8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
1/27
UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES DILIMAN
EXTENSION PROGRAM IN PAMPANGA
PHILIPPINE TREASURY BILL RATES PROJECTIONS
A PARTIAL REQUIREMENT
FOR
BM 145: INVESTMENTS
Prepared B:
Sapnu, Clarissa T.
2012 - 22!1
BM 145 SV!X" Se#$%d Se&e'(er" A#ade&)# Year *+15,*+1-
S./&)((ed ($:
Pr"#. N$rissa Cal%a
Da(e $0 S./&)'')$%
&a' 21, 201!
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
2/27
*
Su%%ar'
T)' paper 0$#.'e' $% (e pr$2e#()$% $0 P)3)pp)%e Trea'.r B)33 Ra(e' 0$r .%e
*+1- Fa#($r' (a( #$.3d a6e#( (e ra(e' $0 Trea'.r B)33' are a3'$ e&pa')7ed )% ()'
paper
Trea'.r B)33' $r T,/)33' are 'e#.r)()e' )''.ed / (e 8$9er%&e%( Te are
#$%')dered (e 'a0e'( )%9e'(&e%( /e#a.'e $0 (e)r r)',0ree %a(.re P.r#a')%8
Trea'.r /)33' &ea%' (a( $. are 3e%d)%8 &$%e ($ (e 8$9er%&e%( Trea'.r B)33'
are a9a)3a/3e )% (ree (e%$r': ;1,da" 1a( $. /)d 0$r
?$&pe()()9e /)dd)%8' are 0$r /)88er )%9e'($r' T$ de(er&)%e (e a&$.%( $0 'e#.r)()e'
a9a)3a/3e 0$r #$&pe()()9e /)dder'" (e %$%,#$&pe()()9e /)d' are @r'( ded.#(ed 0r$&
(e ($(a3 a&$.%( $0 'e#.r)( a%d (e re'( )' a9a)3a/3e ($ #$&pe()()9e /)dder' Te
8$9er%&e%( (e% a''e' (e )8e'( /)dd)%8' a%d a>ard (e #$rre'p$%d)%8 >)%%er'
!)%%)%8 /)d' are %$( p./3)#3 a%%$.%#ed /.( (e a&$.%( $0 (e 'e#.r)()e' $6ered )'
re3ea'ed / (e 8$9er%&e%(
I%9e'()%8 $% Trea'.r B)33' )' &ade ea')er >)( &$re @%a%#)a3 )%'()(.()$%'
$6er)%8 (e 'e#.r)()e' I%9e'($r' #a% pr$#eed ($ (e)r pre0erred /a%' ($ )%.)re
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
3/27
=
a/$.( (e)r Trea'.r /)33' pr$8ra&' I%9e'($r' #a% a3'$ d)re#(3 #e# (e pr$8ra&'
$6ered / (e B.rea. $0 Trea'.r" (e 8$9er%&e%( 'e#($r re'p$%')/3e 0$r &a%a8)%8
Trea'.r B)33'
F$r (e pa'( @9e ear'" (e (re%d $0 Trea'.r /)33 ra(e' a' /ee% .#(.a()%8
d.e ($ '$&e e9e%(' (a( #a.'ed a% e)(er )%#rea'e $r de#rea'e $% (e ra(e' S$&e
$0 (e'e e9e%(' are C1 BSP' %e> p$3)#)e'" C* #a%8e )% (e 3e9e3 $0 8$9er%&e%(
'pe%d)%8" a%d C= US Fed' )%.e%#e $% (e &are(
M$%)($r)%8 (e ra(e' $0 (e Trea'.r /)33' )' e''e%()a3 )% p3a%%)%8 0.(.re
)%9e'(&e%(' a%d a''e'')%8 )%9e'(&e%( p$r(0$3)$ D)6ere%( 0$re#a'()%8 &$de3' #a%
/e .'ed )% pr$2e#()%8 (e 0.(.re (re%d $0 Trea'.r /)33 ra(e' I% ()' paper" =
0$re#a'()%8 &e($d >ere .'ed: C1 Na9e appr$a#" C* M$9)%8 a9era8e &e($d"
