UsingParticipatorySystemDynamicsModelingofAgricultural-EnvironmentalSystemsinaRuralDevelopmentContext
RobertB.Richardson&LauraSchmittOlabisiMichiganStateUniversity
InnovationsinCollaborativeModeling
June14,2016
§ Projectobjectives§ MajortrendsinZambia§ Participatorysystemdynamicsmodeling§ Results:modelsofdeforestation
§ National-andprovincial-levelbaseline§ Driversofdeforestation§ Scenarios
§ Maizeyieldincrease§ Policyscenarios
Acknowledgements:PhilipGrabowski,NaomiSakana,&KurtWaldman
Overview
§ World population to reach 9 billion by 2050 § Global need to increase food production 50-70% § Yet, agriculture is § largest emitter of greenhouse gases (~30-35% of total) § largest consumer of freshwater resources § largest user of land resources (~38% of total) § greatest contributor to biodiversity losses
Foley et al., 2011
GlobalContextforProject
§ AgriculturalintensiXication§ Increasefoodproduction§ Withoutincreasingdeforestation§ Limitingimpactstobiodiversity§ Adapting/mitigatingtheimpactsofclimatechange
§ SustainableintensiXication§ Whataretheimpactsandlinkagesonthelandscape?
GlobalContextforProject(continued)
§ Project:ImpactofSustainableIntensiXicationonLandscapesandLivelihoods(SILL)
§ Examinethepotentialforsustainableintensi+icationofagriculturetocontributetoforestconservationinZambia
§ Pilotsites:EasternandLusakaProvinces,Zambia§ Participatorysystemdynamicsmodelingactivitiesin2014-15
Acknowledgements:PhilipGrabowski,NaomiSakana,&KurtWaldman
ProjectObjectives
MajorTrendsinZambia § Relativelylowpopulationdensity§ Populationgrowth
§ Projectedtotripleby2050to43million,increase10xby2100
§ Highratesofurbanization§ Increasingdemandforfoodandenergy
§ Highratesofdeforestation§ 150,000-300,000ha/year§ Leadingcauseofgreenhousegasemissions
Implications § Foodsecurity–demandforfood§ Demandforcropland§ Conventionalwisdom:practiceofcultivatingmaizemonoculturedepletessoils
§ Farmersmigratetolandabundantareas§ Deforestationisdrivenbyclearinglandforagriculture
§ Degradedsoils§ Lownon-farmruralemployment
§ Dominantnarrative:deforestationismostlydrivenbysmallholderfarmersfacingweakyieldsindegradedsoilswhoabandontheirXieldsandclearnewland
§ Hypothesis:sustainableintensiXication(SI)practicesthatincreaseyieldsorproducefuelwoodwillreducedeforestationpressures§ Conservationagriculture:increasedyieldswillreduceneedforlandconversion
§ Agroforestry:on-farmfuelwoodproductionwillreducedemandforforestresources
AgriculturalPracticesandDeforestation
9
ParticipatorySystemsModeling § Participatorysystemdynamicsmodelingwasusedtoelicitstakeholderviewsofthesystemandhowitoperates,andtousethatinformationtoinformtheconstructionofthemodel.
§ Itcanbeausefultoolforidentifyingtheprimarydriversofchangeincomplexagro-ecologicalsystems.
§ Theapproachalsoallowsforexamininghypotheticaloralternativescenarios.
