+ All Categories
Home > Documents > IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

Date post: 16-Aug-2015
Category:
Upload: rik-van-bogaert
View: 51 times
Download: 4 times
Share this document with a friend
Popular Tags:
46
1567 28 Polar Regions Coordinating Lead Authors: Joan Nymand Larsen (Iceland), Oleg A. Anisimov (Russian Federation) Lead Authors: Andrew Constable (Australia), Anne B. Hollowed (USA), Nancy Maynard (USA), Pål Prestrud (Norway), Terry D. Prowse (Canada), John M.R. Stone (Canada) Contributing Authors: Terry V. Callaghan (UK), Mark Carey (USA), Peter Convey (UK), Andrew Derocher (Canada), Bruce C. Forbes (Finland), Peter T. Fretwell (UK), Solveig Glomsrød (Norway), Dominic Hodgson (UK), Eileen Hofmann (USA), Grete K. Hovelsrud (Norway), Gita L. Ljubicic (Canada), Harald Loeng (Norway), Eugene Murphy (UK), Steve Nicol (Australia), Anders Oskal (Norway), James D. Reist (Canada), Phil Trathan (UK), Barbara Weinecke (Australia), Fred Wrona (Canada) Review Editors: Maria Ananicheva (Russian Federation), F. Stuart Chapin III (USA) Volunteer Chapter Scientist: Vasiliy Kokorev (Russian Federation) This chapter should be cited as: Larsen, J.N., O.A. Anisimov, A. Constable, A.B. Hollowed, N. Maynard, P. Prestrud, T.D. Prowse, and J.M.R. Stone, 2014: Polar regions. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1567-1612.
Transcript
Page 1: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1567

28 Polar Regions

Coordinating Lead Authors:Joan Nymand Larsen (Iceland), Oleg A. Anisimov (Russian Federation)

Lead Authors:Andrew Constable (Australia), Anne B. Hollowed (USA), Nancy Maynard (USA), Pål Prestrud(Norway), Terry D. Prowse (Canada), John M.R. Stone (Canada)

Contributing Authors:Terry V. Callaghan (UK), Mark Carey (USA), Peter Convey (UK), Andrew Derocher (Canada),Bruce C. Forbes (Finland), Peter T. Fretwell (UK), Solveig Glomsrød (Norway), Dominic Hodgson(UK), Eileen Hofmann (USA), Grete K. Hovelsrud (Norway), Gita L. Ljubicic (Canada),Harald Loeng (Norway), Eugene Murphy (UK), Steve Nicol (Australia), Anders Oskal (Norway),James D. Reist (Canada), Phil Trathan (UK), Barbara Weinecke (Australia), Fred Wrona(Canada)

Review Editors:Maria Ananicheva (Russian Federation), F. Stuart Chapin III (USA)

Volunteer Chapter Scientist:Vasiliy Kokorev (Russian Federation)

This chapter should be cited as:Larsen, J.N., O.A. Anisimov, A. Constable, A.B. Hollowed, N. Maynard, P. Prestrud, T.D. Prowse, and J.M.R. Stone, 2014:

Polar regions. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contributionof Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R.,C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova,B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1567-1612.

Page 2: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

28

1568

Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................................................... 1570

28.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................... 1572

28.2. Observed Changes and Vulnerability under Multiple Stressors ........................................................................... 1572

28.2.1. Hydrology and Freshwater Ecosystems ........................................................................................................................................... 1572

28.2.1.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1572

28.2.1.2. Antarctic .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1573

28.2.2. Oceanography and Marine Ecosystems .......................................................................................................................................... 1574

28.2.2.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1574

28.2.2.2. Antarctica ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1576

28.2.3. Terrestrial Ecosystems ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1577

28.2.3.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1577

28.2.3.2. Antarctica ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1581

28.2.4. Health and Well-being of Arctic Residents ...................................................................................................................................... 1581

28.2.4.1. Direct Impacts of a Changing Climate on the Health of Arctic Residents ........................................................................ 1581

28.2.4.2. Indirect Impacts of Climate Change on the Health of Arctic Residents ............................................................................ 1582

28.2.5. Indigenous Peoples and Traditional Knowledge .............................................................................................................................. 1583

28.2.6. Economic Sectors ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1584

28.2.6.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1584

28.2.6.2. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean ................................................................................................................................. 1585

28.3. Key Projected Impacts and Vulnerabilities ........................................................................................................... 1586

28.3.1. Hydrology and Freshwater Ecosystems ........................................................................................................................................... 1586

28.3.1.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1586

28.3.1.2. Antarctica ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1586

28.3.2. Oceanography and Marine Ecosystems .......................................................................................................................................... 1587

28.3.2.1. Ocean Acidification in the Arctic and Antarctic ................................................................................................................ 1587

28.3.2.2. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1587

28.3.2.3. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean ................................................................................................................................. 1589

28.3.3. Terrestrial Environment and Related Ecosystems ............................................................................................................................ 1589

28.3.3.1. Arctic ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1589

28.3.3.2. Antarctica ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1590

28.3.4. Economic Sectors ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1590

28.3.4.1. Fisheries .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1590

28.3.4.2. Forestry and Farming ....................................................................................................................................................... 1591

28.3.4.3. Infrastructure, Transportation, and Terrestrial Resources ................................................................................................. 1591

Table of Contents

Page 3: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1569

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

28.4. Human Adaptation ................................................................................................................................................ 1593

28.5. Research and Data Gaps ....................................................................................................................................... 1595

References ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1596

Frequently Asked Questions

28.1: What will be the net socioeconomic impacts of change in the polar regions? ............................................................................... 1595

28.2: Why are changes in sea ice so important to the polar regions? ...................................................................................................... 1596

Page 4: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1570

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Executive Summary

Additional and stronger scientific evidence has accumulated since the AR4 that reinforces key findings made in the Fourth Assessment Report

(AR4).

The impacts of climate change, and the adaptations to it, exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity in the polar regions because of the

high diversity of social systems, biophysical regions, and associated drivers of change (high confidence). {28.2.2} For example, the

tree line has moved northward and upward in many, but not all, Arctic areas (high confidence) and significant increases in tall shrubs and

grasses have been observed in many places (very high confidence). {28.2.3.1.2}

Some marine species will shift their ranges in response to changing ocean and sea ice conditions in the polar regions (medium

confidence). The response rate and the spatial extent of the shifts will differ by species based on their vulnerability to change and their life

history. {28.2.2, 28.3.2} Loss of sea ice in summer and increased ocean temperatures are expected to impact secondary pelagic production in

some regions of the Arctic Ocean, with associated changes in the energy pathways within the marine ecosystem (medium confidence). These

changes are expected to alter the species composition of zooplankton in some regions, with associated impacts on some fish and shellfish

populations (medium confidence). {28.2.2.1} Also, changes in sea ice and the physical environment to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula are

altering phytoplankton stocks and productivity, and krill (high confidence). {28.2.2.2}

Climate change is impacting terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in some areas of Antarctica and the Arctic. This is due to

ecological effects resulting from reductions in the duration and extent of ice and snow cover and enhanced permafrost thaw (very high

confidence), and through changes in the precipitation-evaporation balance (medium confidence). {28.2.1, 28.2.3}

The primary concern for polar bears over the foreseeable future is the recent and projected loss of annual sea ice cover, decreased

ice duration, and decreased ice thickness (high confidence). Of the two subpopulations where data are adequate for assessing abundance

effects, it is very likely that the recorded population declines are caused by reductions in sea ice extent. {28.2.2.1.2, 28.3.2.2.2}

Rising temperatures, leading to the further thawing of permafrost, and changing precipitation patterns have the potential to

affect infrastructure and related services in the Arctic (high confidence). {28.3.4.3} Particular concerns are associated with damage to

residential buildings resulting from thawing permafrost, including Arctic cities; small, rural settlements; and storage facilities for hazardous

materials. {28.2.4-5}

In addition, there is new scientific evidence that has emerged since the AR4.

The physical, biological, and socioeconomic impacts of climate change in the Arctic have to be seen in the context of often

interconnected factors that include not only environmental changes caused by drivers other than climate change but also

demography, culture, and economic development. Climate change has compounded some of the existing vulnerabilities caused by these

other factors (high confidence). {28.2.4-5, 28.4} For example, food security for many Indigenous and rural residents in the Arctic is being

impacted by climate change, and in combination with globalization and resource development food insecurity is projected to increase in the

future (high confidence). {28.2.4}

The rapid rate at which climate is changing in the polar regions will impact natural and social systems (high confidence) and may

exceed the rate at which some of their components can successfully adapt (low to medium confidence). {28.2.4, 28.4} The decline

of Arctic sea ice in summer is occurring at a rate that exceeds most of the earlier generation model projections (high confidence), and evidence

of similarly rapid rates of change is emerging in some regions of Antarctica. {WGI AR5 Chapters 4, 5, 9} In the future, trends in polar regions of

populations of marine mammals, fish, and birds will be a complex response to multiple stressors and indirect effects (high confidence). {28.3.2}

Already, accelerated rates of change in permafrost thaw, loss of coastal sea ice, sea level rise, and increased weather intensity are forcing

relocation of some Indigenous communities in Alaska (high confidence). {28.2.4.2, 28.2.5, 28.3.4}

Page 5: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1571

28

Polar Regions Chapter 28

Shifts in the timing and magnitude of seasonal biomass production could disrupt matched phenologies in the food webs, leading

to decreased survival of dependent species (medium confidence). If the timing of primary and secondary production is no longer

matched to the timing of spawning or egg release, survival could be impacted, with cascading implications to higher trophic levels. This impact

would be exacerbated if shifts in timing occur rapidly (medium confidence). {28.2.2, 28.3.2} Climate change will increase the vulnerability of

terrestrial ecosystems to invasions by non-indigenous species, the majority likely to arrive through direct human assistance (high confidence).

Ocean acidification has the potential to inhibit embryo development and shell formation of some zooplankton and krill in the

polar regions, with potentially far-reaching consequences to food webs in these regions (medium confidence). Embryos of Antarctic

krill have been shown to be vulnerable to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the water (high confidence). As well, there is

increasing evidence that pelagic molluscs (pteropods) are vulnerable to ocean acidification (medium confidence). {28.2.2, 28.3.2}

There is increased evidence that climate change will have large effects on Arctic communities, especially where narrowly based

economies leave a smaller range of adaptive choices. {28.2.6.1, 28.4} Some commercial activities will become more profitable while

others will face decline. Increased economic opportunities are expected with increased navigability in the Arctic Ocean and the expansion of

some land- and freshwater-based transportation networks. {28.2.6.1.3, 28.3.4.3} The informal, subsistence-based economy will be impacted

(high confidence). There is high confidence that changing sea ice conditions may result in more difficult access for hunting marine mammals.

{28.2.6.1.6} Although Arctic residents have a history of adapting to change, the complex interlinkages among societal, economic, and political

factors and climatic stresses represent unprecedented challenges for northern communities, particularly if the rate of change will be faster than

the social systems can adapt (high confidence). {28.2.5, 28.4}

Impacts on the health and well-being of Arctic residents from climate change are significant and projected to increase—especially

for many Indigenous peoples (high confidence). {28.2.4} These impacts are expected to vary among the diverse settlements, which range

from small, remote, predominantly Indigenous communities to large cities and industrial settlements (high confidence), especially those in

highly vulnerable locations along ocean and river shorelines. {28.2.4}

Page 6: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1572

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

28.1. Introduction

Several recent climate impact assessments on polar regions have beenundertaken, including the synthesis report on Snow, Water, Ice andPermafrost in the Arctic (AMAP, 2011a), the State of the Arctic Coast2010 (2011) reports, the Antarctic Climate and the Environment (Turneret al., 2009, 2013), Arctic Resilience Interim Report 2013 (2013), andthe findings of the International Polar Year (IPY; Krupnick et al., 2011).These reports draw a consistent pattern of climate-driven environmental,societal, and economic changes in the polar regions in recent decades.In this chapter, we use the scientific literature, including these reports,to consolidate the assessment of the impacts of climate change on polarregions from 2007, advance new scientific evidence of impacts, andidentify key gaps in knowledge on current and future impacts. PreviousIPCC reports define the Arctic as the area within the Arctic Circle (66ºN),and the Antarctic as the continent with surrounding Southern Oceansouth of the polar front, which is generally close to 58ºS (IPCC, 2007).For the purpose of this report we use the conventional IPCC definitionsas a basis, while incorporating a degree of flexibility when describingthe polar regions in relation to particular subjects.

Changes in the physical and chemical environments of the polar regionsare detailed in the WGI contribution to the AR5. There is evidence thatArctic land surface temperatures have warmed substantially since themid-20th century, and the future rate of warming is expected to exceedthe global rate. Sea ice extent at the summer minimum has decreasedsignificantly in recent decades, and the Arctic Ocean is projected tobecome nearly ice free in summer within this century. The duration ofsnow cover extent and snow depth are decreasing in North America while

increasing in Eurasia. Since the late 1970s, permafrost temperatureshave increased between 0.5°C and 2°C. In the Southern Hemisphere,the strongest rates of atmospheric warming are occurring in the westernAntarctic Peninsula (WAP, between 0.2°C and 0.3°C per decade) andthe islands of the Scotia Arc, where there have also been increases inoceanic temperatures and large regional decreases in winter sea iceextent and duration. Warming, although less than WAP, has also occurredin the continental margins near the Bellingshausen Sea, Prydz Bay, andthe Ross Sea, with areas of cooling in between. Land regions haveexperienced glacial recession and changes in the ice and permafrosthabitats in the coastal margins. The Southern Ocean continues to warm,with increased freshening at the surface due to precipitation leading toincreased stratification. In both polar regions, as a result of acidification,surface waters will become seasonally corrosive to aragonite withindecades, with some regions being affected sooner than others (seeBox CC-OA; WGI AR5 Chapter 6). Observations and models indicate thatthe carbon cycle of the Arctic and Southern Oceans will be impacted byclimate change and increased carbon dioxide (CO2).

28.2. Observed Changes and Vulnerabilityunder Multiple Stressors

28.2.1. Hydrology and Freshwater Ecosystems

28.2.1.1. Arctic

Arctic rivers and lakes continue to show pronounced changes to theirhydrology and ecology. Previously noted increases in Eurasian Arctic

Sea-bed depths

Shipping route

September sea ice

Tree line

Continuous permafrost

Glaciated land

Non-glaciated land

3000+1000500–7000 –1000–3000–5000

Depth (m) Height (m)

–200 200 2000

Figure 28-1| Location maps of the north and south polar regions (courtesy of P. Fretwell, British Antarctic Survey).

Page 7: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1573

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

river flow (1936–1999; Peterson et al., 2002) could not, for a similarperiod (1951–2000), be attributed with certainty to precipitationchanges (Milliman et al., 2008) but has been, including more recentextreme increases (2007), attributed to enhanced poleward atmosphericmoisture transport (Zhang et al., 2013). By contrast, decreased flow inhigh-latitude Canadian rivers (1964–2000; average –10%) does matchthat for precipitation (Déry and Wood, 2005). Recent data (1977–2007)for 19 circumpolar rivers also indicate an area-weighted average increaseof +9.8% (–17.1 to 47.0%; Overeem and Syvitski, 2010) accompaniedby shifts in flow timing, with May snowmelt increasing (avg. 66%) butflow in the subsequent month of peak discharge decreasing (~7%).Across the Russian Arctic, dates of spring maximum discharge have alsostarted to occur earlier, particularly in the most recent (1960–2001)period analyzed (average –5 days; range for four regions +0.2 to –7.1days), but no consistent trend exists for magnitude (average –1%; range+21 to –24%; Shiklomanov et al., 2007). Earlier timing was most pro-nounced in eastern, colder continental climates, where increases in airtemperature have been identified as the dominant control (Tan et al.,2011).

Increases have also occurred in winter low flows for many Eurasian andNorth American rivers (primarily in the late 20th century; Smith et al.,2007; Walvoord and Striegl, 2007; St. Jacques and Sauchyn, 2009; Ye etal., 2009), the key exceptions being decreases in eastern North Americaand unchanged flow in small basins of eastern Eurasia (Rennermalmet al., 2010). Most such studies suggest permafrost thaw (WGI AR5Chapter 4) has increased winter flow, whereas others suggest increasesin net winter precipitation minus evapotranspiration (Rawlins et al.,2009a,b; Landerer et al., 2010). Insufficient precipitation stations precludedeciphering the relative importance of these factors (WGI AR5 Section2.5.1).

The surface-water temperatures of large water bodies has warmed(1985–2009; Schneider and Hook, 2010), particularly for mid- and highlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, with spatial patterns generallymatching those for air temperature. Where water bodies warmed morerapidly than air temperature, decreasing ice cover was suggested asenhancing radiative warming. Paleolimnological evidence indicates thatthe highest primary productivity was associated with warm, ice-freesummer conditions and the lowest with periods of perennial ice (Melleset al., 2007). Increasing water temperatures affect planktonic and benthicbiomass and lead to changes in species composition (Christoffersen etal., 2008; Heino et al., 2009, Jansson et al., 2010). Reduced ice coverwith higher air temperatures and evaporation are responsible for thelate-20th to early-21st century desiccation of some Arctic ponds (Smoland Douglas, 2007).

Changes have occurred in the size and number of permafrost lakes overthe last half-century (Hinkel et al., 2007; Marsh et al., 2009), but theirpatterns and rates of change are not consistent because of differingthawing states, variations in warming, and effects of human activities(Hinket et al., 2007; Prowse and Brown, 2010a). Thawing permafrostaffects the biogeochemistry of water entering lakes and rivers (Frey andMcClelland, 2009; Kokelj et al., 2009) and their ecological structure andfunction (Lantz and Kokelj, 2008; Thompson et al., 2008; Mesquita etal., 2010), such as enhancing eutrophication by a shift from pelagic tobenthic-dominated production (Thompson et al., 2012).

The aquatic ecosystem health and biodiversity of northern deltas isdependent on combined changes in the elevation of spring river ice-jam floods and sea level (Lesack and Marsh, 2007, 2010). Diminishingice shelves (last half-century) have also caused a decline in the numberof freshwater epishelf lakes that develop behind them (Veillette et al.,2008; Vincent et al., 2009). Although such biophysical dependencieshave been established, temporal trends in such river-delta and epishelflake impacts and their linkages to changing climate remain to bequantified precisely.

An interplay of freshwater-marine conditions also affects the timing,growth, run size, and distribution of several Arctic freshwater andanadromous fish. Key examples include the timing of marine exit of YukonRiver Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha; 1961–2009) variedwith air and sea temperatures and sea ice cover (Mundy and Evenson,2011); the growth of young-of-year Arctic cisco (Coregonus autumnalis;1978–2004) varied in response to lagged sea ice concentration andMackenzie River discharge, also indicating that decreased sea iceconcentration and increased river discharge enhanced marine primaryproduction, leading to more favorable foraging conditions (von Biela etal., 2011); and factors that influence the water level and freshening ofrivers, as well as the strength, duration, and directions of prevailingcoastal winds, affect survival of anadromous fishes during coastalmigration and their subsequent run size (Fechhelm et al., 2007).

28.2.1.2. Antarctic

Biota of Antarctic freshwater systems (lakes, ponds, short streams,and seasonally wetted areas) are dominated by benthic microbialcommunities of cyanobacteria and green algae in a simple food web.Mosses occur in some continental lakes with higher plants absent.Planktonic ecosystems are typically depauperate and include small algae,bacteria, and colorless flagellates, with few metazoans and no fish(Quesada and Velázquez, 2012). Recent compilations of single-year datasets have reinforced previous conclusions on the changing freshwaterhabitats in Antarctica (Verleyen et al., 2012). In regions where the climatehas warmed, the physical impacts on aquatic ecosystems include loss ofice and perennial snow cover, increasing periods of seasonal open water,increased water column temperatures, and changes in water columnstratification. In some areas, a negative water balance has occurred asa result of increased temperature and changes in wind strength drivingenhanced evaporation and sublimation and leading to increased salinityin lakes in recent decades (Hodgson et al., 2006a). In other areas,especially glacial forelands, increased temperatures have led to greatervolumes of seasonal meltwater in streams and lakes together withincreased nutrient fluxes (high confidence). In both cases, the balancebetween precipitation and evaporation can have detectable effects onlake ecosystems (medium confidence) through changes in water bodyvolume and lake chemistry (Lyons et al., 2006; Quesada et al., 2006).Non-dilute lakes with a low lake depth to surface area ratio are mostsusceptible to interannual and inter-decadal variability in the waterbalance, as measured by changes in specific conductance (high confidence;Verleyen et al., 2012). Warming in the northwestern Antarctic Peninsularegion has resulted in permafrost degradation in the last approximately50 years, impacting surface geomorphology and hydrology (Bockheimet al., 2013) with the potential to increase soil biomass.

Page 8: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1574

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

28.2.2. Oceanography and Marine Ecosystems

28.2.2.1. Arctic

28.2.2.1.1. Marine plankton, fish, and other invertebrates

WGI documented the expected physical and chemical changes that willoccur in Arctic marine ecosystems (WGI AR5 Chapters 4, 6, 11). Naturallyoccurring interannual, decadal, and multi-decadal variations in climatewill continue to influence the Arctic Ocean and its neighboring high-latitude seas (Chapter 5). In recent years (2007–2012), ocean conditionsin the Bering Sea have been cold (Stabeno et al., 2012a), while theBarents Sea has been warm (Lind and Ingvaldsen, 2012).

In this section, we build on previous reviews of observed species responsesto climate (Wassman et al., 2011) to summarize the current evidenceof the impact of physical and chemical changes in marine systems onthe phenology, spatial distribution, and production of Arctic marinespecies. For each type of response, the implications for phytoplankton,zooplankton, fish, and shellfish are discussed. The implications of thesechanges on marine ecosystem structure and function will be the resultof the synergistic effects of all three types of biological responses.

Phenological response

The timing of spring phytoplankton blooms is a function of seasonal light,hydrographic conditions, and the timing of sea ice breakup (Wassman,2011). In addition to the open water phytoplankton bloom, potentiallylarge ice algal blooms can form under the sea ice (Arrigo, 2012). Duringthe period 1997–2009, a trend toward earlier phytoplankton bloomswas detected in approximately 11% of the area of the Arctic Ocean(Kahru et al., 2011). This advanced timing of annual phytoplanktonblooms coincided with decreased sea ice concentration in early summer.Brown and Arrigo (2013) studied the timing and intensity of springblooms in the Bering Sea from 1997 to 2010 and found that in northernregions sea ice consistently retreated in late spring and was associatedwith ice-edge blooms, whereas in the southern regions the timing ofsea ice retreat varied, with ice-edge blooms associated with late iceretreat, and open water blooms associated with early ice retreat. Giventhe short time series and limited studies, there is medium confidencethat climate variability and change has altered the timing and theduration of phytoplankton production.

The life cycles of calanoid copepods in the Arctic Ocean and Barents Seaare timed to utilize ice algal and phytoplankton blooms (Falk-Petersenet al., 2009; Søreide et al., 2010; Darnis et al., 2012). Based on asynthesis of existing data, Hunt, Jr. et al. (2011) hypothesized that, inthe southeastern Bering Sea, ocean conditions and the timing of seaice retreat influences the species composition of dominant zooplankton,with lipid-rich copepods being more abundant in cold years.

There is ample evidence that the timing of spawning and hatching ofsome fish and shellfish is aligned to match larval emergence withseasonal increases in prey availability (Gjosaeter et al., 2009; Vikebø etal., 2010; Bouchard and Fortier, 2011; Drinkwater et al., 2011). Theseregional phenological adjustments to local conditions occurred over

many generations (Ormseth and Norcross, 2009; Geffen et al., 2011;Kristiansen et al., 2011). There is medium to high confidence that climate-induced disruptions in this synchrony can result in increased larval orjuvenile mortality or changes in the condition factor of fish and shellfishspecies in the Arctic marine ecosystems.

Observed spatial shifts

Spatial heterogeneity in primary production has been observed (Lee etal., 2010; Grebmeier, 2012). Simulation modeling studies show thatspatial differences in the abundance of four species of copepod can beexplained by regional differences in the duration of the growing seasonand temperature (Ji et al., 2012). Retrospective studies based on surveysfrom 1952 to 2005 in the Barents Sea revealed that changes in thespecies composition, abundance, and distribution of euphausiids wererelated to climate-related changes in oceanographic conditions (Zhukovaet al., 2009).

Retrospective analysis of observed shifts in the spatial distribution offish and shellfish species along latitudinal and depth gradients showedobserved spatial shifts were consistent with expected responses ofspecies to climate change (Simpson et al., 2011; Poloczanska et al.,2013; see also Box CC-MB). Retrospective studies from the Bering Sea,Barents Sea, and the northeast Atlantic Ocean and Icelandic watersshowed that fish shift their spatial distribution in response to climatevariability (i.e., interannual, decadal, or multi-decadal changes in oceantemperature; Mueter and Litzow, 2008; Sundby and Nakken, 2008;Hátún et al., 2009; Valdimarsson et al., 2012; Kotwicki and Lauth, 2013).There are limits to the movement potential of some species. Vulnerabilityassessments indicate that the movement of some sub-Arctic fish andshellfish species into the Arctic Ocean may be impeded by the presenceof water temperatures on the shelves that fall below their thermaltolerances (Hollowed et al., 2013; Hunt, Jr. et al., 2013). Coupledbiophysical models have reproduced the observed spatial dynamics ofsome the species in the Bering and Barents Seas, and are being used toexplain the role of climate variability and change on the distributionand abundance of some species (Huse and Ellingsen, 2008; Parada etal., 2010). In summary, there is medium to high confidence based onobservations and modeling that some fish and shellfish have shifted theirdistribution in response to climate impacts on the spatial distributionand volume of suitable habitat.

Observed variations in production

Seasonal patterns in light, sea ice cover, freshwater input, stratification,and nutrient exchange act in concert to produce temporal cycles of icealgal and phytoplankton production in Arctic marine ecosystems(Perrette et al., 2011; Wassmann, 2011; Tremblay et al., 2012). Satelliteobservations and model estimates for the period 1988–2007 showedthat phytoplankton productivity increased in the Arctic Ocean in responseto a downward trend in the extent of summer sea ice (Zhang et al.,2010). Satellite data provided evidence of a 20% increase in annual netprimary production in the Arctic Ocean between 1998 and 2009 inresponse to extended ice-free periods (Arrigo and van Dijken, 2011).Regional trends in primary production will differ in response to the

Page 9: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1575

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

amount of open water area in summer (Arrigo and van Dijken, 2011).Other studies showed gross primary production increased with increasingair temperature in the Arctic Basin and Eurasian shelves (Slagstad etal., 2011). A recent 5-year study (2004–2008) in the Canada Basinshowed that smaller phytoplankton densities were higher than largerphytoplankton densities in years when sea surface temperatures (SSTs)were warmer, the water column was more stratified, and nutrients weremore depleted during the Arctic summer (Li et al., 2009; Morán et al.,2010). Additional observations will help to resolve observed differencesbetween in situ and satellite-derived estimates of primary production(Matrai et al., 2013). In conclusion, based on recent observations andmodeling, there is medium to high confidence that primary productionhas increased in the Arctic Ocean in response to changes in climateand its impact on the duration and areal extent of ice-free periods insummer.

Regional differences in zooplankton production have been observed.During a period of ocean warming (1984–2010), Dalpadado et al. (2012)observed an increase in the biomass of lipid-rich euphausiids in theBarents Sea and relatively stable levels of biomass and production ofCalanus finmarchicus. In the Bering Sea, observations over the mostrecent decade in the southeast Bering Sea showed C. marshallae weremore abundant in cold than in warm years (Coyle et al., 2011).

There is strong evidence that climate variability impacts the year-classstrength of Arctic marine fish and shellfish through its influence onpredation risk; the quality, quantity, and availability of prey; andreproductive success (Mueter et al., 2007; Bakun 2010; Drinkwater etal., 2010). Regional differences in the species responses to climatechange will be a function of the exposure of the species to changingenvironmental conditions, the sensitivity of the species to these changes(Beaugrand and Kirby, 2010), and the abilities of species to adapt tochanging conditions (Pörtner and Peck, 2010; Donelson et al., 2011).There is high confidence that shifts in ocean conditions have impactedthe abundance of fish and shellfish in Arctic regions. Observed trends inthe abundance of commercial fish and shellfish may also be influencedby historical patterns of exploitation (Vert-pre et al., 2013).

28.2.2.1.2. Marine mammals, polar bears, and seabirds

Studies on responses of Arctic and subarctic marine mammals to climatechange are limited and vary according to insight into their habitatrequirements and trophic relationships (Laidre et al., 2008). Many Arcticand sub-Arctic marine mammals are highly specialized, have long lifespans, and are poorly adapted to rapid environmental change (Mooreand Huntington, 2008), and changes may be delayed until significantsea ice loss has occurred (Freitas et al., 2008; Laidre et al., 2008).

Climate change effects on Arctic and sub-Arctic marine mammalspecies will vary by life history, distribution, and habitat specificity (highconfidence). Climate change will improve conditions for a few species,have minor negative effects for others, and some will suffer majornegative effects (Laidre et al., 2008; Ragen et al., 2008). Climate changeresilience will vary and some ice-obligate species should survive inregions with sufficient ice and some may adapt to ice-free conditions(Moore and Huntington, 2008). Less ice-dependent species may be more

adaptable but an increase in seasonally migrant species could increasecompetition (Moore and Huntington, 2008).

Climate change vulnerability was associated with feeding specialization,ice dependence, and ice reliance for prey access and predator avoidance(Laidre et al., 2008). There is medium agreement on which species’ lifehistories are most vulnerable. Hooded seals (Cystophora cristata) andnarwhal (Monodon monoceros) were identified as most at risk andringed seals (Pusa hispida) and bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) asleast sensitive (Laidre et al., 2008). Kovacs et al. (2010) shared concernfor hooded seals and narwhal but had concerns for ringed seals andbearded seals. Narwhal may have limited ability to respond to habitatalteration (Williams et al., 2011). Species that spend only part of theyear in the Arctic (e.g., gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus), killer whale(Orcinus orca)) may benefit from reduced ice (Laidre et al., 2008; Moore,2008; Higdon and Ferguson, 2009; Matthews et al., 2011; Ferguson etal., 2012). Killer whale expansion into the Arctic could cause a trophiccascade (Higdon and Ferguson, 2009), although there is limited evidenceat this time.

There is limited evidence although medium agreement that generalistsand pelagic feeding species may benefit from increased marine productivityfrom reduced ice while benthic feeding species near continental shelfhabitats may do poorly (Bluhm and Gradinger, 2008). There is limitedevidence but high agreement that dietary or habitat specialists will dopoorly with reduced ice. Reduction of summer/autumn ice was the primaryextrinsic factor affecting Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus), withpredictions of distribution changes, reduced calf recruitment, and longerterm predictions of high extinction probability (Cooper et al., 2006;MacCracken, 2012). Summer ice retreat may make migration to suchhabitats energetically unprofitable for ringed seals (Freitas et al., 2008).Ice loss threatens Baltic ringed seals (Kovacs and Lydersen, 2008). InHudson Bay, earlier spring break-up and changes in snow cover overlairs have reduced ringed seal recruitment (Ferguson et al., 2005).Changes in snowfall over the 21st century were projected to reduceringed seal habitat for lairs by 70% (Hezel et al., 2012). Similarly, harpseal (Pagophilus groenlandicus) breeding habitat was affected bychanging ice conditions that could reduce pup survival (Bajzak et al.,2011). Although there is limited evidence, there are concerns that climatechange may cause indirect effects on Arctic marine mammals’ health(e.g., pathogen transmission, food web changes, toxic chemical exposure,shipping, and development; Burek et al., 2008).

Empirical studies provide direct insight into the mechanisms of climatechange impact on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) but modeling allowspredictive capacity (Amstrup et al., 2010; Hunter et al., 2010; Durner etal., 2011; Castro de la Guardia et al., 2013).

Polar bears are highly specialized and use annual ice over the continentalshelves as their preferred habitat (Durner et al., 2009; Miller et al., 2012).The recent and projected loss of annual ice over continental shelves,decreased ice duration, decreased ice thickness, and habitat fragmentationare causing reduced food intake, increased energy expenditure, andincreased fasting in polar bears (high confidence; Stirling and Parkinson,2006; Regehr et al., 2007; Durner et al., 2009; Amstrup et al., 2010;Hunter et al., 2010; Derocher et al., 2011; Rode et al., 2012; Sahanatienand Derocher, 2012; Castro de la Guardia et al., 2013).

Page 10: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1576

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Subpopulation response varies geographically. Only 2 of the 19subpopulations—Western Hudson Bay (Regehr et al., 2007) and thesouthern Beaufort Sea (Regehr et al., 2010; Rode et al., 2010a)—havedata series adequate for clear identification of abundance effects relatedto climate change. Many other subpopulations show characteristicsassociated with decline but some remain stable. Declining ice is causinglower body condition, reduced individual growth rates, lower fastingendurance, lower reproductive rates, and lower survival (high confidence;Regehr et al., 2007, 2010; Rode et al., 2010a, 2012; Molnar et al., 2011).Condition is a precursor to demographic change (very high confidence;Hunter et al., 2010; Regehr et al., 2010; Rode et al., 2010a; Robinson etal., 2011). The decline in the subpopulation in Western Hudson Bay by21% between 1987 and 2004 was related to climate change (mediumconfidence; Regehr et al., 2007). Replacement of multi-year ice byannual ice could increase polar bear habitat (low confidence; Derocheret al., 2004). Increasing the distance to multi-year ice and terrestrialrefugia at maximal melt may result in drowning, cub mortality, andincreased energetic costs (Monnett and Gleason, 2006; Durner et al.,2011; Pagano et al., 2012). There is robust evidence of changes in seaice conditions changing polar bear distribution including den areas (highconfidence; Fischbach et al., 2007; Schliebe et al., 2008; Gleason andRode, 2009; Towns et al., 2010; Derocher et al., 2011). The number ofhuman-bear interactions is projected to increase with warming (highconfidence; Stirling and Parkinson, 2006; Towns et al., 2009).

Use of terrestrial resources by polar bears was suggested as adaptive(Dyck et al., 2007, 2008; Dyck and Romberg, 2007; Armstrong et al.,2008; Dyck and Kebreab, 2009; Rockwell and Gormezano, 2009; Smithet al., 2010). Polar bears cannot adapt to terrestrial foods (Stirling etal., 2008b; Amstrup et al., 2009; Rode et al., 2010b; Slater et al., 2010),and will most likely not be able to adapt to climate change and reducedsea ice extent (very high confidence). Changing ice conditions are linkedto cannibalism (Amstrup et al., 2006), altered feeding (Cherry et al.,2009), unusual hunting behavior (Stirling et al., 2008a), and diet change(Iverson et al., 2006; Thiemann et al., 2008) (medium confidence).

Upwelling or subsurface convergence areas found in frontal zones andeddies, and the marginal ice zone, are associated with high marineproductivity important to Arctic seabirds (e.g., Irons et al., 2008). Long-term or permanent shifts in convergence areas and the marginal ice-edge zone induced by climate change may cause mismatch betweenthe timing of breeding and the peak in food availability, and thuspotentially have strong negative impacts on seabird populations (mediumconfidence; Gaston et al., 2005, 2009; Moline et al., 2008; Grémillet andBoulinier, 2009).

The contrasting results from the relatively few studies of impacts ofclimate change on Arctic seabirds demonstrate that future impacts willbe highly variable between species and between populations of thesame species (medium confidence). Retreating sea ice and increasingSSTs have favored some species and disadvantaged others (Gaston etal., 2005; Byrd et al., 2008; Irons et al., 2008; Karnovsky et al., 2010;Fredriksen et al., 2013). Some species of seabirds respond to a widerange of sea surface temperatures via plasticity of their foragingbehavior, allowing them to maintain their fitness levels (Grémillet et al.,2012). Phenological changes and changes in productivity of somebreeding colonies have been observed (Byrd et al., 2008; Gaston and

Woo, 2008; Moe et al., 2009). Negative trends in population size,observed over the last few decades for several species of widespreadArctic seabirds, may be related to over-harvesting and pollution as wellas climate change effects (Gaston, 2011). For those species whosedistribution is limited by sea ice and cold water, polar warming couldbe beneficial (Mehlum, 2012).

A major ecosystem shift in the northern Bering Sea starting in the mid-1990s caused by increased temperatures and reduced sea ice cover hada negative impact on benthic prey for diving birds, and these populationshave declined in the area (Grebmeier et al., 2006). More recently, theBering Sea has turned colder again.

28.2.2.2. Antarctica

Productivity and food web dynamics in the Southern Ocean are dominatedby the extreme seasonal fluctuations of irradiance and the dynamics ofsea ice, along with temperature, carbonate chemistry, and verticalmixing (Massom and Stammerjohn, 2010; Boyd et al., 2012; Murphy etal., 2012a). Moreover, there is large-scale regional variability in habitats(Grant et al., 2006) and their responses to climate change. Antarctickrill, Euphausia superba (hereafter, krill), is the dominant consumer,eating diatoms, and, in turn, is the main prey of fish, squid, marinemammals, and seabirds. Krill is dominant from the Bellingshausen Seaeast through to the Weddell Sea and the Atlantic sector of the SouthernOcean (Rogers et al., 2012). In the East Indian and southwest Pacificsectors of the Southern Ocean, the krill-dominated system lies to thesouth of the Southern Boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(Nicol et al., 2000a,b) while to the north copepods and myctophid fishare most important (Rogers et al., 2012). Further west, where theWeddell Sea exerts an influence, krill are found as far north as the Sub-Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (Jarvis et al., 2010). Where sea icedominates for most of the year, ice-obligate species (e.g., Euphausiacrystallorophias and Peluragramma antarcticum) are most important(Smith et al., 2007).

Few studies were available in AR4 to document and validate thechanges in these systems resulting from climate change. Those studiesreported increasing abundance of benthic sponges and their predators,declining populations of krill, Adélie and emperor penguins, and Weddellseals, and a possible increase in salps, noting some regional differencesin these trends. The importance of climate processes in generating thesechanges could not be distinguished from the indirect consequences ofthe recovery of whale and seal populations from past over-exploitation(Trathan and Reid, 2009; Murphy et al., 2012a,b).

28.2.2.2.1. Marine plankton, krill, fish, and other invertebrates

Distributions of phytoplankton and zooplankton have moved south withthe frontal systems (Hinz et al., 2012; Mackey et al., 2012), includingrange expansion into the Southern Ocean from the north by thecoccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi (Cubillos et al., 2007) and the red-tide dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans (McLeod et al., 2012) (mediumconfidence). There is insufficient evidence to determine whether otherrange shifts are occurring.

