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Copyright © Andrew Scott 2019
Myths of an Ageing Society
Bangkok26.02.19
26.02.19Measuring populat ion ageing: Bridging Research and Policy 1
Copyright © Andrew Scott 2019
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AGEING SOCIETY
More old PeopleAverage Age Increasing
VS
LONGEVITY ECONOMY
How we are ageing is changingYounger for Longer
Two Things Happening
26.02.19Measuring population ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
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Copyright © Andrew Scott 2019
The balance between these two forces dif fers across countries
Each country needs to try and maximize the longevity channel
26.02.19Measuring populat ion ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
Ageing is malleable
- Behaviours
- Policies
- Environment
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Biological Age
Chronological Age
26.02.19Measuring populat ion ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
Copyright © Andrew Scott 2019
• Chronological age a good measure of ageing
• All countries are ageing
• Its about end of life issues
• Young vs old
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Myths
26.02.19Measuring population ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
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CHRONOLOGICAL AGE
Is a purely nominal measure of age. Given malleability of age need focus on real measures e.g biological
Focusing only on chronological age means completely miss the longevity dividend
Means focus only on demographics and not posit ive adjustments
26.02.19Measuring populat ion ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
Copyright © Andrew Scott 2019
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Real
vs
Nominal
Age
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1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012
The New 65
The New 65
26.02.19Measuring populat ion ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
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All Countries are Ageing
If longevity effect is greater than the ageing society effect then countries are getting younger
Ageing society effect raises average mortality rate, longevity effect lowers mortality rate
Balance of the two forces differs across countries depending on the rapidity of the demographic transition
Countries like Japan and China have to invest very heavily in the longevity effect
26.02.19Measuring populat ion ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
Copyright © Andrew Scott 2019
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USA
26.02.19Measuring populat ion ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
Japan
Age vs. Mortality
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USA
26.02.19Measuring populat ion ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
Japan
Mortality vs. Populat ion Shares
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Japan
26.02.19Measuring populat ion ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
Chronological Age vs. Mortality Adjusted AgeUSA
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All of Life Not Just End of Life
Longevity is about a new map of life –new stages and new behaviours
New career paths, new education patterns and new work/life balance
Young vs Old
The young are the future old. Need to prepare a new life course for the young so they age better. Crucial for fast growing emerging markets
Countries with young populations as well as those with old are bothwrestling with longevity issues
26.02.19Measuring populat ion ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
Copyright © Andrew Scott 2019
• Need to ensure that if society ages chronologically but not biologically GDP is unaffected. Age neutrality.
• Move away from idea that ageing is fixed and investigate how its made more malleable in terms of education, careers, employment policies etc.
• Investigate how directed technical change will add another dimension to how ageing affects economy. Better biological ageing limits cost of ageing society, directed technological change will do the same
• Rather than look at how to minimise costs of ageing society how do we maximise dividend from healthier longer lives
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Economic Impact of Ageing vsLongevity
26.02.19Measuring population ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
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• Need better ways of measuring ageing
• Need better understanding of mechanisms of ageing
• Need more focus on policy instruments to improve ageing
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Three Challenges
26.02.19Measuring population ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
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• Malleability of ageing means demography isn’t destiny
• Need to focus on the life course and how we structure time
• Need to move away from chronological sense of age
• Understand better how we can affect the path of ageing
• Disentangle the nominal age effects in our economy
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Conclusion
26.02.19Measuring population ageing: Bridging Research and Policy
Copyright © Andrew Scott 2019
Thank youGet in touch :
ascott@london.edu
@ProfAndrewScott
andrewscott .global
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