AgriculturalorFoodSystemTransformationinAsia?

SureshBabuICABRConferenceonDisruptiveInnovations,ValueChains,andRuralDevelopment

June12-15,2018TheWorldBank,Washington,DC

• Significantprogressinreducinghungerandmalnutrition,butchallengesremain

• TransformationofAsia’sfoodsystemiscrucial– whatarethecurrentchallenges?

• WhatlessonsAsianCountriesoffer?• Evidence-basedPolicyresearchsupport,Datasystems,Capacityforpolicyanalysis

Outline

Asia:Despiteprogress,child undernutritionremainshigh;overweight/obesityrising(Fan,2016)

0

20

40

60

80 Anaemia Vitamin A def.

Prevalence of specific micronutrient deficiencies (%)

Source: FAO 2013

Economic cost of micronutrient deficiencies in Myanmar = 2.4% of

GDP annually

Source:SteinandQaim2007Source: Win 2016

0

20

40

60

Asia SSA Asia SSA Asia SSA Asia SSA

1990 2000 2010 2020

Underweight Stunting Wasting

Prevalence adult overweight/obesity, Southeast Asia, 2014 (%)

28% 21%Female Male

Overweight

Source: WHO 2015

4%8%ObeseFemale Male

Prevalence of child undernutrition (%)

Source: WHO 2012

ChallengestoFoodSystemTransformationinAsia

• Climateresilientfoodsystems• Technologyandinnovationsystems• Institutionalbottlenecks• Policyprocesschallenges• Cross-cuttingissues

Climatechangeandextremeweatherevents(Fan,2016)Overall vulnerability: Physical impacts adjusted for coping ability

Source: Wheeler 2011; OCHA 2016

Rank 1

169

Myanmar ranks 2nd out of 187 countries in the Global Climate Risk Index

TechnologyChallenges

• Technology– laborsaving?

• Gettingoutofagriculture?

• Ruralnon-farmemployment?

Increasingproductivityactorsandplayersinrurallandscape

Farmersand

ExtensioninIndia

ATMA

StateDeptofAg

KrishiVigyanKendra

KisanCallCentre

Massmedia–TV,Radio,Newspapers

Agriclinics

NGOs:BASIX,BAIF

Private:RuralBusinessHubs

ICTprojects

Page 9

TechnologytoInstitutionalChallenges

• Institutionstohelpthepoor?• Whoarethepoor?• Wherearethey?• Whyarethey?• Howtohelp?

Page 10

RuralInstitutions• TheGramPanchayats– Village

levelgovernance• Linkagestoservicedelivery• Linkagestogovernment

programs• LinkagestoNGOs• LinkagestoPrivateSector• WorkingwithWomenSelfHelp

groups

InstitutionalchallengesaffectMyanmar’sagriculture(TheinandBabu,2015,ADS,2018,Fan,2016)

Agriculturesectorlacksstructuralcompetitiveness,e.g.• Naturalrubberproduction:77%increaseoveronedecade• Sugarcaneproduction:~30%increaseGrowinglandconstraints• Competingusefromothersectors;landspeculation;land

concession• Smallholderswholackassets,creditfinddifficultytopurchase/lease

land• Landconsolidation:Slow,limitedprocessduetorequirementof

hugegovernmentbudget• Soundapproachneeded,e.g.BlockfarminginthePhilippines

FoodSystemtoHealthTransformation?

• MacronutrientstoMicronutrients• Iron– Anemia• VitaminAdeficiency• Childmalnutritionremainshigh• Obesityandoverweight• Foodsystemapproachto

nutrition

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PolicyProcessChallenges• Whatpoliciesareinplace?• Whoreallymakesthepolicy?• Whatprogramsareinplace?• Howtheyaffectpeople?• Howtoinfluencepolicy?• Whatisourunderstandingofthe

policyprocess?• Howtomonitortheimpact?

Resnick,Danielle;Haggblade,Steven;Babu,Suresh;Hendriks,SherylL.;andMather,David.2018.

Thekaleidoscopemodelofpolicychange:ApplicationstofoodsecuritypolicyinZambia.

WorldDevelopment109(September2018):101-120.

