Post on 16-Jan-2016
transcript
1
Project Management
Samuel BASSETTO, W37-07
samuel.bassetto@inpg.fr
Thanks to Khaled HADJI HAMOU Khaled HADJI HAMOU
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BIG projects, small projects
• Examples?– Facility planning– Personnal insurance management method
implementation– Change of work– Redesign a building – New product development– Commercial introduction of a new product– Research partnership development for an
European Project
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Outline
• Introduction & concepts
• Concurrent to your project:– General project structure– Detailed project structure– Focus on Project’s planning– Focus on Project’s Quality– Risks management during the project– Cost analysis– The project follow-up
• Bonus Slides
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Historic Milestones
• Pyramids…• Vauban (measure of construction times) …• 1900 : Taylor/Fayol/Ford• 1915 : Gantt• 1950 : PERT (Program Evaluation and
Review Technic)• 1989 : Project management methods
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Normative corporations
• AFITEP– Association Francophone de Management de Projet.
• IPMA – International Project Management Association
• PMIPMI– Project Management Institute
• Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)
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Nowadays context
• Why a management based on projects ?– End date– Easy overview– Due date & delivrables => goal achievement (not
insured but facilitated)
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Project : a definition
• 1st definition– The project is a response at challenging
constraints (innovation, deadlines, cost…) that enterprises are facing in their global competition
– The project structures a precise idea, and require human skills and means for its unique concretization, limited in the time
[Berry 96]
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Project : some definitions
• PMBOK Definition– Efforts employed on a defined period for a service
or product creation
• AFITEP Definition– Important realization, with an end, time limited,
with a precise goal, requiring various ressources
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Project some definitions
• Notions extracted from these definitions– The notion of goal– The notion of time– The notion of organization– The notion of ressources– The notion of structure (?)
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Project : the ASQIMC definition
• Finally : – A way of working which
– Structures progressively an object driven by
– Quantitatives goals it– Identified clearly requirements and involves– Multiples skills which are under– Constraints
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Typologies of projects
Characteristics ? Examples ?
(A) (B)
(C) (D)
Entrerprise
Project
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The project management
• AFITEP Definition – The project management includes the
Plannification, Organization, Progression Follow up and the master of all aspects of project in a continuous process for goals achievement.
• PMI definition– Knowledge application, skills, tools and methods
employed by activities for achieving successfully goals of each projects.
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Management
• Project « dash board »– Global overview– Project organization– Project status– Finance indicators– Main milestones– Delivrables– Risks
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The project managment roots
• W : Who ?
• W : What
• W : Where ?
• W : When ?
• H : How ?
• H : How many ?
• W : WHY ?
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Project management
• Answer questions:– Origins of the project :
WHY ?– MANDATORY for troops motivation
– Factor of success :WHAT ?
– Identify what is inside the project WHO?
– Who leads the project
WHAT, WHO, WHEN, HOW ?– Structure and plannify and guide the project
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Project Management
– Functional management
– Institution management
Human Factors
Tools and technics
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Managing the project…
Initial State
Final State
Dreamed state
Ideal Path
Followed path
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In order to avoid
Initial state Final state
Dreamed stated
Designed path
Followed path
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Project structure… & follow up
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Outline
• Introduction & concepts
• Concurrent to your project:– General project structure– Detailed project structure– Focus on project’s planning– Focus on project’s quality– Risks management during the project– Cost analysis– The project follow-up
• Bonus Slides
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Project steering comity / final eval
• Steering comity – 5’ review per project & session– One review per project– Strenghts and weakness, blocking point
• Final eval– Presentation 20’ + 10’ questions & product presentation– Prof ranking– Peer ranking
Grid / 200 pts Nom : Prénom : Team
Time (/20) Outline (/20)is it clear?(/20)
Personal attitude (/20)
Appropriate ?(/20)
Understandable ? (/20)
Final result(/20)Team
Presentation (/80)
Project management (/40)
Support (/60)
Grid / 200 pts Nom : Prénom : Team
Time (/20) Outline (/20) Total (/200)Project management (/40)Answers (/20)
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Outline
• Introduction & concepts
• Concurrent to your project:– General project structure– Detailed project structure– Focus on project’s planning– Focus on project’s quality– Risks management during the project– Cost analysis– The project follow-up
• Bonus Slides
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Project structure
• Several structures:– Temporal structure : phases
• Industrial projects• Information system projects
– Operational structure : activities• Businesses involved• Suppliers
– Organisational structure• Project leader (project manager ?), project director,
sponsor(s), project team
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Why a temporal structure
• Underline critical activities
• Better focus on qualifications during each phase
• Measure and insure quality of each phase
• Better project overview
• Step by step plannification & follow up
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Each phase has to …
• Have precise inputs
• Have a final end
• Have explicit and acceptable goals
• Identify available ressources
• Must be plannified separately
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Example of a project phase
• 1- Enterprise discussion about research opportunities (R&D Project)
• 2- Draft contract• 3- R phase (more exploratory)• 4- D Phase (more centered on indutrial
development)• 5- Thesis write & presentation
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« Product Project »decomposition
Gestion de projet, Ed WEKA
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Project phase and uncertainty
Thesis ≠ Building a wall !
