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WP7/8 Plenary Session Presentation
MERMAID, 6th meeting, September 17th-19th, Bologna, Italy
WP8 LeaderProf. Dr. Phoebe KoundouriDirector of ReSEES, AUEB
http://www.aueb.gr/users/koundouri/resees
WP7 LeaderProf. Dr. Barbara Zanuttigh
University of Bolognahttp://www.unibo.it/en
MERMAID, 5th meeting, March 19th-21st, Athens, Greece
Session Plan1. WP7 progress in the last 6 months
1.1 WP7 objectives
1.2 WP7 &WP8 methodology history
1.3 Deliverable 7.2
1.4 Next steps
1.5 Deliverable 7.3
1.6 MUP assessment tool (clarifications)
2. WP8 progress in the last 6 months
2.1 Data Collection Activities
2.2 MERMAID Resources repository
2.3 Social Cost Benefits Analysis
2.4 PublicationsMERMAID 2
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1.1 WP7 Objectives
• To develop CS-specific innovative MUP plans and designs.• To integrate and tune the work within the other WPs through
direct application to real CS and problems.• To develop an integrated multidisciplinary approach for the
selection of sustainable MUP plan and design.
This procedure should be generic so that it can be used by stakeholders and end users for marine planning strategies
MERMAID, 5th meeting, March 19th-21st, Athens, Greece
1.2 WP 7&8 Methodology – History
• D7.1 delivered as scheduled – July 2013• WP7 & WP8 Iterative Process for design selection in CS: - Presented in Delft, April 2013- Presented with example application in Santander, Sept. 2013- Extended, revised, preliminary implementation results, March 2014- Revisit & Confirm preliminary results, Par. Sessions: WP7 & WP8
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------• Implementation: Experts Groups and Stakeholders’ Focus Groups in
CS:
WP2-WP7-WP8• Input on environmental conditions and technical specifications:
WP3, WP4, WP5, WP6
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1.3 Deliverable 7.2 Site specific impact of policies: Report on identification, impact and selection of planning and design options in study sites with implication for policies and regulations
• OD7.2 delivered was re-scheduled – December 2014• A first draft was produced and will be discussed during the parallel
sessions:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5r34tfbkg0gtx1n/OD%207.2%20.doc?dl=0
Goals and objectives of the deliverable
The main objective of this report is to assess site specific impacts of policies, reporting on the identification, impact and selection of planning and design options in study sites with implication for policies and regulations.
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Table of ContentsChapter 1: Introduction and scope of the deliverable
1.1 Goals and objectives of the deliverable
1.2 Definitions
1.3 Relationship to overall project objectives
1.4 Outline for the reader
Chapter 2: General Framework of Analysis
2.1 Short description of case studies areas.
2.2 Description of the MUOP selection tool
Chapter 3 MUOP Selection tool & EU legislation and policies on wind farms and aquaculture on coastal & offshore areas
Chapter 4 Mediterranean Site
Chapter 5 Atlantic Site
Chapter 6 North Sea Site
Chapter 7 Baltic Sea Site
Chapter 8 Conclusions and recommendationsMERMAID 7
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1.4 Needs: for each site we need to know the following
• How was the MUOP selection tool used for the selection of the final design (in case other non-standardised procedure was followed we need to include the details and justification for this in OD7.2).
• Details of the final design(s) for each site (recall that in Athens it was agreed that a single use platform (wind-farm) and a MUP would be available in each site).
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1.4 Next steps
• Remaining questions about the MUOP assessment tool must be discussed and completely clarified during the parallel sessions in Bologna.
• The draft of OD7.2 will be circulated among all the relevant site partners and input and feedback is expected.
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1.5 Deliverable 7.3 Site specific design conditions, month 48 - DTU
Goals and objectives of the deliverable
The main objective of this report is to present the conceptual design of the MUPs in the study sites, considering planning, operation and maintenance.
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Background
• Site Conditions – OD7.1, already available, we should not repeat.
• Draft design concept – OD 7.1 and OD7.2, month 36• Stakeholder views and their influence on the draft design – WP
2• Policies – this is already addressed by OD7.2.
