TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1
Expect market to strengthen today as EIDO increased by +1%. PGAS share price increased +11% yesterday as market took opportunity on its lag vs JCI in the past 1 month knowing that 4Q15 results will be a surprise in our view. We went to HOKI’s pubex yesterday, and come up with summaries; valuation range of 13-16x P/E FY16F (vs AISA 14x), IPO fund will be used to pay its payables, while inventory is expected to increase. Negative development on
ISAT from news about additional license cost to be paid to majority share-holder (Ooredo) if ISAT achieved positive net profit.
TRIM Daily
TRIM Highlights
Nov 19, 2015
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 3 point to 4498 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by basic infrastructure (+1.5% basic industry (+1.2%) and trade (-0.9%). Total transaction value was Rp4.4tr. JCI recorded RP3.4bn net sell by foreign investors. JCI today is expected to strenghtening trend and trade in 4435-4505 range
Technical Market View
Fed minutes released on Wednesday continued to flag December as a likely time for interest rates to rise after seven years near zero, with two express-ing confidence they will be able to pull off a rate hike smoothly despite fears of an abrupt market reaction. Investors reacted by increasing the odds for a rate increase next month to 72%, from 64%.
Global Wrap
Technical analysis: trading picks
JCI 4,497.9
Global Indices
Dual Listing (NYSE)
Stock Price Rating Reason
SMGR 11500 Buy
After broke resisten at level 11200, SMGR formed a white candle pattern on the peak of its downtrend channel formation. SMGR with trading range at 11200-12050
UNTR 17050 Buy UNTR a potential upside today with trading range 16700-17550
PWON 433 Buy PWON formed a white candle yesterday, PWON have a potential upwrd movement at trading range 415-445
PGAS 2910 Buy We believe PGAS have a continues strenghtening at range level 2850-3100
RALS 725 Buy RALS long term bullish, white long candle with increased volume. RALS today will trade in range 705-745
SMRA 1415 Spec Buy MACD indicates positive signal of a potential technical rebound for SMRA. SMRA today trad-ing range is around 1380-1510
Change -0.07%
Transaction Volume (m) 3,387
Transaction Value (Rpbn) 4,443
Mkt Cap (Rptr) 4,748
Market 2015 P/E (x) 12.9
Market Div. Yield (%) 2.8%
Price Chg %
Dow Jones 17,737.2 247.7 1.4
Nasdaq 5,075.2 89.2 1.8
Nikkei 19,649.2 19 0.1
ST Times 2,886.1 -30.7 -1.1
FTSE 6,279.0 10.2 0.2
Hang Seng 22,188.3 -76 -0.3
Chg %
USD IDR 13,819 73 0.5
10 yr Indo Govt bond (%) 8.61 -0.0 -0.3
10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.3 0.01 0.2
Spread (%) 6.34 -0.03 -0.5
EIDO 20.9 0.2 1.0
Foreign YtD (USDmn) (2,901) -0 0.0
JCI Index, Avg 5D MA Value
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
(Rpbn)Avg. 5 Day MA Trading Value (RHS) Price (LHS)
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2
IPO: PT Buyung Poetra Sembada (HOKI)
Buyung Poetra Sembada
• Established in 2003, PT Buyung Poetra Sembada (HOKI) operates as a branded rice production & distribution
company, specifically the "Topikoki" brand (83% of revenue), located in Cipinang Central Rice Market, Jakar-
ta. Other brands are Rumah Limas, Belida, and BPS. HOKI als produces and distributes private label rice
products in Indonesia with several partners; Indomaret, Hypermart, Giant, Hero, Lotte Mart, etc. In 1H15,
the top 5 customers are Indomaret, HERO, MPPA, Trans Retail, and Lotte Mart.
• The current business model of HOKI is buying low quality rice and then giving value-added process to get
high quality rice. The production process consist of cleaning, paddy separating, whitening, polishing, de-
stoning, and packaging. According to AC Nielsen survey, HOKI has 35% modern trade rice sales market
share.
• HOKI plans to expand the company's production process from the use of paddy as raw materials, to reduce
dependency on rice as raw materials. HOKI will buy premium quality paddy, instead of rice, and process it to
become the superior branded rice quality. Based on management's past experience in Palembang, the up-
stream plan will bring 10% gross profit margin expansion.
