World Population Prospects
The 2010 Revision
Gerhard K. Heilig (Chief)
Patrick Gerland, Kirill Andreev, Nan Li, Danan Gu, Thomas Spoorenberg
Sarada Ravinuthala, Chandra Yamarthy, Neena Koshy
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)
Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Section
www.unpopulation.org
International seminar on Population Estimates and Projections: methodologies, innovations and estimation of target population applied to public policies
Latin American Population Association (ALAP) - Research Network on Population Estimates and Projections,
and National School of Statistics (ENCE) of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)
Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), 9 -11 November 2011
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Team
Chief
Gerhard K. Heilig
Population Affairs
Officer
Danan Gu
Population Affairs
Officer
Nan Li
Population Affairs
Officer
Thomas
Spoorenberg
Population Affairs
Officer
Kirill Andreev
Population Affairs
Officer
Patrick Gerland
Editorial Assistant
Neena Koshy
Information
Systems Assistant
Sarada
Ravinuthala
Information
Systems Assistant
Chandrasekhar
Yamarthy
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Mandate
Prepare the World Population Prospects Official United Nations population projections, used throughout the UN System
Recent revisions prepared every second year
Latest revision: 2010 (230 countries)
22 revisions since the early 1950s
Prepare the World Urbanization Prospects Estimates and projections of urban population for 230 countries
Estimates and projections of major urban agglomerations (about 5000)
Latest revision: 2009
Since 1988
Publish results, develop methodology Web sites, wall charts, CD-ROMs/DVDs, databases
Model life tables, probabilistic projections (Bayesian Hierarchical Model)
Develop specialized databases and software DemoBase, DemoData, DataArchive
Estimation and projection software, probabilistic models, data checking
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1
World Population Prospects: What we do
60% of Workload
Update and development of new
databases and software, server
and database maintenance, backup
Start of
WPP
Evaluation Adjustments
Data Collection
230 countries / areas
Uploading to Database
Calculation of Variants
Aggregation of Regions
Epidem. Modeling for AIDS Countries
3
CD-ROMs / DVDs
Online Database
Web Sites
Statistical Reports
Vol. 1, 2
Early Release Data
Wall Chart
25% of Workload
15% of Workload
Checking of Results
2
Methodological Report
(on web site)
Start of
WUP
Fixing of Errors
Data Collection, Estimation
Projection,
Aggregation, Checking
Output Production
0
Consulting / Feedback
Responding to clients
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
0
1. Census data + post-enumeration surveys (from United Nations Demographic Yearbook database and directly from National Statistical Offices)
2. All available demographic and health surveys (DHS, DSS, MICS, WHS, etc.) for estimating fertility and mortality
3. Estimates from population and vital registers (from statistical reports of National Statistical Offices or their web sites)
4. Scientific reports and data collections (Human Mortality Database, child mortality estimates, etc.)
5. Data and estimates provided by other international agencies (CELADE, Regional Commissions, EUROSTAT, ESCAP, UNICEF, UNAIDS, WHO)
WPP data sources
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Methodology
The UN approach to estimating population
(by age and sex), fertility, mortality and migration
Availability & Data Quality
1
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Sources: Censuses (WPP2010) 1
Country / area
Year of last
census
Years since
last census Cayman Islands 1999 10
Iraq 1997 13
Turkmenistan 1995 14
Pitcairn 1992 18
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1991 18
Myanmar 1991 18
Uzbekistan 1989 20
Somalia 1986 23
Eritrea 1984 25
Dem. Rep. of the Congo 1984 25
Angola 1984 26
Afghanistan 1979 31
Lebanon 1943 67
Countries where last census was conducted
more than 10 years ago (as of 2010)
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000N
ew
Zeala
nd
Neth
erlands
Fin
land
Bulg
aria
Hungary
Pola
nd
Norw
ay
Icela
nd
Denm
ark
Belg
ium
Fra
nce
Sw
eden
United S
tate
s o
f Am
erica
Austr
iaSw
itzerland
UK:
Engla
nd a
nd W
ale
sAustr
alia
Canada
Port
ugal
Japan
Italy
Czech R
epublic
Latv
iaBela
rus
Lithuania
Spain
Luxem
bourg
Germ
any,
Federa
l Republic
of
Ukra
ine
Esto
nia
Germ
an D
em
ocra
tic R
epublic
Panam
aIs
rael
Rom
ania
Russia
n F
edera
tion
Chile
Slo
vakia
Cuba
Syrian A
rab R
epublic
Slo
venia
Peru
Gre
ece
Haiti
Malta
San M
arino
Cypru
sVenezuela
(Bolivarian R
ep.
