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ORIGINAL ARTICLE – COLORECTAL CANCER

Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy for Rectal Cancer: Meta-analysisof Randomized Controlled Trials

Nuh N. Rahbari, MD1, Heike Elbers, MD1, Vasileios Askoxylakis, MD2, Edith Motschall3, Ulrich Bork, MD4,

Markus W. Buchler, MD1, Jurgen Weitz, MD4, and Moritz Koch, MD4

1Department of General, Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany;2Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany; 3Institute of Medical Biometry and

Medical Informatics, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany; 4Department of Gastrointestinal, Thoracic and Vascular

Surgery, University of Dresden, Dresden, Germany

ABSTRACT

Background. Although neoadjuvant radiotherapy may

improve local control of rectal cancer, its clinical value

requires further evaluation as a result of potential side

effects and advances in surgical technique. A meta-analysis

was performed to assess effectiveness and safety of neo-

adjuvant radiotherapy in the management of rectal cancer.

Methods. The following databases were searched: the

Cochrane Library, Biosis, Web of Science, Embase, ASCO

Abstracts and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry

Platform. Randomized controlled trials on the following

comparisons were included: (1) neoadjuvant therapy versus

surgery alone and (2) neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

versus neoadjuvant radiotherapy.

Results. We identified 17 and 5 relevant trials that enrol-

led 8,568 and 2,393 patients, respectively. Neoadjuvant

radiotherapy improved local control (hazard ratio 0.59;

95 % confidence interval 0.48–0.72) compared to surgery

alone even after total mesorectal excision, whereas its

benefit in overall survival just failed to reach statistical

significance (0.93; 0.85–1.00). However, it was associated

with increased perioperative mortality (1.48; 1.08–2.03), in

particular if a dose of 5 Gy per fraction was administered

(1.85; 1.23–2.78). Chemoradiotherapy improved local

control as opposed to radiotherapy (0.53; 0.39–0.72), with

no impact on perioperative outcome and long-term

survival.

Conclusions. Neoadjuvant radiotherapy improves local

control in patients with rectal cancer, particularly when

chemoradiotherapy is administered. The question if the use

of more effective chemotherapy protocols improves overall

survival warrants further investigation.

To date, several randomized controlled trials have evalu-

ated neoadjuvant radiotherapy in patients undergoing

resection for rectal cancer. These trials assessed the effec-

tiveness and safety of neoadjuvant radiotherapy per se as well

as in comparison to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Despite

the available evidence, several studies have demonstrated

marked variations in the treatment of rectal cancer patients,

even within different countries that might reflect uncertain-

ties of clinicians regarding the optimal treatment strategy.1–3

We critically reviewed the evidence for neoadjuvant

radiotherapy in patients with rectal cancer. Using a meta-

analytical approach to generate more precise effect esti-

mates, we evaluated effectiveness and safety of neoadjuvant

radiotherapy versus surgery alone and neoadjuvant radio-

therapy versus neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy.

METHODS

Literature Search and Selection Criteria

The following databases were searched in October 2011

up to the latest issue available or to the date of searching:

Nuh N. Rahbari and Heike Elbers contributed equally to this work.

Electronic supplementary material The online version of thisarticle (doi:10.1245/s10434-013-3198-9) contains supplementarymaterial, which is available to authorized users.

� Society of Surgical Oncology 2013

First Received: 27 December 2012

N. N. Rahbari, MD

e-mail: [email protected]

Ann Surg Oncol

DOI 10.1245/s10434-013-3198-9

Medline, Medline In-Process and Other Non-Indexed

Citations (via OvidSP); Cochrane Library (via Wiley In-

terscience); Web of Science, Biosis Previews (via

Thomson Reuters); Embase and Embase Alert (via DIMDI,

Deutsches Institut fur Medizinische Dokumentation und

Information); Subset ‘‘Supplied by publisher’’ (via Pub-

Med), and ASCO Annual Meetings and ASCO

Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium. For Medline, the

‘‘Cochrane Highly Sensitive Search Strategy for identify-

ing randomized trials—sensitivity- and precision-

maximizing version’’ was applied.4 In addition, ASCO

abstracts were searched, and reference lists of retrieved

relevant articles were screened for additional trials. No

language restrictions and time limits were applied. Detailed

search strategies for all databases used may be requested

from the authors. The search strategy and results of the

literature search are available upon request.

Two reviewers (N. N. R. and H. E.) independently

screened the search findings and obtained full articles in

case of potentially relevant references. Randomized con-

trolled trials that compared (1) neoadjuvant radiotherapy

followed by surgery to surgery alone and (2) neoadjuvant

chemoradiotherapy to neoadjuvant radiotherapy in the

initial management of operable rectal cancer were eligible

for inclusion. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to

report comparable data on either short or long-term out-

comes after the examined treatments. In case of multiple

publications on the same study, the most recent information

was used.

Data Extraction and Risk of Bias Assessment

A set of a priori defined data from each study were

extracted independently by two reviewers (N. N. R. and

H. E.). To enable valid comparisons of trials using different

radiotherapy schedules, the biological effective dose

(BED) was calculated for the individual trials using the

following formula considering tissue repopulation during

treatment 5:

½BED ¼ nd ð1 þ d=a=bÞ � c=a=ðT � TkÞ�

where n is the number of fractions; d is the dose per

fraction (in Gy); a/b is the linear quadratic quotient, set at

10 Gy; c/a is the repair rate, set at 0.6 Gy; T the total

treatment time (in days); and Tk is the delay time (in days),

set at 7.