• The funds obtained from IPO would be used to increase working capital. Post IPO, HOKI will be able to pay
off its 205 suppliers much more quickly, which should ensure greater rice supplies. This should help to guar-
antee supplies during the current El Nino period. Additionally, HOKI plans to build silos for paddy storage and
we are looking at higher inventory turnover to a maximum average of 85 days.
• HOKI's turnover days 1H15, : 68 receivable days, 131 payable days, and 81 inventory days. The company
reached Rp45.9bn Net profit 1H15 (314% increase YoY) with operating income only Rp23.9bn and Rp28bn
from gain on short term investment. Core profit 1H15 Rp16.7bn (50% increase YoY). HOKI expects net in-
come Rp55bn 2015F, Rp76bn 2016F, and Rp100bn 2017F.
• By using market cap post IPO range of Rp991-1,180bn, this translates to 13-16x range of 2016F P/E (vs
AISA trades at 14x 2016F P/E).
• From 30.08% shares offered, 2% out of it (max 14.2 mn shares) will be allocated for ESA (employee stock
allocation) program.
Market cap post IPO Rp991.2-1,180bn
Deal Size Rp298.2-355bn
Offering Price Range Rp420-500/share
Shares Offered Max 710mn shares (30.08%)
Book Bulding Period 18-26 November 2015
Listing Date 16 December 2015
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 3
News of the Day
Banks: lowered minimum RRR does not mean lower
lending rates
Bankers view the lower minimum RRR positively but they
are still maintaining lending rates. This is due to un-
changed benchmark interest rate at 7.5%. Current con-
cern remains on weak loan demand, not on liquidity.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])
Media: ad spending picks up in 3Q15 on govern-
ment programs
According to Nielsen Indonesia, ad spending growth on a
YoY basis in 2Q15 was 6% (vs. 12% in 2Q14 due to
political campaign). In 3Q15, the government appeared
to be the biggest ad spender during July-September
period. The government has spent Rp4.58tn on ads until
9M15 (-15% decrease from last year) despite the amount
was much higher than consumer goods ad spending. Hair
care segment, which is the biggest spender among con-
sumer goods segments, spent only Rp3.35tn. Source:
The Jakarta Post
Telco: Govt to announce in 1Q16 the tender winner
for 2,100Mhz spectrum (block 11 & 12 @5Mhz)
These two 3G blocks were previously owned by Axis,
which were submitted back to Govt after Axis acquisition
by EXCL. Telkomsel (TLKM) and EXCL target to acquired
2 blocks, while ISAT and Tri intends to own 1 block.
Telkomsel aims to add spectrum as its spectrum already
more densed than other operators due to high number of
subscribers on the same size of bandwidth. Refarming
(rearrangement) plan for 2,100Mhz will still depend on
which telco operator win the tender. If the winner is
owner of block 10 (EXCL), then there is no need for
refarming. Spectrum’s beauty contest requirement is still
being discussed – whether to include non-existing opera-
tors (operators which does not own other existing blocks
in 2,100Mhz, i.e. FREN, Bolt (KBLV), and Sampoerna
Telekomunikasi Indonesia) or not. Source: Bisnis Indone-
sia, Kontan
Politics : Rizal Ramli said reshuffle would be hap-
pen this year
Contrast with Vice President Jusuf Kalla’s statement last
week, Maritime Affairs Minister Rizal Ramli said that
cabinet reshuffle part II would likely happen by end of
this year. Last week, Jusuf Kalla said cabinet reshuflle
would not be happen until end of this year because gov-
ernment focus on regional elections (Pilkada) which will
be held simultaneously across the country in December
and several important occasions abroad which should be
attended by Jokowi and JK. Source: Tempo
KPPU will focus on branded generics and licensed
drugs
This is related to the high price of branded generics and
licensed drugs in market as Government does not regulate
the prices. In FY14, pharmaceuticals in Indonesia recorded
Rp 52trn, expected to grow by 11.8% YoY in 2015F.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia ([email protected])
Indian firm to take RI to arbitration court
Indian Metals and Ferro Alloys Ltd (IMFA) has taken the
Indonesian government to the international arbitration
court for being unable to develop its mining areas due to
overlapping mining permits, a senior government figure has
said. IMFA reportedly demanded Rp7.7tn (US$600mn) for
being unable to operate in the areas, and has submitted its
appeal to Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. The
dispute emerge after IMFA purchased a mining operation
permit in Kalimantan, valued at US$8.7mn in 2010, only to
find out that several other permits have been issued by
other local administrators, which claimed that parts of the
mining area were located within their territories. Source:
The Jakarta Post
Kadin to arm up with China to develop ports in east-
ern areas
Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) is
cooperating with the Development Committee of China on
the construction of international standard seaports in Indo-
nesia’s eastern regions. According to Yogi Prayanto, Kadin
Deputy Chairman for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, MoUs
between Kadin and China’s Development Committee, be-
tween Indonesia’s Sorong Port and China’s North Bay Shat-
in Port has been signed. Yogi also mentioned that Kadin
was convinced that the funds from the state budget would
not be adequate to build infrastructure, so the private
sector should take the initiative in the development of ports
and shipyards. Source: The Jakarta Post
TRIO: in talks with creditors regarding loan restruc-
turing
The company is still in discussion with its lender to restruc-
ture its Rp6.4tn total bank loans, of which Rp2.1tn and
Rp1.9tn will be matured this year and next year respective-
ly. Further details are undisclosed yet except the standstill
and forbearances scheme proposal as well as business plan
disclosure to the creditors. TRIO also still has two bonds
payable amounting Rp1.15tn and Rp1tn maturing in 2016
and 2017 respectively. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 4
News of the Day
OECD cuts subsidy for steam power plants
Organization Economic Cooperation & Development
(OECD) decided to cut 85% financing for future coal
projects, as its emission causes Earth temperature to
increase. South Korea and Japan will be among the
countries to limit coal projects investment in the future.
This is negative for coal as demand might be cut further.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
Comment:
Negative for coal sector as lower demand will also result
in further price cut. Newcastle coal price is at US$53.75/
ton per yesterday closing, falls 14% YTD. This will in turn
be negative also for mining contractors (i.e. UNTR and
DOID) as it might result in volume and tariff cut. We
have accounted 5% decline in coal production tariff in
2015 and 2016 (flat afterwards), so we remain confident
DOID will be able to reach net revenue of US$593mn and
US$182mn EBITDA in 2016. DOID is currently trading at
2 . 9 / 2 . 4 x 2 0 1 6 - 1 7 E E V / E B I T D A
DOID: 10M15 volumes in-line with our estimates
DOID recorded a 3.1mt coal production and 24.0mbcm
overburden volume, making up 10M15 numbers to
27.9mt and 225.5mbcm respectively. Average strip ratio
in October 2015 was at 7.7x.
Comment:
This is in-line with our full-year estimates (85% and 84%
of our coal production and overburden volume estimates,
accordingly). ([email protected])
SMCB: Sold its Holcim Malaysia to Lafarge
At RMB330mn, or equivalent to Rp1.03tn. SMCB will sell
all its holding on Holcim Malaysia (HMSB), which will be
paid in USD. The transaction is effective as of 16 Novem-
ber 2015. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
Comment:
Given the selling of HMSB, this would provide SMCB with
additional funding to finance the acquisition of Semen
Andalas (Lafarge in Indonesia).
ACST: Sold 434m2 in Menteng on affiliated transac-
tion
To PT Cross Plus Indonesia and PT Loka Cipta Kreasi,
which own 12.27% and 5.83% of ACST, respectively. The
transaction is valued at Rp4.65bn, under rights to use
(HGB) certificate with total surface area of 434m2.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
SMRA: to benefit from proposed high speed train
And to be launched on the 21st of november 2015. Will
launch a total of 600 units for phase 1, and takes up 8Ha
(2.6% of total land). Initial marketing sales target set at
Rp500bn, with Rp300bn capex. Source: Kontan
ISAT: Ooredo to do affiliated transaction with ISAT
ISAT will will get exclusive right to use global assets owned
by Ooredo, e.g. sponsorhip assets, media marketing,
intellectual copyrights, and creative datas. According to
company’s disclosure, ISAT will pay license cost annually
based on following provisions:
1) the license cost will be paid annually calculated from
ISAT’s revenue in audited financial statement;
2) licensecost will only be paid if the company achieved
positive net profit (audited and annouced financial state-
ment) after accounting the license payment;
3) lichse cost will be paid based on certain percentage from
the company’s operational revenue which will not exceed
1.3% of the company’s operational revenue (cellular, fixed
line, fixed data (MIDI), and fiber; not include revenue from
Lintasarta and tower business). Source: Company, Inves-
tor Daily
Comment:
We are checking with the company on details but at least
the initial reaction would be negative. It is not clear how
much indosat can benefit from intl assets since we expect
growth to come from domestic. Assuming no benefit, the
impact to our 2016 profit is -35% lower (assuming 2016E
EBITDA margin down by 1.3% to 41.2%).