In one side: well defined activities and phases
In the other side: not structured activities,
prospective project.
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Project phasing
• Several approaches– Cascading management– In V– In spiral
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Cascade cycle
Requirement engineering
Requirement book
System design
Building blocs
Modules integration
System validation
Payment
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V Cycle
System requirement engineering
Requirement book
System design
Building blocs
Module intergration
System validation
Payment
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Spiral Cycle
Risk analyhsisRequirement and plannnification
DevelopmentCustomer evaluation
Requirment book
Customer satisfaction
Initial requirements
Requirements revision
Initial risk analysis
Tests
Initial prototype
prototype
Final system
Risk analysis revision
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Contracting Owner
Project Management
Sub Contractor 0
Supplier 0-1 Supplier 0-2
Supplier 1 Supplier2
Project organization ?
Supplier 2-1
Maîtrise d’ouvrage (fr)
Maîtrise d’œuvre (fr)
partenaire
fournisseur
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Contracting Owner
• High level requirements & needs definitions
• Finance
• Choose the project manager
• Agreement on strategic choices and milestone validation
• Strategic choices
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Project Management
• Requirement Engineering & General design
• Action plan Management
• Work management & coordination
• Cost control & evolutions
• Review with Contracting owner
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Several actors (repetition S3)
• Contracting ower– Customer
• Project Manager– Project direction– Project Manager / leader– Project Team
• Suppliers
• Project Board– Board Contracting Owner & PM– Project Leader
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Outline
• Introduction & concepts
• Concurrent to your project:– General project structure– Detailed project structure– Focus on project’s planning– Focus on project’s quality– Risks management during the project– Cost analysis– The project follow-up
• Bonus Slides
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Project and organizations
• Functional organization • Orgnization by Processus (ISO/ QS…)• Matricial organization
– Functions X processus– Function X Project– Processus X Project
• Project Based organization
The project is a tool for change management: a « cubic » organization:
Function x Processus x Project
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Project structure
• Why is it necessary to structure ?• Problems of complex project
– During the project design• Identify the purpose of the project• Identify its development• Prepare an adapted organization
– During the project operations• Establish and follow the project plan (cost –quality- deadlines)
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Goals
• Project structure :– Is a shared referential– Allows an analytical analysis of the project
(prevision & realization)– Introduces a shared integrated codification
@ the enterprise ERP
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Structure project answers…the breakdown structures
• What ? product: PBS
• What to do ? action: WBS
• Who is responsible of what ? responsability: OBS
• Who do ? With What ressource: RBS
• What is the cost ? cost: CBS
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OBS
Project organization
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Several actors
• Contracting ower– Customer
• Project Manager– Project direction– Project Manager / leader– Project Team
• Suppliers
• Project Board– Board Contracting Owner & PM– Project Leader
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Organization
Direction Steering ComityDirection Steering Comity
Project Steering ComityProject Steering Comity
Technical TeamTechnical Team
Project ManagementProject Management
Month/BiMonth.
Week/Month
Day/Week
Project Team
Cont.
u
10u
100u
Continuous/Day
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A member is
• A key person !