Page 11: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1577

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

Collapsing ice shelves are altering the dynamics of benthic assemblagesby exposing areas previously covered by ice shelves, allowing increasedprimary production and establishment of new assemblages (e.g., collapseof the Larson A/B ice shelves) (medium confidence; Peck et al., 2009;Gutt et al., 2011). More icebergs are grounding, causing changes inlocal oceanography and declining productivity that consequently affectsproductivity of benthic assemblages (low confidence; Thrush andCummings, 2011). Iceberg scour on shallow banks is also increasing,disrupting resident benthic assemblages (medium confidence; Barnesand Souster, 2011; Gutt et al., 2011).

Primary production is changing regionally in response to changes in seaice, glacial melt, and oceanographic features (medium confidence;Arrigo et al., 2008; Boyd et al., 2012). Off the west Antarctic Peninsula,phytoplankton stocks and productivity have decreased north of 63°S,but increased south of 63°S (high confidence; Montes-Hugo et al., 2009;Chapter 6). This study (based on time series of satellite-derived andmeasured chlorophyll concentrations) also indicated a change fromdiatom-dominated assemblages to ones dominated by smallerphytoplankton (Montes-Hugo et al., 2009). The reduced productivity inthe north may be tempered by increased inputs of iron through changesto ocean processes in the region (low confidence; Dinniman et al., 2012).

Since the 1980s, Antarctic krill densities have declined in the Scotia Sea(Atkinson et al., 2004), in parallel with regional declines in the extentand duration of winter sea ice (Flores et al., 2012). Uncertainty remainsover changes in the krill population because this decline was observedusing net samples and is not reflected in acoustic abundance time series(Nicol and Brierley, 2010); the observed changes in krill density mayhave been partly a result of changes in distribution (Murphy et al.,2007). Nevertheless, given its dependence on sea ice (Nicol et al., 2008),the krill population may already have changed and will be subject tofurther alterations (high confidence).

The response of krill populations is probably a complex response tomultiple stressors. Decreases in recruitment of post-larval krill acrossthe Scotia Sea have been linked to declines in sea ice extent in theAntarctic Peninsula region (medium confidence; Wiedenmann et al., 2009)but these declines may have been offset by increased growth arisingfrom increased water temperature in that area (Wiedenmann et al.,2008). However, near South Georgia krill productivity may have declinedas a result of the increased metabolic costs of increasing temperatures(low confidence; Hill et al., 2013). The combined effects of changing seaice, temperature, and food have not been investigated.

28.2.2.2.2. Marine mammals and seabirds

In general, many Southern Ocean seals and seabirds exhibit strongrelationships to a variety of climate indices, and many of these relationshipsare negative to warmer conditions (low confidence; Trathan et al., 2007;Barbraud et al., 2012; Forcada et al., 2012). Regional variations in climatechange impacts on habitats and food will result in a mix of direct andindirect effects on these species. For example, Adélie penguin coloniesare declining in recent decades throughout the Antarctic Peninsula whilethe reduction in chinstrap penguins is more regional (Lynch et al., 2012)and related to reductions in krill availability (Lima and Estay, 2013). In

contrast, gentoo penguins are increasing in that region and expandingsouth (high confidence; Lynch et al., 2012). This may be explained by thereduced sea ice habitats and krill availability in the north, resulting in asouthward shift of krill predators, particularly those dependent on seaice (Forcada et al., 2012) and the replacement of these predators in thenorth by species that do not depend on sea ice, such as gentoo penguinsand elephant seals (low confidence; Costa et al., 2010; Trivelpiece et al.,2011; Ducklow et al., 2012; Murphy et al., 2013). A contrasting situationis in the Ross Sea, where Adélie penguin populations have increased(Smith, Jr. et al., 2012). The mechanisms driving these changes arecurrently under review and may be more than simply sea ice (Lynch etal., 2012; Melbourne-Thomas et al., 2013). For example, too much ortoo little sea ice may have negative effects on the demography of Adélieand emperor penguins (see Barbraud et al., 2012, for review). Also,increased snow precipitation that accumulates in breeding colonies candecrease survival of chicks of Adélie penguins when accompanied byreduced food supply (Chapman et al., 2011).

Changes elsewhere are less well known. Some emperor penguincolonies have decreased in recent decades (low confidence; Barbraudet al., 2008; Jenouvrier et al., 2009), and one breeding site has beenrecorded as having been vacated (Trathan et al., 2011). However, thereis insufficient evidence to make a global assessment of their currenttrend. In the sub-Antarctic of the Indian sector, reductions in seal andseabird populations may indicate a region-wide shift to a system withlower productivity (low confidence; Weimerskirch et al., 2003; Jenouvrieret al., 2005a,b) but commercial fishing activities may also play a role.

Where frontal systems are shifting south, productive foraging areas alsomove to higher latitudes. In the Indian sector, this is thought to becausing declines in king penguin colonies on sub-Antarctic islands (lowconfidence; Péron et al., 2010), while the shift in wind patterns may becausing changes to the demography of albatross (low confidence;Weimerskirch et al., 2012).

As identified in the WGII AR4, some species’ populations may suffer as aresult of fisheries while others are recovering from past over-exploitation,either of which may confound interpretation of the response of thesespecies and their food webs to climate change. The recovery of Antarcticfur seals on some sub-Antarctic islands has been well documented, andtheir populations may now be competing with krill-eating macaronipenguins (Trathan et al., 2012). More recently, there has been confirmationthat populations of some Antarctic whales are recovering, such ashumpbacks (Nicol et al., 2008; Zerbini et al., 2010), suggesting that foodis currently not limiting. In contrast, a number of albatross and petrelpopulations are declining as a result of incidental mortality in longlinefisheries in southern and temperate waters where these birds forage(Croxall et al., 2012).

28.2.3. Terrestrial Ecosystems

28.2.3.1. Arctic

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems have undergone dramatic changesthroughout the late Pleistocene and Holocene (last 130,000 years),mainly driven by natural climate change. Significant altitudinal and

Page 12: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1578

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

latitudinal advances and retreats in tree line have been common, animalspecies have gone extinct, and animal populations have fluctuatedsignificantly throughout this period (e.g., Lorenzen et al., 2011; Salonenet al., 2011; Mamet and Kershaw, 2012).

28.2.3.1.1. Phenology

Phenological responses attributable to warming are apparent in mostArctic terrestrial ecosystems (medium confidence). They vary from earlieronset and later end of season in western Arctic Russia (Zeng et al., 2013),to little overall trend in plant phenology in the Swedish sub-Arctic(Callaghan et al., 2010), to dramatic earlier onset of phenophases inGreenland (Høye et al., 2007; Post et al., 2009a; Callaghan et al., 2011a;see Figure 28-2).

28.2.3.1.2. Vegetation

The latest assessment of changes in Normalized Difference VegetationIndex (NDVI), a proxy for plant productivity, from satellite observationsbetween 1982 and 2012 shows that about a third of the Pan-Arctic has

substantially greened, less than 4% browned, and more than 57% didnot change significantly (Xu et al., 2013; Figure 28-3). The greatestincreases reported in recent years were in the North American high Arctic,along the Beaufort Sea and the east European Arctic (Zhang et al., 2008;Pouliot et al., 2009; Bhatt et al., 2010; Forbes et al., 2010; Walker et al.,2011; Epstein et al., 2012; Macias-Fauria et al., 2012; Xu et al., 2013).

The positive trends in NDVI are associated with increases in the summerwarmth index (sum of the monthly mean temperatures above freezingexpressed as degrees Celsius per month) that have increased on averageby 5°C per month for the Arctic as a whole (Xu et al., 2013). However,the even greater 10°C to 12°C per month increase for the land adjacentto the Chukchi and Bering Seas (Figure 28-3) was associated withdecreases in NDVI. On the Yamal Peninsula in Russia the pattern of NDVIis partly due to surface disturbance, such as landslide activity (Walkeret al., 2009). Small rodent cycles reduce NDVI in sub-Arctic Sweden, bydecreasing biomass and changing plant species composition (Olofssonet al., 2012). The changing NDVI signal should therefore generally beinterpreted with care.

In common with tree line trees and herbs, the abundance and biomassof deciduous shrubs and graminoids (grasses and grass-like plants) have

–60 –50 –40 –30 –20 –10 0 10 20 30

Cassiope tetragona

Papaver radicatum

Salix arctica

Saxifraga oppositifolia

Silene acaulis

Acari*

5 years

Statistically significant

Statistically insignificant

6 years

7 years

8 years

9 years

10 years

Chironomidae

Coccoidea

Collembola*

Culic idae

Ichneumonidae

Linyphiidae*

Lycosidae

Muscidae

Nymphalidae

Phoridae

Sciaridae

Dunlin

Sanderling

Ruddy turnstone

Dryas sp.

Plants

Arthropods

Birds

Mean phenological change (days per decade)

Number of years of data available for the calculation of each

temporal trend

* = likely biased

Figure 28-2 | Temporal change in onset of flowering (plants), median date of emergence (arthropods), and clutch initiation dates (birds) estimated from weekly sampling in permanents plots (plants and arthropods) and near-daily surveys through the breeding period in a 19 km2 census area (birds) during 1996–2005 in high-Arctic Greenland. Trends based on 5 to 10 years of observations are red circles when statistically significant and otherwise blue. Trends in arthropod taxa marked by asterisks (*) are likely to be biased (Høye et al., 2007).

Page 13: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1579

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

increased substantially in certain parts of the Arctic tundra in recentyears, but remained stable or decreased in others (very high confidence).Attribution for the increases and decreases in deciduous shrubs andgraminoids is heterogeneous, with drivers varying among differentregions (very likely), including Arctic warming, differences in herbivory,industrial development, legacies from past land use, and changes inmoisture (Post and Pedersen, 2008; Forbes et al., 2009, 2010; Kitti etal., 2009; Olofsson et al., 2009; Callaghan et al., 2011b, 2013; Kumpulaet al., 2011, 2012; Myers-Smith et al., 2011; Elmendorf et al., 2012b;Gamon et al., 2013).

Shrubs have generally expanded their ranges and/or growth over thelast 20 years (Danby and Hik, 2007; Hudson and Henry, 2009; Forbes etal., 2010; Hallinger et al., 2010; Callaghan et al., 2011b; Hedenås et al.,2011; Hill and Henry, 2011; Myers-Smith et al., 2011a,b; Rundqvist etal., 2011; Elmendorf et al., 2012a,b; Macias-Fauria et al., 2012), andhave varied from dramatic, that is, 200% area increase in study plots(Rundqvist et al., 2011) in sub-Arctic Sweden, to early invasion of a fellfield community on west Greenland by low shrubs (Callaghan et al.,2011a).

A synthesis (61 sites; Elmendorf et al., 2012a) of experimental warmingstudies of up to 20 years duration in tundra sites worldwide showed,overall, increased growth of deciduous shrubs and graminoids, decreasedcover of mosses and lichens, and decreased species diversity andevenness. Elmendorf et al. (2012a) point out that the groups thatincreased most in abundance under simulated warming were graminoidsin cold regions and primarily shrubs in warm regions of the tundra.However, strong heterogeneity in responses to the experimentalwarming suggested that other factors could moderate the effects ofclimate warming significantly, such as herbivory, differences in soilnutrients and pH, precipitation, winter temperatures and snow cover,and species composition and density.

Snow bed habitats have decreased in sub-Arctic Sweden (Björk and Molau,2007; Hedenås et al., 2011). In other plant communities, changes havebeen less dramatic, ranging from small increases in species richness in thesouth west Yukon of the Canadian sub-Arctic (Danby et al., 2011), throughsubtle changes in plant community composition in west and southeastGreenland (Callaghan et al., 2011a; Daniëls and De Molenaar, 2011) to70-year stability of a plant community on Svalbard (Prach et al., 2010).

>2 1 0 –1 –2 –2.9 –3.9 –4.8 –5.7 –6.5 <–7.4

<–2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 >8

Trend in seasonality with respect to 1982 (% per decade)

Trend in PAP mean NDVI with respect to 1982 (% per decade)

120°E

150°E

180°E

150°W

120°W

90°W

90°E

60°E

60°W

30°E

30°W

90°N

75°N65°N

55°N45°N

Figure 28-3 | Significant changes (p < 0.01) in photosynthetically active period (PAP) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) between 1982 and 2012 (Xu et al., 2013).

Page 14: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1580

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

The responses to Arctic warming of lichen and bryophyte (mosses)diversity have been heterogeneous, varying from consistent negativeeffects to significant increases in recent years (Hudson and Henry, 2009;Tømmervik et al., 2009, 2012). Forbes and Kumpula (2009) recorded long-term and widespread lichen degradation in northern Finland attributedmore to trampling of dry lichens by reindeer in summer than to winterconsumption as forage.

Palaeorecords of vegetation change indicate that the northern tree lineshould extend upward and northward during current climate warming(Callaghan et al., 2005) because tree line is related to summer warmth(e.g., Harsch et al., 2009). Although the tree line has moved northwardand upward in many Arctic areas, it has not shown a general circumpolarexpansion in recent decades (high confidence).

Model projections that suggest a displacement of between 11 and 50%of tundra by forest by 2100 (see references in Callaghan et al., 2005)and shifts upslope by 2 to 6 m yr–1 (Moen et al., 2004) and northwardsby 7.4 to 20 km yr–1 (Kaplan and New, 2006) might be overestimatingrate of tree line advance by a factor of up to 2000 (Van Bogaert et al.,2011). The fastest upslope shifts of tree lines recorded during 20th centurywarming are 1 to 2 m yr–1 (Shiyatov et al., 2007; Kullman and Öberg, 2009)whereas the fastest so-far recorded northward-migrating tree line replacestundra by taiga at a rate of 3 to 10 m yr–1 (Kharuk et al., 2006). In someareas, the location of the tree line has not changed or has changed veryslowly (Payette, 2007; MacDonald et al., 2008). A global study by Harschet al. (2009) showed that only 52% of 166 global tree line sites studiedhad advanced over the past 100 years. In many cases the tree line haseven retreated (Cherosov et al., 2010). At the small scale, the tree linehas shown increase, decrease, and stability in neighboring locations(Lloyd et al., 2011; Van Bogaert et al., 2011).

Evidence for densification of the forest at the sub-Arctic tree line isrobust and consistent within Fennoscandia (Tømmervik et al., 2009;Hedenås et al., 2011; Rundqvist et al., 2011) and Canada (Danby and Hik,2007). Dendroecological studies indicate enhanced conifer recruitmentduring the 20th century in the northern Siberian taiga (Briffa et al.,2008). Some of the changes are dramatic, such as an increase in areaof mountain birch in study plots in northern Sweden by 600% between1977/1998 and 2009/2010 (Rundqvist et al., 2011) and a doubling oftree biomass in Finnmarksvidda in northern Norway since 1957(Tømmervik et al., 2009). However, model projections of displacementof deciduous forest by evergreen forest (Wolf et al., 2008; Wramnebyet al., 2010) have not so far been validated.

Where the mountain birch tree line has increased in elevation and shrub(e.g., willow, dwarf birch) abundance has increased, the response canbe an interaction between climate warming, herbivory pressure, andearlier land use (Olofsson et al., 2009; Hofgaard et al., 2010; Van Bogaertet al., 2011). In Fennoscandia and Greenland, heavy grazing by largeherbivores may significantly check deciduous low erect shrub (e.g.,dwarf shrub and willow) growth (Post et al., 2008; Kitti et al., 2009;Olofsson et al., 2009).

Less moisture from snow and more rain now favors broadleaf trees overconifers and mosses in some areas (Juday, 2009) while moisture deficitsare reducing the growth of some northern forests (Goetz et al., 2005;

Verbyla, 2008; Yarie, 2008) and making them more susceptible to insectpest outbreaks (see references in Callaghan et al., 2011c). Death oftrees through drought stress or insect pest activity will increase theprobability of fire, which will have positive feedbacks (increase warming)on the climate (Mack et al., 2011).

28.2.3.1.3. Changes in animal populations

The documented collapse or dampening of population cycles of volesand lemmings over the last 20 to 30 years in parts of Fennoscandia andGreenland (Schmidt et al., 2012) can be attributed with high confidenceto climate change (Ims et al., 2007, 2011; Gilg et al., 2009; Kausrud etal., 2009). A shortening of the snow season and more thaw and/or rainevents during the winter will have an effect on the subnivean space,which provides thermal insulation, access to food, and protection frompredators (Berg et al., 2008; Kausrud et al., 2009; Johansson et al., 2011).However, the causes of the changes in the lemming and vole cycles arestill being debated as factors other than climate change may also be ofimportance (Brommer et al., 2010; Krebs, 2011).

Climate-mediated range expansion both in altitude and latitude of insectpests, and increased survival due to higher winter temperatures, has beendocumented for bark beetles in North America (Robertson et al., 2009)and for geometrid moths in Fennoscandia (Jepsen et al., 2008, 2011;Callaghan et al., 2010), causing more extensive forest damage thanbefore. Outbreaks of insect pests such as geometrid moths can evenreduce the strengths of CO2 sinks in some areas (Heliasz et al., 2011).

The decline in wild reindeer and caribou (both Rangifer tarandus)populations in some regions of about 30% over the last 10 to 15 yearshas been linked both to climate warming and anthropogenic landscapechanges (Post et al., 2009a; Vors and Boyce, 2009; Russell and Gunn,2010). Even though most of the Arctic has warmed, the decline in thepopulations has not been uniform. Some of the North American large,wild herds have, for example, declined by 75 to 90%, while other wildherds and semi-domestic herds in Fennoscandia and Russia have beenstable or even increased (Forbes et al., 2009; Gunn et al., 2009; Vorsand Boyce, 2009; Forbes, 2010; Joly et al., 2011; Kumpula et al., 2012).

The expected and partially observed increased primary productivity ofArctic tundra may potentially increase the supply of food for Arcticungulates. However, the overall quality of forage may decline duringwarming, for example, if the nitrogen content of key fodder species forungulates were to drop during warming (Turunen et al., 2009;Heggberget et al., 2010), while lichen biomass, an important winter fodderfor reindeer, is decreasing over parts of the Arctic region. Herbivory alsochanges the vegetation itself in concert with the warming, furthercomplicating the prediction of vegetation changes and their impacts onungulate populations (van Der Wal et al., 2007; Turunen et al., 2009).

More frequent rain-on-snow icing events and thicker snowpacks causedby warmer winters and increased precipitation may restrict access tovegetation and may have profound negative influences on the populationdynamics of Arctic ungulates (Berg et al., 2008; Forchhammer et al.,2008; Miller and Barry, 2009; Stien et al., 2010, 2012; Hansen et al.,2011). Such events have caused heavy mortality in some semi-domestic

Page 15: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1581

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

reindeer herds and musk oxen in recent years (Grenfell and Putkonen,2008; Forbes, 2009; Bartsch et al., 2010), and have also been shown tosynchronize the dynamics of a resident vertebrate community (smallmammals, reindeer, and Arctic fox) in Svalbard (Hansen et al., 2013). Incontrast, Tyler et al. (2008) and Tyler (2010) suggested that generallywarmer winters enhance the abundance of reindeer populations.

It has been suggested that warming-induced trophic mismatchesbetween forage availability and quality and timing of calving have arole in the decline of circumpolar reindeer and caribou populations (Postand Forchhammer, 2008; Post et al., 2009a,b), although such trophicmismatch has been disputed (Griffith et al., 2010).

Adjustment via phenotypic plasticity instead of adaptation by naturalselection is expected to dominate vertebrate responses to rapidArctic climate change, and many such adjustments have already beendocumented (Gilg et al., 2012).

28.2.3.1.4. Long-term trends and event-driven changes

Long-term climate change impacts on vegetation and animal populationsare accelerated when tipping points are triggered by events such asextreme weather, fire, insect pest, and disease outbreaks. The impactsof winter thaw events on ecosystems are now well documented (e.g.,Bokhorst et al., 2011) but studies of the severe impacts of tundra fireson vegetation and biospheric feedbacks are recent (Mack et al., 2011).Results from experimental winter thaws were validated by a naturalevent in northern Norway and Sweden in 2007 that reduced NDVI byalmost 30% over at least 1400 km2 (Bokhorst et al., 2009). Studies onrelationships between climate change and plant disease are rare, butOlofsson et al. (2011) showed that increased snow accumulation led toa higher incidence of fungal growth on sub-Arctic vegetation.

28.2.3.2. Antarctica

Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems occur in 15 biologically distinct areas(Terauds et al., 2012), with those in the maritime and sub-Antarcticislands experiencing the warmest temperatures, reduced extremeseasonality and greatest biodiversity (Convey, 2006). In the coolerconditions on the continent, species must be capable of exploiting theshort periods where temperature and moisture availability are abovephysiological and biochemical thresholds. In many areas, there is novisible vegetation, with life being limited, at the extreme, to endolithic(within rock) communities of algae, cyanobacteria, fungi, bacteria, andlichens (Convey, 2006).

Few robust studies are available of biological responses to observedclimatic changes in natural Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems. The rapidpopulation expansion and local-scale colonization by two nativeflowering plants (Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis) inmaritime Antarctica (Parnikoza et al., 2009) remains the only publishedrepeat long-term monitoring study of any terrestrial vegetation orlocation in Antarctica. Radiocarbon dating of moss peat deposits hasshown that growth rates and microbial productivity have risen rapidlyon the Antarctic Peninsula since the 1960s, consistent with temperature

changes, and are unprecedented in the last 150 years (Royles et al.,2013). In east Antarctica, moss growth rates over the last 50 yearshave been linked to changes in wind speed and temperature and theirinfluence on water availability (Clarke et al., 2012). A contributing factoris that air temperatures have increased past the critical temperature atwhich successful sexual reproduction (seed set) can now take place,changing the dominant mode of reproduction and increasing thepotential distance for dispersal (low confidence; Convey, 2011). Similarchanges in the local distribution and development of typical cryptogamicvegetation of this region have been reported (Convey, 2011), includingthe rapid colonization of ice-free ground made available through glacialretreat and reduction in extent of previously permanent snow cover(Olech and Chwedorzewska, 2011). As these vegetation changes createnew habitat, there are concurrent changes in the local distribution andabundance of the invertebrate fauna that then colonize them (lowconfidence).

28.2.4. Health and Well-being of Arctic Residents

The warming Arctic and major changes in the cryosphere are significantlyimpacting the health and well-being of Arctic residents and projectedto increase, especially for many Indigenous peoples. Although impactsare expected to vary among the diverse settlements that range fromsmall, remote, predominantly Indigenous to large cities and industrialsettlements, this section focuses more on health impacts of climatechange on Indigenous, isolated, and rural populations because they areespecially vulnerable to climate change owing to a strong dependenceon the environment for food, culture, and way of life; their political andeconomic marginalization; existing social, health, and poverty disparities;as well as their frequent close proximity to exposed locations alongocean, lake, or river shorelines (Ford and Furgal, 2009; Galloway-McLean,2010; Larsen et al., 2010; Cochran et al., 2013).

28.2.4.1. Direct Impacts of a Changing Climateon the Health of Arctic Residents

Direct impacts of climate changes on the health of Arctic residentsinclude extreme weather events, rapidly changing weather conditions,and increasingly unsafe hunting conditions (physical/mental injuries,death, disease), temperature-related stress (limits of human survival inthermal environment, cold injuries, cold-related diseases), and UV-Bradiation (immunosuppression, skin cancer, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma,cataracts) (high confidence; Revich, 2008; AMAP, 2009; IPCC, 2012).Intense precipitation events and rapid snowmelt are expected to impactthe magnitude and frequency of slumping and active layer detachment,resulting in rock falls, debris flow, and avalanches (Kokelj et al., 2009;Ford et al., 2010). Other impacts from weather, extreme events, andnatural disasters are the possibility of increasingly unpredictable, longduration, and/or rapid onset of extreme weather events, storms, andinundation by large storm surges, which, in turn, may create risks to safetravel or subsistence activities, loss of access to critical supplies andservices to rural or isolated communities (e.g., food, telecommunications,fuel), and risk of being trapped outside one’s own community (highconfidence; Laidre et al., 2008; Parkinson, 2009; Brubaker et al., 2011b,c).Changing river and sea ice conditions affect the safety of travel for

Page 16: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1582

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Indigenous populations especially, and inhibit access to critical hunting,herding, and fishing areas (Andrachuk and Pearce, 2010; Derksen et al.,2012; Huntington and Watson, 2012).

Cold exposure has been shown to increase the frequency of certaininjuries (e.g., hypothermia, frostbite), accidents, and diseases (respiratory,circulatory, cardiovascular, musculoskeletal) (Revich and Shaposhmikov,2010). Studies in northern Russia have indicated an association betweenlow temperatures and social stress and cases of cardiomyopathy (Revichand Shaposhnikov, 2010). It is expected that winter warming in theArctic will reduce winter mortality rates, primarily through a reductionin respiratory and cardiovascular deaths (Shaposhnikov et al., 2010).Researchers project that a reduction in cold-related injuries may occur,assuming that the standard for protection against the cold is notreduced (including individual behavior-related factors) (Nayha, 2005).Conversely, studies are showing respiratory and cardiac stress associatedwith extreme warm summer days and that rising temperatures areaccompanied by increased air pollution and mortality, especially inRussian cities with large pollution sources (Revich, 2008; Revich andShaposhnikov, 2012).

28.2.4.2. Indirect Impacts of Climate Changeon the Health of Arctic Residents

Indirect effects of climate change on the health of Arctic residentsinclude a complex set of impacts such as changes in animal andplant populations (species responses, infectious diseases), changes inthe physical environment (ice and snow, permafrost), diet (food yields,availability of country food), built environment (sanitation infrastructure,water supply system, waste systems, building structures), drinking wateraccess, contaminants (local, long-range transported), and coastal issues(harmful algal blooms, erosion) (high confidence; Maynard and Conway,2007; Parkinson and Evengård, 2009; Brubaker et al., 2011a; see alsoChapter 11).

In addition to the climate change impacts and processes are thecomplicated impacts from contaminants such as persistent organicpollutants (POPs), radioactivity, and heavy metals (e.g., mercury), whichcreate additional and/or synergistic impacts on the overall health andwell-being of all Arctic communities (Armitage et al., 2011; UNEP andAMAP, 2011; Teran et al., 2012). Ambient temperature variability andtemperature gradients directly affect the volatilization, remobilization,and transport pathways of mercury and POPs in the atmosphere, oceancurrents, sea ice, and rivers. Transport pathways, inter-compartmentaldistribution, and bioaccumulation and transformation of environmentalcontaminants such as POPs, mercury, and radionuclides in the Arcticmay consequently be affected by climate change (high confidence;AMAP 2011b; Ma et al., 2011; UNEP and AMAP 2011; Teng et al., 2012).Ma et al. (2011) and Hung et al. (2010) demonstrated that POPs arealready being remobilized into the air from sinks in the Arctic region asa result of decreasing sea ice and increasing temperatures.

Contaminants and human health in the Arctic are tightly linked to theclimate and Arctic ecosystems by factors such as contaminant cyclingand climate (increased transport to and from the Arctic), and the relatedincreased risks of transmission to residents through subsistence life

ways (Maynard, 2006; AMAP, 2010; Armitage et al., 2011; UNEP andAMAP, 2011; Teran et al., 2012). The consumption of traditional foodsby Indigenous peoples places these populations at the top of the Arcticfood chain and through biomagnification, therefore, they may receivesome of the highest exposures in the world to certain contaminants(Armitage et al., 2011; UNEP and AMAP, 2011). Contaminants such asPOPs are known for their adverse neurological and medical effectson humans, particularly the developing fetus, children, women ofreproductive age, and the elderly; thus it is important to includecontaminants as a significant part of any climate impact assessment(UNEP and AMAP, 2011).

Radioactivity in the Arctic is also a concern because there are manypotential and existing radionuclide sources in some parts of the Arctic,and contamination can remain for long periods of time in soils and somevegetation, creating potentially high exposures for people (AMAP, 2010).Climate changes can mobilize radionuclides throughout the Arcticenvironment, and also potentially impact infrastructure associated withnuclear activities by changes in permafrost, precipitation, erosion, andextreme weather events (AMAP, 2010).

Warming temperatures are enabling increased overwintering survivaland distribution of new insects that sting and bite as well as many bird,animal, and insect species that can serve as disease vectors and, in turn,causing an increase in human exposure to new and emerging infectiousdiseases (Parkinson et al., 2008; Epstein and Ferber, 2011). Examples ofnew and emerging diseases are tick-borne encephalitis (brain infection)in Russia and Canada (Ogden et al., 2010; Tokarevich et al., 2011)and Sweden (Lindgren and Gustafson, 2001) and Giardia spp. andCryptosporidium spp. infection of ringed seals (Phoca hispida) andbowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) in the Arctic Ocean (Hughes-Hanks et al., 2005). It is also expected that temperature increases willincrease the incidence of zoonotic diseases as relocations of animalpopulations occur (Revich et al., 2012; Hueffler et al., 2013).

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), whose biotoxins can be a serious healthhazard to humans or animals (paralysis, death), are increasing globallyand expected to increase in the Arctic, and HABs are influenced directlyby climate change-related factors such as temperature, winds, currents,nutrients, and runoff (Portier et al., 2010; Epstein and Ferber, 2011; Walshet al., 2011; see also Chapters 6, 11). Increasing ocean temperatureshave caused an outbreak of a cholera-like disease, caused by Vibrioparahaemolyticus, in Alaskan oysters (McLaughlin et al., 2005). Inaddition, warmer temperatures raise the possibility of anthrax exposurein Siberia from permafrost thawing of historic cattle burial grounds(Revich and Podolnaya, 2011).

The impacts of climate change on food security and basic nutrition arecritical to human health because subsistence foods from the localenvironment provide Arctic residents, especially Indigenous peoples,with unique cultural and economic benefits necessary to well-being andcontribute a significant proportion of daily requirements of nutrition,vitamins, and essential elements to the diet (Ford, 2009; Ford andBerrang-Ford, 2009). However, climate change is already an importantthreat because of the decrease in predictability of weather patterns, lowwater levels and streams, timing of snow, and ice extent and stability,impacting the opportunities for successful hunting, gathering, fishing,

Page 17: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1583

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

and access to food sources and increasing the probability of accidents(high confidence; Ford and Furgal, 2009; Ford et al., 2010). In recent years,populations of marine and land mammals, fish, and water fowl are alsobeing reduced or displaced, thus reducing the traditional food supply(Gearheard et al., 2006; West and Hovelsrud, 2010; Lynn et al., 2013).

Traditional food preservation methods such as drying of fish and meat,fermentation, and ice cellar storage are being compromised by warmingtemperatures, thus further reducing food available to the community(Brubaker et al., 2011b,c). For example, food contamination caused bythawing of permafrost “ice cellars” is occurring and increasingly wetconditions make it harder to dry food for storage (Hovelsrud et al.,2011). Indigenous people increasingly have to abandon their semi-nomadic lifestyles, limiting their overall flexibility to access traditionalfoods from more distant locations (www.arctichealthyukon.ca). Thesereductions in the availability of traditional foods plus general globalizationpressures are forcing Indigenous communities to increasingly dependon expensive, non-traditional, and often less healthy Western foods,increasing the rates of modern diseases associated with processed foodand its packaging, such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, dentalcaries, and obesity (Armitage et al., 2011; Berrang-Ford et al., 2011;Brubaker et al., 2011b,c).

Climate change is beginning to threaten community and public healthinfrastructure, often in communities with no central water supply andtreatment sources. This is especially serious in low-lying coastal Arcticcommunities (e.g., Shishmaref, Alaska, USA; Tuktoyaktuk, NorthwestTerritories, Canada) through increased river and coastal flooding anderosion, increased drought, and thawing of permafrost, resulting in lossof reservoirs, damage to landfill sites, or sewage contamination (GAO,2009; Bronen, 2011). Saltwater intrusion and bacterial contaminationmay also be threatening community water supplies (Parkinson et al.,2008; Virginia and Yalowitz, 2012). Quantities of water available fordrinking, basic hygiene, and cooking are becoming limited owing todamaged infrastructure, drought, and changes in hydrology (Virginiaand Yalowitz, 2012). Disease incidence caused by contact with humanwaste may increase when flooding and damaged infrastructure spreadssewage in villages with no municipal water supply. This can result inhigher rates of hospitalization for pneumonia, influenza, skin infections,and respiratory viral infections (Parkinson and Evengård, 2009; Virginiaand Yalowitz, 2012). Compounding these impacts in rural areas as wellas cities are respiratory and other illnesses caused by air-borne pollutants(e.g., contaminants, microbes, dust, mold, pollen, smoke) (Revich, 2008;Rylander and Schilling, 2011; Revich and Shaposhnikov, 2012).

It is now well documented that the many climate-related impacts onArctic communities are causing significant psychological and mentaldistress and anxiety among residents (Levintova, 2010; Portier et al.,2010; Coyle and Susteren, 2012; see also Chapter 11). For example,changes in the physical environment (e.g., through thawing permafrostand erosion) that may lead to forced or voluntary relocation of residentsout of their villages or loss of traditional subsistence species are causingmental health impacts among Indigenous and other vulnerable, isolatedpopulations (Curtis et al., 2005; Albrecht et al., 2007; Coyle and Susteren,2012; Maldonado et al, 2013). Special concern has been expressed bymany communities about the unusually high and increasing numbersof suicides in the Arctic, especially among Indigenous youth, and efforts

are underway to try to develop a thorough assessment as well asestablish effective intervention efforts (Albrecht et al., 2007; Portier etal., 2010; USARC, 2010).

28.2.5. Indigenous Peoples and Traditional Knowledge

Indigenous populations in the Arctic—the original Native inhabitantsof the region—are considered especially vulnerable to climate changebecause of their close relationship with the environment and its naturalresources for physical, social, and cultural well-being (Nuttall et al.,2005; Parkinson, 2009; Cochran et al., 2013). Although there are widedifferences in the estimates, including variations in definitions of theArctic region, Arctic Indigenous peoples are estimated to numberbetween 400,000 and 1.3 million (Bogoyavlensky and Siggner, 2004;Galloway-McLean, 2010). According to 2010 census data, there areapproximately 68,000 Indigenous people living in the Russian Arctic.These Arctic residents depend heavily on the region’s terrestrial, marine,and freshwater renewable resources, including fish, mammals, birds,and plants; however, the ability of Indigenous peoples to maintaintraditional livelihoods such as hunting, harvesting, and herding isincreasingly being threatened by the unprecedented rate of climatechange (high confidence; Nakashima et al., 2012; Cochran et al., 2013). Inhabitats across the Arctic, climate changes are affecting these livelihoodsthrough decreased sea ice thickness and extent, less predictable weather,severe storms, sea level rise, changing seasonal melt/freeze-up of riversand lakes, changes in snow type and timing, increasing shrub growth,permafrost thaw, and storm-related erosion, which, in turn, are causingsuch severe loss of land in some regions that a number of Alaskancoastal villages are having to relocate entire communities (Oskal, 2008;Forbes and Stammler, 2009; Mahoney et al., 2009; Bartsch et al., 2010;Weatherhead et al., 2010; ,Bronen, 2011; Brubaker et al., 2011b,c; Eira etal., 2012; Huntington and Watson, 2012; McNeeley, 2012; Maldonado etal., 2013). In addressing these climate impacts, Indigenous communitiesmust at the same time consider multiple other stressors such as resourcedevelopment (oil and gas, mining); pollution; changes in land use policies;changing forms of governance; and the prevalence in many Indigenouscommunities of poverty, marginalization, and resulting health disparities(Abryutina, 2009; Forbes et al., 2009; Reinert et al., 2009; Magga et al.,2011; Vuojala-Magga et al., 2011; Nakashima et al., 2012; Mathiesenet al., 2013).

Traditional knowledge is the historical knowledge of Indigenous peoplesaccumulated over many generations and it is increasingly emerging asan important knowledge base for more comprehensively addressing theimpacts of environmental and other changes as well as development ofappropriate adaptation strategies for Indigenous communities (WGII AR4Chapter 15; Oskal, 2008; Reinert et al., 2008; Wildcat, 2009; Magga etal., 2011; Vuojala-Magga et al., 2011; Nakashima et al., 2012; Vogesseret al, 2013). For example, Saami reindeer herders have specializedknowledge of dynamic snow conditions, which mediate access to forageon autumn, winter, and spring reindeer rangelands (Roturier and Roue,2009; Eira et al., 2012; Vikhamar-Schuler et al., 2013) and traditionalgovernance systems for relating to natural environments (Sara, 2013).Increasingly, traditional knowledge is being combined with Westernscientific knowledge to develop more sustainable adaptation strategiesfor all communities in the changing climate.

Page 18: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1584

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

For example, at Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada, Inuit experts and scientistsboth note that wind speed has increased in recent years and that winddirection changes more often over shorter periods (within a day) thanit did during the past few decades (Gearheard et al., 2010; Overland etal., 2012). In Norway, Sámi reindeer herders and scientists are bothobserving direct and indirect impacts to reindeer husbandry such aschanges in snow and ice cover, forage availability, and timing of riverfreeze-thaw patterns from increasing temperatures (Eira et al., 2012).On the Yamal Peninsula in western Siberia, detailed Nenets observationsand recollections of iced-over autumn and winter pastures due to rain-on-snow events have proven suitable for calibrating the satellite-basedmicrowave sensor SeaWinds (Bartsch et al., 2010) and NASA’s AMSR-Esensor.

28.2.6. Economic Sectors

28.2.6.1. Arctic

28.2.6.1.1. Agriculture and forestry

Climate change presents benefits and costs for forestry and agriculture(Aaheim et al., 2009; Hovelsrud et al., 2011). In Iceland, for example, treelimits are found at higher altitudes than before, and productivity of manyplants has increased (Björnsson et al., 2011). Grain production in Icelandhas increased in the last 2 decades, and work on soil conservation andforestry has benefited from warming (Sigurdsson et al., 2007; Björnssonet al., 2011), but also the number of new insect pests on trees and shrubshas increased in the past 20 years. A strong relationship between rateof new insect pest colonization and outbreak intensity in forests existswith changes in annual temperature during the past century (Halldórssonet al., 2013). Climate change impacts on species change and firefrequency have potential impact on commercial forest harvesting activity.Vulnerability of forestry to changes that affect road conditions and thusaccessibility during thawing periods has been found in Sweden (Keskitalo,2008). A case study on Greenland found challenges for plant diseasesin potatoes and grass fields, with pathogens and pests present inagricultural cropping systems, for example, black scurf (Rhizoctonia)and common scab (Streptomyces scabies) (Neergaard et al., 2009).