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 5
Table
Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)
Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield
Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold
Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days
5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield
CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)
-78 -82
-742
-297
-19
-497
-660
-145
-1,051
-479
-6
-550
(1,200)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
IND
ON
ESIA
PH
ILIP
PIN
ES
SO
UTH
KO
REA
TH
AIL
AN
D
VIE
TN
AM
IND
IA
(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
Nov-
14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-
15
Jun-
15
Jul-
15
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-
15
Nov-
15
(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)
Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
(USD
Bushels)(MYR Tons)
CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
(x)
Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 6
Table
INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)
Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector
TINS vs Tin price (LME)
ANTM vs Gold price
CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector
GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil
0
50
100
150
200
250
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
(USD/MT)
Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(MYR / Ton)
CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(USD /MT)(Rp)
INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(USD troy oz.)(Rp)ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)
-
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
24,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(USD/MT)(Rp) TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(USD bbl)(Rp)
GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 7
World Economic Calendar
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
11/10/2015 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Oct 96.5 96.1 96.1
US Import Price Index MoM (%) Oct -0.3 -0.1 -0.1
US Wholesale Inventories MoM (%) Sep 0.1 0.5 0.1
11/11/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications (%) 6-Nov -- -1.3 -0.8
11/12/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 7-Nov 270 276 276
US Continuing Claims ('000') 31-Oct 2165 2174 2163
US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 8-Nov -- 41.6 41.1
EC Industrial Production SA MoM Sep -0.1 -0.3 -0.5
EC Industrial Production WDA YoY Sep 1.3 1.7 0.9
11/13/2015 US Monthly Budget Statement (USDbn) Oct -132 -136.5 -121.7
US Retail Sales Advance MoM (%) Oct 0.3 0.1 0.1
US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (%) Oct 0.4 0.2 -0.3
US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (%) Oct 0.4 0.3 0.0
US PPI Final Demand MoM (%) Oct 0.2 -0.4 -0.5
US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Oct 0.1 -0.1 -0.3
US PPI Final Demand YoY (%) Oct -1.2 -1.6 -1.1
US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (%) Oct 0.5 0.1 0.8
US U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov P 91.5 93.1 90
EC Trade Balance SA (USDbn) Sep 19.3 20.1 19.8
EC Trade Balance NSA (USDbn) Sep 16 20.5 11.2
EC GDP SA QoQ (%) 3Q A 0.4 0.3 0.4
EC GDP SA YoY (%) 3Q A 1.7 1.6 1.5
11/16/2015 US Empire Manufacturing Nov -6.3 -10.74 -11.4
ID Trade Balance (USDmn) Oct 725 1019 1017
11/17/2015 ID Exports YoY (%) Oct -16.78 -20.98 -18.0
EC CPI MoM (%) Oct 0.1 0.1 0.2
EC CPI YoY (%) Oct F 0 0.1 0.0
EC CPI Core YoY (%) Oct F 1 1.1 1.0
11/17/2015 US CPI MoM (%) Oct 0.2 0.2 -0.2
US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Oct 0.2 0.2 0.2
US CPI YoY (%) Oct 0.1 0.2 0.0