• Role
• Skills and abilities
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The project member: an key operating link
Project Manager
Project MemberProject Member
Quality constraints
To adapt to project methods
Cost Constraints
Interface with others group members
Delay constraints
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Role of project member
Participate at project meeting
Project memberProject member
Follows his/her planning
Animate project methods by using them
Be focused on quality concerns
Share information with other project members & collaborate
Achieve its budget objective
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Abilities of project member:HR profile
• To know how to effect a constraint task (cost, quality, delay) => need to cope with pression and stress
• Able to evolve in a coordinated environment
• Keen to Team Working
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Project Manager
• An interface actor
• Role
• Ability and skills
• Constraints
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The project manager is a interface actor
Project Team
Project
Manager
Project
Manager
Services
Customer
Functional Board
Chief executive staff
Quality Structure
Board of direction
Other Teams
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Role of the Project Manager
Find sponsors in the organization
To be efficient
Study and understand
requirements and satistfy the customer
Plan and express
achievable goals
LET DO by the team, Improve
ressource employment
Drive and control the
progression
Project ManagerProject
Manager
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Role of project manager
• Be creative and Charismatic during the 1st phase
• Be respectfull of the plan
• Honnest & review rapidly at the end[Midler]
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Skills and abilities of a project manager
• Master methodologies
• Knowledge of technics involved during the project
• Understanding and create an adhesion atmosphere in the team
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Project Manager constraints
Standards
Political
Technologies Environment
Limited ressources
Project ManagerProject
ManagerEconomic
aspect
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The project Director (if necessary)
Find internal sponsor
Is involved during crisis situation
Agree project strategic directions
Follow several projects and advice each of
them
Project DirectorProject Director
Help for financial aspects
Hire the project manager / leader. Gives his authority
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The project board
Finance
Release blocked situations
Valide strategic orientations
Strategic view of projects
Project Board
Project Board
Involved in strategic decisions and
operation reviews
Valid milestones
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PBSProduct BreakDown Structure
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• A descriptive arborescence of the product
1. level 1 : system2. level 2 : subsystem3. level 3 : Submodule4. level 4 : components5. …
• The PBS is a configuration and documentation management support
PBS- Product BreakDown Structure
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Exemple
Système Rafale
Logistique Avion Armement
Carlingue Ailes Motorisation Navigation Pilotage Trains
Rafale air craftSystem
Logistic Plane Arming
Cockpit Wings Motoring Navigation Steering Gear
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WBSWork BreakDown Structure
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Definition
• WBS : The project skeleton– Project structure – Operational activities definition– Cost follow up– Deadlines Definitions & Reviews– Risk Management– Operation management
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The WBS allows to
– Define precisely each delivrables
– Precise definition of each action
– Deep understanding of each member intervention
– Agreement and recognition of every involved (and / or) impacted services
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WBS concepts
– A structured decomposition of the project– Create every task and subtask necessary for
goals achievement– Each phase is fully decomposed without
temporal relations (for the moment)– The work requires to be
• Complete• Exhaustive• Coherent
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How structuring the work
• Identify phases and major actions
• For each work lot, describe in a file each work unit
• Don’t forget non technical activities
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PROJECT :PROJECT : ..................................................... N° W.O. :N° W.O. : ..................... EDITION FROM : EDITION FROM : ..............................RESPONSIBLE :RESPONSIBLE : .................................... LABEL : LABEL : .............................................................................. DESCRIPTION :DESCRIPTION : ...........................................................................................................................................
BEGINING DATEBEGINING DATE :: ................... FINAL DATE FINAL DATE :: .................... DURATION :DURATION : ......................
MILESTONES :MILESTONES : ...........................................................................................................
WORK ALLOCATION: :WORK ALLOCATION: : ............................................... BUDGET :BUDGET : ....................................................
VV
I I Project Manager :Project Manager : ..................Local Manager:Local Manager: ........................ Task Resp. :Task Resp. : ........................SS
A A Date :Date : ....................................... Date :Date : ....................................... Date :Date : .....................................SS
MAIN ACTIVITIES : MAIN ACTIVITIES : ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... INPUT INPUT (material, doc,...)(material, doc,...) : : .......................................................................................................
OUTPUT OUTPUT (fournitures, doc,...)(fournitures, doc,...) : :....................................................................................................
EXCLUDED TASK :EXCLUDED TASK : ..................................................................................................................................
A task file
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Component of a WBS
• Project• Sub-project• Phase• Work Batch• Task• Milestone• Delivrable
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A task
• Has a beginning and an end
• Consume ressources, which cost and are in limited quantity
• Is linked at other tasks by an anteriority (or precedence) relation (choose one)
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Milestone
• Review or decision task– Is modelled by :
• Has no duration (even if in reality has one)• Do not consume ressources (facing the project
ressource consumption)• Is typed :
– A contractual milestone = Payment– Technical Milestone = intermediate event– Interface Milestone = intermediate event when all
project’s actors meet
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Finally the WBS is
• A Top down and Bottom up tool
• Must not be frozen => need revision during the project.
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Unit « building » principles
• Aggregation criterias– Same project phase– Same Speciality– Same responsability– Same Market
• Decomposition Criterias– Functional– Product– Activity typology– Business type– Geography
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Work description
• Each work lot have to be separated from others
• Interfaced with others• Compatible with enterprise organization• Describe completely
– Input– ouput
• With an unique responsible• With limited size, cost, duration and work
load.