Azerb
aijan
Ecuador
Kyrg
yzsta
nBra
zil
Taiw
an,
Pro
vin
ce o
f Chin
aPhilip
pin
es
Republic
of
Kore
aPuert
o R
ico
Cost
a R
ica
Bolivia
Trinid
ad a
nd T
obago
Chin
a,
Hong K
ong S
AR
Fiji
Arm
enia
Form
er
Yugosla
via
Thailand
Gre
enla
nd
Uru
guay
Moro
cco
Germ
any
Mauritius:
Isla
nd o
f M
auritius
Irela
nd
Mexic
oIn
dia
Republic
of
Mold
ova
Form
er
Eth
iopia
Arg
entina
UK:
Scotland
Sin
gapore
Kazakhsta
nEth
iopia
UK:
Nort
hern
Ire
land
Nic
ara
gua
Hondura
sSain
t Lucia
Jord
an
Form
er
Czechoslo
vakia
Myanm
ar
United K
ingdom
Andorr
aIr
an (
Isla
mic
Republic
of)
Guate
mala
Egypt
Bahra
inJa
maic
aSri L
anka
Serb
ia a
nd M
onte
negro
Belize
Iraq
Colo
mbia
Barb
ados
Mozam
biq
ue
Tunis
iaG
uyana
Mala
ysia
: Penin
sula
r M
ala
ysia
Lesoth
oEl Salv
ador
Bots
wana
Seychelles
Bangla
desh
Mauritius:
Rodrigues
Buru
ndi
Turk
ey
Kuw
ait
Benin
Antigua a
nd B
arb
uda
Bru
nei D
aru
ssala
mD
om
inic
aSw
aziland
Mala
ysia
Gre
nada
Uzbekis
tan
Mala
wi
Cro
atia
Sain
t H
ele
na:
Trista
n d
aM
ali
Mauritius
Alg
eria
Chad
Mart
iniq
ue
Zim
babw
eIn
donesia
Sain
t Kitts
and N
evis
Pitcairn
Fre
nch P
oly
nesia
Georg
iaSolo
mon I
sla
nds
Kenya
Nig
er
Cape V
erd
eLao P
eople
's D
em
. Republic
Para
guay
Dem
. Rep.
of
the C
ongo
Guadelo
upe
Afg
hanis
tan
Lie
chte
nste
inTFYR M
acedonia
Faero
e I
sla
nds
Berm
uda
Réunio
nCam
bodia
Pakis
tan
Baham
as
Neth
erlands A
ntilles
Dom
inic
an R
epublic
Gam
bia
Chin
a,
Macao S
AR
Mald
ives
Tajikis
tan
Papua N
ew
Guin
ea
Chin
aSain
t Vin
cent
/ G
renadin
es
Mala
ysia
: Sabah
Nepal
Mala
ysia
: Sara
wak
Zam
bia
Mongolia
Monts
err
at
Alb
ania
New
Cale
donia
Mars
hall I
sla
nds
Tonga
Sudan
Kirib
ati
Cam
ero
on
Maurita
nia
Surinam
eLib
yan A
rab J
am
ahiriy
aYem
en
Burk
ina F
aso
Togo
Qata
rVie
t N
am
Sam
oa
Niu
eO
man
Vanuatu
Guin
ea
Madagascar
Rw
anda
UR o
f Tanzania
Centr
al Afr
ican R
epublic
Equato
rial G
uin
ea
Com
oro
sSaudi Ara
bia
Cook I
sla
nds
Bhuta
nCongo
Gabon
Sie
rra L
eone
Senegal
Nam
ibia
Aru
ba
Bosnia
and H
erz
egovin
aG
uin
ea-B
issau
Lib
eria
Nig
eria
South
Afr
ica
Côte
d'Ivoire
Mic
ronesia
(Fed.
Sta
tes o
f)Yem
en:
Form
er
Dem
. Yem
en
United A
rab E
mirate
sLebanon
Occupie
d P
ale
stinia
n T
err
.Is
le o
f M
an
Angola
Dem
. People
's R
ep.
of
Kore
aD
jibouti
Eritr
ea
Ghana
Monaco
Nauru
Pala
uSão T
om
é a
nd P
ríncip
eSom
alia
Turk
menis
tan
Tuvalu
Uganda
Fre
nch G
uia
na
Form
er
USSR
Channel Is
lands:
Guern
sey
Sain
t H
ele
na e
x.
dep.
Monte
negro
Serb
iaTim
or-
Leste
UR o
f Tanzania
: Zanzib
ar
UR o
f Tanzania
: Tanganyik
aW
este
rn S
ahara
Caym
an I
sla
nds
Coco
s (
Keeling)
Isla
nds
Turk
s a
nd C
aic
os I
sla
nds
British V
irgin
Isla
nds
Am
erican S
am
oa
Norf
olk
Isla
nd
United S
tate
s V
irgin
Isla
nds
Christ
mas I
sla
nd
2005-08
2000-04
1995-99
1990-94
1985-89
1980-84
1975-79
1970-74
1965-69
1960-64
1955-59
1950-54
Population statistics are sufficient for cohort component projection.
