Undergraduate Persistence & 6yr Graduation Rates:
Fall 2003 through Fall 2010/Spring 2011
Persistence of All 1st Time Freshmen
1st Fall to Spring, and 1st Fall to 2nd
Persistence of First Time Freshmen
Campus FTF Cohort FTF_IRO CountFTF 1st Spring FA-->Spr FA->Spr% Fall 1-->Fall 2 FA to FA %
HIL Fall 2003 Y 443 Sp 2004 395 89.2% 278 62.8%
HIL Fall 2004 Y 440 Sp 2005 388 88.2% 305 69.3%
HIL Fall 2005 Y 444 Sp 2006 386 86.9% 287 64.6%
HIL Fall 2006 Y 471 Sp 2007 417 88.5% 306 65.0%
HIL Fall 2007 Y 512 Sp 2008 464 90.6% 349 68.2%
HIL Fall 2008 Y 552 Sp 2009 497 90.0% 378 68.5%
HIL Fall 2009 Y 471 Sp 2010 438 93.0% 333 70.7%
HIL Fall 2010 Y 403 Sp 2010 368 91.3%
Source: UHAPPS_IROFZ_IRO_BASE
Persistence of Classified Full-Time Freshmen
1st Fall to Spring, and 1st Fall to 2nd
Persistence of Classified Undergraduate Full-Time First Time Freshman
CampusFT FTF Cohort FTF_IRO CountFT 1st Spring FA-->Spr FA->Spr% Fall 1-->Fall 2 FA to FA %
HIL Fall 2003 Y 437 Sp 2004 392 89.7% 274 62.7%
HIL Fall 2004 Y 428 Sp 2005 380 88.8% 297 69.4%
HIL Fall 2005 Y 423 Sp 2006 374 88.4% 281 66.4%
HIL Fall 2006 Y 451 Sp 2007 406 90.0% 299 66.3%
HIL Fall 2007 Y 494 Sp 2008 448 90.7% 338 68.4%
HIL Fall 2008 Y 535 Sp 2009 487 91.0% 370 69.2%
HIL Fall 2009 Y 455 Sp 2010 425 93.4% 324 71.2%
HIL Fall 2010 Y 393 Sp 2010 359 91.3%
Source: UHAPPS_IROFZ_IRO_BASE
Persistence of All Classified Undergraduates
Fall to Fall, Fall 2006 and Fall 2007 Fall Sem # Class UG AcYr Grad 1stFR FR SO JR SR
2006 2,658 490 471 391 591 731 474
# Return Fall 2007 1,840 Overall returning 306 148 435 594 357
% Return Fall 2007 69.22% Overall 65.00% 37.9% 73.6% 81.3% 75.3%
Fall Sem # Class UG AcYr Grad 1stFR FR SO JR SR
2007 2,641 503 512 291 636 714 488
# Return Fall 2008 1,877 Overall returning 349 142 457 561 368
% Return Fall 2008 71.07% Overall 68.20% 48.8% 71.9% 78.6% 75.4%
Persistence of All Classified Undergraduates
Fall to Fall, Fall 2008 and Fall 2009 Fall Sem # Class UG AcYr Grad 1stFR FR SO JR SR
2008 2,710 498 552 260 647 753 498
# Return Fall 2009 1,956 Overall returning 378 140 492 607 339
% Return Fall 2009 72.17% Overall 68.50% 53.8% 76.0% 80.6% 68.1%
Fall Sem # Class UG AcYr Grad 1stFR FR SO JR SR
2009 2,857 460 471 282 683 857 564
# Return Fall 2010 2,069 Overall returning 333 142 509 685 400
% Return Fall 2010 72.41% Overall 70.70% 50.4% 74.5% 79.9% 70.9%
Persistence of All Classified Undergraduates
Fall to Fall, Fall 2010 ?
Fall Sem # Class UG AcYr Grad 1stFR FR SO JR SR
2010 2,858 493 403 265 660 907 623
# Return Fall 2011 ? ? ? ? ?
% Return Fall 2011 ? ? ? ? ?