a%d C= Tre%d F$re#a'()%8 M$de3 Be3$> are (e 0$re#a'(ed 9a3.e' 0$r .%e *+1-
.')%8 (e (ree 0$re#a'()%8 &e($d'
Na()$ Appr"a*+ &")in A)$ra$ Tr$n Anal'sis
1-a' 1-4 155* Q* =*+5
1/2-a' 1-5+ 1-*- Q* ==1-
!-a' 1
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
4/27
4
* S.pp3a I%#rea'e )% 8$9er%&e%( 'pe%d)%8 )%#rea'e' '.pp3 $0 T,/)33'
)%#rea')%8 (e ra(e/ De#rea'e )% 8$9er%&e%( 'pe%d)%8 de#rea'e' '.pp3 $0 T,/)33'
de#rea')%8 (e ra(e= E#$%$&)# #$%d)()$%'
a EJpa%')$% )%#rea'e' ra(e' 0$r T,/)33'/ Re#e'')$% de#rea'e' ra(e' 0$r T,/)33'
4 I%a()$% eJpe#(a()$%'a H)8 )%a()$% eJpe#(a()$% )8 ra(e' 0$r T,/)33'/ L$> )%a()$% eJpe#(a()$% 3$> ra(e' 0$r T,/)33'
I% pr$2e#()%8 (e 0.(.re (re%d $0 Trea'.r B)33'" )( )' )&p$r(a%( ($ #$%')der /$(
.a%()(a()9e a%d .a3)(a()9e 0a#($r' Q.a%()(a()9e 0a#($r' '.# a' 0$re#a'(ed 9a3.e'
#a% e3p )%9e'($r' 0$re'ee p$'')/3e 0.(.re ra(e' 0$r T,/)33' Q.a3)(a()9e 0a#($r' '.#
a' (e $%e' &e%()$%ed a/$9e '$.3d a3'$ /e #$%')dered /e#a.'e (e'e 0a#($r'
&)8( a6e#( 0.(.re )%9e'(&e%( de#)')$%' I% (e e%d" )( )' '()33 .p ($ (e )%9e'($r ($
de#)de Te &e%()$%ed 0a#($r' are $%3 )%d)#a($r' $% $> 'pe#)@# 'e#.r)()e' >)33
/ea9e Te per'$%a3)( $0 (e )%9e'($r )' a3'$ a &a2$r 0a#($r (a( a6e#(' )'Ker
)%9e'(&e%( de#)')$%'
Tal$ "# C"n3$n3s
I I%(r$d.#()$%5
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
5/27
5
A !a( are Trea'.r B)33'5
B H$> Trea'.r B)33' !$r-
? ! I%9e'( $% Trea'.r B)33'-
D H$> ($ I%9e'( $% Trea'.r B)33'
II Pre'e%(a()$% $0 Da(a<
A O9era33 Tre%d $0 Trea'.r B)33'<
B Trea'.r B)33 Ra(e' F$re#a'(1+
a Na9e F$re#a'()%8 Me($d1+
/ M$9)%8 A9era8e Me($d11
# Tre%d F$re#a'(1=
? Fa#($r' (a( A6e#( Trea'.r B)33 Ra(e'1
III ?$%#3.')$%1<
IV Appe%d)J1;
Appe%d)J A 1;
Appe%d)J B *+
Appe%d)J ? *1
V B)/3)$8rap*4
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
6/27
-
I. In3r"u*3i"n
A. 4+a3 ar$ Tr$asur' Bills5
Trea'.r B)33' $r T, /)33' are '$r(,(er& pr$&)''$r %$(e' )''.ed / (e
Na()$%a3 G$9er%&e%( Te'e are d)re#(" .%#$%d)()$%a3" a%d 0.33 8.ara%(eed
$/3)8a()$%' $0 (e Rep./3)# $0 (e P)3)pp)%e' T, /)33' are (e &$'( a#()9e3, (raded
7er$,#$.p$% de/( )%'(r.&e%('1 T /)33' are /e'( re#$&&e%ded 0$r )%d)9)d.a3 a%d
#$rp$ra(e )%9e'($r' >$ are 3$$)%8 0$r '$r( (er& a%d r)',0ree )%9e'(&e%(
a3(er%a()9e' I% (e P)3)pp)%e' (e B.rea. $0 Trea'.r &a%a8e' (e Trea'.r B)33'
T, /)33' are 'e#.r)( )''.ed / (e G$9er%&e%( B.)%8 $%e &ea%' (a( $.
