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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Implications for Agriculture in the Asia-Pacific Region
Andrew AshInterim DirectorCSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship
Climate change is occurring and is due to human activities *
* From: IPCC, 2007: Summary for Poicymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
We are currently tracking at the very high end of emission scenarios and temperature projections
Rahmstorf et al.
Climate change is projected to continue15-model average changes in temperature by 2030, relative to 1990
Suppiah et al (in prep)
Low CO2 emission scenario
Temperature change (°C)
High CO2 emission scenario
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
Summary of Projected Climate Changes
• Temperature to increase 3oC by 2050 and 5oC by 2070 over land areas
• Lower increases in temperature in maritime environments
• Precipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a drying in mid-latitudes (sub-tropics) over Asia
• Equatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean change expected
• No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase by 10-20%
• Accelerated melting of glaciers – 65% of China’s glaciers will not exist by 2050 with current and projected warming trends
• Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) but estimates don’t include significant ice melt
Table 2.3. Reported Natural Disasters in the Pacific Islands (1950-2004)
Event Number Fatalities Population Affected
Losses (millions 2004
US$)
Windstorms 157 1,380 2,496,808 5,903.90
Droughts 10 0 629,580 137.00
Floods 8 40 246,644 94.80
Earthquakes 17 53 22,254 330.60
Others 15 274 21,520+ 60.00
Vulnerability to extreme events
Vulnerability to sea level rise
Vulnerability of Asian Sectors Related to Agriculture to Climate Change
Regions Food and Fibre Water Resources
Coastal Ecosystems
Arid and semi-arid Asia
Central Asia Highly vulnerable Highly vulnerable
Moderately vulnerable
Tibetan Plateau Slightly or not vulnerable
Moderately vulnerable
Not applicable
Temperate Asia Highly vulnerable Highly vulnerable
Highly vulnerable
Tropical Asia and Small Island States
South Asia Highly vulnerable Highly vulnerable
Highly vulnerable
Southeast Asia Highly vulnerable Highly vulnerable
Highly vulnerable
Sectoral vulnerability
Impacts on agriculture
Four main climate related drivers on agriculture:
• Elevated carbon dioxide
• Rainfall and associated water resource availability
• Temperature – both direct and indirect through evaporation
• Extreme weather events (wind, flood damage)
These interact to affect agricultural productivity, quality, pests and diseases.
• Benefits of elevated CO2 lost as temperatures increase
• Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local warmings of 1-3o C, then decrease for greater warming
• Crop productivity is projected to decrease for local warmings of 1-2o C at lower latitudes, e.g. tropics, which would increase risk of hunger. Decreases in revenue up to 25%
• Monsoon more variable and increased damage from cyclones
• Agricultural irrigation demand in sub-tropical semi-arid zones (lower precipitation, higher evaporation) likely to be 10% per degree of warming
• Northward shift of agricultural zones in Asia (single, double, tri-planting)
• Commercial timber productivity is projected to rise modestly
• Likely impacts on fisheries but outcomes are uncertain
Impacts on agriculture and food security
Adapting to Climate Change
Adaptation involves both the actions of adjusting practices, processes and capital in response to the actuality or threat of climate change as well as changes in the decision environment such as social and institutional structures.
Adaptation helps to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences of climate change.
Mitigation of climate change refers to those response strategies that reduce the sources of greenhouse gases or enhance their sinks, to subsequently reduce the probability of reaching a given level of climate change
Adapting to climate change
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Changing Climate
Planning Horizon
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Changing Climate
Planning Horizon
CopingRange
Vulnerable
Vulnerable
Adaptation
Changing Climate Stationary Climate & Coping Range
Tropical Asia
• Adjust cropping calendar and crop rotation to deal with climatic variability and extremes
• Develop and promote use of high-yielding varieties and sustainable technological applications
Semi-arid and arid Asia
• Change in agriculture system (introduction of humidity-preserving technologies, application of advanced agro-technical measures, and the introduction of new frost resistant, low water use and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties)
• Reconstruction of existing irrigation system (introduction of sprinkling and drip irrigation)
Adaptation in agriculture
Conclusion – Winners and Losers
Between agricultural industries
Between regions
Impacts are on economic, environmental and social
components of the system
Degree of impact will depend on adaptation