WP 5 -- Intervention Analysis
Identification and Implementation of
High-Impact Interventions—Use of
modeling tools
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Outline
� WP5—Yellow River Basin
� Tools to support WP5 type analyses
• Global water and food projection tools
• Basin models
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
WORK PACKAGESWP5: Intervention Analysis
� Research Activities:
• Literature review on previous, current, and
proposed interventions in the YRB
• Identification and assessment of high potential
interventions for increasing water productivity
and alleviating poverty
• Stakeholder insights from upper, middle, and
lower basin
� WP5 Leaders: Xue Yunpeng and Claudia
Ringler with support from everyone else
Yellow River Basin WP5
Implementation Process
WP0 Phase I
• Data/Project/Models Review/Basin Tour
• Project Design
• Conceptual Framework
• Development of Tools & Methods
WP1 Water
Poverty
Mapping &
Analysis
Ranking of
alternative
Scenario
outcomes to
determine
High Potential
Interventions
WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation
Platform
WP2 Water
Availability
and Access
WP3 Water Productivity
Analysis – Basin Model
WP4 Institutional Analysis
ST
AK
EH
OL
DE
R D
IAL
OG
UE
WP
5S
CE
NA
RIO
AN
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YS
IS
-Alte
rnativ
e in
terv
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tion
s, im
pacts
, an
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BA
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SHARED VISION MODELING
Phase II
WP0 Phase I
• Data/Project/Models Review/Basin Tour
• Project Design
• Conceptual Framework
• Development of Tools & Methods
WP1 Water
Poverty
Mapping &
Analysis
Ranking of
alternative
Scenario
outcomes to
determine
High Potential
Interventions
WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation
Platform
WP2 Water
Availability
and Access
WP3 Water Productivity
Analysis – Basin Model
WP4 Institutional Analysis
ST
AK
EH
OL
DE
R D
IAL
OG
UE
WP
5S
CE
NA
RIO
AN
AL
YS
IS
-Alte
rnativ
e in
terv
en
tion
s, im
pacts
, an
d C
BA
-
SHARED VISION MODELING
Phase II
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
What is a Shared Vision Model?
A “Shared Vision” model is a
collective view of a water resources
system jointly developed by
modelers, managers and
stakeholders. It is used to facilitate
plan development, implementation
and maintenance
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Perceived Advantages of
Shared Vision Models
Shared Vision Models
� Improve analysis
� Are more flexible
� Communicate more effectively
� Cost less to develop than traditional
approaches
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Modeling Philosophy
Shared Vision Models should
� Be developed with wide support
� Improve communication among
managers and stakeholders
� Disseminate information equally
� Improve planning and
management of water
resources
� Serve as a basis for effective
negotiation
Gain Stakeholder Endorsement
Structure Modeling Process
Overview of
Model Development Process
Define Objectives
Conceptualize System
Construct Model
Test &Validate Model
Establish Ongoing Role For Model
Enhance/Modify Model
MODELING TOOLS IN SUPPORT
OF INTERVENTION ANALYSIS
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 10
Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2000-
2050
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Calorie availability, key riparian countries
(calories per capita per day)
-5000
5001000150020002500300035004000
Eth
iop
ia
Mo
za
mb
iqu
e
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bw
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os
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Ind
ia
Th
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an
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bia
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My
an
ma
r
So
uth
_A
fric
a
Ch
ina
Eg
yp
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2000 2000-2050
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Irrigation water supply reliability is decliningIrrigation water supply reliability is declining
Increasing Irrigation Water
Scarcity
Note: Irrigation Water Supply Reliability is defined as the ratiNote: Irrigation Water Supply Reliability is defined as the ratio of actual o of actual
irrigation water consumption to potential irrigation water consuirrigation water consumption to potential irrigation water consumption.mption.