are 3e%d)%8 &$%e ($ (e G$9er%&e%( U'.a33" T,/)33' are '$3d 0$r 3e'' (a% >a(
(e are a#(.a33 >$r( F$r eJa&p3e" a T,/)33 &a /e >$r( Pp1"+++" /.( $. #a%
/. )( 0$r Pp;++ T, /)33' are )''.ed >)( ;1,da'" 1
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
7/27
PV Pr)%#)pa3 Va3.e $0 Trea'.r B)33
( (er& $r (e%$r Ce8 ;1 da'
d d)'#$.%(
B. H"6 Tr$asur' Bills 4"r7
Trea'.r /)33' are )''.ed (r$.8 a #$&pe()()9e /)dd)%8 pr$#e'' a( a.#()$%'
Te a.#()$% >)33 '(ar( >)( a% a%%$.%#e&e%( 0r$& (e 8$9er%&e%( Te 8$9er%&e%(
>)33 )''.e (e p./3)# $6er)%8 >)( (e a&$.%( $0 (e T,/)33' ($ /e a.#()$%ed >)( (e)r
#$rre'p$%d)%8 &a(.r)( da(e' CSee Appe%d)J A a%d B Tere are (>$ (pe' $0 /)d':
%$%,#$&pe()()9e a%d #$&pe()()9e I% %$%,#$&pe()()9e /)dd)%8" $. >)33 re#e)9e (e
0.33 a&$.%( $0 (e 'e#.r)( a( (e re(.r% de(er&)%ed a( (e a.#()$% N$%,#$&pe()()9e
/)d' are .'.a33 './&)((ed / '&a33 )%9e'($r' a%d )%d)9)d.a3' !)( #$&pe()()9e
/)dd)%8" $. a9e ($ 'pe#)0 (e re(.r% (a( $. >$.3d 3)e ($ re#e)9e I0 (e re(.r%
$. 'pe#)0 )' ($$ )8" $. &)8( %$( re#e)9e a% 'e#.r)()e'" $r 2.'( a p$r()$% $0
>a( $. /)d 0$r ?$&pe()()9e /)dd)%8' are 0$r /)88er )%9e'($r'=
T$ de(er&)%e (e >)%%)%8 /)d'" (e B.rea. $0 Trea'.r >)33 >$r (e)r >a
d$>% (e 3)'( $0 (e /)dder'" a##ep()%8 (e )8e'( /)d' F)r'(" (e depar(&e%( &.'(
%$> (e a&$.%( $0 'e#.r)()e' a9a)3a/3e 0$r (e %$%,#$&pe()()9e /)dder' T)' )'
d$%e / './(ra#()%8 (e %$%,#$&pe()()9e /)d' 0r$& (e ($(a3 a&$.%( $0 'e#.r)()e'
$6ered Te re'( $0 (e a&$.%( >)33 (e% /e a9a)3a/3e 0$r (e #$&pe()()9e /)dder'
Te de(a)3ed 3)'( $0 a##ep(ed a%d re2e#(ed #$&pe()()9e /)d' )' %$( re3ea'ed ($ (e
p./3)#" /.( (e ($(a3 a&$.%( $0 /)d' re#e)9ed a%d ($(a3 a##ep(ed are &ade a9a)3a/3e
C. 4+' In)$s3 "n Tr$asur' Bills
S)%#e )%9e'()%8 $% #$&pa% '($#' )' #$%')dered r)'" $. &)8( >a%( ($
#$%')der )%9e'()%8 $% 8$9er%&e%( 'e#.r)()e' '.# a' Trea'.r B)33' T)' (pe $0