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Decomposition main issue
Find the balance between
• A too wide mesh
• A too small mesh
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Projet info :Logiciel version 2.0
Managementprojet
Spécificationproduit
Conceptiondétaillée
Planification
Réunions
Gestion
Logiciel
Manuel d’utilisateur
Documents de formation
Logiciel
Manuel d’utilisateur
Documents de formation
Réalisation
Logiciel
Manuel d’utilisateur
Documents de formation
Intégrationet tests
Logiciel
Manuel d’utilisateur
Documents de formation
Projet info :Logiciel version 2.0
Managementprojet
Spécificationproduit
Conceptiondétaillée
Planification
Réunions
Gestion
Logiciel
Manuel d’utilisateur
Documents de formation
Logiciel
Manuel d’utilisateur
Documents de formation
Réalisation
Logiciel
Manuel d’utilisateur
Documents de formation
Intégrationet tests
Logiciel
Manuel d’utilisateur
Documents de formation
Example 1 (in french)
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Exemple 2 (in french)
Système Rafale
Logistique Avion Armement
Carlingue Ailes Motorisation Navigation Pilotage Trains
Spécification
Conception
Fabrication
Assemblage
Système Rafale
Logistique Avion Armement
Carlingue Ailes Motorisation Navigation Pilotage Trains
Spécification
Conception
Fabrication
Assemblage
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PBS and WBS linkage
Project
Subproject
System
subsystem
Task
PBS
WBSPhase
Work BatchCOHERENCY:
→Tasks must realize subsystem←Subsystem must be built by tasks
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Need
System
Sub System
Product
Task
Involved agency
Steering comity
Office
Team
People
Flux
PBS-WBS / OBS
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Flux
PBS-WBS / OBS – a « big » project
Need
System
Sub System
Product
Task
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Flux
PBS-WBS / OBS – a « small » project
Involved agency
Steering comity
Office
Team
People
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Outline
• Introduction & concepts
• Concurrent to your project:– General project structure– Detailed project structure– Focus on project’s planning– Focus on project’s quality– Risks management during the project– Cost analysis– The project follow-up
• Bonus Slides
80
Planning
• A project is constraint by:– A beginning date– An End Date (Due Date) – Deadlines & delivrables
• The planning is the art of prevision and follw-up of project’s operational goals: time, cost, quality…
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Project Planning
• A 10 Steps planning method1. Analyse the project2. Identify tasks3. Identify tasks linkage4. Plot the task network5. Evaluate each task duration6. Calculate dates7. Calculate Margins – PERT8. Adjust time constraints9. Draw GANTT10.Allocate ressources
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Main issue
• The art of project manager is– Measure, Decide and Act so as reaching goals
despite of contingency – New planning – planning update
Planning(Idea of the reality)
Real realization
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Level of planning
Steering comity road map (Milestones)
Macro planning – Batch of WorkWork BreakDown Structure
Task & ActivitesTime planning
Task & OperationsWorkload planning
Due dates
Chaining constraints
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Project
FurnitureStudies ToolingFacility layout
1- Analyze the project
Acceptance
Machining
Supplies
Assembly Supplies
Machining substruct
ure
Machining installatio
n
Assembly substruct
ure
Assembly installatio
n
Acceptance tests
Layout Studies
Ganty crane
installation
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Project
FurnitureStudies ToolingFacility layout
1- Analyze the project
Acceptance
AMachinin
g Supplies
BAssembly Supplies
DMachining substruct
ure
EMachining installatio
n
FAssembly substruct
ure
GAssembly installatio
n
IAcceptanc
e tests
CLayout Studies
HGanty crane
installation
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N° Label
Deb Start
A Purchase & receipt of machining tools
B Purchase & receipt of assembly tool
C Study the facility layout
D Execute the facility layout for machining
E Install machining tools
F Execute the facility layout for assembly
G install assembly tools
H Install the gantry crane
I Perform acceptance tests
Fin End
Identify tasks
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Deb Start NIL
A Purchase & receipt of machining tools Deb
B Purchase & receipt of assembly tool Deb
C Study the facility layout Deb
D Execute the facility layout for machiningC
E Install machining tools A,D
F Execute the facility layout for assembly C
G install assembly tools B,F
H Install the gantry crane C
I Perform acceptance tests E,G,H
Fin End I
N° Label Anterior
tasks
Identify tasks
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A
D
C
B
F
E
H
G
I
0
Start End
4- Drawn the network
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Rank calculus
• Problème : which order to choose ?