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Table of ContentsChapter 1: Introduction and scope of the deliverable
1.1 Goals and objectives of the deliverable
1.2 Definitions
1.3 Relationship to overall project objectives
1.4 Overview of the sites
1.5 Relation with existing DLs/WPS 7, 2, 8
1.6 Outline for the reader
Chapter 2: Baltic Sea
Chapter 3: Atlantic Ocean
Chapter 4: North Sea and Wadden Sea
Chapter s: Mediterranean Sea
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Table of ContentsSection 2.1 - Single Use and Multiple uses
In this section based on the OD7.1 and 7.2, the site teams should identify two key concepts, one single use and one multiple use to be designed at the site. If for some reasons it is not possible to consider a single use, clear motivations should be given (or maybe refer to a WP 8 or WP 2 Deliverable?).
Section 2.2 - Platform Layout
Size, position and placement of the uses considering their synergy and the optimisation of space (Marine Spatial Planning). A map of the area interested by the design should be prepared higlighting the combination of uses. Where possible, add details about the design (such as cross sections, layouts of the farms including distances among devices/cages and foundation types and footprints).
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Table of ContentsSection 2.3 - Production and energy transfer
Production from marine renewable, from acquaculture, etc. Use of energy for the platform operation and local energy storage or transfer to shore.
Section 2.4 - Operation and maintenance
Plan of the activities required to keep the platform operating and for maintenance. Identification of transportation requirements and related impacts (conflict of uses, existing maritime routes, specific vessels, additional pollution).
Section 2. 5 - Technical Assessment and risks
Structural failure, Geotechnical failure, Moorings, Power failure, Pollution.
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Table of ContentsSection 2.6 - Environmental Assessment and risks
The following issues should be taken into account: Use of marine space; Foundation type; Materials; Impact on the coast; Inclusion of exposed components/parts; Noise/Vibration during operation; Aesthetic impact; Maintenance (Transportation, Fouling, Material durability). EIA should also at least include reccomendations regarding the different scales: local, regional and European.
Section 2.7 - Financial Assesment and risks
Identification of the missing (if any) requirements for a CBA; use of a MCA instead where impossible to do a CBA?? An explanation of the local, regional and national impact of the installation has to be provided considering that costs and benefits have often ery different scales.
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Table of ContentsSection 2.8 - Socio-economic Assesment and risks
Not sure what exactly is meant with “socio-economic”. Here I would expect to mainly address a twofold aspect: social acceptance and participation; societal impact. Therefore, based on the focus groups with stakeholders (WP 2): expected barriers if any to be overcome and related actions to minimise the problem. But also societal impact in terms of competitiveness, concept marketability, technological innovation.
Section 2.9 - Conclusions and reccomendations
Here some conclusion should be drawn on the final selected “best” design, including the challenges, the impacts and the single versus multiple use if applicable.
This layout is repeated for all the sites.
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WP1: Project management
WP2: Assessment of policy management and planning strategies
WP8: Economical, technical and environmental feasibility of multi-use platforms
WP9: Project dissemination & outreach activities
WP7:
Inn
ova
tive
Pla
tfo
rm
pla
n a
nd
des
ign
Estuarine
Active Morphology
Open deep water
Sheltered deep water
WP3:
Ren
ewab
le e
ner
gy c
on
vers
ion
fr
om
win
d a
nd
wav
es
WP4:
Syst
ems
for
sust
ain
able
aq
ua-
cult
ure
an
d e
colo
gica
l bas
ed d
esig
n
WP5:
Sin
tera
ctio
n o
f p
latf
orm
wit
h
hyd
rod
ynam
ic c
on
diti
on
s an
d s
eab
ed
WP6:
Tran
spo
rt a
nd
op
tim
izati
on
of
inst
alla
tio
n, o
per
atio
n, a
nd
dec
om
.
1.5 THE MUP ASSESSMENT TOOLMUP.AT
DEVELOPED BY WP7 AND WP8
IMPLEMENTED BY WP2 During meetings with experts
and stakeholders’ roundtables.
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Presentation Structure
1. The MUP assessment tool (MUP.AT) for design selection.2. Preliminary Results: Implementation of MUP.AT in 4 CS.3. Integration of CS results in Socio-Economic Assessment Methodology.
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Four offshore CS with different characteristics wrt.
- MUP Technical Feasibility- Institutional Feasibility- Energy Production Potential- Environmental Impact- Financial Feasibility- Economic Impact- Social Impact
MERMAID, 5th meeting, March 19th-21st, Athens, Greece
Why do we need this preliminary MUP.AT?