)%9e'(&e%( )' r)',0ree /e#a.'e (ere )' a 9er 3$> #a%#e (a( (e 8$9er%&e%( >)33
de0a.3( $% )(' $>% #.rre%# de/( Te)r '$r(,(er& %a(.re )' a3'$ a 0a#($r /e#a.'e
$. >)33 %$( $>% (e& 3$%8 e%$.8 0$r )%a()$% ($ a9e a #a%#e ($ ')8%)@#a%(3
= $/a" Mar Trea'.r B$%d A.#()$%: ?NB? EJp3a)%' CNBC. a%.ar *4" *+1=((p:KK>>>#%/##$&K)dK1++4+5+;- Ca##e''ed Ma 1" *+1-
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
8/27
<
er$de (e)r 9a3.e A( (e 'a&e ()&e" (e 3a> re.)re' (e Trea'.r ($ pa (e& /a#
F.r(er&$re" ')%#e (e Trea'.r #a% pr)%( )(' $>% &$%e" (ere' e''e%()a33 %$
#a%#e (a( $. >$%( /e pa)d /a#4
I%(ere'( #a% a3'$ /e 8e%era(ed /e0$re $r $% (e &a(.r)( da(e $0 (e 'e#.r)( T$.8 T,/)33' are %$( (e )8e'( pa)%8 )%9e'(&e%( a9a)3a/3e" (e a&$.%( $0
)%(ere'( )' #$%')dera/3 )8 e%$.8 (a% %$r&a3 'a9)%8' a##$.%( $r ()&e dep$')(
a##$.%(
. H"6 3" In)$s3 "n Tr$asur' Bills
!ere ($ /. (rea'.r /)33' )% (e P)3)pp)%e'
Y$. #a% p.r#a'e T,/)33' 0r$& a /r$er $r dea3er Y$. #a% a3'$ p.r#a'e d)re#(3 0r$&
(e B.rea. $0 Trea'.r (r$.8 (e)r p./3)# $6er)%8' A3(er%a(e3" $. #a% a3'$
p.r#a'e 0r$& /a%' $r $(er @%a%#)a3 )%'()(.()$%' (a( $6er Trea'.r B)33' Be3$>
are '$&e $0 (e )%'()(.()$%' (a( $6er' Trea'.r B)33'5
1. PNB 8P+ilippin$ Na3i"nal Ban79
• M)%)&.& )%9e'(&e%( )' P*++"+++
• Te%$r' are a9a)3a/3e )% ;1" 1
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
9/27
;
• Tra%'a#()$% D$#.&e%( : ?$%@r&a()$% N$()#e
Fea(.re': I( #a% /e .'ed a' #$33a(era3 0$r 3$a%' >)( BDO I%(ere'( )%#$&e $% (e
)%9e'(&e%( )' './2e#( ($ *+ @%a3 >)($3d)%8 (aJ
. BPI 8Ban7 "# 3+$ P+ilippin$ Islans9
• M)%)&.& p.r#a'e P1++"+++ 0$r =-4,Da (rea'.r /)33'
• )%(ere'( ra(e )' './2e#(ed ($ *+ (aJ
. &$3r"an7
• M)%)&.& a&$.%( re.)red: P5++"+++
• Te%$r' $0 ;1" 1)# )' de(er&)%ed /a'ed
$% 'e9era3 0a#($r' '.# a' (e de&a%d a%d '.pp3 0$r (e 'e#.r)(" a%d (e )%a()$%
ra(e Te '.&&ar $0 (e Trea'.r B)33 ra(e' per ear )' '$>% )% Appe%d)J ?
