Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments Hands-On Training Workshop
Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessmentfor the Agriculture Sector – Part 2
Asunción Paraguay. August 14-18, 2006
Graciela O. MagrinINTA-Instituto de Clima y Agua (Argentina)
FAOCLIM
Precipitation Annual 1901-1995
Source of data: NOAA, NCDC
0
40
80
120
160
200
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Prec
ipit
atio
n (m
m) J anuary, Santa Rosa Argentina
1: Evergreen needle leaf forests2: Evergreen broad leaf forests3: Deciduous needle leaf forests4: Deciduous broad leaf forests5: Mixed forests6: Woodlands
Global Land Cover Classification
7: Wooded grasslands/shrubs8: Closed bushlands or shrublands9: Open shrublands10: Grasses11: Croplands12: Bare13: Mosses and lichens
De Fries et al., 1998
Eva et al., 2004
Population
Map of the night-time city lights of the worldDMSP: NASA and NOAA
Lights are Related to Income and Population
Soils: FAO
The projected change in annual temperature and precipitation for the 2050s compared to the present day, for two GCMs, when the climate models are driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations defined by the IPCC “business-as-usual” scenario.
http://www.icasanet.org/ http://www.clac.edu.eg
International Consortium for Agricultural Systems Applications
Question: What components of the farming system are particularly vulnerable, and may thus require special attention? – crop models (e.g., DSSAT)
Question: What components of the farming system are particularly vulnerable, and may thus require special attention? – crop models (e.g., DSSAT)
Practical Applications: DSSAT
Practical Applications: DSSAT
1. Overview and previous examples of use
2. Guided use of model (three practical applications to be done by the participants)
DSSAT Decision Support System for
Agrotechnology Transfer
Components Description
Databases Weather, soil, genetics, pests, experiments, economics
Models Crop models (maize, wheat, rice, barley, sorghum, millet, soybean, peanut, dry bean, potato, cassava, etc.)
Supporting software
Graphics, weather, pests, soil, genetics, experiments, economics
Applications Validation, sensitivity analysis, seasonal strategy, crop rotations
Input Requirements
Weather: Daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, solar radiation
Soil: Soil texture and soil water measurements
Management: planting date, variety, row spacing, irrigation and N fertilizer amounts and dates, if any
Crop data: dates of anthesis and maturity, biomass and yield, measurements on growth and Leaf Area Index (LAI)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6Observados (t/ha)
Sim
ulad
os (
t/ha)
Trigo Soja
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Observados (t/ha)
Sim
ulad
os (
t/ha)
Maíz
Crop Model ValidationWheat: 23 sites (m.e.: 10%)Soybean: 16 sites (m.e.: 10.9%Maize: 11 sites ( m.e.: 7.8%
Travasso & Magrin, 2001
Examples
Can optimal management be an adaptation option for maize production in Argentina?
Can adaptation be achieved by optimizing crop varieties?
Can changes of crop mix be an adaptation option?
Can Optimal Management be an Adaptation Option for Maize Production in
Argentina?
Source Argentina 2º National communication
Adaptation: Argentina
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Tres Arroyos Santa Rosa
Cha
nges
in
mai
ze y
ield
(%
)
Without adaptation
Level 1: Changing planting date and fertilizer amount
Level 2: Level 1 + I rrigation
HadCM3 B2 2050
Adaptation strategies in two locations of Argentina
Increased inputs and
improve management:
• Planting date
• Fertilizer
• Irrigation
Travasso et al., 2006
Crop Coefficients Corn
. Juvenile phase (growing degree days base 8°C from emergence to end of the juvenile phase)
. Photoperiod sensitivity
. Grain filling duration (growing degree days base 8 from silking to physiological maturity)
. Potential kernel number
. Potential kernel weight (growth rate)
P1
P2P5
G2G5
P1
P2P5
G2G5
Can Adaptation be Achieved by Optimizing Crop Varieties?
Optimizing crop varietiesOptimizing crop varieties
Maize >P1 Maize >P1 Juvenile phase
Wheat Wheat >P1D photoperiodic sensitivity>P1D photoperiodic sensitivity
Practical Applications
1. Effect of management (nitrogen and irrigation) in wet and dry sites
1. Effect of climate change on wet and dry sites
Sensitivity analysis to changes in temperature and precipitation (thresholds) and CO2 levels
2. Adaptation: Changes in management to improve yield under climate change
Application 1. Management
Objective: Getting started
Weather
San Luis Pergamino
SR (MJ m2 day1) 17.5 15.9
T Max (°C) 24.4 22.9
T Min (°C) 11.6 10.6
Precipitation (mm) 603 1029
Rain Days (num) 65 85.4
Input Files Needed
Weather Soils Cultivars Management files (*.MZX files) description of
the experiment
Open DSSAT . . .
Weather file
Soilfile
Genotype file (Definition of cultivars)
Examine the Data Files . . .
Location of the Cultivar File . . .
Select the Cultivar File . . .
Examine the Cultivar File . . .
Location of the Weather File . . .
Select the Weather File . . .
Examine the Weather Files . . .
Weather file
Calculate Monthly Means . . .
Calculate Monthly Means . . . (continued)
Location of the Input Experiment File . . .
Select the Experiment File . . .
Examine the Experiment File (Syria)
Examine the Experiment File
. . . The Experiment File Can Be Edited Also With a Text Editor (Notepad)
Start Simulation …
Running . . .
Select Experiment . . .
Select Treatment . . .
View the Results . . .
Select Option . . .
Management Maize yield San Luis and Pergamino
Argentina
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Rainfed low N Rainfed high N I riig low N I rrig high N
yiel
d (
t/ha
)
San Luis
Pergamino
Analyse and Present Results
Analyse and Present Results
Analyse and Present Results
Analyse and Present Results
Exp 2. Sensitivity to Climate
Objective: Effect of weather modification
Start Simulation . . .
Sensitivity Analysis . . .
Select Option …
Climate change impacts
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
baseline +2C +20% +2C -20%
mai
ze y
ield
(t/
ha)
San Luis
Pergamino
http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/aglw/cropwat.htm
CROPWAT is a decision support system for irrigation planning and management.
Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress of changes in water supply/demand? – irrigation models (e.g., CROPWAT)
Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress of changes in water supply/demand? – irrigation models (e.g., CROPWAT)
http://www.clac.edu.eg
Experiments
1. Calculate ET0
2. Calculate crop water requirements
3. Calculate irrigation requirements for several crops in a farm
Start CROPWAT …
Retrieve Climate File . . .
Examine Temperature . . .
Examine ET0 . . .
Calculate ET0 . . .
Examine Rainfall . . .
Retrieve Crop Parameters . . .
View Progress of Inputs . . .
Define and View Crop Areas Selected . . .
Define Irrigation Method . . .
Input Data Completed . . .
Calculate Irrigation Demand . . .
Calculate Irrigation Schedule . . .
View Results . . .
