DHS
September 13, 2016
Madison, WI
Workforce Considerations in the New Economy
Dennis K. Winters Chief Economist
Department of Workforce Development
9.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1949 1954 1958 1960 1970 1975 1980 1982 1991 2001 2009
Real GDP Growth Sixteen Quarters into Recovery
2 2
How the Economy has Changed - Economic Recovery
Chart1
1949
1954
1958
1960
1970
1975
1980
1982
1991
2001
2009
16-month Growth
Real GDP Growth Sixteen Quarters into Recovery
0.2669396315
0.1259502692
0.2084424201
0.2268061331
0.1376517358
0.2155219702
0.1587358846
0.2227498381
0.1377355721
0.1311903787
0.0922274307
Sheet0
Gross domestic product
1q 19471932.6
2q 19471930.4
3q 19471928.4
4q 19471958.8
1q 19481987.6
2q 19482019.9
3q 19482031.2
4q 19482033.3
1q 19492005.6
2q 19491998.8
3q 19492020.816-month Growth
4q 19492002.7194926.7%
1q 19502082.5195412.6%
2q 19502145.5195820.8%
3q 19502228.2196022.7%
4q 19502271.2197013.8%
1q 19512302.3197521.6%
2q 19512342.3198015.9%
3q 19512390.5198222.3%
4q 19512395.8199113.8%
1q 19522421.1200113.1%
2q 19522426.220099.22%
3q 19522443.7
4q 19522523.9
1q 19532570.9
2q 19532591
3q 19532576.4
4q 19532537.326.7%
1q 19542525.6
2q 19542528.3
3q 19542556.9
4q 19542606.8
1q 19552681.2
2q 19552724.8
3q 19552761.5
4q 19552778.1
1q 19562767.4
2q 19562790.2
3q 19562787.9
4q 19562833.5
1q 19572851.8
2q 19572845.5
3q 19572873.2
4q 19572843.712.6%
1q 195827709.7%
2q 19582788.3
3q 19582852.7
4q 19582919.5
1q 19592973.8
2q 19593046.1
3q 19593040.2
4q 19593052.2
1q 19603120.2
2q 19603108.4
3q 19603116.1
4q 19603078.4
1q 19613099.3
2q 19613156.9
3q 19613209.6
4q 19613274.6
1q 19623333.6
2q 19623369.520.8%
3q 19623401.6
4q 19623414.8
1q 19633452.8
2q 19633497.8
3q 19633566.1
4q 19633591.5
1q 19643669.2
2q 19643712.9
3q 19643763.3
4q 19643776.622.7%
1q 19653869.8
2q 19653922.7
3q 19654002.4
4q 19654096.7
1q 19664197.9
2q 19664215.1
3q 19664245.2
4q 19664281.6
1q 19674320.9
2q 19674324.7
3q 19674362
4q 19674397.1
1q 19684486.4
2q 19684562.2
3q 19684595
4q 19684615.4
1q 19694687.1
2q 19694702.1
3q 19694731.5
4q 19694711
1q 19704702.8
2q 19704711.1
3q 19704752.8
4q 19704703.9
1q 19714829.9
2q 19714857.4
3q 19714895.3
4q 19714909.5
1q 19724997
2q 19725112.7
3q 19725159.8
4q 19725245.5
1q 19735374.7
2q 19735435.6
3q 19735406.1
4q 19735456.5
1q 19745411.2
2q 19745425.4
3q 19745372.8
4q 19745351.413.8%
1q 19755286.7
2q 19755327.4
3q 19755415.5
4q 19755488.5
1q 19765612.4
2q 19765654.8
3q 19765683.6
4q 19765726.2
