Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board Chairing Agency
Economic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural Service
Farm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
World Agricultural Supply and Demand EstimatesReport of May 10 2018
WASDE World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
Secretarys WASDE Briefing Slides
Foreign Ag Service World Agricultural Production
Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin
Links to the latest WASDE related publicationsOffice of the Chief Economist
World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)
US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)
World Wheat Production
May 10 2018
20172018 20182019
Country or Region EstimateChange from
April 10 ForecastChange from20172018
---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 7584 -14 7478 -106United States 474 -- 496 22
Foreign 7110 -14 6982 -128Argentina 180 -- 195 15Canada 300 -- 325 25Australia 215 -- 240 25European Union 1516 1504 -12Turkey 210 -- 200 -10Russia 850 -- 720 -130Ukraine 270 -- 265 -05Kazakhstan 148 -- 140 -08China 1298 -- 1290 -08India 985 -- 950 -35Northwest Africa 106 -01 124 19
-- No change Rounds to zero
May 10 2018
Stage-Specific Freeze Damage
Threshold
In sw Russia temperatures did not get low enough to threaten exposed winter wheat despite a shallow and
fleeting snow cover
Fall SpringWinter
Planting HeadFlower
The consistent theme across western FSUAbundant subsurface moisture supplies are in
sharp contrast with rapidly drying topsoils
May 10 2018
May 10 2018
Winter Wheat
Very warm weather over the past 7 days has accelerated wheat development considerably
Source Decadal WMO station data
Southern
North Caucasus
Central
Volga
Ukraine
May 10 2018
May 10 2018
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Apr 2
1
Apr 2
8
May
5
May
12
May
19
May
26
June
2
June
9
June
16
June
23
100
0 he
ctar
esRussia Spring Wheat Sowing Progress
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sources Rosstat (2017) MinAg forecast (2018)
Planting is nearly 50 complete in the Central District (a minor spring-wheat area) but is just underway in the Volga Ural and
Siberian Districts
May 10 2018
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Tons
per
hec
tare
Russia Wheat Estimated Yield
Winter wheat Spring wheat
Sources Rosstat (1998-2017) FAS forecast (2018)
bull The forecast winter-wheat yield is 6 above average and 10 below last yearrsquos record
bull The forecast spring-wheat yield matches the 5-year average and is 16 below last yearrsquos record
May 10 2018
Source USDA (2007-2017) FAS forecasts (2018)
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
9019
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
18
Yiel
d (T
Ha)
Area
(MH
a) a
nd P
rodu
ctio
n (M
MT)
Russia Wheat Estimated Area Yield and Production
Harvested area Production Yield
Production is forecast at 720 mmt (down 135 mmt from last year) and yield at 277 tha (down 12 from last year)
May 10 2018
May 10 2018
Morocco
Algeria Tunisia
Map data courtesy of SAGEUniv of Wisconsin and based on FAOUSDA May 10 2018
Morocco
Algeria Tunisia
Winter Wheat
An historically dry autumn in key western production areas delayed wheat planting and left
soils devoid of moisture for establishment Conditions were favorable in the east
Fall SpringWinter
Planting HeadFlower
May 10 2018
The start of the 2017-18 cool wet season was
historically dry in northern Morocco
Conversely since then it has been the wettest
over the past 30 years In northern Morocco
Selected Region(Primary Wheat)
Morocco Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index
MODIS Aqua NDVI 8-Day Seasonal ChartSPAM 2005 masked for wheat
Showing significantly above-average peak greenness and later-than-normal development
Current Crop
May 10 2018
The VHI supports much-above-average yields across the entire region though inland winter dryness in Tunisia trimmed prospects locally
Winter Wheat
May 10 2018
Northwest Africa Wheat Yield and Production
Northwest Africa Wheat Area
Source USDA PSD Data
Source USDA PSD Data
May 10 2018
World Wheat Supply and Use
May 10 2018
20172018 20182019
Item EstimateChange from
April 10 ForecastChange from20172018