Risk of bias for all studies was assessed by the modified

risk of bias tool recommended by the Cochrane Collabo-

ration and included the following items: sequence

generation, allocation concealment, handling of incomplete

data, outcome assessment, selective outcome reporting and

other sources of bias.4

Statistical Analysis

This meta-analysis was conducted in accordance with

the recommendations made by the Cochrane Collaboration

as well as the PRISMA statement.6 Hazard ratio (HR) was

used as effect measure for time-to-event outcomes [overall

survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CCS), disease-free

survival (DFS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), metastasis-

free survival (MFS), local recurrence-free survival

(LRFS)]. If the HR and associated variance was not

reported in the original trial publication, we calculated the

HR as described by Parmar et al.7,8 using a generic Excel

sheet and the statistical data provided by the authors (e.g.,

individual patient data, duration of follow-up, number of

events, p-values or survival plots). A HR value of [1

implied a worse prognosis in the neoadjuvant therapy arm

compared to the surgery-alone arm and in the neoadjuvant

chemoradiotherapy arm compared to the radiotherapy arm.

The pooled HR was calculated using the inverse-variance-

weighted average of the individual studies.9,10 Odds ratio

(OR) together with the 95 % confidence interval (CI) were

used as summary statistics for dichotomous data. Meta-

analyses were conducted using a random effects model.11

We assessed statistical heterogeneity with I2 statistics. This

method describes the proportion of total variation between

included studies that are attributable to differences between

studies rather than sampling error (chance). Statistical

heterogeneity between groups was considered relevant for

comparisons with I2 statistics of [50 %. Sensitivity anal-

yses were carried out to explore reasons for heterogeneity.

Furthermore, we performed a priori subgroup analyses. We

used funnel plot analyses to evaluate publication bias.12 All

analyses were performed by Review Manager version 5.0

software (Nordic Cochrane Centre, Copenhagen; Cochrane

Collaboration, 2008).

RESULTS

Figure 1 summarizes the selection of studies.

Neoadjuvant Therapy Versus Surgery Alone

The literature search revealed a total of 20 potentially

relevant randomized controlled trials. One trial compared

neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy to surgery alone.13 In

total, 17 trials with a cumulative sample size of 8,568

patients (median 351 patients; range 31–1,805 patients)

were included.14–30 Table 1 summarizes the baseline

characteristics of the identified studies. The clinicopatho-

logic data of the study populations and the results of the

identified studies are summarized in Table 2.

N. N. Rahbari et al.

Meta-analyses demonstrated a significant association of

neoadjuvant therapy with perioperative mortality (HR 1.48;

95 % CI 1.08–2.03; p = 0.01; I2 = 32 %) and morbidity

(HR 1.25; 95 % CI 1.02–1.54; p = 0.03; I2 = 63 %).

Subgroup analyses revealed the increased risk of periop-

erative mortality (HR 1.85; 95 % CI 1.23–2.78; p = 0.003;

I2 = 37 %) and morbidity (HR 1.42; 95 % CI 1.23–1.64;

p \ 0.001; I2 = 15 %) of being associated with a high

dose per fraction (5 Gy) rather than the total dose of

radiation (Fig. 2). Despite the increase in perioperative

morbidity and mortality, there was no significant difference

in the incidence of anastomotic leakage (HR 0.96; 95 % CI

0.58–1.60; p = 0.87; I2 = 65 %). Because of patient

overlap between the Swedish Rectal Cancer Trial and the

Stockholm II Trial, sensitivity analyses were performed

excluding the Stockholm II data. These analyses confirmed

the adverse impact of neoadjuvant therapy on perioperative

mortality in the analyses of all studies (HR 1.45; 95 % CI

1.04–2.03; p = 0.03; I2 = 36 %) and those with dose per

fraction of 5 Gy (HR 1.83; 95 % 1.16–2.89; p = 0.009;

I2 = 46 %).

There was no significant impact of neoadjuvant therapy

on overall resectability, curative resection rates and

sphincter preservation (Table 3).

On meta-analysis, the benefit of neoadjuvant therapy for

OS failed to reach statistical significance in the analyses of

all patients (HR 0.93; 95 % CI 0.85–1.00; p = 0.06;

I2 = 35 %) and the subgroup that underwent a curative

resection (HR 0.88; 95 % CI 0.78–1.00; p = 0.05;

I2 = 42 %). However, meta-analyses on CSS favored

neoadjuvant therapy in the cohort of all patients (HR 0.80;

95 % CI 0.72–0.88; p \ 0.001; I2 = 14 %) as well as those

who underwent curative resection (HR 0.71; 95 % CI 0.62–

0.80; p \ 0.001; I2 = 0 %) with a low degree of hetero-

geneity. Neoadjuvant therapy had a favorable impact on

DFS (HR 0.85; 95 % CI 0.75–0.97; p = 0.02; I2 = 24 %)

and RFS (HR 0.74; 95 % CI 0.64–0.84; p \ 0.001;

I2 = 0 %) in meta-analyses including four and five studies,

respectively. As indicated in the analysis of LRFS, this

effect was primarily caused by improved local control (HR

0.59; 0.48–0.72; p \ 0.001; I2 = 66 %) (Fig. 3). Sensi-

tivity analyses revealed heterogeneity of being caused by

the MRC1 trial that did not show a benefit of neoadjuvant

radiation on LRFS. Removal of this study resolved heter-

ogeneity entirely (HR 0.55; 95 % CI 0.49–0.63; p \ 0.001;

I2 = 0 %). Subgroup analysis showed the advantage of

neoadjuvant therapy on LRFS also for the cohort of

patients with a curative resection (HR 0.50; 95 % CI 0.43–

0.59; p \ 0.001; I2 = 0 %). Moreover, further subgroup

analyses confirmed the beneficial effect of neoadjuvant

therapy on LRFS of being independent of the radiation

scheme, stage of disease, adherence to the total mesorectal

excision (TME) technique and study quality (Table 4).

