WFO Expectations of WoF:Benefits and ChallengesDavid L. Andra, Jr.Meteorologist In ChargeWFO Norman, Oklahoma
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Overview•The WFOs•The evolving mission of the WFOs•Potential benefits
▫Analyses▫Forecasts
•Challenges•Conclusions
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
“My perspective…does not necessarily reflect views of
colleagues or employer”
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
The WFOs
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
The WFOs•“Are in the community”•Services directed toward local needs•Various staffing levels•Various levels of expertise•Very diverse
▫Urban vs. rural, coastal vs. inland, etc.▫“Progressive” versus “Traditional”▫Variations in management philosophy
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
The evolving mission•Schedule driven•ASCII text only•Basic weather forecasts, warnings•Manually intensive
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
The evolving mission•1990s – early 2000s•Data sets integrated into workstations•More data•Services diversifying
▫Internet arrives•Discussions of “Decision Support Services-DSS”
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
April 19, 1995
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
The evolving mission•Today•Services more
diversified•Much more data•Internet primary direct conduit to users•DSS services rapidly
growing•Need for better
guidance at all scales
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Emerging themes•Shrinking scales in space and time•Must be adaptable to diverse users•Must be agile•Must manage our data•Forecaster over the loop•Spectrum of services
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
WoF Potential Benefits•Analyses
▫Help manage vast data sets▫Provide common starting
point▫A bridge from warn on
detection
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
WoF Potential Benefits•Analyses and Forecasts
▫Offer possibility to provide calibrated hazard services
▫Gridded multi-variable fields allow tailoring to diverse needs, thresholds of users
▫Expand potential lead time for customers that need it
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
WoF Potential Benefits•Forecasts
▫More hazards forecast▫More specific locations▫More specific times for onset and ending▫Means to express confidence▫Could provide scientific foundation for
services
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
WoF Potential Benefits•WoF in general
▫Can help support NWS DSS vision▫Can provide a basis for future WFO
warning operations▫Therefore help define a meaningful role
for the next generation of forecasters
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Challenges•Practical barriers
▫“First, do no harm”▫Changing the culture▫Future NWS conops unknown▫Fiscal realities of early 21st century
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Challenges•Capturing customer needs•Meeting customer needs•We tend to buy systems
▫Less consideration of “soft” aspects of change
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Challenges•Training
▫Should be thorough and rigorous Meso, storm scale NWP, communications
skills▫Must include all forecasters▫The first to go in an austere fiscal climate
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Challenges•We don’t understand breadth and depth of
our users’ needs▫Basic social science work remains▫Most users don’t understand even today’s
service capability
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Conclusions•We envision:
▫An evolution of capability and services▫The means to get our arms around data
volume▫More specific information in space and
time▫More frequent updates to message▫Likely gridded and probabilistic in nature▫Capable of supporting diverse delivery
methods▫Easily tailored for customers and private
sector
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Conclusions•We envision:
▫Capability to forecast more hazards▫An opportunity to bring increased
reliability and uniformity to services▫An opportunity for meteorologists to evolve
into a role consistent with changes in technology and NWP
WoF Workshop Workshop 2013
Questions ???