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GRGAQS:Meteorological Modeling
Presentation to the
SWCAA
By
ENVIRON International Corporation
Alpine Geophysis, LLC
August 8, 2006
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Today’s Presentation
• Further evaluation of MM5 performance
• Analyses conducted for August and November modeling episodes:– 4-km surface wind fields in Gorge area– Cloud cover and fog on 4-km grid
• Compare to satellite and Wishram camera
– Wind, temperature, RH at Wishram
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Wind Performance, August 2004
• Hi bscat 8/10-8/16, 8/19
• Poor performance at central sites 8/10-8/13– Wind opposite direction
• Good performance 8/14-8/22– Maybe too light on some days
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Wind Performance, November 2004
• Hi bscat 11/8-11/13• Overall better performance than for
August episode• Very good performance over 11/8-
11/13– Some stagnation leads to wind direction
errors– Some windy periods are too light
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Cloud Cover
• August 2004 notes at Wishram camera:8/10 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/11 No clouds, No layered haze8/12 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/13 No clouds, No layered haze8/14 (high) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/15 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/16 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/17 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/18 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/19 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze8/20 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/21 (high) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze8/22 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze
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Wishram Camera
August 13, noon Pristine
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Wishram Camera
August 14, noon Pristine
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Wishram Camera
August 19, noon Pristine
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August 2004 Cloud Cover
• Performance appears adequate– MM5 cannot replicate high thin/wispy
cirrus– MM5 usually underperforms for scattered
small-scale afternoon cumulus– These should not play significant role in
regional PM chemistry
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Cloud Cover
• November 2004 notes at Wishram camera:11/3 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze11/4 No clouds, Ground-based layered haze only11/5 (high thin) Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze (hazy)11/6 Scattered clouds < half of sky, Ground-based layered haze only11/7 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze (hazy)11/8 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/9 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/10 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (fog)11/11 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/12 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (fog)11/13 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (thick haze)11/14 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene (distant fog)11/15 Overcast > half of sky, Weather concealing scene11/16 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze11/17 Scattered clouds < half of sky, No layered haze11/18 Overcast > half of sky, No layered haze
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Wishram Camera
November 6, noon Pristine
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Wishram Camera
November 8, noon Pristine
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Wishram Camera
November 10, noon Pristine
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Wishram Camera
November 15, noon Pristine
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November 2004 Cloud Cover
• Large-scale higher clouds appear well simulated
• Low-level cloud/fog events are not– Especially on the high bscat days
– This will impact aqueous PM chemistry
– This would impact bscat reconstruction
• If we use MM5-predicted humidity
• EPA method: use measured humidity
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Speed at Wishram: August 10-22
0
5
10
15
20
25
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
m/s
Predicted Observed
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Direction at Wishram: August 10-22
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
Deg
Predicted Observed
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Wishram MeteorologyTemperature at Wishram: August 10-22
290
295
300
305
310
315
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
K
Predicted Observed
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Wishram Meteorology%RH at Wishram: August 10-22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22
%R
H
Predicted Observed
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August 2004 Meteorology
• Wind speed/direction well simulated– Terrain channeling may be leading to
higher observed speeds and direction bias
• Temperatures on 4-km grid are highly suspect– RH performance follows poor
temperature performance– Need to investigate further
• Could use in some initial PM modeling
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Speed at Wishram: November 3-18
0
3
6
9
12
15
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
m/s
Predicted Observed
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Wishram MeteorologyWind Direction at Wishram: November 3-18
0
60
120
180
240
300
360
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
Deg
Predicted Observed
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Wishram MeteorologyTemperature at Wishram: November 3-18
270
272
274
276
278
280
282
284
286
288
290
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
K
Predicted Observed
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Wishram Meteorology%RH at Wishram: November 3-18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
11/3 11/4 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/17 11/18
%R
H
Predicted Observed
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November 2004 Meteorology
• Wind speed/direction performance appears acceptable
• Temperature performance is poor– Need to investigate cause
• RH is too low – no fog – not associated with temperature problem
• This episode is currently not useable