1

Forecasting

2

Forecasters May Miss Big Events The Great Recession

3

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADSA)Business Index, Fed at Philadelphia The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions

index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low-frequency information and stock and flow data. Both the ADS index and this web page are updated as data on the index's underlying components are released.

4

Last Two years

5

Since 2000

6

Since 1960

7

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

08:1 08:2 08:3 08:4 09:1 09:2 09:3 09:4 10:1 10:2

Q109Q208Q209

Q3O8Q408

Q208

Q308

Q408

Q109

Q209

Forecasts of Rate of Real GDP Growth

Survey of Professional Forecasters

8

Probability Distribution on Annual growth

9

You can stand taller on somebody else’s shoulders

10

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index

11

FRED at St. Louis Fed: GDP, 1947-

12

GDP 1947- (Log Scale)

13

Change in GDP

14

Last 5 Years GDP, $ Billions

15

Change in GDP, Last 5 Years

16

Change in Disposable Personal Income, Last 5 years

17

Change in Personal Consumption Expenditures Since 1929, $ Billions

18

Change in Personal Consumption Expenditures, last 5 years

19

Civilian Unemployment Rate

20

Unemployment Rate in California,Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

21

Forecasts Livingston Survey

22

GDP Growth

23

Interest rates

24

Forecasters

25

S&P 500

26

27

28

29

30

31

Duration of Unemployment, FRED

32

Duration of Unemployment

33

California California Economic Indicators

34

35

Employment Growth” Month to Month Changes

36

Home Building

37

Month to month changes in Employment

38

39

40

41

Employment in Wholesale and retail Trade

2,000.002,050.002,100.002,150.002,200.002,250.002,300.002,350.002,400.002,450.00

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

42

43

44

45

Construction, Single and multiple Units (Thousands of Permits

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

I II III IVI II III IVI II III IVI II III IVI II III IVI II III IVI II III IVI II III IV

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

46

Total Wages & Salaries

-100200300400500600700800900

1,000

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012