US Industrial Production MoM (%) Oct 0.1 -0.2 -0.2
US Capacity Utilization Oct 77.5 77.5 77.5
ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate 17-Nov 7.5 7.5 7.5
ID Bank Indonesia Lending Facility Rate 17-Nov 8 8 8.0
11/18/2016 US Net Long-term TIC Flows (USDbn) Sep -- 33.6 20.4
US Total Net TIC Flows (%) Sep -- -175.1 -9.2
US MBA Mortgage Applications 13-Nov -- 6.2 -1.3
US Housing Starts ('000') Oct 1160 1060 1,206
US Building Permits ('000') Oct 1147 1150 1103
11/19/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 14-Nov 270 -- 276
US Continuing Claims ('000') 7-Nov 2170 -- 2174
US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 15-Nov -- -- 41.6
US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Nov -0.8 -- -4.5
US Leading Index Oct 0.5 -- -0.2
11/23/2015 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Oct -- -- -0.37
US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov P 54 -- 54.1
US Existing Home Sales (USDmn) Oct 5.4 -- 5.55
11/24/2015 US Advance Goods Trade Balance (USDbn) Oct -61.9 -- -58.6
US GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S 2 -- 1.5
US Personal Consumption 3Q S -- -- 3.2
US GDP Price Index 3Q S 1.2 -- 1.2
11/25/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 20-Nov -- -- --
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 8
Corporate Action
Code Price
Exercise Maturity Emiten Description
INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM
SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY
MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL
GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT
SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA
NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT
BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS
Warrant
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 9
Statistics
JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)
YTD (Rp) -13.95% 3,387
YTD (USD) 5.67% 4,443
Moving Avg 20day 4,534 4,748
Moving Avg 50day 4,446 12.9
Moving Avg 200day 4,936 2.8%
Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)
MSCI Indonesia 5,318.4 18.2 0.3 -14.2
JII 593.8 4.5 0.8 -14.1
LQ45 773.4 2.4 0.3 -13.9
JAKFIN Index 668.6 -1.7 -0.2 -8.6
JAKINFR Index 929.9 14.1 1.5 -19.9
JAKMINE Index 881.7 0.7 0.1 -35.6
JAKCONS Index 2,042.1 -13.1 -0.6 -6.2
JAKTRAD Index 811.8 -7.3 -0.9 -7.6
JAKMIND Index 1,102.3 5.1 0.5 -15.7
JAKBIND Index 402.8 4.9 1.2 -25.9
JAKPROP Index 473.1 -3.3 -0.7 -9.9
JAKAGRI Index 1,638.9 -11.6 -0.7 -30.3
Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)
CRB Index 183.6 -0.1 -0.06 -20.2
Oil & Gas
Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 44.1 0.6 1.31 -23.0
Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 40.8 0.1 0.20 -23.5
Natural Gas 2.3 -0.0 -1.01 -19.1
COAL (AUS Daily) 53.8 0.3 0.56 -13.3
Industrial Metals
Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,468.5 -2.0 -0.14 -19.9
Nickel (USD/tonne) 8,980 -125 -1.37 -40.7
Tin (USD/tonne) 14,600 -100 -0.68 -24.7
Precious Metal
Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,068.7 0.1 0.01 -9.7
Silver (USD/t oz.) 14.1 -0.1 -0.64 -9.7
Soft Commodities
CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,168 36.0 1.69 -5.4
Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,208 -0.2 -0.02 -26.4
Corn (USD/bu.) 362 -0.3 -0.07 -8.9
Wheat (USD/bu.) 483 -4.3 -0.87 -18.1
Soybeans (USD/bu.) 858 -6.3 -0.72 -15.8
Volume (m)
Value (Rpbn)
Mkt Cap (Rptr)
Market 2015 P/E (x)
Market Div. Yield (%)
CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)
Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)
USDEUR Euro 0.938 -0.001 -0.2 17.3
USDGBP UK 0.656 -0.001 -0.2 9.4
USDCHF Switzerland 1.020 0.005 0.5 2.0
USDCAD Canada 1.330 -0.002 -0.1 10.9