28.2.6.1.2. Open and freshwater fisheries

Current commercial fisheries are sharply divided between regions ofhigh-yield and value (e.g., commercial fisheries in the southern BeringSea, Baffin Bay, the east and west Greenland Seas, the Iceland ShelfSea, the deep Norwegian/Greenland Sea, and the Barents Sea) andsubsistence fisheries in the coastal regions of the Arctic Ocean. Therelative absence of commercial fishing activity in the Arctic Ocean resultsfrom a combination of fisheries policy, the abundance of the resource,the lack of infrastructure for capturing and processing fish, and thedifficulties in accessing fishing grounds, especially during winter. In mostregions, fisheries management strategies have been developed to buildsustainable fisheries and rebuild overfished stocks (Froese and Proelß,2010; Livingston et al., 2011). Recently observed changes in the spatialdistribution and abundance of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) haschallenged existing international agreements for shared resources in

the North Atlantic (Arnason, 2012; Astthorsson et al., 2012). Althoughloss of sea ice in summer is allowing greater access to fisheriesresources in the Arctic Ocean, some nations have prohibited commercialfishing within their exclusive economic zones until there is sufficientunderstanding of stock status to ensure that proposed fisheries wouldbe managed sustainably (Stram and Evans, 2009; Wilson and Ormseth,2009).

Several Arctic coastal sea-run fishes are targeted for subsistence andcommercial use in the Arctic. Commercial transactions from fishing aretypically for local markets; however, the socioeconomic and culturalimportance of these fishes to Indigenous peoples far outweighs theirmonetary value. Reist et al. (2006) and Fechhelm et al. (2007) found thatclimate-related factors that influenced the water level and freshening ofrivers were related to run size of Arctic cisco (Coregonus autumnalis).Similarly, a recent study based on Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchustshawytscha) run timing for the period 1961–2009 showed that successin the fishery was dependent on the timing of the marine exit, whichwas tightly coupled to environmental conditions that were linked toclimate (Mundy and Evenson, 2011).

28.2.6.1.3. Marine transportation

Observations and climate models indicate that in the period between1979–1988 and 1998–2007 the number of days with ice-free conditions(less than 15% ice concentration) increased by 22 days along theNorthern Sea Route (NSR) in the Russian Arctic, and by 19 days in theNorthwest Passage (NWP) in the Canadian Arctic, while the averageduration of the navigation season in the period 1980–1999 was 45 and35 days, respectively (Mokhow and Khon, 2008). Increased shippingassociated with the opening of the NSR will lead to increased resourceextraction on land and in the sea, and with two-way commodity flowsbetween the Atlantic and Pacific. The future status of marine, terrestrial,and freshwater biota may be negatively affected as a result of substantialcoastal infrastructure to facilitate offshore developments (Meschtyb etal., 2005). Also, the frequency of marine transportation along the NSRis at its highest during the most productive and vulnerable season forfish and marine mammals, which is the late spring/summer, when theseresources can be found throughout the NSR area (Østreng, 2006).

28.2.6.1.4. Infrastructure

Much of the physical infrastructure in the Arctic relies on and is adaptedto local sea ice conditions, permafrost, and snow (Huntington et al., 2007;Sundby and Nakken, 2008; Sherman et al., 2009; West and Hovelsrud,2010; Forbes, 2011). Damage from ice action and flooding to installationssuch as bridges, pipelines, drilling platforms, and hydropower posesmajor economic costs and risks, which are more closely linked to the designof the structure than with thawing permafrost. Current engineeringpractices are designed to help minimize the impacts (Prowse et al., 2009).Much of the infrastructure has been built with weather conditions in mind,but remains vulnerable and inadequate to respond to environmentalemergencies, natural disasters, and non-environmental accidents (NRTEE,2009). Northern safety, security, and environmental integrity are muchdependent on transportation infrastructure. Ice as a provisioning system

Page 19: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1585

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

provides a transportation corridor and a platform for a range of activitiesand access to food sources in the Arctic (Eicken et al., 2009).

In northern Canada climate warming presents an additional challengefor northern development and infrastructure design. While the impactsof climate change become increasingly significant over the longer timescales, in the short term of greater significance will be the impactsassociated with ground disturbance and construction (Smith andRisebrough, 2010).

Climate change impacts have increased the demand for improvedcommunication infrastructure and related services and communityinfrastructure for the safety and confidence in drinking water (NRTEE,2009). The access, treatment, and distribution of drinking water isgenerally dependent on a stable platform of permafrost for pond or lakeretention. Several communities have reported the need for morefrequent water-quality testing of both municipal systems and untreatedwater sources to ensure its suitability for drinking (Furgal, 2008).

28.2.6.1.5. Resource exploration

The Arctic has large reserves of minerals (Lindholt, 2006; Harsem et al.,2011; Peters et al., 2011) and potentially large reserves of undiscoveredsources of raw minerals and oil and gas. Predicted new access tooffshore energy resources is hypothesized to be a significant share ofthe global supply of oil and gas (Gautier et al., 2009; Berkman, 2010).The socioeconomic impacts of oil and gas exploration activity may bepositive or negative (Duhaime et al., 2004; Huntington et al., 2007; Forbes,2008; Forbes et al., 2009; Kumpula et al., 2011; Harsem et al., 2011).

Climatic warming is accelerating access to northern lands for development(Forbes et al., 2009). Yamal in Western Siberia has approximately 90%of Russia’s gas reserves, but at the same time represents the largestarea of reindeer herding in the world (Jernsletten and Klokov, 2002;Stammler, 2005; Forbes and Kumpula, 2009). Development activities toobtain these resources would shrink the grazing lands, and havebeen characterized as one of the major human activities in the Arcticcontributing to loss of “available room for adaptation” for reindeerhusbandry (Nuttall et al., 2005; Oskal, 2008; Forbes et al., 2009). Sharpincreases in future oil and gas and other resource development in theRussian north and other Arctic regions are anticipated—along withassociated infrastructure, pollution, and other development byproducts—which will reduce the availability of pasturelands for reindeer and useby Indigenous communities (Derome and Lukina, 2011; Degteva andNellermann, 2013).

28.2.6.1.6. Informal, subsistence-based economy

Hunting, gathering, herding, and fishing for subsistence, as well ascommercial fishing, all play an important role in the mixed cash-subsistence economies (Nuttall et al., 2005; Poppel and Kruse, 2009; Crateet al., 2010; Larsen and Huskey, 2010). In the early 1990s—initially inwestern Canada, and later elsewhere—Indigenous communities startedreporting climate change impacts (Berkes and Armitage, 2010). Accordingto some herders, whalers, and walrus hunters, non-predictable conditions

resulting from more frequent occurrence of unusual weather events arethe main effect of recent warming (Forbes and Stammler, 2009; Forbeset al., 2009; Ignatowski and Rosales, 2013).

The Inuit and Saami have expressed strong concern about the effectsof climate warming on their livelihoods (Forbes and Stammler, 2009;Magga et al., 2011). For the Inuit, the issues revolve around sea iceconditions, such as later freeze-up in autumn; earlier melt-out and fastersea ice retreat in spring; and thinner, less predictable ice in general(Krupnik and Jolly, 2002; Cochran et al., 2013). Diminished sea icetranslates into more difficult access for hunting marine mammals, andgreater risk for the long-term viability of subsistence species such aspolar bear populations (high confidence; Laidre et al., 2008). Most Inuitcommunities depend to some extent on marine mammals for nutritionaland cultural reasons, and many benefit economically from polar bearand narwhal hunting. A reduction in these resources represents apotentially significant economic loss (Hovelsrud et al., 2008). AmongFennoscandian Saami, the economic viability of reindeer herding isthreatened by competition with other land users coupled with strictagricultural norms (Forbes, 2006; Magga et al., 2011). Reindeer herdersare concerned that more extreme weather may exacerbate this situation(Oskal, 2008).

Climate change is affecting reindeer herding communities through greatervariability in snow melt/freeze, ice, weather, winds, temperatures, andprecipitation, which, in turn are affecting snow quality and quantity—the most critical environmental variables for reindeer sustainability(Bartsch et al., 2010; Magga et al., 2011; Eira et al., 2012). Increasingtemperature variations in wintertime, with temperatures rising abovefreezing with rain, followed by refreezing (“rain-on-snow” conditions),are becoming more frequent, forming ice layers in the snow that thenblock the animals’ access to their forage and subsequent starvation(Bartsch, 2010; Maynard et al., 2011; Eira et al., 2012).

28.2.6.2. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean

Economic activities in the Antarctic have been limited to fishing andtourism (IPCC, 2007). Ship-based tourism is a significant industry inAntarctica but does not involve permanent shore-based infrastructure.Over recent decades, the number of tourists landing in Antarctica hasrisen from 7322 in 1996/1997 to 32,637 in 2007/2008 (IAATO, 2012).Visits generally coincide with the times when wildlife are breeding andare often restricted because of the presence of fast ice, sea ice, or icebergs.They are expected to continue to increase, with an increasing chanceof terrestrial alien species being introduced from tourism and othervectors as ice-free areas increase from climate change (Chown et al.,2012). Scientific activity by a number of nations is also taking place andhas the potential to impact upon local ecologies. Mineral resourceactivity is prohibited south of 60°S under the Protocol on EnvironmentalProtection to the Antarctic Treaty.

Fisheries in Antarctica, primarily through fisheries for Antarctic krill, couldamount to approximately 6% of existing global marine capture fisheries(Nicol et al., 2012). The pattern of the krill fishery has been affected bychanges in the sea ice extent around the Antarctic Peninsula, where thefishery has been taking advantage of the ice-free conditions and taking

Page 20: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1586

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

more of its catch during winter in that region (high confidence; Kawaguchiet al., 2009). Ecosystem-based management of krill fisheries by theCommission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources(CCAMLR) has yet to include procedures to account for climate changeimpacts, although the need to do so has been identified (Trathan andAgnew, 2010; Constable, 2011).

28.3. Key Projected Impacts and Vulnerabilities

28.3.1. Hydrology and Freshwater Ecosystems

28.3.1.1. Arctic

Accompanying projected increases in high-latitude river flow (Section3.4.5; WGI AR5 Section 12.4.5.4) are earlier spring runoff (Pohl et al.,2007; Dankers and Middelkoop, 2008; Hay and McCabe, 2010), greaterspring snowmelt (Adam et al., 2009), and increases in spring sedimentfluxes (Lewis and Lamoureux, 2010). Enhanced permafrost thaw (WGIAR5 Section 12.4.6.2) will continue to affect the dynamics of thermokarstlakes and related ecological effects (Section 28.2.1.1). Thawing permafrostand changes in the hydrological regime of the Arctic rivers, particularlythose traversing regions affected by industrial developments, will increasethe contaminant flow (Nikanorov et al., 2007). Loss of glacier ice masseswill alter runoff hydrographs; sediment loads; water chemistry; thermalregimes; and related channel stability, habitat, and biodiversity (Milneret al., 2009; Moore et al., 2009). Although snow, freshwater ice, andpermafrost affect the morphology of arctic alluvial channels, their futurecombined effects remain unclear (McNamara and Kane, 2009). For smallpermafrost streams, however, longer projected periods of flowing waterwill modify nutrient and organic matter processing (Greenwald et al.,2008; Zarnetske et al., 2008) but long-term negative impacts of increasedsediment load on biological productivity could outweigh any positiveeffects from increased nutrient loading (Bowden et al., 2008).

Changes to river-ice flooding are also projected to occur as a result ofchanges in (1) hydraulic gradients for near-coastal locations because ofsea level rise, (2) streamwise air-temperature gradients, and (3) the timingand magnitude of spring snowmelt (Prowse et al., 2011). Synergistic/antagonistic effects among these factors, however, require detailed site-specific analyses for accurate projections of future conditions (Beltaos andProwse, 2009). Reduced (increased) ice-jam flooding will have positive(negative) benefits for river-side northern communities/infrastructurebut could also alter delta-riparian (Lesack and Marsh, 2010) and coastalmarine (Emmerton et al., 2008) ecosystems. The quality of river waterentering the marine environment will also be affected by the reductionor loss of stamukhi lakes that process river inputs (Dumas et al., 2006;Galand et al., 2008).

Future changes to lake ice regimes will include delayed freeze-up,advanced break-up, thinner ice and changes in cover composition(especially white ice in areas of enhanced winter precipitation), increasedwater temperature, and earlier and longer-lasting summer stratification(Dibike et al., 2011), all of which will affect a range of aquatic processes,including secondary productivity (Borgstrøm and Museth, 2005; Prowseet al., 2007; Prowse and Brown, 2010b). Patterns of species richness anddiversity are also projected to change with alterations to ice duration—

increased open-water periods favoring the development of new trophiclevels, colonization of new aquatic species assemblages (Vincent et al.,2009), greater atmosphere-water gas exchange, and a decrease inwinter kill of resident fish with cascading effects on lower trophic levels(Balayla et al., 2010). The loss of ice, however, can also decrease keyhabitat availability and quality (Vincent et al., 2008). Geochemicalresponses of Arctic lakes will also be altered. As observed for thermokarstlakes, the loss of ice cover and associated warming can greatly increasemethane production (Metje and Frenzel, 2007; Laurion et al., 2010).Because temperature sensitivity has a stronger control over methaneproduction than oxidation (Duc et al., 2010), elevated water temperatureswill enhance methanogenesis, causing increased methane release fromsediments. The net balance of these two processes operating under abroad range of future changing environmental factors, however, remainsto be quantified (Walter et al., 2007a,b, 2008; Laurion et al., 2010).

As well as methane, increased water temperatures are projected to leadto reduced organic carbon (OC) burial. Projections, based on a range ofsix climate warming scenarios (IPCC, 2007), indicate that there will bea 4 to 27% decrease (0.9 to 6.4 TgC yr–1) in OC burial across lakes ofthe northern boreal zone by the end of the 21st century as comparedto rates for the approximately last half-century (Gudasz et al., 2010).Although these estimates assume that future OC delivery will be similarto present-day conditions, even with enhanced supply from thawingpermafrost, higher water temperatures will increase OC mineralizationand thereby lower burial efficiency. The amount of burial also dependson lake depth and mixing regimes. For non-thermally stratified shallowlakes, there will be a greater opportunity for water-sediment mixing,and hence greater carbon recycling back into the water column. Bycontrast, for lakes that become increasingly thermally stratified, carbonsinking below the thermocline will tend not to return to the surface untilan increasing later fall turnover, thereby decreasing the probability ofsediment-stored carbon being returned to the water column (Flanaganet al., 2006).

Changes in ice cover, thermal regimes, and stratification patterns willalso affect the fate of contaminants in northern lakes. Higher watertemperatures can enhance the methylation of mercury and modify foodweb and energy pathways, such as through enhanced algal scavenging(a major food web entry pathway for mercury), resulting in increasedmercury bioavailability to higher trophic levels (Outridge et al., 2007;Carrie et al., 2010).

28.3.1.2. Antarctica

This assessment reinforces conclusions of AR4. Increased temperatureswill impact aquatic ecosystems in Antarctica (high confidence), but theexact nature of these impacts will vary regionally. The most vulnerablefreshwater systems are in the northern Antarctic Peninsula and maritimeAntarctic islands, where a small increase in temperature can havewidespread ecosystem impacts because the average temperature iswithin a few degrees of the melting point (high confidence; Quesada andVelázquez, 2012). Potential impacts are expected to range from immediatecatastrophic impacts such as loss of bounding ice masses causingdrainage of freshwater and epishelf lakes (Smith et al., 2006; Hodgson,2011), to more gradual impacts on changes in the amount and duration

Page 21: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1587

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

of catchment ice and snow cover; accelerated glacier melting; decliningvolumes of precipitation falling as snow; permafrost; and active layer andhydrological changes, such as water retention times (medium confidence;e.g., Vieira et al., 2010; Quesada and Velázquez, 2012; Bockheim et al.,2013).

Changes in the thickness and duration of seasonal ice cover, longer meltseasons, and larger volumes of water flowing into the lakes are expectedin the future (medium confidence; Lyons et al., 2006) but the ecologicaleffects will vary between lakes, depending on their depth to surfacearea ratio, with insufficient evidence to fully assess future changes inthese systems. Longer ice-free seasons may cause physical conditionsto be more favorable for primary production (Hodgson and Smol, 2008)but very high irradiances experienced during summer in some systemscan substantially inhibit algal blooms under ice-free conditions (Tanabeet al., 2007), which would favor the growth of benthic cyanobacteriaspecies (Hodgson et al., 2005). In other lakes, increases in meltwatersupply may increase suspended solids and reduce light penetration andmay offset the increases in the underwater light regime predicted as aresult of extended ice-free periods (Quesada et al., 2006).

Under a warming climate an increase in microbial biomass is expectedbecause of the increased water supply from glacial melt and warmertemperatures, and could result in further development of soils and elevatednutrient and dissolved OC delivery to lakes (Velázquez et al., 2013). Thisorganic supply will promote growth and reproduction in the benthosand plankton and imbalances in population dynamics (Quesada andVelázquez, 2013). Nutrient enrichment of some freshwater habitats inthe vicinity of fur seal colonies will increase because of expanding furseal populations (high confidence; Quayle et al., 2013).

Away from glacial forelands, increasing aridity will occur in the longterm in some areas of the continent (Hodgson et al., 2006b) and onsub-Antarctic islands (medium confidence; Smith, Jr. et al., 2012). Closedbasin lakes can dry up completely causing local extinctions or retreatinto cryptic or resistant life-cycle stages, as experienced in Arctic lakes(Smol and Douglas, 2007b). Other effects include desiccation of mossbanks due to increased evaporation and sublimation rates (mediumconfidence; Wasley et al., 2006). Studies have also shown that warmingof once cold freshwater habitats in Antarctica will allow the sub- andmaritime Antarctic species to re-invade and establish self-maintainingpopulations on the Antarctic continent, particularly where humanvectors are involved (medium confidence; Barnes et al., 2006; Hodgsonet al., 2006b). For other organisms with lower dispersal capabilitiesthere is increasing evidence of endemism, particularly in microbialgroups (Vyverman et al., 2010), with a possibility that surface Antarcticlakes contain endemic species that are relics of Gondwana (cf. Conveyand Stevens, 2007) and that would become extinct should they be lostfrom these lakes as a result of climate change.

28.3.2. Oceanography and Marine Ecosystems

28.3.2.1. Ocean Acidification in the Arctic and Antarctic

The effects of ocean acidification on polar marine food webs can haveconsiderable implications (medium confidence). For example, if some

regions in the Arctic become understaturated with respect to aragonite(the primary structural component of the shells of some marine calcifierssuch as molluscs and urchins), the growth and survial of these organismswill be impacted (WGI AR5 Figure 6.28; Chierici and Fransson, 2009; Fabryet al., 2009; Yamamoto-Kawai et al., 2009). In laboratory experiments,Arctic pteropods (Limacina helicina, a small planktonic mollusc) held underconditions consistent with projected ocean warming and acidificationin the Arctic Ocean in early spring were able to extend their shells incorrosive waters but dissolution marks were observed (Comeau et al.,2010, 2012). Additional studies are needed to scale up regional impactsto assess the population level impact of ocean acidification on Limacinahelicina and other vulnerable species (Orr et al., 2009). At the current timethere are insufficient data to fully assess the ecosystem consequencesof acidification on pteropods because it is unclear whether otherspecies, with a similar nutritive value, will replace pteropods.

In the Southern Ocean, foraminifera have thinner shells than in theHolocene and there is evidence for shell thickness to be related toatmospheric CO2, supporting the hypothesis that ocean acidification willaffect this abundant protozoan in this region (Moy et al., 2009). Similarly,shells are thinner from sediment traps in aragonite undersaturated water(below the aragonite saturation horizon (ASH)) compared to thosecaptured above the ASH in sub-Antarctic waters, but there is no timeseries of data related to change in the ASH (Roberts et al., 2011). Shelldissolution has been observed in surface waters in the Atlantic sectoras a result of both upwelling and atmospheric changes in CO2 (mediumconfidence; Bednarsek et al., 2012). Other impacts of acidification onSouthern Ocean organisms are currently uncertain, but short-termnegative impacts need to be considered together with an organism’scapacity to adapt in the longer term (Watson et al., 2012).

Only a few studies have been conducted on commercially exploited polarspecies on ocean acidification. Antarctic krill embryonic development(Kawaguchi et al., 2011) and post-larval krill metabolic physiology (Sabaet al., 2012) may be impeded by elevated CO2 concentrations, whichmay negatively impact the reproductive success of krill more generallyunder emission scenarios used in Coupled Model Intercomparison ProjectPhase 5 (CMIP5) (medium confidence; Kawaguchi et al., 2013). Longet al. (2013) examined the effects of acidification on red king crab(Paralithodes camtschaticus) and found animals exposed to reduced pHexhibited increased hatch duration, decreased egg yolk, increased larvalsize, and decreased larval survival. In contrast, Hurst et al. (2012)conducted laboratory experiments at levels of elevated CO2 predicted tobe present in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea in the next century andfound that juvenile walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) exhibited ageneral resiliency of growth energetics to the direct effects of CO2 changes.

28.3.2.2. Arctic

28.3.2.2.1. Marine plankton, fish, and other invertebrates

Phenological response

Projected changes in the timing, spatial distribution, and intensity ofspring blooms may result in mismatches with the timing of the emergenceof Arctic grazers (Søreide et al., 2010). Based on past experience,

Page 22: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1588

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

some species will adapt to local conditions by shifting key life cycleevents (hatch date, maturity schedule, and reproductive timing) or diet toaccommodate differences in the regional timing and availability of preyand environmental conditions (Ormseth and Norcross, 2007; Sundbyand Nakken, 2008; Vikebø et al., 2010; Darnis et al., 2012). For example,loss of sea ice cover in spring is expected to change fish behavior inice-bound areas (Mundy and Evenson, 2011). It is uncertain whetherendemic animals will be able to alter key phenologies fast enough tokeep pace with the projected rates of change in the Arctic Ocean.

Projected spatial shifts

Simulation studies revealed that a 2-week longer growing season anda 2°C increase in temperature would not be sufficient to allow expatriatespecies (Calanus finmarchicus or C. marshallae) to invade the Arctic Ocean(Ji et al., 2012). Ellingsen et al. (2008) projected future zooplanktondistribution and abundance in the Barents Sea for the period 1995–2059using a regional climate model that was forced with climate modeloutput based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B2scenario. They projected that by 2059, Atlantic origin zooplankton willincrease and Arctic origin zooplankton will decrease in the Barents Sea.

The literature is mixed with respect to the potential for future movementof fish and shellfish into the Arctic Ocean. Modeling studies project thatmarine fish stocks potentially will shift their distributions into the ArcticOcean, resulting in an increase in biodiversity in the region (Cheung etal., 2009, 2011; see also Box CC-MB). However, other studies show thepersistence of cold seawater temperatures on the shelf regions of theArctic Ocean and northern Bering Sea will restrict or retard movementof several sub-Arctic fish and shellfish species into the Arctic Ocean(Sigler et al., 2011; Stabeno et al., 2012b; Hunt, Jr. et al., 2013). In watersoff the coasts of Europe there is a potential for increased fish productionbecause of the combined effects of intrusion of Atlantic water over therelatively broader shelf regions and advective corridors for larval driftand range expansion of spawners. Huse and Ellingsen (2008) forced aspatially explicit coupled biophysical model for the Barents Sea withfuture climate scenarios to project the implications of climate changeon the spawning distribution of capelin (Mallotus villosus). Projectionsshow that the spawning distribution of capelin will shift to the east andnew spawning grounds will be colonized. A key factor governing thisexpansion will be the availability of pelagic prey. In the southeast BeringSea, there is evidence that planktivorous species such as walleye pollockwill shift their distribution in response to shifts in ocean temperature(Kotwicki and Lauth, 2013). In summary, the spatial distribution of somefish and shellfish in the Barents and southeast Bering Seas will shift inresponse to climate change (high confidence).

Projected impacts on production

In the deep basins of the Arctic Ocean the number of ice-free days insummer are expected to result in longer productive seasons (highconfidence; Slagstad et al., 2011). Ellingsen et al. (2008) projected thatannual primary production would increase by 2059 in the Barents Sea.Tremblay et al. (2012) hypothesized that longer ice-free periods in summerin the Arctic Ocean could provide for more opportunities for episodic

nutrient pulses that would enhance secondary production through thegrowing season. However, in the Arctic Ocean, these changes in primaryproduction may be offset later in the year by increased zooplanktongrazing (Olli et al., 2007) or nutrient depletion due to stronger stratificationand shifts in the mixed layer depth (Wassmann, 2011; Tremblay et al.,2012). Therefore, there is medium confidence that annual phytoplanktonproduction will increase in the central Arctic Ocean.

In the few cases where future abundance of fish has been projectedusing climate change scenarios, species exhibited different trends relatedto their vulnerability. Forward extrapolation of observed responsessuggests that increased summer sea surface temperatures in the Beringand Barents Seas will cause a decrease in the abundance of energy-richcopepods and euphausiids (Coyle et al., 2011; Slagstad et al., 2011).This change in prey quality is expected to lower survival of walleyepollock in the eastern Bering Sea by 2050 (Mueter et al., 2011). Climate-enhanced stock projection models showed time trends in cross-shelftransport of juvenile northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) tonursery areas will not be substantially altered by climate change(Wilderbuer et al., 2012).

28.3.2.2.2. Marine mammals, polar bears, and seabirds

The effects of the projected reduction in sea ice extent in this century(Wang and Overland, 2009) on Arctic marine mammals and seabirds willvary spatially and temporally (Laidre et al., 2008). Many ice-associatedmarine mammals and seabirds will be affected by ice loss, with alteredspecies distributions, migration patterns, behavior, interspecific interactions,demography, population changes, and vulnerability to extinction butthere is limited evidence of changes for most species (high confidence).

The polar bear population of the southern Beaufort Sea is projected todecline by 99% by 2100, with a probability estimated at 0.80 to 0.94under A1B (Hunter et al., 2010). The northern Beaufort Sea populationis stable although decline is predicted with warming (Stirling et al.,2011). Projected extirpation of approximately two-thirds of the world’spolar bears was predicted for mid-century under A1B (Amstrup et al.,2008). Aspects of this study were criticized (Armstrong et al., 2008) butrefuted (Amstrup et al., 2009). The two-thirds decline is consistent withother studies and has robust evidence with medium agreement. Projectedextinction of polar bears is unlikely. There is very high confidence ofsubpopulation extirpation.

It is likely that the high Arctic seabird species partly or completelydependent on the sympagic ecosystem or the cold Arctic waters closeto the ice edge will be negatively impacted if the projected changes inthese physical parameters occur (medium confidence). A general increasein sea surface temperatures, retreat of the ice cover, and earlier breakup of fast ice may improve the environmental conditions and foodabundance for seabird species that have their range in the southernpart of the Arctic or south of the Arctic (medium confidence). A polewardexpansion of the range of these species is expected during a continuedwarming (medium confidence).

Several factors other than climate influence seabird population dynamics(Regular et al., 2010), and projections of changes with a continued Arctic

Page 23: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1589

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

warming are therefore highly uncertain. Pattern of change will be non-uniform and highly complex (ACIA, 2005). At present, the resolution ofAtmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models are not detailed enoughto project spatial changes in mesoscale oceanographic features suchas frontal zones and eddies of importance to Arctic seabirds.

28.3.2.3. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean

Continued rising temperatures in the Southern Ocean will result inincreased metabolic costs in many ectothermic pelagic species, southwardmovement of temperate species, and contraction of the range of polarspecies (medium confidence). Southward movement of ocean fronts andassociated biota that are prey of sub-Antarctic island-based predatorswill result in energetic inefficiencies for some of those predators (lowconfidence; Péron et al., 2012; Weimerskirch et al., 2012).

For Antarctic krill, insufficient evidence is available to predict what willhappen to circumpolar productivity because of regional variability of theeffects of climate change on the different factors (positive and negative)that affect krill, directly and indirectly. For example, increased metabolicand growth rates from warming may be countered by a reduced foodsupply and the effects of ocean acidification (Sections 28.2.2.2, 28.3.2.1).Also, areas that are already warm may result in slower growth withfurther warming, such as could happen in the northern Scotia Arc(Wiedenmann et al., 2008; Hill et al., 2013). Models of recruitment andpopulation dynamics indicate that the biomass of krill will decline ifsurface warming continues, but preliminary projections incorporating arange of factors are uncertain (low confidence; Murphy et al., 2007,2012b). Physiological and behavioral responses might also ameliorateimpacts. For example, krill are now known to exploit the full depth ofthe ocean, which could provide escapes from further warming (Schmidtet al., 2011) as well as refuge from air-breathing predators.

The strong dependence of species in more southern regions (e.g., southernwest Antarctic Peninsula and Ross Sea region) on sea ice means thatchanges in sea ice distribution will cause spatial shifts in the structureof ice-obligate food webs (low confidence; Murphy et al., 2012b).Projections show that loss of summer sea ice from the west AntarcticPeninsula is expected to result in ice-dependent seals declining and beingreplaced by other seal species that are not dependent on sea ice (lowconfidence; Siniff et al., 2008; Costa et al., 2010). There is insufficientevidence to determine whether there will be a mismatch in phenologiesof different species as a result of changes in the winter sea ice season(timing and winter extent), such as might occur if the timing of sea icemelt was not at a time of optimal growing conditions for phytoplankton(Trathan and Agnew, 2010).

Reductions in krill abundance in the marine food webs around theSouth Atlantic islands may result in a shift in their structure toward amore fish-centered ecosystem as observed in the Indian Sector (lowconfidence; Trathan, et al., 2007, 2012; Shreeve et al., 2009; Waluda etal., 2010; Murphy et al., 2012a,b). Also, salps have been postulatedto be competitors with krill for phytoplankton around the AntarcticPeninsula when oceanic conditions displace shelf and near-shelf watersduring times of low sea ice (Ducklow et al., 2012). In the absence ofkrill, longer food chains have lower trophic efficiency (Muprhy et al.,

2013), and the long-term implications of this for higher trophic levelsare unknown.

Coastal environments will be impacted by the dynamics of fast ice, iceshelves, and glacier tongues. These factors will positively affect localprimary production and food web dynamics (Peck et al., 2009) butnegatively affect benthic communities (low confidence; Barnes andSouster, 2011). Projections of the response of emperor penguins andSouthern Ocean seabirds based on AR4 model outputs for sea ice andtemperature in east Antarctica indicate that general declines in thesepopulations are to be expected if sea ice habitats decline in the future(low confidence; Barbraud et al., 2011; Jenouvrier et al., 2012). However,these responses are also expected to be regionally specific because ofthe regional differences in expectations of change in the ice habitats(high confidence). Additional studies at other sites are needed to improveconfidence levels of predictions.

28.3.3. Terrestrial Environment and Related Ecosystems

28.3.3.1. Arctic

The boreal forest is generally projected by models to move northwardunder a warming climate, which will displace between 11 and 50% ofthe tundra within 100 years (Callaghan et al., 2005; Wolf et al., 2008;Tchebakova et al., 2009; Wramneby et al., 2010) in a pattern similar tothat which occurred during the early Holocene climatic warming (highconfidence). Pearson et al. (2013) projected that at least half of vegetatedArctic areas will shift to a different physiognomic class, and woody coverwill increase by as much as 52%, in line with what has been occurringin northwest Eurasia (Macias-Fauria et al., 2012).

Dynamic vegetation models applied to Europe and the Barents Regionproject a general increase in net annual primary production by climatewarming and CO2 fertilization (Wolf et al., 2008; Wramneby et al., 2010;Anisimov et al., 2011). Boreal needle-leaved evergreen coniferous forestreplaces tundra and expands into the mountain areas of Fennoscandia,but this advance may be delayed or prevented in regions alreadyoccupied by clonal deciduous shrubs whose in situ growth has increasedsignificantly in recent decades (Macias-Fauria et al., 2012).

In contrast to these expected results, shrubs, currently expanding inarea in many Arctic locations, were modeled to decrease in extentover the next 100 years after an initial increase (Wolf et al., 2008). Also,counterintuitively, tundra areas increased in the projections. This was aresult of changes at the highest latitudes that opened land for colonizationat a rate exceeding displacement of tundra by shrubs in the south.

Several studies have calculated the magnitude of the effects of vegetationchange in the Arctic on negative feedbacks of CO2 sequestration andincreased evapotranspiration and the positive feedback of decreasedalbedo (Swann et al., 2010; Wramneby et al., 2010; Wolf et al., 2010;Pearson et al., 2013). It is likely that vegetation changes will result inan overall positive feedback on the climate.

Recent changes and results of climate change simulation experimentsin the field have shown that there are considerable uncertainties in the

Page 24: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1590

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

projected rates of change (e.g., Van Bogaert et al., 2010). Furthermore,the models do not yet include vertebrate and invertebrate herbivory,extreme events such as tundra fire, and extreme winter warmingdamage or changes in land use that either reduce the rate of vegetationchange or open up niches for rapid change. Projections suggest increasesin the ranges of the autumn and winter months that have outbreaks inpopulations resulting in the defoliation of birch forest (Jepsen et al.,2008, 2011) and a general increase in the “background” (non-outbreak)invertebrate herbivores (Wolf et al., 2008).

Animal terrestrial biodiversity is generally projected to increase in theArctic during warming by immigration of new species from the south,vegetation changes, and indirectly by introduction of invasive speciescaused by increased human activities and increased survival of suchspecies (high confidence; Post et al., 2009; Gilg et al., 2012; CAFF, 2013).Many native Arctic species will likely be increasingly threatened duringthis century.

28.3.3.2. Antarctica

Projected effects of climate change on Antarctic terrestrial species arelimited to knowledge of their ecophysiological tolerances to changes inair temperature, wind speed, precipitation (rain and snowfall), permafrostthaw, and exposure of new habitat through glacial/ice retreat. The climateis expected to become more tolerable to a number of species, leadingto increases in biomass and extent of existing ecological communities.

The frequency with which new potential colonizing plant and animalspecies arrive in Antarctica (particularly the Antarctic Peninsula region)from lower latitudes, and the subsequent probability of their successfulestablishment, will increase with regional climate warming and associatedenvironmental changes (high confidence; Chown et al., 2012). Human-assisted transfers of biota may be more important by two orders ofmagnitude than natural introductions (Frenot et al., 2005) as the transferis faster and avoids extreme environments such as altitude or oceans(Barnes et al., 2006). The potential for anthropogenic introduction ofnon-indigenous species to Antarctic terrestrial areas, which could havedevastating consequences to the local biodiversity, will increase (highconfidence; Convey et al., 2009; Hughes and Convey, 2010; Convey,2011; Braun et al., 2012). At present, established non-indigenous speciesin the sub- and maritime Antarctic are very restricted in their distributions(Frenot et al., 2005). Climate change could result in a greater rate ofspread of invasive species through colonization of areas exposed byglacial retreat, as has occurred at South Georgia (Cook et al., 2010) andin the maritime Antarctic (Olech and Chwedorzewska, 2011). Biosecuritymeasures may be needed to help control dispersal of established non-indigenous species to new locations, particularly given the expectedincrease in human activities in terrestrial areas (Hughes and Convey, 2010;Convey et al., 2011). An important gap in understanding is the degreeto which climate change may facilitate some established but localizedalien species to become invasive and widespread (Frenot et al., 2005;Convey 2010; Hughes and Convey, 2010; Cowan et al., 2011), whichhas been shown for the sub-Antarctic (Chown et al., 2012).

Overall, the likely impacts of existing and new non-indigenous specieson the native terrestrial ecosystems of Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic

islands, along with the continued increased presence of Antarctic furseals, are likely to have far greater importance over the time scaleunder consideration than are those attributable to climate change itself(Convey and Lebouvier, 2009; Turner et al., 2009; Convey, 2010).

28.3.4. Economic Sectors

Projections of economic costs of climate change impacts for differenteconomic sectors in the Arctic are limited, but current assessmentssuggest that there will be both benefits and costs (AMAP, 2011a;Forbes, 2011). Non-Arctic actors are likely to receive most of the benefitsfrom increased shipping and commercial development of renewableand non-renewable resources, while Indigenous peoples and localArctic communities will have a harder time maintaining their way oflife (Hovelsrud et al., 2011).

Contributing to the complexity of measuring the future economic effectsof climate change is the uncertainty in future predictions and therapid speed of change, which are linked with the uncertainty of thetechnological and ecological effects of such change (NorAcia, 2010).Communities within the same eco-zone may experience different effectsfrom identical climate-related events because of marked local variationsin site, situation, culture, and economy (Clark et al., 2008).

Economic cost estimates have been made for the case of the Alaskaneconomy, for example, which suggest that a heavy reliance on climate-sensitive businesses such as tourism, forestry, and fisheries renders theeconomy vulnerable to climate change, and that Alaska Native peoples,reliant on the biodiversity of the Alaskan ecosystem, are being affecteddisproportionately (Epstein and Ferber, 2011). Some Alaskan villagessuch as Shishmaref, Kivalina, and Newtok have already lost criticalinfrastructure and services and are becoming unlivable because ofpermafrost thaw, storm damage, and coastal erosion but the high costsand limitations of government mechanisms are significant barriers tothe actual relocation of these communities (Bronen, 2011; Brubaker etal., 2011c; Cochran et al., 2013; Maldonado et al., 2013).

28.3.4.1. Fisheries

Climate change will impact the spatial distribution and catch of someopen ocean fisheries in the Barents and Bering Seas (high confidence);however, the future of commercial fisheries in the Arctic Ocean is uncertain.There is strong evidence and considerable data showing links betweenclimate-driven shifts in ocean conditions and shifts in the spatial distributionand abundance of commercial species in the Bering and Barents Seas(Section 28.3.2.2.1). In limited cases, coupled biophysical models orclimate-enhanced stock projection models have been used to predictfuture commercial yield or shifts in fishing locations. However, thesepredictions are uncertain (Huse and Ellingsen, 2008; Ianelli et al., 2011;Wilderbuer et al., 2012). Cheung et al. (2011) used projections from anEarth System Model to estimate shifts in bio-climatic windows thatincluded climate change effects on biogeochemistry (oxygen and acidity)and primary production to project future catch potential of 120 demersalfish and invertebrates. Results from their model suggested that the catchpotential will increase in the Barents and Greenland Seas and regions

Page 25: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1591

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

at greater than 70° north latitude (Cheung et al., 2011). In contrast,vulnerability analysis suggests that only a few species are expected tobe abundant enough to support viable fisheries in the Arctic Ocean(Hollowed et al., 2013). Potential fisheries for snow crab (Chionoecetesopilio) on shelf areas of the Arctic Ocean may be limited by the associatedimpacts of ocean acidification. If fisheries develop in the Arctic Ocean,adoption of sustainable strategies for management will be a highpriority (Molenaar, 2009). The moratorium on fishing in the US portionof the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas would prevent fishing until sufficientdata become available to manage the stock sustainably (Wilson andOrmseth, 2009).