Sensitivity analyses excluding the Stockholm II data to

control for patient overlap with the Swedish Rectal Cancer

Trial did not alter the results substantially (data not shown).

Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Versus Neoadjuvant

Radiotherapy

Five studies including 2,393 patients (median 312

patients; range 83–1,011 patients) were identified that

compared neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and radiother-

apy in patients undergoing surgical resection for rectal

cancer.31–35 For one study the short-term outcomes were

available only.35 The radiotherapy protocols in the neoad-

juvant chemoradiotherapy and radiotherapy arms were

similar in three of these studies.31,33,34 In two studies,

neoadjuvant short-term radiation was compared to che-

moradiotherapy.32,35 Grade III and IV acute toxicity was

significantly increased in patients who received neoadju-

vant chemoradiotherapy (OR 4.10; 95 % CI 1.68–10.00;

p = 0.002; I2 = 81 %). The analyses of perioperative

outcomes did, however, not indicate a significant differ-

ence between neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and

radiotherapy regarding perioperative mortality (OR 1.47;

95 % CI 0.83–2.61; p = 0.19; I2 = 0 %). Although peri-

operative morbidity was increased in the radiotherapy

group (OR 0.82; 95 % CI 0.67–1.00; p = 0.05; I2 = 0 %),

there was no difference regarding the risk of anastomotic

Articles screened (n = 2324)

Articles assessed fordetailed information (n = 308)

Potentially relevant randomizedcontrolled trials (n = 25)

Included randomized controlled trials (n = 22)Neoadjuvant therapy vs. suergery alone (n = 17)Neoadjuvant radiotherapy vs. neoadjuvant chemoradiationtherapy (n = 5)

Reasons for exclusion

Not meeting inclusion criteria (n = 1278)Abstract or response/comment (n = 315)Review article (n = 423)

Reasons for exclusion

Study design (n = 185)Redundancy (n = 98)

Reasons for exclusion

Language (n = 1)Design (n = 1)Outcome reporting (n = 1)

FIG. 1 Study flow

Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy for Rectal Cancer

TA

BL

E1

Bas

elin

ech

arac

teri

stic

so

fid

enti

fied

ran

do

miz

edco

ntr

oll

edtr

ials

Tri

alS

tud

yp

erio

dT

reat

men

tsc

hed

ule

Do

sep

er

frac

tio

n,

Gy

BE

D,

Gy

RT

vo

lum

eT

ME

Fo

llo

w-u

p,

mo

nth

s

Ris

k

of

bia

s

Ran

do

miz

edco

ntr

oll

edtr

ials

of

neo

adju

van

tth

erap

yv

ersu

sn

on

eoad

juv

ant

ther

apy

MR

C1

14

19

75

–1

97

8S

ing

lefr

act

ion

(SF

)5

Gy

,1

frac

tio

n;

Mu

ltip

lefr

act

ion

(MF

)2

0G

y,

10

frac

tio

ns,

14

d;

surg

ery

wit

hin

1w

eek

afte

rR

T

SF

5 MF

:2

SF

:1

1.1

MF

:1

9.8

Pel

vis

fro

man

alm

arg

in,

18

91

5cm

(2

fiel

ds)

No

60

Hig

h

MR

C2

15

19

81

–1

98

94

0G

y,

20

frac

tio

ns,

28

d;

surg

ery

afte

ra

min

imu

mo

f4

wee

k

23

5.4

Tu

mo

rw

ith

pro

xim

alm

arg

in(5

cm),

18

91

5cm

(2fi

eld

s)

No

12

0H

igh

SR

CT

16

19

87

–1

99

02

5G

y,

5fr

acti

on

s,7

d;

surg

ery

wit

hin

1w

eek

afte

rR

T

53

7.5

An

alca

nal

,p

rim

ary

tum

or,

mes

ore

ctu

m

reg

ion

alL

Nto

L5

(3/4

fiel

ds)

No

15

6L

ow

Sto

ckh

olm

I17

19

80

–1

98

72

5G

y,

5fr

acti

on

s,5

–7

d;

surg

ery

wit

hin

1–

7d

ays

afte

rR

T

53

8.1

An

us,

rect

um

,p

erin

eum

,re

gio

nal

LN

to

L2

(2fi

eld

s)

No

14

0H

igh

Sto

ckh

olm

II18

19

87

–1

99

32

5G

y,

5fr

acti

on

s,5

–7

d;

surg

ery

wit

hin

1w

eek

afte

rR

T

53

8.1

An

alca

nal

,re

ctu

m,

mes

ore

ctu

m,

reg

ion

al

LN

up

toL

5(4

fiel

ds)

No

10

5.6

Lo

w

TM

Etr

ial1

91

99

6–

19

99

25

Gy

,5

frac

tio

ns;

surg

ery

wit

hin

10

day

s

of

the

star

to

fR

T

53

8.1

Pri

mar

ytu

mo

r,m

esen

tery

wit

hre

gio

nal

LN

up

toS

1/S

2(m

ult

iple

fiel

ds)

Yes

72

Lo

w

Dah

let

al.2

01

97

6–

19

85

31

.5G

y,

18

frac

tio

ns,

24

d;

surg

ery

2–

3w

eek

afte

rR

T

1.7

52

6.8

Pel

vis

,re

gio

nal

LN

toL

1(2

fiel

ds)

No

73

.2L

ow

NW

RC

T21

19

82

–1

98

62

0G

y,

4fr

acti

on

s,4

d;

surg

ery

wit

hin

a

wee

kaf

ter

RT

53

1.8

Po

ster

ior

pel

vis

,m

eso

rect

alL

N,

10

91

09

10

cm(3

fiel

ds)