Start En dtask
1
task3
task2
Task 4
Task 5
90
Rank calculus
• Tâches Antécédents Durée Tâches Antécédents Durée
A / 3 G E-F 9
B A 1 H / 5
C A 5 I H 8
D B 6 J H 2
E B 4 K I 3
F C-I-D 2 L K-J 7
Task
Preceding tasks
Number of cross =
Nomber of preceding
tasks
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Draw the network
• Then (follow eg §91)
A
H
B
C
I
J
D
E
K
F
L
G
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Deb Start / 0
A Purchase & receipt of machining tools Deb 7
B Purchase & receipt of assembly tool Deb 3
C Study the facility layout Deb 5
D Execute the facility layout for machining C 5
E Install machining tools A,D 5
F Execute the facility layout for assembly C 3
G Install assembly tools B,F 3
H Install the gantry crane C 7
I Perform acceptance tests E,G,H 1
Fin End I 0
N° Label Anterior Duration
tasks
5-Estimate duration
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To estimate duration
• Personal experience• Ask experts
(Employ a significative & homogen time unit)
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A
D
C
B
F
E
H
G
I
0
7 5
5
3
5
3
7
3
1
ESDEarliest Start Date EED
Earliest End Date
LEDLatest End DateLSD
Latest Start Date
DurationStart End
6- Calculate dates
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7- Margin calculus
• Free margin– Duration From which a task can be delayed or
relaxed without affecting another task of the project
• Total margin– Duration from which a task can be relaxed or
delayed without affecting the end of the entire project.
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Critical path & tasks
• Critical path– Every path which goes from the begining to
the end of the project with the longuest duration.
– Its lenght will define the duration minimum of the project
• Critical path– A task with margin = 0
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A
D
C
B
F
E
H
G
I
0
7 5
5
3
5
3
7
3
1
0
0
0
7
5
3
5 10
5 8
10 15
5 12
8 11
15 16
16 16
1615
1510
158
1512
105
129
103
50
0
129
0
0
0
0
33
33
44
4499
Calculate margins
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PERT Algorithm (in french)
Algorithme du chemin critique
Données : Digraphe G = (V, E), sans circuits, des activités avec leur durée dik. Résultat :
i début au plus tôt des activités correspondant aux arcs (i, k) partant de i,
i fin au plus tard des activités correspondant aux arcs (k, i) arrivant à i,
durée du chemin critique.
Début I . Calcul des dates de début au plus tôt (récurrence en avançant dans le projet)
1 := 0
Pour k := 2 à n faire k := max{j + djk | j P(k)} I I . Calcul des dates de fin au plus tard (récurrence en reculant dans le projet)
n := n
Pour k := n-1 à 1 faire k := min{j - dkj | j S(k)} Fin.
Notations: P(i) = {k V | (k, i) E}: c'est l'ensemble des sommets prédécesseurs de i. S(i) = {k V | (i, k) E}: c'est l'ensemble des sommets successeurs de i.
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8- Adjust durations & constraints
• Analyse constraints • Review (negociate) goals• Analyse taks (redefine)• Review the technical solution ?• Externalize ?• Increase the ressources number?
100
Week 1 Week 2
M MT TT TW WF F
Task 1
Task 2
Task 3
9- Draw Gantt diagram
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Arrowed Gantt
• Graphical & temporal acitivity sucession
Time (in days)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
T A
T B
T C
102
Tasks chaining logics
End – Start Relation (ES)
Precedent
Next
End-End Relation (EE)
precedent
Next
Start – Start Relation (SS)
Precedent
Next
103
Tasks chaining logics
Precedent
Next+d
precedent
Next
+d
precendent
Next+d
End – Start Relation (ES) End-End Relation (EE)
Start – Start Relation (SS)
104
Un exemple ML-MT
17 w
5 w
5 w
7 w
Total margin
Free Margin
7 w
2 w
5 w
5 w
Task 1
Task 2
Task 3
Task 4
Task 5 (end milestone)
105
10- Ressources allocations
• Definition– Human, material, energetic, informational,
geographic or temporal means allocation for a task operation
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Ressources allocation
• Elaborate an allocation table
• Estimate ressources required
• Allocate ressources
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Ressources allocation
• THe charge planning is establish considering ressources availbility
• If overload are discovered, the project manager must deploy corrective actions:– Grading (Slip the end of the project) – Smoothind (reorganize so as the end of date)– Restructure the project
108
Loads
Loads = duration * mobilization rate
109
t
load
Ressources raised
Ressources availableRessources in ‘idle mode’
Load plan
Undercapacity
Max
110
Project planning
Set of tools and methods for creating
– Indicators
– Operational Balanced Scorecard
For managing the project
111
Indicators
• Measure a phenomenon
• They have to be :– Easy to understand and appropriated– Usefull
• Two type of indicators– Results– Process
• Examples ?
