Post on 19-Aug-2020
transcript
Research & Forecast Report
ATLANTAQ1 2017 | Multifamily
Atlanta’s Economy Keeps Pace with the Apartment MarketKey Takeaways > Atlanta: Ranks #2 in transaction volume with $6.2 billion (year-ending 1st Q 2017)
> Annual rent growth: Atlanta, 6.2%; National 3.7%
> Supply: Annual net expansion 10,903 units during year-ending 1st Q 2017
> Atlanta Economy: Increased an estimated average of 3.9% per year in 5 years ending 1st Q 2017
> Education: Atlanta ranks 5th largest in the southeast among metros with highest concentration of people with a bachelor’s degree or higher
Atlanta Multifamily MarketAtlanta’s strong economy stems from a well-educated workforce, immense transportation and a business-focused environment. Economic gains, bolstered in part by numerous corporate relocations, continue to rank Atlanta among the top major U.S. metros for economic growth. Strong job growth and higher paying jobs help lead to improved demand for apartments. Atlanta’s economy expanded at an estimated average of 3.9% per year in the five years ending 1st quarter 2017.Rapid apartment rental growth over the last couple years in the metro area follows economic gains primarily inside Perimeter submarkets and in northern suburbs. The number of Millennials between the prime renter ages of 20 and 34 is projected to increase significantly before its peak in 2024. That coincides with a surge in young, college-educated renters relocating to urban areas for the live, work, play city lifestyle that includes entertainment and access to public transportation. Atlanta, since 2015, boasts the fifth largest concentration of people with a bachelor’s degree or higher among major metros in the Southeast, trailing Washington D.C., Raleigh/Durham, Nashville and Baltimore.SUPPLYAs supply remains elevated in Atlanta, completions have remained manageable and concentrated in certain submarkets. Inventory expanded at an average annual rate of 1.6% over the past three years, as annual completions ranged from roughly 5,000 units to 10,900 units. In the year-ending 1st quarter 2017, a total of 10,903 units were added, with 558 units taken offline, for an annual net expansion rate of 2.2%. Completions largely have been focused inside the Perimeter, primarily in Midtown and Buckhead, while submarkets outside the perimeter except for Sandy Springs/Dunwoody and Alpharetta/Cumming remained mostly untouched by development. Identified projects and permit volumes suggest that supply should remain at elevated levels for the foreseeable future.
US ATLANTA Source: AXIOMetrics
Historical Apartment Rents & Occupancy
Market IndicatorsRelative to prior period
ATLQ1 2017
ATLQ2 2017*
VACANCY
RENTS
CONCESSIONS
TRANSACTIONS
PRICE PER UNIT
CAP RATES
*Projected
Occ
upan
cy %
Effec
tive
Mo
Rent
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1000
$1100
$1200
$1300
$1400
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
2 Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Historical Investment Volume & Cap Rates
UPDATE - Recent Transactions in the Market
Notable Sales Activity
PROPERTY SUBMARKET SALES DATE SALE PRICE SIZE (UNITS) PRICE / UNIT BUYER
Gables Emory Point Decatur 5/3/2017 $153,261,088* 750 $204,348* Blackstone
Avia @ North Springs Central Perimeter 4/3/2017 $89,300,000 530 $168,491 Harbor Group International
Encore @ Clairmont Northlake 4/27/2017 $74,060,000 359 $206,295 Fowler Property Acquisition
Arrive Perimeter Central Perimeter 3/7/2017 $65,500,000 408 $160,539 Fowler Property Acquisition
Prelude at Clairmont Northlake 4/27/2017 $58,190,000 353 $164,844 Fowler Property Acquisition
Jasmine Woodlands Northwest Atlanta 1/20/2017 $58,100,000 644 $90,217 GEM OPS LLC
Element 41 Northwest Atlanta 1/18/2017 $54,975,000 494 $111,285 Atlantic Creek RE Partners
Collier Ridge Midtown 1/12/2017 $49,300,000 300 $164,333 M. Banks Realty Partners
The Aster Buckhead Buckhead 1/19/2017 $46,200,000 224 $206,250 CBRE Global Investors
The Lodge @ Bridge Mill Northwest Atlanta 1/11/2017 $40,000,000 150 $266,666 Galil Management
Sales Volume AVG Cap Rate
ATLANTA MULTIFAMILY
Atlanta apartment investment volume in the first quarter of the year topped $1 million for the eleventh consecutive quarter. The average price per unit reached another record high at $106,681; up 2% from the end of 2016 according to Real Capital Analytics. The average cap rate in the first quarter for Atlanta apartments remained relatively level at around 6%.
