Viability of Moroccan agriculture in the context of climate change and the challenge of food security
Abdellatif KHATTABI Ecole Nationale Forestière d’Ingénieurs,
Salé, Morocco
Email: [email protected]
Top 10 risks in terms of Likelihood
Top 10 risks in terms of Impact
1. Interstate conflict 2. Extreme weather events 3. Failure of national governance 4. State collapse or crisis 5. Unemployment or underemployment 6. Natural catastrophes 7. Failure of climate-change adaptation 8. Water crises 9. Data fraud or theft 10. Cyber attacks
1. Water crises 2. Spread of infectious diseases 3. Weapons of mass destruction 4. Interstate conflict 5. Failure of climate-change adaptation 6. Energy price shock 7. Critical information infrastructure breakdown 8. Fiscal crises 9. Unemployment or underemployment 10. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
Global Risks
(WEF, 2015) Ample scientific evidence that extreme events are becoming more frequent and severe, worldwide (IPCC, 2015)
Global Water scarcity
Source: Mekonnen & Hoekstra, Univ. Twente, Feb 2016
2/3 of the global population live under conditions of severe water scarcity at least 1 month of the year ½ billion people in the world face severe water scarcity all year round.
Changes in precipitation
“Water is a precious resource, crucial to realizing the SDGs, which at their heart aim to eradicate poverty”
Ban Ki-moon,
UN Secretary General
Economic Importance of agriculture in Africa
Agriculture in Africa:
Employs 65 percent of the labor force
Accounts for 32 percent of gross domestic product
Agriculture Value Added as a Percentage of GDP in 2014
Nutrient and soil organic matter depletion and
soil erosion worsen the effects of climate
change and decrease farmer resilience.
(World Bank Data Portal)
Climate challenges faced by African Agriculture
IPCC, 2014
Africa has experienced during the last century an unprecedented deficit of rainfall particularly in the Sahel region; increases in temperature and changes in rainfall pattern & extremes. These changes in temperature and rainfall have affected negatively crop yields,
exacerbating food insecurity.
Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity in Africa
Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, Wheeler 2011
Agricultural productivity will come under pressure from Climate Change, with large parts of Africa expected to experience downward yield pressure of above 15%
Hunger declining –but Africa lags
0 10 20 30 40
World
Africa
AsiaPacific
LAC
2012-14 1990-92
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Source: FAO 2015
1,5 million farms, of which 70% are of small size (less than 2.1ha), and 81% non irrigated 77% of micro / small farms are located in areas with limited potential
Context of agriculture in Morocco
748
582
449
360
306 273
246 228 217 210
142 110
85 68 58 52 47 43 41 40
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Irrigated agricultural land
Hecta
res o
f la
nd p
er
1000 p
ers
ons
Total agricultural land
Agricultural area: 8,7 Mha
Production lines of Moroccan agriculture
20-35%
5-10%
70-80 Md DH
45-50%
60-70%
3-4 Mio jobs
35-40%
10-15%
Employment Turnover
Fresh 50-55%
13 Md DH
Processed 45-50%
Export
Vegetal production with high value
Cereals and fodder
25%
7,4 Mio Ha
75%
SAU
Livestock
Dominance of:
• Cereals by area covered;
• high value crops production for exports; and
• livestock for employment
10
Food security and agriculture
The requested contribution of agriculture has shifted from the concept of self-sufficiency to the concept of food security. Food security in Morocco is mainly based on rainfed agriculture, which dominates (83%) the cultivated area. Agriculture is increasingly facing new demands on health safety. This agriculture is sensitive to the vagaries of climate variability and change.
Challenges: • Climate change • Water scarcity • Population growth • Land and biodiversity degradation
Source: DRPE
Projected changes of temperature (oC) and of rainfall (%) with respect to the reference period (1961-1990), for the present period (1990-2020), middle of
century (2040 – 2069) and end of century (2070 – 2099).
Climate in Morocco
A: Corn and vegetables in irrigated lands
B: Vegetables and fruit trees in irrigated lands
C: Fodder
D: rain fed Cereals and legume crops
E: Rain fed wheat and barley
F: Other non irrigated crops
Impacts of climate change on the productivity of agriculture
Irrigated
Rainfed
Irrigated Agricultural GDP: highly dependent on climate. Irrigated agriculture: sensitive through its dependence on water resources. Animal production: linked to crop production in pasture land, which is highly dependent on climate; The sensitivity of the yield of certain crops, such as arboriculture, to temperature and more precisely to the availability of cold hours. The sensitivity of the cycles of some crop pests, common in Morocco, to climatic variations.
a. Comprehensive climate risk management
b. Sustainable land and soil management
c. Improving sustainably agriculture productivity and production
d. Improving irrigation systems and efficiency
e. Improving water governance and integrated management (supply/demand)
f. Decreasing food losses and waste
g. Identification of financial mechanisms and means
h. Building Capacity building, and better communicating/coordinating
i. Enhancing investment in agricultural research + technological change
j. Supporting the nexus approach on food, water and energy
Possible ways for sustainability
Opportunities
2030 Agenda Integrated approaches (Nexus) Paris Agreement on Climate change Financial resources Innovation Plan Maroc Vert Triple A initiative for Africa
Tools National and local capacity building Transformational projects Joint action and collaborative efforts South – South cooperation (Africa)
Opportunities and tools
Measures of adaptation
Reinforce farmers own adaptation strategies (ADAPTATION is vital to manage risk and will bring Immediate benefits in the face of climate change)
Technology of water saving
Genetic technology Parallel measures
Modification of agricultural
practices Measures of
adaptation
Initiative for the
Adaptation of the African Agriculture
to Climate Change
("AAA")
INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY + REDUCE
VULNERABILITIES + IMPROVE RESILIENCE +
MANAGE NATURAL RESOURCES MORE
SUSTAINABLY
"AAA” Initiative is the drive to enhance the Adaptation of African Agriculture
I
A stronger collective voice for the adaptation of African
agriculture to climate change
Increased funding
I.1
Simplified access to climate funds
I.3
Climate funds monitoring
I.2
Advocacy Solutions Contribute to the Global
Climate Action Agenda and support "AAA" projects
II
Agricultural Water management
II.2
Climate risk management
II.3
Financing solutions
II.4
Soils management
II.1
Leverage the Instruments recommended by the UNFCCC
Technology transfers Capacity building South-South cooperation
"AAA"