112
Balance score card
• Management tool
• Underline the past performance
• Give information about futur steps
• Strong and Weak Points
• Gap analysis toward targets
• Each gap need an action plan
• Designed during the project first phase
113
The quality of a BSC:
• It is focused = Design for customers
• It is usefull = Fullfill requirements
• It is reliable = regulary reviewed
• It help for the action plan = concrete
• It is complete = Is operational Q, C, D
• It is understandable = visual
Manage with BSC
114
Outline
• Introduction & concepts
• Concurrent to your project:– General project structure– Detailed project structure– Focus on project’s planning– Focus on project’s quality– Risks management during the project– Cost analysis– The project follow-up
• Bonus Slides
115
Définitions
• Do we master indicators ?• Can we measure ?• Do we have control limits• How mastering OOC?• How is the indicator distribution ? (normal, bi modal…)• Which are Cp - Cpk of are key indicators ? (do we master
them)• Audit: Key parameters to an analyse
– Indicators vs relevance – Deployement of a systematic indicator review and gap analysis– Follow-up of indicator in team problem solving– How is the management with indicators
116
Outline
• Introduction & concepts
• Concurrent to your project:– General project structure– Detailed project structure– Focus on project’s planning– Focus on project’s quality– Risks management during the project– Cost analysis– The project follow-up
• Bonus Slides
117
Risks and projects
Some definitions: • Potentiality that a project doesn’t follow its
plan.
• Virutal Gaps, unacceptable regarding goal
• NO projects without risks
118
Risks and projects
Definition in this lesson:
A risk is the triptych:– Unwanted event– Frequency– Gravity
119
Risks and project
• The fundation of risk analysis: the context of the analysis
Context
Fearsome event
RISK
•Fearsome event
•Frequency
•Gravity
120
Risk and projects
Risks caracteristics– Nature of the risks
• financial, human, Law, Commercial, technical
– Risk origin• Customer, Supplier, subcontractor, internal
– Consequences,– Detectability– Gravity
• From no consequence to disaster
– Probabiliy of occurence• Quantitative ? Qualitative (rare, improbable, most likely,
common)
121
Risks Management
• Why implement a risk management?
− Prevent Malfunction
− Prevent firefighting during the project
− In other words
− Contribute to a RELEVANT definition of operational goals (cost, due dates, required perf)
− Having robust goals regarding disturbing events
Risks and projects
122
Risks management
• Constitute a « crisis » group or Problem Solving Team
• For the management: employ KNOWLEDGEABLE & reliable people
Risks and projects
123
Risks and projects
1. Risk identification
2. Risk ranking
3. Risks classification
4. Risk « curring » : mitigation
5. Follow-up and control of risks
6. Capitalization and risks update
Risks ANALYSISANALYSIS process - Dysfunctional analysis
Risk MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT Process
Management of risks during a project / 6 STEPS
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Risks and projects
1. Risk identification• Individual or team analysis => listing of
every potential impacting element:– Have a look at a previous projects’ post
mortem analyses, project databases– Review a risk checklist– Look at a risk database in the organization– Ask experts involved in previous projects– …
125
Risks and projects
1. Risk identification• Tools for the explicitation:
– FMEA
– Failure/Fault Tree Analysis
– Causes Tree
– Bow Ties
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Risks and projects
2. Risks ranking• Affect, for each risk, a value:
– Gravity, Occurrence probability, Probability of non detection
FMEA formalism => RPN = Sev * Occ * Det
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Risks and projects
3. Risk classification• Each risk, identified and estimated, must be
classified and prioritized regarding other risks
• The project management evaluate each risk, determine if it is acceptable or not depending on PRECISE rules, given by the project steering commity
128
3. Risk classification
Levels of riskProbability can bve replace (in often case) by a
qualitative estimation very weak 1 weak 2 median 3 high 4 very high 5
• The criticality is the product: occurance probability * impact
C = I x P
Risks and project
129
PROBABILITy
IMPACT1 2 3 4 5
1
2
3
4
5
II
I
IVIII
III
Risks and project
Area I : Acceptable risks
Area II : disturbing risks
Area IV : unacceptable risks
Area III : risks to treat
Mitigation path
4. Risk mitigation
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Risks and projects
4. Risk mitigation• The declination=>Decline the project
• The cure=> Suppress the root cause of the risk
– Are solution appropriate?– Are goals & constraints negociable?
• The mitigation=> Diminution of the probability of occurrence &/or impact
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Risks and projects
4. Risks Mitigation• The countermeasure
– Accept the risk and take technical, communicational, organizational, insurances
• Preventative actions; decrease its occurrence probability• Emergency measures: If the event occurs, prevent the
propagation of the impact
• The transfer– Which is the best organization for the risk?
• Internal services• Subcontractor?• Customer?