1q 19775792.9
2q 19775906.6
3q 19776011.1
4q 19776011.7
1q 19786032.6
2q 19786267.2
3q 19786328.5
4q 19786413.3
1q 19796426.121.6%
2q 19796433.9
3q 19796480.1
4q 19796496.8
1q 19806517.9
2q 19806385.7
3q 19806376
4q 19806494.1
1q 19816628.6
2q 19816580.2
3q 19816655.7
4q 19816578
1q 19826468
2q 19826503.3
3q 19826479.8
4q 19826486.2
1q 19836571.1
2q 19836721.1
3q 19836852.7
4q 19836994
1q 19847132.9
2q 19847258.2
3q 19847329.6
4q 19847388.115.9%
1q 19857461.5
2q 19857529.9
3q 19857647
4q 19857704.4
1q 19867775.8
2q 19867811.5
3q 19867890.1
4q 1986793122.3%
1q 19877986.4
2q 19878076.1
3q 19878149.4
4q 19878283.8
1q 19888330.4
2q 19888440.5
3q 19888489.2
4q 19888601.6
1q 19898688.4
2q 19898756.7
3q 19898822.1
4q 19898840.7
1q 19908937.5
2q 19908972.1
3q 19908974.3
4q 19908897.8
1q 19918856.1
2q 19918924.9
3q 19918967.7
4q 19919006.8
1q 19929113.2
2q 19929213.7
3q 19929303.3
4q 19929396.5
1q 19939414
2q 19939469.9
3q 19939516.1
4q 19939643.1
1q 19949737.6
2q 19949870.7
3q 19949928.9
4q 199410041.6
1q 199510075.913.8%
2q 199510111.1
3q 199510197.7
4q 199510270.1
1q 199610337.4
2q 199610517.9
3q 199610615.2
4q 199610727.4
1q 199710809.1
2q 199710972.2
3q 199711112
4q 199711198.2
1q 199811309
2q 199811418.7
3q 199811568.1
4q 199811757.9
1q 199911867.8
2q 199911967.7
3q 199912120.1
4q 199912329.8
1q 200012365.2
2q 200012598.7
3q 200012614.8
4q 200012682
1q 200112645.7
2q 200112712.8
3q 200112674.1
4q 200112705.2
1q 200212824.6
2q 200212894.7
3q 200212956.7
4q 200212962.9
1q 200313028.6
2q 200313151.8
3q 200313374
4q 200313525.7
1q 200413606.6
2q 200413710.7
3q 200413831
4q 200413947.7
1q 200514100.2
2q 200514177.2
3q 200514292.9
4q 20051437213.1%
1q 200614546.4
2q 200614591.6
3q 200614604.4
4q 200614718.4
1q 200714728.1
2q 200714841.5
3q 200714941.5
4q 200714996.1
1q 200814895.4
2q 200814969.2
3q 200814895.1
4q 200814574.6
1q 200914372.1
2q 200914356.9
3q 200914402.516
4q 200914540.2
1q 201014597.7
2q 201014738
3q 201014839.3
4q 201014942.4
1q 201114894
2q 201115011.3
3q 201115062.1
4q 201115242.1
1q 201215381.6
2q 201215427.7
3q 201215534
4q 201215539.6
1q 201315583.9
2q 2013156819.22%
3q 2013
4q 2013
Sheet0
16-month Growth
16-month into Recovery Growth
Sheet1
Table 1.1.6. Real Gross Domestic Product, Chained Dollars
[Billions of chained (2009) dollars] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Last Revised on: August 29, 2013 - Next Release Date September 26, 2013
Note: Data appear on more than one sheet.
