TravelClick: 2016 Lodging Outlook
Business Intelligence
Katie Moro
Director, Demand360 Data Partnerships
03/16/16
3/23/2016 2
25
North America Markets
231 Million
Room Nights
$37 Billion
Annual Room Revenue
365
Days in the future
3/23/2016 3
20,000+ Partners
Q4 2015 Wrap Up
3/23/2016 4
5
Q4, 2015
24.1%
34.2%
25.8%
12.8%
3.1%
Retail
Discount
Negotiated
Qualified
Wholesale
30.3%
12.8% 21.1%
19.2%
16.6%
Brand.com
CRS
Direct
GDS
OTA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Brand.com CRS Direct GDS OTA
Wholesale
Qualified
Negotiated
Discount
Retail
Customer Segmentation – Transient Room Nights
30.2%
21.0% 19.1%
12.7%
16.5%
4.3%
-7.2%
3.8%
-4.4%
3.5%
Brand.com Direct GDS CRS OTA
% of Transient
Var % vs LY
Var % vs LY (Across All Markets)
6
Q4, 2015
Channel Performance – Transient Room Nights
$157
$139
$187
$170
$147
2.1% 2.1% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1%
Brand.com Direct GDS CRS OTA
ADR
Var % to LY
Var % vs LY (All Channels)
7
Q4, 2015
Channel Performance – Transient Average Daily Rate
2016
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3/23/2016 9
Nationally, business on the books for the coming 12 months is up 3.7% over same time last year
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
-4,000,000
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Var
% t
o L
Y
Ro
om
Nig
hts
Top 25 North American Markets
Group Transient Var % to LY Full Yr Var %
For reservations on the books for 2016, which segment is leading the market (Top 25 US markets) for occupancy growth? a) Group b) Transient Business c) Transient Leisure
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Group and Leisure are up over last year in both occupancy and ADR, while Transient Business starts to slow down in occupancy
Group
Room Nights ADR
+0.6% +3.6%
Transient Business
-0.5% +4.0%
Transient Leisure
+2.3% +3.6%
Year over year variance % to same time last year for demand on the books for 2016 in top 25 North American markets
Negotiated, Retail
Discount, Qualified, Wholesale
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 01/17 02/17
Ro
om
Nig
hts
Current on the Books and Last Year Variance – Future 12 Months
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Va
rian
ce
% v
s L
ast Y
ea
r
Legend
TY Room Night
LY Room Nights
As of This Month
As of Last Month
12
As Of:
March 1, 2016
Scope:
Committed
Occupancy (Group
Block + Transient
Reserved)
12 Month Outlook by Month
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
03/16 04/16 05/16 06/16 07/16 08/16 09/16 10/16 11/16 12/16 01/17 02/17
Ro
om
Nig
hts
Current on the Books and Last Year Variance – Future 12 Months
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Va
rian
ce
% v
s L
ast Y
ea
r
Legend
TY Room Night
LY Room Nights
As of This Month
13
As Of:
March 1, 2016
Scope:
Committed
Occupancy
(Group Block)
Luxury
Upper Upscale
12 Month Outlook by Month
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Atlanta
Boston
Charlotte
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Detroit
Houston
Indianapolis
Los Angeles
Miami
Minneapolis St Paul
New York
Orlando
Philadelphia
Phoenix
San Antonio
San Diego
San Francisco
Seattle
St Louis
Tampa
Toronto
Washington DC
Pace Variance % versus Last Year
+20.4%
14
-30% -15% 0% 15% 30%
Atlanta
Boston
Charlotte
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Detroit
Houston
Indianapolis
Los Angeles
Miami
Minneapolis St Paul
New York
Orlando
Philadelphia
Phoenix
San Antonio
San Diego
San Francisco
Seattle
St Louis
Tampa
Toronto
Washington DC
Variance % versus Last Year
+5.4%
8.6%
6.0%
29.3%
-1.6%
14.2%
4.0%
46.7%
-20.5%
-15.5%
27.6%
26.3%
1.8%
3.7%
9.8%
5.5%
-4.4%
1.5%
-8.4%
16.1%
-2.4%
6.9%
-14.8%
-7.7%
-1.1%
18.8%
68.1%
14.1%
142.8%
40.9%
-21.1%
-43.0%
21.4%
282.7%
61.7%
-18.8%
73.2%
-14.9%
7.3%
57.2%
20.9%
-27.3%
65.1%
-31.8%
39.4%
58.2%
-58.8%
-42.3%
-42.3%
1.6%
16.5%
Legend:
Group Block
Variance – All
Markets
As Of:
March 1, 2016
Scope:
Occupancy (Group
Block)
Q4, 2016
Group Occupancy Outlook
35.6%
22.7%
13.7% 12.6% 14.9%
6.1%
-7.1%
0.3%
-4.6%
12.8%
Brand.com Direct GDS CRS OTA
% of Transient
Var % vs LY
Var % vs LY (Across All Markets)
15
Q1, 2016 – Q2, 2016
Channel Performance – Transient Room Nights
$172
$155
$191 $198
$178
2.5%
4.9%
2.8% 3.7% 3.3%
Brand.com Direct GDS CRS OTA
ADR
Var % to LY
Var % vs LY (All Channels)
16
Q1, 2016 – Q2, 2016
Channel Performance – Transient Average Daily Rate
42 43 42 42 44 45
47 49 48
42
48
52 55
58 61
64
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hotel Bookings (In Millions)
Source: TravelClick Agency360. Q4 2015.
17
GDS – Year over Year Performance
18
Q1, 2016 – Q2, 2016
Leading Markets for inbound US Travel
Besides the US, the following 10 countries provided the most bookings into the top 25 markets.
Source Country Canada Great Britain Australia Germany Japan India Korea Mexico Brazil Italy
*Upscale, Upper Upscale, and Luxury hotels
In Q4 2015, what % of transient bookings were made by a customer who is part of a loyalty program? A.) 30% B.) 60% C.) 85%
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Brand.com GDS Direct CRO OTA
Loyalty
Non-Loyalty
60.4%
39.6%
20
2015 Q4
Loyalty vs. Non-Loyalty Performance % of Transient Room Nights
0%
20%
40%
60%
20
11-Q
1
20
11-Q
2
20
11-Q
3
20
11-Q
4
20
12-Q
1
20
12-Q
2
20
12-Q
3
20
12-Q
4
20
13-Q
1
20
13-Q
2
20
13-Q
3
20
13-Q
4
20
14-Q
1
20
14-Q
2
20
14-Q
3
20
14-Q
4
20
15-Q
1
20
15-Q
2
20
15-Q
3
20
15-Q
4
. Loyalty Non Loyalty
21
Loyalty versus Non-Loyalty Share
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Group pace for Luxury & Upper Upscale hotels overall for next 12 months is flat with some high notes, but October is concerning.
Transient business demand growth has moderated, but ADR continues to grow.
Pricing has improved across the board, but most significantly in the leisure segment.
The GDS continues to be a major channel and properly positioning your hotels on this channel is important.
Loyalty continues to be an important factor in driving sales on Brand.com 2016 RevPAR growth (7-10%) will be balanced between occupancy (3-5%) and ADR (4-
6%), but with more ADR upside possible.
2016 Outlook
Katie Moro March 18, 2016 This Presentation is Online: www.TravelClick.com
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