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Risks and projects
5. Risks control and follow-up• Action plan
− Evaluation of final impact of actions− Tracability of action: ACTION PLAN:
• Responsible• When• The forecast risk rank after treatment
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Risks and projects
6. Risks & actions capitalization− A documentary system
• Trace of event & action plan• One risk catalog
• Help the identification of risks for new projects• Standardize risk management
• Constitue risks check-lists• Store debriefing analyses
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Outline
• Introduction & concepts
• Concurrent to your project:– General project structure– Detailed project structure– Focus on project’s planning– Focus on project’s quality– Risks management during the project– Cost analysis– The project follow-up
• Bonus Slides
135
The Cost control
• Ressource planning
• Cost forecast
• Budgeting
• Cost control
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The cost control
• To have a target– The Budget at date
• Compare its position– The previsional cost
• Obtain bySum of what has been guaranty & done (done or in the pipe)+Sum of what is still required (to be payed)
• GAP analysis– Gap, drift, trends
• Taking in account– Project modifications & inflation
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Technical provisions
• Technical provision are used to cover technical risks due to :– Lack of knowledge during cost
estimation
– Project plan review• skeleton review• Planning review
• Often * 2 !
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Initial Budget
• Task organization must be coherent with budget line
• Each subensembly is decomposed of budget line & technical provision
• The sum of all budget line (for all submodule)correspond to the technical cost of the project. There is also the gross margin– General provision for the project– Overhead charges– Profit margin
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Budget Initial
Budget line
Budget line
Budget line
Sub module Sub module Sub module Sub module
•General provision for the project•Overhead charges•Profit margin
Initial BUDGET
Gross Margin
140
BCWP Curve
• The BCWP Curve (CBTP in French)– Budgeted Cost of Work Planned BCWP
• Official, reference curve which translate previsional cumulated cost respecting the project planning
Cost
Time
BCWP
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The BDWD curve
• The BCWD curve (CBTE in french)– Budgeted Cost of the Work Done – Earned Value
• Translate the evolution of real evolution of budgeted cost for executed works at a particular date
A curve depending of the planning & the work progress.
Cost
Aquired, planned
value
BCWPPlanning delay
BDWD Time
Delay
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Planning Gap
Relative Planning Gap :
Gap Planning= Incur budget
BCWP – BDWD= BCWP
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The RCWD
• The RCWD Curve ( CRTE in French)– Real cost of Work Done
• At a particular date, is the cumulated curve of what has been really spend
A curve depending of the planning & the work progress.
Cost
Aquired, planned
value
BCWP
Planning delay
BDWD Time
Delay
Real cost
RCWD
Project Control variance
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Cost Gap
Performance gap
= BCWP - RCWD
If < 0 More expensive than plannedIf > 0 Less expensive than planned
Cost Variation :
Cost Gap BCWP – RCWS= = BCWP BCWP
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Measures analysis (date review)
• Cost realized < Planned cost Not necessarly a good sign
• Cost realized > Planned cost not necessarly a bad sign
• Need a new measure : – Work Done (Physical status)
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Measure of work
• Planned workload
• Used Planned Workload
• Real Workload employed
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Management with delivrable
Real date
Planned dates(or workload)
Delivrable 1
Rencontre des prévisionsavec la réalité
Delivrable 2
D1 delayed
Date of CR review
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Management tool
Real dates
Planned charges
Ideal project; date real = date planned
Pb discovered late in the planning
Earlier pb analysis
Chronical drift of the project
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Status meeting
• Gap ANALYSIS − Difficulties to plan
• Planning = intellectual effort• No standard for duration evaluation
− Ressources• Ressource availability• Several qualifications• Learning time• Ressources are focused on their favorite activities
− Modifications• From the customer• Product improvement
− Failures
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Outline
• Introduction & concepts
• Concurrent to your project:– General project structure– Detailed project structure– Focus on project’s planning– Focus on project’s quality– Risks management during the project– Cost analysis– The project follow-up
• Bonus Slides
151
• WhoWho– The project team
• DurationDuration– 1 Hour
• WhenWhen– Regularly and repetitive
• WhatWhat– Based on FACTs
• FormatFormat– Status Report
• TrackingTracking– Balance Score Card
Meeting Point
152
Follow-up goals
• Help the project manager to take the right decision, so that goals could be achieved the closest possible to the planning.