No

96

(min

)H

igh

Rei

set

al.2

21

97

8–

19

80

40

Gy

,2

0fr

acti

on

s,2

8d

;su

rger

y1

wee

k

afte

rR

T

23

5.4

NR

No

96

Hig

h

Go

ldb

erg

etal

.23

19

80

–1

98

41

5G

y,

3fr

acti

on

s,5

–7

d;

surg

ery

2d

ays

afte

rR

T

52

3.1

S1

top

erin

eum

,1

.5cm

late

ral

top

elv

ic

sid

ew

alls

(2fi

eld

s)

No

60

(min

)L

ow

Pet

erse

net

al.2

41

98

8–

19

93

16

.5G

y,

5fr

acti

on

s,7

d;

surg

ery

wit

hin

48

haf

ter

RT

3.3

21

.9S

mal

lp

elv

is,

16

91

6cm

(2fi

eld

s)N

o4

4.1

Hig

h

VA

SA

GI2

51

96

4–

19

66

20

Gy

,1

0fr

acti

on

s,1

4d

;su

rger

yat

any

tim

eaf

ter

RT

21

9.8

Pri

mar

ytu

mo

r,re

gio

nal

LN

,an

us

toL

3,

20

92

0cm

(2fi

eld

s)

No

60

(min

)H

igh

VA

SO

GII

26

NR

31

.5G

y,

18

frac

tio

ns,

24

d;

surg

ery

imm

edia

tely

afte

rR

T

1.7

52

6.8

Pri

mar

ytu

mo

r,ad

jace

nt

LN

,b

ott

om

of

the

ob

tura

tor

fora

men

toL

2(2

fiel

ds)

No

45

Lo

w

GT

CC

Go

fth

e

EO

RT

C27

19

76

–1

98

13

4.5

Gy

,1

5fr

acti

on

s,1

9d

;su

rger

yaf

ter

RT

2.3

35

.2P

rim

ary

tum

or,

adja

cen

tL

N,

ob

tura

tor

fora

men

toL

2(2

fiel

ds)

No

36

Hig

h

Kli

ger

man

etal

.28

19

67

45

Gy

,2

5fr

acti

on

s,3

5d

;su

rger

y2

8d

ays

afte

rR

T

1.8

36

.6P

rim

ary

tum

or,

adja

cen

tL

N,

ob

tura

tor

fora

men

toL

2(2

fiel

ds)

No

NR

Hig

h

To

ron

totr

ia29

NR

5G

y,

1fr

acti

on

51

1.1

An

us

tou

pp

erb

ord

ero

fsa

cru

m,

18

91

5cm

(2fi

eld

s)

No

NR

Hig

h

Ille

ny

iet

al.3

01

97

8–

19

92

40

–5

0G

y;

surg

ery

afte

r6

wee

k2

35

.4–

42

10

91

0cm

(2fi

eld

s)N

o7

1(3

6.2

)H

igh

N. N. Rahbari et al.

TA

BL

E1

con

tin

ued

Tri

alS

tud

yp

erio

dT

reat

men

tsc

hed

ule

Do

sep

er

frac

tio

n,

Gy

BE

D,

Gy

RT

vo

lum

eT

ME

Fo

llo

w-u

p,

mo

nth

s

Ris

k

of

bia

s

Ran

do

miz

edco

ntr

oll

edtr

ials

of

neo

adju

van

tch

emo

rad

ioth

erap

yv

ersu

sn

eoad

juv

ant

rad

ioth

erap

y

Bu

jko

etal

.32

19

99

–2

00

2C

RT

:5

0.4

Gy

,2

8fr

acti

on

s5

-FU

(32

5m

g/m

2/d

),L

V(2

0m

g/m

2/d

ay)

as

rap

idin

fusi

on

on

5d

ays

inw

eek

1an

d

5o

fR

T;

surg

ery

afte

r4

–6

wee

k;

RT

:

25

Gy

,5

frac

tio

ns,

7d

CR

T:

1.8

;

RT

:5

CR

T:

39

.7;

RT

:3

7.5

1–

1.5

cmb

elo

wan

ore

ctal

jun

ctio

n(m

id

lesi

on

)o

r3

cmb

elo

wtu

mo

r(l

ow

lesi

on

)to

1cm

abo

ve

sacr

al

pro

mo

nto

ry(3

/4fi

eld

s)

Yes

48

Lo

w

FF

CD

92

03

33

19

93

–2

00

3C

RT

:4

5G

y,

25

frac

tio

ns,

35

d5

-FU

(35

0m

g/m

2;/

d),

LV

(20

mg

/m2/d

)in

20

min

du

rin

gd

;1

–5

and

29

–3

31

h

bef

ore

RT

;R

T:

45

Gy

,2

5fr

acti

on

s,3

5

d;

inb

oth

arm

ssu

rger

y3

–1

0w

eek

afte

rT

x

CR

T:

1.8

;

RT

:1

.8

CR

T:

36

.3;

RT

:3

6.3

Po

ster

ior

pel

vis

;4

–5

cmin

feri

or

of

dis

tal

tum

or

exte

nt

or

anal

ver

ge

up

to

pro

mo

nto

riu

mo

r1

cmb

elo

wfo

rd

ista

l

tum

or

(3/4

fiel

ds)

Yes

81

Lo

w

Bo

uli

s-W

assi

fet

al.

(GT

CC

G)3

41

97

2–

19

76

CR

T:

34

.5G

y,

15

frac

tio

ns,

18

d5

-FU

(37

5m

g/m

2;/

d)

infi

rst

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Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy for Rectal Cancer

TA

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N. N. Rahbari et al.

leakage (OR 1.07; 95 % CI 0.62–1.84; p = 0.81;

I2 = 0 %). Meta-analyses did, moreover, not indicate a

significant advantage of either neoadjuvant treatment

strategy with respect to overall resectability (OR 0.75;

95 % CI 0.48–1.16; p = 0.19; I2 = 0 %) and sphincter

preservation (OR 1.04 95 % CI 0.87–1.25; p = 0.65;

I2 = 7 %).