• Select CS-specific MUP design
• Identify Cost /Benefits of MUP design
• Integrate Cost/Benefits in CBA
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Assessment Process and Criteria
A. Technical Feasibility Assessment (TFA)
B. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
C. Financial and Economic Assessment (FEA)
D. Social Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA)
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A. Technical Feasibility Assessment (TFA)
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QUESTIONS:
a. Is placement possible?
Legal Considerations
b. Is placement possible?
Technically Considerations
c. Approximations/estimations of financial cost & revenues
d. Definition of project time horizon
e. Possibilities of combined use
f. Possibilities for technological upgrades
RISKS:
R.A.1 Technical Uncertainty
R.A.2 Financial Uncertainty
R.A.3 Impact diffusion (correlated risks between functions)
R.A.4 Political uncertainty
R.A.5 Unclear definition of property rights
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B. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
QUESTIONS:
a. Significant negative environmental impact (local, regional, global).
b. Significant positive environmental impact (local, regional, global).
c. EIA available for similar project(s) in the region.
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RISKS:
R.B.1 Uncertainty about Climate Change and other environmental parameters.
R.B.2 Non linear environmental effects & threshold identification.
R.B.3 Irreversible environmental effects.
MERMAID, 5th meeting, March 19th-21st, Athens, Greece
C. Financial and Economic Assessment (FEA)
Financial Assessment
QUESTIONS
a. Estimated financial costs: capital, O&M, Administrative.
b. Estimated financial revenues.
c. Efficiency gains from combined use
d. Regulatory/Institutional Restrictions
e. Sustainable Business Plan
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RISKS
R.C.1 Sensitivity to changes of output/input prices.
R.C.2 Difficulty in time horizon and interest rate definition.
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C. Financial and Economic Assessment (FEA)
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Economic Assessment
QUESTIONS:
f. Calculation of efficiency prices for the inputs and outputs of the investment.
g. Determination of indirect and induced effects (creation of jobs, increased economic activity, increased incomes, etc.)
h. Discount investment’s cash flows
i. Economic efficiency indicators
RISKS:
R.C.1 Sensitivity to changes of output/input prices.
R.C.2 Difficulty in time horizon and interest rate definition.
MERMAID, 5th meeting, March 19th-21st, Athens, Greece
D. Social Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA)
QUESTIONS:
a. Monetary valuation of environmental externalities, (Ecosystem Services approach).
b. Monetary evaluation of health and other (e.g. educational) externalities
c. Monetary evaluation of local accessibility effects
d. Perceived Stakeholders' Fairness of Distribution of Costs and Benefits (between income groups; spatial; intergenerational)
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RISKS:
R.D.1 Uncertainty and missing information in estimation of external effects.
R.D.2 Uncertainty and missing information in perception formation.
Bird’s Eye View of MUP.AT
http://www.madgik.di.uoa.gr/mermaid/?q=datasets
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PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MUP.AT IN THE FOUR STUDY SITES
TO BE REVISITED AND CONFIRMEDDURING WP7 AND WP8PARALLEL SESSIONS
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Results
• The row results from the CS-specific implementation of the assessment tools are available at the MERMAID online data repository:
• http://www.madgik.di.uoa.gr/mermaid/?q=datasets
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Atlantic Sea
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✓
✓
✓
✓
Wind Wave Electricity connection
Aquaculture Fish transport
✓
MERMAID, 5th meeting, March 19th-21st, Athens, Greece
Atlantic Sea
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TFA• Technically feasible• Potential combined useRisks• Reliability of technique (WA, EC, AQ)• Uncertainty about estimates of costs and
revenues (exc. FT)• Impact diffusion (all)• Political uncertainty (exc. EC & FT)
EIA • EIA is availableRisks• Uncertainty about climate
change and other Env. Parameters (all)
• Non-linear env. effects (AQ & FT)
• Irreversible env. effects (AQ & FT)
FEA• Some F&E Information • Not enough information on
efficiency prices for inputs and outputs of the investment
Risks• Sensitivity to changes of
output/input prices• Difficulty in time horizon and
interest rate definition
SCBA• Not enough information
on SCBARisks• Uncertainty and missing
information of external effects and perception formation
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
MERMAID, 5th meeting, March 19th-21st, Athens, Greece
Baltic Sea
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✓
✓
✓
✓
Wind Wave Electricity connection
Aquaculture Fish transport
✗
✓Seaweed farming
MERMAID, 5th meeting, March 19th-21st, Athens, Greece
Baltic Sea
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TFA• Technically feasible• Potential combined useRisks• New political skepticism on
the climate change and benefits from using renewable energies (all)
EIA • EIA is available (single
use)Risks• No risks identified at this
stage
FEA• Enough F&E InformationRisks• Sensitivity to changes of
output/input prices• Difficulty in time horizon
and interest rate definition
SCBA• Some monetary
evaluation of externalities (TEEB)
Risks• Uncertainty and missing