The Flow of Classified Undergraduates Overall
Fall 2006
Fall 2007
Fall 2008
Fall 2009
Fall 2010
Class UG 3,148
Class UG 3,144
Class UG 3,208
Class UG 3,317
Class UG 3,351
Graduate 490 Graduate 503 Graduate 498 Graduate 460 Graduate 493
Return 1,840 Return 1,877 Return 1,956 Return 2,069 Return
Add New 1,304
Add New 1,331
Add New 1,361
Add New 1,282
Add New
Freshman 1st year Departers Last Semester and Cumulative GPA
Academic Standing
Six Year Graduation Rates of 1st Time Full Time Freshman
1995 by 2001
1996 by 2002
1997 by 2003
1998 by 2004
1999 by 2005
2000 by 2006
2001 by 2007
2002 by 2008
2003 by 2009
2004 by 2010
30.1% 31.5% 34.6% 30.2% 30.6% 31.5% 36.3% 32.4% 30.9% 33.3%
Leading Indicators Project Review & Discussion:
Looking at Milestone Attainment and Degree Completion
among the
Freshman Cohorts 2003, 2004, 2005
Educational Trust “Leading Indicators”
• Provides framework for investigating and understanding variable student graduation rate outcomes specifically with respect to those student’s attainment of specified milestones within the 1st academic year.
• The basic framework includes demographic breakouts by ethnicity, low-income status, and FT/PT status.
• 1st Academic Year Milestones include: 1. Completion of 80% or more attempted credit hrs with C or better.2. Completion of minimum 24 credit hrs3. Attempt College Level Math4. Complete College Level Math C or better5. Attempt English Composition6. Complete English Composition
Customizing the Leading Indicators Framework
• Localized ethnicity sub populations.• Ascertained pell status from any enrolled term, not just 1st Fall.• Ascertained student milestone attainment looking across all system
campuses and inclusive of summer semesters immediately prior and subsequent 1st Fall.
• Ascertained 6 yr degree completion looking separately for 4 yr degrees earned from Hilo campus, UH system, & outside UH system.
• Based on existing research/insights…Worked with 5 additional variables within the cohort:
gender, residency, any summer enrollment behaviors, any change of major behaviors (by change type direction & magnitude)
Key Findings: of 1,327 Freshmen, the percentage satisfying milestones
within their 1st academic year enrolled
74%
64%69%
59%
46%42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
80% of Attempted 24 cr AcYr Math Attempt
Math Complete ENG Attempt ENG Complete
Key Findings: Of those satisfying each milestone, the percent graduating within 6 years
58%62%
49%54% 56%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% of Attempted 24 cr AcYr Math Attempt
Math Complete ENG Attempt ENG Complete
Key Findings: Of those NOT satisfying each milestone,
the percent graduating within 6 years
11%
17%
39%
34%37%
35%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
80% of Attempted 24 cr AcYr Math Attempt
Math Complete ENG Attempt ENG Complete
Key Findings: Of those satisfying all milestones in the 1st year,
the percent graduating within 6 years
26.45%
65.52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Satisfy all Milestones Graduation Rate
Key Findings: Of those satisfying NO milestones in the 1st year,
the percent graduating within 6 years
7.98%
6.60%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Satisfy No Milestones Graduation Rate
Detailed Variability in Milestone Attainment
Sub Population Number % 80% 24cr MathAttMathComp ENGAtt
ENGComp
Under-represented Minority 400 30% 68% 59% 70% 58% 49% 42%
Non-”URM” 658 50% 81% 69% 71% 63% 48% 45%
Nuetral/Unknown* 269 20% 66% 60% 62% 52% 40% 36%
Sub Population Number % 80% 24cr MathAttMathComp ENGAtt
ENGComp
Pell 496 37% 73% 63% 64% 55% 48% 44%
Non-Pell 831 63% 75% 66% 72% 62% 45% 41%
More Detailed Variability in Milestone Attainment
Sub Population Number # 80% 24cr MathAttMathComp ENGAtt
ENGComp
Male 562 42% 70% 61% 69% 57% 45% 40%
Female 765 58% 77% 66% 69% 61% 47% 43%
Sub Population Number % 80% 24cr MathAttMathComp ENGAtt
ENGComp
Major Change by Directions 385 29% 85% 79% 75% 68% 55% 53%