- A/$.( G$9er%&e%( Se#.r)()e' Bureau of Treasury. ((p:KK>>>(rea'.r8$9pK
pa8e)d14=+ Ca##e''ed Ma 1-" *+1-
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
10/27
1+
F)8.re 1
Te @8.re a/$9e '$>' (e (re%d $0 (e P)3)pp)%e Trea'.r B)33' 0r$& *+1+ ($
pre'e%( A' '$>% $% (e @8.re" (ere )' a .#(.a()%8 (re%d $% (e ra(e' $0 (e
(rea'.r /)33' 0$r (e pa'( 5 ear'
I% (e /e8)%%)%8 $0 *+1+" (e 8$9er%&e%( ad '$3d P5-55 /)33)$% >$r( $0 T,
/)33' )% a% a.#()$% 3$>er (a% (e pr$8ra&&ed 'a3e $0 Pa' 14 /a')' p$)%(' 3$>er
G$%7a3e'" Ir)' ? ;1,da Trea'.r /)33' d$>% Philstar. a%.ar *-" *+1+((p:KK>>>p)3'(ar#$&:
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
11/27
11
(a% (e pre9a)3)%8 /e'( /)d' a( (e P)3)pp)%e Dea3)%8 a%d EJ#a%8e ?$rp" >)#
>a' =-*5 A##$rd)%8 ($ Na()$%a3 Trea'.rer R$/er($ B Ta%" (e a.#()$% re'.3('
'$>ed (a( )%9e'($r' >ere '()33 .%#er(a)% a/$.( (e Ba%8$ Se%(ra3 %8 P)3)p)%a'
%eJ( p$3)# ra(e &$9e<
I% *+1*" (e )e3d $% (e /e%#&ar ;1,da (rea'.r /)33' r$'e *+1 /a')'
p$)%(' ($ a% a9era8e *14< per#e%( a' (e 8$9er%&e%( (r)ed ($ (e&per )%9e'($r'
p.' 0$r )8er ra(e' I%(ere'( ra(e' $% /$( (e 1 $%e per#e%(
A##$rd)%8 ($ (e Na()$%a3 Trea'.rer" (e pre9)$.' )e3d $% (e /e%#&ar /)33' &)8(
a9e /ee% ($$ 3$> (a( (e &are( #$rre#(ed .p>ard 1+
B *+14" (e )%(ere'( ra(e' a9e '(ar(ed ($ r)'e a/$9e 1 Te @r'( .ar(er
>a' re#$rded >)( 1+-5 A##$rd)%8 ($ (e B.rea. $0 (e Trea'.r" (e (aper)%8 /
(e US Federa3 Re'er9e pr$&p(ed /a%' ($ 'ee )8er )e3d' H$>e9er" eJ(er%a3
de9e3$p&e%(' '$.3d %$( #a.'e a 'arp r)'e )% 3$#a3 )%(ere'( ra(e' /e#a.'e (e
e#$%$&)# 0.%da&e%(a3' $0 (e P)3)pp)%e' re&a)%ed '$3)d R)' a9er')$% d.e ($ (e
US Fed' (aper)%8 dr$9e ra(e' a( (e a.#()$% a/$9e pre9a)3)%8 'e#$%dar &are(
ra(e'" pr$&p()%8 (e a.#()$% #$&&)((ee' de#)')$% ($ re2e#( /)d'11
< ;1,da T,/)33 Y)e3d r)'e' ($ +;1; Inquirer. N$9e&/er *" *+11
((p:KK/.')%e'')%.)rer%e(K*
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
12/27
1*
B (e e%d $0 *+15" Trea'.r /)33 )e3d' r$'e a#r$'' (e /$ard aead $0 a 3)e3
US Federa3 Re'er9e ra(e )e A##$rd)%8 ($ (e Trea'.r" A&)d ea3( %a()$%a3
8$9er%&e%( #a' p$')()$%" 3)&)(ed de&a%d a%d r)')%8 ra(e'" (e a.#()$% #$&&)((ee