5.0%
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6.0%
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7.0%
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8.0%
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Billions
Atlanta Multifamily Market (continued)
DEMAND Atlanta apartment demand remains robust, as annual absorption ranges between 8,500 units and 12,700 units for the past 14 quarters. The five-year annual average is roughly 9,200 units. Compared to year-ending 4th quarter 2016, year-ending 1st quarter 2017 posted demand for 11,167 units, a surplus of 2,303 units. Demand in Atlanta’s highly sought after areas inside the perimeter continue to trend upward as completion of more affordable options pose a threat. Going forward, demand should remain solid, but will likely struggle in less attractive areas.RENTAnnual rent levels remain well above the historical norms, averaging around 6% to 8% in the last several quarters. The 6.2% increase in the year-ending 1st quarter 2017 landed well above the preliminary norms for both the South region (3.2%) and the nation overall (3.7%). Higher rents are mostly being realized in the Midtown and northern submarket where new class A product is in high demand. Class B and C apartments will experience some movement in rent as construction begins to slow but the market is likely to remain reliant on top-tier apartments in well-located areas. Although rent growth will revert to more sustainable levels, multifamily remains a safe bet for most investors over the next few years.
OCCUPANCYIn the 1st quarter 2017, occupancy registered 94.3%, up 0.3 points year over year and up 6.0 points from the post-recession low recorded in 4th quarter 2009. Higher occupancy posted in top and middle-market categories over older and more affordable product. A similar trend was seen among submarkets, as central and northern submarkets generally maintained higher occupancy rates. Meanwhile, submarkets to Midtown’s south and outside the Perimeter, such as DeKalb and Clayton Counties, remained challenged with weaker demand. As more completions hit the market, occupancy rates will be tested, measuring the strength of healthier submarkets.CAPITAL MARKETSTransaction volumes in Atlanta remain among the highest in the country. Atlanta is second, behind New York and more than $1.5 billion ahead of the #3 ranked Los Angeles, with a total of $6.2 billion in the year-ending 1st quarter 2017. A total of 188 apartment transactions took place in Atlanta over the past year, the third most nationally and the most in the region. The average price per unit was about $112,000 for the year-ending 1st quarter 2017, which is relatively affordable compared to the rest of U.S. Apartment transactions have continued to increase in recent years causing cap rates to compress. In the year-ending 1st quarter 2017, cap rates averaged 5.93%, down 45 basis points. As pricing continues to elevate, things to look for in the next year is the increasing pressure of single-family housing and increasing apartment supply, particularly inside the perimeter.
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Source: CoStar Comps*allocated
3 Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Boston Consulting Group Said to Plan Atlanta Expansion
> The “Big Three” consulting firm is expected to create up to 200 jobs in the region, sources told Atlanta Business Chronicle. BCG has an Atlanta office at 1075 Peachtree, a 725,000 square-foot office tower in Midtown. The expansion, related to a specific project, could include a new office, possible in Gwinnett County, a source said. BCG’s expansion would be the latest in a wave of professional services firms expanding in Metro Atlanta, drawn by the region’s growing population, global connectivity, and an abundant young and tech-savvy workforce
Software Firm GeoFields Inc. Relocating Midtown Office to Bank of America Plaza
> GeoFields Inc. is relocating its Atlanta office to Bank of America Plaza. GeoFields is moving into the “tech lofts,” a section of the 55-story Bank of America Plaza building dedicated to technology and creative class companies. It would lease about 4,400 square feet, per City of Atlanta building permits, though the exact size of the office has not been formally released.
Amazon Expands into Midtown Atlanta; Said to Bring New Business Unit
> Internet services giant Amazon (NYSE: AMZN) is expanding into Midtown and plans to bring a new business unit to Atlanta. The Seattle-based e-commerce and internet services firm will take more than 23,000 square feet, or a floor, at an Atlantic Station office tower. Amazon could employ about 150 in Midtown, based on real estate industry estimates. Details of what Amazon will do in the space remain unknown, but a source said it involves a new business unit for the Atlanta market.
> Amazon’s cloud computing services business, or AWS, has a 20,000 square foot office at Terminus 200 in Buckhead. AWS is Amazon’s fastest-growing division. In Midtown, Amazon will locate at 271 17 th St., a 25-story tower in the Atlantic Station mixed use development. A massive $2 million will be invested in the build-out, per a building permit filed with the city.
