www.idc.com
Hrvatski dani Interneta 2002
Rijeka, 12-14 lipnja 2002
Hrvatski dani Interneta 2002
Rijeka, 12-14 lipnja 2002
Boris ŽitnikCountry Manager
IDC Croatia
Boris ŽitnikCountry Manager
IDC Croatia
AgendaAgenda
• IT Market Developments
• Internet Market Figures
• About IDC
• IT Market Developments
• Internet Market Figures
• About IDC
1010
100100
1,0001,000
19701970 19801980 19901990
IT Users (M)IT Users (M)
20002000 20102010
IT Spending ($B)IT Spending ($B)
5050
500500
5,0005,000
Automate Automate Back-OfficeBack-Office
AutomateAutomateFront-OfficeFront-Office
AutomateAutomateCustomersCustomers
The New Era of IT DevelopmentThe New Era of IT Development
September 11September 11
20012001
IT industry on the ropesIT industry on the ropes
Telecom winterTelecom winter
Dot-com crash to global recessionDot-com crash to global recession
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Worldwide US Western Europe
September 11 drops 4% off
growth
September 11 drops 4% off
growth
Source: IDC 2002Source: IDC 2002
Worldwide IT Spending Growth %Worldwide IT Spending Growth %
Last Year’s Spending CollapseLast Year’s Spending Collapse
The IT Business Cycle PatternThe IT Business Cycle Pattern
New technology initiates a new paradigm, creating a speculative bubble
New technology initiates a new paradigm, creating a speculative bubble
… which eventually leads to a new technology …
… which eventually leads to a new technology …
Long term exploitation of the new paradigm begins, with technology and business innovations that work within the constraints of current mega trends …
Long term exploitation of the new paradigm begins, with technology and business innovations that work within the constraints of current mega trends …
Reality strikes within 5 years, triggering a temporary slowdown
Reality strikes within 5 years, triggering a temporary slowdown
The Current ReboundThe Current Rebound
$150
$200
$250
$300
Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 2H 01 02 03
Source: IDC 2002, estimated based on IDC WW Black BookSource: IDC 2002, estimated based on IDC WW Black Book
$ Billions
Quarterly SpendingQuarterly Spending
Quarterly AverageQuarterly Average
Worldwide Estimated Hardware Spending by Quarter Worldwide Estimated Hardware Spending by Quarter
Globalization vs. Regional Trends Globalization vs. Regional Trends
Last decade, starting from the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have been catching the low-hanging fruits of globalization
Next decade, we will be dealing with major political and economic discontinuities
As a result:
1) Globalization Trends will go through a number of “stop-and-go”
2) We will experience lot more economic conflicts and commercial wars among US, Europe and China
Last decade, starting from the fall of the Berlin Wall, we have been catching the low-hanging fruits of globalization
Next decade, we will be dealing with major political and economic discontinuities
As a result:
1) Globalization Trends will go through a number of “stop-and-go”
2) We will experience lot more economic conflicts and commercial wars among US, Europe and China
3) International Markets will be characterized by the Emergence of fast Regionalization Processes
4) We will experience a new role of geographies and mushrooming of new business opportunities and regional players in Europe
5) Europe will be a lot more attractive Market, because European Companies will be fighting for competitiveness, they’ll need leading technologies and infrastructures to become more efficient
6) Global Product Lines vs. Geographies
3) International Markets will be characterized by the Emergence of fast Regionalization Processes
4) We will experience a new role of geographies and mushrooming of new business opportunities and regional players in Europe
5) Europe will be a lot more attractive Market, because European Companies will be fighting for competitiveness, they’ll need leading technologies and infrastructures to become more efficient
6) Global Product Lines vs. Geographies
Globalization vs. Regional TrendsGlobalization vs. Regional Trends
Present Market ScenarioPresent Market Scenario
• We come from a very tough year
• Our perception is that the market has bottomed out in the last quarter of 2001, and that a slow, cautious and progressive recovery is in place
• WW IT spending 2002…5%; ...2003…10%
• Main positive indicators to support this perception
1) IDC’s Opportunity map
2) CIO magazine Recent Tech Poll
3) Our own sales are catching up
• We come from a very tough year
• Our perception is that the market has bottomed out in the last quarter of 2001, and that a slow, cautious and progressive recovery is in place
• WW IT spending 2002…5%; ...2003…10%
• Main positive indicators to support this perception
1) IDC’s Opportunity map
2) CIO magazine Recent Tech Poll
3) Our own sales are catching up
Asp
Apps LifeCycle Mngm
XML & Virtual DB.
Applic. Server
System Mngm SW
Security SWWeb Server SW
Businesware Mngt Syst.
IT Consulting
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
100,0%
DW/BI
ERM
CRM
eCOMM
Apps Outs
InternetServices
Syst. Integr.
SW Supp.
Custom Sw. IS Outs.
Netw&Dtop Outs
Proc. Serv.HW Maint.
SCA
eLearning
ApplicationIntegration
Doc.& Cont. Mngm.