de#)ded ($ par()a33 a>ard ($ pr$9)de &are( 8.)da%#e a%d a33$> a 8rad.a3
ad2.'(&e%( )% 3)8( $0 (e p$'')/3e Fed ra(e 3)0(,$6 )% De#e&/er1*
Te e9e%(' a/$9e are '$&e $0 (e 0a#(' /e)%d (e .%'(a/3e ra(e $0 Trea'.r /)33'
Tere are 'e9era3 0a#($r' (a( #$.3d a6e#( (e )%(ere'( ra(e' '.# a' 8$9er%&e%('
$>% p$3)#)e' a%d (e US Fed Te 'a3e $0 Trea'.r B)33' )' (e 8$9er%&e%(' >a $0
/$rr$>)%8 &$%e T.'" )( )' )&p$r(a%( ($ &$%)($r (e ra(e $0 Trea'.r B)33 /e#a.'e )(
)' a3'$ a% )%d)#a($r $0 $.r e#$%$&' ea3(
B. Tr$asur' Bill Ra3$s :"r$*as3
D)6ere%( 0$re#a'()%8 &e($d #a% /e .'ed ($ 0$re#a'( (e 0.(.re ra(e' $0 (e
Trea'.r B)33 I% ()' paper" (ree 0$re#a'()%8 &$de3 >)33 /e .'ed ($ 0$re#a'( (e
Trea'.r B)33 ra(e 0$r (e %eJ( a.#()$%
a. Na()$ :"r$*as3in &$3+"
O%e $0 (e ')&p3e'( 0$re#a'()%8 &e($d' )' (e Na9e Appr$a# I% ()'
&e($d" (e 3a'( per)$d' a#(.a3 9a3.e' are .'ed ($ 0$re#a'( (e %eJ( per)$d' 9a3.e
>)($.( ad2.'()%8 (e& $r a((e&p()%8 ($ e'(a/3)' #a.'a3 0a#($r'
201! 1-a' 1/2-a' !-a' All &a3uri3i$s
Januar' 1-
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
13/27
1=
&a' 1-4 1-5+ 1)33 /e .'ed ($ &ae (e 0$re#a'(
i. !"#ay Forecast
P$ri" 1-a' Ra3$ -p$ri" &")in
A)$ra$:$ruar' 8201$rdpre''#$&K*+1+K+5K+-K0$re#a'(,0r)da,($p)#,&$9)%8,a9era8e,&e($d',*K Ca##e''ed Ma *+" *+1-
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
14/27
14
&ar*+ 14++April 1-;-&a' NI Jun$ 14
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
15/27
15
G)9e% (e .ar(er3 da(a" (e @r'( '(ep )% (e (re%d 0$re#a'()%8 &e($d )' ($
#$&p.(e 0$r (e #e%(er &$9)%8 a9era8e )% $rder ($ arr)9e a( a##.ra(e 'ea'$%a3
)%d)#e' T$ 8e( (e ?MA" (ae (e a9era8e $0 (e ra(e' 0$r e9er @9e .ar(er'
i. !"#ay Tren# Forecast
Y$ar ;uar3$r 1-a' C&A S$as"nal
Ra3i"
201 * 0./!
= 0.!!/
4 0.001 +-4 +++1-
201 1 1.0!< + $s$as"nali?$ Ra3$s
201 0./! 1*45 +=1+
0.!!/ 1+
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
16/27
1-
201! 1. 0$r&.3a(e (e (re%d 3)%e
e.a()$% / p3$(()%8 (e da(a )%($ a 3)%ear 8rap
U')%8 (e e.a()$% $0 (e (re%d 3)%e" >e #a% %$> 0$re#a'( (e 9a3.e' 0$r (e
%eJ( .ar(er
201! $s$as"nali?