Projection benefits significantly from Census data.
Population statistics Insufficient for cohort component projection.
Projection can be done only with Census data.
Figure 2: Data Availability from Estimates.
Population in five-year age groups by sex: Number of data
points 1950-2008 in five-year intervals
Source: UNPD, DemoData. Chart by GKH.
Population statistics usually sufficent for cohort component projection.
Estimation often can be improved with Census data.
Register Data: Population by Age and Sex
Sufficient for cohort-component projection
Partially sufficient for cohort-component projection
Not sufficient for projection
≈ 2/3 of countries have insufficient
population estimates by age and sex
to establish consistent time-series
from 1950 to present
1
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Sources: Child Mortality Estimation (WPP2010) 1
Number of countries according to the most recent data available
Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009
61 Countries have child mortality information from before 2004
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Sources: Adult Mortality Estimation (WPP2010) 1
Number of countries according to the most recent data available
Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009
74 Countries have no information on adult mortality at all !
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Sources: Fertility Estimation (WPP2010) 1
Number of countries according to the most recent data available
Only countries with a population of 100,000 or more in 2009
62 Countries have only fertility information from before 2004
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Population from Censuses 1
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Population from Censuses 1
Under-reported migrant workers
Under-reported births
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Total Population 1
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Total Population 1
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Total Population 1
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Mortality: 1q0, 5q0 (Senegal) 1
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Mortality: 5q0 (Senegal)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
A. Birth histories
UNPD Spline 1978 WFS1986 DHS1992-1993 DHS1997 DHS1999 DHS2000 MICS2005 DHS2008-2009 MICS
Saint-Louis (SEN), VRBamako (MLI), VR
Ouaga. (DSS)
Mauritius, VR
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
B. CEB/CS
Fouta Toro (Maures)1960-1961 survey1978 WFS1986 DHS1992-1993 DHS1996 MICS1997 DHS1999 DHS2005 DHS2006 MICS2008-2009 MICS
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
C. Household deaths
Fouta Toro (Toucouleurs & Peuls)Fouta Toro (Maures)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
D. Vital Registration
Mauritius (VR)BamakoDakarSaint-Louis
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
E. Multiround survey
1970-1971 Multiround Survey1978-1979 Multiround SurveyDakarCentral valleyThienaha
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
F. Demographic Surveillance Sites
OuagadougouBandafassiFakao-PalmarinFakaoMlompNiakharN'gayokhèmePeul BandePaos-Koto
1
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Mortality: 45q15 (Senegal)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
A. Derived from 5q0 and relational model
UNPD (CD-N)Timaeus/SahelCD-SouthCD-North
Loess reg.Spline
UNPD
Saint-Louis (SEN), VR
Bamako (MLI), VROuaga. (DSS)
Mauritius, VR
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
B. Household deaths
Fouta Toro (Toucouleurs & Peuls)1988 Census
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
C. Intercensal survival
1960-1971 surveys1972-1982 census estimates1978-1988 census1982-1992 census estimates1992-2002 census estimates
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
D. Maternal orphanhood
1986 DHS (at marriage)1986 DHS1986 DHS (=> marriage)1988 Census1992-1993 DHS2005 DHS
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
E. Siblings
1992-1993 DHS2005 DHSDHS-Siblings (pooled analysis)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
F. Vital Registration
Mauritius (VR)BamakoDakarSaint-Louis
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
G. Multiround survey
1970-1971 Multiround Survey1978-1979 Multiround SurveyDakar
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
H. Demographic Surveillance Sites
OuagadougouBandafassiFakaoMlomp
NiakharN'gayokhèmePeul BandePaos-Koto
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Fertility: TFR (Senegal)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
23
45
67
8
Observed (weighted)
1957 Middle Senegal (D)1957 Middle Senegal (I)
1957 Middle Senegal (D-A)1960-61 survey (D)
1960-61 survey (D-A)1970-71 EDN (D)1978 WFS (D)
1978 WFS (D-A)1986 DHS (D)1986 DHS (D-A)
1988 census (D)1992-93 DHS (D)
1992-93 DHS (D-A)1997 DHS (D)
1997 DHS (D-A)1999 ESIS (D)
1999 ESIS (D-A)MICS-MD (D)2002 census (D)
2002 census (D-A)2005 ESIS (D)2005 ESIS (D-A)
2006 MIS (D)2008-2009 MIS (D)
WPP08 Loess regression
Cubic Spline
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Fertility: ASFR (Bangladesh) 1
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Estimation of Fertility: ASFR (Bangladesh)
Lines are weighted cubic spline and loess regression trends
1
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Methodology: The UN approach to
projecting total fertility
A Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) based on
bi-logistic decline curves of fertility
2
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Model of fertility decline
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Children per woman
Fe
rtili
ty d
eclin
e
Fast/Fast Fast/Slow Slow/Slow
Model: Bi-logistic function to estimate the rate of fertility decline
2
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
1
2
3
4
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Child
ren p
er
wom
an
Fast/Fast Fast/Slow Slow/Slow Floor
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year C
hild
ren p
er
wom
an
Fast/Fast Fast/Slow Slow/Slow Floor
Projections: Fertility
A. From high to low fertility
B. From medium to 1.85
2
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Model of fertility decline
Model: Bi-logistic function to estimate the rate of fertility decline
1 2
1 2
1 2
( )(81) (81)
1 exp[ ( )] 1 exp[ ( )]m m
k kP t
Ln Lnt t t t
t t
Parameter Slow/Slow Fast/Slow Fast/Fast
k1 ............... -0.11 -0.16 -0.25
Δt1.............. 5.03 4.34 4.01
tm1 .............. 5.77 5.06 5.17
k2 ............... 0.15 0.22 0.31
Δt2.............. 2.75 3.02 4.32
tm2 .............. 3.21 3.52 3.94
In probabilistic fertility projection: Parameters values are replaced
by distributions. Some 100,000 trajectories of fertility decline are
calculated by sampling from these parameter distributions.