ParticipatoryModelingProcess§ Identifypartnersandstakeholders§ Introductoryworkshop(generatecausalloopdiagrams)§ Reviewliteratureanddatasets§ Buildnational-levelmodelofdeforestationinVensim®
§ Participatorymodelingworkshop(reXineparameters)§ Buildprovincial-levelmodel(EasternandLusakaProv.)§ Finalworkshopandreport
§ Totaltimeline:~15months(May2014–August2015)
§ IndabaAgriculturalPolicyResearchInstitute(IAPRI)
§ BioCarbonPartners§ COMACO§ CIFOR§ CIMMYT§ ICRAF§ ICRISAT§ IITA§ MichiganStateUniversity§ SouthLuangwaConservationSociety
Participants§ TheNatureConservancy§ TGCC/TetraTech§ TotalLandCare§ USAID§ UniversityofZambia§ WWF§ ZambiaAgricultureResearchInstitute
§ ZambiaCarnivoreResearch§ ZambiaForestryDepartment
total householdincome
farmincome
land instaple crops
-
+
land incash crops
+
householdfood supply
-
foodsecurity
+ +
-
economicsecurity
Economicsecurityfeedbackloop
CausalLoopDiagrams
Extensifica8onfeedbackloop
charcoaling
poaching
deforestation
wildlifepopulations
desiredagricultural
land
+
-
total householdincome
farmincome
land instaple crops
+
+
++
land incash crops
+
totalhousehold
land
+
+
+
householdsavings household
food supply
fuelwoodharvesting
Extensification
-
+
foodsecurity
economicsecurity
+
otherforest
income+
tourismincome
+
+
-
+
householdresillience
+ +
-
--
-
naturalresourceincome
+
+
-
-
charcoaling
poaching
deforestation
wildlifepopulations
desiredagricultural
land
+
-
total householdincome
demand fornatural resources
farmincome
land instaple crops
+
+
++
land incash crops
landin CA
land inagroforestry
labor supply
soilqualitycrop yields
-++
--
+
+
rainfallvariability
-
fertilizerusage
+
totalhousehold
land
+
+
+
householdenergysupply
householdsavings household
food supply
fuelwoodharvesting
manure
livestockpopulation
+
+
Extensification
-
soilerosion
+
land inconventional
ag
+
+
foodsecurity
economicsecurity
landmanagement
-
+
+
+land
degradation
+
-
+-
-
access to savingsand credit
distance to urbanmarkets
distance toforests
+
++
off farmwage labor
+
otherforest
income+
communitywoodlots
-
reforestationpolicy
-
tourismincome
+
improved seedvarieties
+
+-
alternative sourcesof energy
+
population
+
-
+
+
householdresillience
+ +
-
--
cropresidues
timberyield
+
energysecurity
-
-
-
urban demandfor resources
migration toforested areas
++
naturalresourceincome
+
deathrate
-
-
populationpressure
+
-+
Extension andfarmer knowledge
+
+
+
-
-
birth rate
+
+
+
-
Policyinterven8ons
ForestsinZambia§ Modeleddriversofdeforestation
§ IntegratedLandUseAssessment(FAO,2008)§ Twotypesofforestsrepresentedinmodel:
§ Deciduousandevergreenforests§ Miombowoodlands
§ Forestsresourcesusedwidelyformultiplepurposes§ Urbanhouseholdsdependoncharcoalforaffordablecookingfuel§ RuralhouseholdsdependonXirewoodforcookingfuel§ Ruralhouseholdsmayproduceandsellcharcoalasacopingstrategyduringperiodsofweakcropyields
DeforestationinZambia§ Sourcesofdeforestationrepresentedinmodel:
§ Clearinglandforagriculture§ Charcoalproduction§ Fuelwoodcollection§ Homeconstruction§ Commercialtimber
National-levelBaselineModel
14%loss18%loss
ForestCover
Deforestation by Driver40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
deforestation for agriculture : landscape_v5_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baselineforest clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
LandconversionCharcoalFuelwood
ConstructionComm.Timber
ha/year
NationalModel
Miombo Clearing by Driver80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
miombo clearing for ag : landscape_v5_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baselinemiombo clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
NationalModel
FuelwoodCharcoal
LandconversionComm.TimberConstruction
ha/year
1.23%lossratein2010 0.93%lossratein2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest300,000
225,000
150,000
75,000
02010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland600,000
450,000
300,000
150,000
02010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
LusakaProvinceBaseline
Deforestation by Driver30,000
22,500
15,000
7500
02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
deforestation for agriculture : lusaka_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : lusaka_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
LusakaProvinceModel
FuelwoodCharcoal
Landconversion ConstructionComm.Timber
Miombo Clearing by Driver40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
miombo clearing for ag : lusaka_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : lusaka_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baselineFuelwoodCharcoal
LandconversionComm.TimberConstruction
LusakaProvinceModel
EffectsofMaizeYieldIncrease
Maizeyieldsincreaseat3xtheircurrentrate-noeffectondeforestation.