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Chin
aO
ther E
AP
India
O
ther S
A
SSA
LAC
ME
NA
Dev
elopi
ngD
evelo
ped
2000
2050
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Irrigated and rainfed harvested area,
Ganges basin (million hectares)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2030 2050
Rainfed
Irrigated
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Irrigated and rainfed harvested area,
Mekong basin (million hectares)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2030 2050
Rainfed
Irrigated
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Irrigated and rainfed harvested area, Nile
basin (million hectares)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2030 2050
Rainfed
Irrigated
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Irrigated and rainfed harvested area, Volta
basin (million hectares)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2030 2050
Rainfed
Irrigated
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Irrigated and rainfed harvested area,
Limpopo basin (million hectares)
0
1
2
3
4
2000 2030 2050
Rainfed
Irrigated
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Sources of Cereal Production
Growth, Baseline, 2000-2050
Page 18
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Net cereal trade (million mt)
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
EAP SA SSA LAC MENA HIC ECA
2000
2030
2050
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Changes of Annual Precipitation by 2030 (%)
(HadCM3)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Changes of Annual Potential ET by 2030 (%)
(HadCM3)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Changes of Annual Runoff by 2030 (%)
(HadCM3)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Irrigation Water Supply ReliabilityIMPACT Model Projections
Selected Insights
� Basins span a good range for presented indicators, including average rainfall, water availability per capita, population density, and irrigation development
� Urbanization important for all basins, but in several basins urban centers are outside the basin area (Andean, Volta, Mekong, Limpopo)
� Climate change is a threat in all basins, but is expected to play out in different ways
� Maize is an important crop in all river basins
� Non-irrigation water demand increases faster than irrigation demand
Selected Insights
� Under baseline, childhood malnutrition largest in the
Ganges, generally declining in Asian basins, but
increasing in African basins before declining
� Yield growth is expected to contribute most to future
productivity growth in river basins; only in African
basins will area expansion still play an important role
as well; in Asian basins, area is expected to slightly
contract
� Rainfed production dominates African basins—95% in
the region, 99% in the Volta
� Rainfed crop yields in African basins generally lower
compared to Asian basins (because of better rainfall
and better access to other inputs); however, yields are
also low in the Ganges
Selected Insights
� Developing countries account for almost all of future income growth and increase in food demand, including livestock demand
� Coupled with growing resource scarcity on the supply side [water, land, climate-related, energy], developing countries and basins will need to increasingly rely on net food imports
� Increasing food prices as a result of scarcity on the supply side and rapid growth on the demand side [food, & non-food] reduce access to food and increase childhood malnutrition among the poorest populations in many African and selected Asian countries [particularly those who spend > 50% of income on food]
Quantity
Quality
Agr
Env
Ind Dom
CHANGE
- Technologies
- Environment
ENVIRONMENT
- social
- legal
- political
- institutional
ENVIRONMENT
- physical
- technical
- economic
GROWTH
- Economy
- Population
- Urbanization
MOTIVATION MOTIVATION –– Increased Competition for WaterIncreased Competition for Water
Ocean
River Basin Boundary
Irrigation
Navigation
An Example of a Typical River BasinJ
Jthere is a need to understand how one
use/r affects other uses and usersJ
IndustryUrba
n
WSS
Precipitation
Recreation
HydropowerFishing
Rainfed Agr
Livestock
Forest
Rura
l
WSS
Irrigation
Groundwater
Infiltration / Recharge
Base Flow / Pumping
Groundwater Inflow
Groundwater Outflow
Runoff
Evaporation / Transpiration
Return Flow
Community
Use
Wetlands / Environment
Reservoir
Figure based on Rao 2005
• Hydrologic simulation models are important for
real-time operation of dams & river systems
• Economic optimization models are important for
investment calculations
• Optimization in simulation models is generally of
limited use for water allocation based on economic
efficiency purposes
• Economic models without sufficient hydrologic
representation are also of limited use
• Joint hydrologic-economic models can be used for
strategic decision-making in river basins
TYPES OF RIVER BASIN MODELS
Water Resources Management
Hydrology
Water
Demand
Physical
Water
Resources
Social
Environment
Solutions
Control (Hard) Technology Adaptive (Soft) Technology
Geography
Geology
Climatology
Meteorology
Ecology
II.
Politics
Economics
Sociology
Law
Institutions
I..
Water
Supply
Flood
Control
Hydro
Power... Fees
Taxes
Water
Rights
Subsi-
dies...
FeedbacksSource: Klemes, 1999
Basin (sub-basin) authority
Administrative units
(states or provinces,
counties or cities)
Irrigation
districts
Urban areas
Farms
National or
Regional agencies
National or regional policies on water
and economic development
Basin policieson multiple
purposes of water use, water supply,
hydropower, environmental
and ecological requirements,
water quality, flooding control,
capacity expansion and O&M
Inter-regional agreements on
water allocation and water trade
Inter-sectoral water allocation,
water right and markets,
water prices and O&M cost,
water use agreements,
On-farm water management
POLICY ANALYSIS AT THE BASIN LEVELPOLICY ANALYSIS AT THE BASIN LEVEL
CONCLUSIONS
• Effects of policies and
developments in one part of the
basin for the entire basin can be
analyzed
• Impacts of non-water and non-
irrigation water policies on the
basin can be examined
MODEL CHALLENGES
� Can be data-intensive to adequately model human
behavior
� Difficult, but not impossible to link water uses to
poverty outcomes
� Focus on productive water uses manipulated by
humans, and less on rainfed water management
[where a lot of poverty persists], but the latter can
be represented if it rainfed agriculture results in
changes in inflows
� Difficult but feasible to link to land cover models
� Stakeholder input is essential
� Long-term models needed to assess dynamics and
cumulative environmental impacts