$
S$as"nali?$
;2 *54 =*+5
; *-5 =++5
; *;5- 14=
ii. !$%")ay Tren# Forecast
Y$ar ;uar3$r 1/2-a' C&A S$as"nal Ra3i"
201 * 0.
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
17/27
1
= 0./=
4 0.0! +
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
18/27
1<
U')%8 (e e.a()$% $0 (e (re%d 3)%e" >e #a% %$> 0$re#a'( (e 9a3.e' 0$r (e
%eJ( .ar(er
201! $s$as"nali?$
S$as"nali?$
;2 *--4 ==1-
; *
4 1
4 1
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
19/27
1;
1./0 1.0= 1-
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
20/27
*+
O/'er9)%8 (e re'.3(' 8e%era(ed 0r$& (e (ree 0$re#a'()%8 &e($d'" >e #a%
'ee (a( (e 0$re#a'(ed 9a3.e' .')%8 (e (re%d 3)%e are /)( d)6ere%( 0r$& (e %a9e
appr$a# a%d &$9)%8 a9era8e Tre%d 3)%e 0$re#a'()%8 )' $%3 .'ed 0$r da(a >)(
)%#rea')%8 $r de#rea')%8 (re%d Fr$& ()'" >e #a% )%0er (a( (e da(a a' %$ 'pe#)@#
pa((er%" a%d (e (re%d 3)%e 0$re#a'()%8 &e($d )' %$( a% a##.ra(e ($$3 ($ 0$re#a'(
(e 0.(.re 9a3.e' $0 (e ra(e' A&$%8 (e (ree &e($d'" (e &$9)%8 a9era8e )' (e
&$'( a##.ra(e /e#a.'e )( #a% /e .'ed ($ &ae 0$re#a'( .')%8 da(a >)( ra%d$&
pa((er%
I( )' e''e%()a3 ($ .%der'(a%d ea# 0$re#a'()%8 &e($d )% $rder ($ 8e%era(e
a##.ra(e re'.3(' Ea# &e($d a' )(' p.rp$'e (ere0$re )( )' )&p$r(a%( ($ @'(
$/'er9e (e da(a a%d de(er&)%e )0 (ere )' a pa((er% )% $rder ($ de(er&)%e >)#
0$re#a'()%8 ($$3 >)33 /e .'ed
C. :a*3"rs 3+a3 A@$*3 Tr$asur' Bill Ra3$s
!. )eman# for Treasury Bills
G)9e% (a( Trea'.r /)33' are (e 'a0e'( a&$%8 a33 (e 'e#.r)()e'" )%9e'($r'
>$ a9e )8 #$%#er%' re8ard)%8 de0a.3( $r 3).)d)( r)' )% $(er @%a%#)a3 &are('
(e%d ')0( (e)r )%9e'(&e%(' )%($ T,/)33' Te 3a> $0 de&a%d a3'$ app3)e' )% Trea'.r
B)33' !e% (ere )' a )8 de&a%d 0$r (e 'e#.r)()e'" (e )%(ere'( ra(e >)33 de#3)%e
%. *upply
Te '.pp3 $0 Trea'.r B)33' depe%d' $% (e &$%e(ar %eed $0 (e
8$9er%&e%( I0 (ere )' a% )%#rea'e )% 8$9er%&e%( 'pe%d)%8" (e '.pp3 0$r T,/)33'
>)33 )%#rea'e /e#a.'e (e 8$9er%&e%( >)33 %eed add)()$%a3 0.%d)%8 !e% (e '.pp3
)%#rea'e'" (e )%(ere'( ra(e a3'$ )%#rea'e'
&. +conomic con#itions
Trea'.r /)33' (p)#a33 r)'e d.r)%8 /.')%e'' eJpa%')$% a%d 0a33 d.r)%8
re#e'')$%' T)' appe%' /e#a.'e d.r)%8 eJpa%')$%'" )%9e'($r' are 3e'' 0ear0.3 a%d