---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 2559 13 2705 146Production 7584 -14 7478 -106Total Supply 10143 -01 10182 39
Feed use 1454 -04 1456 02Total use 7438 07 7539 101
Trade 1821 1884 64Ending Stocks 2705 -08 2643 -61
Rounds to zero
US Wheat Supply and Demand
May 10 2018
20172018 20182019
Item EstimateChange from
April 10 ForecastChange from20172018
Planted area (million acres) 460 -- 473 13Harvested area (million acres) 376 -- 389 14Yield (bushels per acre) 463 -- 468 05
------------ Million bushels ------------Beginning stocks 1181 -- 1070 -110Production 1741 -- 1821 81Imports 155 -- 135 -20Total supply 3076 -- 3027 -50
Food use 963 8 965 2Seed 63 1 62 -1Feed and residual 70 -- 120 50Domestic use 1096 9 1147 51
Exports 910 -15 925 15Total use 2006 -6 2072 66
Ending stocks 1070 6 955 -116----------------- Percent -----------------
Stocks to use ratio 533 05 461 -73
Average market price 470 005 450550 030-- No change
------------ Dollars per bushel ------------
World Rice Production
May 10 2018
20172018 20182019
Country or Region EstimateChange from
April 10 ForecastChange from20172018
---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 4882 08 4895 13United States 57 -- 65 08
Foreign 4826 08 4830 05Argentina 08 -- 08 01Brazil 81 -- 80 -01Egypt 43 -- 33 -10Bangladesh 327 -- 347 21Burma 132 -- 134 02Cambodia 54 04 55 01China 1460 -- 1445 -15India 1100 -- 1090 -10Indonesia 370 -- 373 03Japan 76 76 Sri Lanka 25 -- 26 01Pakistan 75 -- 74 -01Philippines 123 -- 124 Thailand 204 -- 210 06Vietnam 286 01 287 01
-- No change Rounds to zero
World Rice Supply and Use
May 10 2018
20172018 20182019
Item EstimateChange from
April 10 ForecastChange from20172018
---------------- Million Tons ----------------Beginning stocks 1368 -03 1438 70Production 4882 08 4895 13Total Supply 6250 04 6333 83Total use 4812 10 4886 74
Trade 484 03 493 09Ending Stocks 1438 -06 1447 09
US Rice Supply and Demand
May 10 2018
20172018 20182019
Item EstimateChange from
April 10 ForecastChange from20172018
Planted area (million acres) 246 -- 269 023Harvested area (million acres) 237 -- 267 030Yield (bushels per acre) 7507 -- 7610 103
------------ Million cwt ------------Beginning stocks 460 -- 343 -118Production 1782 -- 2032 250Imports 260 10 260 00Total supply 2503 10 2635 132Domestic use 1200 -- 1220 20
Exports 960 -- 1010 50Total use 2160 -- 2230 70
Ending stocks 343 10 405 62----------------- Percent -----------------
Stocks to use ratio 159 05 181 23
Average market price 12401280 -- 11901290 -020-- No change
------------ Dollars per cwt ------------
World Corn Production
May 10 2018
20172018 20182019
Country or Region EstimateChange from
April 10 ForecastChange from20172018
---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 10367 06 10561 194United States 3710 -- 3566 -143
Foreign 6657 06 6994 337Argentina 330 -- 410 80Brazil 870 -50 960 90Mexico 268 -- 260 -08Canada 141 -- 153 12European Union 621 10 610 -11Serbia 40 -- 58 18FSU-12 420 01 535 115Ukraine 241 -- 300 59Russia 132 -- 190 58South Africa 135 03 140 05China 2159 -- 2250 91India 272 -- 260 -11
-- No change
Rio Grandedo Sul
SantaCatarina
Mato GrossoBahia
Mato Grossodo Sul
Parana
SaoPaulo
MinasGerais
Goias
Tocantins
Maranhao
Piaui
abc
de
f
h
i
Para
Amazonas
Rondonia
RoraimaAmapa
Acre
Brazil Corn (Second Crop)
Major
Corn ProductionAverage (2011-13)
IntensityProductionMinorSource IBGE
a ndash Cearab ndash Rio Grande do Nortec ndash Paraibad ndash Pernambucoe ndash Alagoasf ndash Sergipeh ndash Espirito Santoi ndash Rio de Janeiro
Cr Subtropical Rain
Aw Tropical wet and dry
Leading Second-Crop Corn Producers
1) Mato Grosso2) Parana3) Mato Grosso do Sul4) GoiasJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCTNOV DEC
Second-crop corn calendar for most of Brazil
Period of Highest Intensity
PlantHarvest
Later planting (Apr ndash Jul) in northeast
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018
Brazil Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)
0123456789
Jul
-01
Jul
-23
Aug
-14
Sep
-05
Sep
-27
Oct
-19
Nov
-10
Dec
-02
Dec
-24
Jan
-15
Feb
-06
Feb
-28
Mar
-22
Apr
-13
May
-05
May
-27
Jun
-18
Parana MT
Early May
Mato Grosso
Parana
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board May 10 2018