Page 15

PolicyandProgramInterventions

Ø CashtransfersØ FoodrelatedprogramsØ PriceandtaxsubsidiesØ FeewaiversinhealthØ Publicworks– assetcreationØ Microcreditandinformalinsurance

LessonsfromSelectedAsianCountries

• Bangladesh• China• India• Vietnam• Thailand• WhataboutCambodia,Nepal,LaosandMyanmar?

• Doi Moi reforms– Decollectivization offarmland,equitableland

rights– Liberalizationofagric.marketing,trade,FDI

• Largepublicexpenditurefornutritionandhealth– Nationwidehealthcoverageandsubsidiesto

poorpeople– ~25%ofnationalhealthprogramsonnutrition– Child-healthandfamily-planningprograms

• Supportinghumancapitaldevelopmentandruralnon-farmeconomicgrowth

• Largescalesocialprogramsfornutrition,health,andfamilyplanning

Source: Klump 2007; von Braun et al. 2008; Vandermoortele & Bird 2011

45.6

11

1990-1992 2014-2016

32.3

23.3

1990 2011

Prevalence of undernourishment

Prevalence of child stunting

MDG target achieved

Source: FAO 2015; UNICEF/WHO/WB 2014

LessonsfromVietnam(Fan,2016)

• Decollectivizationofagriculture– IntroductionofHouseholdResponsibilitySystemforsecuring

landrights• Pro-marketreformsanddismantlingofstateplanningand

monopolies• Policiesforhumancapitaldevelopmentandruralnon-farm

economicgrowth• Largescalesocialprogramsincl.onnutrition,health,andfamily

planning• Complementaryinvestmentsineducation,cleanwater,and

goodsanitation Source: von Braun et al. 2008; Fan et al. 2007; Fan 2010

LessonsfromChina(Fan,2016)

• Market-oriented agricultural growth • Modernized marketing chains that connected smallholders to

markets • Increased investments in agricultural research and extension• Product specialization and high diversification

• Integrated and community-based nutrition interventions• Nutrition programs integrated into national plan• Focus on underdeveloped areas and vulnerable populations• Clear linkages between agriculture and nutrition for sustainable

impact• Involvement of community health volunteers for service delivery

Source:Kachondham 1992;FAO2006;vonBraunetal.2008;Leturque andWaggins 2011

LessonsfromThailand(Fan,2016)

• Food Security Mission• Subsidy in fertilizer and irrigation• MSP and assured procurement

Production

• Food reserve and stocks ( > 80 million ton)• 500 thousand fair price shops

Availability

• Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Program

• Direct Cash TransferAccess

• Subsidized food to people BPL• Food Security Bill (Right to Food)

Affordability

Source: Joshi 2013

LessonsfromIndia(Fan,2016)Much effort made to improve food security and nutrition at national, household level

• Integrating nutrition into social safety net improves nutritional outcomes

• ~ 12% of government budget (2.3% of GDP) allocated to social safety net programs for Fiscal Year 2015 in Bangladesh

• Evidence from WFP program – Safety nets reduce household

poverty and improve food security and women’s empowerment

– BUT few improvements on child nutritional status -8

-6

-4

-2

0

Food

Source:Hoddinott,Ahmed,etal.2015

IFPRI/WFPstudy

Cash

Cash+Food

Cash+NutritionBCC

Reductionsinchildstuntingcomparedtocontrol

LessonsfromBangladesh(Fan,2016)

WhataboutDevelopingAsia?Keyattentionareas

• InvestmentinResearchandDevelopment• Smallholdersfarmingandtransformation• ValueChains– farmproducerorganizations• Foodsystemsapproach• Buildresiliencetowardsclimatechange• Multisectoral strategies• Localleveltransformation

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Cross-cuttingIssuesØ StatevsPrivatesectorØ InstitutionalcapacityØ TargetingthevulnerableØ Evaluation– impactvsprocessØ PoliticaleconomyofruraldevelopmentØ GendermainstreamingØ CommunitybaseddevelopmentØ Paradigmshifts– Foodsecurity– FarmingSystems

Research– Livelihoodapproaches– FoodSystemResilience

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CapacityDevelopment?

• Translatepoliciesandprogramsintoaction

• Buildcapacityforlocalgovernance

• Empoweringruralyouth?• RidethenewwaveofHighValueAgriculture

• Public-PrivatePartnerships

Thank you…..

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