CallRail Doubles Down on Downtown Atlanta, Plans 110 Jobs
> CallRail provides businesses greater insight into where a phone call-based sales lead is coming from, and which marketing campaigns are effective. CallRail, which employs 90, plans to add about 110 new jobs by end of 2018 to keep pace with growing demand, CEO Andy Powell said. CallRail had more than $11 million in 2016 revenue, up 80 percent from the prior year. CallRail is one of the few tech firms flourishing in downtown Atlanta, a submarket not known to attract such companies. Downtown’s walkability, access to MARTA and vibrant restaurant scene makes the area easy to recruit young talent to.
Metro Atlanta Housing Permit Activity
0
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18,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Multifam
ily Permits
Issued
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Metro Atlanta Employment Overview
‐42.1‐22.9
30.1
69.6 66.149.0
‐27.1
‐136.1
‐20.9
35.6 42.660.0
89.178.7 85.7
‐150.0
‐100.0
‐50.0
0.0
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100.0
150.0
Jobs Add
ed/Lost (thou
sand
s)
Source: US Dept. of Labor Statistics/Moody’s Analytics
Metro Atlanta Employment Comparison
METRO AREA RANK Y-O-Y EMPLOYMENT
Y-O-Y PERCENT
UNEMPLOYMENTRATE
Dallas-Fort Worth 1 129,700 3.8% 4.3%
New York/NNJ 2 108,200 1.2% 4.1%
Los Angeles/OC 3 107,600 1.8% 4.2%
Atlanta 4 103,100 3.9% 4.6%
Miami 5 65,400 2.5% 4.6%
San Francisco 6 63,000 2.7% 3.5%
Seattle 7 61,200 3.2% 3.7%
Philadelphia 8 57,000 2.0% 4.6%
Phoenix 9 53,400 2.7% 4.1%
Riverside-San Bern. 10 52,400 3.8% 5.3%
DC-Arlington 11 50,500 1.6% 3.7%
Tampa-St. Pete 12 44,100 3.4% 4.1%
U.S. Total 2,085,000 1.4% 4.6%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Metro Level Data March 2017(p) Average, not Seasonally Adjusted
Notable Atlanta Job Relocations
4 Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
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Snellville
Stone Mountain
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Conyers
Covington
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Gra
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Hunnicutt St NW
Mills St NW
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North Ave NW
Pine St NW
26th St NW
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Collier Rd NW
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Brighton Rd NE
Camden Rd NE
Peachtree St NEDeering Rd NW
Hascall Rd NW
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Beverly Rd NE
Peachtree Cir NE
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Flagler Ave NEM
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Rock Springs Rd NE
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BarnesdaleWay NE
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Armour Dr NE
Plasters Ave NE
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Westminster Dr NE
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AnsleyPark
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GEORGIAINSTITUTE OFTECHNOLOGY
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
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34
61
43
70
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88
56
38
65
47
74
83
92
54
36
63
45
72
81
90
58
40
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8553
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71
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57
39
66
48
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37
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68
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LegendLease Up
Under Construction
5 Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
Over 65 Multifamily Developments currently Proposed for the Urban
Atlanta Area.
LEASE UP# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units
1 Gables Brookhaven Clarion Partners 4420 Peachtree Rd NE Brookhaven 374
2 Millworks Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1888 Emery St NW Brookwood 345
3 Venue Brookwood Grayco Partners 2144 Peachtree Rd NW Brookwood 249
4 Ardmore & 28th Cocke Finkelstein, Inc. 306 Ardmore Cir NW Brookwood 145
5 AMLI 3464 AMLI Residential Properties, LP 3464 Roxboro Rd NE Buckhead 240
6 Domain at Phipps Plaza Simon Property Group, Inc. 707 Park Ave NE Buckhead 204