USDAUD Australia 1.406 0.000 0.0 17.2
USDNZD New Zealand 1.545 -0.001 -0.0 18.8
USDJPY Japan 123.64 0.190 0.2 3.2
USDCNY China 6.38 0.01 0.1 3.0
USDHKD Hongkong 7.750 -0.000 -0.0 -0.6
USDSGD Singapore 1.421 -0.003 -0.2 9.3
Rupiah Indonesia 13,819 73.0 0.5 11.6
Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)
MXWO MSCI Word 1,691.6 15.45 0.92 -1.06
SPX S&P 500 2,083.6 33.14 1.62 1.20
US
17,737.2 247.7 1.42 -0.48
Nasdaq US 5,075.2 89.19 1.79 7.16
Europe
EURO 50 Europe 379.3 -0.55 -0.14 10.75
FTSE London 6,279.0 10.21 0.16 -4.37
DAX Jerman 10,960.0 -11.1 -0.10 11.77
CAC France 4,906.7 -30.59 -0.62 14.84
SMI Swiss 8,991.0 38.38 0.43 0.08
BRIC
BOVESPA Brazil 47,435.6 188 0.40 -5.14
MICEX Russia 1,810.5 23.25 1.30 29.63
SENSEX India 25,482.5 -382.0 -1.48 -7.33
NIFTY India 7,731.8 -105.8 -1.35 -6.65
SHCOMP China 3,568.5 -36.33 -1.01 10.32
SZCOMP China 2,189.9 -41.30 -1.85 54.74
Nikkei Japan 19,649.2 18.5 0.09 12.60
TPX Japan 1,586.5 0.42 0.03 12.72
HSI Hong kong 22,188.3 -76 -0.34 -6.00
KOSPI S.Korea 1,962.9 -0.70 -0.04 2.47
TAIEX Taiwan 8,340.5 -79.0 -0.94 -10.39
FSSTI Singapore 2,886.1 -30.70 -1.05 -14.24
ASEAN
SET Thailand 1,376.8 -13.35 -0.96 -8.07
PCOMP Philipines 6,825.4 0.0 0.00 -5.60
KLCI Malaysia 1,656.5 -5.03 -0.30 -5.95
VNINDEX Vietnam 603.3 -1.71 -0.28 10.58
Developed ASIA
Dow Jones Industrial
-0.4
-2.3
-2.7
-2.8
-3.2
-4.1
-4.2
-5.3
-9.8
-10.0
BBCA
HMSP
LPPF
UNTR
GGRM
AKRA
CTRA
EXCL
SMMA
MAYA11.5
3.6
3.0
2.4
1.6
1.2
1.2
0.5
0.4
0.4
PGAS
SMGR
BDMN
INDF
INTP
TLKM
ICBP
BBRI
UNVR
ASII
281
239
190
150
134
107
106
103
96
91
- 100 200 300
BBRI
TLKM
PGAS
SMGR
ASII
BMRI
SSMS
GGRM
BBNI
BBCA
99
93
92
89
87
85
84
84
67
67
0 50 100 150
BIPI
PPRO
ANTM
ASRI
MYRX
BWPT
NIRO
TLKM
PGAS
TARA
9,089
5,472
5,330
4,828
4,808
4,705
4,691
4,551
4,453
4,216
PGAS
GSMF
ASII
SSMS
BWPT
UNTR
SMGR
TLKM
BBRI
GGRM
JCI 4,497.9 (3.0) -0.1%
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 10
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)
Ticker Last Technical Call 12-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,589 strengthened
4,612 0.48% Correct
PTPP 3,805 Buy
3,830 0.66% Correct
GGRM 43,425 Buy
43,700 0.63% Correct
SMRA 1,420 Buy
1,440 1.41% Correct
BBRI 10,550 Buy
10,675 1.18% Correct
BBTN 1,095 Buy
1,105 0.91% Correct
SRIL 392 Trd. Buy
397 1.28% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 9-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,589 strengthened
4,612 0.48% Correct
NIRO 128 Buy
130 1.56% Correct
DMAS 230 Buy
231 0.43% Correct
SMCB 1,100 Buy
1,105 0.45% Correct
ITMG 10,500 Buy
10,850 3.33% Correct
SRIL 392 Buy
397 1.28% Correct
PGAS 3,000 Sell
2,995 -0.17% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 8-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,487 strengthened
4,491 0.10% Correct
TLKM 2,740 Buy
2,710 -1.09% Incorrect
TBIG 6,400 Buy
6,450 0.78% Correct
PWON 397 Buy
390 -1.76% Incorrect
ASRI 398 Buy
377 -5.28% Incorrect
ASII 6,125 Sell
6,325 3.27% Incorrect
PGAS 2,950 Sell
2,890 -2.03% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 7-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,589 strengthened
4,612 0.48% Correct
TINS 710 Buy
730 2.82% Correct
INCO 2,310 Buy
2,410 4.33% Correct
BBNI 5,025 Sell
5,025 0.00% Incorrect
BBRI 10,550 Sell
10,675 1.18% Incorrect
PWON 416 Buy
420 0.96% Correct
SMGR 10,550 Buy
10,700 1.42% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 6-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,344 strengthened
4,446 2.35% Correct
AALI 20,325 Buy
20,000 -1.60% Incorrect
BMRI 8,200 Buy
8,900 8.54% Correct
PWON 367 Buy
383 4.36% Correct
BBNI 4,400 Buy
4,535 3.07% Correct
ITMG 10,000 Sell
10,175 1.75% Incorrect
SMGR 10,050 Spec Buy
10,075 0.25% Correct
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 11
