AirBnb and the NYC Hotel Market

transcript

AIRBNB’S IMPACT ON THE NYC HOTEL

MARKET

NYU Stern | Data Visualization | Fall 2015

Aviel Eidels, Kristen Ong, Jaafar Rizvi, Chester Tan

ContentsI. IssueII. NYC hotel market storyIII. AirBnB StoryIV. ComparisonV. Neighborhood overviewVI. Takeaways

I. Issue

Coverage

The Hotel Association of New York claims AirBnb is hurting the city’s hotel industry

Data sources

KPIs• ADR• Occupancy• RevPAR• Supply & Demand

II. NYC hotel market

NYC hotel industry snapshot (2014)

56.4mm visitors

$9.08bn in revenue

99,250rooms

Source: STR Data, Hotel News Now, NYC & Co

391hotels

198766,922 rooms

2014 111,208 rooms

2008 85,839 rooms

Average supply of hotel rooms in NYC per year

Source: STR Data, Hotel News Now

2008 - 20143.8% CAGR

1987 - 20081.0% CAGR

Hotel room supply grew almost 4 times as fast on average for the ‘08-’14 period when compared to ’87-’07

NYC Hotel DensityConcentration around midtown

Hell’s Kitchen144 Hotels, 22% of total hotels, 38% of available rooms

Source: STR Data

III. AirBnb story

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015- 0.1MM 1MM 2MM

• Average number of nights booked per year

History of AirBnb

Sources: Wall Street Journal, Funders and Founders

AirBnB was founded

$7.2 mm Series “A” funding

Ashton Kutcher invests

Reaches 200,000 listings

$10 bn valuation

Neighborhood comparisonAverage price Number of Listings

Source: AirBnb data scrape, November 2015

Tribeca has the highest average daily AirBnB room rates, but one of the lowest number of properties available for guests to stay

Chelsea

West Village

Greenwich Village

Tribeca

Source: STR Data

Neighborhoods with top 5 AirBnb ADR

1. Tribeca2. Soho3. Chelsea4. West Village5. Greenwich Village

IV. ComparisonVS

Industry metrics

$272 mm

$9,080 mm

$30912,446listings

99,250 hotel rooms

97% 89%

3% 11%

Data period: April 2015 TTM, Source: STR, InsideAirBnb, Hotel News Now *projected ADR for 2015 based on growth since 2009

Revenue Number of available rooms Average Daily Rate

Market shareShare of total occupied rooms in NYC

2012 2013 2014

Share of total annual rooms revenue in NYC

Data period: April 2015 TTM, Source: Hotel News Now

2012 2013 2014

AirBnb has been slowly growing its NYC market share

2008-2015 NYC Hotel ADR

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Q3/Q4 ‘15 values are projections based on historical monthly trendsSource: STR Data

Monthly average ADR2008: $275.42015: $261.3

2008-2015 NYC Hotel Occupancy

20152008

Monthly average occupancy2008: 81.6%2015: 85.1%

2008-2015 NYC Hotel RevPAR

Monthly average RevPAR2008: $225.12015: $224.6

2010-2015 NYC hotel supply vs demand

Q1 2010

Measure NamesDemandSupply

Q4 2015Monthly average supply |

demand2010: 2.8M | 2.3M2015: 3.4M | 2.9M

Across various measures, the hotel industry has not been suffering

ADROccupancy

RevPar Demand > Supply

V. Neighborhood overview

0K 5K 10K 15K 20K 25K 30K 35K 40K 45K 50K 55KTotal

Chelsea and Hell's KitchenGramercy Park and Murray Hill

Lower ManhattanGreenwich Village and Soho

Lower East SideUpper West Side

Northwest BrooklynNorthwest Queens

Upper East SideWest Queens

JamaicaCentral Brooklyn

Bushwick and WilliamsburgGreenpoint

Inwood and Washington Heights

Hotel room and AirBnb supply by neighborhood

Sheet 13

LegendAirBnB ListingsHotel Rooms

Source: AirBnb data scrape, November 2015

East village/ABC/L

ES: High density and low income

Heat map comparisonHotel room density AirBnB listing density

Midtown: Center

of busines

Source: STR Data

VI. Takeaways

Hotel revenue from 1987 through AirBnB launch in 2008, with forecast through 2014

Projected vs. actual

Takeaways• It appears that the NYC hotel market hasn’t suffered as

much (if, at all) as critics have claimed• Various KPIs show improvement for the hotel industry• Demand for hotel rooms in NYC has been increasing, but

demand for AirBnb has been growing faster• AirBnb’s NY customer base may not be the same as the

core NY hotel customer• Policymakers should not change laws based on the claims of

the hotel industry. Doing so may dissuade potential visitors who cannot afford hotels, hurt constituents who need supplemental income, and destroy economic value from the booming hospitality sector

Source: NYC Go

Questions?

Appendix

Limitations• Quality Ratings: AirBnb ADR does not reflect quality of

room night• Might not be the same consumer• Format of Airbnb (house vs. apartment vs. hotel room)

Rent Heatmap

AirBnb and the NYC Hotel Market

Data & Analytics