information of external effects and perception formation
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
MERMAID, 5th meeting, March 19th-21st, Athens, Greece
Mediterranean Sea
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✓Macro Wind Micro Wind
Floating Wave
Aquaculture
Fixed Wave✓✓
✓ ✓
MERMAID, 5th meeting, March 19th-21st, Athens, Greece
Mediterranean Sea
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TFA (Engineers and Economist)• Technically feasible• Potential combined use
(except floating wave)Risks• Uncertainty about estimates
of costs and revenues• Some uncertainty about
reliability of technique• Political uncertainty
EIA (Ecologists)• EIA is available for some impacts• Possibility of significant
environmental impactRisks• Uncertainty about climate change
and other env. parameters• Some non-linear env. effects• Possible irreversible env. effects
FEA• Not enough F&E information
at this stageRisks• No risks identified at this
stage
SCBA• Not enough information
on SCBA Risks• No risks identified at this
stage
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
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North and Wadden Sea
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✓ ✓Wind Wave Electricity connection
Aquaculture (Mussels) Aquaculture transport
✗
✓Seaweed farming
✓ ✓
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North and Wadden Sea
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TFA• Technically feasible• Potential combined useRisks• Revenues are depended on
oil and energy prices• Aquaculture needs market
development
EIA • Not enough EIA
information at this stageRisks• No risks identified at this
stage
FEA• Not enough F&E information
at this stageRisks• Not risks identified at this
stage
SCBA• Not enough information
on SCBA Risks• Not risks identified at this
stage
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
- Verify correct interpretation of MUP.AT from experts in WP7 and amend where necessary.- Discuss the results obtained from the focus groups with stakeholders in WP 2.- Review the design options and select one MUP and one SUP
for each site; these options have to be provided to WP8 for the CBA.
Expectation for WP7 Parallel Sessions:
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WP8 Objectives & Deliverables
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Completed
In progress
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Document about data requirements for the assessment of MUP designs
• After the meeting in Athens a document was developed to start the data collection for the assessment of MUP designs.
• The purpose of the document is to help systematizing the search for documents and other resources that contain data, which can be useful for the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), the Financial and Economic Assessment (FEA) and the Social Cost-Benefit Analysis (SCBA).
• All the three types of assessments are included in the tables because EIA and FEA information is of importance for the SCBA.
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• For the sake of consistency with earlier MERMAID work, the rows of the tables are related to those found in the MUP assessment tool.
• Table 1 includes documents specifically about the four MERMAID sites.
• Table 2 includes documents that are not specifically about MERMAID sites but about other sites/areas/projects from which data or results probably can be transferred to the four MERMAID sites.
• Table 3 lists documents of even more general nature.
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INTEGRATE THESE RESULTS IN MERMAID
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
THE MUP.AT INTEGRATES SCBA!…BUT MOST RELEVANT INFORMATION IS MISSING
I.E. WP8 HAS A LOT OF WORK TO DO!
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Why Social Cost Benefit Analysis?• SCBA is decision support tool to compare in monetary
terms benefits and costs of a proposal (project, policy or programme), including:
- financial and economic impacts- impacts on environmental resources and
services that are not owned or traded in the markets.
The methodology applies the standard, best-practice methodology of European Commission CBA: http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docgener/guides/cost/guide2008_en.pdf
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Determination of the project’s impact on the national economy (for further information please see
separate presentation by Anastasios Xepapadeas)
A. Calculation of efficiency prices for the inputs and outputs of the investment.
B. Economic assessment of externalities which are created from the investment.
C. Determination of indirect and induced effects. – Creation of new economic activity– Output, Income and Employment Multipliers
D. Discount of the investment’s cash flows.
E. Calculation of economic efficiency indicators. MERMAID 49
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Total Economic Value
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D ire c t U seV a lue
In d irec t U seV a lue
A c tu a l u seV a lue
O p tio n V a lue
U se V a lue
E x is te n ceV a lue
B e qu e stV a lue
A ltru is ticV a lue
F o r O th e rs
N o n -u se V a lue
T o ta l E co no m ic V a lue
Environment
Structure & Processes
Environmental Functions
HumanBenefits
AnthropocentricValues
Use Non-UseValues Values
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Risk Analysis, Uncertainty Analysis
Project-Specific Risks :
(i) financial and economic
(ii) natural – environmental
(iii) technological
Sensitivity Analysis: relates proportional changes in the critical variables to NPV/IRR values.