&$re >)33)%8 ($ )%9e'( )% r)')er )%'(r.&e%('
(. In,ation
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
21/27
*1
I%a()$% eJpe#(a()$%' are a3'$ 0a#($r' )% de(er&)%)%8 )%(ere'( ra(e' Per)$d' $0
re3a()9e3 )8 C3$> ra(e' $0 )%a()$% .'.a33 are a''$#)a(ed >)( re3a()9e3 )8
C3$> )%(ere'( ra(e' $% T,/)33'
III. C"n*lusi"n
I%9e'()%8 $% d)6ere%( (pe' $0 'e#.r)()e' #a% a3'$ /e a '$.r#e $0 )%#$&e
N$>ada'" 'e9era3 @%a%#)a3 )%'()(.()$%' $6er 'e#.r)()e' >)( #$rre'p$%d)%8 )%(ere'(
a%d r)' I%9e'($r' >$ are 'e%')()9e $% (e r)' 3e9e3 $0 a% )%9e'(&e%(" (e '$.3d
#$%')der )%9e'()%8 $% Trea'.r /)33' ($.8 (e re(.r% 0r$& T,/)33' )' 0ar 3e'' (a%
0r$& '($#' I%9e'()%8 $% T,/)33' )' &ade ea')er /e#a.'e (ere are 'e9era3
)%'()(.()$%' (a( $6er ()' (pe $0 'e#.r)(
F$r (e 3a'( @9e ear'" (e )%(ere'( ra(e $0 (rea'.r /)33' a' /ee% )%#rea')%8 T)' d.e ($ (e )&pr$9)%8 e#$%$& a%d (e e6$r(' $0 (e 8$9er%&e%( ($ a3)8% (e
pr)&ar &are( a%d (e 'e#$%dar &are( I%9e'($r' a3'$ &$%)($r (e ra(e $0
(rea'.r /)33' /e#a.'e ()' a6e#(' (e)r de#)')$%' re8ard)%8 (e)r )%9e'(&e%(
p$r(0$3)$' I0 (ere )' a% e#$%$&)# d$>%(.r% (a( >$.3d %e8a()9e3 a6e#( (e)r $(er
)%9e'(&e%('" (e #a% a3>a' ')0( ($ Trea'.r /)33' >)# )' 3e'' r)'
T$ pred)#( (e p$'')/3e (re%d $0 Trea'.r B)33' )% (e 0.(.re" )%9e'($r' #a% .'e
d)6ere%( 0$re#a'()%8 &e($d I( >)33 e3p (e& p3a% (e)r 0.(.re )%9e'(&e%(' a%d ($
rea''e'' (e)r )%9e'(&e%( p$r(0$3)$
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
22/27
**
I. App$ni>
App$ni> A
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
23/27
*=
App$ni> B
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
24/27
*4
App$ni> C
Tr$asur' Bills Ra3$ #"r 2010 - 2011
'
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
25/27
*5
Tr$asur' Bills Ra3$ #"r 2012 201
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
26/27
*-
Tr$asur' Bills Ra3$ #"r 201 201!
8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast
27/27
*
. Bili"rap+'
;1,Da T,/)33 ra(e r)'e' ($ *14% Philstar. a%.ar *-" *+1+((p:KK>>>p)3'(ar#$&:>>/a%#$&#$&pK(rea'pp Ca##e''edMa 1-" *+1-
$/a" Mar Trea'.r B$%d A.#()$%: ?NB? EJp3a)%' CNBC. a%.ar *4" *+1=
((p:KK>>>#%/##$&K)dK1++4+5+;- Ca##e''ed Ma 1" *+1-
Re&$" M)#e33 V ;1,da T,/)33 ra(e r)'e' ($ 145