Predicting how harvesters will respond to changing economic, institutional,and environmental conditions under climate change is difficult. Currenttechniques track fishers’ choices based on revenues and costs associatedwith targeting a species in a given time and area with a particular geargiven projected changes in the abundance and spatial distribution oftarget species (Haynie and Pfeiffer, 2012). However, estimates of futurerevenues and costs will depend, in part, on future demand for fish, globalfish markets, and trends in aquaculture practices (Rice and Garcia, 2011;Merino et al., 2012).

28.3.4.2. Forestry and Farming

Climate change is likely to have positive impacts for agriculture,including extended growing season (medium to high confidence;Falloon and Betts, 2009; Grønlund, 2009; Tholstrup and Rasmussen,2009), although variations across regions are expected (Hovelsrud etal., 2011), and the importance of impacts to the Arctic economy willlikely remain minor (Eskeland and Flottorp, 2006). Potential positiveeffects of climatic warming for forestry include decreased risk of snowdamage. Kilpeläinen et al. (2010) estimate a 50% decrease in snowdamage in Finland toward the end of the century. A warmer climate islikely to impact access conditions and plant diseases for forestry andfarming. Grønlund (2009) found in the case of northern Norway—where about half of the arable land area is covered by forest and 40%by marshland—that the potential harnessing of arable land for farmingwill be at the cost of forestry production, or dried-up marshlands, whichmay contribute to more greenhouse emissions. Larger field areas maycontribute to land erosion through rainfall and predicted unstablewinters, and may increase conditions for plant diseases and fungalinfections (Grønlund, 2009). If the winter season continues to shortendue to climate change (Xu et al., 2013), accessibility to logging siteswill be negatively affected. Accessibility is higher when frozen groundmakes transportation possible in sensitive locations or areas that lackroad. If weather changes occur when logging has taken place, sandingof roads may be necessary which carries significant economic costs.Impact on carrying capacity of ground or road accessibility will thusaffect forestry economically. Challenges may include limited storagespace for wood (Keskitalo, 2008).

28.3.4.3. Infrastructure, Transportation, and Terrestrial Resources

Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have thepotential to affect all infrastructure types and related services, as much

of the infrastructure in the North is dependent on the cryosphere to, forexample, provide stable surfaces for buildings and pipelines, containwaste, stabilize shorelines, and provide access to remote communitiesin the winter (high confidence; Huntington et al., 2007; Furgal andProwse, 2008; Sundby and Nakken, 2008; Sherman et al., 2009; Westand Hovelsrud, 2010; Forbes, 2011). In the long-term, marine andfreshwater transportation will need to shift reliance from ice routes toopen-water or land-based transportation systems. Relocation remainsone community-based adaptation to deal with projections of persistentflooding and bank erosion (Furgal, 2008; NRTEE, 2009). Changing seaice (multi-year) conditions are expected to have a regulating impact onmarine shipping and coastal infrastructure (i.e., via introduced hazards;Eicken et al., 2009).

By adapting transportation models to integrate monthly climatemodel (Community Climate System Model 3 (CCSM3)) predictions ofair temperature—combined with data sets on land cover, topography,hydrography, built infrastructure, and locations of human settlements—estimates have been made of changes to inland accessibility forlandscapes northward of 40ºN by the mid-21st century (Stephenson etal., 2011). Milder air temperatures and/or increased snowfall reducethe possibilities for constructing inland winter-road networks, includingice roads, with the major seasonal reductions in road potential (basedon a 2000-kg vehicle) being in the winter shoulder-season months ofNovember and April. The average decline (compared to a baseline of2000–2014) for eight circumpolar countries was projected to be–14%, varying from –11 to –82%. In absolute terms, Canada and Russia(both at –13%) account for the majority of declining winter-roadpotential with approximately 1 × 106 km2 being lost (see Table 28-1).The winter road season has decreased since the 1970s on the AlaskanNorth Slope, from as much as 200 to 100 days in some areas (Hinzman,et al., 2005).

Climate change is expected to lead to a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean inlate summer and increased navigability of Arctic marine waters withinthis century. New possibilities for shipping routes and extended useof existing routes may result from increased melting of sea ice (highconfidence; Corbett et al., 2010; Khon et al., 2010; Paxian et al., 2010;Peters et al., 2011; Stephenson et al., 2011).

 Change (%) in winter road-accessible land area (km2) (2000-kg GVWR vehicle)

Change (%) in maritime-accessible ocean area (km2) (type A vessel) — current EEZ

Canada – 13 19

Finland – 41 0

Greenland – 11 28

Iceland – 82 < 1

Norway – 51 2

Russia – 13 16

Sweden – 46 0

USA (Alaska) – 29 5

High seas n /a 406

Total – 14 23

Table 28-1 | Annually averaged changes in inland and maritime transportation accessibility by mid-century (2045 – 2059) versus baseline (2000 – 2014).

Page 26: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1592

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Projections made by Stephenson et al. (2011) suggest that all five Arcticlittoral states will gain increased maritime access to their current exclusiveeconomic zones, especially Greenland (+28%, relative to baseline),Canada (+19%), Russia (+16%), and the USA (+15%). In contrast,Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland display little or no increase inmaritime accessibility (Table 28-1; Stephenson et al., 2011).

General Circulation Models (GCMs) developed for the AR4 generallyhave underestimated the duration of the ice-free period in the ArcticOcean and simulate slower changes than those observed in the pastdecades (Stroeve et al., 2007). Mokhow and Khon (2008) used a subsetof climate models that better reproduce observed sea ice dynamics thanother GCMs to project the duration of the navigation season along theNSR and through the NWP under the moderate SRES A1B emissionscenario. According to their results, by the end of the 21st century, theNSR may be open for navigation 4.5 ± 1.3 months per year, while theNWP may be open 2 to 4 months per year (see Figure 28-4). The modelsdid not predict any significant changes of the ice conditions in the NWPuntil the early 2030s.

An increase in the length of the summer shipping season, with sea iceduration expected to be 10 days shorter by 2020 and 20 to 30 daysshorter by 2080, is likely to be the most obvious impact of changingclimate on Arctic marine transportation (Prowse et al., 2009). Reductionin sea ice and increased marine traffic could offer opportunities foreconomic diversification in new service sectors supporting marineshipping. Loss of sea ice may open up waterways and opportunities forincreased cruise traffic (e.g., Glomsrød and Aslaksen, 2009), and add toan already rapid increase in cruise tourism (Howell et al., 2007; Stewartet al., 2007, 2010). Climate change has increased the prevalence ofcruise tourism throughout Greenland, Norway, Alaska, and Canadabecause of decreasing sea ice extent.

Projected declines in sea ice cover leading to development of integratedland and marine transportation networks in northern Canada maystimulate further mine exploration and development (Prowse et al., 2009).These possibilities, however, also come with challenges including theirpredicted contribution to the largest change in contaminant movementinto or within the Arctic, as well as their significant negative impacts

0

50

100

150

200

0

50

100

150

200

1985 2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090

1985 2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090

Nav

igat

ion

seas

on (d

ays)

(a) Northern Sea Route

Nav

igat

ion

seas

on (d

ays)

(b) Northwest Passage

Navigation season length from satellite data

Navigation season length estimated from all analyzed models

Inter-model standard deviations

Navigation season length estimated from “best” models

Inter-model standard deviations

Figure 28-4 | Projected duration of the navigation period (days) over the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route (Khon et al., 2010).

Page 27: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1593

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

on the traditional ways of life of northern residents (Furgal and Prowse,2008). Added shipping and economic activity will increase the amountof black carbon and reinforce warming trends in the region (Lack andCorbett, 2012), leading to additional economic activity.

A longer shipping season and improved access to ports may lead toincreased petroleum activities, although possible increased wave activityand coastal erosion may increase costs related to infrastructure andtechnology. Peters et al. (2011) find by using a bottom-up shippingmodel and a detailed global energy market model to construct emissioninventories of Arctic shipping and petroleum activities in 2030 and2050—and based on estimated sea ice extent—that there will be rapidgrowth in transit shipping; oil and gas production will be moving intolocations requiring more ship transport; and this will lead to rapidgrowth in emissions from oil and gas transport by ship.

The Arctic contains vast resources of oil, which is hard to replace astransportation fuel, and vast resources of gas, a more climate-benignfuel than coal. Petroleum resources are unevenly distributed amongArctic regions and states. Arctic resources will play a growing role inthe world economy, but increased accessibility is expected to createchallenges for extraction, transport, engineering, search-and-rescueneeds, and responses to accidents (Hovelsrud et al., 2011), and climaticchange presents the oil and gas industry with challenges in terms ofplanning and predictions (Harsem et al., 2011). Increased emissionsdue to rapid growth in Arctic Ocean transportation of oil and gas areprojected (Peters et al., 2011). Owing to high costs and difficult accessconditions, the impact on future oil and gas production in the Arcticremains unclear (Peters et al., 2011; Lindholdt and Glomsrød, 2012).

28.4. Human Adaptation

There is general agreement that both Indigenous and non-Indigenouspeople in the Arctic have a history of adapting to natural variability inthe climate and natural resource base, as well as recent socioeconomic,cultural, and technological changes (high confidence; Forbes and Stammler,2009; Wenzel, 2009; Ford and Pearce, 2010; West and Hovelsrud, 2010;Bolton et al., 2011; Cochran et al., 2013). Climate change exacerbatesthe existing stresses faced by Arctic communities (high confidence; Crateand Nuttall, 2009; Rybråten and Hovelsrud, 2010), and is only one of manyimportant factors influencing adaptation (Berrang-Ford et al., 2011).Climate adaptation needs to be seen in the context of these interconnectedand mutually reinforcing factors (Tyler et al., 2007; Hovelsrud and Smit,2010). The challenges faced today by communities in the Arctic arecomplex and interlinked and are testing their traditional adaptive capacity(low to medium confidence).

Climatic and other large-scale changes have potentially large effectson Arctic communities, in particular where simple economies leave anarrower range of adaptive choices (Berkes et al., 2003; Anisimov et al.,2007; Ford and Furgal, 2009; Andrachuk and Pearce, 2010; Ford et al.,2010; Forbes, 2011). There is considerable evidence that changingweather patterns, declining sea ice and river as well as lake ice, thawingpermafrost, and plant and animal species’ abundance and compositionhave consequences for communities in the Arctic (see Sections 28.2.4,28.2.5.2, and 28.3.4). Sea ice is particularly important for coastal

communities that rely upon it for transportation to and from huntingareas (Krupnik et al., 2010). Changes in the duration and condition of seaice and the consequent changes to country food availability significantlyimpact the well-being of communities (Furgal and Seguin, 2006; Fordand Berrang-Ford, 2009; Ford et al., 2010), outdoor tourism (Dawson etal., 2010), and hunting and fishing (high confidence; Wiig et al., 2008;Brander, 2010).

Adaptation to climate change is taking place at the local and regionallevels where impacts are often felt most acutely and the resources mostreadily available (Oskal, 2008; Hovelsrud and Smit, 2010). Currentexperiences and projections of future conditions often lead to technologicaladaptation responses such as flood and water management and snowavalanche protection (Hovelsrud and Smit, 2010; West and Hovelsrud,2010) rather than policy responses (Hedensted Lund et al., 2012;Rudberg et al., 2012). Climate variability and extreme events are foundto be salient drivers of adaptation (Amundsen et al., 2010; Berrang-Fordet al., 2011; Dannevig et al., 2012).

The lack of local scale climate projections, combined with uncertaintiesin future economic, social, and technological developments, often actas barriers to adaptation. These barriers, together with other societaldeterminants such as ethics, cultures, and attitudes toward risk, maycause inaction (Adger et al., 2009; West and Hovelsrud, 2010). Resolvingdivergent values across and within different communities poses achallenge for governance regimes. A determining factor in buildingadaptive capacity is the flexibility of enabling institutions to developrobust options (Forbes et al., 2009; Keskitalo et al., 2009; Hovelsrud andSmit, 2010; Ford and Goldhar, 2012; Whyte, 2013). Refer to Table 28-2for key climate-related risks and potential adaptation practices. In theNorth American and Scandinavian context, adaptive co-managementresponses have been developed through land claims settlements and/ormulti-scale institutional cooperation to foster social learning (Armitageet al., 2008; Berkes, 2009).

Indigenous Peoples

Although Arctic indigenous peoples with traditional lifestyles are facingunprecedented impacts to their ways of life from climate change andresource development (oil and gas, mining, forestry, hydropower, tourism,etc.), they are already implementing creative ways of adapting (highconfidence; Cruikshank, 2001; Forbes et al., 2006; Krupnik and Ray,2007; Salick and Ross, 2009; Green and Raygorodetsky, 2010; Alexanderet al., 2011; Cullen-Unsworth et al., 2011).

While many of these adaptation activities tend to be short term orreactive in nature (e.g., dealing with other issues such as disaster responseplanning), some Indigenous communities are beginning to developmore formal adaptation plans (Galloway-McLean, 2010; Brubaker et al.,2011b,c; Nakashima et al., 2012). Comprehensive adaptation planningmust take into account underlying social issues of some Indigenouspopulations when addressing the new challenges from climate anddevelopment. Indigenous communities are especially vulnerable to climatechange because of their strong dependence on the environment forfood, culture, and way of life; their political and economic marginalization;the social, health, and poverty disparities; and community locations

Page 28: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1594

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

along exposed ocean, lake, or river shorelines (Ford and Furgal, 2009;Galloway-McLean, 2010; Larsen et al., 2010; Cochran et al., 2013).

The adaptive capacity of Arctic Indigenous peoples is largely due to anextensive traditional knowledge and cultural repertoire, and flexiblesocial networks (medium confidence; Williams and Hardison, 2013; seeSection 12.3). The dynamic nature of traditional knowledge is valuablefor adapting to current conditions (Kitti et al., 2006; Tyler et al., 2007; Eiraet al., 2012). The sharing of knowledge ensures rapid responses to crises(Ford et al., 2007). In addition, cultural values such as sharing, patience,persistence, calmness, and respect for elders and the environment areimportant. Some studies suggest that traditional knowledge may notalways be sufficient to meet the rapid changes in climate (see Chapter12) and it may be perceived to be less reliable because the changingconditions are beyond the current knowledge range (Ingram et al., 2002;Ford et al., 2006; Hovelsrud et al., 2010; Valdivia et al., 2010).

Over the last half-century, the adaptive capacity in some Indigenouscommunities has been challenged by the transition from semi-nomadichunting groups to permanent settlements, accompanied by impacts tohealth and well-being from loss of connection to the land, traditionalfoods, and culture (Ford et al., 2010; Galloway-McLean, 2010). Forcedor voluntary migration as an adaptation response can have deepcultural impacts (Shearer, 2011, 2012; Maldonado et al., 2013). On theother hand, the establishment of permanent communities, particularlythose associated with new industrial development, can also lead toincreasing employment opportunities and income diversification forIndigenous peoples. The intergenerational transfers of knowledgeand skills through school curricula, land camps, and involvement incommunity-based monitoring programs may strengthen adaptive

capacity (Forbes 2007; Ford et al., 2007; Hovelsrud and Smit, 2010;Bolton et al., 2011).

Examples of Indigenous adaptation strategies have included changingresource bases; shifting land use and/or settlement areas; combiningtechnologies with traditional knowledge; changing timing and locationof hunting, gathering, herding, and fishing areas; and improvingcommunications and education (Galloway-McLean, 2010). Protectionof grazing land will be the most important adaptive strategy for reindeerherders under climate change (Forbes et al., 2009; Magga et al., 2011;Kumpula et al., 2012; Degteva and Nellemann, 2013; Mathiesen et al.,2013). Renewable resource harvesting remains a significant componentof Arctic livelihoods, and with climate change hunting and fishing hasbecome a riskier undertaking and many communities are already adapting(Gearheard et al., 2011; Laidler et al., 2011). Adaptation includes takingmore supplies when hunting, constructing permanent shelters on landas refuges from storms, improved communications infrastructure, greateruse of global positioning systems (GPS) for navigation, synthetic apertureradar (SAR) to provide estimates of sea ice conditions (Laidler et al.,2011), and the use of larger or faster vehicles (Ford et al., 2010). Avoidingdangerous terrain can result in longer and time-consuming journeysthat can be inconvenient to those with wage-earning employment (Fordet al., 2007).

Reindeer herders have developed a wide range of adaptation strategiesin response to changing pasture conditions. These include moving herdsto better pastures (Bartsch et al., 2010), providing supplemental feeding(Helle and Jaakkola, 2008; Forbes and Kumpula, 2009), retaining a fewcastrated reindeer males to break through heavy ice crust (Oskal, 2008;Reinert et al., 2008), ensuring an optimal herd size (Tyler et al., 2007;

Ocean acidification

CO O

Climate-related drivers of impacts

Warming trend

Level of risk & potential for adaptationPotential for additional adaptation

to reduce risk

Risk level with current adaptation

Risk level with high adaptation

Snow cover

Table 28-2 |Key climate-related risks in the Arctic and Antarctic, and potential adaptation practices.

Verylow

Very high Medium

Key risk Adaptation issues & prospects Climaticdrivers

Risk & potential for adaptationTimeframe

Near term (2030–2040)

Present

Long term(2080–2100)

2°C

4°C

Verylow

Very high Medium

Near term (2030–2040)

Present

Long term(2080–2100)

2°C

4°C

Verylow

Very high Medium

CO O

Risks for freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems (high confidence) and marine ecosystems (medium confidence), due to changes in ice, snow cover, permafrost, and freshwater/ocean conditions, affecting species´ habitat quality, ranges, phenology, and productivity, as well as dependent economies

[28.2-4]

• Improved understanding through scientific and indigenous knowledge, producing more effective solutions and/or technological innovations• Enhanced monitoring, regulation, and warning systems that achieve safe and sustainable use of ecosystem resources• Hunting or fishing for different species, if possible, and diversifying income sources

Risks for the health and well-being of Arctic residents, resulting from injuries and illness from the changing physical environment, food insecurity, lack of reliable and safe drinking water, and damage to infrastructure, including infrastructure in permafrost regions (high confidence)

[28.2-4]

• Co-production of more robust solutions that combine science and technology with indigenous knowledge • Enhanced observation, monitoring, and warning systems• Improved communications, education, and training • Shifting resource bases, land use, and/or settlement areas

Near term (2030–2040)

Present

Long term(2080–2100)

2°C

4°C

Unprecedented challenges for northern communities due to complex inter-linkages between climate-related hazards and societal factors, particularly if rate of change is faster than social systems can adapt (high confidence)

[28.2-4]

• Co-production of more robust solutions that combine science and technology with indigenous knowledge • Enhanced observation, monitoring, and warning systems • Improved communications, education, and training• Adaptive co-management responses developed through the settlement of land claims

Page 29: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1595

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

Forbes et al., 2009), and creating multicultural initiatives combiningtraditional with scientific knowledge (Vuojala-Magga et al., 2011). Coastalfishers have adapted to changing climate by targeting different speciesand diversifying income sources (Hovelsrud et al., 2010).

In some Arctic countries Indigenous peoples have successfully negotiatedland claims rights and have become key players in addressing climatechange (Abele et al., 2009). In some instances, this has given rise totensions over land/water use between traditional livelihoods and newopportunities, for example, tourism and natural resource development(Forbes et al., 2006; Hovelsrud and Smit, 2010). Some territorialgovernments in northern Canada have promoted adaptation by providinghunter support programs (Ford et al., 2006, 2010).

Health of many Indigenous people is being affected by the interactionof changes in the climate with ongoing changes in human, economic,and biophysical systems (Donaldson et al., 2010). The distribution oftraditional foods between communities and the use of communityfreezers in the Canadian Arctic has improved food security, an importantfactor for health (Ford et al., 2010). Although wage employment may

enhance the possibilities for adaptive capacity, greater involvement infull-time jobs can threaten social and cultural cohesion and mental well-being by disrupting the traditional cycle of land-based practices (Berneret al., 2005; Furgal, 2008).

28.5. Research and Data Gaps

There remains a poor knowledge of coupling among, and thresholdswithin, biogeophysical and socioeconomic processes to fully assess theeffects of a changing climate, and to separate them from those due toother environmental stressors:• Existing integrative models are either lacking or insufficiently

validated to project and to assess the cascading effects on, andfeedbacks from, the systems in the polar regions, in particularsocioeconomic systems.

• There is a need to enhance or establish a coordinated network oflong-term representative sites for monitoring and assessment ofclimate change detection and attribution studies in the polar regions.Regional differences and confounding variables will need to be

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 28.1 | What will be the net socioeconomic impacts of change in the polar regions?

Climate change will have costs and benefits for polar regions. Climate change, exacerbated by other large-scalechanges, can have potentially large effects on Arctic communities, where relatively simple economies leave a narrowerrange of adaptive choices.

In the Arctic, positive impacts include new possibilities for economic diversification, marine shipping, agriculturalproduction, forestry, and tourism. The Northern Sea Route is predicted to have up to 125 days per year suitable fornavigation by 2050, while the heating energy demand in the populated Arctic areas is predicted to decline by 15%.In addition, there could be greater accessibility to offshore mineral and energy resources although challenges relatedto environmental impacts and traditional livelihoods are possible.

Changing sea ice condition and permafrost thawing may cause damage to bridges, pipelines, drilling platforms,hydropower, and other infrastructure. This poses major economic costs and human risks, although these impacts areclosely linked to the design of the structure. Furthermore, warmer winter temperatures will shorten the accessibilityof ice roads that are critical for communications between settlements and economic development and haveimplications for increased costs. Statistically, a long-term mean increase of 2°C to 3°C in autumn and spring airtemperature produces an approximately 10- to 15-day delay in freeze-up and advance in break-up, respectively.

Particular concerns are associated with projected increase in the frequency and severity of ice-jam floods on Siberianrivers. They may have potentially catastrophic consequences for the villages and cities located in the river plain, asexemplified by the 2001 Lena River flood, which demolished most of the buildings in the city of Lensk.

Changing sea ice conditions will impact Indigenous livelihoods, and changes in resources, including marine mammals,could represent a significant economic loss for many local communities. Food security and health and well-beingare expected to be impacted negatively.

In the Antarctic, tourism is expected to increase, and risks exist of accidental pollution from maritime accidents,along with an increasing likelihood of the introduction of alien species to terrestrial environments. Fishing forAntarctic krill near the Antarctic continent is expected to become more common during winter months in areaswhere there is less winter sea ice.

Page 30: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1596

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

considered in designing field and modeling studies. Standardizedmethods and approaches of biophysical and socioeconomic analysisalong with coordinated sampling in more regions will be necessary.

There are more specific research gaps, including:• Many mechanisms of how climate change and ocean acidification

may be affecting polar ecosystems have been proposed but fewstudies of physiological tolerances of species, long-term field studiesof ecosystem effects, and ecosystem modeling studies are availableto be able to attribute with high confidence current and futurechange in these ecosystems to climate change.

• More comprehensive studies including long-term monitoring on theincreasing impacts from climate changes on Arctic communities(urban and rural) and their health, well-being, traditional livelihoods,and life ways are needed. There is a need to assess more fullyvulnerabilities and to develop response capacities at the local andregional levels.

References

Aaheim, A., H. Dannevig, T. Ericsson, B. van Oort, L. Innbjør, T. Rauken, H. Vennemo, H.Johansen, M. Tofteng, C. Aall, K. Groven, and E. Heiberg, 2009. Konsekvenser avKlimaendringer, Tilpasning og Sårbarhet i Norge – Rapport Klimatilpasningsutvalget.CICERO Report 2009:04, Center for International Climate and EnvironmentalResearch (CICERO), Oslo, Norway, 228 pp. (in Norwegian).

Abele, F., T.J. Courchene, F.L. Sidele, and F. St-Hilaire (eds.), 2009: Northern Exposure:Peoples, Powers and Prospects in Canada’s North. Art of the State Series, Vol. 4,The Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP) and McGill-Queen’s UniversityPress, Montréal, QC, Canada, 605 pp.

Abryutina, L.I., 2009: Indigenous peoples of the Russian North: social and climaticchanges. In: Climate Change and Arctic Sustainable Development: Scientific, Social,Cultural, and Educational Challenges. United Nations Educational, Scientific,and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Paris, France, pp. 164-173.

Adam, J.C., A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2009: Implications of global climatechange for snowmelt hydrology in the twenty-first century. HydrologicalProcesses, 23(7), 962-972.

Adger, W., S. Dessai, M. Goulden, M. Hulme, I. Lorenzoni, D. Nelson, L. Naess, J. Wolf,and A. Wreford, 2009: Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?Climatic Change, 93(3), 335-354.

Albrecht, G., G.-M. Sartore, L. Connor, N. Higginbotham, S. Freeman, B. Kelly, H. Stain,A. Tonna, and G. Pollard, 2007: Solastalgia: the distress caused by environmentalchange. Australasian Psychiatry, 15(Suppl.), S95-S98.

Alexander, C., N. Bynum, E. Johnson, U. King, T. Mustonen, P. Neofotis, N. Oettlé, C.Rosenzweig, C. Sakakibara, V. Shadrin, M. Vicarelli, Jon Waterhouse, and B.Weeks, 2011: Linking indigenous and scientific knowledge of climate change.BioScience, 61(6), 477-484.

AMAP, 2009: AMAP Assessment 2009: Human Health in the Arctic. Arctic Monitoringand Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway, 254 pp.

AMAP, 2010: AMAP Assessment 2009: Radioactivity in the Arctic. Arctic Monitoringand Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway, 92 pp.

AMAP, 2011a: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Changeand the Cryosphere. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP),Oslo, Norway, 538 pp.

AMAP, 2011b: Arctic Pollution 2011. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme(AMAP), Oslo, Norway, 38 pp.

Amstrup, S.C., I. Stirling, T.S. Smith, C. Perham, and G.W. Thiemann, 2006: Recentobservations of intraspecific predation and cannibalism among polar bears inthe southern Beaufort Sea. Polar Biology, 29(11), 997-1002.

Amstrup, S.C., B.G. Marcot, and D.C. Douglas, 2008: A Bayesian network approachto forecasting the 21st century worldwide status of polar bears. In: Arctic SeaIce Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications[DeWeaver, E.T., C.M. Bitz, and L.B. Tremblay (eds.)]. American GeophysicalUnion (AGU), Washington, DC, USA, 213 pp.

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ 28.2 | Why are changes in sea ice so important to the polar regions?

Sea ice is a dominant feature of polar oceans. Shifts in the distribution and extent of sea ice during the growingseason impacts the duration, magnitude, and species composition of primary and secondary production in the polarregions. With less sea ice many marine ecosystems will experience more light, which can accelerate the growth ofphytoplankton, and shift the balance between the primary production by ice algae and water-borne phytoplankton,with implications for Arctic food webs. In contrast, sea ice is also an important habitat for juvenile Antarctic krill,providing food and protection from predators. Krill is a basic food source for many species in polar marine ecosystems.

Changes in sea ice will have other impacts, beyond these “bottom-up” consequences for marine food webs. Mammalsand birds utilize sea ice as haul-outs during foraging trips (seals, walrus, and polar bears in the Arctic and seals andpenguins in the Antarctic). Some seals (e.g., bearded seals in the Arctic and crab eater and leopard seals in theAntarctic) give birth and nurse pups in pack ice. Shifts in the spatial distribution and extent of sea ice will alter thespatial overlap of predators and their prey. According to model projections, within 50 to 70 years, loss of huntinghabitats may lead to elimination of polar bears from seasonally ice-covered areas, where two-thirds of their worldpopulation currently live. The vulnerability of marine species to changes in sea ice will depend on the exposure tochange, which will vary by location, as well as the sensitivity of the species to changing environmental conditionsand the adaptive capacity of each species. More open waters and longer ice-free periods in the northern seas enhancethe effect of wave action and coastal erosion, with implications for coastal communities and infrastructure.

Although the overall sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has not changed markedly in recent decades, there havebeen increases in oceanic temperatures and large regional decreases in winter sea ice extent and duration in thewestern Antarctic Peninsula region of West Antarctica and the islands of the Scotia Arc.

Page 31: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1597

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

Amstrup, S.C., H. Caswell, E. DeWeaver, I. Stirling, D.C. Douglas, B.G. Marcot, andC.M. Hunter, 2009: Rebuttal of “Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policyforecasting audit”. Interfaces, 39(4), 353-369.

Amstrup, S.C., E.T. DeWeaver, D.C. Douglas, B.G. Marcot, G.M. Durner, C.M. Bitz, andD.A. Bailey, 2010: Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss andincrease polar bear persistence. Nature, 468(7326), 955-958.

Amundsen, H., F. Berglund, and H. Westskog, 2010: Overcoming barriers to climatechange adaptation – a question of multilevel governance? Environment andPlanning C: Government and Policy, 28(2), 276-289.

Andrachuk, M. and T. Pearce, 2010: Vulnerability and adaptation in two communitiesin the Inuvialuit settlement region. In: Community Adaptation and Vulnerabilityin Arctic Regions [Hovelsrud, G.K. and B. Smit (eds.)]. Springer, Dordrecht,Netherlands, pp. 63-81.

Anisimov, O.A., D.G. Vaughan, T.V. Callaghan, C. Furgal, H. Marchant, T.D. Prowse, H.Vilhjálmsson, and J.E. Walsh, 2007: Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic). In:Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution ofWorking Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van derLinden, and C.E. Hanson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UKand New York, NY, USA, pp. 653-685.

Anisimov, O.A., E.L. Zhil’tsova, and S.A. Reneva, 2011: Estimation of critical levels ofclimate change influence on the natural terrestrial ecosystems on the territoryof Russia. Meteorology and Hydrology, 36(11), 723-730.

Arctic Council, 2013: Arctic Resilience Interim Report 2013. Stockholm EnvironmentInstitute (SEI) and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden, 117 pp.

Armitage, D., 2008: Governance and the commons in a multi-level world. InternationalJournal of the Commons, 2(1), 7-32.

Armitage, J.M., C.L. Quinn, and F. Wania, 2011: Global climate change and contaminants– an overview of opportunities and priorities for modeling the potentialimplications for long-term human exposure to organic compounds in the Arctic.Journal of Environmental Monitoring, 13(6), 1532-1546.

Armstrong, J.S., K.C. Green, and W. Soon, 2008: Polar bear population forecasts: apublic-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces, 38(5), 382-395.

Arnason, R., 2012: Global warming: new challenges for the common fisheries policy?Ocean & Coastal Management, 70, 4-9.

Arrigo, K., G. van Dijken, and S. Bushinsky, 2008: Primary production in the SouthernOcean, 1997-2006. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 113(C8), C08004,doi:10.1029/2007JC004551.

Arrigo, K.R. and G.L. van Dijken, 2011: Secular trends in Arctic Ocean net primaryproduction. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 116(C9), C09011,doi:10.1029/2011JC007151.

Arrigo, K.R., D.K. Perovich, R.S. Pickart, Z.W. Brown, G.L. van Dijken, K.E. Lowry, M.M.Mills, M.A. Palmer, W.M. Balch, F. Bahr, N.R. Bates, C. Benitez-Nelson, B. Bowler,E. Brownlee, J.K. Ehn, K.E. Frey, R. Garley, S.R. Laney, L. Lubelczyk, J. Mathis, A.Matsuoka, B.G. Mitchell, G.W.K. Moore, E. Ortega-Retuerta, S. Pal, C.M.Polashenski, R.A. Reynolds, B. Schieber, H.M. Sosik, M. Stephens, and J.H. Swift,2012: Massive phytoplankton blooms under Arctic sea ice. Science, 336(6087),1408-1408.

Astthorsson, O.S., H. Valdimarsson, A. Gudmundsdottir, and G.J. Óskarsson, 2012:Climate-related variations in the occurrence and distribution of mackerel(Scomber scombrus) in Icelandic waters. International Council for theExploration of the Sea (ICES) Journal of Marine Science, 69(7), 1289-1297.

Atkinson, A., V. Siegel, E. Pakhomov, and P. Rothery, 2004: Long-term decline in krill stockand increase in salps within the Southern Ocean. Nature, 432(7013), 100-103.

Bajzak, C.E., M.O. Hammill, G.B. Stenson, and S. Prinsenberg, 2011: Drifting away:implications of changes in ice conditions for a pack-ice-breeding phocid, the harpseal (Pagophilus groenlandicus). Canadian Journal of Zoology, 89(11), 1050-1062.

Bakun, A., 2010: Linking climate to population variability in marine ecosystemscharacterized by non-simple dynamics: conceptual templates and schematicconstructs. Journal of Marine Systems, 79(3-4), 361-373.

Balayla, D., T. Lauridsen, M. Søndergaard, and E. Jeppesen, 2010: Larger zooplanktonin Danish lakes after cold winters: are winter fish kills of importance?Hydrobiologia, 646(1), 159-172.

Barber, D.G., J.V. Lukovich, J. Keogak, S. Baryluk, L. Fortier, and G.H.R. Henry, 2008:The changing climate of the Arctic. Arctic, 61(1 Suppl.), 7-26.

Barbraud, C., C. Marteau, V. Ridoux, K. Delord, and H. Weimerskirch, 2008:Demographic response of a population of white-chinned petrels Procellariaaequinoctialis to climate and longline fishery bycatch. Journal of AppliedEcology, 45(5), 1460-1467.

Barbraud, C., P. Rivalan, P. Inchausti, M. Nevoux, V. Rolland, and H. Weimerskirch,2011: Contrasted demographic responses facing future climate change inSouthern Ocean seabirds. Journal of Animal Ecology, 80(1), 89-100.

Barbraud, C., V. Rolland, S. Jenouvrier, M. Nevoux, K. Delord, and H. Weimerskirch,2012: Effects of climate change and fisheries bycatch on Southern Oceanseabirds: a review. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 454, 285-307.

Barnes, D.K.A. and T. Souster, 2011: Reduced survival of Antarctic benthos linked toclimate-induced iceberg scouring. Nature Climate Change, 1(7), 365-368.

Barnes, D.K.A., D.A. Hodgson, P. Convey, C.S. Allen, and A. Clarke, 2006: Incursionand excursion of Antarctic biota: past, present and future. Global Ecology andBiogeography, 15(2), 121-142

Bartsch, A., T. Kumpula, B.C. Forbes, and F. Stammler, 2010: Detection of snow surfacethawing and refreezing in the Eurasian Arctic with QuikSCAT: implications forreindeer herding. Ecological Applications, 20(8), 2346-2358.

Beaugrand, G. and R.R. Kirby, 2010: Spatial changes in the sensitivity of Atlanticcod to climate-driven effects in the plankton. Climate Research, 41(1), 15-19.

Bednarsek, N., G.A. Tarling, D.C.E. Bakker, S. Fielding, E.M. Jones, H.J. Venables, P. Ward,A. Kuzirian, B. Leze, R.A. Feely, and E.J. Murphy, 2012: Extensive dissolution oflive pteropods in the Southern Ocean. Nature Geoscience, 5(12), 881-885.

Beltaos, S. and T.D. Prowse, 2009: River ice hydrology in a shrinking cryosphere.Hydrological Processes, 23(1), 122-144.

Berg, T.B., N.M. Schmidt., T.T. Høye., P.J. Aastrup., D.K. Hendrichsen., M.C. Forchhammer,and D.R. Klein, 2008: High-Arctic plant-herbivore interactions under climateinfluence. In: High-Arctic Ecosystem Dynamics in a Changing Climate [Meltofte,H., T.R. Christensen, B. Elberling, M.C. Forchhammer, and M. Rasch (eds.)].Advances in Ecological Research Series, Vol. 40, Elsevier Science and Technology/Academic Press, Waltham, MA, USA, pp. 275-298.

Berkes, F., 2009: Evolution of co-management: role of knowledge generation, bridgingorganizations and social learning. Journal of Environmental Management,90(5), 1692-1702.

Berkes, F. and D. Armitage, 2010: Co-management institutions, knowledge and learning:adapting to change in the Arctic. Etudes Inuit Studies, 34(1), 109-131.

Berkman, P.A., 2010: Environmental Security in the Arctic Ocean: Promoting Co-operation and Preventing Conflict. Whitehall Papers (WHP) Series, 75, publishedon behalf of The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studiesby Routledge Journals, Abingdon, UK, 119 pp.

Berrang-Ford, L., J.D. Ford, and J. Paterson, 2011: Are we adapting to climate change?Global Environmental Change, 21(1), 25-33.

Bhatt, U.S., D.A. Walker, M.K. Raynolds, J.C. Comiso, H.E. Epstein, G. Jia, R. Gens, J.E.Pinzon, C.J. Tucker, C.E. Tweedie, and P.J. Webber, 2010: Circumpolar Arctic tundravegetation change is linked to sea ice decline. Earth Interactions, 14(8), 1-20.

Björk, R.G. and U. Molau, 2007: Ecology of alpine snowbeds and the impact of globalchange. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 39(1), 34-43.

Björnsson, H., T. Johannesson, and A. Snorrason, 2011: Recent climate change, projectedimpacts and adaptation capacity in Iceland. In: Climate: Global Change and LocalAdaptation (Linkov, I. and T.S. Bridges (eds.)]. NATO Science for Peace and SecuritySeries C: Environmental Security, Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 465-475.

Bluhm, B.A. and R. Gradinger, 2008: Regional variability in food availability for Arcticmarine mammals. Ecological Applications, 18(2 Suppl.), S77-S96.

Bockheim, J., G. Vieira, M. Ramos, J. Lopez-Martinez, E. Serrano, M. Guglielmin, K.Wilhelm, and A. Nieuwendam, 2013: Climate warming and permafrost dynamicsin the Antarctic Peninsula region. Global and Planetary Change, 100, 215-223.

Bogoyavlensky, D. and A. Siggner, 2004: Arctic demography. In: Arctic HumanDevelopment Report [Einarsson, N., J.N. Larsen, A. Nilsson, and O.R. Young(eds.)]. Stefansson Arctic Institute, Akureyri, Iceland, pp. 27-44.

Bokhorst, S.F., J.W. Bjerke, H. Tømmervik, T.V. Callaghan, and G.K. Phoenix, 2009:Winter warming events damage sub-Arctic vegetation: consistent evidencefrom an experimental manipulation and a natural event. Journal of Ecology,97(6), 1408-1415.

