Agile estimations and Planning

transcript

Cornel FATULESCUagile coach

Did It Ever Happen to You?

• Who the ... made this estimation?• Sorry it will take me than … hours!• I hope we’ll deliver tomorrow.• I can’t tell you how much time it will take!• We don’t have time for testing• …

Usual solution

Time for an alternative

solution!

Classical IT services supplier scenario

Sales Start-up Ongoing project

Some experts

Some members of newly created

teamThe team

Basic knowledge

Some knowledge

might be lost

Grooming sessions

Release Planning

Capitalize RFP

Knowledge

DoR DoD

Estimations

Initial Release Planning

Product Vision

Initial Backlog

Problem 1How to

estimate features?

Problem 2How to plan?

How to estimate features ?

• What does the team need for each feature in order to increment it?

• How features become part of the increment?

• Estimate the features!

Definition of Ready

Definition of Done

Relative Estimations

Feature metamorphosis flow!

Suggestion Assumed Estimated Ready In Progress Pre-Production

Production Done

Feature metamorphosis flow!

Suggestion Assumed Estimated Ready In Progress Pre-Production

Production Done

? ? ? ?

Release Planning

End of Release

……

… …

Sample of Definition of Ready for a featureStory clarified

Tasks identified

Story estimated

Acceptance criteria

Clear dependencies

Scrum Team accepts the story

Responsible for acceptance

User story complies INVEST rules

Sample of Definition of Done for a featureDesign complete

Development complete

Code commented

Static code quality analysis

Unit testing is done

Code Refactoring

Code checkin

Continuous build

Documentation Done

Peer reviews

Jira is updated

Story is accepted

Why relative estimations?

• Product Owner: How long it will take to deliver feature A?

• 1st team member : 3 Days

• 2nd team member: 6 Days

Both estimations

might be right!

Why relative estimations?

• Product Owner: How long it will take Compared to feature B we’ve done the last time?

• 1st team member : 3 times more

• 2nd team member: I agree, 3 times more

Measure the size, calculate the time

Velocity = 𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 =

Measure the size, calculate the time

Velocity = 𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 =

http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/its-effort-not-complexity

It’s effort, not complexity

“In a class a few years back, I was given a wonderful example of this. Suppose a team consists of a little kid and a brain surgeon. Their product backlog includes two items: lick 1,000 stamps and perform a simple brain surgery–snip and done. These items are chosen to presumably take the same amount of time. If you disagree, simply adjust the number of stamps in the example. Despite their vastly different complexities, the two items should be given the same number of story points–each is expected to take the same amount of time.”

-Mike Cohnhttp://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/its-effort-not-complexity

Visualize the estimations

To estimate

Feature 2

Feature 5

Feature 6

Feature 7

Feature 8

Feature 9

Feature 11

Feature 1

Feature 43

Feature 32

Feature 21

Feature 23

Feature 3

Feature 4

Feature 18

Feature 10

Feature 88

Feature 13

Feature 15

Feature 22

5 SPs 6 SPs 6 SPs 10 SPs 8 SPs35 SPs

How to plan?

Our concern?

Release Planning Process

Sprint DoR, DoD

Release DoR, DoD

What is release planning?

• It is a process not an event!Release Planning at project start-

Sprint 1

Sprint 2

Sprint 3

Through Grooming Sessions

In Scrum no more than 10% of the

Sprint

Usually more effort needed

than in a sprint

Sample of Definition of Ready for a sprintSprint goal

The Sprint Backlog is prioritized

No hidden work

Calculated capacity

Team accepted the Sprint Backlog

All stories meet definition of ready

List of stories for regression testing

Sample of Definition of Done for a sprintRelease Build

Functional testing done

Regression testing done

Acceptance testing done by the Product Owner

Closure

Sprint ContextTeam size

Focus factor

Sprint size

Calendar days

Velocity

6 People

2 weeks

10 Days

16 SPs

Estimate 1 SP

• Estimate in hours several features– Ex: Feature 1• Estimated initially at 3 SPs• Estimated in man days at 6 days• =>1 SP = 2 days

• Ask the team directly how they evaluate 1SP?• Experience and measure

Calculate Sprints Velocity

Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3

Person days in sprint = calendar days * team size

60 60 60

Ideal person days in sprint = person days in sprint * focus factor

42 42 42

Sprint ideal man days1st sprint = (1-40%) * ideal person days2nd sprint = (1-20%) * ideal person days3rd sprint = ideal person days

25 33 42

Velocity = Sprint ideal man days/1 SP 16 22 28

Team size Focus Factor Sprint Size Calendar Days

6 70% 2 weeks 10 Days 1.5 Man Days

Simulate sprints

Backlog

13 SPs

Sprint 1

Sprint 2

Sprint 3

1st Sprint Velocity 16

2nd Sprint Velocity 22

2nd Sprint Velocity 28

Measure and re-estimate 1 SP?

• Ex: 1st sprint estimated at 16 SPs velocity– After execution we deliver 12 SPs– Do reverse calculations from the previous slides

Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 1 SP?

Before starting 1st Sprint 16 22 28 1.5

After 1st Sprint 12 16 21 2

After 2nd Sprint 12 16 21 2

Criteria for ordering the backlog

• 1st The risk which the story should diminish• 2nd The uncertainty on client needs which the

story should reduce• 3rd The contribution to the product quality• 4th The dependencies between stories• 5th The utility of a story, based on business

value, ROI, costs….

Dealing with uncertainty

Demo inspired from http://blog.bobcravens.com/2011/05/4-principles-to-estimation-applied-to-software-development/

Estimate how long will the walking take?

Walking from Iasi to Bucharest

• Distance Iasi – Bucharest = 417 km• Average walking velocity = 5.0 (km/h) – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking

• We estimate walking 8 hours per day• ~ 10.5 days of walking from Iasi to Bucharest

• Initial uncertainty is probably in hours or days

We walk from Iasi to Roman

• Distance Iasi – Roman = ~86 km• Real walking velocity = 4.0 (km/h) • We’ve walked 6 hours per day• ~ 3.6 days of walking from Iasi to Roman

Estimate from Roman to Bucharest?

Walking from Roman to Bucharest

• Distance Roman – Bucharest = ~331 km• Estimated walking velocity = 4.0 (km/h) • Estimated walking hours per day = 6 • ~ 14.8 days of walking from Roman to

Bucharest• Initial cycle time = 10.5 days of walking• Total cycle time = 18.4 days of walking

Burn-down chart Iasi-Bucharest

What about agile planning poker?

• The most common estimation method known in the agile community

• The interest is in the discussions

What about agile planning poker?

• The most common estimation method known in the agile community

• The interest is in the discussions

Estimation issues hide higher problems!

D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10

RAFIdeal RAF

Sprint Backlog

1st Story 132nd Story 133rd Story 84th Story 85th Story 13

Observed issues

• Just technical stories/no user stories• Stories didn’t correspond to INVEST criteria• Waterfall approach in iterations• Lack of Definition of Ready• Definition of Done was not respected• …

Start from the need of information

• Clients want to know when it will be ready, the budget…– Ex: Continuous pulling systems like Kanban=>use average Cycle Time instead

• TODO in another knowledge sharing session!

Cornel FATULESCUagile coachPlanning is Everything. Plans are Nothing.

- Helmuth von Moltke

Agile estimations and Planning

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