IT Security
CA
GR
200
1-20
02
CAGR 01-0218.2%
CAGR 01-029.8%
CAGR 01-0233.2%
CAGR 01-0223%
App.Develop&Infrastructure SWMission Critical ApplicationsInternet and xSP ServicesIT ServicesOther “Hot Segments”
IDC’s Treasure Map
Western Europe $307.2 billion
(27.9% of WW)
Western Europe $307.2 billion
(27.9% of WW)
CEE $13.1 billion
(1.2% of WW)
CEE $13.1 billion
(1.2% of WW)
Total = $1.101Total = $1.101 billion billionTotal = $1.101Total = $1.101 billion billion
Croatia $390 million
(2,9% of CEE)
Croatia $390 million
(2,9% of CEE)
IT Spending 2001IT Spending 2001
IT Spending/per capitaIT Spending/per capita
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
CZ HUN POL SK ROM CRO SLO BUL
Izvor: IDC, 2002Izvor: IDC, 2002
IT spending per capita in CEE, 2001 ($)IT spending per capita in CEE, 2001 ($)
IT spending ($ million)IT spending ($ million)
Source: IDC, 2002Source: IDC, 2002
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
IT Spending in Croatia, 1996 - 2003IT Spending in Croatia, 1996 - 2003
Internet FiguresInternet Figures
• Internet Users
• eCommerce
• Internet Users
• eCommerce
20042004900 Million900 Million
Source: IDC ICMM V 7.0Source: IDC ICMM V 7.0Source: IDC ICMM V 7.0Source: IDC ICMM V 7.0
20012001500 Million500 Million
20012001500 Million500 Million
Internet Users WorldwideInternet Users Worldwide
33% buy over the 33% buy over the WebWeb33% buy over the 33% buy over the WebWeb
$500 billion B2C, $500 billion B2C, 6-fold increase6-fold increase$500 billion B2C, $500 billion B2C, 6-fold increase6-fold increase
Internet Users – Doubling in NumbersInternet Users – Doubling in Numbers
Internet Users (year-end 2001)Internet Users (year-end 2001)
WW 500,2
Europe 167,4
Western Europe 151,3
CEE 16,1
Croatia 0,5
Internet users (million)Internet users (million)
Source: IDC, 2002Source: IDC, 2002
$Trillion
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
$Trillion
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
$2.5T$2.5T
$0.1T$0.1T
eBusiness 1.0 eBusiness 2.0
eCommerce WorldwideeCommerce Worldwide
eCommerce Spending, 2001 ($ billion)eCommerce Spending, 2001 ($ billion)
Total B2B B2C
WW 607,7 495,8 111,8
Europe 155,6 136,5 19,1
Western Europe 153,7 134,8 18,9
CEE 1,8 1,7 0,2
Croatia 0,021 0,019 0,002
Source: IDC, 2002Source: IDC, 2002
0000
5555
10101010
15151515
20202020
25252525
2000200020002000 2001200120012001 2002200220022002 2003200320032003 2004200420042004
Businesses with Web Sites ((Millions WorldwideMillions Worldwide))Businesses with Web Sites ((Millions WorldwideMillions Worldwide))
Source: IDC ICMM V7.0Source: IDC ICMM V7.0Source: IDC ICMM V7.0Source: IDC ICMM V7.0
All Web SitesAll Web Sites OutsourcedOutsourced
$36 billion $36 billion networked networked infrastructure infrastructure management management servicesservices
$36 billion $36 billion networked networked infrastructure infrastructure management management servicesservices
$85 billion Web $85 billion Web hostinghosting$85 billion Web $85 billion Web hostinghosting
Building More eBusinessesBuilding More eBusinesses
New Internet Users2002–2006New Internet Users2002–2006
553M 553M
Source: IDC Internet Commerce Market Model V 8.1, 2002Source: IDC Internet Commerce Market Model V 8.1, 2002
New Internet Users1994–2001New Internet Users1994–2001
500M 500M
Mobile94M
Mobile479M
Mobile & Wireless: LandscapeMobile & Wireless: Landscape
IDC HrvatskaIDC Hrvatska
•IDC u Hrvatskoj…1996. / OMNIAconsult
•IDC Hrvatska …srpanj 2001.
Područja djelovanjaPodručja djelovanja
• Priprema godišnjih i kvartalnih reporta (on the shelf produkti)
• Istraživanja i projekti po narudžbi
• Consulting
• IT konferencije
• Priprema godišnjih i kvartalnih reporta (on the shelf produkti)
• Istraživanja i projekti po narudžbi
• Consulting
• IT konferencije
• Systems (PCs, Systems & Servers)
• Communications (Internet Economy, Telecom)
• Office Equipment (Printers quarterly and annual, MFP, Copiers, Handheld)
• Software & Services (IT Services, EAS)
• Other (IT Executive Tracker)
• Systems (PCs, Systems & Servers)
• Communications (Internet Economy, Telecom)
• Office Equipment (Printers quarterly and annual, MFP, Copiers, Handheld)
• Software & Services (IT Services, EAS)
• Other (IT Executive Tracker)
“On The Shelf” produkti“On The Shelf” produkti
Ostali produktiOstali produkti
Usluge
• Istraživački projekti po narudžbi
• Inquiry hours
• Prezentacije
IT Konferencije
• Storage Roadshow, 02.05.2002.
Usluge
• Istraživački projekti po narudžbi
• Inquiry hours
• Prezentacije
IT Konferencije
• Storage Roadshow, 02.05.2002.