Bokhorst, S., J.W. Bjerke, L.E. Street, T.V. Callaghan, and G.K. Phoenix, 2011: Impactsof multiple extreme winter warming events on sub-Arctic heathland: phenology,reproduction, growth, and CO2 flux responses. Global Change Biology, 17(9),2817-2830.

Bolton, K., M. Lougheed, J. Ford, S. Nickels, C. Grable, and J. Shirley, 2011: What WeKnow, Don’t Know, and Need to Know about Climate Change in Nunavut,Nunavik, and Nunatsiavut: A Systematic Literature Review and Gap Analysisof the Canadian Arctic. Final report submitted to the Department of Indian andNorthern Affairs Canada, Climate Change Adaptation Program (CCAP), InuitTapiriit Kanatami, Ottawa, ON, Canada, 128 pp.

Page 32: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1598

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Borgstrøm, R. and J. Museth, 2005: Accumulated snow and summer temperature?Critical factors for recruitment to high mountain populations of brown trout(Salmo trutta L.). Ecology of Freshwater Fish, 14(4), 375-384.

Bouchard, C. and L. Fortier, 2011: Circum-arctic comparison of the hatching seasonof polar cod Boreogadus saida: a test of the freshwater winter refuge hypothesis.Progress in Oceanography, 90(1-4), 105-116.

Bowden, W.B., M.N. Gooseff, A. Balser, A. Green, B.J. Peterson, and J. Bradford, 2008:Sediment and nutrient delivery from thermokarst features in the foothills of theNorth Slope, Alaska: potential impacts on headwater stream ecosystems. Journalof Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 113(G2), G02026, doi:10.1029/2007JG000470.

Boyd, P.W., K.R. Arrigo, R. Strzepek, and G.L. van Dijken, 2012: Mapping phytoplanktoniron utilization: insights into Southern Ocean supply mechanisms. Journal ofGeophysical Research: Oceans, 117(C6), C06009, doi:10.1029/2011JC007726.

Brander, K.M., 2010: Cod Gadus morhua and climate change: processes, productivityand prediction. Journal of Fish Biology, 77(8), 1899-1911.

Braun, C., O. Mustafa, A. Nordt, S. Pfeiffer, and H. Peter, 2012: Environmentalmonitoring and management proposals for the Fildes Region, King GeorgeIsland, Antarctic. Polar Research, 31, 18206, doi:10.3402/polar.v31i0.18206.

Briffa, K.R., V.V. Shishov, T.M. Melvin, E.A. Vaganov, H. Grudd, R.M. Hantemirov, M.Eronen, and M.M. Naurzbaev, 2008: Trends in recent temperature and radialtree growth spanning 2000 years across northwest Eurasia. PhilosophicalTransactions of the Royal Society B, 363(1501), 2271-2284.

Brommer, J.E., H. Pietiäinen, K. Ahola, P. Karell, T. Karstinenz, and H. Kolunen, 2010:The return of the vole cycle in southern Finland refutes the generality of the lossof cycles through ‘climatic forcing’. Global Change Biology, 16(2), 577-586.

Bronen, R., 2009: Forced migration of Alaskan indigenous communities due to climatechange: creating a human rights response. In: Linking Environmental Change,Migration and Social Vulnerability [Oliver-Smith, A. and X. Shen (eds.)]. Outcomesof the 3rd UNU-EHS Summer Academy of the Munich Re Chair on SocialVulnerability, 27 July-2 August 2008, Hohenkammer, Germany, Studies of theUniversity: Research, Counsel, and Education (SOURCE) publication 12/2009,United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn, Germany, pp. 68-73.

Bronen, R., 2011: Climate-induced community relocations: creating an adaptivegovernance framework based in human rights doctrine. NYU Review of Lawand Social Change 35, 357-406.

Brown, Z.W. and K.R. Arrigo, 2013: Sea ice impacts on spring bloom dynamics andnet primary production in the eastern Bering Sea. Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Oceans, 118(1), 43-62.

Brubaker, M., J. Berner, J. Bell, and J. Warren, 2011a: Climate Change in Kivalinla,Alaska: Strategies for Community Health. Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium(ANTHC), Anchorage, AK, USA, 66 pp.

Brubaker, M.Y., J.N. Bell, J.E. Berner, and J.A. Warren, 2011b: Climate change healthassessment: a novel approach for Alaska Native communities. InternationalJournal of Circumpolar Health, 70(3), 266-273.

Brubaker, M., J. Berner, R. Chavan, and J. Warren, 2011c: Climate change and healtheffects in northwest Alaska. Global Health Action, 4, 8445, doi:10.3402/gha.v4i0.8445.

Burek, K.A., F.M.D. Gulland, and T.M. O’Hara, 2008: Effects of climate change on Arcticmarine mammal health. Ecological Applications, 18(2 Suppl.), S126-S134.

Byrd, G.V., J.A. Schmutz, and H.M. Renner, 2008: Contrasting population trends ofpiscivorous seabirds in the Pribilof Islands: a 30-year perspective. Deep-SeaResearch Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 55(16-17), 1846-1855.

CAFF, 2013: Arctic Biodiversity Assessment: Status and Trends in Arctic Biodiversity.Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), Akureyri, Iceland, 557 pp.

Callaghan, T.V., L.O. Björn, Y. Chernov, F.S. Chapin III, T.R. Christensen, B. Huntley, R.Ims, S. Jonasson, D. Jolly, N. Matveyeva, N. Panikov, W.C. Oechel, G.R. Shaver, J.Elster, H. Henttonen, I.S. Jónsdóttir, K. Laine, S. Schaphoff, S. Sitch, E. Taulavuori,K. Taulavuori, and C. Zöckler, 2005: Tundra and polar desert ecosystems. In:ACIA. Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment [Symon, C., L. Arris, and B. Heal (eds.)].Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 243-352.

Callaghan, T.V., F. Bergholm, T.R. Christensen, C. Jonasson, U. Kokfelt, and M. Johansson,2010: A new climate era in the sub-Arctic: accelerating climate changes andmultiple impacts. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(14), L14705, doi:10.1029/2009GL042064.

Callaghan, T.V., T.R. Christensen, and E.J. Jantze, 2011a: Plant and vegetationdynamics on Disko Island, west Greenland: snapshots separated by over 40years. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 40(6), 624-637.

Callaghan, T.V., C.E. Tweedie, J. Åkerman, C. Andrews, J. Bergstedt, M.G. Butler, T.R.Christensen, D. Cooley, U. Dahlberg, R.K. Danby, F.J.A. Daniëls, J.G. de Molenaar,J. Dick, C.E. Mortensen, D. Ebert-May, U. Emanuelsson, H. Eriksson, H. Hedenås,G.H.R. Henry, D.S. Hik, J.E. Hobbie, E.J. Jantze, C. Jaspers, C. Johansson, M.Johansson, D.R. Johnson, J.F. Johnstone, C. Jonasson, C. Kennedy, A.J. Kenney,F. Keuper, S. Koh, C.J. Krebs, H. Lantuit, M.J. Lara, D. Lin, V.L. Lougheed, J. Madsen,N. Matveyeva, D.C. McEwen, I.H. Myers-Smith, Y.K. Narozhniy, H. Olsson, V.A.Pohjola, L.W. Price, F. Rigét, S. Rundqvist, A. Sandström, M. Tamstorf, R. VanBogaert, S. Villarreal, P.J. Webber, and V.A. Zemtsov, 2011b: Multi-decadalchanges in tundra environments and ecosystems: synthesis of the InternationalPolar Year-Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF). AMBIO: A Journal of the HumanEnvironment, 40(6), 705-716.

Callaghan, T.V., M. Johansson, R.D. Brown, P.Y. Groisman, N. Labba, and V. Radionov,2011c: Changing snow cover and its impacts. In: Snow, Water, Ice andPermafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA). Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme(AMAP), Oslo, Norway, pp. 4-1 to 4-58.

Callaghan, T.V., C. Jonasson, T. Thierfelder, Z. Yang, H. Hedenås, M. Johansson, U.Molau, R. Van Bogaert, A. Michelsen, J. Olofsson, D. Gwynn-Jones, S. Bokhorst,G. Phoenix, J. W. Bjerke, H. Tømmervik, T.R. Christensen, E. Hanna, E. K. Koller,and V.L. Sloan, 2013: Ecosystem change and stability over multiple decades inthe Swedish subarctic: complex processes and multiple drivers. PhilosophicalTransactions of the Royal Society B, 368(1624), 20120488, doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0488.

Carrie, J., F. Wang, H. Sanei, R.W. Macdonald, P.M. Outridge, and G.A. Stern, 2010:Increasing contaminant burdens in an Arctic fish, Burbot (Lota lota), in awarming climate. Environmental Science & Technology, 44(1), 316-322.

Castro de la Guardia, L., A.E. Derocher, P.G. Myers, A.D. Terwisscha van Scheltinga,and N.J. Lunn, 2013: Future sea ice conditions in western Hudson Bay andconsequences for polar bears in the 21st century. Global Change Biology, 19(9),2675-2687.

Chapman, E.W., E.E. Hofmann, D.L. Patterson, C.A. Ribic, and W.R. Fraser, 2011:Marine and terrestrial factors affecting Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae chickgrowth and recruitment off the western Antarctic Peninsula. Marine EcologyProgress Series, 436, 273-289.

Cherosov, M.M., A.P. Isaev, V.I. Mironova, L.P. Lytkina, L.D. Gavrilyeva, R.R. Sofronov,A.P. Arzhakova, N.V. Barashkova, I.A. Ivanov, I.F. Shurduk, A.P. Efimova, N.S.Karpov, P.A. Timofeyev, and L.V. Kuznetsova, 2010: Vegetation and humanactivity. In: The Far North: Plant Biodiversity and Ecology of Yakutia [Troeva,E.I., A.P. Isaev, M.M. Cherosov, and N.S. Karpov (eds.)]. Springer, Berlin, Germany,pp. 261-295.

Cherry, S.G., A.E. Derocher, I. Stirling, and E.S. Richardson, 2009: Fasting physiologyof polar bears in relation to environmental change and breeding behavior inthe Beaufort Sea. Polar Biology, 32(3), 383-391.

Cheung, W.W.L., V.W.Y. Lam, J.L. Sarmiento, K. Kearney, R. Watson, and D. Pauly, 2009:Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios.Fish and Fisheries, 10(3), 235-251.

Cheung, W.W.L., J. Dunne, J.L. Sarmienot, and D. Pauly, 2011: Integrating ecophysiologyand plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential underclimate change in the Northeast Atlantic. International Council for theExploration of the Sea (ICES) Journal of Marine Fisheries, 68(6), 1008-1018.

Chierici, M. and A. Fransson, 2009: Calcium carbonate saturation in the surfacewater of the Arctic Ocean: undersaturation in freshwater influenced shelves.Biogeosciences, 6(11), 2421-2431.

Chown, S.L., J.E. Lee, K.A. Hughes, J. Barmes, P.J. Barrett, D.M. Bergstrom, P. Convey,D.A. Cowan, K. Crosbie, G. Dyer, Y. Frenot, S.M. Grant, D. Herr, M.C.I. Kennicutt, M.Lamers, A. Murray, H.P. Possingham, K. Reid, M.J. Riddle, P.G. Ryan, L. Sanson, J.D.Shaw, M.D. Sparrow, C. Summerhayes, A. Terauds, and D.H. Wall, 2012: Challengesto the future conservation of the Antarctic. Science, 337(6091), 158-159.

Christoffersen, K.S., S.L. Amsinck, F. Landkildehus, T.L. Lauridsen, and E. Jeppesen,2008: Lake flora and fauna in relation to ice-melt, water temperature andchemistry at Zackenberg. In: High-Arctic Ecosystem Dynamics in a ChangingClimate [Meltofte, H., T.R. Christensen, B. Elberling, M.C. Forchhammer, and M.Rasch (eds.)]. Advances in Ecological Research Series, Vol. 40, Elsevier Scienceand Technology/Academic Press, Waltham, MA, USA, pp. 371-389.

Clark, D.A., D.S. Lee, M.M.R. Freeman, and S.G. Clark, 2008: Polar bear conservationin Canada: defining the policy problems. Arctic, 61(4), 347-360.

Clarke, L.J., S.A. Robinson, Q. Hua, D.J. Ayre, and D. Fink, 2012: Radiocarbon bombspike reveals biological effects of Antarctic climate change. Global ChangeBiology, 18(1), 301-310.

Page 33: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1599

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

Cochran, P., O.H. Huntington, C. Pungowiyi, S. Tom, F.S. Chapin III, H.P. Huntington,N.G. Maynard, and S.F. Trainor, 2013: Indigenous frameworks for observing andresponding to climate change in Alaska. Climatic Change, 12(3 SI), 557-567.

Comeau, S., R. Jeffree, J. Teyssié, and J.-P. Gattuso, 2010: Response of the Arcticpteropod Limacina helicina to projected future environmental conditions. PLoSONE, 5(6), e11362, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0011362.

Comeau, S., J.-P. Gattuso, A.M. Nisumaa, and J. Orr, 2012: Impact of aragonitesaturation state changes on migratory pteropods. Proceedings of the RoyalSociety B, 279(1729), 732-738.

Constable, A.J., 2011: Lessons from CCAMLR on the implementation of the ecosystemapproach to managing fisheries. Fish and Fisheries, 12(2), 138-151.

Convey, P., 2006: Book review: Roberto Bargagli, Ecological Studies 175: AntarcticEcosystems – Environmental Contamination, Climate Change and HumanImpact. Journal of Paleolimnology, 36(2), 223-224.

Convey, P., 2010: Terrestrial biodiversity in Antarctica – recent advances and futurechallenges. Polar Science, 4(2), 135-147.

Convey, P., 2011: Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity in a changing world. Polar Biology,34(11), 1629-1641.

Convey, P. and M. Lebouvier, 2009: Environmental change and human impacts onterrestrial ecosystems of the sub-Antarctic islands between their discovery andthe mid-twentieth century. Papers and Proceedings of the Royal Society ofTasmania, 143(1), 33-44.

Convey, P. and M.I. Stevens, 2007: Antarctic biodiversity. Science, 317(5846), 1877-1878.

Convey, P., R. Bindschadler, G. Di Prisco, E. Fahrbach, J. Gutt, D.A. Hodgson, P.A.Mayewski, C.P. Summerhayes, J. Turner, and the ACCE Consortium, 2009:Review: Antarctic climate change and the environment. Antarctic Science,21(6), 541-563.

Convey, P., R. Key, M. Belchier, and C. Waller, 2011: Recent range expansions in non-native predatory beetles on sub-Antarctic South Georgia. Polar Biology, 34(4),597-602.

Cook, A.J., S. Poncet, A.P.R. Cooper, D.J. Herbert, and D. Christie, 2010: Glacier retreaton South Georgia and implications for the spread of rats. Antarctic Science,22(3), 255-263.

Cooper, L.W., C.J. Ashjian, S.L. Smith, L.A. Codispoti, J.M. Grebmeier, R.G. Campbell,and E.B. Sherr, 2006: Rapid seasonal sea-ice retreat in the Arctic could beaffecting Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) recruitment. AquaticMammals, 32(1), 98-102.

Corbett, J.J., D.A. Lack, J.J. Winebrake, S. Harder, J.A. Silberman, and M. Gold, 2010:Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios. AtmosphericChemistry and Physics Discussions, 10(4), 10271-10311.

Costa, D.P., L. Huckstadt, D. Crocker, B. McDonald, M. Goebel, and M. Fedak, 2010:Approaches to studying climate change and its role on the habitat selection ofAntarctic pinnipeds. Integrative and Comparative Biology, 50(6), 1018-1030.

Cowan, D.A., S.L. Chown, P. Convey, M. Tuffin, K. Hughes, S. Pointing, and W.F. Vincent,2011: Non-indigenous microorganisms in the Antarctic: assessing the risks.Trends in Microbiology, 19(11), 540-548.

Coyle, K.J. and L. Van Susteren, 2012: The Psychological Effects of Global Warmingon the United States: Its Stresses, Traumas, and Societal Costs. National WildlifeFederation (NWF), Merrifield, VA, USA, 41 pp.

Coyle, K.O., L.B. Eisner, F.J. Mueter, A.I. Pinchuk, M.A. Janout, K.D. Cieciel, E.V. Farley,and A.G. Andrews, 2011: Climate change in the southeastern Bering Sea: impactson pollock stocks and implications for the oscillating control hypothesis.Fisheries Oceanography, 20(2), 139-156.

Crate, S.A. and M. Nuttall (eds.), 2009: Anthropology and Climate Change: FromEncounters to Actions. Left Coast Press, Walnut Creek, CA, USA, 407 pp.

Crate, S.A., B.C. Forbes, L. King, and J. Kruse, 2010: Contact with nature. In: ArcticSocial Indicators: A Follow-Up to the Arctic Human Development Report [Larsen,J.N., P. Schweitzer, and G. Fondahl (eds.)]. TemaNord 2010:519, Nordic Councilof Ministers, Copenhagen, Denmark, pp. 109-128.

Croxall, J.P., S.H.M. Butchart, B. Lascelles, A.J. Stattersfield, B. Sullivan, A. Symes, andP. Taylor, 2012: Seabird conservation status, threats and priority actions: a globalassessment. Bird Conservation International, 22(1), 1-34.

Cruikshank, J., 2001: Glaciers and climate change: perspectives from oral tradition.Arctic, 54(4), 377-393.

Cubillos, J.C., S.W. Wright, G. Nash, M.F. de Salas, B. Griffiths, B. Tilbrook, A. Poisson,and G.M. Hallegraeff, 2007: Calcification morphotypes of the coccolithophoridEmiliania huxleyi in the Southern Ocean: changes in 2001 to 2006 comparedto historical data. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 348, 47-54.

Cullen-Unsworth, L.C., R. Hill, J.R.A. Butler, and M. Wallace, 2011: A research processfor integrating indigenous and scientific knowledge in cultural landscapes:principles and determinants of success in the Wet Tropics World Heritage Area,Australia. The Geographical Journal, 178(4), 351-365.

Curtis, T., S. Kvernmo, and P. Bjerregaard, 2005: Changing living conditions, life styleand health. International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 64(5), 442-450.

Dalpadado, P., R.B. Ingvaldsen, L.C. Stige, B. Bogstad, T. Knutsen, G. Ottersen, and B.Ellertsen, 2012: Climate effects on Barents Sea ecosystem dynamics. InternationalCouncil for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Journal of Marine Science, 69(7),1303-1316.

Danby, R.K. and D.S. Hik, 2007: Variability, contingency and rapid change in recentsubarctic alpine tree line dynamics. Journal of Ecology, 95(2), 352-363.

Danby, R.K., S. Koh, D.S. Hik, and L.W. Price, 2011: Four decades of plant communitychange in the alpine tundra of southwest Yukon, Canada. AMBIO: A Journal ofthe Human Environment, 40(6), 660-671.

Daniëls, F.J.A. and J.G. De Molenaar, 2011: Flora and vegetation of Tasiilaq, formerlyAngmagssalik, Southeast Greenland: a comparison of data between around1900 and 2007. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 40(6), 650-659.

Dankers, R. and H. Middelkoop, 2008: River discharge and freshwater runoff to theBarents Sea under present and future climate conditions. Climatic Change,87(1-2), 131-153.

Dannevig, H., T. Rauken, and G. Hovelsrud, 2012: Implementing adaptation to climatechange at the local level. Local Environment: The International Journal of Justiceand Sustainability, 17(6-7), 597-611.

Darnis, G., D. Robert, C. Pomerleau, H. Link, P. Archambault, R.J. Nelson, M. Geoffroy,J. Tremblay, C. Lovejoy, S.H. Ferguson, B.P.V. Hunt, and L. Fortier, 2012: Currentstate and trends in Canadian Arctic marine ecosystems: II. Heterotrophic foodweb, pelagic-benthic coupling, and biodiversity. Climatic Change, 115(1), 179-205.

Dawson, J., E.J. Stewart, H. Lemelin, and D. Scott, 2010: The carbon cost of polar bearviewing tourism in Churchill, Canada. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 18(3),319-336.

de Neergaard, E., P. Stougaard, K. Høegh, and L. Munk, 2009: Climatic changes andagriculture in Greenland: plant diseases in potatoes and grass fields. IOPConference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 6(37), 372013, doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/37/372013.

Degteva, A. and C. Nellemann, 2013: Nenets migration in the landscape: impacts ofindustrial development in Yamal Peninsula, Russia. Pastoralism: Research, Policyand Practice, 3, 15, doi:10.1186/2041-7136-3-15.

Derksen, C., S.L. Smith, M. Sharp, L. Brown, S. Howell, L. Copland, D.R. Mueller, Y. Gauthier,C.G. Fletcher, A. Tivy, M. Bernier, J. Bourgeois, R. Brown, C.R. Burn, C. Duguay,P. Kushner, A. Langlois, A.G. Lewkowicz, A. Royer, and A. Walker, 2012: Variabilityand change in the Canadian cryosphere. Climatic Change, 115(1), 59-88.

Derocher, A.E., N.J. Lunn, and I. Stirling, 2004: Polar bears in a warming climate.Integrative and Comparative Biology, 44(2), 163-176.

Derocher, A.E., M. Andersen, Ø. Wiig, J. Aars, E. Hansen, and M. Biuw, 2011: Sea iceand polar bear den ecology at Hopen Island, Svalbard. Marine Ecology ProgressSeries, 441, 273-279.

Derome, J. and N. Lukina, 2011: Interaction between environmental pollution andland-cover/land-use change in Arctic areas. In: Eurasian Arctic Land Cover andLand Use in a Changing Climate [Gutman, G. and A. Reissell (eds.)]. Springer,Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 269-290

Déry, S.J. and E.F. Wood, 2005: Decreasing river discharge in northern Canada.Geophysical Research Letters, 32(10), L10401, doi:10.1029/2005GL022845.

Dibike, Y., T. Prowse, T. Saloranta, and R. Ahmed, 2011: Response of Northern Hemispherelake-ice cover and lake-water thermal structure patterns to a changing climate.Hydrological Processes, 25(19), 2942-2953.

Dinniman, M.S., J.M. Klinck, and E.E. Hofmann, 2012: Sensitivity of circumpolar deepwater transport and ice shelf basal melt along the West Antarctic Peninsula tochanges in the winds. Journal of Climate, 25(14), 4799-4816.

Donaldson, S.G., J. Van Oostdam, C. Tikhonov, M. Feeley, B. Armstrong, P. Ayotte, O.Boucher, W. Bowers, L. Chan, F. Dallaire, R. Dallaire, E. Dewailly, J. Edwards, G.M.Egeland, J. Fontaine, C. Furgal, T. Leech, E. Loring, G. Muckle, T. Nancarrow, D. Pereg,P. Plusguellec, M. Potyrala, O. Receveur, and R.G. Shearer, 2010: Environmentalcontaminants and human health in the Canadian Arctic. Science of the TotalEnvironment, 408(22), 5165-5234.

Donelson, J.M., P.L. Munday, M.I. Mccormick, and G.E. Nilsson, 2011: Acclimationto predicted ocean warming through developmental plasticity in a tropical reeffish. Global Change Biology, 17(4), 1712-1719.

Page 34: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1600

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Drinkwater, K.F., 2011: The influence of climate variability and change on theecosystems of the Barents Sea and adjacent waters: review and synthesis ofrecent studies from the NESSAS project. Progress in Oceanography, 90, 47-61.

Drinkwater, K.F., G. Beaugrand, M. Kaeriyama, S. Kim, G. Ottersen, R.I. Perry, H.-O.Pörtner, J.J. Polovina, and A. Takasuka, 2010: On the processes linking climateto ecosystem changes. Journal of Marine Systems, 79(3-4), 374-388.

Duc, N., P. Crill, and D. Bastviken, 2010: Implications of temperature and sedimentcharacteristics on methane formation and oxidation in lake sediments.Biogeochemistry, 100(1), 185-196.

Ducklow, H., A. Clarke, R. Dickhut, S.C. Doney, H. Geisz, K. Huang, D.G. Martinson,M.P. Meredith, H.V. Moeller, M. Montes-Hugo, O. Schofield, S.E. Stammerjohn,D. Steinberg, and W. Fraser, 2012: The marine system of the western AntarcticPeninsula. In: Antarctic Ecosystems: An Extreme Evironment in a ChangingWorld [Rogers, A.D., N.M. Johnston, E.J. Murphy, and A. Clarke (eds.)]. JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd., Chichester, UK, pp. 121-159.

Duhaime, G., A. Lemelin, V. Didyk, O. Goldsmith, G. Winther, A. Caron, N. Bernard,and A. Godmaire, 2004: Economic systems. In: The Arctic Human DevelopmentReport [Einarsson, N., J.N. Larsen, A. Nilsson, and O.R. Young (eds.)]. StefanssonArctic Institute, Akureyri, Iceland, pp. 69-84.

Dumas, J.A., G.M. Flato, and R.D. Brown, 2006: Future projections of landfast icethickness and duration in the Canadian Arctic. Journal of Climate, 19(20),5175-5189.

Durner, G.M., D.C. Douglas, R.M. Nielson, S.C. Amstrup, T.L. McDonald, I. Stirling, M.Mauritzen, E.W. Born, Ø. Wiig, E. DeWeaver, M.C. Serreze, S.E. Belikov, M.M.Holland, J. Maslanik, J. Aars, D.A. Bailey, and A.E. Derocher, 2009: Predicting21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models.Ecological Monographs, 79(1), 25-58.

Durner, G., J. Whiteman, H. Harlow, S. Amstrup, E. Regehr, and M. Ben-David, 2011:Consequences of long-distance swimming and travel over deep-water pack icefor a female polar bear during a year of extreme sea ice retreat. Polar Biology,34(7), 975-984.

Dyck, M.G. and E. Kebreab, 2009: Estimating the energetic contribution of polar bear(Ursus Maritimus) summer diets to the total energy budget. Journal ofMammalogy, 90(3), 585-593.

Dyck, M. and S. Romberg, 2007: Observations of a wild polar bear (Ursus maritimus)successfully fishing Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) and Fourhorn sculpin(Myoxocephalus quadricornis). Polar Biology, 30(12), 1625-1628.

Dyck, M.G., W. Soon, R.K. Baydack, D.R. Legates, S. Baliunas, T.F. Ball, and L.O.Hancock, 2007: Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: arewarming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor?Ecological Complexity, 4(3), 73-84.

Dyck, M.G., W. Soon, R.K. Baydack, D.R. Legates, S. Baliunas, T.F. Ball, and L.O.Hancock, 2008: Reply to response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears andclimate change in western Hudson Bay by Stirling et al. (2008). EcologicalComplexity, 5(4), 289-302.

Eicken, H., A.L. Lovecraft, and M.L. Druckenmiller, 2009: Sea-ice system services: aframework to help identify and meet information needs relevant for observingnetworks. Arctic, 62(2), 119-136.

Eira, I.M.G., C. Jaedicke, O.H. Magga, N.G. Maynard, D. Vikhamar-Schuler, and S.D.Mathiesen, 2012: Traditional Sámi snow terminology and physical snowclassification – two ways of knowing. Cold Regions Science and Technology,85, 117-130.

Ellingsen, I.H., P. Dalpadado, D. Slagstad, and H. Loeng, 2008: Impact of climaticchange on the biological production in the Barents Sea. Climatic Change,87(1-2), 155-175.

Elmendorf, S.C., G.H.R. Henry, R.D. Hollister, R.G. Björk, A.D. Bjorkman, T.V. Callaghan,L.S. Collier, E.J. Cooper, J.H.C. Cornelissen, T.A. Day, A.M. Fosaa, W.A. Gould, J.Grétarsdóttir, J. Harte, L. Hermanutz, D.S. Hik, A. Hofgaard, F. Jarrad, I.S.Jónsdóttir, F. Keuper, K. Klanderud, J.A. Klein, S. Koh, G. Kudo, S.I. Lang, V.Loewen, J.L. May, J. Mercado, A. Michelsen, U. Molau, I.H. Myers-Smith, S.F.Oberbauer, S. Pieper, E. Post, C. Rixen, C.H. Robinson, N.M. Schmidt, G.R. Shaver,A. Stenström, A. Tolvanen, Ø. Totland, T. Troxler, C.-H. Wahren, P.J. Webber, J.M.Welker, and P.A. Wookey, 2012a: Global assessment of experimental climatewarming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time. EcologyLetters, 15(2), 164-175.

Elmendorf, S.C., G.H.R. Henry, R.D. Hollister, R.G. Björk, N. Boulanger-Lapointe, E.J.Cooper, J.H.C. Cornelissen, T.A. Day, E. Dorrepaal, T.G. Elumeeva, M. Gill, W.A.Gould, J. Harte, D.S. Hik, A. Hofgaard, D.R. Johnson, J.F. Johnstone, I.S. Jónsdóttir,J.C. Jorgenson, K. Klanderud, J.A. Klein, S. Koh, G. Kudo, M. Lara, E. Lévesque,

B. Magnússon, J.L. May, J.A. Mercado-Díaz, A. Michelsen, U. Molau, I.H. Myers-Smith, S.F. Oberbauer, V.G. Onipchenko, C. Rixen, N.M. Schmidt, G.R. Shaver,M.J. Spasojevic, Þ.E. Þórhallsdóttir, A. Tolvanen, T. Troxler, C.E. Tweedie, S.Villareal, C.-H. Wahren, X. Walker, P.J. Webber, J.M. Welker, and S. Wipf, 2012b:Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summerwarming. Nature Climate Change, 2, 453-457.

Emmerton, C.A., L.F.W. Lesack, and W.F. Vincent, 2008: Mackenzie River nutrientdelivery to the Arctic Ocean and effects of the Mackenzie Delta during openwater conditions. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22(1), GB1024, doi:10.1029/2006GB002856.

Epstein, H.E., M.K. Raynolds, D.A. Walker, U.S. Bhatt, C.J. Tucker, and J.E. Pinzon, 2012:Dynamics of aboveground phytomass of the circumpolar Arctic tundra during thepast three decades. Environmental Research Letters, 7(1), 015506, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015506.

Epstein, P.R. and D. Ferber, 2011: Changing Planet, Changing Health: How the ClimateCrisis Threatens Our Health and What We Can Do about It. University ofCalifornia Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles, CA, USA, 368 pp.

Eskeland, G.S. and L.S. Flottorp, 2006: Climate change in the Arctic: a discussion ofthe impact on economic activity. In: The Economy of the North [Glomsrød, S.and I. Aslaksen (eds.)]. Statistics Norway, Oslo, Norway, pp. 81-94.

Fabry, V.J., J.B. McClintock, J.T. Mathis, and J.M. Grebmeier, 2009: Ocean acidificationat high latitudes: the bellwether. Oceanography, 22(4), 160-171.

Falk-Petersen, S., P. Mayzaud, G. Kattner, and J. R. Sargent. 2009: Lipids and lifestrategy of Arctic Calanus. Marine Biology Research, 5(1 SI), 18-39.

Favero-Longo, S.E., N. Cannone, M.R. Worland, P. Convey, R. Piervittori, and M.Guglielmin, 2011: Changes in lichen diversity and community structure withfur seal population increase on Signy Island, South Orkney Islands. AntarcticScience, 23(1), 65-77.

Fechhelm, R.G., B. Streever, and B.J. Gallaway, 2007: The arctic cisco (Coreogonusautumnalis) subsistence and commercial fisheries, Colville River, Alaska: aconceptual model. Arctic, 60(4), 421-429.

Ferguson, S.H., I. Stirling, and P. McLoughlin, 2005: Climate change and ringed seal(Phoca hispida) recruitment in western Hudson Bay. Marine Mammal Science,21(1), 121-135.

Ferguson, S.H., M. Kingsley, and J. Higdon, 2012: Killer whale (Orcinus orca)predation in a multi-prey system. Population Ecology, 54(1), 31-41.

Fischbach, A.S., S.C. Amstrup, and D.C. Douglas, 2007: Landward and eastward shiftof Alaskan polar bear denning associated with recent sea ice changes. PolarBiology, 30(11), 1395-1405.

Flanagan, K.M., E. McCauley, and F. Wrona, 2006: Freshwater food webs controlcarbon dioxide saturation through sedimentation. Global Change Biology,12(4), 644-651.

Flores, H., A. Atkinson, S. Kawaguchi, B.A. Krafft, G. Milinevsky, S. Nicol, C. Reiss, G.A.Tarling, R. Werner, E.B. Rebolledo, V. Cirelli, J. Cuzin-Roudy, S. Fielding, J.J.Groeneveld, M. Haraldsson, A. Lombana, E. Marschoff, B. Meyer, E.A. Pakhomov,E. Rombolá, K. Schmidt, V. Siegel, M. Teschke, H. Tonkes, J.Y. Toullec, P.N. Trathan,N. Tremblay, A.P. Van de Putte, J.A. van Franeker, and T. Werner, 2012: Impact ofclimate change on Antarctic krill. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 458, 1-19.

Forbes, B.C., 2006: The challenges of modernity for reindeer management innorthernmost Europe. In: Reindeer Management in Northernmost Europe: LinkingPractical and Scientific Knowledge in Social-Ecological Systems [Forbes, B.C.,M. Bölter, L. Müller-Wille, J. Hukkinen, F. Müller, N. Gunslay, and Y. Konstantinov(eds.)]. Ecological Studies, Vol. 184, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany, pp. 11-25.

Forbes, B.C., 2008: Equity, vulnerability and resilience in social-ecological systems:a contemporary example from the Russian Arctic. Research in Social Problemsand Public Policy, 15, 203-236.

Forbes, B.C. and T. Kumpula, 2009: The ecological role and geography of reindeer(Rangifer tarandus) in northern Eurasia. Geography Compass, 3(4), 1356-1380.

Forbes, B.C. and F. Stammler, 2009: Arctic climate change discourse: the contrastingpolitics of research agendas in the West and Russia. Polar Research, 28(1), 28-42.

Forbes, B.C., M. Bölter, L. Müller-Wille, J. Hukkinen, F. Müller, N. Gunslay, and Y.Konstantinov (eds.), 2006: Reindeer Management in Northernmost Europe:Linking Practical and Scientific Knowledge in Social-Ecological Systems.Ecological Studies, Vol. 184, Springer, Berlin, Germany, 397 pp.

Forbes, B.C., F. Stammler, T. Kumpula, N. Meschtyb, A. Pajunen, and E. Kaarlejärvi,2009: High resilience in the Yamal-Nenets social-ecological system, WestSiberian Arctic, Russia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of theUnited States of America, 106(52), 22041-22048.

Page 35: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1601

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

Forbes, B.C., M.M. Fauria, and P. Zetterberg, 2010: Russian Arctic warming and‘greening’ are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows. Global Change Biology,16(5), 1542-1554.

Forbes, D.L. (ed.), 2011: State of the Arctic Coast 2010: Scientific Review and Outlook.International Arctic Science Committee, Land-Ocean Interactions in the CoastalZone, Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, International PermafrostAssociation, Helmholtz-Zentrum, Geesthacht, Germany,178 pp.

Forcada, J., P.N. Trathan, P.L. Boveng, I.L. Boyd, J.M. Burns, D.P. Costa, M. Fedak, T.L.Rogers, and C.J. Southwell, 2012: Responses of Antarctic pack-ice seals toenvironmental change and increasing krill fishing. Biological Conservation,149(1), 40-50.

Forchhammer, M.C., N.M. Schmidt, T.T. Høye, T.B. Berg, D.K. Hendrichsen, and E. Post,2008: Population dynamical responses to climate change. In: High-ArcticEcosystem Dynamics in a Changing Climate [Meltofte, H., T.R. Christensen, B.Elberling, M.C. Forchhammer, and M. Rasch (eds.)]. Advances in EcologicalResearch Series, Vol. 40, Elsevier Science and Technology/Academic Press,Waltham, MA, USA, pp. 391-419.

Ford, J.D., 2009: Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation forthe Arctic’s Inuit population. Environmental Research Letters, 4(2), 024006,doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024006.

Ford, J.D. and L. Berrang-Ford, 2009: Food security in Igloolik, Nunavut: an exploratorystudy. Polar Record, 45(3), 225-236.

Ford, J.D. and C. Furgal, 2009: Foreword to the special issue: climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic. Polar Research, 28(1 SI), 1-9.

Ford, J.D. and C. Goldhar, 2012: Climate change vulnerability and adaptation inresource dependent communities: a case study from West Greenland. ClimateResearch, 54, 181-196.

Ford, J.D. and T. Pearce, 2010: What we know, do not know, and need to know aboutclimate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematicliterature review. Environmental Research Letters, 5(1), 014008, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014008.

Ford, J.D., B. Smit, and J. Wandel, 2006: Vulnerability to climate change in the Arctic:case study from Arctic Bay, Nunavut. Global Environmental Change, 16(2), 145-160.

Ford, J., B. Pearce, B. Smit, J. Wandel, M. Allurut, K. Shappa, H. Ittusujurat, and K.Qrunnut, 2007: Reducing vulnerability to climate change in the Arctic: the caseof Nunavut, Canada. Arctic, 60(2), 150-166.

Ford, J., T. Pearce, J. Prno, F. Duerden, L. Berrang Ford, M. Beaumier, and T. Smith, 2010:Perceptions of climate change risks in primary resource use industries: surveyof the Canadian mining sector. Regional Environmental Change, 10(1), 65-81.

Frederiksen, M., T. Anker-Nilssen, G. Beaugrand, and S. Wanless, 2013: Climate,copepods and seabirds in the boreal Northeast Atlantic – current state andfuture outlook. Global Change Biology, 19(2), 364-372.

Freitas, C., K.M. Kovacs, R.A. Ims, and C. Lydersen, 2008: Predicting habitat useby ringed seals (Phoca hispida) in a warming Arctic. Ecological Modelling,217(1-2), 19-32.

Frenot, Y., S.L. Chown, J. Whinam, P.M. Selkirk, P. Convey, M. Skotnicki, and D.M.Bergstrom, 2005: Biological invasions in the Antarctic: extent, impacts andimplications. Biological Reviews, 80(1), 45-72.

Frey, K.E. and J.W. McClelland, 2009: Impacts of permafrost degradation on arcticriver biogeochemistry. Hydrological Processes, 23(1), 169-182.

Froese, R. and A. Proelß, 2010: Rebuilding fish stocks no later than 2015: will Europemeet the deadline? Fish and Fisheries, 11(2), 194-202.

Fuglei, E. and R.A. Ims, 2008: Global warming and effects on the arctic fox. ScienceProgress, 91(2), 175-191.

Furgal, C., 2008: Climate change health vulnerabilities in the North. In: Human Healthin a Changing Climate: a Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and AdaptiveCapacity [Seguin, J. (ed.)]. Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada, pp. 303-366.