Data on OS and DFS were available for four studies.

Meta-analyses including the results of these studies

revealed no significant difference between neoadjuvant

chemoradiotherapy and radiotherapy with respect to OS

(HR 1.03; 95 % CI 0.89–1.19; p = 0.67; I2 = 0 %) and

DFS (HR 0.95; 0.84–1.07; p = 0.43; I2 = 0 %) The sim-

ilar OS and DFS were, moreover, confirmed in all

subgroups. Suitable data for the meta-analyses on LRFS

could be obtained for three studies. The pooled analysis

showed a strong advantage of neoadjuvant chemoradio-

therapy regarding LRFS (HR 0.53; 95 % CI 0.39–0.72;

p \ 0.001; I2 = 0 %). The more favorable LRFS after

neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy was also observed in the

subgroup analyses including studies with adherence to the

TME technique (HR 0.55; 95 % CI 0.38–0.80; p = 0.002;

I2 = 0 %) and low risk of bias (HR 0.53; 95 % CI 0.39–

0.72; p \ 0.001; I2 = 0 %).

Funnel plot analyses did not indicate significant publi-

cation bias (Online Appendix 1).

DISCUSSION

In contrast to previous analyses our findings show a

significantly increased risk of perioperative mortality and

morbidity in patients who received neoadjuvant treat-

ment.36,37 Remarkably, the detrimental impact of

neoadjuvant therapy on perioperative outcome was driven

primarily by studies with a high dose per fraction (5 Gy)

and was not caused by a high cumulative dose of radio-

therapy. In patients undergoing rectal resection

anastomotic leakage presents the major perioperative

FIG. 2 Meta-analyses on perioperative mortality in studies compar-

ing neoadjuvant therapy to surgery alone. a Meta-analyses including

all studies with available data. b Subgroup analyses on studies with a

radiation dose per fraction C5 Gy. Sensitivity analyses excluding the

Stockholm II data (to control for patients overlap with the Swedish

Rectal Cancer Trial) confirmed the adverse impact of neoadjuvant

therapy on perioperative mortality in the analyses of all studies (HR

1.45; 95 % CI 1.04–2.03; p = 0.03; I2 = 36 %) and those with dose

per fraction [5 Gy (HR 1.83; 95 % 1.16–2.89; p = 0.009;

I2 = 46 %)

Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy for Rectal Cancer

TA

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–1.4

8(1

.08,

2.0

3);

p=

0.0

1;

n=

15

1.2

5(1

.02,

1.5

4);

p=

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3;

n=

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0.9

6(0

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n=

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1.0

1(0

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5);

p=

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5;

n=

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0.9

9(0

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p=

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p=

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p=

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8;

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0(0

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2.0

2);

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1;

n=

4

0.9

7(0

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1.2

6);

p=

0.8

0;

n=

7

0.9

9(0

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1.1

9);

p=

0.9

2;

n=

7

0.9

9(0

.73,

1.3

4);

p=

0.9

6;

n=

4

C35.2

Gy

1.5

1(0

.88,

2.5

8);

p=

0.1

3;

n=

8

1.4

3(1

.23,

1.6

6);

p\

0.0

01;

n=

4

1.1

5(0

.64,

2.1

0);

p=

0.6

4;

n=

5

1.0

7(0

.66,

1.7

2);

p=

0.7

9;

n=

5

0.9

9(0

.85,

1.1

6);

p=

0.9

4;

n=

6

0.9

0(0

.80,

1.0

1);

p=

0.0

6;

n=

9

Tota

ldose

B25

Gy

1.7

0(1

.21,

2.4

0);

p=

0.0

02;

n=

9

1.3

5(1

.14,

1.6

0);

p\

0.0

01;

n=

6

0.9

0(0

.50,

1.6

3);

p=

0.7

2;

n=

7

1.1

1(0

.86,

1.4

5);

p=

41;

n=

7

1.0

0(0

.88,

1.1

4);

p=

1.0

;

n=

9

0.9

5(0

.85,

1.0

6);

p=

0.3

3;

n=

7

[25

Gy

0.8

6(0

.46,

1.6

0);

p=

0.6

3;

n=

6

–1.2

3(0

.48,

3.1

5);

p=

0.6

7;

n=

2

0.7

9(0

.53,

1.1

8);

p=

0.2

5;

n=

5

0.9

7(0

.75,

1.2

6);

p=

0.8

2;

n=

4

0.7

8(0

.62,

0.9

8);

p=

0.0

4;

n=

6

No.

of

frac

tions

B5

1.8

2(1

.25,

2.6

6);

p=

0.0

02;

n=

9

1.4

2(1

.23,

1.6

4);

p\

0.0

01;

n=

5

0.9

0(0

.50,

1.6

3);

p=

0.7

2;

n=

7

1.2

2(0

.89,

1.6

7);

p=

0.2

3;

n=

7

0.9

9(0

.86,

1.1

4);

p=

0.8

9;

n=

8

0.9

5(0

.84,

1.0

7);

p=

0.3

7;

n=

7

[5

0.9

5(0

.62,

1.4

4);

p=

0.8

0;

n=

7

0.8

9(0

.65,

1.2

0);

p=

0.4

40.7

9(0

.32,

1.9

4);

p=

0.6

1;

n=

3

0.8

5(0

.65,

1.1

1);

p=

0.2

4;

n=

6

0.9

4(0

.78,

1.1

3);

p=

0.5

;

n=

6

0.8

0(0

.67,

0.9

5);

p=

0.0

1;