Deciduous and evergreen forest300,000
150,000
02010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_yield
Miombo woodland600,000
300,000
02010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_yield
YieldincreaseBaseline Baseline
Yieldincrease
LUSAKAPROVINCE
EffectsofDrought
Adroughtaffecting70%ofagriculturalareaoccursevery40years,and40%ofareaevery8years.Farmersturntocharcoalproductionforincomeinyearsinwhichtheircropsare
affected.IffarmersengageinCA,theyarenotaffected.Noeffectondeforestation.
Deciduous and evergreen forest300,000
150,000
02010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_drought
Miombo woodland600,000
300,000
02010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_droughtDrought
BaselineDroughtBaseline
LUSAKAPROVINCE
EffectofFullElectriXication Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
02010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_electrification
Miombo woodland600,000
300,000
02010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_electrification
ElectriXicationBaseline
ElectriXicationBaseline
LUSAKAPROVINCE
EffectofFuel-EfXicientStoves Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
02010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland600,000
300,000
02010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_efficient_stoves
EfXicientstovesBaseline
EfXicientstovesBaseline
LUSAKAPROVINCE
EasternProvinceBaseline
0.74%lossratein2010 0.54%lossratein2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest2 M
1.75 M
1.5 M
1.25 M
1 M2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland3 M
2.75 M
2.5 M
2.25 M
2 M2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
EasternProvinceModel
FuelwoodCharcoal
Landconversion ConstructionComm.Timber
Deforestation by Driver20,000
15,000
10,000
5000
02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
deforestation for agriculture : eastern_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : eastern_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : eastern_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
FuelwoodCharcoal
LandconversionComm.TimberConstruction
EasternProvinceModel Miombo Clearing by Driver
30,000
22,450
14,900
7350
-2002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Y
ear
miombo clearing for ag : eastern_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : eastern_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : eastern_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline
EffectsofMaizeYieldIncrease
Maizeyieldsincreaseat3xtheircurrentrate-noeffectondeforestation.Yieldincrease
Baseline BaselineYieldincrease
Deciduous and evergreen forest2 M
1.5 M
1 M2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_yield
Miombo woodland3 M
2.5 M
2 M2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_yield
EASTERNPROVINCE
EffectsofDrought
Adroughtaffecting70%ofagriculturalareaoccursevery40years,and40%ofagriculturalareaevery8years.Farmersturntocharcoalproductionforincomeinyears
inwhichtheircropsareaffected.IffarmersengageinCA,theyarenotaffected.
DroughtBaseline
DroughtBaseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest2 M
1.5 M
1 M2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_drought
Miombo woodland3 M
2.5 M
2 M2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_drought
EASTERNPROVINCE
EffectofFullElectriXication
ElectriXicationBaseline
ElectriXicationBaseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest2 M
1.5 M
1 M2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_electrification
Miombo woodland3 M
2.5 M
2 M2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_electrification
EASTERNPROVINCE
EffectofFuel-EfXicientStoves
EfXicientstovesBaseline
EfXicientstovesBaseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest2 M
1.5 M
1 M2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland3 M
2.5 M
2 M2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_efficient_stoves
EASTERNPROVINCE
Conclusions• Charcoalproductionandclearingforagriculturearebothimportantdriversofdeforestation
• CharcoalcurrentlydominatesinLusaka• ClearingforagriculturecurrentlydominatesinEastern• Charcoalexpectedtodominateinbothprovincesinthefuture
• Clearinglandforagricultureisdrivenbyruralpopulationgrowth,notlowyieldsorlandabandonment
• Charcoalproductionisdrivenbyurbanpopulationgrowthandenergydemand
• Participatorysystemdynamicsmodelingcanbeausefultoolforidentifyingtheprimarydriversofchangeincomplexagro-ecologicalsystems
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