Furgal, C. and T.D. Prowse, 2008: Northern Canada. In: From Impacts to Adaptation:Canada in a Changing Climate [Lemmen, D.S., F.J. Warren, and J. Lacroix (ed.)].Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Natural Resources Canada,Ottawa, ON, Canada, pp. 57-118

Furgal, C. and J. Seguin, 2006: Climate change, health, and vulnerability in Canadiannorthern aboriginal communities. Environmental Health Perspectives, 114(12),1964-1970.

Galand, P.E., C. Lovejoy, J. Pouliot, M.E. Garneau, and W.F. Vincent, 2008: Microbialcommunity diversity and heterotrophic production in a coastal Arctic ecosystem:a stamukhi lake and its source waters. Limnology and Oceanography, 53(2),813-823.

Galloway-McLean, K., 2010: Advance Guard: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation,Mitigation and Indigenous Peoples – A Compendium of Case Studies. UnitedNations University, Institute for Advanced Studies (UNU-IAS), TraditionalKnowledge Initiative, Darwin, NT, Australia, 124 pp.

Gamon, J.A., K.F. Heummrich, R.S. Stone, and C.E. Tweedie, 2013: Spatial andtemporal variation in primary productivity (NDVI) of coastal Alaskan tundra:decreased vegetation growth following earlier snowmelt. Remote Sensing ofEnvironment, 129, 144-153.

GAO, 2009: Alaska Native Villages: Limited Progress Has Been Made on RelocatingVillages Threatened by Flooding and Erosion. Report to CongressionalRequesters, GAO-09-551, United States Government Accountability Department(GAO), Washington, DC, USA, 49 pp.

Gaston, A.J., 2011: Arctic seabirds: diversity, populations, trends, and causes. In:Gyrfalcons and Ptarmigan in a Changing World, Vol. I [Watson, R.T., T. J. Cade,M. Fuller, G. Hunt, and E. Potapov (eds.)]. The Peregrine Fund, Boise, ID, USA,pp. 147-160.

Gaston, A.J. and K. Woo, 2008: Razorbills (Alca torda) follow subarctic prey into theCanadian Arctic: colonization results from climate change? The Auk, 125(4),939-942.

Gaston, A.J., H.G. Gilchrist, and J.M. Hipfner, 2005: Climate change, ice conditionsand reproduction in an Arctic nesting marine bird: Brunnich’s guillemot (Urialomvia L.). Journal of Animal Ecology, 74(5), 832-841.

Gaston, A.J., H.G. Gilchrist, M.L. Mallory, and P.A. Smith, 2009: Changes in seasonalevents, peak food availability, and consequent breeding adjustment in a marinebird: a case of progressive mismatching. Condor, 111(1), 111-119.

Gautier, D.L., K.J. Bird, R.R. Charpentier, A. Grantz, D.W. Houseknecht, T.R. Klett, T.E.Moore, J.K. Pitman, C.J. Schenk, J.H. Schuenemeyer, K. Sørensen, M.E. Tennyson,Z.C. Valin, and C.J. Wandrey, 2009: Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas inthe Arctic. Science, 324(5931), 1175-1179.

Gearheard, S., W. Matumeak, I. Angutikjuaq, J. Maslanik, H.P. Huntington, J. Leavitt,D.M. Kagak, G. Tigullaraq, and R.G. Barry, 2006: “It’s not that simple”: acollaborative comparison of sea ice environments, their uses, observed changes,and adaptations in Barrow, Alaska, USA, and Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada.AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 35(4), 203-211.

Gearheard, S., G. Aipellee, and K. O’Keefe, 2010: The Igliniit project: combining Inuitknowledge and geomatics engineering to develop a new observation tool forhunters. In: SIKU: Knowing Our Ice, Documenting Inuit Sea-Ice Knowledge andUse [Krupnik, I., C. Aporta, S. Gearheard, G.J. Laidler, and L. Kielsen-Holm (eds.)].Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 181-202.

Gearheard, S., C. Aporta, G. Aipellee, and K. O’Keefe, 2011: The Igliniit project: Inuithunters document life on the trail to map and monitor arctic change. CanadianGeographer / Le Géographe Canadien, 55(1), 42-55.

Geffen, A.J., H. Høie, A. Folkvord, A.K. Hufthammer, C. Andersson, U. Ninnemann, R.B.Pedersen, and K. Nedreaas, 2011: High-latitude climate variability and its effecton fisheries resources as revealed by fossil cod otoliths. International Councilfor the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Journal of Marine Science, 68(6), 1081-1089.

Gilg, O., B. Sittler, and I. Hanski, 2009: Climate change and cyclic predator-prey populationdynamics in the High Arctic. Global Change Biology, 15(11), 2634-2652.

Gilg, O., K.M. Kovacs, J. Aars, J. Fort, G. Gauthier, D. Grémillet, R.A. Ims, H. Meltofte,J. Moreau, E. Post, N.M. Schmidt, G. Yannic, and L. Bollache, 2012: Climatechange and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates. Annals of the NewYork Academy of Sciences, 1249, 166-190.

Gjosaeter, H., B. Bogstad, and S. Tjelmeland, 2009: Ecosystem effects of the threecapelin stock collapses in the Barent Sea. Marine Biology Research, 5(1 SI),40-53.

Gleason, J.S. and K.D. Rode, 2009: Polar bear distribution and habitat associationreflect long-term changes in fall sea ice conditions in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea.Arctic, 62(4), 405-417.

Glomsrød, S. and I. Aslaksen, 2009: The Economy of the North 2008. StatisticsNorway, Oslo, Norway, 102 pp.

Goetz, S.J., A.G. Bunn, G.J. Fiske, and R.A. Houghton, 2005: Satellite-observedphotosynthetic trends across boreal North America associated with climate andfire disturbance. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the UnitedStates of America, 102(38), 13521-13525.

Grant, S., A. Constable, B. Raymond, and S. Doust, 2006: Bioregionalisation of theSouthern Ocean: Report of Experts Workshop, Hobart, September 2006. WorldWide Fund for Nature – Australia (WWF-Australia) and the Antarctic Climate andEcosystems Cooperative Research Center (ACE CRC), Sydney, Australia, 45 pp.

Page 36: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1602

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Grebmeier, J.M., 2012: Shifting patterns of life in the Pacific Arctic and sub-Arcticseas. Annual Review of Marine Science, 4(1), 63-78.

Grebmeier, J.M., J.E. Overland, S.E. Moore, E.V. Farley, E.C. Carmack, L.W. Cooper,K.E. Frey, J.H. Helle, F.A. McLaughlin, and S.L. McNutt, 2006: A major ecosystemshift in the northern Bering Sea. Science, 311(5766), 1461-1464.

Green, D. and G. Raygorodetsky, 2010: Indigenous knowledge of a changing climate.Climatic Change, 100(2), 239-242.

Greenwald, M.J., W.B. Bowden, M.N. Gooseff, J.P. Zarnetske, J.P. McNamara, J.H.Bradford, and T.R. Brosten, 2008: Hyporheic exchange and water chemistry oftwo arctic tundra streams of contrasting geomorphology. Journal of GeophysicalResearch, 113, G02029, doi:10.1029/2007JG000549.

Grémillet, D. and T. Boulinier, 2009: Spatial ecology and conservation of seabirds facingglobal climate change: a review. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 391, 121-137.

Grémillet, D., J. Welcker, N.J. Karnovsky, W. Walkusz, M.E. Hall, J. Fort, Z.W. Brown,J.R. Speakman, and A.M.A. Harding, 2012: Little auks buffer impacts of currentArctic climate change. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 45, 197-206.

Grenfell, T.C. and J. Putkonen, 2008: A method for the detection of the severerain-on-snow event on Banks Island, October 2003, using passive microwaveremote sensing. Water Resources Research, 44(3), W03425, doi:10.1029/2007WR005929.

Griffith, B., L.G. Adams, D.C. Douglas, C. Cuyler, R.G. White, A. Gunn, D.E. Russell, andR.D. Cameron, 2010: No evidence of trophic mismatch for caribou in Greenland.Science, E-Letter published online 13 January 2010, www.sciencemag.org/content/325/5946/1355/reply#sci_el_12934.

Grønlund, A., 2009: Virkning av Klimaendring på Arealbruk i Norsk Arktis. BioforskRapport,Vol. 4, No.109, Bioforsk, Norwegian Institute for Agricultural andEnvironmental Research, Ås, Norway, 15 pp. (in Norwegian).

Gudasz, C., D. Bastviken, K. Steger, K. Premke, S. Sobek, and L.J. Tranvik, 2010:Temperature-controlled organic carbon mineralization in lake sediments.Nature, 466(7305), 478-481.

Gunn, A., F.L. Miller, S.J. Barry, and A. Buchan, 2009: A near-total decline in caribouon Prince of Wales, Somerset, and Russell Islands, Canadian Arctic. Arctic, 59(1),1-13.

Gutt, J., I. Barratt, E. Domack, C.D. d’Acoz, W. Dimmler, A. Grémare, O. Heilmayer, E.Isla, D. Janussen, E. Jorgensen, K.H. Kock, L.S. Lehnert, P. López-Gonzáles, S.Langner, K. Linse, M.E. Manjón-Cabeza, M. Meißner, A. Montiel, M. Raes, H.Robert, A. Rose, E.S. Schepisi, T. Saucède, M. Scheidat, H.-W. Schenke, J. Seiler,and C. Smith, 2011: Biodiversity change after climate-induced ice-shelf collapsein the Antarctic. Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography,58(1-2), 74-83.

Halldórsson, G., B.D. Sigurdsson, O.E.S. Hrafnkelsdóttir, Ó. Eggertsson, and E. Ólafsson,2013: New anthropod herbivores on trees and shrubs in Iceland and changesin pest dynamics: a review. Icelandic Agricultural Sciences, 26, 69-84.

Hallinger, M., M. Manthey, and M. Wilmking, 2010: Establishing a missing link: warmsummers and winter snow cover promote shrub expansion into alpine tundrain Scandinavia. New Phytologist, 186(4), 890-899.

Hansen, B.B., R. Aanes, I. Herfindal, J. Kohler, B.-E. Sæther, and M.K. Oli, 2011: Climate,icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects. Ecology,92(10), 1917-1923.

Hansen, B.B., V. Grøtan, R. Aanes, B.-E. Sæther, A. Stien, E. Fuglei, R.A. Ims, N.G. Yoccoz,and A.Ø. Pedersen, 2013: Climate events synchronize the dynamics of a residentvertebrate community in the High Arctic. Science, 339(6117), 313-315.

Harsch, M.A., P.E. Hulme, M.S. McGlone, and R.P. Duncan, 2009: Are treelinesadvancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming.Ecology Letters, 12(10), 1040-1049.

Harsem, Ø., A. Eide, and K. Heen, 2011: Factors influencing future oil and gasprospects in the Arctic. Energy Policy, 39(12), 8037-8045.

Hátún, H., M.R. Payne, and J.A. Jacobsen, 2009: The North Atlantic subpolar gyreregulates the spawning distribution of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou).Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 66(5), 759-770.

Hay, L. and G. McCabe, 2010: Hydrologic effects of climate change in the Yukon RiverBasin. Climatic Change, 100(3-4), 509-523.

Haynie, A.C. and L. Pfeiffer, 2012: Why economics matters for understanding the effectsof climate change on fisheries. International Council for the Exploration of theSea (ICES) Journal of Marine Science, 69(7), 1160-1167.

Hedenås, H., H. Olsson, C. Jonasson, J. Bergstedt, U. Dahlberg, and T.V. Callaghan,2011: Changes in tree growth, biomass and vegetation over a 13-year periodin the Swedish sub-Arctic. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 40(6),672-682.

Hedensted, D.L., K. Sehested, T. Hellesen, and V. Nellemann, 2012: Climate changeadaptation in Denmark: enhancement through collaboration and meta-governance? Local Environment, 17(6-7 SI), 613-628.

Heggberget, T.M., E. Gaare, and J.P. Ball, 2010: Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) andclimate change: importance of winter forage. Rangifer, 22(1), 13-31.

Heino, J., R. Virkkala, and H. Toivonen, 2009: Climate change and freshwaterbiodiversity: detected patterns, future trends and adaptations in northernregions. Biological Reviews, 84(1), 39-54.

Heliasz, M., T. Johansson, A. Lindroth, M. Mölder, M. Mastepanov, T. Friborg, T.V.Callaghan, and T.R. Christensen, 2011: Quantification of C uptake in subarcticbirch forest after setback by an extreme insect outbreak. Geophysical ResearchLetters, 38(1), L01704, doi:10.1029/2010GL044733.

Helle, T.P. and L.M. Jaakkola, 2008: Transitions in management of semi-domesticatedreindeer in northern Finland. Annales Zoologici Fennici, 45(2), 81-101.

Henden, J.-A., R.A. Ims, N.G. Yoccoz, P. Hellström, and A. Angerbjörn, 2010: Strengthof asymmetric competition between predators in food webs ruled by fluctuatingprey: the case of foxes in tundra. Oikos, 119(1), 27-34.

Hezel, P.J., X. Zhang, C.M. Bitz, B.P. Kelly, and F. Massonnet, 2012: Projected declinein spring snow depth on Arctic sea ice caused by progressively later autumnopen ocean freeze-up this century. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(17),L17505, doi:10.1029/2012GL052794.

Higdon, J.W. and S.H. Ferguson, 2009: Loss of Arctic sea ice causing punctuatedchange in sightings of killer whales (Orcinus orca) over the past century.Ecological Applications, 19(5), 1365-1375.

Hill, G.B. and G.H.R. Henry, 2011: Responses of High Arctic wet sedge tundra toclimate warming since 1980. Global Change Biology, 17(1), 276-287.

Hill, S.L., T. Phillips, and A. Atkinson, 2013: Potential climate change effects on thehabitat of Antarctic krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean. PLoSONE, 8(8), e72246, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0072246.

Hinkel, K.M., B.M. Jones, W.R. Eisner, C.J. Cuomo, R.A. Beck, and R. Frohn, 2007:Methods to assess natural and anthropogenic thaw lake drainage on the westernArctic coastal plain of northern Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research: EarthSurface, 112(F2), F02S16, doi:10.1029/2006JF000584.

Hinz, D.J., A.J. Poulton, M.C. Nielsdóttir, S. Steigenberger, R.E. Korb, E.P. Achterberg,and T.S. Bibby, 2012: Comparative seasonal biogeography of mineralisingnannoplankton in the Scotia Sea: Emiliania huxleyi, Fragilariopsis spp. andTetraparma pelagica. Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography,59-60, 57-66.

Hinzman, L.D., N.D. Bettez, W.R. Bolton, F.S. Chapin III, M.B. Dyurgerov, C.L. Fastie, B.Griffith, R.D. Hollister, A. Hope, H.P. Huntington, A.M. Jensen, G.J. Jia, T. Jorgenson,D.L. Kane, D.R. Klein, G. Kofinas, A.H. Lynch, A.H. Lloyd, A.D. McGuire, F.E. Nelson,W.C.Oechel, T.E. Osterkamp, C.H. Racine, V.E. Romanovsky, R.S. Stone, D.A. Stow,M. Sturm, C.E. Tweedie, G.L. Vourlitis, M.D. Walker, D.A. Walker, P.J. Webber, J.M.Welker, K.S. Winker, and K. Yoshikawa, 2005: Evidence and implications of recentclimate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions. Climatic Change,72(3), 251-298.

Hodgson, D.A., 2011: First synchronous retreat of ice shelves marks a new phase ofpolar deglaciation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of theUnited States of America, 108(47), 18859-18860.

Hodgson, D.A. and J.P. Smol, 2008: High latitude paleolimnology. In: Polar Lakes andRivers – Limnology of Arctic and Antarctic Aquatic Ecosystems [Vincent, W.F.and J. Laybourn-Parry (eds.)]. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, pp. 43-64.

Hodgson, D.A., E. Verleyen, K. Sabbe, A.H. Squier, B.J. Keely, M.J. Leng, K.M. Saunders,and W. Vyverman, 2005: Late Quaternary climate-driven environmental changein the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica, multi-proxy evidence from a lake sedimentcore. Quaternary Research, 64(1), 83-99.

Hodgson, D.A., D. Roberts, A. McMinn, E. Verleyen, B. Terry, C. Corbett, and W. Vyverman,2006a: Recent rapid salinity rise in three East Antarctic lakes. Journal ofPaleolimnology, 36, 385-406.

Hodgson, D.A., E. Verleyen, A.H. Squier, K. Sabbe, B.J. Keely, K.M. Saunders, and W.Vyverman, 2006b: Interglacial environments of coastal east Antarctica:comparison of MIS 1 (Holocene) and MIS 5e (Last Interglacial) lake-sedimentrecords. Quaternary Science Reviews, 25, 179-197.

Hofgaard, A., J.O. Lokken, L. Dalen, and H. Hytteborn, 2010: Comparing warmingand grazing effects on birch growth in an alpine environment – a 10-yearexperiment. Plant Ecology and Diversity, 3(1), 19-27.

Hollowed, A.B., B. Planque, and H. Loeng, 2013: Potential movement of fish andshellfish stocks from the sub-Arctic to the Arctic Ocean. Fisheries Oceanography,22(5), 355-370.

Page 37: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1603

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

Hovelsrud, G.K. and B. Smit (eds.), 2010: Community Adaptation and Vulnerabilityin Arctic Regions. Springer, Dordrech, Netherlands, 353 pp.

Hovelsrud, G.K., B. Poppel, B.E.H. van Oort, and J.D. Reist, 2011: Arctic societies,cultures, and peoples. In: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA).Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway, pp. 445-483.

Høye, T.T., E. Post, H. Meltofte, N.M. Schmidt, and M.C. Forchhammer, 2007:Rapid advancement of spring in the High Arctic. Current Biology, 17(12), R449-R451.

Hudson, J.M. and G.H. Henry, 2009: Increased plant biomass in a High Arctic heathcommunity from 1981 to 2008. Ecology, 90(10), 2657-2663.

Hueffler, K., A.J. Parkinson, R. Gerlach, and J. Berner, 2013: Zoonotic infections inAlaska: disease prevalence, potential impact of climate change andrecommended actions for earlier disease detection, research, prevention andcontrol. International Journal of Circumpolar Health, 72, 19562, doi:10.3402/ijch.v72i0.19562.

Hughes, K.A. and P. Convey, 2010: The protection of Antarctic terrestrial ecosystemsfrom inter- and intra-continental transfer of non-indigenous species by humanactivities: a review of current systems and practices. Global EnvironmentalChange, 20(1), 96-112.

Hughes-Hanks, J.M., L.G. Rickard, C. Panuska, J.R. Saucier, T.M. O’Hara, L. Dehn, andR.M. Rolland, 2005: Prevalence of Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia spp. in fivemarine mammal species. The Journal of Parasitology, 91(5), 1225-1228.

Hung, H., R. Kallenborn., K. Breivik, Y. Su, E. Brorström-Lundén, K. Olafsdottir, J.M.Thorlacius, S. Leppänen, R. Bossi, H. Skov, S. Manø, G.W. Patton, G. Stern, E.Sverko, and P. Fellin, 2010: Atmospheric monitoring of organic pollutants in theArctic under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP): 1993-2006. Science of the Total Environment, 408(15), 2854-2873.

Hunt Jr., G.L., K.O. Coyle, L.B. Eisner, E.V. Farley, R.A. Heintz, F. Mueter, J.M. Napp, J.E.Overland, P.H. Ressler, S. Salo, and P.J. Stabeno, 2011: Climate impacts on easternBering Sea foodwebs: a synthesis of new data and an assessment of theOscillating Control Hypothesis. International Council for the Exploration of theSea (ICES) Journal of Marine Science, 68(6), 1230-1243.

Hunt Jr., G.L., A.L. Blanchard, P. Boveng, P. Dalpadado, K.F. Drinkwater, L. Eisner, R.R.Hopcroft, K.M. Kovacs, B.L. Norcross, P. Renaud, M. Reigstad, M. Renner, H.R.Skjoldal, A. Whitehouse, and R.A. Woodgate, 2013: The Barents and ChukchiSeas: comparison of two Arctic shelf ecosystems. Journal of Marine Systems,109-110, 43-68.

Hunter, C.M., H. Caswell, M.C. Runge, E.V. Regehr, S.C. Amstrup, and I. Stirling, 2010:Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographicanalysis. Ecology, 91(10), 2883-2897.

Huntington, H., L. Hamilton, C. Nicolson, R. Brunner, A. Lynch, A. Ogilvie, and A.Voinov, 2007: Toward understanding the human dimensions of the rapidlychanging arctic system: insights and approaches from five HARC projects.Regional Environmental Change, 7(4), 173-186.

Huntington, O.H. and A. Watson, 2012: Interdisciplinarity, native resilience, and howthe riddles can teach wildlife law in an era of rapid climate change. WicazōaReview, 27(2), 49-73.

Hurst, T.P., E.R. Fernandez, J.T. Mathis, J.A. Miller, C.M. Stinson, and E.F. Ahgeak, 2012:Resiliency of juvenile walleye pollock to projected levels of ocean acidification.Aquatic Biology, 17, 247-259.

Huse, G. and I. Ellingsen, 2008: Capelin migrations and climate change – a modellinganalysis. Climatic Change, 87(1-2), 177-197.

IAATO, 2012: IAATO Overview of Antarctic Tourism: 2011-12 Season and PreliminaryEstimates for 2012-13 Season. Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting XXXV,Hobart, Australia, Information Paper 39, International Association of AntarcticTour Operators (IAATO), Newport, RI, USA, 19 pp.

Ignatowski, J. and J. Rosales, 2013: Identifying the exposure of two subsistencevillages in Alaska to climate change using traditional ecological knowledge.Climatic Change, 121(2), 285-299.

Ims, R.A., N.G. Yoccoz, K.A. Bråthen, P. Fauchald, T. Tveraa, and V. Hausner, 2007: Canreindeer overabundance cause a trophic cascade? Ecosystems, 10(4), 607-622.

Ims, R.A., N.G. Yoccoz, and S.T. Killengreen, 2011: Determinants of lemmingoutbreaks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the UnitedStates of America, 108(5), 1970-1974.

Ingram, K.T., M.C. Roncoli, and P.H. Kirshen, 2002: Opportunities and constraints forfarmers of west Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Fasoas a case study. Agricultural Systems, 74(3), 331-349.

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of WorkingGroup I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B.Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,UK and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance ClimateChange Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker,D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K.Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,UK and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp.

Irons, D.B., T. Anker-Nilssen, A.J. Gaston, G.V. Byrd, K. Falk, G. Gilchrist, M. Hario, M.Hjernquist, Y.V. Krasnov, A. Mosbech, B. Olsen, A. Petersen, J.B. Reid, G.J. Robertson,H. Strom, and K.D. Wohl, 2008: Fluctuations in circumpolar seabird populationslinked to climate oscillations. Global Change Biology, 14(7), 1455-1463.

Iverson, S.J., I. Stirling, and S.L.C. Lang, 2006: Spatial and temporal variation in thediets of polar bears across the Canadian Arctic: indicators of changes in preypopulations and environment. In: Top Predators in Marine Ecosystems [Boyd,I.L., S. Wanless, and C.J. Camphuysen (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, UK, pp. 98-117.

Jansson, M., A. Jonsson, A. Andersson, and J. Karlsson, 2010: Biomass and structureof planktonic communities along an air temperature gradient in subarcticSweden. Freshwater Biology, 55(3), 691-700.

Jarvis, T., N. Kelly, S. Kawaguchi, E. van Wijk, and S. Nicol, 2010: Acoustic characterisationof the broad-scale distribution and abundance of Antarctic krill (Euphausiasuperba) off East Antarctica (30-80°E) in January-March 2006. Deep-SeaResearch Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 57(9-10), 916-933.

Jenouvrier, S., C. Barbraud, B. Cazelles, and H. Weimerskirch, 2005a: Modellingpopulation dynamics of seabirds: importance of the effects of climate fluctuationson breeding proportions. Oikos, 108(3), 511-522.

Jenouvrier, S., H. Weimerskirch, C. Barbraud, Y.H. Park, and B. Cazelles, 2005b:Evidence of a shift in the cyclicity of Antarctic seabird dynamics linked toclimate. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 272(1566), 887-895.

Jenouvrier, S., H. Caswell, C. Barbraud, M. Holland, J. Stroeve, and H. Weimerskirch,2009: Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the declineof an emperor penguin population. Proceedings of the National Academy ofSciences of the United States of America, 106(6), 1844-1847.

Jenouvrier, S., M. Holland, J. Stroeve, C. Barbraud, H. Weimerskirch, M. Serreze, andH. Caswell, 2012: Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population:analysis of coupled demographic and climate models. Global Change Biology,18(9), 2756-2770.

Jepsen, J.U., L. Kapari, S.B. Hagen, T. Schott, O.P.L. Vindstad, A.C. Nilssen, and R.A.Ims, 2011: Rapid northwards expansion of a forest insect pest attributed tospring phenology matching with sub-Arctic birch. Global Change Biology,17(6), 2071-2083.

Jepsen, J.U., S.B. Hagen, R.A. Ims, and N.G. Yoccoz, 2008: Climate change andoutbreaks of the geometrids Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata insubarctic birch forest: evidence of a recent outbreak range expansion. Journalof Animal Ecology, 77(2), 257-264.

Jernsletten, J.-L.L. and K. Klokov, 2002: Sustainable Reindeer Husbandry. ArcticCouncil and Centre for Saami Studies of the University of Tromsø, Tromsø,Norway, 157 pp.

Ji, R., C.J. Ashjian, R.G. Campbell, C. Chen, G. Gao, C.S. Davis, G.W. Cowles, and R.C.Beardsley, 2012: Life history and biogeography of Calanus copepods in theArctic Ocean: an individual-based modeling study. Progress in Oceanography,96(1), 40-56.

Johansson, C., V.A. Pohjola, C. Jonasson, and T.V. Callaghan, 2011: Multi-decadalchanges in snow characteristics in sub-Arctic Sweden. AMBIO: A Journal of theHuman Environment, 40(6), 566-574.

Joly, K., D.R. Klein, D.L. Verbyla, T.S. Rupp, and F.S. Chapin, 2011: Linkages betweenlarge-scale climate patterns and the dynamics of Arctic caribou populations.Ecography, 34(2), 345-352.

Juday, G.P., 2009: Boreal forests and climate change. In: Oxford Companion to GlobalChange [Goudie, A. and D. Cuff (eds.)]. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, pp.75-84.

Kahru, M., V. Brotas, M. Manzano-Sarabia, and B.G. Mitchell, 2011: Are phytoplanktonblooms occurring earlier in the Arctic? Global Change Biology, 17(4), 1733-1739.

Kaplan, J.O. and M. New, 2006: Arctic climate change with a 2°C global warming: timing,climate patterns and vegetation change. Climatic Change, 79(3-4), 213-241.

Page 38: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1604

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Karnovsky, N., A. Harding, W. Walkusz, S. Kwasniewski, I. Goszczko, J. Wiktor, H.Routti, A. Bailey, L. McFadden, Z. Brown, G. Beaugrand, and D. Gremillet, 2010:Foraging distributions of little auks Alle alle across the Greenland Sea:implications of present and future Arctic climate change. Marine EcologyProgress Series, 415, 283-293.

Kausrud, K.L., A. Mysterud, H. Steen, J.O. Vik, E. Østbye, B. Cazelles, E. Framstad, A.M,Eikeset, I. Mysterud, T. Solhøy, and N.C. Stenseth, 2008: Linking climate changeto lemming cycles. Nature, 456(7218), 93-97.

Kawaguchi, S., S. Nicol, and A.J. Press, 2009: Direct effects of climate change on theAntarctic krill fishery. Fisheries Management and Ecology, 16(5), 424-427.

Kawaguchi, S., H. Kurihara, R. King, L. Hale, T. Berli, J.P. Robinson, A. Ishida, M. Wakita,P. Virtue, S. Nicol, and A. Ishimatsu, 2011: Will krill fare well under SouthernOcean acidification? Biology Letters, 7(2), 288-291.

Kawaguchi, S., A. Ishida, R. King, B. Raymond, N. Waller, A. Constable, S. Nicol, M.Wakita, and A. Ishimatsu, 2013: Risk maps for Antarctic krill under projectedSouthern Ocean acidification. Nature Climate Change, 3, 843-847.

Keskitalo, E., 2008: Vulnerability and adaptive capacity in forestry in northern Europe:a Swedish case study. Climatic Change, 87(1), 219-234.

Keskitalo, E., 2009: Governance in vulnerability assessment: the role of globalisingdecision-making networks in determining local vulnerability and adaptive capacity.Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 14(2), 185-201.

Kharuk, V.I., K.J. Ranson, S.T. Im, and M.M. Naurzbaev, 2006: Forest-tundra larchforests and climatic trends. Russian Journal of Ecology, 37(5), 291-298.

Khon, V., I. Mokhov, M. Latif, V. Semenov, and W. Park, 2010: Perspectives of NorthernSea Route and Northwest Passage in the twenty-first century. Climatic Change,100(3), 757-768.

Kilpeläinen, A., H. Gregow, H. Strandman, S. Kellomäki, A. Venäläinen, and H. Peltola,2010: Impacts of climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damagein Finland. Climatic Change, 99(1-2), 193-209.

Kitti, H., B.C. Forbes, and J. Oksanen, 2009: Long- and short-term effects of reindeergrazing on tundra wetland vegetation. Polar Biology, 32(2), 253-261.

Kokelj, S.V., B. Zajdlik, and M.S. Thompson, 2009: The impacts of thawing permafroston the chemistry of lakes across the subarctic boreal-tundra transition, MackenzieDelta region, Canada. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 20(2), 185-199.

Kotwicki, S. and R.R. Lauth, 2013: Detecting temporal trends and environmentally-driven changes in the spatial distribution of groundfishes and crabs on the easternBering Sea shelf. Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography,94, 155-175.

Kovacs, K.M. and C. Lydersen, 2008: Climate change impacts on seals and whales in theNorth Atlantic Arctic and adjacent shelf seas. Science Progress, 91(Pt 2), 117-150.

Kovacs, K.M., C. Lydersen, J.E. Overland, and S.E. Moore, 2010: Impacts of changing sea-ice conditions on Arctic marine mammals. Marine Biodiversity, 41(1), 181-194.

Krebs, C.J., 2011: Of lemmings and snowshoe hares: the ecology of northern Canada.Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 278(1705), 481-489.

Kristiansen, T., K.F. Drinkwater, R.G. Lough, and S. Sundby, 2011: Recruitmentvariability in North Atlantic cod and match-mismatch dynamics. PLoS ONE, 6(3),e17456, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0017456.

Krupnik, I. and D. Jolly (eds.), 2002: The Earth Is Faster Now: Indigenous Observationsof Arctic Environmental Change. Frontiers in Polar Social Science, ArcticResearch Consortium of the United States, Fairbanks, AK, USA, 383 pp.

Krupnik, I. and G.C. Ray, 2007: Pacific walruses, indigenous hunters, and climatechange: bridging scientific and indigenous knowledge. Deep-Sea Research PartII: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 54(23-26), 2946-2957.

Krupnik, I., C. Aporta, S. Gearheard, G.J. Laidler, and L. Kielsen Holm (eds.), 2010:SIKU: Knowing Our Ice –Documenting Inuit Sea Ice Knowledge and Use.Springer, New York, NY, USA, 501 pp.

Krupnik, I., I. Allison, R. Bell, R. Cutler, D. Hik, J. López-Martínez, V. Rachold, E.Sarukhanian, and C. Summerhayes (eds.), 2011: Understanding Earth’s PolarChallenges: International Polar Year 2007-2008 – Summary by the IPY JointCommittee. University of the Arctic Publications Series No. 4, InternationalCouncil for Science (ICSU)/World Meteorological Organization (WMO) JointCommittee for International Polar Year 2007-2008, CCI Press, Edmonton, AB,Canada and University of the Arctic, Rovaniemi, Finland, 695 pp.

Kullman, L. and L. Öberg, 2009: Post-Little Ice Age tree line rise and climate warmingin the Swedish Scandes: a landscape ecological perspective. Journal of Ecology,97(3), 415-429.

Kumpula, T., A. Pajunen, E. Kaarlejärvi, B.C. Forbes, and F. Stammler, 2011: Land useand land cover change in Arctic Russia: ecological and social implications ofindustrial development. Global Environmental Change, 21(2), 550-562.

Kumpula, T., B.C. Forbes, F. Stammler, and N. Meschtyb, 2012: Dynamics of a coupledsystem: multi-resolution remote sensing in assessing social-ecologicalresponses during 25 years of gas field development in Arctic Russia. RemoteSensing, 4(4), 1046-1068.

Lack, D.A. and J.J. Corbett, 2012: Black carbon from ships: a review of the effects ofship speed, fuel quality and exhaust gas scrubbing. Atmospheric Chemistry andPhysics, 12, 3985-4000.

Laidler, G.J., T. Hirose, M. Kapfer, T. Ikummaq, E. Joamie, and P. Elee, 2011: Evaluatingthe Floe Edge Service: how well can SAR imagery address Inuit communityconcerns around sea ice change and travel safety? Canadian Geographer / LeGéographe Canadien, 55(1), 91-107.

Laidre, K.L., I. Stirling, L.F. Lowry, Ø. Wiig, M.P. Heide-Jørgensen, and S.H. Ferguson,2008: Quantifying the sensitivity of arctic marine mammals to climate-inducedhabitat change. Ecological Applications, 18(Suppl.), S97-S125.

Landerer, F.W., J.O. Dickey, and A. Güntner, 2010: Terrestrial water budget of theEurasian pan-Arctic from GRACE satellite measurements during 2003-2009.Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115(D23), D23115, doi:10.1029/2010JD014584.

Lantz, T.C. and S.V. Kokelj, 2008: Increasing rates of retrogressive thaw slump activityin the Mackenzie Delta region, N.W.T., Canada. Geophysical Research Letters,35(6), L06502, doi:10.1029/2007GL032433.

Larsen, J.N. and L. Huskey, 2010: Material wellbeing in the Arctic. In: Arctic SocialIndicators: A Follow-Up to the Arctic Human Development Report [Larsen, J.N.,P. Schweitzer, and G. Fondahl (eds.)]. TemaNord 2010:519, Nordic Council ofMinisters, Copenhagen, Denmark, pp. 47-66.

Larsen, J.N., P. Schweitzer, and G. Fondahl (eds.), 2010: Arctic Social Indicators: AFollow-Up to the Arctic Human Development Report. TemaNord 2010:519,Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, Denmark,160 pp.

Laurion, I., W.F. Vincent, S. MacIntyre, L. Retamal, C. Dupont, P. Francus, and R. Pienitz,2010: Variability in greenhouse gas emissions from permafrost thaw ponds.Limonology and Oceanography, 55(1), 115-133.

Lee, S., M. Jin, and T. Whitledge, 2010: Comparison of bottom sea-ice algalcharacteristics from coastal and offshore regions in the Arctic Ocean. PolarBiology, 33(10), 1331-1337.

Lesack, L.F.W. and P. Marsh, 2007: Lengthening plus shortening of river-to-lakeconnection times in the Mackenzie River Delta respectively via two globalchange mechanisms along the arctic coast. Geophysical Research Letters,34(23), L23404, doi:10.1029/2007GL031656.

Lesack, L.F.W. and P. Marsh, 2010: River-to-lake connectivities, water renewal, andaquatic habitat diversity in the Mackenzie River Delta. Water ResourcesResearch, 46(12), W12504, doi:10.1029/2010WR009607.

Levintova, M, W.I. Zapol, and N. Engmann (eds.), 2010: Behavioral and mental healthresearch in the Arctic: a strategy setting meeting. International Journal ofCircumpolar Health, 5(Suppl.), 64 pp.

Lewis, T. and S.F. Lamoureux, 2010: Twenty-first century discharge and sediment yieldpredictions in a small high Arctic watershed. Global and Planetary Change,71(1-2), 27-41.

Li, W.K.W., F.A. McLaughlin, C. Lovejoy, and E.C. Carmack, 2009: Smallest algae thriveas Arctic Ocean freshens. Science, 326(5952), 539, doi:10.1126/science.1179798.

Lima, M. and S.A. Estay, 2013: Warming effects in the western Antarctic Peninsulaecosystem: the role of population dynamic models for explaining and predictingpenguin trends. Population Ecology, 55(4), 557-565.

Lind, S. and R.B. Ingvaldsen, 2012: Variability and impacts of Atlantic water enteringthe Barents Sea from the north. Deep-Sea Research Part I: OceanographicResearch Papers, 62, 70-88.

Lindgren, E. and R. Gustafson, 2001: Tick-borne encephalitis in Sweden and climatechange. The Lancet, 358(9275), 16-18.

Lindholt, L., 2006: Arctic natural resources in a global perspective. In: The Economyof the North [Glomsrød, S. and I. Aslaksen (eds.)]. Statistics Norway, Oslo,Norway, pp. 27-39.

Lindholdt, L. and S. Glomsrød, 2012: The Arctic: no big bonanza for the globalpetroleum industry. Energy Economics, 34(5), 1465-1474.

Livingston, P., K. Aydin, J.L. Boldt, A.B. Hollowed, and J.M. Napp, 2011: Alaska marinefisheries management: advancements and linkages to ecosystem research. In:Ecosystem Based Management: An Evolving Perspective [Belgrano, A. and C.Fowler (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 113-152.

Lloyd, A.H., A.G. Bunn, and L. Berner, 2011: A latitudinal gradient in tree growthresponse to climate warming in the Siberian taiga. Global Change Biology,17(5), 1935-1945.

Page 39: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1605

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

Long, W.C., K.M. Swiney, C. Harris, H.N. Page, and R.J. Foy, 2013: Effects of oceanacidification on juvenile red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) and Tannercrab (Chionoecetes bairdi) growth, condition, calcification, and survival. PLoSONE, 8(4), e60959, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0060959.

Lorenzen, E.D., D. Nogués-Bravo, L. Orlando, J. Weinstock, J. Binladen, K.A. Marske,A. Ugan, M.K. Borregaard, M.T.P. Gilbert, R. Nielsen, S.Y.W. Ho, T. Goebel, K.E.Graf, D. Byers, J.T. Stenderup, M. Rasmussen, P.F. Campos, J.A. Leonard, K.-P.Koepfli, D. Froese, G. Zazula, T.W. Stafford, K. Aaris-Sørensen, P. Batra, A.M.Haywood, J.S. Singarayer, P.J. Valdes, G. Boeskorov, J.A. Burns, S.P. Davydov, J.Haile, D.L. Jenkins, P. Kosintsev, T. Kuznetsova, X. Lai, L.D. Martin, H.G. McDonald,D. Mol, M. Meldgaard, K. Munch, E. Stephan, M. Sablin, R.S. Sommer, T. Sipko,E. Scott, M.A. Suchard, A. Tikhonov, R. Willerslev, R.K. Wayne, A. Cooper, M.Hofreiter, A. Sher, B. Shapiro, C. Rahbek, and E. Willerslev, 2011: Species-specificresponses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans. Nature,479(7373), 359-364.

