |
PUBLIC COMPARABLES
10
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016
Vehicle Manufacturers
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft $66,659 $75,546 $77,374 $96,471 $99,398 $102,410 13.1% 3.0% $13,956 $14,458 $14,636 $15,368 $16,046 $16,576 3.3% 3.9%
Daimler AG 122,715 132,833 142,477 137,845 159,761 166,664 4.0% 10.0% 14,309 14,947 15,784 20,429 21,299 22,454 12.6% 4.8%
Ford Motor Co. 128,168 126,567 139,369 135,782 138,793 145,572 1.9% 3.5% 11,464 12,370 11,211 10,916 12,855 13,560 (1.6%) 11.5%
General Motors Company 148,866 150,295 152,092 151,092 145,709 148,709 0.5% (0.8%) 10,914 12,356 9,084 14,848 15,643 17,297 10.8% 7.9%
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 4,662 4,943 5,258 5,568 5,330 5,481 6.1% (0.8%) 1,198 1,317 1,460 1,356 1,427 1,428 4.2% 2.6%
Navistar International Corporation 13,441 12,527 10,617 10,653 10,213 9,512 (7.5%) (5.5%) (468) (423) 152 425 614 688 NM 27.2%
Oshkosh Corporation 7,539 8,141 7,665 6,808 6,076 6,322 (3.3%) (3.6%) 511 636 622 517 524 557 0.4% 3.8%
PACCAR Inc. 15,326 15,952 15,949 17,793 18,136 17,245 5.1% (1.6%) 1,927 2,047 2,446 2,479 2,124 2,346 8.8% (2.7%)
Toyota Motor Corporation 215,055 212,497 222,030 236,160 225,419 240,861 3.2% 1.0% 17,273 26,711 34,414 34,667 34,062 36,481 26.1% 2.6%
Volkswagen AG 184,595 227,862 241,001 214,898 231,579 230,493 5.2% 3.6% 25,594 26,303 24,820 24,093 28,154 30,420 (2.0%) 12.4%
Total $907,026 $967,163 $1,013,833 $1,013,070 $1,040,414 $1,073,268 2.8% 0.9% $96,678 $110,722 $114,630 $125,098 $132,748 $141,807 7.0% 7.4%
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016P 2017P '12-15E '15E-17P 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016P 2017P '12-15E '15E-17P
Automotive Aftermarket
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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
SOURCES
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
1. Capital IQ.
2. MergerMarket.
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AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ JANUARY 2016