n=

7

Dose

per

frac

tion

\5

Gy

1.0

0(0

.70,

1.4

3);

p=

0.9

8;

n=

8

0.8

9(0

.65,

1.2

0);

p=

0.4

4;

n=

2

0.6

8(0

.34,

1.3

7);

p=

0.2

8;

n=

4

0.9

3(0

.69,

1.2

4);

p=

0.6

1;

n=

6

0.9

5(0

.79,

1.1

4);

p=

0.5

7;

n=

7

0.8

4(0

.68,

1.0

3);

p=

0.0

9;

n=

7

5G

y1.8

5(1

.23,

2.7

8);

p=

0.0

03;

n=

8

1.4

2(1

.23,

1.6

4);

p\

0.0

01;

n=

5

0.9

6(0

.51,

1.8

1);

p=

0.9

1;

n=

6

1.2

3(0

.90,

1.6

9);

p=

0.2

0;

n=

6

0.9

8(0

.85,

1.1

4);

p=

0.8

2;

n=

7

0.9

3(0

.83,

1.0

5);

p=

0.2

6;

n=

6

Onse

tof

study

\1980

1.2

7(0

.90,

1.8

0);

p=

0.1

8;

n=

8

0.9

0(0

.70,

1.1

4);

p=

0.3

8;

n=

3

0.6

1(0

.06,

6.5

2);

p=

0.6

8;

n=

2

0.9

2(0

.69,

1.2

3);

p=

0.5

7;

n=

6

0.9

0(0

.74,

1.1

0);

p=

0.3

2;

n=

5

0.8

0(0

.66,

0.9

5);

p=

0.0

1;

n=

7

C1980

1.7

0(0

.99,

2.9

0);

p=

0.0

5;

n=

7

1.4

3(1

.23,

1.6

6);

p\

0.0

01;

n=

4

1.1

0(0

.69,

1.7

5);

p=

0.6

9;

n=

7

1.1

0(0

.76,

1.6

0);

p=

0.5

8;

n=

6

1.0

4(0

.90,

1.2

1);

p=

0.5

9;

n=

8

0.9

7(0

.86,

1.0

9);

p=

0.6

1;

n=

6

TM

EY

es1.2

1(0

.71,

2.0

6);

p=

0.7

1;

n=

2

–0.7

2(0

.43,

1.2

2);

p=

0.2

;

n=

2

1.6

8(0

.83,

3.3

9);

p=

0.1

5;

n=

2

1.1

6(0

.84,

1.5

9);

p=

0.3

6;

n=

2

1.2

0(0

.62,

2.3

0);

p=

0.5

9;

n=

2

No

1.3

8(0

.94,

2.0

1);

p=

0.1

0;

n=

13

1.2

5(0

.95,

1.6

4);

p=

0.1

1;

n=

6

1.0

6(0

.56,

2.0

1);

p=

0.8

5;

n=

7

0.9

3(0

.74,

1.1

8);

p=

0.5

4;

n=

10

0.9

7(0

.86,

1.1

0);

p=

0.6

4;

n=

11

0.8

9(0

.79,

1.0

0);

p=

0.0

5;

n=

11

Ran

dom

ized

contr

oll

edtr

ials

of

neo

adju

van

tch

emora

dio

ther

apy

ver

sus

neo

adju

van

tra

dio

ther

apy

All

pat

ients

1.4

7(0

.83,

2.6

1);

p=

0.1

9;

n=

4

0.8

2(0

.67,

1.0

0);

p=

0.0

5;

n=

4

1.0

7(0

.62,

1.8

4);

p=

0.8

1;

n=

4

0.7

5(0

.48,

1.1

6);

p=

0.1

9;

n=

4

1.2

3(0

.77,

1.9

7);

p=

0.3

9;

n=

2

1.0

4(0

.87,

1.2

5);

p=

0.6

5;

n=

5

Stu

dy

des

ign

RT

regim

en

iden

tica

l

1.5

7(0

.87,

2.8

3);

p=

0.1

3;

n=

3

0.8

4(0

.63,

1.1

3);

p=

0.2

5;

n=

2

1.0

8(0

.51,

2.2

8);

p=

0.8

4;

n=

2

0.7

2(0

.38,

1.3

3);

p=

0.2

9;

n=

3

–1.0

7(0

.85,

1.3

5);

p=

0.5

8;

n=

3

RT

regim

en

dif

fere

nt

–0.6

8(0

.43,

1.0

9);

p=

0.2

5;

n=

2

1.0

6(0

.48,

2.3

4);

p=

0.8

9;

n=

2

––

1.0

4(0

.57,

1.9

2);

p=

0.9

;

n=

2

Onse

tof

study

B1993

1.5

7(0

.87,

2.8

3);

p=

0.1

3;

n=

3

0.8

4(0

.63,

1.1

3);

p=

0.2

5;

n=

2

1.0

8(0

.51,

2.2

8);

p=

0.8

4;

n=

2

0.9

7(0

.53,

1.7

5);

p=

0.9

1;

n=

2

–1.0

7(0

.85,

1.3

5);

p=

0.5

8;

n=

3

[1993

–0.6

8(0

.43,

1.0

9);

p=

0.1

1;

n=

2

1.0

6(0

.48,

2.3

4);

p=

0.8

9;

n=

2

0.5

4(0

.28,

1.0

5);

p=

0.0

7;

n=

2

–0.9

4(0

.74,

1.2

0);

p=

0.6

3;

n=

2

TM

EY

es0.8

8(0

.33,

2.3

1);

p=

0.7

9;

n=

2

0.7

2(0

.54,

0.9

7);

p=

0.0

3;

n=

2

0.9

4(0

.51,

1.7

3);

p=

0.8

4;

n=

2

0.5

4(0

.28,

1.0

5);

p=

0.0

7;