Lund, D.H., K. Sehested, T. Hellesen, and V. Nellemann, 2012: Climate changeadaptation in Denmark: enhancement through collaboration and meta-governance? Local Environment, 17(6-7), 613-628.

Lynch, H.J., R. Naveen, P.N. Trathan, and W.F. Fagan, 2012: Spatially integratedassessment reveals widespread changes in penguin populations on theAntarctic Peninsula. Ecology, 93(6), 1367-1377.

Lynn, K., J. Daigle, J. Hoffman, F. Lake, N. Michelle, D. Ranco, C. Viles, G. Voggesser,and P. Williams, 2013: The impacts of climate change on tribal traditional foods.Climatic Change, 120(3), 545-556.

Lyons, W.B., J. Laybourn-Parry, K.A. Welch, and J.C. Priscu, 2006: Antarctic lakesystems and climate change. In: Trends in Antarctic Terrestrial and LimneticEcosystems: Antarctica as a Global Indicator [Bergstrom, D.M., P. Convey, andA.H.L. Huiskes (eds.)]. Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 273-295.

Ma, J., H. Hung, C. Tian, and R. Kallenborn, 2001: Revolatilization of persistent organicpollutants in the Arctic induced by climate change. Nature Climate Change, 1,255-260.

MacCracken, J.G., 2012: Pacific walrus and climate change: observations andpredictions. Ecology and Evolution, 2(8), 2072-2090.

MacDonald, G.M., K.V. Kremenetski, and D.W. Beilman, 2008: Climate change andthe northern Russian treeline zone. Philosophical Transactions of the RoyalSociety B, 363(1501), 2285-2299.

Macias-Fauria, M., B.C. Forbes, P. Zetterberg, and T. Kumpula, 2012: Eurasian Arcticgreening reveals teleconnections and the potential for novel ecosystems.Nature Climate Change, 2, 613-618.

Mack, M.C., M.S. Bret-Harte, T.N. Hollingsworth, R.R. Jandt, E.A.G. Schuur, G.R. Shaver,and D.L. Verbyla, 2011: Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundrawildfire. Nature, 475(7357), 489-492.

Mackey, A.P., A. Atkinson, S.L. Hill, P. Ward, N.J. Cunningham, N.M. Johnston, and E.J.Murphy, 2012: Antarctic macrozooplankton of the southwest Atlantic sectorand Bellingshausen Sea: baseline historical distributions (Discovery Investigations,1928-1935) related to temperature and food, with projections for subsequentocean warming. Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography,59, 130-146.

Magga, O.H., S.D. Mathiesen, R.W. Corell, and A. Oskal, 2011: Reindeer Herding,Traditional Knowledge and Adaptation to Climate Change and Loss of GrazingLand. Part of the Ipy Ealát Consortium, the Ealát Project (Ipy # 399), ReindeerHerders Vulnerability Network Study: Reindeer Pastoralism in a ChangingClimate, A Project led by Norway and the Association of World Reindeer Herders(WRH) in Arctic Council, Sustainable Development Working Group (SDWG),International Centre for Reindeer Husbandry, Kautokeino, Norway, 75 pp.

Mahoney, A., S. Gearheard, T. Oshima, and T. Qillaq, 2009: Sea ice thicknessmeasurements from a community-based observing network. Bulletin of theAmerican Meteorological Society, 90(3), 370-377.

Maldonado, J.K., C. Shearer, R. Bronen, K. Peterson, and H. Lazrus, 2013: The impactof climate change on tribal communities in the US: displacement, relocation,and human rights. Climatic Change, 120(3), 601-614.

Mamet, S.D. and G.P. Kershaw, 2012: Subarctic and alpine tree line dynamics duringthe last 400 years in north-western and central Canada. Journal of Biogeography,39(5), 855-868.

Marsh, P., M. Russell, S. Pohl, H. Haywood, and C. Onclin, 2009: Changes in thaw lakedrainage in the western Canadian Arctic from 1950 to 2000. HydrologicalProcesses, 23(1), 145-158.

Massom, R.A. and S.E. Stammerjohn, 2010: Antarctic sea ice change and variability– physical and ecological implications. Polar Science, 4(2), 149-186.

Mathiesen, S.D., B. Alfthan, R. Corell, R.B.M. Eira, I.M.G. Eira, A. Degteva, K.I. Johnsen,A. Oskal, M. Roué, M.N. Sara, E.R. Skum, E.I. Tury, and J.M. Turi, 2013: Strategiesto enhance the resilience of Sámi reindeer husbandry to rapid changes in theArctic. In: Arctic Resilience Interim Report 2013. Stockholm Environment Institute(SEI) and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden, pp. 109-112.

Matrai, P.A., E. Olson, S. Suttles, V. Hill, L.A. Codispoti, B. Light, and M. Steele, 2013:Synthesis of primary production in the Arctic Ocean: I. Surface waters, 1954-2007. Progress in Oceanography, 110, 93-106.

Matthews, C., S. Luque, S. Petersen, R. Andrews, and S. Ferguson, 2011: Satellitetracking of a killer whale (Orcinus orca) in the eastern Canadian Arctic documentsice avoidance and rapid, long-distance movement into the North Atlantic. PolarBiology, 34(7), 1091-1096.

Maynard, N.G., 2006: Satellites, settlements, and human health. In: Remote Sensingof Human Settlements [Ridd, M. and J.D. Hipple (eds.)]. Manual of RemoteSensing, 3rd edn., Vol. 5, American Society of Photogrammetry and RemoteSensing (ASPRS), Bethesda, MD, USA, pp. 379-399.

Maynard, N.G. and G.A. Conway, 2007: A view from above: use of satellite imageryto enhance our understanding of potential impacts of climate change on humanhealth in the Arctic. Alaska Medicine, 49(2 Suppl.), 38-43.

Maynard, N.G., A. Oskal, J.M. Turi, S.D. Mathiesen, I.M.G. Eira, B. Yurchak, V. Etylin,and J. Gebelein, 2011: Impacts of Arctic climate and land use changes onreindeer pastoralism: indigenous knowledge and remote sensing. In: EurasianArctic Land Cover and Land Use in a Changing Climate [Gutman, G. and A.Reissell (eds.)]. Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 177-205.

McLaughlin, J.B., A. DePaola, C.A. Bopp, K.A. Martinek, N.P. Napolilli, C.G. Allison,S.L. Murray, E.C. Thompson, M.M. Bird, and J.P. Middaugh, 2005: Outbreak ofVibrio parahaemolyticus gastroenteritis associated with Alaskan oysters. NewEngland Journal of Medicine, 353(14), 1463-1470.

McLeod, D., G. Hallegraeff, G. Hosie, and A. Richardson, 2012: Climate-driven rangeexpansion of the red-tide dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans into the SouthernOcean. Journal of Plankton Research 34(4), 332-337.

McNamara, J.P. and D.L. Kane, 2009: The impact of a shrinking cryosphere on theform of arctic alluvial channels. Hydrological Processes, 23(1), 159-168.

McNeeley, S.M., 2012: Examining barriers and opportunities for sustainableadaptation to climate change in Interior Alaska. Climatic Change, 111(3-4),835-857.

Mehlum, F. 2012: Effects of sea ice on breeding numbers and clutch size of a HighArctic population of the common eider Somateria mollissima. Polar Science,6(1), 143-153.

Melbourne-Thomas, J., A. Constable, S. Wotherspoon, and B. Raymond, 2013: Testingparadigms of ecosystem change under climate warming in Antarctica. PLoSONE, 8(2), e55093, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0055093.

Melles, M., J. Brigham-Grette, O.Y. Glushkova, P.S. Minyuk, N.R. Nowaczyk, andH.-W. Hubberten, 2007: Sedimentary geochemistry of core PG1351 from LakeEl’gygytgyn – a sensitive record of climate variability in the East Siberian Arcticduring the past three glacial-interglacial cycles. Journal of Paleolimnology,37(1), 89-104.

Merino, G., M. Barange, J.L. Blanchard, J. Harle, R. Holmes, I. Allen, E.H. Allison, M.C.Badjeck, N.K. Dulvy, J. Holt, S. Jennings, C. Mullon, and L.D. Rodwell, 2012: Canmarine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing humanpopulation in a changing climate? Global Environmental Change, 22(4), 795-806.

Meschtyb, N., B. Forbes, and P. Kankaanpää, 2005: Social impact assessment alongRussia’s Northern Sea Route: petroleum transport and the Arctic OperationalPlatform (ARCOP). Arctic, 58(3), 322-327.

Mesquita, P.S., F.J. Wrona, and T.D. Prowse, 2010: Effects of retrogressive permafrostthaw slumping on sediment chemistry and submerged macrophytes in Arctictundra lakes. Freshwater Biology, 55(11), 2347-2358.

Metje, M. and P. Frenzel, 2007: Methanogenesis and methanogenic pathways in apeat from subarctic permafrost. Environmental Microbiology, 9(4), 954-964.

Miller, F.L. and S.J. Barry, 2009: Long-term control of Peary caribou numbers byunpredictable, exceptionally severe snow or ice conditions in a non-equilibriumgrazing system. Arctic, 62(2), 175-189.

Miller, W., S.C. Schuster, A.J. Welch, A. Ratan, O.C. Bedoya-Reina, F. Zhao, H.L. Kim,R.C. Burhans, D.I. Drautz, N.E. Wittekindt, L.P. Tomsho, E. Ibarra-Laclette, L.Herrera-Estrella, E. Peacock, S. Farley, G.K. Sage, K. Rode, M. Obbard, R. Montiel,L. Bachmann, Ó. Ingólfsson, J. Aars, T. Mailund, Ø. Wiig, S.L. Talbot, and C.Lindqvist, 2012: Polar and brown bear genomes reveal ancient admixture anddemographic footprints of past climate change. Proceedings of the NationalAcademy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(36), E2382-E2390

Page 40: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1606

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Milliman, J.D., K.L. Farnsworth, P.D. Jones, K.H. Xu, and L.C. Smith, 2008: Climaticand anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951-2000. Global and Planetary Change, 62(3-4), 187-194.

Milner, A.M., L.E. Brown, and D.M. Hannah, 2009: Hydroecological response of riversystems to shrinking glaciers. Hydrological Processes, 23(1), 62-77.

Moe, B., L. Stempniewicz, D. Jakubas, F. Angelier, O. Chastel, F. Dinessen, G.W.Gabrielsen, F. Hanssen, N.J. Karnovsky, B. Ronning, J. Welcker, K. Wojczulanis-Jakubas, and C. Bech, 2009: Climate change and phenological responses oftwo seabird species breeding in the High-Arctic. Marine Ecology Progress Series,393, 235-246.

Moen, J., K. Aune, L. Edenius, and A. Angerbjörn, 2004: Potential effects of climatechange on treeline position in the Swedish mountains. Ecology and Society,9(1), www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art16/.

Mokhov, I.I. and V.C. Khon, 2008: Assessment of the Northern Sea Route perspectivesunder climate changes on the basis of simulations with the climate modelsensemble. In: Natural Processes in Polar Regions, Part 2 [Kotlijakov, V.M. (ed.)].Vol. III of the Changes of Natural Environment and Climate: Natural andPossible Consequent Human-induced Catastrophes Series, The Institute ofGeography (IG), Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), IG RAS, Moscow, Russia,pp. 20-27.

Molenaar, E.J., 2009: Climate change and Arctic fisheries. In: Climate Governance inthe Arctic [Koivurova, T., E.C.H. Keskitalo, and N. Bankes (eds.)]. Springer,Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 145-169.

Moline, M.A., N.J. Karnovsky, Z. Brown, G.J. Divoky, T.K. Frazer, C.A. Jacoby, J.J. Torrese,and W.R. Fraser, 2008: High latitude changes in ice dynamics and their impacton polar marine ecosystems. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences,1134(1), 267-319.

Molnar, P.K., A.E. Derocher, T. Klanjscek, and M.A. Lewis, 2011: Predicting climatechange impacts on polar bear litter size. Nature Communications, 2, 186,doi:10.1038/ncomms1183.

Monnett, C. and J. Gleason, 2006: Observations of mortality associated withextended open-water swimming by polar bears in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea.Polar Biology, 29(8), 681-687.

Montes-Hugo, M., S.C. Doney, H.W. Ducklow, W. Fraser, D. Martinson, S.E. Stammerjohn,and O. Schofield, 2009: Recent changes in phytoplankton communities associatedwith rapid regional climate change along the Western Antarctic Peninsula.Science, 323(5920), 1470-1473.

Moore, R.D., S.W. Fleming, B. Menounos, R. Wheate, A. Fountain, K. Stahl, K. Holm,and M. Jakob, 2009: Glacier change in western North America: influences onhydrology, geomorphic hazards and water quality. Hydrological Processes,23(25), 42-61.

Moore, S.E., 2008: Marine mammals as ecosystem sentinels. Journal of Mammology,89(3), 534-540.

Moore, S.E. and H.P. Huntington, 2008: Arctic marine mammals and climate change:impacts and resilience. Ecological Applications: A Publication of the EcologicalSociety of America, 18(2 Suppl.), s157-s165.

Morán, X.A.G., Á. López-Urrutia, A. Calvo-Díaz, and W.K.W. Li, 2010: Increasingimportance of small phytoplankton in a warmer ocean. Global Change Biology,16(3), 1137-1144.

Moy, A.D., W.R. Howard, S.G. Bray, and T.W. Trull, 2009: Reduced calcification inmodern Southern Ocean planktonic foraminifera. Nature Geoscience, 2(4), 276-280.

Mueter, F.J. and M.A. Litzow, 2008: Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of theBering Sea continental shelf. Ecological Applications, 18(2), 309-320.

Mueter, F.J., J.L. Boldt, B.A. Megrey, and R.M. Peterman, 2007: Recruitment andsurvival of northeast Pacific Ocean fish stocks: temporal trends, covariation,and regime shifts. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 64(6),911-927.

Mueter, F.J., N.A. Bond, J.N. Ianelli, and A.B. Hollowed, 2011: Expected declines inrecruitment of walleye pollock (Theragra chacogramma) in the eastern BeringSea under future climate change. International Council for the Exploration ofthe Sea (ICES) Journal of Marine Science, 68(6), 1284-1296.

Mundy, P.R. and D.F.Evenson, 2011: Environmental controls of phenology of high-latitude Chinook salmon populations of the Yukon River, North America, withapplication to fishery management. International Council for the Explorationof the Sea (ICES) Journal of Marine Science, 68(6), 1155-1164.

Murphy, E., J. Watkins, P. Trathan, K. Reid, M. Meredith, S. Thorpe, N. Johnston, A.Clarke, G. Tarling, M. Collins, J. Forcada, R. Shreeve, A. Atkinson, R. Korb, M.Whitehouse, P. Ward, P. Rodhouse, P. Enderlein, A. Hirst, A. Martin, S. Hill, I.

Staniland, D. Pond, D. Briggs, N. Cunningham, and A. Fleming, 2007: Spatialand temporal operation of the Scotia Sea ecosystem: a review of large-scalelinks in a krill centred food web. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyB, 362(1477), 113-148.

Murphy, E.J., R.D. Cavanagh, E.E. Hofmann, S.L. Hill, A.J. Constable, D.P. Costa, M.H.Pinkerton, N.M. Johnston, P.N. Trathan, J.M. Klinck, D.A. Wolf-Gladrow, K.L. Daly,O. Maury, and S.C. Doney, 2012a: Developing integrated models of SouthernOcean food webs: including ecological complexity, accounting for uncertaintyand the importance of scale. Progress in Oceanography, 102, 74-92.

Murphy, E.J., J.L. Watkins, P.N. Trathan, K. Reid, M.P. Meredith, S.L. Hill, S.E. Thorpe, N.M.Johnston, A. Clarke, G.A. Tarling, M.A. Collins, J. Forcada, A. Atkinson, P. Ward, I.J.Staniland, D.W. Pond, R.A. Cavanagh, R.S. Shreeve, R.E. Korb, M.J. Whitehouse,P.G. Rodhouse, P. Enderlein, A.G. Hirst, A.R. Martin, D.R. Briggs, N.J. Cunningham,and A.H. Fleming, 2012b: Spatial and temporal operation of Scotia Sea ecosystem.In: Antarctic Ecosystems [Rogers, A., N. Johnston, E. Murphy, and A. Clarke (eds.)].Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, UK, and Hoboken, NJ, USA, pp. 160-212.

Murphy, E.J., E.E. Hofmann, J.L. Watkins, N.M. Johnston, A. Piñones, T. Ballerini, S.L.Hill, P.N. Trathan, G.A. Tarling, R.A. Cavanagh, E.F. Young, S.E. Thorpe, and P.Fretwell, 2013: Comparison of the structure and function of Southern Oceanregional ecosystems: the Antarctic Peninsula and South Georgia. Journal ofMarine Systems, 109-110, 22-42.

Myers-Smith, I.H., B.C. Forbes, M. Wilmking, M. Hallinger, T. Lantz, D. Blok, K.D. Tape,M. MacIas-Fauria, U. Sass-Klaassen, E. Lévesque, S. Boudreau, P. Ropars, L.Hermanutz, A. Trant, L.S. Collier, S. Weijers, J. Rozema, S.A. Rayback, N.M.Schmidt, G. Schaepman-Strub, S. Wipf, C. Rixen, C.B. Ménard, S. Venn, S. Goetz,L. Andreu-Hayles, S. Elmendorf, V. Ravolainen, J. Welker, P. Grogan, H.E. Epstein,and D.S. Hik, 2011a: Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: dynamics, impactsand research priorities. Environmental Research Letters, 6(4), 045509,doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045509.

Myers-Smith, I.H., D.S. Hik, C. Kennedy, D. Cooley, J.F. Johnstone, A.J. Kenney, andC.J. Krebs, 2011b: Expansion of canopy-forming willows over the twentiethcentury on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada. AMBIO: A Journal of theHuman Environment, 40(6), 610-623.

Nakashima, D.J., K.G. McLean, H. Thulstrup, R.C. Ameyali, and J. Rubis, 2012: IndigenousKnowledge, Marginalized Peoples and Climate Change: Foundations forAssessment and Adaptation. Technical Report prepared for Working Group IIof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, United Nations Educational,Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Paris, France, and UnitedNations University (UNU), Darwin, Australia, 82 pp.

Nayha, S., 2005: Environmental temperature and mortality. International Journal ofCircumpolar Health, 64(5), 451-458.

Nicol, S. and A. Brierley, 2010: Through a glass less darkly – new approaches forstudying the distribution, abundance and biology of euphausiids. Deep-SeaResearch Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 57(7-8), 496-507.

Nicol, S., T. Pauly, N.L. Bindoff, S. Wright, D. Thiele, G.W. Hosie, P.G. Strutton, and E.Woehler, 2000a: Ocean circulation off east Antarctica affects ecosystem structureand sea-ice extent. Nature, 406(6795), 504-507.

Nicol, S., A.J. Constable, and T. Pauly, 2000b: Estimates of circumpolar abundance ofAntarctic krill based on recent acoustic density measurements. Commission forthe Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Science, 7, 87-99.

Nicol, S., A. Worby, and R. Leaper, 2008: Changes in the Antarctic sea ice ecosystem:potential effects on krill and baleen whales. Marine and Freshwater Research,59(5), 361-382.

Nicol, S., J. Foster, and S. Kawaguchi, 2012: The fishery for Antarctic krill – recentdevelopments. Fish and Fisheries, 13(1), 30-40.

Nikanorov, A., V. Bryzgalo, and G. Chernogaeva, 2007: Anthropogenically modifiednatural background and its formation in the Russian freshwater ecosystems.Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 32(11), 698-710.

NorACIA, 2010: Klimaendringer i Norsk Arktis – Konsekvenser for Livet i Nord. NorskPolarinstitutt (Norwegian Polar Institute) Report 136, Norwegian Arctic ClimateImpact Assessment (NorACIA), NorACIA Sekretariat, Norsk Polarinstitutt,Tromsø, Norway, 131 pp. (in Norwegian).

NRTEE, 2009: True North: Adapting Infrastructure to Climate Change in NorthernCanada. National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE),Ottawa, ON, Canada, 146 pp.

Nuttall, M., F. Berkes, B. Forbes, G. Kofinas, T. Vlassova, and G. Wenzel, 2005: Hunting,herding, fishing and gathering: indigenous peoples and renewable resourceuse in the Arctic. In: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge UniversityPress, New York, NY, USA, 649-690.

Page 41: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1607

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

Ogden, N.H., C. Bouchard, K. Kurtenbach, G. Margos, L.R. Lindsay, L. Trudel, S. Nguon,and F. Milord, 2010: Active and passive surveillance and phylogenetic analysisof Borrelia burgdorferi elucidate the process of lyme disease risk emergence inCanada. Environmental Health Perspectives, 118(7), 909-914.

Olech, M. and K.J. Chwedorzewska, 2011: Short note: the first appearance andestablishment of an alien vascular plant in natural habitats on the forefield ofa retreating glacier in Antarctica. Antarctic Science, 23(02), 153-154.

Olli, K., P. Wassmann, M. Reigstad, T.N. Ratkova, E. Arashkevich, A. Pasternak, P.A.Matrai, J. Knulst, L. Tranvik, R. Klais, and A. Jacobsen, 2007: The fate of productionin the central Arctic Ocean – top-down regulation by zooplankton expatriates?Progress in Oceanography, 72(1), 84-113.

Olofsson, A., O. Danell, P. Forslund, and B. Åhman, 2011: Monitoring changes in lichenresources for range management purposes in reindeer husbandry. EcologicalIndicators, 11(5), 1149-1159.

Olofsson, J., L. Oksanen, T. Callaghan, P.E. Hulme, T. Oksanen, and O. Suominen, 2009:Herbivores inhibit climate-driven shrub expansion on the tundra. Global ChangeBiology, 15(11), 2681-2693.

Olofsson, J., H. Tømmervik, and T.V. Callaghan, 2012: Vole and lemming activityobserved from space. Nature Climate Change, 2, 880-883.

Ormseth, O.A. and B.L. Norcross, 2009: Causes and consequences of life-historyvariation in North American stocks of Pacific cod. International Council for theExploration of the Sea (ICES) Journal of Marine Science, 66(2), 349-357.

Orr, J.C., K. Caldeira, V. Fabry, J.-P. Gattuso, P. Haugan, P. Lethodey, S. Pantoja, H.-O.Pörtner, U. Riebesell, T. Trull, M. Hood, E. Urban, and W. Broadgate, 2009:Research priorities for understanding ocean acidification: summary from thesecond symposium on the ocean in a high-CO2 world. Oceanography, 22(4),182-189.

Oskal, A., 2008: Old livelihoods in new weather: Arctic indigenous reindeer herdersface the challenges of climate change. Development Outreach, 10(1), 22-25.

Østreng, W., 2006: The International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP):applicable lessons learned. Polar Record, 42(1), 71-81.

Outridge, P.M., H. Sanei, G.A. Stern, P.B. Hamilton, and F. Goodarzi, 2007: Evidencefor control of mercury accumulation rates in Canadian High Arctic lakesediments by variations of aquatic primary productivity. Environmental Science& Technology, 41(15), 5259-5265.

Overeem, I. and J.P.M. Syvitski, 2010: Shifting discharge peaks in Arctic rivers, 1977-2007. Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 92(2), 285-296.

Overland, J.E., J.A. Francis, E. Hanna, and M. Wang, 2012: The recent shift in earlysummer Arctic atmospheric circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 39,L19804, doi:10.1029/2012GL053268.

Pagano, A.M., G.M. Durner, S.C. Amstrup, K.S. Simac, and G.S. York, 2012: Long-distance swimming by polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of the southern BeaufortSea during years of extensive open water. Canadian Journal of Zoology, 90(5),663-676.

Parada, C., D.A. Armstrong, B. Ernst, S. Hinckley, and J.M. Orensanz, 2010: Spatialdynamics of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) in the eastern Bering Sea – puttingtogether the pieces of the puzzle. Bulletin of Marine Science, 86(2), 413-437.

Parkinson, A.J., 2009: Sustainable development, climate change and human healthin the Arctic. In: Climate Change and Arctic Sustainable Development: Scientific,Social, Cultural, and Educational Challenges. United Nations Educational,Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Paris, France, pp. 156-163.

Parkinson, A.J. and B. Evengård, 2009: Climate change, its impact on human healthin the Arctic and the public health response to threats of emerging infectiousdiseases. Global Health Action, 2, doi:10.3402/gha.v2i0.2075.

Parkinson, A.J., M.G. Bruce, and T. Zulz, 2008: International Circumpolar Surveillance,an Arctic network for the surveillance of infectious diseases. Emerging InfectiousDiseases, 14(1), 18-24.

Parnikoza, I., P. Convey, I. Dykyy, V. Trokhymets, G. Milinevsky, O. Tyschenko, D.Inozemtseva, and I. Kozeretska, 2009: Current status of the Antarctic herbtundra formation in the Central Argentine Islands. Global Change Biology,15(7), 1685-1693.

Paxian, A., V. Eyring, W. Beer, R. Sausen, and C. Wright, 2010: Present-day and futureglobal bottom-up ship emission inventories including polar routes. EnvironmentalScience & Technology, 44(4), 1333-1339.

Payette, S., 2007: Contrasted dynamics of northern Labrador tree lines caused byclimate change and migrational lag. Ecology, 88(3), 770-780.

Pearson, R.G., S.J. Phillips, M.M. Loranty, P.S.A. Beck, T. Damoulas, S.J. Knight, andS.J. Goetz, 2013: Shifts in Arctic vegetation and associated feedbacks underclimate change. Nature Climate Change, 3, 673-677.

Peck, L.S., D.K.A. Barnes, A.J. Cook, A.H. Fleming, and A. Clarke, 2009: Negativefeedback in the cold: ice retreat produces new carbon sinks in Antarctica. GlobalChange Biology, 16(9), 2614-2623.

Péron, C., M. Authier, C. Barbraud, K. Delord, D. Besson, and H. Weimerskirch, 2010:Interdecadal changes in at-sea distribution and abundance of subantarcticseabirds along a latitudinal gradient in the Southern Indian Ocean. GlobalChange Biology, 16(7), 1895-1909.

Péron, C., H. Weimerskirch, and C.A. Bost, 2012: Projected poleward shift of kingpenguins’ (Aptenodytes patagonicus) foraging range at the Crozet Islands,southern Indian Ocean. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 279(1738), 2515-2523.

Perrette, M., A. Yool, G.D. Quartly, and E.E. Popova, 2011: Near-ubiquity of ice-edgeblooms in the Arctic. Biogeosciences, 8(2), 515-524.

Peters, G.P., T.B. Nilssen, L. Lindholdt, M.S. Eide, S. Glomsrød, L.I. Eide, and J.S.Fuglestvedt, 2011: Future emissions from shipping and petroleum activities inthe Arctic. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 5305-5320.

Peterson, B.J., R.M. Holmes, J.W. McClelland, C.J. Vörösmarty, R.B. Lammers, A.I.Shiklomanov, I.A. Shiklomanov, and S. Rahmstorf, 2002: Increasing riverdischarge to the Arctic Ocean. Science, 298(5601), 2171-2173.

Pohl, S., P. Marsh, and B. Bonsal, 2007: Modeling the impact of climate change onrunoff and annual water balance of an Arctic headwater basin. Arctic, 60(2),173-186.

Poloczanska, E.S., C.J. Brown, W.J. Sydeman, W. Kiessling, D. S. Schoeman, P.J. Moore,K. Brander, J.F. Bruno, L.B. Buckley, M.T. Burrows, C.M. Duarte, B.S. Halpern, J.Holding, C.V. Kappel, M.I. O’Connor, J.M. Pandolfi, C. Parmesan, F. Schwing, S.A.Thompson, and A.J. Richardson, 2013: Global imprint of climate change onmarine life. Nature Climate Change, 3, 919-925.

Poppel, B. and J. Kruse, 2009: The importance of a mixed cash- and harvest herdingbased economy to living the Arctic: an analysis on the Survey of Living Conditionsin the Arctic (SLiCA). In: Quality of Life in the New Milleium: Advances in theQuality-of-Life Studies, Theory and Research [Møller, V. and D. Huschka (eds.)].Social Indicators Research, Vol. 35, Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 27-42.

Portier, C.J., K. Thigpen Tart, S.R. Carter, C.H. Dilworth, A.E. Grambsch, J. Gohlke, J.Hess, S.N. Howard, G. Luber, J.T. Lutz, T. Maslak, N. Prudent, M. Radtke, J.P.Rosenthal, T. Rowles, P.A. Sandifer, J. Scheraga, P.J. Schramm, D. Strickman, J.M.Trtanj, and P.-Y. Whung, 2010: A Human Health Perspective on Climate Change:A Report Outlining the Research Needs on the Human Health Effects of ClimateChange. Prepared by the Interagency Working Group on Climate Change andHealth and published jointly by Environmental Health Perspectives and theNational Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS), Research TrianglePark, NC, USA, 71 pp.

Pörtner, H.-O. and M.A. Peck, 2010: Climate change effects on fishes and fisheries:towards a cause-and-effect understanding. Journal of Fish Biology, 77(8), 1745-1779.

Post, E. and M.C. Forchhammer, 2008: Climate change reduces reproductive successof an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch. Philosophical Transactions ofthe Royal Society B, 363(1501), 2369-2375.

Post, E., C. Pedersen, C.C. Wilmers, and M.C. Forchhammer, 2008: Warming, plantphenology and the spatial dimension of trophic mismatch for large herbivores.Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 275(1646), 2005-2013.

Post, E., J. Brodie, M. Hebblewhite, A.D. Anders, J.A.K. Maier, and C.C. Wilmers, 2009a:Global population dynamics and hot spots of response to climate change.BioScience, 59(6), 489-497.

Post, E., M.C. Forchhammer, M.S. Bret-Harte, T.V. Callaghan, T.R. Christensen, B.Elberling, A.D. Fox, O. Gilg, D.S. Hik, T.T. Høye, R.A. Ims, E. Jeppesen, D.R. Klein,J. Madsen, A.D. McGuire, S. Rysgaard, D.E. Schindler, I. Stirling, M.P. Tamstorf,N.J.C. Tyler, R. van der Wal, J. Welker, P.A. Wookey, N.M. Schmidt, and P. Aastrup,2009b: Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climatechange. Science, 325(5946), 1355-1358.

Pouliot, J., P.E. Galand, C. Lovejoy, and W.F. Vincent, 2009: Vertical structure ofarchaeal communities and the distribution of ammonia monooxygenase A genevariants in two meromictic High Arctic lakes. Environmental Microbiology,11(3), 687-699.

Prach, K., J. Košnar, J. Klimešová, and M. Hais, 2010: High Arctic vegetation after 70years: a repeated analysis from Svalbard. Polar Biology, 33(5), 635-639.

Prowse, T.D. and K. Brown, 2010a: Appearing and disappearing lakes in the Arctic andtheir impacts on biodiversity. In: Arctic Biodiversity Trends 2010: Selected Indicatorsof Change [Kurvits, T., B. Alfthan, and E. Mork (eds.)]. Conservation of Arctic Floraand Fauna (CAFF) International Secretariat, Akureyri, Iceland, pp. 68-70.

Page 42: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1608

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Prowse, T.D. and K. Brown, 2010b: Hydro-ecological effects of changing Arctic riverand lake ice covers: a review. Hydrology Research, 41(6), 454-461.

Prowse, T.D., B.R. Bonsal, C.R. Duguay, D.O. Hessen, and V.S. Vuglinsky, 2007: Riverand lake ice. In: Global Outlook for Ice and Snow. Division of Early Warningand Assessment (DEWA), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) andUNEP/Global Resource Information Database (GRID-Arendal), UNEP, Nairobi,Kenya, pp. 201-214.

Prowse, T.D., C. Furgal, R. Chouinard, H. Melling, D. Milburn, and S.L. Smith, 2009:Implications of climate change for economic development in northern Canada:energy, resource, and transportation sectors. AMBIO: A Journal of the HumanEnvironment, 38(5), 272-281.

Prowse, T., K. Alfredsen, S. Beltaos, B. Bonsal, C. Duguay, A. Korhola, J. McNamara,W. Vincent, V. Vuglinsky, G. Weyhenmeyer, K. Walter Anthony, B. Bowden, V.Buzin, Y. Dibike, N. Gantner, L. Hinzman, L. Lia, T. Ouarda, R. Pientiz, J.D. Reist,M. Stickler, J. Weckström, and F. Wrona, 2011. Chapter 6: Changing lake andriver ice regimes: trends, effects, and implications. In: Snow, Water, Ice, andPermafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere. ScientificAssessment of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP), Oslo,Norway, pp. 6-1 to 6-52.

Quayle, W.C., P. Convey, L.S. Peck, C.J. Ellis-Evans, H.G. Butler, and H.J. Peat, 2013:Ecological responses of maritime Antarctic lakes to regional climate change.In: Antarctic Peninsula Climate Variability: Historical and PaleoenvironmentalPerspectives [Domack, E., A. Leventer, A. Burnett, R. Bindschadler, P. Convey,and M. Kirby (eds.)]. Antarctic Research Series 79, American GeophysicalUnion, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 159-170.

Quesada, A. and D. Velázquez, 2012: Global change effects on Antarctic freshwaterecosystems: the case of maritime Antarctic lakes. In: Climatic Change andGlobal Warming of Inland Waters: Impacts and Mitigation for Ecosystems andSocieties [Kumagai, M., C.R. Goldman, and R.D. Robarts (eds.)]. John Wiley &Sons, Chichester, UK, pp. 367-382.

Quesada, A., W.F. Vincent, E. Kaup, J.E. Hobbie, I. Laurion, R. Pienitz, J. López-Martínez,and J.J. Durán, 2006: Landscape control of high latitude lakes in a changingclimate. In: Trends in Antarctic Terrestrial and Limnetic Ecosystems. Antarcticaas a Global Indicator [Bergstrom, D.M., P. Convey, and A.H.L. Huiskes (eds.)].Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 221-252.

Ragen, T.J., H.P. Huntington, and G.K. Hovelsrud, 2008: Conservation of Arctic marinemammals faced with climate change. Ecological Applications, 18(2 Suppl.),S166-S174.

Rawlins, M.A., H. Ye, D. Yang, A. Shiklomanov, and K.C. McDonald, 2009a: Divergencein seasonal hydrology across northern Eurasia: emerging trends and water cyclelinkages. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114(D18), D18119,doi:10.1029/2009JD011747.

Rawlins, M.A., M.C. Serreze, R. Schroeder, X. Zhang, and K.C. McDonald, 2009b:Diagnosis of the record discharge of Arctic-draining Eurasian rivers in 2007.Environmental Research Letters, 4(4), 045011, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045011.

Regehr, E.V., N.J. Lunn, S.C. Amstrup, and I. Stirling, 2007: Effects of earlier sea icebreakup on survival and population size of polar bears in western Hudson Bay.Journal of Wildlife Management, 71(8), 2673-2683.

Regehr, E.V., C.M. Hunter, H. Caswell, S.C. Amstrup, and I. Stirling, 2010: Survival andbreeding of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea in relation to sea ice. TheJournal of Animal Ecology, 79(1), 117-127.

Regular, P.M., G.J. Robertson, W.A. Montevecchi, F. Shuhood, T. Power, D. Ballam, andJ.F. Piatt, 2010: Relative importance of human activities and climate drivingcommon murre population trends in the Northwest Atlantic. Polar Biology,33(9), 1215-1226.

Reinert, E.S., I. Aslaksen, I.M.G. Eira, S.D. Mathiesen, H. Reindert, and E.I. Turi, 2009:Adapting to climate change in Sámi reindeer herding: the nation-state asproblem and solution. In: Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values,Governance [Adger, W.N., I. Lorenzoni, and K.L. O’Brien (eds.)]. CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 417-432.

Reinert, H., S. Mathiesen, and E. Reinert, 2010: Climate change and pastoralflexibility: a Norwegian Saami case. In: The Political Economy of NorthernRegional Development – Yearbook 2008 [Winther, G. (ed.)]. TemaNord2010:521, Nordic Coucil of Ministers, Copenhagen, Denmark, pp. 189-204.

Reist, J.D., F.J. Wrona, T.D. Prowse, J.B. Dempson, M. Power, G. Kock, T.J. Carmichael,C.D. Sawatzky, H. Lehtonen, and R.F. Tallman, 2006: Effects of climate changeand UV radiation on fisheries for Arctic freshwater and anadromous species.AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 35(7), 402-410.

Rennermalm, A., E. Wood, and T. Troy, 2010: Observed changes in pan-arctic cold-season minimum monthly river discharge. Climate Dynamics, 35(6), 923-939.

Revich, B., 2008: Climate change alters human health in Russia. Studies in RussianEconomic Development, 19(3), 311-317.

Revich, B. and M. Podolnaya, 2011: Thawing of permafrost may disturb historic cattleburial grounds in East Siberia. Global Health Action, 4, 8482, doi:10.3402/gha.v4i0.8482.

Revich, B.A. and D.A. Shaposhnikov, 2010: Extreme temperature episodes andmortality in Yakutsk, East Siberia. Rural and Remote Health, 10(2), 1338,www.rrh.org.au/articles/subviewnew.asp?ArticleID=1338.

Revich, B.A. and D.A. Shaposhnikov, 2012: Climate change, heat waves, and coldspells as risk factors for increased mortality in some regions of Russia. Studieson Russian Economic Development, 23(2), 195-207.

Revich, B., N. Tokarevich, and A.J. Parkinson, 2012: Climate change and zoonoticinfections in the Russian Arctic. International Journal of Circumpolar Health,71, 18792, doi:10.3402/ijch.v71i0.18792.

Rice, J.C. and S.M. Garcia, 2011: Fisheries, food security, climate change, andbiodiversity: characteristics of the sector and perspectives on emerging issues.International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Journal of MarineScience, 68(6), 1343-1353.

Roberts, D., W.R. Howard, A.D. Moy, J.L. Roberts, T.W. Trull, S.G. Bray, and R.R.Hopcroft, 2011: Interannual pteropod variability in sediment traps deployedabove and below the aragonite saturation horizon in the sub-Antarctic SouthernOcean. Polar Biology 34(11), 1739-1750.