Line 2010201120122013
IIIIVIIIIIIIVIIIIIIIVIII
1Gross domestic product14839.314942.41489415011.315062.115242.115381.615427.71553415539.615583.915681
2Personal consumption expenditures10063.71016910221.310258.910311.910373.110447.810496.81054110584.81064410690.6
3Goods3319.13380.53402.83404.63415.234573495.83514.73546.73579.23611.93640.1
4Durable goods1093.81127.41142.311401154.41191.71219.71228.61253.41285.21303.51322.9
5Nondurable goods22262254.52262.62266.52263.822712283.62293.923032306.72322.22332.4
6Services6744.66788.56818.26854.16896.66915.56951.26981.46993.47004.77031.17049.7
7Gross private domestic investment2185.72166.12124.32196.12209.92368.22427.824182456.52441.82470.12529.2
8Fixed investment2060.82103.12100.72144.42219.82273.42320.82347.92363.52429.124202455.8
9Nonresidential1692.81728.11724.11765.318351877.31903.819251926.41971.919491970.1
10Structures364.4371.2339.8365.3388.9402.2409416422439.4407.9423.5
11Equipment766.2787.8810.6819.2858879.1896.9908.5899.5918.8922.5929.2
12Intellectual property products563570575.2582589.6597.6599.6602.3606.4614.9620.6619.2
13Residential368.1375.1376.7379.2384.9396.2417.2423437.3457.5471.2485.7
14Change in private inventories116.258.12242.9-1180.689.256.877.27.342.262.6
15Net exports of goods and services-504.9-457.5-456.5-438.3-433.9-454.7-439.2-435.3-436.5-412.1-422.3-422
16Exports1784.91837.71854.71876.91908.91921.71941.41959.81961.619671960.52001.2
17Goods1228.41266.412801291.61309.81334.31340.21357.31362.81352.61342.81375.6
18Services556.3571574.3585599.2586.6600.7601.9598614.2617.5625.4
19Imports2289.82295.22311.32315.22342.82376.42380.62395.123982379.12382.72423.2
20Goods1881.41889.21909.81906.51923.11954.41958.61970.71972.71955.119541987.8
21Services407.5404.9399.8407.4419420.9420.8423.2424.2423.1428.3434.9
22Government consumption expenditures and gross investment3103.53071.530123002.42983.22971.72961.32963.52988.82938.82907.42900.5
23Federal12851276.41241.612471236.41226.71219.11218.51244.61198.91172.81168
24National defense825.9818.6787.8800.8805.6784.2770.7768.8791.8745723.1722
25Nondefense459.1457.7453.7446.2430.8442.5448.3449.7452.8453.9449.8446.1
26State and local1818.51795.21770.51755.51746.917451742.217451744.31739.81734.31732.1
27Residual-2.3-5-10.1-3.1-13.3-9.1-7.5-11.6-11-22.2-22.5-22.7
Legend / Footnotes:
Note. Chained (2009) dollar series are calculated as the product of the chain-type quantity index and the 2009 current-dollar value of the corresponding series, divided by 100. Because the formula for the chain-type quantity indexes uses weights of more than one period, the corresponding chained-dollar estimates are usually not additive. The residual line is the difference between the first line and the sum of the most detailed lines.
3
How the Economy has Changed - Job Recovery
4
Workforce development and
economic development are
interrelated and interdependent.
Ed = ED
The New Economy
5
What will be the biggest
socio-economic policy challenge
in the next 20 years?
Projected Population Change 2015 - 2035
Source: WI Dept. of Administration Demographic Services Center and U.W.-Madison Applied Population Lab
Projected Population Change 2015 – 2025
People Aged 65 & Older
8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA
Wisconsin Population and Labor Force
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
( x 1
000
)
POPULATION CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
Wisconsin’s Workforce Growth The New Economy
Chart2
19601960
19701970
19801980
19901990
20002000
20102010
20202020
20302030
POPULATION
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
( x 1000 )
Wisconsin Population and Labor Force