MJR No Change 942 71% 70% 58% 67% 56% 43% 38%
Sub Population Number % 80% 24cr MathAttMathComp ENGAtt
ENGComp
Hawaii Resident 784 59% 73% 64% 71% 61% 52% 47%
Hawaii Non-Resident Regular 160 12% 74% 60% 66% 55% 34% 29%
Hawaii Non-Resident WUE 279 21% 83% 69% 66% 59% 51% 48%
Yet More Detailed Variability in Milestone Attainment
Sub Population Number % 80% 24cr MathAttMathComp ENGAtt
ENGComp
Summer Enrolled Yes 539 41% 85% 80% 78% 70% 52% 49%
Summer Enrolled No 788 59% 67% 54% 63% 52% 43% 38%
Overall Graduation Rates
Cohort TotalGraduatedElsewhere %Elsewhere
GraduatedManoa %Manoa
Graduated Hilo %Hilo
TotalGrads
Overall Grad Rate
Overall 1327 86 6.5% 73 5.5% 447 33.7% 606 45.7%
Detailed Variability in Graduation Rates
Cohort TotalElsewhere %Else Manoa %Manoa Hilo %Hilo
TotalGrads
Overall Grad Rate
Under-represented Minority 477 8 1.7% 13 2.7% 134 28.1% 155 32.5%
Non-”URM” 581 69 11.9% 34 5.9% 232 39.9% 335 57.7%
Neutral/Unknown 269 9 3.3% 26 9.7% 81 30.1% 116 43.1%
Cohort TotalElsewhere %Else Manoa %Manoa Hilo %Hilo
TotalGrads
Overall Grad Rate
Pell 496 18 3.6% 16 3.2% 176 35.5% 210 42.3%
Non-Pell 831 68 8.2% 57 6.9% 271 32.6% 396 47.7%
More Detailed Variability in Graduation Rates
Cohort Total Elsewhere %Else Manoa %Manoa Hilo %HiloTotalGrads
Overall Grad Rate
Male 562 38 6.8% 30 5.3% 171 30.4% 239 42.5%
Female 765 48 6.3% 43 5.6% 276 36.1% 367 48.0%
Cohort Total Elsewhere %Else Manoa %Manoa Hilo %HiloTotalGrads
Overall Grad Rate
Major Change by Directions 385 5 1.3% 8 2.1% 266 69.1% 279 72.5%
MJR No Change 942 81 8.6% 65 6.9% 181 19.2% 327 34.7%
Cohort Total Elsewhere %Else Manoa %Manoa Hilo %HiloTotalGrads
Overall Grad Rate
Hawaii Resident 784 18 2.3% 39 5.0% 282 36.0% 339 43.2%
Hawaii Non-Resident Regular 160 21 13.1% 6 3.8% 44 27.5% 71 44.4%
Hawaii Non-Resident WUE 279 44 15.8% 16 5.7% 91 32.6% 151 54.1%
Non-Resident Alien 104 3 2.9% 12 11.5% 30 28.8% 45 43.3%
Yet More Detailed Variability in Graduation Rates
Cohort Total Elsewhere %Else Manoa %Manoa Hilo %HiloTotalGrads
Overall Grad Rate
Summer Enrolled Yes 539 11 2.0% 66 12.2% 285 52.9% 362 67.2%
Summer Enrolled No 788 75 9.5% 7 0.9% 162 20.6% 244 31.0%
Interventions:Interpretations
• Since Leading Indicators milestone attainment correlates favorably with graduation,
• And The Education Trust’s intention is to increase degree attainment among Low Income students and under-represented minorities…
• Action plan is that encouraging “good behaviors” through focused institutional interventions can improve milestone attainment and degree completion for Low Income and under-represented minorities specifically.
• Such interventions in turn, benefit overall institutional milestone attainment and graduation rates.
Charting Progress: What’s next?
Freshman Cohort # FTF % Comp % Math
2003 443 51.00% 64.60%
2004 440 44.80% 69.50%
2005 444 43.50% 67.10%
2006 471 45.60% 59.90%
2007 512 46.30% 60.50%
2008 552 54.70%
2009 471 58.20%
2010 403 60.50%
*census registrations not satisfactory course completions
To Reframe the Challenge,How Might We:
• Reduce milestone attainment gaps between general (sub) population and Low Income and under-represented minority populations by half ?(A2S goal=Access to Success)
• Reduce degree attainment gaps between general (sub) population and Low Income and under-represented minority populations by half—institutional grad rates and/or overall ?(A2S goal=Access to Success)
When…
• Low Income Hilo grad rate is 1.8% higher than general population & Overall grad rate is 3.4% lower.Also, their Hilo grad rate is 2.9% higher than Non Pell, & 5.4% lower overall.
• Under-represented minority Hilo grad rate is 5.6% lower than general population & Overall grad rate is 13.2% lower.Also, their Hilo grad rate is 11.8% lower than Non “URM”, & 25.2% lower overall.
Follow Through…
• Identify those sub population milestone and degree attainment gaps that most warrant direct attention
• Identify further institutional intervention strategies
• Identify further research questions needed for effective action