Prepared by the North Dakota Kids Count Sept. 2010 1
Using the American Community Surveyfor Children’s Research
Dr. Richard RathgePolicy Analyst
North Dakota Kids Count
Kids Count Annual Meeting
Baltimore, Md
Sept. 24, 2010
Presentation Objectives:
1. Highlight some key challenges of using ACS for children’s research
2. Illustrate the need for a conceptual shift in the way we approach children’s research when using ACS data
3. Initiate dialogue of implications for research and policy
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Key Challenges for children’s research
Effects of longer period estimates Consequences of smaller sample
size Rule changes and their impact on
trend analyses
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Period Estimates … ACS vs. Census
Census (conceptually point in time April 1st)
ACS accumulates 12 months (1-year estimate) 36 months (3-year estimate) 60 months (5-year estimate)
Think of shutter speed on camera
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Nebraska ACS Data
Thanks to Jerry Deichert for data
Omaha city was an ACS test sites: 1997-2004 Can examine 1, 3, 5-year data
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Key Challenges for rural areas
Effects of longer period estimates Consequences of smaller
sample size Rule changes and their impact on
trend analyses
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ACS sample size is smaller than Census
One-year sample is 2.5 % of HHs vs 16.7% for Census long form Over five-year period, ACS sample size
is 12.5 percent
Therefore ACS sampling error will be larger
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Cass County, North Dakota (population 132,585)
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People Moving to North Dakota Within the Past Year by State of Origin: 2006 ACS
-500
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500
1000
1500
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Cal
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Col
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Ariz
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Mic
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Texa
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Okl
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Pen
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Was
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Tenn
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Mis
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Flor
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New
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Neb
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Virg
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Idah
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Wis
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Mis
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Wyo
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Ore
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Ohi
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Geo
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Illin
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New
Mex
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Ken
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Ala
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Nev
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Haw
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Ala
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Mas
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Mar
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Con
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State of Origin
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Comparison of 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year Estimates of the Percentage of Persons in Poverty for Omaha, NE: 1999-2005 ACS
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Single-year estimate 11.4 12.0 11.0 12.3 13.5 13.9 15.3
Single-year MOE 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5
Three-year estimate 11.4 11.7 12.1 13.2 14.2
Three-year MOE 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
Five-year estimate 11.9 12.5 13.2
Five-year MOE 0.5 0.5 0.6
Suppression Issues
ACS using suppression similar to the 1970 and 1980 decennial census
Applied to base tables in 1 and 3-year data
Use “data release rules” to protect user from tables “whose reliability is unacceptable”
Suppresses entire table not just unreliable cells
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41 cells which willcause suppressionfor smaller counties
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Key Challenges for rural areas
Effects of longer period estimates Consequences of smaller sample
size Rule changes and their impact
on trend analyses
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ACS income not compatible with decennial census data
Decennial census asks income in previous calendar year
ACS asks income in previous 12 months Both are inflation adjusted However, Bureau test results show decennial
income consistently lower than ACS (4.4% nationwide)
Bureau suggests users “exercise caution”
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Residency rules very different
Decennial census- “usual place of residence “using 6+ month” rule.
ACS – current residence during the last 2-months. Attempting to better count seasonal
residents
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What lessons have we learned thus far?
Need to be more mindful of our data users
Rethink how we interpret and disseminate data to the public
Examine ways in which we can better educate ourselves and data user
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ACS Presentation 2010
Dr. Richard Rathge, Policy Analyst North Dakota Kids Count, Fargo, ND
NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58108 [email protected] Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-
9730 URL: www.ndkidscount.org
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