2018 NON-RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING MARKET UPDATE

Market Trends, Actors, and What We Anticipate for the Pacific Northwest

2

Market Modeling and Momentum Savings

Sales Data Collection

Market Intel Gathering

3 MAIN ACTIVITIES

DISPOSITION OF DISTRIBUTOR OUTREACH

4

Recruitment Data Submission QA/QC Distributor Incentive

PROCESS FOR DISTRIBUTOR DATA SUBMISSION

DISTRIBUTORS SUBMITTING DATA = 22

TOTAL DISTRIBUTORS INCLUDED IN OUTREACH = 59

REPEAT PARTICIPANTS = 18 NEW PARTICIPANTS = 4

MIX OF DISTRIBUTORS SUBMITTING DATA COMPARED TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST

DISTRIBUTOR POPULATION

5

Relative Size Distribution Area Business Model

DISTRIBUTOR LAMP SHIPMENTS Floor Space and Branches by State 2017

6

PERCENT OF UNIT SALES by Technology Type 2013-2017

7

LED LAMPS AND FIXTURES

8

LINEAR FLUORESCENT LAMPS AND TLEDS

9

HIGH INTENSITY DISCHARGE LAMPS

10

SCREW-IN LAMPS

11

LED

20%

CFL

23%

Incandescent

39%

Halogen

18%

LED

54%

Incandescent

25%

CFL

10%

Halogen

12%

LEDS ARE 50% OF A-TYPE LAMP SALES

12

LED

24%

CFL

22%

Incandescent

52%

LED

50%

Incandescent

17%

CFL

22%

Halogen

10% Halogen

1%

LEDS ARE NEARLY 60% OF SCREW-BASE REFLECTOR SALES

13

LED

17%

CFL

23%

Incandescent

23%

LED

58%

Incandescent

24%

CFL

3%

Halogen

14% Halogen

37%

WHY WE ATTENDED—IT’S A BIG DEAL

15

World’s Largest Lighting Trade Show

Gain Insight Into Technologies

Talk with Manufacturers

WHO WE TALKED TO

Range of Titles Marketing and Product Development Staff

Sales Reps Engineering Managers Product Managers

16

25 Manufacturers 1 Online Retailer

LEDS

17

Make up 50% to 100% of manufacturers’ product lines

Becoming a commodity Close to their theoretical maximum efficiency

LUMINAIRES

18

Retrofit Kits Readily Available

Some Feature Customizable Lenses/Diffusers

ADVANCED LIGHTING CONTROLS

19

Widely featured at LF 2018: Manufacturers are focusing on controls as the “next frontier” now that LEDs have scaled up Controls Trends: • Easy-to-install products • Color tuning • Luminaire-level lighting controls (LLLCs) • Integrating non-lighting features • No common protocols

SUPPLY CHAINS

20

Traditional supply chains still most common Wholesale distributors by far the largest channel

Retailers

Direct Sales

Wholesale Distributors

ROLE OF UTILITIES

21

Mixed manufacturer opinions about the role of utility incentives

Might be needed only where electricity rates are low

Incentives are a “crutch”

Helpful in getting to where we are Some think incentives are still

critical to generating LED sales

ONE SIDE

OTHER SIDE(S)

Jlaiona @bpa.gov

Jessica Aiona

BPA Research Sponsor

22

CONTACT

Ellen.Rubinstein @researchintoaction.com

Ellen Rubinstein

LIGHTFAIR Lead

Edaykin @cadeogroup.com

Elizabeth Daykin

Cadeo Sales Data Lead

23

APPENDIX

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inform and validate the market model.

SALES DATA & MARKET INTEL

provides consumption and Momentum

Savings estimates

MARKET MODEL

MOMENTUM SAVINGS

HOW IT FITS TOGETHER