• Mean: the information system
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Graphical tools
• Milestones planning– Status for each milestons
Late
Real Timet1 t2 t3 t4
2
2
1
1
In time
In avance
t0
Δt= Realized - planned
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Graphical tools for the follow-up
• Milestone follow-up– Extension for all milestones
t + (Δt= time realized – planned time)
Real timet0 t1 t2 t3 t4t0
M 2
t1
t2
t3advance
late
M 1 Passed milestone
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Status
• Time Status
• Workload Status
• Physical Status
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Status Follow-up
3
9 10 11 12 13 1487654321 9 10 11 12 13 1487654321
t0t0 + 5
4
9
6
4 4
8
5Case 1
5Case 2
Case 3
Case 4
Total Lenght = Real lenght + rest lenghtTime status (%) = Real lenght / Overall lenght
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Suivis : example
• Insert 1000 post along a road– Forcasting lenght : 100 days– Mean : 10 men
• Follow-up:– Meeting 1 : t0+10d
• 100 post inserted, Ressource employed : 100 days
– Meeting 2 : t0+20d• 50 post removed & reinsert• 50 insert• 10 people more have been affected
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1- Declared status
2- Calculated statuds
4- Milestones status
5- Percentage statuts
3- Recognized status
Cost forecast
10060
Cost forecast
Stay to be spend
10060 60
10% 40% 60% 100%
60 %
60 %
50 %
40 %
100 % 0 % 0 %
Done 20 objetcsStill to do 30 objects
40 %
Status measures
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0
10
50
95
100
30
80
Send consultation
Supplier choice
Order slip
Expediting at reception
Final customer expedition
Billing
Physical status
Milestones
Tentative requirements book
Final requirementbook
Benchmark
Delivery slip
Receipt
Example of an order
Follow the status
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Physical follow-up - Month 0 to 3
Month event Physical Hours H. dep. / H Tot R.A.F. status Spend Phy. advan planned
0 - 0% 0 - 200 200
1 Envoi des consultations 10% 25 250 200 175
2 Choix du fournisseur 30% 72 240 200 128
3 Emission de la commande 50% 122 244 240 118
Order example
Status follow-up
161
Operational procedures
• Regular review (weekly, monthly, quaterly…)
• Data loading– By activity– By ressources
162
Data collection
• Informal manner– Status meeting– Interviews
• Structured manner– Elapsed time spread sheet – systematically
filled– Directly in a tool
163
Merci pour votre attention
Thank you for your audience
164
Of quality in lessons…
165
A little participation
Votre impression
Points positifs Lesson on: www.g-scop.fr\~bassetts
Points d’amélioration
166
Summary – Project Management
• Several project type• A management idea: W5H2• « Dicton » (Failing to, plan is planning to fail)
– PWS / WBS / OBS / CBS / RBS
• Uncertainty management => Risks analysis
• Project management: temporal review of a project, gap analysis, a REGULAR REVISION
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Subject N°1: GAZPRAM & EXXOUN
• In a global shrinking market place of fossil energy, GAZPRAM & EXXOUN joined their efforts for new prospection and development actions. This new alliance, named G&E produced a first collaboration project:the implemantation of the SIN pipline : from Singapore to Nepal through the state of Myanmar.
• Following with interest your abilities about project management, the Human Ressources Direction of G&E has decided to promote you as Project Manager of this ambitious project.
• You have to do the feseability study of this project in putting a strong emphasis on a meticulus risks analysis.
• Your goal is to present to the sterring comity of G&E the validity of this project. From your results, the alliance can be renegociated.
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Subject N°2: HILTSTARS Resorts & Travel Agencies
• Following its development strategy, in accordance with Dalaï Lama, Chinese government plan to develop touristic aspects of LHASA. «LHASA will become the kingdom of meditation and skying». The high altitude will insure a confortable level of snow and secure this lucrative activity. In order to supply the lack of hostels infrastructure at an international level, Chineese government had launched a worldwide contract offer of 1B$ for the construction of a 6 buildings, 1500 beds each from 4 to 6 stars quality. The HILTSARS Compangy has won the competition. « HILTSTARS resorts & Spa» are a well reknowned brand of luxe and quality. It have been choosen for their knowledge about holidays an luxe facilities.
• Following your remarked ability in team and project management, the HR direction of HILSTARS will entrust you to this ambitious project.
• Your participation will start by the preliminary study of this project. You will be responsible of the general planning for the entire facility layout.
• Your goal is to present to HILSTARS steering comity your forcast planning & the smoothing associated.
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Subject 3: National lotery & the kitchen
• You are a lucky guy/women! You won to the national lotery ! It is not the first price, however, you have enough money to buy you a flat in South of France. You can realize finally your dream. Your own loft is a 820ft^2 to renovate entirely.
• Hopefully, you are a « do-it yourself » person and you plan to start with the kitchen. Several layout works need to be planned : gaz, painting, walls…
• Aware of the good job, you want to do a good job and preserve your nest egg. You decide to plan, buy and install a kitchen from IKEO. They did a super software of cost estimation and kitchen planning.
• Now it’s your turn to play
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Subject 3: Practice Lesson – Lean manufacturing with LEGO
• You have to imagine a pratical lesson of lean manufacturing.– 8 pers. 1 project leader
171
Subject 5: Building a oenologic program
• You have to imagine a pratical lesson of oenology.– 8 pers. 1 project leader
172
Subject 6: sensibilisation of about risk management
• You have to imagine a advertising message to sensibilize to middle and small managers to operational risk management– 8 pers. 1 project leader
173
Subject 7: World roots travel
• You have to imagine a travel around India and Nepal.– 8 pers. 1 project leader