ANTICIPATION

John AllspawSVP, Tech Ops

Velocity Europe 2011

Thursday, November 10, 2011

PREPARED?Thursday, November 10, 2011

Thursday, November 10, 2011

KnowingWhat

Has Happened

(Learning)

(Response)Knowing

What To Do

KnowingWhat

To Look For

(Monitoring)

KnowingWhat

To Expect

(Anticipation)Knowing

What To Expect

(Anticipation)

Thursday, November 10, 2011

KnowingWhat

Has Happened

(Learning)

(Response)Knowing

What To Do

KnowingWhat

To Look For

(Monitoring)

KnowingWhat

To Expect

(Anticipation)Knowing

What To Expect

(Anticipation)

Thursday, November 10, 2011

DesignWorkResponseLearning

Thursday, November 10, 2011

“What could possiblygo wrong?”

Thursday, November 10, 2011

REQUISITEIMAGINATION

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Architectural reviews

Go or No-Go meetings

“Game Day” exercisesThursday, November 10, 2011

DESIGN

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Situations Considered By

Expert Designer

Situations Considered By

Average Designer

Situations Considered By

Novice Designer

Possible ForeseeableSituations

Adamski and Westrum, 2003 Thursday, November 10, 2011

“No problem!

I design adaptive systems.”

Thursday, November 10, 2011

DeepwaterHorizon

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Challenger Shuttle

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Thursday, November 10, 2011

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Thursday, November 10, 2011

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Adaptive Systems

ExpectedVariation

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Adaptive Systems

ExpectedVariation

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Adaptive Systems

ExpectedVariation

Thursday, November 10, 2011

ExpectedVariation

New DisturbancesArise

Compensation isExhausted

Control

Disturbance

compensation decompensationWoods, 2011

Thursday, November 10, 2011

ExpectedVariation

New DisturbancesArise

Compensation isExhausted

Control

Disturbance

compensation decompensationThursday, November 10, 2011

Target

New DisturbancesArise

Compensation isExhausted

Control

Disturbance

compensation decompensation

SYSTEMS

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Target

New DisturbancesArise

Compensation isExhausted

Control

Disturbance

compensation decompensation

NETWORKS

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Target

New DisturbancesArise

Compensation isExhausted

Control

Disturbance

compensation decompensation

STAFF

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Target

New DisturbancesArise

Compensation isExhausted

Control

Disturbance

compensation decompensation

TOOLS

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Target

New DisturbancesArise

Compensation isExhausted

Control

Disturbance

compensation decompensation

FUNDING

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Target

New DisturbancesArise

Compensation isExhausted

Control

Disturbance

compensation decompensation

ANYTHING

Thursday, November 10, 2011

WORK

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Predictability

Given situationGiven individual

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Anticipation Skill

UncertaintyOf Events

Unknowable

Unknown

Known

Unthought-of situations

Potential situations

(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011

Anticipation Skill

UncertaintyOf Events

Unthought-of situationsUnknowable

Unknown

KnownPotential situations

(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011

Anticipation Skill

UncertaintyOf Events

Unthought-of situationsUnknowable

Unknown

KnownPotential situations

(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011

Anticipation Skill

UncertaintyOf Events

Unthought-of situationsUnknowable

Unknown

Known

Potential situations

(Cuvelier and Falzon, 2011)Thursday, November 10, 2011

RESPONSE

Thursday, November 10, 2011

RESPONSE

Thursday, November 10, 2011

RESPONSE

Thursday, November 10, 2011

LEARNING

Thursday, November 10, 2011

TIME

Thursday, November 10, 2011

SUCCEEDMATURELY

Thursday, November 10, 2011

DANGER

Thursday, November 10, 2011

“What an immense mass of evil must result...from allowing men to assume the right of anticipating what may happen.”

Leo Tolstoy

Thursday, November 10, 2011

HaphazardCowboy

ParanoidParalysis

?Thursday, November 10, 2011

TraumaticExperience

MatureRequisite

Imagination

Sources of Anticipation

Thursday, November 10, 2011

KnowingWhat

Has Happened

(Learning)

KnowingWhat

To Look For

(Monitoring)

KnowingWhat To Do

(Response)Knowing

What To Expect

(Anticipation)Knowing

What To Expect

(Anticipation)

Thursday, November 10, 2011

FEARThursday, November 10, 2011

CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011

REQUISITEIMAGINATION

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Constant Sense Of UNEASE

Thursday, November 10, 2011

CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011

Homework!Thursday, November 10, 2011

Homework!

1. What do you expect to happen?

2.What might fail during this scenario?

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Homework!

First: individuals

Then:As a group

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Homework!

?Expectations?

Potential failures?

Group versus individual?

Thursday, November 10, 2011

CONFIDENCEThursday, November 10, 2011

The End

Thursday, November 10, 2011

References

• Resilience Engineering in Practice, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/t7cnXC )

• Ch 10, Handbook of Cognitive Task Design, CRC Press (http://amzn.to/s9Qo8n)

• Resilience Engineering Perspectives, Ashgate (http://bit.ly/rFVtvo)

Material in this talk comes from a variety of sources.

These should be considered mandatory reading for operating and designing any complex systems.

Thursday, November 10, 2011