3967
1647
4417.8
1830
4602.3
2340
4895.5
2598.9
5310.4
2996.1
5751.5
3191.1
6110.9
3282.4
6415.9
3305.5
LF JOBS POP
Labor Force is annual average from LAUS
Nonfarm W&S is annual average from CES (Does not include self-employed and unpaid family wkrs)
Historic Population 1970, 1974-2006 are January 1 numbers and Projections are July 1 numbers. Data is from WI DOA
Historic Population 1954-1969, 1971-1973 are July 1 numbers. Data is from WI Dept of Health and Social Services (now Dept of Health and Family Services)
Historic Self-Employed/Unpaid Family/Private Household Workers for 1980, 1990, and 2000 are from various rounds of Wisconsin Projections
Projected LF, Nonfarm W&S, and Self-Emp/Unpaid Family/Private Household Wkrs are from Karin Wells, WI DWD OEA
All numbers are in thousands
Last Updated January 29, 2007
YEARCIVILIAN LABOR FORCENONFARM WAGE & SALARYPOPULATIONLF-JobsLF/JobsPop/JobsSELF-EMP/UNPAID FAMILY/PRIVATE HOUSEHOLD WKRSTOTAL NONFARM
19541,557.91,069.63,559.0488.31.463.33
19551,575.11,108.13,666.0467.01.423.31
19561,605.41,146.93,740.0458.51.403.26
19571,603.51,152.03,802.0451.51.393.30
19581,602.71,114.93,863.0487.81.443.46
19591,619.71,166.03,915.0453.71.393.36
19601,647.01,191.93,967.0455.11.383.33
19611,644.61,179.94,014.0464.71.393.40
19621,654.01,207.24,043.0446.81.373.35
19631,676.21,233.54,086.0442.71.363.31
19641,699.31,270.94,151.0428.41.343.27
19651,741.51,331.74,212.0409.81.313.16
19661,782.81,394.14,262.0388.71.283.06
19671,812.81,430.54,303.0382.31.273.01
19681,853.91,472.14,332.0381.81.262.94
19691,903.41,525.14,381.0378.31.252.87
19701,830.01,530.44,417.8299.61.202.89
19711,844.01,525.44,473.0318.61.212.93
19721,982.01,580.84,526.0401.21.252.86
19732,030.01,660.54,533.3369.51.222.73
19742,059.01,703.44,586.1355.61.212.69
19752,098.01,676.84,581.7421.21.252.73
19762,148.01,725.94,623.4422.11.242.68
19772,181.01,798.94,627.4382.11.212.57
19782,263.01,887.04,652.8376.01.202.47
19792,331.01,960.24,688.3370.81.192.39
19802,340.01,938.14,602.3401.91.212.37180.02,118.1
19812,370.01,923.24,730.9446.81.232.46
19822,439.01,866.84,756.3572.21.312.55
19832,425.01,864.64,777.9560.41.302.56
19842,389.01,949.24,774.4439.81.232.45
19852,373.01,983.14,779.0389.91.202.41
19862,403.02,023.94,789.1379.11.192.37
19872,493.02,089.64,794.8403.41.192.29
19882,570.02,168.54,815.5401.51.192.22
19892,611.02,236.44,863.2374.61.172.17
19902,598.92,291.54,895.5307.41.132.14172.22,463.7
19912,640.12,302.04,891.8338.11.152.13
19922,695.12,357.94,968.2337.21.142.11
19932,752.82,412.75,021.0340.11.142.08
19942,835.22,490.85,061.5344.41.142.03
19952,881.32,558.55,101.6322.81.131.99
19962,921.02,600.55,143.0320.51.121.98
19972,958.92,655.75,192.3303.21.111.96
19982,967.12,718.05,234.4249.11.091.93
19992,970.02,784.05,274.8186.01.071.89
20002,996.12,833.85,310.4162.31.061.87177.63,011.4
20013,031.02,813.95,400.4217.11.081.92
20023,036.52,782.45,453.9254.11.091.96
20033,055.72,775.35,490.7280.41.101.98
20043,040.92,803.25,533.0237.71.081.97
20053,041.52,839.65,580.8201.91.071.97
20063,082.32,868.75,617.7213.61.071.96
20103,191.13,017.35,751.5173.81.061.91181.03,198.3
20155,931.4
20203,282.43,096.66,110.9185.81.061.97181.03,277.6
20256,274.9
20303,305.53,118.46,415.9187.11.062.06181.03,299.4
2020-2030 jobs are projected to grow at the same rate as the labor force.
In the data above the 2010 projection is revised downward based on the compound annual growth rate calculated from the 2004-2014 projections
The 2010 Projection above is the number that was given to Angela Russell for the Governor's Report.
As a result of the lower 2010 projection, 2020 and 2030 are also revised downward.