2
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Fertility models and empirical data
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
012345678910
Average annual decline in TFR
Total Fertility
Average annual TFR decline
Fast/Fast
Fast/Slow
Slow/Slow
China
Iran
Mexico
Poland
2
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
BHM: A fertility transition model
Phase I: Not modeled.
Phase II: Fertility transition, modeled by
Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM)
Phase III: Modeled with a first order
autoregressive time series model [AR1],
with its mean fixed at the approximate
replacement-level fertility of 2.1
2
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2 BHM: A fertility transition model
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2 BHM: A fertility transition model
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2 BHM: Bi-logistic functions and TF projections
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2 Probabilistic Projection of Population: Niger
Based on estimates from WPP2010; probabilistic fertility, deterministic mortality
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2 Probabilistic Projection of Population: Nigeria
Based on estimates from WPP2010; probabilistic fertility, deterministic mortality
Total Population Population age 15-64
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2 Probabilistic Projection of Population: Japan
Based on estimates from WPP2010; probabilistic fertility, deterministic mortality
Total Population Population age 15-64
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
2 Probabilistic Projection of Population: Ukraine
Based on estimates from WPP2010; probabilistic fertility, deterministic mortality
Total Population Population age 15-64
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Methodology: The UN approach to
projecting life expectancy
3
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Models for projecting life expectancy at birth
Illustration of the double-logistic function (based on a curve from Japan).
The left plot illustrates the double-logistic function of 5-year gains in life
expectancy. The right plot is a time-series of life expectancy, e(0), with
gains modeled according to the double-logistic function
3
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Models for projecting life expectancy at birth 3
Illustration of the double-logistic function (based on a curve from Japan).
The left plot illustrates the double-logistic function of 5-year gains in life
expectancy. The right plot is a time-series of life expectancy, e(0), with
gains modeled according to the double-logistic function
Un
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Models for projecting life expectancy at birth
UN Model: Five-year gains in life expectancy at birth (in years): Male
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
27.5 32.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 62.5 67.5 72.5 77.5 82.5 87.5 92.5
e(0)
5-y
ea
r g
ain
s
Very fast (p90)
Fast pace (p75)
Medium Pace (m)
Slow pace (p25)
Very slow (p10)
3
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Models for projecting life expectancy at birth
UN Model: Five-year gains in life expectancy at birth (in years): Female
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
27.5 32.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 62.5 67.5 72.5 77.5 82.5 87.5 92.5
e(0)
5-y
ea
r g
ain
s
Very fast (p90)
Fast pace (p75)
Medium Pace (m)
Slow pace (p25)
Very slow (p10)
3
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Projections: Mortality models and empirical data
Male: average annual gain in e0 at a given e0
-0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
year
Average annual gain
Oman
Norway
Japan
Very fast (p90)
Fast pace (p75)
Medium Pace (m)
Slow pace (p25)
Very slow (p10)
3
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Probabilistic mortality projection
ctct
iidc
ctc
l
lg
ctctcyg
tcl
tcl
tCctc
l
offunction smoothed ,0Normal~
,Normal Truncated~
Fcn Logistic Double param 6)|(
)|,
(,1,
6
,
.
.
period time countries; ,...,1;expectancylife,
Data:
• Male life expectancy at birth from 1950 through 2005;
• Estimates from UN World Population Prospects (WPP2006)
3
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
Data Checking 5
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
DemoData: Empirical Database 5
Different Data Sources
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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York
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