Uncertainty Analysis: Computational algorithm based on random sampling and on assigning specific subjective probability distributions to important cash flow variables.
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The Figure provides a Monte Carlo histogram for NPV, which was obtained after 1000 repetitions.
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In the parallel sessions
• Discuss what is the status of the MUP design• Provide an update of data collection for SCBA• Discuss any foreseen problems related to the
SCBA
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Forthcoming Publications• Special Issue in Journal of Sustainability (http://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability/special_issues/sustainable_management_of_marine_resources
) • Guest Editor: Prof. Dr. Phoebe Koundouri
• Objective: Integrated framework of analysis of offshore activities under uncertainty (socio-economic & environmental)
• Keywords: marine resourcesoffshore activities integrated sustainable managementSocial Cost-Benefit Analysis Framework for Assessing
Environmental, Economic (including financial) & Social Sustainability
Environmental, Technological and Socio-Economic UncertaintyEcosystem Services Based Valuation Methods
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Forthcoming Publications (cont’d)
• Publisher: Springer Academic Publishers: http://www.springer.com/
• Title of Work: The Ocean of Tomorrow (Vol. I and II): Socio-economic Methodology and Empirical Applications for Multi-Use Offshore Platforms Investments
• Editor: Prof. Phoebe Koundouri
• Estimated number of: Words in manuscript: 400 pages
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The Ocean of Tomorrow (Vol. I)Table of Contents
Preface 1. Introduction.2. A Methodology for Integrated Socio-Economic Assessment3. Socio-economic Analysis on selected Estuarine Site (Baltic Sea).4. Socio-economic Analysis on selected Active Morphology Site (North Sea
and Wadden Sea) 5. Socio-economic Analysis on selected Open Deep Water Site (Atlantic
Coast)6. Socio-economic Analysis on selected Sheltered Deep Water site
(Mediterranean) 7. Risk Analysis on all 4 case studies8. Conclusions and Policy recommendations
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The Ocean of Tomorrow (Vol. II)Integrating Socio-Economic Analysis:
MERMAID, H2OCEAN, TROPOSTable of Contents
Foreword
Preface
Introduction
1. Socio-economic methodology (complementarities)
2. Framework for Socio-Economic Data collection
3. Data analysis methodology
4. Stakeholder Methodologies
5. Conclusions and Policy recommendations
References
Index
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Status of the chapters and articles (Marian Stuiver)
2 chapters in book Springer:
1. Participatory design. As Masha has been replaced with Christine Rockmann, this chapter is delayed. Furthermore we need to do the third round table BEFORE we can produce this chapter.
2. Marine Spatial Planning. Marian sent abstract and title. Bonne van der Veen is lead author and working on this at the moment. I expect to have a draft ready in Bologna
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2 articles in Sustainability Journal
1. Article Feasability Seaweed
This article is difficult to fit in this journal as it only focuses on seaweed and the MUPS perspective is gone. Instead it was proposed to have an article of Sander van den Burg and Marian Stuiver in it on policy analysis of MUPS. They are working on that at the moment. There is a draft ready
2. Article on legislation
Abstract sent but not the division of tasks yet. So no draft ready yet.
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Chapter on data repositories
• An abstract and chapter proposal was drafted by Evita Mailli and Osiel Dávila.
• Literature review is in process.
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In the parallel session
• Clearly identify lead authors and divide the labour
• Discuss the progress in the chapters• Clarify any questions and discuss next steps
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Contact details:Prof. Dr. Phoebe Koundouri
Director of ReSEES, AUEB-RCICRE8 Scientific Director
Email: pkoundouri@aueb.gr
ReSEES, AUEB-RC Webpage:http://www.aueb.gr/users/koundouri/resees/
ICRE8 Webpage:www.icre8.eu