UNWTO World Tourism Barometer May 2020Special focus on the Impact of COVID-19
EVOLUTIONOFTRAVEL
RESTRICTIONS
The impact of COVID-19 on international tourism
January-March 2020
+2 +6
-2
+0 +4 +6
-9
+6
-37
+3 +4 +5
-57 -60 -64
-46 -44 -41
-80
-60
-40
-20
+0
+20World Europe
Asia and thePacific Americas Africa Middle East
Jan. Feb. Mar.
World
Data is provisional
International tourist arrivals fell sharply in March 2020International tourist arrivals, Jan, Feb, March 2020 (% change)
Source:WorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO)
International tourist arrivals by region in Q1 2020
Source:WorldTourismOrganization(UNWTO)
The impact of COVID-19 on Tourism in Q1
67 million fewer international tourist arrivals
80 US$ billion lost in exports
100% destinations with travel restrictions
Looking Ahead
+2
-9
-57
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
(mon
thly
cha
nge,
%)
Actual data*Scenario 1:Scenario 2:Scenario 3: -78%
-70%-58%
Gradual opening of bordersand lifting of travel restrictions
in July in September
in December
Forward-looking scenarios depend on re-opening of bordersInternational tourist arrivals in 2020: three scenarios (YoY monthly change, %)
*ActualdatathroughMarchincludesestimatesforcountrieswhichhavenotyetreporteddata. Source:UNWTO
Note:thescenariospresentedinthisgrapharenotforecasts.Theyrepresentalternativemonthlychangeinarrivalsbasedonthegradualopeningofnationalbordersandliftingoftravelrestrictionsondifferentdates,stillsubjecttohighuncertainty.
Summary of Potential Impacts in 2020
850 million to 1.1 billion fewer international tourist arrivals
US$ 910 billion to US$ 1.2 trillion loss in export revenues from tourism
100 to 120 milliondirecttourismjobs at risk
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Cum
ulat
ive c
hang
e (m
illio
ns)
SARS
Sept. 11th attacks
Global econ. crisis
SARS11 months for recovery
Sept 11th attacks14 months for recovery
Global econ. crisis19 months for recovery
(Months after start of crisis)
The recovery of lost arrivals was the fastest after SARS (11 months)
ImpactofthreepreviouscrisesonworldarrivalsWorld - Cumulative change in international arrivals (million), by months
Month0forSept11thcrisis=Sept.2001;forSARS=March2003;forGlobaleconomiccrisis=Jan2009.
Source:UNWTO
144 mn 157 mn
463 mn 482
4% 5%
14%
54%
38% 39%
44%
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Accommodation and foodservices
Real estate; business andadministrative activities
Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade;repair of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
Levels of employment (mn) Share in global employment (%) Share of women (%)
Employment in accommodation and food services is at high risk, more than half workers are women
Workersinsectormostatrisk
Source:InternationalLabourOrganization
15%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Hong Kong (China)
Costa Rica
Estonia
New Zealand
Côte d'Ivoire
Malaysia
Greece
Sweden
France
Uruguay
Philippines
Jamaica
Croatia
Jordan
Tourism is a key sector in many advanced and emerging economies Share of Tourism GDP in total GDP (%)
Note:WhenTourismGDPisnotavailable,TourismGrossValueAdded(TGVA)orTourisminternalconsumptionisusedNote:CountrieswithavailableTourismGrossDomesticProductdatafor2015-2018(TourismGDPequalorabove5%oftotalGDP).WhenTourismGDPisnotavailable,TourismGrossValueAdded(TGVA)orTourisminternalconsumptionisused.
Source:CompiledbyUNWTO
Macao (China)JordanSpain
CroatiaMauritius
JamaicaMexico
PhilippinesIceland
UruguayPortugal
FranceThailandSweden
MoroccoGreece
HungaryMalaysia
AustriaCôte d’Ivoire
HondurasNew Zealand
BermudaEstonia
SloveniaCosta Rica
MozambiqueHong Kong (China)
Small Island Developing States are highly vulnerable Share of international tourism revenues as of total exports (%)
Source:UNWTO
Destinations with high share of domestic tourism are less exposed Guestsinhotelsandsimilarestablishments(THS),Domesticandinboundtourism(%oftotalguests)
Source:CompiledbyUNWTONote:Includesonlycountrieswithavailabledatafor2018orearlierandwithshareofdomesticguestsintotalhigherthan50%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Australia
Peru
Ukraine
Argentina
Sweden
Poland
Mexico
Norway
Saudi Arabia
United Kingdom
Mali
Zimbabwe
Denmark
Slovakia
Hungary
Netherlands
Domestic tourism - Guests in hotels and similar establishments Inbound tourism - Guests in hotels and similar establishments
Centr. African Rep.Netherlands
EcuadorHungary
ItalySlovakia
Korea (ROK)Denmark
IsraelZimbabwe
MalaysiaMali
ThailandUnited Kingdom
FranceSaudi Arabia
BoliviaNorway
Burkina FasoMexico
CameroonPoland
GermanySweden
RomaniaArgentina
Russian FederationUkraine
JapanPeru
IndonesiaAustralia
Key Considerations
• Pandemic
Howlongwillthepandemiclastandwhenwillatreatmentorvaccinebecomeavailable?
• Lifting of travel restrictions and lockdown measures
Whenwillcountriesstarteasingrestrictionsandhow?
Howwillsocialdistancingrulesimpactsupply?
• Consumer & Business confidence
Howlongitwilltakeconsumerstoreassumetravel?
How will travel behavior change?
• Economic impact
Howdeepandhowlongwilltheglobalrecessionbe?
Whatwillbeconsumers’discretionaryspendingdecisions?
• Governments Measures
Howdogovernmentmeasuressupporttourism?
Challenges & Opportunities
STRENGHTS
• Proven resilience of tourism in past crises• Domestictourismcanbeabuffer• Adaptationcapacity:safetyandhygieneprotocols,tripsclosertohome,
valueformoney,responsibleconsumerbehavior • Government support to the sector
OPPORTUNITIES
• Re-thinkbusinessmodel• Innovationanddigitalization• Sustainabilityandsustainable-orientedsegments(rural,nature,health)• De-escalationphasesinitiatedbyseveralcountriestowardthe‘new
normal‘• Progressinadaptationplansindestinations&companies
WEAKNESSES
• Segmentspotentiallyaffectedarealsohighspenders:international,longhaul,businesstravelandevents
• Majordisruptioninairlineindustrywithairlinefailuresandconcentration • Lackofreferencesinpreviousdownturns• Perceptionoftravelasarisk • Lowlevelsofdemandwhenrestartingtourismduetosocialdistancing
THREATS
• Economicenvironment:worldrecession,risingunemploymentandjobsatrisk,closureofbusinessmainlySMEs,disposableincome,uncertaintyweighingonconsumerandbusinessconfidence
• Uncertainlengthofpandemic(includingresurgence)andvaccineunavailability
• Extentoflockdownsandtravelrestrictions • Unknownformofthe‘newnormal
INTERNALFACTORS
EXTERNALFACTORS
POSITIVE NEGATIVE