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (2)
Ticker Last Technical Call 5-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,208 strengthened
4,344 3.23% Correct
ITMG 9,725 Spec Buy
10,000 2.83% Correct
PWON 339 Spec Buy
367 8.26% Correct
ANTM 481 Spec Buy
481 0.00% Correct
PTPP 3,585 Buy
3,700 3.21% Correct
GGRM 44,450 Buy
46,600 4.84% Correct
SSMS 1,730 Buy
1,795 3.76% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 2-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,255 Weakening
4,208 -1.11% Correct
PTPP 3,580 Buy
3,585 0.14% Correct
ASII 5,275 Buy
5,125 -2.84% Incorrect
AALI 19,300 Buy
19,100 -1.04% Incorrect
TINS 680 Buy
665 -2.21% Incorrect
INCO 2,545 Buy
2,480 -2.55% Incorrect
GGRM 43,300 Buy
44,450 2.66% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 1-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,224 strengthened
4,255 0.73% Correct
TLKM 2,645 Buy
2,630 -0.57% Incorrect
TBIG 6,550 Buy
6,500 -0.76% Incorrect
ROTI 1,175 Buy
1,180 0.43% Correct
UNVR 38,000 Buy
38,800 2.11% Correct
INCO 2,185 Trd. Buy
2,545 16.48% Correct
TINS 640 Trd. Buy
680 6.25% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 30-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,178 strengthened
4,224 1.09% Correct
PTPP 3,475 Buy
3,465 -0.29% Incorrect
BBNI 4,070 Buy
4,135 1.60% Correct
BBRI 8,350 Buy
8,650 3.59% Correct
ASII 5,300 Buy
5,225 -1.42% Incorrect
GGRM 42,750 Sell
42,000 -1.75% Correct
UNTR 16,900 Sell
17,475 3.40% Incorrect
Ticker Last Technical Call 29-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,121 Weakening
4,178 1.41% Incorrect
PTPP 3,410 Buy
3,475 1.91% Correct
ROTI 1,145 Buy
1,125 -1.75% Incorrect
TBIG 6,400 Buy
6,400 0.00% Correct
AKRA 5,875 Sell
5,950 1.28% Incorrect
BBTN 1,000 Sell
995 -0.50% Correct
LSIP 1,400 Sell
1,415 1.07% Incorrect
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 12
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (3)
Ticker Last Technical Call 28-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,209 Rebound
4,121 -2.11% Incorrect
TLKM 2,655 Buy
2,600 -2.07% Incorrect
PTPP 3,470 Buy
3,410 -1.73% Incorrect
BBNI 4,110 Buy
3,940 -4.14% Incorrect
BBRI 8,550 Buy
8,300 -2.92% Incorrect
ADRO 585 Buy
550 -5.98% Incorrect
AKRA 6,000 Sell
5,875 -2.08% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 25-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,244 Weakening
4,209 -0.82% Correct
ITMG 9,500 Buy
9,150 -3.68% Incorrect
TBIG 6,550 Buy
6,500 -0.76% Incorrect
LSIP 1,320 Buy
1,400 6.06% Correct
AALI 17,925 Buy
17,950 0.14% Correct
INCO 1,870 Buy
2,080 11.23% Correct
TINS 620 Buy
645 4.03% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 23-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,344 Weakening
4,244 -2.29% Correct
LSIP 1,260 Buy
1,320 4.76% Correct
ASII 5,800 Buy
5,500 -5.17% Incorrect
TBIG 6,800 Buy
6,550 -3.68% Incorrect
ADRO 595 Buy
580 -2.52% Incorrect
SRIL 373 Buy
377 1.07% Correct
BWPT 254 Sell
246 -3.15% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 22-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,376 Rebound
4,344 -0.73% Incorrect
TLKM 2,730 Buy
2,700 -1.10% Incorrect
AALI 18,100 Buy
17,900 -1.10% Incorrect
ASII 5,800 Buy
5,800 0.00% Correct
BBNI 4,330 Buy
4,300 -0.69% Incorrect
DILD 625 Buy
610 -2.40% Incorrect
ROTI 1,175 Buy
1,150 -2.13% Incorrect
Ticker Last Technical Call 21-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,380 Weakening
4,376 -0.10% Correct
ROTI 1,175 Buy
1,175 0.00% Correct
SCMA 2,780 Buy
2,800 0.72% Correct
GGRM 42,825 Buy
43,025 0.47% Correct
TLKM 2,690 Buy
2,730 1.49% Correct
EXCL 2,395 Sell
2,415 0.84% Correct
WTON 895 Sell
885 -1.12% Correct
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 13