Data used in original slide showing pop, lf, and job changes.
labor forcepopulationall nonfarm jobs (includes se/uf/phh)
19802,340,0004,705,7672,118,100
19902,598,8984,891,7692,463,730
20002,935,0005,363,6753,011,380
20103,191,0815,751,4703,301,160
20203,282,4346,110,8783,395,664
20303,305,5126,415,9233,419,538
Graphs
first Karin data
labor forcepopulationall nonfarm jobs (includes se/uf/phh)
19802,340,0004,705,7672,118,100
19902,598,8984,891,7692,463,730
20002,935,0005,363,6753,011,380
20103,191,0815,751,4703,301,160
20203,282,4346,110,8783,395,664
20303,305,5126,415,9233,419,538
Revised Karin Data
labor forcepopulationall nonfarm jobs (includes se/uf/phh)
19802,340,0004,705,7672,118,100
19902,598,8984,891,7692,463,730
20002,935,0005,363,6753,011,380
20103,191,0815,751,4703,198,300
20203,282,4346,110,8783,277,600
20303,305,5126,415,9233,299,400
POPULATIONCIVILIAN LABOR FORCENONFARM WAGE & SALARY
19603,967.001,647.001,191.90
19704,417.801,830.001,530.40
19804,602.302,340.001,938.10
19904,895.502,598.902,291.50
20005,310.402,996.102,833.80
20105,751.503,191.103,017.30
20206,110.903,282.403,096.60
20306,415.903,305.503,118.40
Graphs
labor force
all nonfarm jobs (includes se/uf/phh)
Revised Data
Sheet3
POPULATION
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
( x 1000 )
Wisconsin Population and Labor Force
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
NONFARM WAGE & SALARY
( x 1000 )
Wisconsin's Labor Force and Job Levels
9 Source: Office of Economic Advisors
Nursing Workforce in Wisconsin The New Economy
Chart1
< 25
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
Frequency
Wisconsin Registered Nurses by Age
1175
7703
9267
8265
8458
7995
10463
11303
9742
4675
1576
568
Age_Range
age_rangeFrequencyPercentCumulative FreqCumulative Percent
< 2511751.4577039.49
25-2977039.491697020.9
30-34926711.412523531.08
35-39826510.183369341.5
40-44845810.424168851.35
45-4979959.855215164.23
50-541046312.896345478.15
55-591130313.927319690.15
60-649742127787195.91
65-6946755.767944797.85
70-7415761.948001598.55
75+5680.781190100
Age_Range
Frequency
Wisconsin Registered Nurses by Age
Sheet2
Sheet3
Workforce Replacement Needs
Recent Beige Book noted that firms had difficulties
filling positions in:
IT, engineering, legal, health-care services, management, skilled manufacturing, building trades, and transportation and warehousing
Source: Federal Reserve Bank
“My family's here and I love it here, but going somewhere that fits my recreational interests would be better for me,” said Limbach. Limbach has a degree in geology and will locate where there are suitable jobs, but as a climber, she'd like to be around mountains.
-- Wisconsin Public Radio, Updated: Tuesday, July 22, 2014, 3:21pm, By Shamane Mills My emphasis added
New Motivations The New Economy
12
What is another workforce challenge
faced by businesses in this new Economy?
The New Economy
New Economy New Skills
"The days are over when you could walk into a paper mill with a high school diploma and run
one of the machines."
Patrick Schillinger, former Wisconsin Paper Council President, Center will teach paper-industry technology
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, JS Online, October 21, 2004.
New Economy Need for Creativity and Innovation
“Today in most fields I know, the struggle is about creativity and innovation. There is no script.”
Robert B. Shapiro Former CEO & Chairman Monsanto Corporation
15
Source: Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Routine manual
Nonroutine analytical
Nonroutine interactive
Source: K-12 Education and Economic Summit presentation by Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University
* Based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles
Workplace Requirements Changes in Skills Used at Work
Job Growth in Health Care Industries
Job growth from 2005-2015 exceeded 50% for community care and home health industries, while nursing care industries declined 10% over the period
Health Care Industry Percent Growth
*This includes all ownerships (government and private) and data not covered by QCEW
Source: Department of Workforce Development, Office of Economic Advisors (OEA), July 2016
Health Care Occupations Percent Growth
Source: Department of Workforce Development, Office of Economic Advisors (OEA), July 2016
Health Care Annual Job Openings
Source: Department of Workforce Development, Office of Economic Advisors (OEA), July 2016
Health Care Median Wage
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics (OES), May 2015
Questions?
Dennis Winters Chief Economist 608-267-3262
[email protected] http://dwd.wisconsin.gov
http://www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/
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