7 Fulton Supply Lofts Fulton Supply Lofts Llc 342 Nelson St SW Castleberry Hill 74
8 The Encore Oxford Properties 3290 Cobb Galleria Pky Cumberland 339
9 The Battery - The Residences Atlanta Braves 900 Battery Ave SE Cumberland 81
10 The Metro Audubon Communities 1500 Parkwood Cir SE Cumberland/Galleria 200
11 Green Park Apartments Preferred Apartment Communities 2037 Weems Rd Decatur/North Druid Hills 310
12 The Point on Scott Fuqua Development 2532 N Decatur Rd Decatur/North Druid Hills 250
13 The Reserve at Decatur Atlantic Realty Partners 2600 Milscott Dr Decatur/North Druid Hills 298
14 Accent North Druid Hills Westplan Investors 7 Executive Park Dr NE Decatur/North Druid Hills 310
15 ARLO Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 245 E Trinity Pl Downtown Decatur 210
16 Alexan Glenwood Trammell Crow Residential Company 860 Glenwood Ave SE Grant Park 216
17 AMLI Piedmont Heights AMLI Residential Properties, LP 2323 Piedmont Rd NE Lindbergh-Morosgo 375
18 Elan Lindbergh AVR Realty Company, LLC 741 Morosgo Dr NE Lindbergh-Morosgo 358
19 Azure on the Park Atlantic Realty Partners 1020 Piedmont Ave NE Midtown 329
20 Atlantic House Novare Group 1163 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 407
21 Yoo on The Park The Trillist Companies 207 13th St NE Midtown 245
22 Sixty11th Selig Enterprises, Inc. 60 11th St NE Midtown 320
23 Trace Midtown JLB Partners, LP 782 Peachtree St NE Midtown 290
24 Alta Midtown Wood Partners 915 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 369
25 Modera Morningside AEW Capital Management 1845 Piedmont Ave NE Morningside-Lenox Park 301
26 The Olmsted Chamblee Origin Investments 5193 Peachtree Blvd Norcross-DeKalb 283
27 675 N Highland Abraham Properties & Builders 675 N Highland Ave NE Poncey-Highland 125
28 Station R Greystar Real Estate Partners 144 Moreland Ave NE Reynoldstown 285
29 Alexan Vinings Trammell Crow Residential Company 3330 Cumberland Blvd SE Vinings 232
30 Accent Waterworks Westplan Investors 1390 Northside Dr NW West Midtown 181
31 1824 Defoor First Guaranty Realty Corporation 1824 Defoor Ave NW West Midtown 236
32 The Local On 14th The Carlyle Group 455 14th St NW West Midtown 361
33 Solis Downwood Terwilliger Pappas 3201 Downwood Cir NW West Paces 280
Units 8,822
6 Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
UNDER CONSTRUCTION# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units
34 Millworks Phase II Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1900 Emery St NW Brookwood 164
35 The Whitley Wood Partners 1000 Park Ave NE Buckhead 224
36 Modera Buckhead N C Development Authority Of Fulto 3005 Peachtree Rd NE Buckhead 400
37 Hanover Buckhead Village The Hanover Company 3116 Roswell Rd NW Buckhead 353
38 AMLI Buckhead AMLI Residential Properties, LP 3450 Roxboro Rd NE Buckhead 400
39 Alexan Pharr Road Apartments Trammell Crow Residential Company 361 Pharr Rd NE Buckhead 244
40 Hanover East Paces The Hanover Company 400 Pharr Rd NE Buckhead 375
41 Gables Buckhead Gables Residential 530 E Paces Ferry Rd NE Buckhead 327
42 Domain at Phipps Plaza Phase II Columbus Realty Partners, Ltd. 707 NE Park Ave Buckhead 115
43 The Remington The Benoit Group 954 Hightower Rd NW Carey Park 160
44 Castleberry Park The City of Atlanta 348 Mitchell St SW Castleberry Hill 120
45 The Battery - Parkside Atlanta Braves 2675 Cobb Pky SE Cumberland 211
46 The Battery - The Flats Atlanta Braves 2675 Cobb Pky SE Cumberland 239
47 Modera by Mill Creek - Vinings Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 3205 Cumberland Blvd Cumberland 269
48 The District at Windy Hill Apartments
Kaplan Management Company, Inc 0 Interstate North Pky Cumberland/Galleria 284
49 Alta at Jonquil Wood Partners 1455 Spring St SE Cumberland/Galleria 266
50 Stadium Walk Apartments Brand Properties 4501 Circle 75 Pky SE Cumberland/Galleria 309
51 E.Co Leete Christopher 2615-2661 E College Ave Decatur/North Druid Hills 375
52 Retreat at Mills Creek Housing Authority Of Dekalb County 3220 Mills Creek Cir Decatur/North Druid Hills 80
53 Post Centennial Park MAA 325 Centenial Olympic Park Dr NW Downtown Atlanta 438
54 The Byron Perennial Properties, Inc. 549 Peachtree St NE Downtown Atlanta 65
55 AMLI Decatur Cousins Properties Incorporated 120 W Trinity Pl Downtown Decatur 325