n=

2

–0.9

1(0

.72,

1.1

7);

p=

0.4

7;

n=

2

No

1.9

4(0

.95,

3.9

6);

p=

0.0

7;

n=

2

––

0.9

7(0

.53,

1.7

5);

p=

0.9

1;

n=

2

–1.2

4(0

.79,

1.9

5);

p=

0.3

4;

n=

2

Dat

aar

epre

sente

das

HR

(95

%C

I),

p-v

alue

and

num

ber

of

incl

uded

studie

s

Adas

hin

dic

ates

no

anal

yse

sfe

asib

ledue

tola

ckof

even

ts

BE

Dbio

logic

alef

fect

ive

dose

,R

Tra

dio

ther

apy,

CR

Tch

emora

dio

ther

apy,

TM

Eto

tal

mes

ore

ctal

exci

sion

N. N. Rahbari et al.

complication.38 However, its impact on long-term outcome

remains controversial.39,40 It is an interesting finding of this

study that perioperative mortality was increased in patients

with preoperative radiotherapy despite no difference in the

incidence of anastomotic leakage. These data should

prompt further effort to further investigate the reasons of

perioperative death.

The notion that the increased perioperative risk is pri-

marily caused by early studies with less advanced

perioperative care is rebutted by our subgroup analyses

showing no adverse impact of neoadjuvant therapy on

perioperative mortality (and morbidity) in studies with an

onset before 1980. Still, the toxicity results might be

influenced by treatment-related factors that are not inclu-

ded in the analysis. Target volume definition, radiation

field size, as well as the applied irradiation technique are

known to affect treatment toxicity. Previous analyses

revealed that the increased postoperative mortality and

higher incidence of late bowel obstruction reported in the

Stockholm I trial were associated with the large radiation

volume including paraaortic lymph node regions.41,42

However, analogous to surgical developments, major

advances in radiotherapy approaches have been achieved,

facilitating a more accurate target definition and precise

dose delivery. Therefore, actual trials using modern

radiotherapy strategies (e.g., intensity-modulated radio-

therapy) need to be evaluated in future trials.

One might argue that the increased perioperative risk of

neoadjuvant therapy may be justified by a strong prog-

nostic benefit. Indeed, the present meta-analyses revealed a

more favorable CSS and LRFS for patients receiving

neoadjuvant therapy. Current guidelines recommend neo-

adjuvant radiotherapy for patients with uT3/4 and/or node-

positive disease.43,44 However, it is still not completely

clear which patients benefit from preoperative treatment

and to what extent. In four studies stratified data on LRFS

were reported for patients’ stage of disease.16–19 Our

analyses showed a benefit of neoadjuvant therapy for

patients with stage I, II and III disease, though the effect

was more pronounced in patients with stage II and III

tumors. These data support current guidelines. The poten-

tial side effects of radiotherapy and the high proportion of

patients who might be cured by radical surgery alone still

do not justify neoadjuvant therapy in patients with stage I

disease.41,45,46 The value of neoadjuvant therapy in patients

with an adequate circumferential resection margin has been

particularly controversial. In accordance with previous

data, our subgroup analyses confirmed the favorable results

FIG. 3 Meta-analyses on a overall survival and b local recurrence-free survival in studies comparing neoadjuvant therapy to surgery alone

Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy for Rectal Cancer

TA

BL

E4

Met

a-an

alyse

sof

long-t

erm

outc

om

es

Char

acte

rist

icV

aria

ble

Over

all

surv

ival

Can

cer-

spec

ific

surv

ival

Dis

ease

-fre

esu

rviv

alM

etas

tasi

s-fr

eesu

rviv

alL

oca

lre

curr

ence

-fre

esu

rviv

al

Ran

dom

ized

contr

oll

edtr

ials

of

neo

adju

van

tth

erap

yver

sus

no

neo

adju

van

tth

erap

y

Cohort

All

pat

ients

0.9

3(0

.85,

1.0

0),

p=

0.0

6;

n=

12

0.8

0(0

.72,

0.8

8),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

70.8

5(0

.75,

0.9

7),

p=

0.0

2;

n=

40.9

1(0

.83,

1.0

0),

p=

0.0

5;

n=

80.5

9(0

.48,

0.7

2),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

10

Cura

tive

rese

ctio

n0.8

8(0

.78,

1.0

0),

p=

0.0

5;

n=

70.7

1(0

.62,

0.8

0),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

40.8

2(0

.68,

1.0

0),

p=

0.0

5;

n=

30.8

4(0

.73,

0.9

5),

p=

0.0

08;

n=

60.5

0(0

.43,

0.5

9),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

8

Sta

ge

of

dis

ease

UIC

CI

1.0

9(0

.87,

1.3

7),

p=

0.4

5;

n=

3–

0.8

7(0

.67,

1.1

5),

p=

0.3

3;

n=

21.0

5(0

.55,

1.9

9),

p=

0.8

9;

n=

20.4

2(0

.26,

0.6

8),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

4

UIC

CII

0.9

5(0

.75,

1.2

2),

p=

0.7

1;

n=

3–

–0.7

2(0

.47,

1.1

0),

p=

0.1

3;

n=

20.4

3(0

.31,

0.6

0),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

4

UIC

CII

I0.9

3(0

.71,

1.2

0),

p=

0.5

6;

n=

4–

–0.9

5(0

.74,

1.2

2),

p=

0.6

8;

n=

20.5

1(0

.41,

0.6

4),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

4

BE

D\

35.2

Gy

0.9

2(0

.79,

1.0

7),

p=

0.2

7;

n=

60.8

9(0

.72,

1.1

0),

p=

0.2

6;

n=

2–

1.0

0(0

.82,

1.2

2),

p=

0.9

9;

