Asunción Paraguay. August 14-18, 2006

transcript

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop

Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessmentfor the Agriculture Sector – Part 2

Graciela O. MagrinINTA-Instituto de Clima y Agua (Argentina)

FAOCLIM

Precipitation Annual 1901-1995

Source of data: NOAA, NCDC

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

m) J anuary, Santa Rosa Argentina

1: Evergreen needle leaf forests2: Evergreen broad leaf forests3: Deciduous needle leaf forests4: Deciduous broad leaf forests5: Mixed forests6: Woodlands

Global Land Cover Classification

7: Wooded grasslands/shrubs8: Closed bushlands or shrublands9: Open shrublands10: Grasses11: Croplands12: Bare13: Mosses and lichens

De Fries et al., 1998

Eva et al., 2004

Population

Map of the night-time city lights of the worldDMSP: NASA and NOAA

Lights are Related to Income and Population

Soils: FAO

The projected change in annual temperature and precipitation for the 2050s compared to the present day, for two GCMs, when the climate models are driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations defined by the IPCC “business-as-usual” scenario.

http://www.icasanet.org/ http://www.clac.edu.eg

International Consortium for Agricultural Systems Applications

Question: What components of the farming system are particularly vulnerable, and may thus require special attention? – crop models (e.g., DSSAT)

Practical Applications: DSSAT

1. Overview and previous examples of use

2. Guided use of model (three practical applications to be done by the participants)

DSSAT Decision Support System for

Agrotechnology Transfer

Components Description

Databases Weather, soil, genetics, pests, experiments, economics

Models Crop models (maize, wheat, rice, barley, sorghum, millet, soybean, peanut, dry bean, potato, cassava, etc.)

Supporting software

Graphics, weather, pests, soil, genetics, experiments, economics

Applications Validation, sensitivity analysis, seasonal strategy, crop rotations

Input Requirements

Weather: Daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, solar radiation

Soil: Soil texture and soil water measurements

Management: planting date, variety, row spacing, irrigation and N fertilizer amounts and dates, if any

Crop data: dates of anthesis and maturity, biomass and yield, measurements on growth and Leaf Area Index (LAI)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6Observados (t/ha)

Trigo Soja

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Observados (t/ha)

Crop Model ValidationWheat: 23 sites (m.e.: 10%)Soybean: 16 sites (m.e.: 10.9%Maize: 11 sites ( m.e.: 7.8%

Travasso & Magrin, 2001

Examples

Can optimal management be an adaptation option for maize production in Argentina?

Can adaptation be achieved by optimizing crop varieties?

Can changes of crop mix be an adaptation option?

Can Optimal Management be an Adaptation Option for Maize Production in

Argentina?

Source Argentina 2º National communication

Adaptation: Argentina

Tres Arroyos Santa Rosa

Without adaptation

Level 1: Changing planting date and fertilizer amount

Level 2: Level 1 + I rrigation

HadCM3 B2 2050

Adaptation strategies in two locations of Argentina

Increased inputs and

improve management:

• Planting date

• Fertilizer

• Irrigation

Travasso et al., 2006

Crop Coefficients Corn

. Juvenile phase (growing degree days base 8°C from emergence to end of the juvenile phase)

. Photoperiod sensitivity

. Grain filling duration (growing degree days base 8 from silking to physiological maturity)

. Potential kernel number

. Potential kernel weight (growth rate)

Can Adaptation be Achieved by Optimizing Crop Varieties?

Optimizing crop varietiesOptimizing crop varieties

Maize >P1 Maize >P1 Juvenile phase

Wheat Wheat >P1D photoperiodic sensitivity>P1D photoperiodic sensitivity

Practical Applications

1. Effect of management (nitrogen and irrigation) in wet and dry sites

1. Effect of climate change on wet and dry sites

Sensitivity analysis to changes in temperature and precipitation (thresholds) and CO2 levels

2. Adaptation: Changes in management to improve yield under climate change

Application 1. Management

Objective: Getting started

Weather

San Luis Pergamino

SR (MJ m2 day1) 17.5 15.9

T Max (°C) 24.4 22.9

T Min (°C) 11.6 10.6

Precipitation (mm) 603 1029

Rain Days (num) 65 85.4

Input Files Needed

Weather Soils Cultivars Management files (*.MZX files) description of

the experiment

Open DSSAT . . .

Weather file

Soilfile

Genotype file (Definition of cultivars)

Examine the Data Files . . .

Location of the Cultivar File . . .

Select the Cultivar File . . .

Examine the Cultivar File . . .

Location of the Weather File . . .

Select the Weather File . . .

Examine the Weather Files . . .

Weather file

Calculate Monthly Means . . .

Calculate Monthly Means . . . (continued)

Location of the Input Experiment File . . .

Select the Experiment File . . .

Examine the Experiment File (Syria)

Examine the Experiment File

. . . The Experiment File Can Be Edited Also With a Text Editor (Notepad)

Start Simulation …

Running . . .

Select Experiment . . .

Select Treatment . . .

View the Results . . .

Select Option . . .

Management Maize yield San Luis and Pergamino

Argentina

Rainfed low N Rainfed high N I riig low N I rrig high N

San Luis

Pergamino

Analyse and Present Results

Exp 2. Sensitivity to Climate

Objective: Effect of weather modification

Start Simulation . . .

Sensitivity Analysis . . .

Select Option …

Climate change impacts

baseline +2C +20% +2C -20%

San Luis

Pergamino

http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/aglw/cropwat.htm

CROPWAT is a decision support system for irrigation planning and management.

Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress of changes in water supply/demand? – irrigation models (e.g., CROPWAT)

http://www.clac.edu.eg

Experiments

1. Calculate ET0

2. Calculate crop water requirements

3. Calculate irrigation requirements for several crops in a farm

Start CROPWAT …

Retrieve Climate File . . .

Examine Temperature . . .

Examine ET0 . . .

Calculate ET0 . . .

Examine Rainfall . . .

Retrieve Crop Parameters . . .

View Progress of Inputs . . .

Define and View Crop Areas Selected . . .

Define Irrigation Method . . .

Input Data Completed . . .

Calculate Irrigation Demand . . .

Calculate Irrigation Schedule . . .

View Results . . .

Asunción Paraguay. August 14-18, 2006

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