56 Trinity Walk Decatur Housing Authority 421 W Trinity Pl Downtown Decatur 69
57 The Cliftwood Net Lease Alliance 185 Cliftonwood Dr NE Downtown Sandy Springs 248
58 Square One George S. Morgan Development Co., Inc. 6050 Roswell Rd NE Downtown Sandy Springs 203
59 Modera Sandy Springs Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 6125 Roswell Rd NE Downtown Sandy Springs 340
60 The Residences at City Springs The City of Sandy Springs 6300-6400 Bluestone Rd Downtown Sandy Springs 294
61 Broadstone Springs Alliance Residential, LLC 6558 Roswell Rd NE Downtown Sandy Springs 230
62 The George Urban Realty Partners 275 Memorial Dr SE Grant Park 130
63 465 Memorial Dr SE Atlantic Realty Partners 465 Memorial Dr SE Grant Park 227
64 The Kirkwood Avila Real Estate 1910 Bixby St Kirkwood 230
65 Overture Lindbergh Greystar Real Estate Partners 690 Lindbergh Dr NE Lindbergh-Morosgo 190
66 Helios Apartments Catalyst Development Partners, LLC 2470 Cheshire Bridge Rd NE Lindridge-Martin Manor 282
67 Hanover West Peachtree The Hanover Company 1010 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 328
68 AMLI Arts Center AMLI Residential Properties, LP 1240 W Peachtree St Midtown 350
69 1270 Spring Street Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1270 Spring St NW Midtown 259
70 Ascent Midtown Greystar Real Estate Partners 1400 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 328
71 Apogee Midtown The Related Companies 22 14th St NW Midtown 390
72 Alta at the Park Wood Partners 223 12th St Midtown 198
73 Post Midtown Millenium MAA 33 11th St Midtown 356
74 lilli Midtown JPX Works, LLC 693 Peachtree St Midtown 150
75 The Standard Selig Properties 708 Spring St NW Midtown 257
76 Broadstone Midtown Alliance Residential, LLC 811 Juniper St NE Midtown 218
77 Alexan 880 Pope & Land Real Estate 880 W Peachtree St NW Midtown 356
78 Hanover Midtown The Loudermilk Companies 881 Peachtree St NE Midtown 350
7 Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2017 | Atlanta Multifamily | Colliers International
Multifamily Pipeline | Urban Atlanta (cont.) Sources: CoStar Property, MPF Research
UNDER CONSTRUCTION# Name Developer/Owner Address Submarket Units
79 Modera Midtown Mill Creek Residential Trust LLC 95 8th St NW Midtown 435
80 Solis Parkview Phase I Spruce Street Partners 5070 Peachtree Blvd Norcross-DeKalb 303
81 Spoke Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority
1471 La France St NE North Edgewood 224
82 Grant Park Apartments Fairfield Residential 290 Martin Luther King Jr Dr SE Oakland 321
83 Old Fourth Ward Apartments JLB Partners, LP 608 Ralph McGill Blvd NE Old Fourth Ward 231
84 North + Line SWH Residential Partners LLC 695 North Ave NE Old Fourth Ward 228
85 Anthem on Ashley North American Properties 720 Ralph McGill Blvd NE Old Fourth Ward 250
86 Hanover at Perimeter Town Center
The Hanover Company 1140 Hammond Dr NE Perimeter Center 385
87 Palisades Apartments Atlanta Property Group 5901 Peachtree Dunwoody Rd NE Perimeter Center 424
88 The Heights Chastain WSE Property Management LLC 225 Franklin Rd NE Sandy Springs 325
89 Crescent Perimeter Crescent Communities, LLC 5755 Glenridge Dr NE Sandy Springs 320
90 Alexan Peachtree Dunwoody Crow Holdings 6919 Peachtree Dunwoody Rd NE Sandy Springs 236
91 464 Bishop Paces Holdings, LLC 464 Bishop St NW West Midtown 232
92 Westside Heights WSE Property Management LLC 903 Huff Rd NW West Midtown 282
Units 15,922
8 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Office Market Outlook | Colliers International
Copyright © 2016 Colliers International.The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
East Region Multifamily Advisory GroupColliers International | AtlantaPromenade | Suite 8001230 Peachtree Street, NEAtlanta, Georgia | USA+1 404 888 9000
FOR MORE INFORMATIONRon CameronSenior Vice PresidentPrincipal | East Region+1 404 877 9287ron.cameron@colliers.com
Will MathewsSenior Vice PresidentPrincipal | East Region+1 404 877 9285will.mathews@colliers.com
CONTRIBUTORSScott AmosonDirector of Research | Atlanta
Jaime SlocumbTransaction Coordinator | East Region
Chevene King, IIIFinancial Analyst | East Region
Atlanta Submarkets
Units sold since 2011
33,500MORE THAN
Group gross transactional value since 2011
$2.3B
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
20COVERING OVER
STATES