n=

20.6

0(0

.35,

1.0

4),

p=

0.0

7;

n=

4

C35.2

Gy

0.9

2(0

.83,

1.0

3),

p=

0.1

4;

n=

60.7

7(0

.69,

0.8

6),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

50.8

7(0

.75,

1.0

0),

p=

0.0

5;

n=

30.8

9(0

.80,

0.9

9),

p=

0.0

3;

n=

60.5

6(0

.49,

0.6

5),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

6

Tota

ldose

B25

Gy

0.9

3(0

.85,

1.0

3),

p=

0.1

5;

n=

90.8

1(0

.72,

0.9

0),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

60.9

0(0

.75,

1.0

7),

p=

0.2

2;

n=

20.9

3(0

.84,

1.0

3),

p=

0.1

6;

n=

60.5

7(0

.44,

0.7

4),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

8

[25

Gy

0.9

2(0

.81,

1.0

5),

p=

0.2

3;

n=

4–

0.7

5(0

.59,

0.9

4),

p=

0.0

1;

n=

20.7

8(0

.54,

1.1

2),

p=

0.1

8;

n=

20.6

6(0

.51,

0.8

6),

p=

0.0

02;

n=

2

No.

of

frac

tions

B5

0.9

3(0

.85,

1.0

3),

p=

0.1

5;

n=

90.8

1(0

.72,

0.9

0),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

60.9

0(0

.75,

1.0

7),

p=

0.2

2;

n=

20.9

3(0

.84,

1.0

3),

p=

0.1

6;

n=

60.5

7(0

.44,

0.7

4),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

8

[5

0.9

2(0

.81,

1.0

5),

p=

0.2

3;

n=

40.8

7(0

.60,

1.2

4),

p=

0.4

4;

n=

20.7

5(0

.59,

0.9

4),

p=

0.0

1;

n=

20.8

6(0

.68,

1.1

1),

p=

0.2

5;

n=

30.7

9(0

.57,

1.1

0),

p=

0.1

6;

n=

3

Dose

per

frac

tion

\5

0.8

8(0

.74,

1.0

5),

p=

0.1

5;

n=

50.8

7(0

.60,

1.2

4),

p=

0.4

4;

n=

20.7

5(0

.59,

0.9

4),

p=

0.0

1;

n=

20.8

6(0

.68,

1.1

1),

p=

0.2

5;

n=

30.7

4(0

.53,

1.0

4),

p=

0.0

8;

n=

4

50.9

5(0

.88,

1.0

3),

p=

0.2

3;

n=

80.8

1(0

.72,

0.9

0),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

60.9

0(0

.75,

1.0

7),

p=

0.2

2;

n=

20.9

3(0

.84,

1.0

3),

p=

0.1

6;

n=

60.5

8(0

.44,

0.7

6),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

7

Onse

tof

study

\1980

0.9

9(0

.85,

1.1

4),

p=

0.8

4;

n=

4–

–0.9

7(0

.79,

1.1

9),

p=

0.7

6;

n=

20.8

4(0

.53,

1.3

4),

p=

0.4

7;

n=

2

C1980

0.9

0(0

.81,

1.0

0),

p=

0.0

6;

n=

80.7

7(0

.69,

0.8

5),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

60.8

7(0

.75,

1.0

0),

p=

0.0

5;

n=

30.9

0(0

.81,

1.0

0),

p=

0.0

4;

n=

60.5

4(0

.47,

0.6

2),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

8

TM

EY

es0.7

7(0

.43,

1.3

8),

p=

0.3

8;

n=

2–

––

0.5

1(0

.37,

0.7

0),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

2

No

0.9

3(0

.86,

1.0

1),

p=

0.0

8;

n=

10

0.8

0(0

.71,

0.9

0),

p\

0.0

01;

n=

60.8

5(0

.69,

1.0

5),

p=

0.1

3;

n=

30.9

2(0

.82,

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N. N. Rahbari et al.

of neoadjuvant radiotherapy in patients who received a

curative resection.47 Interestingly, neoadjuvant radiother-

apy was also associated with a benefit in OS in these

patients. Moreover, the analyses on patients with TME

further support the notion that neoadjuvant therapy

improves local control even after adequate surgical

resection.

In line with two recent Cochrane reviews our pooled

analyses demonstrated the advantage of chemoradiotherapy

for local control but failed to show a benefit in overall and

disease-free survival.48,49 However, in none of the trials

modern combination chemotherapy protocols were applied.

Despite the survival benefit of oxaliplatin and irinotecan in

combination with 5-fluorouracil/leucovorin in adjuvant

therapy of colon cancer, the results of recently published

studies on modern chemotherapy protocols in the neoad-

juvant setting of patients with primary rectal cancer are

controversial and not yet completed.50–54 On the basis of

the results of our analyses showing increased acute toxicity

with additional chemotherapy, a further adverse impact of

more effective combination therapy on toxicity must be

considered. However, the available data of standard 5-flu-

orouracil-based chemoradiotherapy did not indicate a

detrimental impact of chemoradiotherapy on perioperative

morbidity and mortality. Further controlled clinical trials

are required to identify agents that in combination with

radiotherapy improve systemic disease control in patients

with rectal cancer.

In conclusion, the present systematic review and meta-

analyses showed a favorable impact of neoadjuvant

radiotherapy on local recurrence in rectal cancer patients.

The increased perioperative mortality in patients with

short-course radiotherapy should prompt further strategies

to enhance the risk–benefit ratio. As neoadjuvant chemo-

radiotherapy improved LRFS compared to neoadjuvant

radiotherapy with no benefit in long-term survival the

results of further studies are required to evaluate, if more

active chemotherapy protocols or targeted therapy in the

neoadjuvant setting prolong survival after curative

resection.

DISCLOSURE The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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