Robertson, C., T.A. Nelson, D.E. Jelinski, M.A. Wulder, and B. Boots, 2009: Spatial-temporal analysis of species range expansion: the case of the mountain pinebeetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae. Journal of Biogeography, 36(8), 1446-1458.

Robinson, R., T. Smith, B.J. Kirschhoffer, and C. Rosa, 2011: Polar bear (Ursus maritimus)cub mortality at a den site in northern Alaska. Polar Biology, 34(1), 139-142.

Rockwell, R.F. and L.J. Gormezano, 2009: The early bear gets the goose: climatechange, polar bears and lesser snow geese in western Hudson Bay. PolarBiology, 32(4), 539-547.

Rode, K.D., S.C. Amstrup, and E.V. Regehr, 2010a: Reduced body size and cubrecruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline. EcologicalApplications, 20(3), 768-782.

Rode, K.D., J.D. Reist, E. Peacock, and I. Stirling, 2010b: Comments in response to“Estimating the energetic contribution of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) summerdiets to the total energy budget” by Dyck and Kebreab (2009). Journal ofMammalogy, 91(6), 1517-1523.

Rode, K.D., E. Peacock, M. Taylor, I. Stirling, E. Born, K. Laidre, and Ø. Wiig, 2012: Atale of two polar bear populations: ice habitat, harvest, and body condition.Population Ecology, 54(1), 3-18.

Rogers, A., N. Johnston, E. Murphy, and A. Clarke (eds.), 2012: Antarctic Ecosystems:An Extreme Environment in a Changing World. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.,Chichester, UK, 583 pp.

Roturier, S. and M. Roué, 2009: Of forest, snow and lichen: Sámi reindeer herders’knowledge of winter pastures in northern Sweden. Forest Ecology andManagement, 258(9), 1960-1967.

Royles, J., M.J. Amesbury, P. Convey, H. Griffiths, D.A. Hodgson, M.J. Leng, and D.J.Charman, 2013: Plants and soil microbes respond to recent warming on theAntarctic Peninsula. Current Biology, 23(17), 1702-1706.

Rudberg, P.M., O. Wallgren, and A.G. Swartling, 2012: Beyond generic adaptivecapacity: exploring the adaptation space of the water supply and wastewatersector of the Stockholm region, Sweden. Climatic Change, 114(3-4), 707-721.

Rundqvist, S., H. Hedenås, A. Sandström, U. Emanuelsson, H. Eriksson, C. Jonasson,and T.V. Callaghan, 2011: Tree and shrub expansion over the past 34 years atthe tree-line near Abisko, Sweden. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment,40(6), 683-692.

Russell, D. and A. Gunn, 2010: Reindeer herding. In: Arctic Biodiversity Trends 2010:Selected Indicators of Change [Kurvits, T., B. Alfthan, and E. Mork (eds.)].Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF) International Secretariat,Akureyri, Iceland, pp. 86-88.

Rybråten, S. and G. Hovelsrud, 2010: Local effects of global climate change:differential experiences of sheep farmers and reindeer herders in Unjárga/Nesseby, a coastal Sámi community in northern Norway. In: CommunityAdaptation and Vulnerability in Arctic Regions [Hovelsrud, G.K. and B. Smit(eds.)]. Springer, Dordrecht, Netherlands, pp. 313-333.

Page 43: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1609

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

Rylander, R. and R.S.F. Schilling, 2011: Diseases caused by organic dusts. In: 10:Respiratory System [David, A. and G.R. Wagner (eds.)]. In: Encyclopedia ofOccupational Health and Safety [Stellman, J.M. (Editor-in-Chief)]. InternationalLabor Organization (ILO), Geneva, Switzerland, 7 pp.

Saba, G.K., O. Schofield, J.J. Torres, E.H. Ombres, and D.K. Steinberg, 2012: Increasedfeeding and nutrient excretion of adult Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba,exposed to enhanced carbon dioxide (CO2). PLoS ONE, 7(12), e52224,doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052224.

Sahanatien, V. and A.E. Derocher, 2012: Monitoring sea ice habitat fragmentationfor polar bear conservation. Animal Conservation, 15(4), 397-406.

Salick, J. and N. Ross, 2009: Traditional peoples and climate change. GlobalEnvironmental Change, 19(2), 137-139.

Salonen, J.S., H. Seppä, M. Väliranta, V.J. Jones, A. Self, M. Heikkilä, S. Kultti, and H.Yang, 2011: The Holocene thermal maximum and late-Holocene cooling in thetundra of NE European Russia. Quaternary Research, 75(3), 501-511.

Schliebe, S., K.D. Rode, J.S. Gleason, J. Wilder, K. Proffitt, T.J. Evans, and S. Miller, 2008:Effects of sea ice extent and food availability on spatial and temporal distributionof polar bears during the fall open-water period in the southern Beaufort Sea.Polar Biology, 31(8), 999-1010.

Schmidt, K., A. Atkinson, S. Steigenberger, S. Fielding, M. Lindsay, D. Pond, G. Tarling,T. Klevjer, C. Allen, S. Nicol, and E. Achterberg, 2011: Seabed foraging by Antarctickrill: implications for stock assessment, bentho-pelagic coupling, and thevertical transfer of iron. Limnology and Oceanography, 56(4), 1411-1428.

Schneider, P. and S.J. Hook, 2010: Space observations of inland water bodies showrapid surface warming since 1985. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(22),L22405, doi:10.1029/2010GL045059.

Shaposhnikov, D., B. Revich, V. Meleshko, V. Govorkova, and T. Pavlova, 2010: Climatechange may reduce annual temperature-dependent mortality in Subarctic: acase study of Archangelsk, Russian Federation. Environment and NaturalResources Research, 1(1), 75-91.

Shearer, C., 2011: Kivalina: A Climate Change Story. Haymarket Books, Chicago, IL,USA, 240 pp.

Shearer, C., 2012: The political ecology of climate adaptation assistance: AlaskaNatives, displacement, and relocation. Journal of Political Ecology, 19, 174-183.

Sherman, K., I.M. Belkin, K.D. Friedland, J. O’Reilly, and K. Hyde, 2009: Acceleratedwarming and emergent trends in fisheries biomass yields of the world’s largemarine ecosystems. AMBIO: Journal of the Human Environment, 38(4), 215-224.

Shiklomanov, A.I., R.B. Lammers, M.A. Rawlins, L.C. Smith, and T.M. Pavelsky, 2007:Temporal and spatial variations in maximum river discharge from a newRussian data set. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 112(G4),G04S53, doi:10.1029/2006JG000352.

Shiyatov, S.G., M.M. Terent’ev, V.V. Fomin, and N.E. Zimmermann, 2007: Altitudinaland horizontal shifts of the upper boundaries of open and closed forests in thePolar Urals in the 20th century. Russian Journal of Ecology, 38(4), 223-227.

Shreeve, R.S., M.A. Collins, G.A. Tarling, C.E. Main, P. Ward, and N.M. Johnston, 2009:Feeding ecology of myctophid fishes in the northern Scotia Sea. Marine EcologyProgress Series, 386, 221-236.

Sigler, M.F., M. Renner, S.L. Danielson, L.B. Eisner, R.R. Lauth, K.J. Kuletz, E.A.Logerwell, and G.L. Hunt Jr., 2011: Fluxes, fins, and feathers: relationshipsamong the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas in a time of climate change.Oceanography, 24(3), 250-265.

Sigurdsson, B.D., A. Snorrason, B.T. Kjartansson, and J.A. Jonsson, 2007: Total areaof planted forests in Iceland and their carbon stocks and fluxes. In: Effects ofAfforestation on Ecosystems, Landscape and Rural Development [Halldórsson,G., E.S. Oddsdóttir, and O. Eggertsson (eds.)]. TemaNord 2007:508, Proceedingsof the AFFORNORD Conference, Reykholt, Iceland, June 18-22, 2005, NordicCouncil of Ministers, Copenhagen, Denmark, pp. 211-217.

Simpson, S., S. Jennings, M. Johnson, J. Blanchard, P.-J. Schön, D. Sims, and M. Genner,2011: Continental shelf-wide response of a fish assemblage to rapid warmingof the sea. Current Biology, 21(18), 1565-1570.

Siniff, D.B., R.A. Garrott, J.J. Rotella, W.R. Fraser, and D.G. Ainley, 2008: Opinion:projecting the effects of environmental change on Antarctic seals. AntarcticScience, 20(5), 425-435.

Slagstad, D., I.H. Ellingsen, and P. Wassmann, 2011: Evaluating primary and secondaryproduction in an Arctic Ocean void of summer sea ice: an experimentalsimulation approach. Progress in Oceanography, 90(1-4), 117-131.

Slater, G.J., B. Figueirido, L. Louis, P. Yang, and B. van Valkenburgh, 2010: Biomechanicalconsequences of rapid evolution in the polar bear lineage. PLoS ONE, 5(11),e13870, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0013870.

Smith, J.A., D.A. Hodgson, M.J. Bentley, E. Verleyen, M.J. Leng, and S.J. Roberts, 2006:Limnology of two Antarctic epishelf lakes and their potential to record periodsof ice shelf loss. Journal of Paleolimnology, 35(2), 373-394.

Smith, L.C., T.M. Pavelsky, G.M. MacDonald, A.I. Shiklomanov, and R.B. Lammers, 2007:Rising minimum daily flows in northern Eurasian rivers: a growing influence ofgroundwater in the high-latitude hydrologic cycle. Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Biogeosciences, 112(G4), G04S47, doi:10.1029/2006JG000327.

Smith, P.A., K.H. Elliott, A.J. Gaston, and H.G. Gilchrist, 2010: Has early ice clearanceincreased predation on breeding birds by polar bears? Polar Biology, 33(8),1149-1153.

Smith, S.L. and D.W. Riseborough, 2010: Modelling the thermal response of permafrostterrain to right-of-way disturbance and climate warming. Cold Regions Scienceand Technology, 60(1), 92-103.

Smith Jr., W., D. Ainley, R. Cattaneo-Vietti, and E. Hofmann, 2012: The Ross Seacontinental shelf: regional biogeochemical cycles, trophic interactions, andpotential future changes. In: Antarctic Ecosystems: An Extreme Environment ina Changing World [Rogers, A., N. Johnston, E. Murphy, and A. Clarke (eds.)].Blackwell Publishing, London, UK, pp. 213-242.

Smol, J.P. and M.S.V. Douglas, 2007a: Crossing the final ecological threshold in HighArctic ponds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the UnitedStates of America, 104(30), 12395-12397.

Smol, J.P. and M.S.V. Douglas, 2007b: From controversy to consensus: making thecase for recent climate change in the Arctic using lake sediments. Frontiers inEcology and the Environment, 5(9), 466-474.

Søreide, J.E., E. Leu, J. Berge, M. Graeve, and S. Falk-Petersen, 2010: Timing of blooms,algal food quality and Calanus glacialis reproduction and growth in a changingArctic. Global Change Biology, 16(11), 3154-3163.

St. Jacques, J. and D.J. Sauchyn, 2009: Increasing winter baseflow and mean annualstreamflow from possible permafrost thawing in the Northwest Territories, Canada.Geophysical Research Letters, 36(1), L01401, doi:10.1029/2008GL035822.

Stabeno, P.J., N.B. Kachel, S.E. Moore, J.M. Napp, M. Sigler, A. Yamaguchi, and A.N.Zerbini, 2012a: Comparison of warm and cold years on the southeastern BeringSea shelf and some implications for the ecosystem. Deep-Sea Research Part II:Topical Studies in Oceanography, 65-70, 31-45.

Stabeno, P.J., E.V. Farley Jr., N.B. Kachel, S. Moore, C.W. Mordy, J.M. Napp, J.E.Overland, A.I. Pinchuk, and M.F. Sigler, 2012b: Comparison of the physics ofthe northern and southern shelves of the eastern Bering Sea and someimplications for the ecosystem. Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies inOceanography, 65-70, 14-30.

Stammler, F., 2005: Reindeer Nomads Meet the Market: Culture, Property andGlobalisation at the End of the Land. LIT Verlag, Berlin, Germany and TransactionPublishers, Piscataway, NJ, USA, 379 pp.

Stephenson, S.R., L.C. Smith, and J.A. Agnew, 2011: Divergent long-term trajectoriesof human access to the Arctic. Nature Climate Change, 1(3), 156-160.

Stewart, E.J., S.E.L. Howell, D. Draper, J. Yackel, and A. Tivy, 2007: Sea ice in Canada’sArctic: implications for cruise tourism. Artic, 60(4), 370-380.

Stewart, E.J., S.E.L. Howell, J.D. Dawson, A. Tivy, and D. Draper, 2010: Cruise tourismand sea ice in Canada’s Hudson Bay region. Artic, 63, 57-66. 

Stien, A., L.E. Loel, A. Mysterud, T. Severinsen, J. Kohler, and R. Langvatn, 2010: Icingevents trigger range displacement in a high-arctic ungulate. Ecology, 91(3),915-920.

Stien, A., R.A. Ims, S.D. Albon, E. Fuglei, R.J. Irvine, E. Ropstad, O. Halvorsen, R. Langvatn,L.E. Loe, V. Veiberg, and N.G. Yoccoz, 2012: Congruent responses to weathervariability in high Arctic herbivores. Biology Letters, 8(6), 1002-1005.

Stirling, I. and C.L. Parkinson, 2006: Possible effects of climate warming on selectedpopulations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic,59(3), 261-275.

Stirling, I., E. Richardson, G.W. Thiemann, and A.E. Derocher, 2008a: Unusual predationattempts of polar bears on ringed seals in the southern Beaufort Sea: possiblesignificance of changing spring ice conditions. Arctic, 61(1), 14-22.

Stirling, I., A.E. Derocher, W.A. Gough, and K. Rode, 2008b: Response to Dyck et al.(2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay. EcologicalComplexity, 5(3), 193-201.

Stirling, I., T.L. McDonald, E.S. Richardson, E.V. Regehr, and S.C. Amstrup, 2011: Polarbear population status in the northern Beaufort Sea, Canada, 1971-2006.Ecological Applications, 21(3), 859-876.

Stram, D.L. and D.C.K. Evans, 2009: Fishery management responses to climate changein the North Pacific. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)Journal of Marine Science, 66(7), 1633-1639.

Page 44: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1610

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Stroeve, J., M.M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze, 2007: Arctic sea icedecline: faster than forecast. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(9), L09501,doi:10.1029/2007GL029703.

Sundby, S. and O. Nakken, 2008: Spatial shifts in spawning habitats of Arcto-Norwegian cod related to multidecadal climate oscillations and climate change.International Journal for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Journal of MarineScience, 65(6), 953-962.

Swann, A.L., I.Y. Fung, S. Levis, G. Bonan, and S. Doney, 2010: Changes in Arcticvegetation induce high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States ofAmerica, 107(4), 1295-1300.

Sydneysmith, R., M. Andrachuk, B. Smit, and G.K. Hovelsrud, 2010: Vulnerability andadaptive capacity in Arctic communities. In: Adaptive Capacity and EnvironmentalGovernance [Armitage, D. and R. Plummer (eds.)]. Springer, Berlin, Germany, pp.133-156.

Tan, A., J.C. Adam, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2011: Change in spring snowmelt timing inEurasian Arctic rivers. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 116(D3),D03101, doi:10.1029/2010JD014337.

Tanabe, Y., S. Kudoh, S. Imura, and M. Fukuchi, 2007: Phytoplankton blooms underdim and cold conditions in freshwater lakes of East Antarctica. Polar Biology,31(2), 199-208.

Tchebakova, N.M., G.E. Rehfeldt, and E.I. Parfenova, 2009: From vegetation zonesto climatypes: effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems. In: PermafrostEcosystems: Siberian Larch Forest [Osawa, A., O.A. Zyryanova, Y. Matsuura, T.Kajimoto, and R.W. Wein (eds.)] Ecological Studies, Vol. 109, Springer, Dordrecht,Netherlands, pp. 427-446.

Teng, Y., Z. Xu, Y. Luo, and F. Reverchon, 2012: How do persistent organic pollutantsbe coupled with biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients in terrestrialecosystems under global climate change? Journal of Soils and Sediments,12(3), 411-419.

Teran, T., L. Lamon, and A. Marcomini, 2012: Climate change effects on POPs’environmental behavior: a scientific perspective for future regulatory actions.Atmospheric Pollution Research, 3(4), 466-476.

Terauds, A., S.L. Chown, F. Morgan, H. J. Peat, D.J. Watts, H. Keys, P. Convey, and D.M.Bergstrom, 2012: Conservation biogeography of the Antarctic. Diversity andDistributions, 18(7), 726-741.

Thiemann, G.W., S.J. Iverson, and I. Stirling, 2008: Polar bear diets and arctic marinefood webs: insights from fatty acid analysis. Ecological Monographs, 78(4),591-613.

Tholstrup, L. and R.O. Rasmussen (eds.), 2009: Climate Change and the NorthAtlantic. Nordic Atlantic Cooperation (NORA), Tórshavn, Faroe Islands, 130 pp.

Thompson, M., F. Wrona, and T. Prowse, 2012: Shifts in plankton, nutrient and lightrelationships in small tundra lakes caused by localized permafrost thaw. Arctic,65(4), 367-376.

Thompson, M.S., S.V. Kokelj, T.D. Prowse, and F.J. Wrona, 2008: The impact ofsediments derived from thawing permafrost on tundra lake water chemistry:an experimental approach. In: Proceedings of the Ninth International Conferenceon Permafrost [D.L. Kane and K.M. Hinkel (eds.)]. Institute of Northern Engineering,University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK, USA, pp. 1763-1768.

Thrush, S.F. and V.J. Cummings, 2011: Massive icebergs, alteration in primary foodresources and change in benthic communities at Cape Evans, Antarctica. MarineEcology: An Evolutionary Perspective, 32(3), 289-299.

Tokarevich, N., A. Tronin, O. Blinova, R. Buzinov, V. Boltenkov, E. Yurasova, and J.Nurse, 2011: The impact of climate change on the expansion of Ixodespersulcatus habitat and the incidence of tickborne encephalitis in the northof European Russia. Global Health Action, 4, 8448, doi:10.3402/gha.v4i0.8448.

Tømmervik, H., B. Johansen, J.A. Riseth, S.R. Karlsen, B. Solberg, and K.A. Høgda,2009: Above ground biomass changes in the mountain birch forests andmountain heaths of Finnmarksvidda, northern Norway, in the period 1957-2006. Forest Ecology and Management, 257(1), 244-257.

Tømmervik, H., J.W. Bjerke, E. Gaare, B. Johansen, and D. Thannheiser, 2012: Rapidrecovery of recently overexploited winter grazing pastures for reindeer in northernNorway. Fungal Ecology, 5(1), 3-15.

Towns, L., A.E. Derocher, I. Stirling, and N.J. Lunn, 2010: Changes in land distributionof polar bears in western Hudson Bay. Arctic, 63(2), 206-212.

Towns, L., A.E. Derocher, I. Stirling, N.J. Lunn, and D. Hedman, 2009: Spatial andtemporal patterns of problem polar bears in Churchill, Manitoba. Polar Biology,32(10), 1529-1537.

Trathan, P.N. and D. Agnew, 2010: Climate change and the Antarctic marineecosystem: an essay on management implications. Antarctic Science, 22(4),387-398.

Trathan, P.N. and K. Reid, 2009: Exploitation of the marine ecosystem in the sub-Antarctic: historical impacts and current consequences. Papers and Proceedingof the Royal Society of Tasmania, 143(1), 9-14.

Trathan, P.N., J. Forcada, and E.J. Murphy, 2007: Environmental forcing and SouthernOcean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 362(1488), 2351-2365.

Trathan, P., P. Fretwell, and B. Stonehouse, 2011: First recorded loss of an emperorpenguin colony in the recent period of Antarctic regional warming: implicationsfor other colonies. PLoS ONE, 6(2), e14738, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0014738.

Trathan, P.N., J. Forcada, and E.J. Murphy, 2012: Environmental forcing and SouthernOcean marine predator populations. In: Antarctic Ecosystems: An ExtremeEnvironment in a Changing World [Rogers, A., N. Johnston, E. Murphy, and A.Clarke (eds.)]. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, UK, pp. 335-354.

Tremblay, J., D. Robert, D.E. Varela, C. Lovejoy, G. Darnis, R.J. Nelson, and A.R. Sastri,2012: Current state and trends in Canadian Arctic marine ecosystems: I. Primaryproduction. Climatic Change, 115(1), 161-178.

Trivelpiece, W.Z., J.T. Hinke, A.K. Miller, C.S. Reiss, S.G. Trivelpiece, and G.M. Watters,2011: Variability in krill biomass links harvesting and climate warming topenguin population changes in Antarctica. Proceedings of the NationalAcademy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(18), 7625-7628.

Turner, J., R.A. Bindschadler, P. Convey, G. Di Prisco, E. Fahrbach, J. Gutt, D.A. Hodgson,P.A. Mayewski, and C.P. Summerhayes (eds.), 2009: Antarctic Climate Changeand the Environment. Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR),Cambridge, UK, 526 pp.

Turner, J.A., N.E. Barrand, T.J. Bracegirdle, P. Convey, D.A. Hodgson, M. Jarvis, A. Jenkins,G. Marshall, M.P. Meredith, H. Roscos, J. Shanklin, J. French, H. Goosse, M.Guglielmin, J. Gutt, S. Jacobs, M.C. Kennicutt II, V. Masson-Delmotte, P.Mayewski, F. Navarro, S. Robinson, T. Scambos, M. Sparrow, C. Summerhayes,K. Speer, and A. Klepnikov, 2013: Antarctic climate change and the environment:an update. Polar Record (in press), doi:10.1017/S0032247413000296.

Turunen, M., P. Soppela, H. Kinnunen, M.-L. Sutinen, and F. Martz, 2009: Does climatechange influence the availability and quality of reindeer forage plants? PolarBiology, 32(6), 813-832.

Tyler, N.J.C., 2010: Climate, snow, ice, crashes, and declines in populations of reindeerand caribou (Rangifer tarandus L.). Ecological Monographs, 80(2), 197-219.

Tyler, N.J.C., J.M. Turi, M.A. Sundset, K. Strøm Bull, M.N. Sara, E. Reinert, N. Oskal, C.Nellemann, J.J. McCarthy, S.D. Mathiesen, M.L. Martello, O.H. Magga, G.K.Hovelsrud, I. Hanssen-Bauer, N.I. Eira, I.M.G. Eira, and R.W. Corell, 2007: Saamireindeer pastoralism under climate change: applying a generalized frameworkfor vulnerability studies to a sub-Arctic social-ecological system. GlobalEnvironmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions, 17(2), 191-206.

Tyler, N.J.C., M.C. Forchhammer, and N.A. Øritsland, 2008: Nonlinear effects ofclimate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer.Ecology, 89(6), 1675-1686.

UNEP and AMAP, 2011: Climate Change and POPs: Predicting the Impacts. Reportof the United Nations Environment Programne (UNEP) and Arctic Monitoringand Assessment Programme (AMAP) Expert Group, Secretariat of the StockholmConvention, Geneva, Switzerland, 62 pp.

USARC, 2010: Report on Goals and Objectives for Arctic Research 2009-2010. UnitedStates Arctic Research Commission (USARC), Arlington, VA, USA, 52 pp.

Valdimarsson, H., O.S. Astthorsson, and J. Palsson, 2012: Hydrographic variability inIcelandic waters during recent decades and related changes in distribution ofsome fish species. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)Journal of Marine Science, 69(5), 815-825.

Valdivia, C., A. Seth, J.L. Gilles, M. García, E. Jiménez, J. Cusicanqui, F. Navia, and E.Yucra, 2010: Adapting to climate change in Andean ecosystems: landscapes,capitals, perceptions shaping rural livelihood strategies and linking knowledgesystems. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 100(4), 818-834.

Van Bogaert, R., C. Jonasson, M. De Dapper, and T.V. Callaghan, 2010: Rangeexpansion of thermophilic aspen (Populus tremula L.) in the Swedish subarctic.Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 42(3), 362-375.

Van Bogaert, R., K. Haneca, J. Hoogesteger, C. Jonasson, M. De Dapper, and T.V.Callaghan, 2011: A century of tree line changes in sub-Arctic Sweden showslocal and regional variability and only a minor influence of 20th century climatewarming. Journal of Biogeography, 38(5), 907-921.

Page 45: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1611

Polar Regions Chapter 28

28

van Der Wal, R., S. Sjögersten, S.J. Woodin, E.J. Cooper, I.S. Jónsdóttir, D. Kuijper, T.A.D.Fox, and A.D. Huiskes, 2007: Spring feeding by pink-footed geese reducescarbon stocks and sink strength in tundra ecosystems. Global Change Biology,13(2), 539-545.

Veillette, J., D.R. Mueller, D. Antoniades, and W.F. Vincent, 2008: Arctic epishelf lakesas sentinel ecosystems: past, present and future. Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Biogeosciences, 113(G4), G04014, doi:10.1029/2008JG000730.

Velázquez, D., A. Frias, M.A. Lezcano, and A. Quesada, 2013: Ecological relationshipsand stoichiometry within a maritime Antarctic watershed. Antarctic Science,25(2), 191-197.

Verbyla, D., 2008: The greening and browning of Alaska based on 1982-2003 satellitedata. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 17(4), 547-555.

Vert-pre, K.A., R.O. Amoroso, O.P. Jensen, and R. Hilborn, 2013: Frequency and intensityof productivity regime shifts in marine stocks. Proceedings of the NationalAcademy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(5), 1779-1784.

Vieira, G., J. Bockheim, M. Guglielmin, M. Balks, A.A. Abramov, J. Boelhouwers, N.Cannone, L. Ganzert, D.A. Gilichinsky, S. Goryachkin, J. López-Martínez, I.Meiklejohn, R. Raffi, M. Ramos, C. Schaefer, E. Serrano, F. Simas, R. Sletten, andD. Wagner, 2010: Thermal state of permafrost and active-layer monitoring inthe Antarctic: advances during the International Polar Year 2007-09. Permafrostand Periglacial Processes, 21(2), 182-197.

Vikebø, F.B., Å. Huseø, A. Slotte, E.K. Stenevik, and V.S. Lien, 2010: Effect of hatchingdate, vertical distribution and interannual variation in physical forcing onnorthward displacement and temperature conditions of Norwegian spring-spawning herring larvae. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea(ICES) Journal of Marine Science, 67(9), 1948-1956.

Vikhamar-Schuler, D., I. Hanssen-Bauer, T.V. Schuler, S.D. Mathiesen, and M. Lehning,2013: Use of a multilayer snow model to assess grazing conditions for reindeer.Annals of Glaciology, 54(62), 214-226.

Vincent, W., J. Hobbie, J. Laybourn-Parry, 2008: Introduction to the limnology of high-latitude lake and river ecosystems. In: Polar Lakes and Rivers: Limnology ofArctic and Antarctic Aquatic Ecosystems [Vincent, W.F. and J. Laybourn-Parry(eds.)]. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, pp. 1-18.

Vincent, W.F., L.G. Whyte, C. Lovejoy, C.W. Greer, I. Laurion, C.A. Suttle, J. Corbeil,and D.R. Mueller, 2009: Arctic microbial ecosystems and impacts of extremewarming during the International Polar Year. Polar Science, 3(3), 171-180.

Virginia, R.S. and K.S. Yalowitz (eds.), 2012: A New Paradigm for Arctic Health:Challenges and Responses to Rapid Climate, Environmental, and Social Change.Report on the International Workshop, “Arctic Health: Challenges andResponses to Rapid Climate, Environmental, and Social Change,” May 23-24,2011, Organized by the Dickey Center for International Understanding,Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH and the University of the Arctic Institute forApplied Circumpolar Policy, Dickey Center Institute of Arctic Studies Policy PaperNo. 2, Darmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA, 17 pp., http://iacp.dartmouth.edu/images/stories/2012_Health_Report.pdf.

Voggesser, G., K. Lynn, J. Daigle, F. Lake, and D. Ranco, 2013: Cultural impacts to tribesfrom climate change influences on forests. Climatic Change, 12(3), 615-626.

von Biela, V.R., C.E. Zimmerman, and L.L. Moulton, 2011: Long-term increases in young-of-the-year growth of Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis and environmentalinfluences. Journal Fish Biology, 78(1), 39-56.

Vors, L.S. and M.S. Boyce, 2009: Global declines of caribou and reindeer. GlobalChange Biology, 15(11), 2626-2633.

Vuojala-Magga, T., M. Turunen, T. Ryyppö, and M. Tennberg, 2011: Resonance strategiesof Sámi reindeer herders in northernmost Finland during climatically extremeyears. Arctic, 64(2), 227-241.

Vyverman, W., E. Verleyen, A. Wilmotte, D.A. Hodgson, A. Willems, K. Peeters, B. Vande Vijver, A. De Wever, F. Leliaert, and K. Sabbe, 2010: Evidence for widespreadendemism among Antarctic micro-organisms. Polar Science, 4(2), 103-113.

Walker, D.A., M.O. Leibman, H.E. Epstein, B.C. Forbes, U.S. Bhatt, M.K. Raynolds, J.C.Comiso, A.A. Gubarkov, A.V. Khomutov, G.J. Jia, E. Kaarlejärvi, J.O. Kaplan, T.Kumpula, P. Kuss, G. Matyshak, N.G. Moskalenko, P. Orekhov, V.E. Romanovsky,N.G. Ukraientseva, and Q. Yu, 2009: Spatial and temporal patterns of greennesson the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: interactions of ecological and social factorsaffecting the Arctic normalized difference vegetation index. EnvironmentalResearch Letters, 4(4), 045004, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045004.

Walker, D.A., P. Kuss, H.E. Epstein, A.N. Kade, C.M. Vonlanthen, M.K. Raynolds, andF.J. Daniëls, 2011: Vegetation of zonal patterned-ground ecosystems along theNorth America Arctic bioclimate gradient. Applied Vegetation Science, 14(4),440-463.

Walsh, J.J., D.A. Dieterle, F.R.Chen, J.M. Lenes, W. Maslowski, J.J. Cassano, T.E. Whitledge,D. Stockwell, M. Flint, R.N. Sukhanova, and J. Christensen, 2011: Trophic cascadesand future harmful algal blooms within ice-free Arctic seas north of Bering Strait:a simulation analysis. Progress in Oceanography, 91(3), 312-343.

Walter, K.M., L.C. Smith, and F.S. Chapin III, 2007a: Methane bubbling from northernlakes: present and future contributions to the global methane budget.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 365(1856), 1657-1676.

Walter, K.M., M.E. Edwards, G. Grosse, S.A. Zimov, and F.S. Chapin III, 2007b:Thermokarst lakes as a source of atmospheric CH4 during the last deglaciation.Science, 318(5850), 633-636.

Walter, K.M., J.P. Chanton, F.S. Chapin III, E.A.G. Schuur, and S.A. Zimov, 2008: Methaneproduction and bubble emissions from arctic lakes: isotopic implications forsource pathways and ages. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences,113(G3), G00A08, doi:10.1029/2007JG000569.

Waluda, C.M., M.A. Collins, A.D. Black, I.J. Staniland, and P.N. Trathan, 2010: Linkingpredator and prey behaviour: contrasts between Antarctic fur seals andmacaroni penguins at South Georgia. Marine Biology, 157(1), 99-112.

Walvoord, M.A. and R.G. Striegl, 2007: Increased groundwater to stream dischargefrom permafrost thawing in the Yukon River basin: potential impacts on lateralexport of carbon and nitrogen. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(12), L12402,doi:10.1029/2007GL030216.

Wang, M., and J.E. Overland, 2009: A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years?Geophysical Research Letters, 36(7), L07502, doi:10.1029/2009GL037820.

Wasley, J., S.A. Robinson, M. Popp, and C.E. Lovelock, 2006: Some like it wet biologicalcharacteristics underpinning tolerance of extreme water events in Antarcticbryophytes. Functional Plant Biology, 33, 443-455.

Wassmann, P., 2011: Arctic marine ecosystems in an era of rapid climate change.Progress in Oceanography, 90(1-4), 1-17.

Wassman, P., C. M. Duarte, S. Agusti, and M. K. Sejr, 2011: Footprints of climatechange in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Global Change Biology, 17, 1235-1249.

Watson, S., L.S. Peck, P.A. Tyler, P.C. Southgate, K.S. Tan, R.W. Day, and S.A. Morley,2012: Marine invertebrate skeleton size varies with latitude, temperature andcarbonate saturation: implications for global change and ocean acidification.Global Change Biology, 18(10), 3026-3038.

Weatherhead, E., S. Gearheard, and R.G. Barry, 2010: Changes in weather persistence:insight from Inuit knowledge. Global Environmental Change, 20(3), 523-528.

Weimerskirch, H., P. Inchausti, C. Guinet, and C. Barbraud, 2003: Trends in bird andseal populations as indicators of a system shift in the Southern Ocean. AntarcticScience, 15(2), 249-256.

Weimerskirch, H., M. Louzao, S. de Grissac, and K. Delord, 2012: Changes in windpattern alter albatross distribution and life-history traits. Science, 335(6065),211-214.

Wenzel, G.W., 2009: Canadian Inuit subsistence and ecological instability? If theclimate changes, must the Inuit? Polar Research, 28(1), 89-99.

West, J. and G. Hovelsrud, 2010: Cross-scale adaptation challenges in the coastalfisheries: findings from Lebesby, northern Norway. Arctic, 63(3), 338-354.

Whyte, K.P. 2013: Justice forward: tribes, climate adaptation and responsibility.Climatic Change, 12(3 SI), 517-530.

Wiedenmann, J., K. Cresswell, and M. Mangel, 2008: Temperature-dependent growthof Antarctic krill: predictions for a changing climate from a cohort model.Marine Ecology Progress Series, 358, 191-202.

Wiedenmann, J., K.A. Cresswell, and M. Mangel, 2009: Connecting recruitment ofAntarctic krill and sea ice. Limonology and Oceanography, 54(3), 799-811.

Wiig, Ø., J. Aars, and E.W. Born, 2008: Effects of climate change on polar bears.Science Progress, 91(Pt 2), 151-173.

Wildcat, D., 2009: Red Alert! Saving the Planet with Indigenous Knowledge. FulcrumPublishing, Golden, CO, USA, 143 pp.

Wilderbuer, T., W. Stockhausen, and N. Bond, 2013: Updated analysis of flatfishrecruitment response to climate variability and ocean conditions in the easternBering Sea. Deep-Sea Research II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 94, 157-164.

Williams, T. and P. Hardison, 2013: Culture, law, risk and governance: contexts oftraditional knowledge in climate change adaptation. Climatic Change, 12(3),531-544.

Williams, T.M., S.R. Noren, and M. Glenn, 2011: Extreme physiological adaptations aspredictors of climate-change sensitivity in the narwhal, Monodon monoceros.Marine Mammal Science, 27, 334-349.

Wilson, W.J. and O.A.Ormseth, 2009: A new management plan for Arctic waters ofthe United States. Fisheries, 34(11), 555-558.

Page 46: IPCC 2014_Polar Regions_WGIIAR5

1612

Chapter 28 Polar Regions

28

Wolf, A., T.V. Callaghan, and K. Larson, 2008: Future changes in vegetation andecosystem function of the Barents Region. Climatic Change, 87(1-2), 51-73.

Wramneby, A., B. Smith, and P. Samuelsson, 2010: Hot spots of vegetation – climatefeedbacks under future greenhouse forcing in Europe. Journal of GeophysicalResearch D: Atmospheres, 115(D21), D21119, doi:10.1029/2010JD014307.

Xu, L., R.B. Myneni, F.S. Chapin III, T.V. Callaghan, J.E. Pinzon, C.J. Tucker, Z. Zhu, J. Bi,P. Ciais, H. Tommervik, E.S. Euskirchen, B.C. Forbes, S.L. Piao, B.T. Anderson, S.Ganguly, R.R. Nemani, S.J. Goetz, P.S.A. Beck, A.G. Bunn, C. Cao, and J.C. Stroeve,2013: Temperature and vegetation seasonality diminishment over northernlands. Nature Climate Change, 3, 581-586.

Yamamoto-Kawai, M., F.A. McLaughlin, E.C. Carmack, S. Nishino, and K. Shimada,2009: Aragonite undersaturation in the Arctic Ocean: effects of oceanacidification and sea ice melt. Science, 326(5956), 1098-1100.

Yarie, J., 2008: Effects of moisture limitation on tree growth in upland and floodplainforest ecosystems in interior Alaska. Forest Ecology and Management, 256(5),1055-1063.

Ye, B., D. Yang, Z. Zhang, and D.L. Kane, 2009: Variation of hydrological regime withpermafrost coverage over Lena Basin in Siberia. Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Atmospheres, 114(D7), D07102, doi:10.1029/2008JD010537.

Zarnetske, J.P., M.N. Gooseff, W.B. Bowden, M.J. Greenwald, T.R. Brosten, J.H.Bradford, and J.P. McNamara, 2008: Influence of morphology and permafrostdynamics on hyporheic exchange in Arctic headwater streams under warmingclimate conditions. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(2), L02501, doi:10.1029/2007GL032049.

Zeng, H., G. Jia, and B. Forbes, 2013: Shifts in Arctic phenology in response to climateand anthropogenic factors as detected from multiple satellite time series.Environmental Research Letters 8(3), 035036, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035036.

Zerbini, A., P. Clapham, and P. Wade, 2010: Assessing plausible rates of populationgrowth in humpback whales from life-history data. Marine Biology, 157(6),1225-1236.

Zhang, J., Y.H. Spitz, M. Steele, C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, L. Berline, and P. Matrai, 2010:Modeling the impact of declining sea ice on the Arctic marine planktonicecosystem. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 115(C10), C10015,doi:10.1029/2009JC005387.

Zhang, K., J.S. Kimball, E.H. Hogg, M. Zhao, W.C. Oechel, J.J. Cassano, and S.W.Running, 2008: Satellite-based model detection of recent climate-drivenchanges in northern high-latitude vegetation productivity. Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Biogeosciences, 113(G3), G03033, doi:10.1029/2007JG000621.

Zhang, X., J. He, J. Zhang, I. Polyakov, I., R. Gerdes, J. Inoue, and P. Wu, 2013: Enhancedpoleward moisture transport and amplified high-latitude wetting trend. NatureClimate Change, 3, 47-51.

Zhukova, N.G., V.N. Nesterova, I.P. Prokopchuk, and G.B. Rudneva, 2009: Winterdistribution of euphausiids (Euphausiacea) in the Barents Sea (2000-2005).Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 56(21-22), 1959-1967.


Recommended