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (4)
Ticker Last Technical Call 18-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,378 strengthened
4,380 0.04% Correct
BBNI 4,350 Buy
4,285 -1.49% Incorrect
SCMA 2,700 Buy
2,780 2.96% Correct
UNVR 39,100 Buy
39,100 0.00% Correct
TINS 640 Buy
620 -3.13% Incorrect
WIKA 2,725 Sell
2,710 -0.55% Correct
ROTI 1,180 Sell
1,175 -0.42% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 17-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,333 Rebound
4,378 1.06% Correct
UNTR 18,850 Buy
18,675 -0.93% Incorrect
TLKM 2,720 Buy
2,680 -1.47% Correct
BBNI 4,315 Buy
4,350 0.81% Incorrect
PWON 348 Buy
351 0.86% Incorrect
SMGR 9,700 Buy
9,700 0.00% Correct
ASII 5,900 Buy
5,925 0.42% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 16-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,347 Weakening
4,333 -0.34% Correct
AKRA 5,575 Buy
5,575 0.00% Correct
UNTR 18,200 Buy
18,850 3.57% Correct
BBNI 4,360 Buy
4,315 -1.03% Incorrect
BMRI 8,700 Buy
8,650 -0.57% Incorrect
WIKA 2,675 Sell
2,660 -0.56% Correct
MPPA 2,290 Sell
2,245 -1.97% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 15-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,390 Weakening
4,347 -0.98% Correct
BBNI 4,450 Buy
4,360 -2.02% Correct
BBCA 12,100 Buy
11,950 -1.24% Correct
AKRA 5,750 Buy
5,575 -3.04% Incorrect
SMRA 1,330 Buy
1,300 -2.26% Incorrect
INTP 19,975 Sell
19,300 -3.38% Correct
PGAS 2,665 Sell
2,620 -1.69% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 14-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,360 Rebond
4,390 0.69% Correct
LSIP 1,170 Buy
1,210 3.42% Correct
BWPT 275 Buy
275 0.00% Correct
KLBF 1,550 Buy
1,545 -0.32% Incorrect
AALI 18,000 Sell
18,125 0.69% Incorrect
ADRO 565 Spec. Buy
570 0.88% Correct
PGAS 2,685 Sell
2,665 -0.74% Correct
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 14
Research Team
Sebastian Tobing, CFA
Head of Research & Institutional Business
Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA
Technical Analyst
Paula Ruth
Equity Analyst
Angga Aditya Assaf
Equity Analyst
Willinoy Sitorus
Equity Analyst
M. Dian Octiana
Equity Analyst
Wisnu Budhiargo
Equity Analyst
Patricia Gabriela
Equity Analyst
Kevie Aditya
Equity Analyst
Jennifer Yapply
Equity Analyst
Dini Agmivia Anggraeni
Fixed Income/Macro Analyst
Yeni Simanjuntak
On-the-ground Analyst
Rovandi
Research Associate
Institutional Sales Team
Daniel Dwi Seputro
Head of Institutional Equity Sales
Dewi Yusnita
Equity Institutional Sales
Meitawati
Equity Institutional Sales
Fachruly Fiater
Equity Institutional Sales
Henry Sidarta
Equity Institutional Sales
Raditya Andyono
Equity Institutional Sales
Nancy Pardede
Equity Institutional Sales
Retail Sales Team
JAKARTA AREA
Nathanael Benny Prasetyo
Head of Retail ECM
Ariawan Anwar
Artha Graha, Jakarta
Windra Djulnaily
Pluit, Jakarta
Ferry Zabur
Kelapa Gading, Jakarta
Eddy Sumarli
Puri Kencana, Jakarta
Very Wijaya
BSD, Tangerang
SUMATERA
Juliana Effendy
Medan, Sumatera Utara
Tantie Rivi Watie
Pekanbaru, Riau
EAST INDONESIA
Sonny Muljadi
Surabaya, Jawa Timur
Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti
Denpasar, Bali
Ivan Jaka Perdana
Malang, Jawa Timur
Arifin Pribadi
Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan
CENTRAL JAVA, AREA
Agus Bambang Suseno
Solo, Jawa Tengah
Mariana Kusuma Wati
Semarang, Jawa Tengah
WEST JAVA
Asep Saepudin
Bandung, Jawa Barat
Ariffianto
Cirebon, Jawa Barat
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk
Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53
Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
t. +62-21 2924 9088
f. +62-21 2924 9150
www.trimegah.com
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