www.csiro.au
Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
John Mo
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
Complex Systems Science in Focus
8-10 August 2006Coogee Bay Hotel, Sydney, NSW
Physical Systems
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Some Thoughts
What are the properties of extreme events and what are the implications of those properties for decision making?
What is the role of decision making in extreme events?
What contextual factors that characterize extreme events are important in decision making?
What is needed to improve extreme event decision making and how to achieve that improvement through research?
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
US North East Blackout 2003
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Melbourne Federation Square Mass Gatherings
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Accidents With Mass Casualties
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Tsunami
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Characteristics of Extreme Events and Implications to Decision Support Requirements
Rapid onset vs. “creeping change”
High consequence
Under-represented and disenfranchised groups tend to be disproportionately vulnerable
Time pressure
Rare, non repeating
High uncertainty
Pose complex, ill structured problems
Potential to create long-term change
Affect large numbers of people and/or large ecosystems
Little opportunity for learning. Relevant experience may be lacking. May or may not be a factor in evolutionary psychology.
The decision making implications may be quite different for different events.Attention will be focussed on event. Consequence of decisions could be disastrous.Generally, extreme events are difficult to predict. They often occur with insufficient warning.Limited time for analysis, Stress producing.This lack of structure may encourage intuitive mode of responding when analytic mode is more appropriate.In the aftermath of an extreme event, decision makers may face a new environment.Group decision, leadership, government action, trust, and cooperation/communication among stakeholders are important for implementation of effective decisions.
Equity should be explicitly considered in decision making
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
What Can Science Do?
Evaluate the impact if it happens. The 1-10-100 rule?
Disastrous events must be prevented.
Infer (from scientific base) the unthinkable.
The flow-on consequences of a critical failure
Propagation of failure to other infrastructures
“What if” analysis
Options for investment and other mitigation strategies
Effectiveness of response plans
Prepare to respond swiftly and “correctly” even with dysfunctional systems
Vulnerability assessment
Choke points, single points of failure
Scenarios, including natural disasters and acts of terrorism
Business continuity
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
NEMSIM
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
National Electricity Network (NEM section)
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Demand Modelling
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Modelling for Blackout Analysis
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Weather model
Wind power
Infrastructure Model Elements
Gust windLightning
AdelaideMt.
GambiaPort
AugustaYorke Whyalla
Fire Fault
Regionaldemand
Temper-ature
No. of A/C
Day of week
SA Pool prices
Despatch Capacity
Mainten-ance
Gen. behaviour
Network constraint
NEM demand
NEM prices
Vic-SA Link
Murray Link
Geo-spatial
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Simulation of Blackout in South Australia
Specified conditions:Hot day
Interconnector issues:
Lightning (location, intensity)
Gust wind 120 km/hr
Planned maintenance shutdowns
Multiple generator failures
Policy discrepancy
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
2005 Hurricane Katrina
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
The Dennis Mileti Workshop at Emergency Management Australia
Dennis Mileti – Director of the Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center of the University of Colorado at Boulder (Invited speaker to the Australian National Emergency Management Committee, EMA, 31 August, 1999)
“The potential complexity … that hazards and risks appear to shift in ways we don’t fully understand. …
Many of our mitigation efforts themselves degrade the environment and contribute to the next disaster
… simply postponing events of even greater ultimate magnitude
…the building of levée banks ... encourage development behind them which increases losses when eventually they fail.”
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Cascading Events?
Weather model
Wind power
Gust windLightning
AdelaideMt.
GambiaPort
AugustaYorke Whyalla
Fire Fault
Regionaldemand
Temper-ature
No. of A/C
Day of week
SA Pool prices
Despatch Capacity
Mainten-ance
Gen. behaviour
Network constraint
NEM demand
NEM prices
Vic-SA Link
Murray Link
Geo-spatial
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Major US Blackouts
1950 June 6
Widespread outage in the Pacific Northwest from British Columbia and Washington to Oregon, Idaho, and Utah and Montana.
1965
January 28th. 6 mid-western states for 2.5 hours. 2 million people affected.
April 11th. A tornado hits in Indiana and blackout extended to St. Louis and Iowa.
November 9th. 8 states fell into darkness for almost a day. Began in Canada Toronto, Rochester, Boston, New York. 4 million homes affected.
December 2nd. A power failure in the El Paso area (Texas, New Mexico, and Mexico) occurred at 8 pm and lasted for 2 hours.
1977 July 13 & 14
New York City suffered a massive blackout for 2 days. A number of communities erupted in violence. 3,766 looters arrested and the city suffered an economic blow estimated at more than $300 million. Time magazine called "A Night of Terror."
2003 August 14
New York City and much of the Northeast were paralyzed by a sudden blackout for over 24 hours. 50 million people affected.
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Mercury 05
Senator Chris Ellison, Minister for Justice and Customs:
“Australia’s largest-ever counter-terrorism exercise, Mercury 05, had met all objectives and reinforced some valuable lessons for more than 4000 participating members of our national security agencies and emergency services”
More than a year of planning and development went into making Mercury 05 as realistic as possible and the response from our police, intelligence, defence, security and emergency services personnel was outstanding
The four-day long exercise included mock bombing attacks or threats in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney, a threat to gas facilities in South Australia, a siege following the hijacking of a busload of foreign athletes and the recovery of a foreign vessel with terrorists aboard.
Complex Systems Science in Focus - Decision Support Systems Involving Simulation of Extreme Events
Extreme events
Wide area power outages
Earth quake / Tsunami
Bomb blast / Accident gas explosion
Hurricane
Fire / Bush Fire
Flooding
Traffic blockade
CEO / VIP / politician kidnapped
Extreme weather
Mass gatherings
Stock market crashed
Avian flu / SARS outbreak